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IAC-08-A4.2.6

PLANNING FOR CONTACT:

FANTASY DOCUMENTS OR GUIDELINES FOR ACTION?

Albert A. Harrison

University of California Davis, USA

aaharrison@ucdavis.edu

ABSTRACT

This paper begins with a review of three potentially useful strategies for anticipating

human reaction to the discovery of extraterrestrial life. Since the 1960s, researchers have

looked to historical precedents or analogues (such as Europeans arriving in the Americas)

for guidance. Do these past events offer useful prototypes or give rise to ―fantasy

documents‖ that have only an illusion of relevance? The choice of analogues, explicit

recognition of differences between analogues and future events, and the careful

qualification of findings increase the usefulness of this method. Survey research is a

potentially powerful tool, but many of the most publicized surveys that touch upon life in

the universe are of marginal relevance because they were designed to promote sensational

television programs. Still, past surveys can be mined for useful data and funding for

surveys dedicated to astrobiology and SETI would be very useful. Scenarios are carefully

constructed narratives about possible futures. Whereas no scenario will capture the actual

future, thinking through the issues may reduce the ―surprise‖ factor and facilitate

appropriate action as the actual future unfolds. We identify four scenarios relevant to

SETI and propose a wiki as a platform for scenario development.

Interest in the human response to

extraterrestrial life has waxed and waned

over the centuries, but gained new

significance after scientists established the

feasibility of interstellar communication. 1, 2

Project Ozma, the first radiotelescope

search, influenced the 1961 Brookings

Report on the peaceful uses of outer space.3

Commissioned by NASA, led by

psychologist Donald Michael, and prepared

by a large team of experts and consultants,

most of the report focused on topics such as

communications satellites that were

__________________________

© Copyright 2008 by the International

Astronautical Federation. All rights

reserved.

futuristic at the time but are commonplace

today. Dismayed by a long history of

misunderstandings and conflicts when

radically different terrestrial cultures

encountered each other, the report urged

ongoing studies to prepare humanity for

the discovery of extraterrestrial life. The

recommendation was taken to heart, and

over the years many workshops, papers

and books have grappled with the

psychological, societal, and cultural

implications of the search for

extraterrestrial life.1,2,4-9

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This paper briefly discusses three research

methods for informing such discussions:

historical precedents or analogues, survey

research, and scenario planning. It then

proposes a Web-based wiki as a useful

planning device.

LESSONS FROM HISTORY

Politicians, military leaders, corporate

executives and other leaders look to the

past for solutions to today’s problems.

Crucial decisions involving war and

peace, the fate of massive welfare

programs and efforts to contain pandemics

have all rested in part on perceptions of

past situations, choices, and outcomes.

Analogies or ―analogues,‖ which involve

close parallels or similarities between

earlier and contemporary or anticipated

(target) events have been of particular use.

For example, the results of ―appeasement‖

prior to World War II toughened the

stance of postwar negotiators, and strong

parallels between the Spanish Influenza of

1919 and the later Swine Flu led U.S.

President Ford to order a crash inoculation

program in 1976.10

Historical analogues play a prominent role

in discussions of anticipated space age

events. Studies conducted in ―spaceflight

analogous‖ settings such as polar outposts,

underwater research vessels and remote

industrial and military sites offer insights

for supporting astronauts and cosmonauts

on extended duration flights.11,12

Past

experience with hurricanes, earthquakes,

tsunamis, and other disasters gives us a

starting point, at least, for addressing

behavioral and policy aspects of

protecting Earth from the threat of asteroid

and comet impacts. And, to gain insights

on the psychological, societal and cultural

effects of the discovery of extraterrestrial

life, researchers sought historical

analogues for inspiration.1-5

Certainly one of the most obvious

analogues is the arrival of the English,

Spaniards and other Europeans in Africa

and the Americas during the Age of

Exploration. Here, the technologically

advanced Europeans are the precursors of

the extraterrestrials, while humans are cast

as the technologically disadvantaged and

perhaps overawed natives. As Steven Dick

points out, the transmission of ideas from

culture to culture is a more useful

analogue given that under the standard

SETI detection scenario we expect

communication without physical contact.1

A good prototype here is the transmission

of the beginnings of modern mathematics

from India through the mid-East to

Europe. Among other things, by giving us

a quantitative basis for estimating odds,

this new knowledge stimulated a whole

new way for thinking about the future.13

We should adopt a broad view of history,

including not only inscribed tablets and

yellowing documents, but also

contemporary archives, such as today’s

newspaper and recent posting to the World

Wide Web.

