Agency(for(Natural(Resourcesand(Energy Emerging...

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

Emerging economies continue to drive global energy

demand �

Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario �

Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, �with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth �

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mtoe

China India Other developing Asia Russia Middle East Rest of world OECD

1 �

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011


Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important�

World primary energy demand�

Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds �of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035 �

AddiGonal to 2035

2010

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear

Mtoe

2 �



The overall value of subsidies to renewables is set to rise �

Renewable subsidies of $66 billion in 2010 (compared with $409 billion for fossil fuels), need to climb to $250 billion in 2035 as rising deployment outweighs improved

competitiveness �

Biofuels

Electricity

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Billion

dollars (2

010)

3 �



4 �


Medium term Renewable Growth led by non-OECD�

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TWh Global renewable electricity production and forecast

OECD Americas OECD Asia-Oceania OECD EuropeChina Brazil India Rest of non-OECD

5 �Source: IEA Renewable Energy Medium-‐term Market Report


Non-hydro technology deployment spreads out�

0

20

40

60

80

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean

Number of countries with installedcapacity above 100 MW

Non-OECD

OECD



Medium-term solar PV outlook�

n  Global capacity will triple to 230 GW in 2017 (conserva9ve)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GW Global solar PV capacity forecast

Germany China US Japan Italy RoW



Medium-term CSP outlook �

n  Global capacity will grow six-‐fold to 11 GW in 2017

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GW Global CSP capacity forecast

US Spain China India Morocco RoW8 �Source: IEA Renewable Energy Medium-‐term Market Report


Japan’s Primary Energy Demand �

Energy demand in Japan will hit a peak by 2015 and take a downward turn. While fossil fuel would continue to be the dominant energy source, nuclear power and renewables will increase their shares of the market. �

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20302035

Mto

e

Other renewables

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Oil

The New Policies Scenario: IEA’s central scenario; it takes account of both exisGng government policies and declared policy intenGons.

9 �



11%

0%

15%

22%

0%

22%

0%

0%

16%

0%

17%

30%

17%

8%

0%

10%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

IEA

Korea

Luxembourg

Japan

Belgium

France

Ireland

Slovak Republic

Spain

Italy

Switzerland

Portugal

Hungary

Germany

Turkey

Finland

Austria

Greece

Sweden

Czech Republic

United Kingdom

Poland

United States

Netherlands

New Zealand

Renewables Fossil fuels Nuclear

Energy Self-sufficiency Ratio and Energy Mix�

n  Nuclear energy is an important op;on on energy mix for countries which have low energy self-‐sufficiency ra;o, namely which have scarce domes;c energy resource.

Self sufficiency =inland production / tpes (2010 estimates)

10 �

Source: IEA


0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

叹叻吐呀呉吠

吢吼呎吏呎呀呉吠

吥呂叽叾呎

吐叽叾呎吞呉

吁呎吐吟呁叹

听叺呉呀呉吠

吴呂吟吃呂

吘呁吐叻吐

吞呉吵呎吆

吂吡吗

叿吐吟吢叹

吐呄吰吢叹

吐吱叻呉

吟呂吊

吸各后吊

叻吖呁叹

吠叻君

听呀呉吐

否呉吃呁呎

吅呁后吺

吴呎呀呉吠

吐呄吧各叹

吘叾吊

叹吸呁吂

吁呎吐吟呀呁叹

叻吐呀叿呂

吰呂吅呎

叹叻呂呀呉吠

吁呀呉吗

叻吅呁吐

日本呂吆吒呉吭呂吆

韓国

水力風力地熱太陽光その他* 可燃物・ごみ**

Share of Renewables in Primary Energy Supply �

Share of renewables in Japan’s primary energy supply is compara;vely lower among IEA member countries.

In 2010 * Including Tidal, wave and ocean power ** Such as biomass, biogas, renewable waste

11 �

Water power

Wind power

Geo-‐thermal PV, etc * CombusGbles/Waste**

Iceland

New

Zealand

Norw

ay Sw

eden

Austria Finland

Portugal Chile

Switzerland

Denmark

Canada Estonia Slovenia Spain

Turkey Mexico

Italy Germ

any France

Hungary Greece

Poland

Slovakia Czech

United States

Australia Israel Belgium

Ireland

Netherland

United Kingdom

Luxembourg

Korea

Japan

Source: IEA

M E T I Agency for Natural Resources and Energy

1) This data shows electricity supply from faciliGes accredited by the RPS Law. Electric energy before the RPS Law was enacted, electric energy generated by faciliGes that are not currently accredited by the RPS Law, and electric energy that is generated by faciliGes accredited by the RPS Law and consumed in-‐house are not included in this data.

2) Photovoltaic faciliGes that have been covered by the surplus electricity purchase system since November 2009 are calculated as specific PV.

Long-‐term change in total supply from power-‐genera9ng facili9es of new energy, etc. (100 million kWh)

n Since the introducGon of the RPS system in 2003, electric power supply by renewable energy has doubled.

n Moreover, since the surplus electricity purchase system was introduced in 2009, the introducGon of residenGal photovoltaic power generaGon has largely increased.

