Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative...

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Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 1 2 Moving average Exponential smoothing Associate forecast Purposes : Understanding the techniques of forecasting Introducing the product and service design Design 3 Definition Necessities Approaches

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Transcript of Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative...

Page 1: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design

Forecasting control

Qualitative methods

Quantitative methods

Forecasting methodsForecasting methodsReview of week 5Review of week 5

1 2

Moving average

Exponential smoothing

Associate forecast

Purposes : Understanding the techniques of forecasting Introducing the product and service design

DesignDesign

3

Definition

Necessities

Approaches

Page 2: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Review of Week V. Forecasting

Purposes : Understanding the process and techniques of forecasting

Forecasting controlForecasting control Forecasting methodsForecasting methods

21

Qualitative methods

Quantitative methodsAveraging

MAD

MSE

MAPE

Page 3: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Weighted Moving Average

The most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a

forecast The choice of weights, w, is somewhat arbitrary and involves some trial and error

Ft wn At n wn 1At (n 1) ... w1At 1

where

wt weight for period t, wt 1 weight for period t 1, etc.

At the actual value for period t, At 1 the actual value for period t 1, etc.

Page 4: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Exponential Smoothing

A weighted averaging method that is based on the previous forecast plus a

percentage of the forecast error

Ft Ft 1 (At 1 Ft 1)

where

Ft Forecast for period t

Ft 1 Forecast for the previous period

= Smoothing constant

At 1 Actual demand or sales from the previous period

Page 5: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Associative Forecasting Techniques

Home values may be related to such factors as home and property size, location, number

of bedrooms, and number of bathroomsAssociative techniques are based on the development of an equation that summarizes the effects

of predictor variables Predictor variables - variables that can be used to predict values of the variable of interest

Page 6: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Simple Linear Regression

Regression - a technique for fitting a line to a set of data points Simple linear regression - the simplest form of regression that involves a linear

relationship between two variablesThe object of simple linear regression is to obtain an equation of a straight line that minimizes

the sum of squared vertical deviations from the line (i.e., the least squares criterion)

Page 7: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Chapter 4

Product and Service Design

Page 8: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Reasons Design or Re-Design

The driving forces for product and service design or redesign are market opportunities or threats:

Economic Social and Demographic Political, Liability, or Legal Competitive Cost or Availability Technological

Page 9: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Key Questions

Is there a demand for it? Market size Demand profile

Can we do it? Manufacturability - the capability of an organization to produce an item at an acceptable profit

Serviceability - the capability of an organization to provide a service at an acceptable cost or profit

Page 10: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Key Questions (contd.)

What level of quality is appropriate? Customer expectations Competitor quality Fit with current offering

Does it make sense from an economic standpoint? Liability issues, ethical considerations, sustainability issues, costs and profits

Page 11: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Legal Considerations

Legal ConsiderationsProduct liability

The responsibility a manufacturer has for any injuries or damages caused by as faulty product

Some of the concomitant costsLitigationLegal and insurance costsSettlement costsCostly product recallsReputation effects

Uniform Commercial CodeUnder the UCC, products carry an implication of merchantability and fitness

Page 12: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Normative Behavior

Produce designs that are consistent with the goals of the organizatione.g., Do not compromise on quality, or cut corners, even in areas that are not

apparent to the customer

Give customers the value they expect

Make health and safety a concernDo not place employees, customers, or third parties at risk because of faulty

products and services

Page 13: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Sustainability

SustainabilityUsing resources in ways that do not harm ecological systems that support

human existence

Key aspects of designing for sustainabilityLife cycle assessmentReduction of costs and materials usedRe-using parts of returned productsRecycling

Page 14: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

LCA The assessment of the environmental impact of a product or service throughout its useful life

Focuses on such factors as Global warming Smog formation Oxygen depletion Solid waste generation

LCA procedures are part of the ISO 14000 environmental management procedures

http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_14000_essentials
Page 15: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Reduce: Costs and Materials

Value analysisExamination of the function of parts and materials in an effort to reduce the

cost and/or improve the performance of a productCommon questions used in value analysis

Could a less expensive part of material be used?