Also interesting are episodes where

significant numbers of people believed

that humans had found extraterrestrial

life.5 These include a period in the 1840s

when readers of a widely circulated New

York newspaper reported that an

astronomer had discovered ―bat men‖ on

the Moon, and, a few decades later,

widespread acceptance of the idea that

astronomers had found evidence of a

dying civilization on Mars. Orson Welles’

1938 War of the Worlds broadcast led

some radio listeners to believe that an

alien invasion had begun. This is

memorable because of widespread and

overstated media accounts of panic.5 Then,

in 1947 a newspaper announced that the

United States Air Force had retrieved a

flying saucer in New Mexico. This

produced no discernible immediate

reaction (perhaps because the

announcement was immediately retracted)

but years later gave rise to the persistent

and resilient Roswell myth.14

In the 1960s,

scientists thought briefly that quasars and

pulsars might be intelligently controlled

interstellar beacons. More recently, there

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was an erroneous news report that radio

astronomers detected an extraterrestrial

signal.

Richard Neustadt and Ernest R. May point

out that analogues differ in terms of the

allure that they have for their beholder.10

The most powerful analogues, those that

seem immediately obvious to everyone,

are classified as ―irresistible.‖ Because of

the congruence between the claim that

radioastronomers had a confirmed

detection and the way an actual SETI

detection was likely to occur, this

analogue seems irresistible and it is

tempting to take the muted (if even

perceptible) public response to the

erroneous news report as a good

approximation of responses to a real SETI

detection. Somewhat less compelling but

still easy to grasp are ―captivating‖

analogues. Perhaps many people would

see the War of the Worlds broadcast as

captivating. After all, here was a situation

where many people thought that the

Martians had landed and the (inaccurate)

news reports fit in with popular notions of

panic. Finally, there are merely

―seductive‖ analogues: like the ―boy or

girl next door‖ they do not necessarily

leap to mind but, over time, become more

interesting. The transmission of ideas from

culture to culture may fall into this

category.

The most alluring analogues, note

Neustadt and May, are not necessarily the

best analogues.10

We should continually

ask ourselves why particular analogues are

attractive. Analogues that seem

compelling at first may later fall apart. For

example, despite the initially powerful

resemblance between the Spanish and

Swine flu epidemics the latter was

nowhere near as lethal; the crash

inoculation program in 1976 was not only

unnecessary but had many unfortunate

economic, political, and legal

consequences. Government authorities

then lacked sufficient time to develop a

firm knowledge base and carefully review

their options.

In some areas historical precedents seem

useless; despite powerful motivation and

at least two hundred years of carefully

recorded data we are still reduced to

guessing when it comes to forecasting the

value of common stocks. Successful fund

managers are those who have had a good

run of luck, and for everyone who has

achieved great wealth there are many who

remain in modest circumstances or who

are financially ruined.13

As for SETI

analogues we have relatively few data

points, mostly from earlier times involving

cultures that differ significantly from their

modern counterparts. Given that analysts

equipped with powerful computers and

millions of data points cannot predict the

value of a given investment, can we hope

to do better on the basis of a small handful

of cases?

In his discussion of ―fantasy documents,‖

sociologist Lee Clarke’s warns that

analogues may have only a superficial,

even deceptive relationship to a target

event and prove useless for any practical

purpose.15

He illustrates this by noting

that, over the years, U. S. civil defense

planners proposed building shelters that

would protect people from atomic blast

and fallout but had to abandon this

strategy when more potent H-bombs came

on line, boosting the costs of shelters to

unacceptable levels. Later, authorities

decided that evacuation would keep

people alive. Just as they could evacuate

beach communities on the shores of Long

Island, New York in the face of an

impending hurricane, they could move

people from Manhattan to Albany just

before the bombs fell. Protecting people

from nuclear conflagration, officials

would have us believe, is not that different

from protecting them from natural

disasters.

