Aggregate agriculture Per capita food production across ... · PDF filecrease in average per...
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Aggregate agriculture The growth of global agriculture’s produc- tive potential has so far exceeded population growth, resulting in a steady, albeit slow, in- crease in average per capita food availabil- ity. At the same time, hundreds of millions have suffered from hunger as they were not able to purchase enough food. The production increases necessary to feed a growing world population are unlikely to be triggered by mar- ket forces. Instead, they will require consider- able public investment. Per capita food production across regions kcal/cap/day, 2010 Developed regions 11 741 East Asia 5 888 Latin America & Caribbean 7 807 South Asia 2 962 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 041 Agriculture value added per worker (US$, 2010*) Croatia Korea Saudi Arabia Spain Austria United Kingdom Switzerland Italy Germany Norway Lebanon Belgium Finland Canada Denmark Netherlands United States Sweden France Slovenia 15 100 19 100 20 400 21 800 24 700 26 400 26 700 29 500 31 700 40 700 41 000 42 000 43 800 44 800 45 900 46 000 49 500 51 100 58 100 67 800 Countries with highest values Caloric self-sufficiency ratio (%, 2010) Norway Belgium Haiti Somalia Zimbabwe Dominican Rep. Armenia Netherlands Panama Syria Malaysia Lithuania Hungary Bulgaria Canada New Zealand Ukraine Australia Uruguay Argentina 50.1 50.6 51.0 52.4 53.8 53.8 53.9 54.3 54.4 56.0 145 149 162 171 183 185 193 207 232 273 Countries with highest values Countries with lowest values World indices of food, non-food, crops and livestock production over time (2004-06=100, 1961-2010) 80 85 90 95 100 105 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Crops Food Livestock Non−Food 36
Transcript of Aggregate agriculture Per capita food production across ... · PDF filecrease in average per...
Aggregate agricultureThe growth of global agriculture’s produc-tive potential has so far exceeded populationgrowth, resulting in a steady, albeit slow, in-crease in average per capita food availabil-ity. At the same time, hundreds of millionshave suffered from hunger as they were notable to purchase enough food. The productionincreases necessary to feed a growing worldpopulation are unlikely to be triggered by mar-ket forces. Instead, they will require consider-able public investment.
Per capita food production across regions
kcal/cap/day, 2010
Developed regions 11 741
East Asia 5 888
Latin America & Caribbean 7 807
South Asia 2 962
Sub-Saharan Africa 3 041
Agriculture value added per worker(US$, 2010*)
Croatia
Korea
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Austria
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Italy
Germany
Norway
Lebanon
Belgium
Finland
Canada
Denmark
Netherlands
United States
Sweden
France
Slovenia
15 100
19 100
20 400
21 800
24 700
26 400
26 700
29 500
31 700
40 700
41 000
42 000
43 800
44 800
45 900
46 000
49 500
51 100
58 100
67 800
Countries withhighest values
Caloric self-sufficiency ratio(%, 2010)
Norway
Belgium
Haiti
Somalia
Zimbabwe
Dominican Rep.
Armenia
Netherlands
Panama
Syria
Malaysia
Lithuania
Hungary
Bulgaria
Canada
New Zealand
Ukraine
Australia
Uruguay
Argentina
50.1
50.6
51.0
52.4
53.8
53.8
53.9
54.3
54.4
56.0
145
149
162
171
183
185
193
207
232
273
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
World indices of food, non-food, crops and livestock production over time (2004-06=100, 1961-2010)
80
85
90
95
100
105
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Crops Food Livestock Non−Food
36
Per capita food production (kcal/cap/day, 2010)
No
Dat
a
< 30
00
3000
− 7
000
7000
− 1
2000
1200
0 −
2500
0
> 25
000
37
Sources of growth in crop productionIn the past 50 years or so, global crop produc-tion has expanded threefold. Crop productiongrowth is on account of yield increase and/orexpansion in the area allocated to crops, which- together with increases in cropping intensi-ties, such as multiple cropping and/or short-ening of fallow periods - leads to an expan-sion in the area harvested. Much of the in-crease in world crop production in the past isattributable to yield improvements, but yieldgrowth rates are currently slowing.