Is the function necessary?

Can the function of two or more parts be performed by a single part?

Can a part be simplified?

Could product specifications be relaxed?

Could standard parts be substituted for non-standard parts?

Page 16: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Re-Use: Remanufacturing

Remanufacturing Refurbishing used products by replacing worn-out or defective components

Can be performed by the original manufacturer or another company

Design for disassembly (DFD)Designing a product to that used products can be easily taken apart

Page 17: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Recycle

RecyclingRecovering materials for future use

Applies to manufactured partsAlso applies to materials used during production

Why recycle?Cost savingsEnvironmental concernsEnvironmental regulations

Design for recycling (DFR)Product design that takes into account the ability to disassemble a used product to recover the recylcable parts

Page 18: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Product or service life stages

Page 19: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Standardization

Standardization Extent to which there is an absence of variety in a product, service, or process

Page 20: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Designing for Mass Customization

Mass customization A strategy of producing basically standardized goods or services, but incorporating some

degree of customization in the final product or service

Facilitating TechniquesDelayed differentiation

Modular design

Page 21: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Delayed Differentiation

Delayed Differentiation The process of producing, but not quite completing, a product or service until customer

preferences are known

It is a postponement tactic

Produce a piece of furniture, but do not stain it; the customer chooses the

stain

Page 22: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Modular Design

Modular DesignA form of standardization in which component parts are grouped into modules that are easily replaced or interchanged

Advantageseasier diagnosis and remedy of failures

easier repair and replacement

simplification of manufacturing and assembly

DisadvantagesLimited number of possible product configurations

Limited ability to repair a faulty module; the entire module must often be scrapped

Page 23: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Reliability

Reliability The ability of a product, part, or system to perform its intended function under a prescribed set of conditions

FailureSituation in which a product, part, or system does not perform as intended

Normal operating conditionsThe set of conditions under which an item’s reliability is specified

Page 24: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Robust Design

Robust design A design that results in products or services that can function over a broad range of

conditions

Pertains to product as well as process designConsider the following automobiles:

Ferrari 599 Toyota Avalon

» Which is design is more robust?

Page 25: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Degree of Newness

Product or service design changes:Modification of an existing product or serviceExpansion of an existing product line or service offeringClone of a competitor’s product or serviceNew product or service

The degree of change affects the newness of the product or service

to the market and to the organizationRisks and benefits?

Page 26: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Concurrent Engineering

Concurrent engineering Bringing engineering design and manufacturing personnel together early in the design

phaseAlso may involve marketing and purchasing personnel

Views of suppliers and customers may also be sought

Page 27: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Component Commonality

When products have a high degree of similarity in features and

components, a part can be used in multiple products

Benefits:Savings in design timeStandard training for assembly and installationOpportunities to buy in bulk from suppliersCommonality of parts for repairFewer inventory items must be handled

Page 28: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

The House of Quality

Relationshipmatrix

Design requirements

Specificationsor

target values

Correlationmatrix

Competitiveassessment

Customerrequirements

Page 29: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Kano Model

Basic qualityRefers to customer requirements that have only limited effect on customer satisfaction if present, but lead to dissatisfaction if absent

Performance qualityRefers to customer requirements that generate satisfaction or dissatisfaction in proportion to their level of functionality and appeal

Excitement qualityRefers to a feature or attribute that was unexpected by the customer and causes excitement

Page 30: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Service Design Definitions

Service Something that is done to, or for, a customer

Service delivery system The facilities, processes, and skills needed to provide a service

Product bundle The combination of goods and services provided to a customer

Page 31: Agenda of Week VI. Forecasting and Design Forecasting control Qualitative methods Quantitative methods Forecasting methods Review of week 5 12

Service Design

Begins with a choice of service strategy, which determines the nature and focus of

the service, and the target market Key issues in service design

Degree of variation in service requirements

Degree of customer contact and involvement


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