Using a hurricane as a prototype for a

nuclear attack creates an ―affinity‖

between the two events. Implicitly, we

assume that our experience with

hurricanes, which is considerable, offers

protection from modern thermonuclear

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war, a type of catastrophe that we have yet

to experience. The superficial similarities

between the two events—hurricanes and

nuclear attacks—at once creates the

illusion that the plan is based on

experience and diverts attention from the

tremendous differences between them.

Hurricanes cannot strike within thirty

minutes of their detection, cannot be

retargeted to annihilate populations that

have moved elsewhere, and do not lead to

nuclear winters.

Thus, fantasy documents are plans

developed without a firm knowledge base.

Certainly, preparing to encounter creatures

whose psychology and culture are not

known to us is another area where

planning must proceed under conditions of

high uncertainty. Are the historical cases

that we choose useful analogues or

misleading affinities?

Certain safeguards should minimize the

role of fantasy in planning documents.

When turning to history for advice we

should have clearly formulated questions

and get the facts straight. For example, are

widespread images of panic and social

chaos following natural or technological

disasters factual or based on media-fed

stereotypes? Sociological research

suggests the second alternative is more

likely.16

Neustadt and May recommend separating

assumptions, facts, and uncertainties.10

They suggest classifying elements of the

historical episode and the target event into

one of three categories: ―known,‖

―presumed‖ and ―unclear.‖ This separates

guesswork from knowledge and

recognizes ambiguities and information

gaps. Also, they encourage developing

lists of ―likenesses‖ and ―differences‖ for

analogues and targets. For example, we

have to keep in mind that today’s world of

high technology, instant communication,

and democracies, contemporary culture

not only differs tremendously from the

times that Europeans arrived in the

Americas or Percival Lowell concluded

that he had seen signs of intelligent life on

Mars. Separating fact from presumption,

acknowledging uncertainties, and

recognizing both likenesses and

differences should improve the usefulness

of historical analogues or at least reduce

the shock value if history fails to repeat

itself.

We can further distance ourselves from

fantasy documents if we understand

Clarke’s views on why these exist.15

Fantasy documents are largely symbolic

communications intended to serve

political and organizational purposes.

Their whole goal is to reassure audiences

that the planners are aware of the situation

and the implicit message is ―trust us – we

know what we are doing,‖ but such trust

would be misplaced. Fantasy documents

shield elites and organizations from

blame, by showing that a problem has

been considered and ―appropriate‖

measures taken. Fantasy documents evolve when political

agendas, and authorities, experts and

consultants work together to make an

intractable problem seem solvable or to

define the problem away. Oftentimes these

experts are working far from their areas of

expertise. Dissenters are silenced (for

example by casting people who agree with

the document as experts and those who

dispute the document as inexpert) and

people who hold opposing positions are

made to seem irrational. The document is

approved on ideological bases rather than

stringent peer review. Reality checks

come too late.

SURVEY RESEARCH

Survey research involves oral interviews

or written questionnaires to tap people’s

opinions and attitudes. The keys to

success are framing the questions, drawing

the samples, administering the

questionnaires, and analyzing the results.

To the extent that the questions are framed

properly and the sample drawn is

representative of the population of

interest, researchers can get quantitative

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estimates of the prevalence and strength of

people’s views. Common pitfalls include

failing to ask the right questions or doing

so in a misleading or confusing manner;

non-representative samples that are based

on convenience or self selection; and low

response rates that lead to misleading

findings.

Survey research is put to good use in

political opinion polls and marketing

research. However, drawing a

representative sample is technically

challenging and costly, as is sending

researchers into the field to track down

and interview unenthusiastic participants

whose exclusion would bias the results.

International polls, which would be useful

for present purposes, are even more

difficult since they pose more complex

sampling issues and require questions that

retain their meaning in different

languages.