Cereal yield growth
1970-1990
1990-2010
% p.a.
Developed 2.04 0.43
East Asia 3.06 1.29
Latin America &Caribbean
1.56 3.19
South Asia 2.38 1.73
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.06 1.29
Cereal yield growth(% p.a., 1992-2010)
Kuwait
Korea, Dem.Rep.
Lesotho
Somalia
Kenya
Moldova
Libya
Mauritania
Jamaica
Australia
Mali
Cambodia
Namibia
Uzbekistan
Zambia
Tajikistan
Morocco
Malawi
South Africa
Mozambique
−3.4
−2.8
−2.2
−2.0
−1.7
−1.3
−1.1
−1.1
−1.0
−0.7
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.3
6.0
6.2
7.2
9.1
9.5
10.8
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Cropland growth(% p.a., 1992-2011)
New Zealand
Portugal
Chile
Colombia
Bulgaria
Honduras
Iraq
Italy
Ecuador
Spain
Mozambique
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Uruguay
Malawi
Sudan
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Bolivia
Mali
−7.7
−2.7
−2.6
−2.2
−1.6
−1.5
−1.4
−1.2
−1.0
−0.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.2
6.4
Countries withhighest values
Countries withlowest values
Sources of crop growth (% p.a., 1961-2010)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Developed East AsiaLatin America& Caribbean
SouthAsia
Sub−SaharanAfrica
Arable land expansion Cropping intensity Yield increases
38
Cereal yield growth (% p.a., 1992-2011)
No
Dat
a
< −1
−1 −
1
2 −
3
4 −
6
> 6
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Trends in the crop sectorThe food crop sector is changing. Althoughcereals continue to be the main source offood supplies, their production is growing ata slower speed, mostly reflecting changing di-ets, even though demand for industrial use hasincreased. The oilcrops sector has been partic-ularly vibrant in recent decades. A similar de-velopment can be observed in the productionof sugar, fruits and vegetables. Growth in theproduction of other food crops, such as pulsesand roots and tubers, has remained relativelystagnant, but remains important for food se-curity in several countries.
Cereal yields
tonnes per ha, 2010
Developed regions 4.5
East Asia 4.9
Latin America & Caribbean 3.4
South Asia 2.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.3
Cereal yields(tonnes per ha, 2010)
Viet Nam
Sweden
Slovenia
China
Chile
Japan
Croatia
Austria
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Denmark
Ireland
New Zealand
Egypt
Germany
United States
Korea
France
Netherlands
Belgium
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.9
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.5
9.0
9.7
Countries withhighest values
Oilcrop yields(tonnes per ha, 2010)
Ireland
Switzerland
Dominican Rep.
Peru
United Kingdom
Denmark
Liberia
Germany
Singapore
Nicaragua
Panama
Thailand
Ecuador
Papua N.Guinea
Guatemala
Indonesia
Honduras
Colombia
Costa Rica
Malaysia
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.6
3.8
4.5
Countries withhighest values
Index of crop production (2004-06=100, 1961-2010)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 2000 2010
Developed East AsiaLatin America&Caribbean
South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa
40
Total cereal production (million tonnes, 2010)
No
Dat
a
< 1
1 −
5
5 −
10
10 −
100
> 10
0
41
Trends in the fisheries sectorFish is an important component in people’s di-ets, providing about 2.9 billion people with al-most 20 percent of their average per capita in-take of animal protein. Capture fisheries con-tinue to dominate world output, but aquacul-ture accounts for a growing percentage of to-tal fish supply. Fishery sectors are particularlyimportant in developing countries, in provid-ing both food and livelihoods. Global marinecapture production is less likely to increase,unless effective management plans are put inplace to rebuild overfished stocks.
