AGENDA - PTT PRISM
Transcript of AGENDA - PTT PRISM
AGENDA
THE GREAT FALLOUT REBALANCING THE DAYLIGHT ?
CHAPTER ONE CHAPTER THREECHAPTER TWO
AGENDA
THE GREAT FALLOUT
REBALANCING THE DAYLIGHT
CHAPTER TWO CHAPTER THREE
CHAPTER ONE
UNBELIEVABLE IMPACT OF COVID-19 TO ECONOMY
Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook Oct’20
Wuhan
Degree of Impact
Tourism
Manufacturing
Job Market
The Worst Economic Downturn with 9-12 Trillion $ Loss vs. Pre-Pandemic
130over countries lockdown
Rapid spread compared to SARS (2002) & MERS (2012)
CHAPTER ONE
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS RECOVERY PATTERN
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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Tom Yum
Kung Dot-com
crash
Early 1980s
recession
Early 1990s
recession
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W-ShapeDouble dip
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L-ShapeLong recovery
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V-ShapeQuick Recovery
U-ShapeStagnant before rise
Hamburger
SARS
MERS
-0.1%
The Virus
Recession
-4.4%
CHAPTER ONE
Source : IMF and Wall Street Journal
CHAPTER ONE
POTENTIAL SHAPES OF RECOVERY FROM COVID-19
•Sharp decline,
followed by rapid
recovery
• Stagnant,
recovery slower
than V-shaped
V L
≤ 1 YearDURATION :
Several years
DURATION :
V-SHAPED L-SHAPED
Source : IMF, Wall Street Journal and Brooking Institution
NIKE-SHAPED K-SHAPED
•Recovery longer
than V-shaped but
faster than L-shaped
• Unequal recovery
Richer
Poorer
DURATION :
1-2 years
DURATION :
1 year
AGENDA
REBALANCING
CHAPTER TWO
THE DAYLIGHT
CHAPTER THREE
THE GREAT FALLOUT
CHAPTER ONE
GLOBAL RESPONSES TO THE CRISIS
Industry and
People Response
FACTOR 2:Country ResponseFACTOR 1:
Virus Control ResponseFACTOR 3:
Key Factors To Determine The Shape Of Economy
CHAPTER TWO
Bigger Size of Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Cope with Crisis
FACTOR 1: COUNTRY RESPONSE
Monetary Policy
“Central banks cut rates to almost zero and
aggressively use quantitative easing (QE) program ”
0.25%
INTEREST RATE
0% 0% 3.85%
Balance Sheet
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
FED
ECB
,Trillion $
2009 2020
=
“The record stimulus package to alleviate
the economy impact ”
(close to 12% of global GDP)
The highest stimulus package over
11.7 $ Trillion
1xChinaeconomy
CHAPTER TWO
Source : IMF and Bloomberg
Fiscal Policy
U.S. CARES Act
FACTOR 2: INDUSTRY AND PEOPLE RESPONSE
Self-sufficiency with adaptability
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20
Domestic Flight
2006 2010 2014 2018
“Concentrate more on high growth sector”
% Contribution to GDP
Manufacturing
Service
International Flight
China
Flight YoY Growth
“COVID-19 boosts digital adoption in various
aspect of business especially online platform”
Digital Platform
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
4.0
Global E-Commerce (Trillion USD)
0.7
Health Personal caresElectronics
Stronger sales during COVID-19 led by
CHAPTER TWO
Source : IMF, World Bank and FGE
CHAPTER TWO
FACTOR 3: VIRUS CONTROL RESPONSE
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Taiwan
Thailand
China
India
U.S.
Number of Deaths by COVID-19
“Adoption of Digital healthcare technology”
The Lowest Death Rate Country
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Q1'18 Q3'18 Q1'19 Q3'19 Q1'20 Q3'20
V-Shaped Recovery for Taiwan
“The low impact from COVID-19 to the
Taiwan’s economy”
Taiwan’s GDP Growth YoY
Faster Virus Control, Faster Economic RecoverySource : Bloomberg
CHAPTER TWO
CHINA’S ECONOMY OUTLOOKKey Factors for Economic Recovery
2018 2019 2020
China’s GDP Growth YoY
+4.9%Q3’20
Key Economic Indicators (%)
Tourism
Manufacturing
Retail Sales
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20
Dec-19 Jun-20
Dec-19 Jun-20
V-Shaped Recovery for China’s Economy on Effective Virus Control
Stimulus package
and Low interest rate
FACTOR 1:
Recovered retail and
manufacturing sector
FACTOR 2:
Effective virus control
FACTOR 3:
Source : Bloomberg
CHAPTER TWO
U.S. ECONOMY OUTLOOKKey Factors for Economic Recovery
-2.9%Q3’20
2018 2019 2020
U.S’s GDP Growth YoYKey Economic Indicators (%)
Retail Sales
Dec-19 Jun-20
Dec-19 Jun-20
Manufacturing
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20
Nike-Shaped Recovery for U.S. Economy on Not Effective in Virus Control
Stimulus package
and easing monetary policy
FACTOR 1:
Strong retail
sales growth
FACTOR 2:
Record high virus infection
FACTOR 3:
Source : Bloomberg
AGENDA
THE DAYLIGHTCHAPTER THREE:
CHAPTER THREE
ECONOMIC RECOVERY SHAPE FOR 2022-2025
China
V-shaped
≈ 6%U.S.
Nike-shaped
≈ 2%
% Share of global economy
2 PLAYERS
vs. 1.0%(2018-21)
vs. 5.7%(2018-21)
L-shaped : 1-2%
Virus Control later than 2022
CHAPTER THREE
THE BRIGHT PROSPECT FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY
5.24.2 3.8 3.6 3.53.3 3.8 3.5
2.8
-4.4
Nike-shaped : 3-4%
Low Virus transmission by end 2022
World GDP Growth (% YoY)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
“Global stimulus policy and easing monetary policy with focus on growth sector”
Source : IMF
“IN THE MIDST OF EVERY CRISIS,
LIES GREAT OPPORTUNITY”
Albert Einstein