Surveys of college students, newspaper

subscribers, astronomers, pastors, and

UFO enthusiasts are fine for some

purposes, as long as we never lose sight of

the limited nature of the samples. Today,

many organizations sponsor Internet

surveys and some of these get substantial

numbers of responses. The problem is that

respondents are self-selected and therefore

non-representative. For example, identical

web based questionnaires on evolution

and intelligent design posted by scientific

and religious organizations are likely to

point to different conclusions because the

two Websites draw people who have

different beliefs.

As John Billingham pointed out, survey

research could be a potent tool for

exploring people’s views of

extraterrestrial life.17

Numerous surveys

over the years have touched on beliefs

about our place in the universe and related

issues. Oftentimes these are geared

towards UFOs, but some surveys contain

information directly relevant to

astrobiology and SETI. For example, a

1999 Gallup Poll showed that 35 percent

of the American respondents believed that

life existed on Mars, 61 percent thought

that other forms of life existed elsewhere

in the universe, and 41 percent thought

that there could be ―people somewhat like

ourselves‖ living out there.18

A few other

surveys contain findings of general

interest despite reference to UFOs. An

example is Victoria Alexander’s ―UFO

Survey‖ of ministers, priests and rabbis.19

Caution is required because of her low

response rate, but her findings of positive

and relaxed attitudes towards the idea of a

populated universe and the possibility of

contact are interesting.

Still, many polls fail to separate scientific

and paranormal themes. Those of us who

are specifically interested in attitudes

towards astrobiology and SETI do not

have the financial means of television

producers who seek sensational opinions

about the reality of flying saucers, alien

abductions, and government cover-up in

order to generate public interest in their

television programs. A dozen or so

carefully developed questions asked by

trained professionals of well chosen

respondents could go a long way towards

elucidating national and world attitudes

towards astrobiology, SETI, our place in

the universe, and anticipated human

reactions to extraterrestrial life.

SCENARIO PLANNING

Based on the technical term for a play or a

movie, a scenario is a narrative or story

about how the future might evolve.20-22

Plots are carefully constructed to

underscore key elements. Different stories

of what might happen under different

scenarios draw attention to multiple

possibilities. First used by the military,

scenario planning spread to government

and industry. Military planners develop

scenarios where current allies join enemy

camps, and energy companies develop

scenarios where the emergence of new

technologies reduces demands for their

products. Scenario planning is useful for

decisions, for example, preparing for new

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kinds of warfare or buying rights to a

competing product before it becomes a

threat in the marketplace.

Scenario planning is a group activity,

involving perhaps 20 people. The group as

a whole sets goals, begins to rough out the

scenarios, and generates ideas. The group

is composed in such a way as to bring

different viewpoints, ideas, and talents to

the table, and it helps to include decision-

makers who are likely to use the results.

An ―open mind‖ is important, but so also

is not getting drowned in falsehood and

trivia. Participants are encouraged to

think creatively, identify and challenge

their own assumptions and prejudices, and

become attuned to multiple points of view.

Up to a point, unconventional thinkers are

considered an asset. Schwartz writes ―At

the social and intellectual fringes, thinkers

are freer to let their imaginations roam,

but they are still constrained by a sense of

current reality… [but]… it is hard to

predict which fringe elements will remain

in obscurity and which will change the

world.‖ 20, p. 69

Scenarios are developed in depth and trace

as many ramifications as possible.

Generally, groups construct between two

and (at the outside) five scenarios; beyond

this, scenarios tend to become confused

with one another. Scenarios include

predetermined elements (what we already

know), constraints, and critical

uncertainties. For example, within the

SETI framework, we would already know

that ―they‖ will have achieved or

surpassed our level of technology, and

interstellar distances will constrain

communication.

After the initial meetings a group of core

participants do further background

research, organize the ideas, and write the

scenarios. ―Partially filtered‖ information

is desirable; that is, researchers try to

avoid complete jumbles of ideas and

oversold conclusions. One of the functions

of the exercise is to challenge

preconceptions, so both disconfirming and

confirming evidence is welcome. Later,

scenarios can be re-evaluated by the team,

and the process reiterated as necessary. In

effect, much speculation about the

philosophical and practical implications of

extraterrestrial life is based on

rudimentary scenarios based in people’s

heads but most speculations are piecemeal

and poorly integrated.