Changes in Electric Power Supply by Renewable Energy

Beginning of purchasing residenGal surplus electricity

12

FY 2003

FY 2004

FY 2005

FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2010

Wind

Wind

Wind

Wind

Wind

Wind

Wind

Wind

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Hydraulic

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

Biomass

PV

PV

PV

PV

PV

PV

PV

PV

Beginning of RPS System

ResidenGal PV

ResidenGal PV


Basic Mechanism of the Feed-‐in Tariff Scheme�

n Under the feed-‐in tariff scheme, if a renewable energy producer requests an electric uGlity to sign a contract to purchase electricity at a fixed price and for a long-‐term period guaranteed by the government, the electric uGlity is obligated to accept this request.

　　　　　　　　

Electric uGlity

Purchase of electricity at a fixed price for a government

guaranteed period

Sale of electricity produced from renewable energy

sources Electricity supply

CollecGon of surcharge together with the electricity charge

・Approval of faciliGes (Government confirms whether the facility can generate electricity stably and efficiently. The approval is cancelled when the facility no longer saGsfies the requirements.)

Special commigee for determinaGon of tariff s and duraGons

Electricity customers

Those who generate power at home

Government

Solar PV

Small-‐ and medium-‐

scale hydraulic power

Wind power

Geothermal power

Biomass

Those engaged in the power generaGon business using renewable energy sources

Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry

Opinion on tariffs and duraGon

Deciding tariffs and duraGons, respecGng the opinion of the special commigee (every fiscal year)

Decision of surcharge unit price per kWh (every fiscal year)

Surcharge adjustment organizaGon (organizaGon to

collect and distribute the surcharge)

Submission of the collected surcharge

Payment for the purchase cost

13 �


n  EsGmaGng based on officially announced projects and recent trend, approximately 2.5GW renewable energy faciliGes would be installed in this fiscal year.（Currently about 19.45GW renewable capacity expects to increase to about 22GW.)

14 �

　Renewable Energy Forecast (FY2012) �

Already installed capacity by FY2011

Forecast of newly installed capacity in FY2012

Residen9al PV Approx. 4GW + Approx 1.5GW （40% increase from new installaGon in 2011)

Non-‐Residen9al PV Approx. 0.8GW +Approx 0.5GW （EsGmate by METI）

Wind Approx. 2.5GW ＋Approx 0.38GW （50 % increase from recent annual installaGon)

Small and Medium scaled hydro （1MW to 3MW）

Approx. 9.35GW ＋Approx 0.02GW （EsGmate by METI）

Small and Medium scaled hydro （Less than 1MW）

Approx. 0.2GW ＋Approx 0.01GW （50 % increase from recent annual installaGon)

Biomass Approx. 2.1GW ＋Approx 0.09GW （50 % increase from recent annual installaGon)

Geothermal Approx. 0.5GW ＋0GW

Total

Approx. 19.45GW ＋Approx 2.5GW

＜Renewable energy installa9on forecast in FY 2012＞


InnovaGve Strategy for Energy and the Environment (Outline) (1)�

15 �

1. RealizaGon of a society not dependent on nuclear power (1) 3 guiding principles towards realizaGon of a society not dependent on nuclear power

(2) 5 policies towards realizaGon of a society not dependent on nuclear power

(3) Review of the path towards a society not dependent on nuclear power

○3 guiding principles •  Strictly apply the sGpulated rules regarding forty-‐year limitaGon of the operaGon. • Restart the operaGon of nuclear power plants once the Nuclear Regulatory Commission gives safety assurance. •  Not to plan the new and addiGonal construcGon of a nuclear power plant. ○The Government will mobilize all possible policy resources to such a level as to even enable zero operaGon of nuclear power plants in the 2030’s. As its first step, the “Framework for Green Development Policy” by the end of this year.

○The nuclear fuel cycle policy ○Maintaining and strengthening human resources and technology ○CooperaGon with the internaGonal community ○Strengthening measures for local areas with nuclear power faciliGes ○Systems of nuclear power projects and the liability system for nuclear-‐related damages

○Review and constantly re-‐examine the path towards realizaGon of a society not dependent on nuclear power in order to be sufficiently flexible and responsive to any unforeseen changes in the future


InnovaGve Strategy for Energy and the Environment (Outline) (2)�

16 �

2. RealizaGon of green energy revoluGon

3. For ensuring stable supply of energy

5. Steady implementaGon of global warming countermeasures (Formulate the “Global Warming AcGon Plan” for the period from aoer 2013 by the end of this year)

4. Bold implementaGon of reform of electric power system (Compose the Strategy for the “Reform of Electricity Power Systems (tentaGve)” by the end of this year)

○Disclose informaGon in a detailed manner through a process that will sufficiently ensure transparency and review and constantly re-‐examine them

○Compose the “Framework for Green Development Policy” by the end of this year. ○Electricity Saving: Reduce more than 110BWh by FY 2030 ○Energy Saving: Reduce more than 72 million kl by FY 2030 ○Renewables: Develop more than 300BWh by FY 2030 (All compared with FY 2010)