Fish production (capture and aquaculture)
Capture Aquaculture
million tonnes, 2009
Developed 23.1 4.1
East Asia 34.3 43.3
Latin America &Caribbean
15.3 1.9
South Asia 7.3 5.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.4 0.3
Fish production (capture)(million tonnes, 2009)
Spain
Canada
Morocco
Malaysia
Mexico
Thailand
Bangladesh
Korea
Viet Nam
Norway
Philippines
Myanmar
Chile
RussianFederation
Japan
India
United States
Indonesia
Peru
China
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.5
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.2
5.1
6.9
15.8
Countries withhighest values
Fish production (aquaculture)(million tonnes, 2009)
Iran
Ecuador
France
Spain
Malaysia
Brazil
Korea
United States
Egypt
Philippines
Myanmar
Japan
Chile
Norway
Bangladesh
Thailand
Indonesia
Viet Nam
India
China
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.7
2.6
3.8
35.1
Countries withhighest values
Fish production (million tonnes, 1970-2009)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Aquaculture Capture
42
Fish production - capture and aquaculture (thousand tonnes, 2009)
No
Dat
a
< 50
50 −
150
150
− 50
0
500
− 30
00
> 30
00
43
Trends in the livestock sectorThe world food economy is being increasinglydriven by the shift of diets towards animal-based products such as meat, milk and dairy.This shift has been particularly strong in devel-oping countries, with the poultry sector under-pinning growth. Agriculture is being affected,not only through the growth of livestock pro-duction, but also through the linkages to othersectors that supply feedingstuffs, such as cropsand fisheries. Globally, livestock productionis the largest user of agricultural land, rais-ing environmental concerns including the im-pact of livestock production systems on cli-mate change.
World meat production growth
%, 1961-2010
Poultry 3.63
Pork 1.96
Beef 1.07
Sheep 1.81
Meat producing countries(million tonnes, 2010)
Philippines
Indonesia
South Africa
Japan
Poland
United Kingdom
Viet Nam
Australia
Italy
Canada
Argentina
Spain
Mexico
France
India
RussianFederation
Germany
Brazil
United States
China
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.3
5.8
5.8
6.3
6.9
8.2
21.3
42.2
80.8
Countries withhighest values
Milk producing countries(million tonnes, 2010)
Sudan
Canada
Australia
Argentina
Mexico
Ukraine
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
Turkey
United Kingdom
New Zealand
France
Germany
Brazil
RussianFederation
Pakistan
China
United States
India
7.7
8.2
9.0
10.5
10.8
11.2
11.3
11.6
12.3
13.6
14.0
17.0
24.2
29.7
31.8
32.1
35.5
41.1
87.5
117
Countries withhighest values
World per capita meat and milk production (kg, 1990-2010)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2010
Milk Meat
44
Meat production (million tonnes, 2010)
No
Dat
a
< 0.
1
0.1
− 0.
5
0.5
− 3
3 −
20
> 20
45
TradeAgricultural trade has become increasinglyimportant to satisfy countries’ food demand.Over the past 50 years, international tradeflows have increased fivefold and now standat unprecedented levels. Despite their as-sumed comparative advantage in agriculture,many low-income developing countries havebecome net importers of food. While the tradebalance does not by itself indicate a negativedevelopment, it does show that several coun-tries are now dependent on the vagaries ofpotentially volatile international markets fortheir food security.
Net food trade (exports-imports) balance byregion
billion dollars, 2009
Developed regions -1 201
East Asia -14 895
Latin America & Caribbean 50 149
South Asia -12 735
Sub-Saharan Africa -9 234
Top food importing countries(billion dollars, 2009)
Malaysia
Poland
United ArabEmirates
Austria
Saudi Arabia
Korea
India
Mexico
Canada
Spain
RussianFederation
Belgium
Italy
Netherlands
France
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
China
Germany
7.6
7.9
7.9
8.4
9.7
10.2
10.8
14.4
17.2
19.0
20.3
23.6
28.2
33.0
34.2
34.6
36.9
50.2
52.4
53.4
Countries withhighest values
Top food exporting countries(billion dollars, 2009)
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Mexico
Poland
Denmark
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Australia
Argentina
Italy
China
Spain
Canada
Belgium
France
Brazil
Germany
Netherlands
United States
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.5
12.5
13.5
13.8
15.2
16.0
16.5
23.4
24.9
26.7
27.5
28.0
38.7
39.2
44.3
48.9
78.1
Countries withhighest values
World food trade (billion dollars, 1995-2010)
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1995 2000 2005 2010
46
Net trade balance in food (billion dollars, 2009)
No
Dat
a
< −2
5
−25
− 0
0 −
5
5 −
15
> 15
47