○Intensive use of thermal power generaGon ○Intensive use of heat such as the introducGon of co-‐generaGon systems of 150 BWh ○Technologies related to the next generaGon energy ○Stable and inexpensive securement and supply of fossil fuels


17 �

Source:　資源エネルギー庁、電気事業連合会、電力系統利用協議会、　ＩＥＡ算定

Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku

Kyushu Shikoku

Chubu Okinawa

Hydro

Oil

Gas Nuclear

Coal

Other Power uGlity company

GeneraGng company In-‐house generaGon

　Power grid in Japan �


Power Grid Connection in Europe

Source: IEA “Electricity InformaGon 2010” IndicaGve value for Net Transfer CapaciGes (NTC) in ConGnental Europe 18 �

UK Max. Capacity

75.5GW

Spain Max. Capacity

93.5GW

Italy Max. Capacity

93.1GW Austria Max. Capacity

18.9GW

Switzerland Max. Capacity

17.9GW

Germany Max. Capacity 129.1GW

France Max. Capacity 110.9GW

Belgium Max. Capacity

15.8GW

Netherland Max. Capacity

19.8GW

Norway Max. Capacity

29.8GW

Sweden Max. Capacity

32.6GW

3.6GW

3.9GW

0.6GW

0.6GW

3GW

3.6GW

2.4GW

2.4GW

2.7GW

3.2GW

2GW

2GW

3.2GW 3.5GW

1.5GW

1.2GW

2GW 0.5GW

0.3GW 4.2GW

1.8GW

1.1GW

2.6GW

0.5GW

1.3GW

1GW

0.2GW

2.2GW

: Maximum Capacity

: Maximum interchange power


Agricultural Land Act Agricultural Land Promo9on Act

MAFF Allowing Type 1 agricultural land that is no longer being farmed to be used for renewable energy genera9on

Currently, private-‐sector companies other than the na9on’s nine electric power u9li9es are not allowed to u9lize large areas of Type 1 agricultural land for non-‐farming purposes.

Na9onal Forests Act Public Accoun9ng Act

Forestry Agency Ministry of Finance

Allowing private-‐sector electric power companies and geothermal steam-‐produc9on companies to rent sate-‐owned forest or moorland

Currently, private-‐sector companies other than the na9on’s nine electric power u9li9es are not allowed to conclude discre9onary contracts for the ren9ng of areas in na9onal forests for purposes that are not classified as public works.

Forest Act Forestry Agency

Delis9ng protected forests and laying down concrete rules for the gran9ng of licenses to use such forests for energy projects

Procedures for the delis9ng of protected forests oden do not proceed because local authori9es are unwilling to take ac9on due to a lack of precedents, and because the central government strictly requires the submission of proof that there are no other suitable candidate sites for development.

Natural Parks Act

Ministry of the Environment

Ending the prohibi9on of surveying and drilling within special areas in na9onal parks for the purpose of using geothermal energy to generate electric power

In special areas within na9onal and quasi-‐na9onal parks, geothermal energy development projects are effec9vely prohibited.

Hot Springs Law Ministry of the Environment

Redrading the drilling permission standards on a strict scien9fic basis

The meaning of the statement found within the standards for gran9ng licenses to drill for hot spring resources–“when it is deemed that [the drilling] will affect the volume of steam released by the hot spring resources, the temperature of the resources, and/or their mineral cons9tuents”–is unclear, and consequently permission is seldom granted.

Factory Loca9on Act METI

Exemp9ng photovoltaic power genera9on site from applica9on of the area restric9ons applied to produc9on facili9es, and revising the greenery set-‐aside requirements

Because photovoltaic power genera9on sites are classified as “produc9on facili9es,” the regula9ons allow the photovoltaic panels to be laid on only up to 50% of the total site area, and the developer must also set aside a certain percentage of the land for greenery.

Fire Service Act

Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communica9ons

Amending the regula9ons the Fire Service Act with respect to lithium-‐ion baneries

The electroly9c solu9on used in baneries is classed as a dangerous substance under the law, and thus in the event of the storage or installa9on of baneries above a certain volume limit, the owners are required to take an9-‐fire measures (such as construc9ng fire walls) out of all propor9on to any actual poten9al danger.

Building Standards Act

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

Crea9on of a system regula9ng the construc9on of offshore wind farms (debate on the appropriate structural criteria)

The structural criteria that developers of offshore wind farms are required to apply (structural strength, rollover resistance, etc.) are unclear.

Type of regula9on/related legisla9on　

Regula9o

ns on Loca9o

n Safety

Regula9o

ns

Issues rela9ng to deregula9on and systems

Deregula9on and systemic issues that need to be addressed in order to popularize the use of renewable energy�

19 �

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Summary

n  In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & popula9on will push energy needs higher

n  Concerning primary energy demand, renewables are the most incremental among energy sources. Along with this, subsidies for renewables will increase.

n  Global solar power genera9on (PV+CSP) will more than triple by 2017

n  Introduc9on of renewables will accelerate in Japan owing to the FIT scheme.

n  Challenges for Japan to further disseminate renewables are: Reinforcement of power grid and deregula9ons

20 �

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