Recently, Michael Michaud has identified

problems that hinder discussions of SETI

and its consequences.2 Among other

things, these include optimistic and

pessimistic biases, and tendencies to

anthropomorphize or impute human

characteristics to extraterrestrials. They

also include assumptions that astronomers

will make the discovery, that

extraterrestrial societies will have either

no impact or an extreme impact on our

own societies, that they will speak the

language of science, and that they will be

prepared for us even if we aren’t prepared

for them. Michaud also notes certain blind

spots. One of his examples is overlooking

the possibility of direct forms of contact,

such as finding an extraterrestrial artifact

within our solar system. The scenario

planning process is geared to ferret out

hidden assumptions, illuminate blind

spots, and challenge forgone conclusions.

Thus the technique should help planners

overcome many of the concerns raised by

Michaud.

Scenarios do not predict the future but

they do allow us to rehearse the future.

We do not know what will actually

happen but we can prepare ourselves by

thinking through a range of possibilities.

Rehearsal reduces the likelihood or

magnitude of unpleasant surprises, gives

us at least rough guidelines for action, and

could help us get up to speed when the

action starts. Rehearsal sensitizes us to

cues associated with the different

scenarios so noticing such a cue gives us a

hint as to what should happen next.

However, it’s worth keeping in mind that

preliminary cues can be misleading, as

when initially strong parallels between the

Spanish and Swine flu epidemics broke

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down and they followed very different

trajectories.

Scenarios can help protect us from ―wild

cards‖ that could invalidate our current

expectations. Nicholas Taleb argues that

many of the powerful forces that shape

society are ―outliers‖ or qualify as ―black

swans‖ in the sense that they were

inconceivable before they were

discovered, just as black swans were

inconceivable to Englishman before they

discovered these swans in Australia.23

Black swans - which include home

computers, the Internet, and Google - are

―outliers‖ in the sense that nothing in the

past could point convincingly to their

existence. Because of black swans change

proceeds by fits, starts, and jumps, rather

than orderly trends. Taleb writes that since

we seek order and coherence in the

universe, we develop after the fact

explanations that make black swans seem

logical and predictable, perhaps forgetting

that we are viewing events through the

rearview mirror rather than the windshield

of the car.

What scenarios might be useful for SETI

planning? This, of course, should be a

group decision, but about ten years ago, at

a workshop on the Societal Implications of

Astrobiology at NASA-Ames Research

Center, I presented four scenarios

arranged along two dimensions. 24

One

dimension or axis expressed the level of

complexity of life form encountered, and

the second axis expressed its proximity to

Earth. Consistent with living systems

theory and prevailing thoughts about

cosmic evolution, I defined complexity in

terms of consciousness, culture, and

society.25,26

Under this paradigm grasses

and plants, single-celled creatures, insects,

worms, and small animals qualify as

simple. Life forms that are capable of

elaborate thought, are self-aware, gather

together into large and intricate societies

and rely heavily on symbols and

technology are defined as complex.

(Societies based on artificial intelligence

fall into this category.) They are capable

of advanced technology and can indicate

their presence over vast interstellar

distances. The second dimension,

proximity to Earth is much easier to

describe: distal locations are external to

our solar system while proximal locations

are within.

When we cross the two levels of

complexity with two levels of proximity

we have four scenarios titled Distant Dust,

Microbes on Mars, ET Calling, and Space

Visitors. The first two are associated with

astrobiology, and the third, ET Calling,

with SETI. The fourth scenario, Space

Visitors, involves unequivocal evidence of

extraterrestrial intelligence within our

solar system. Examples include finding

artifacts left on the Moon or a solar planet,

sighting or intercepting transmissions

from extraterrestrial probes within our

solar system, discovering ET on the

Internet, encounters with aliens, and so

forth. Unlike the preceding scenarios,

which are relatively constrained, this one

involves almost endless possibilities and is

the most open to imagination and fantasy.

The confusion and emotionality associated

with variants of this scenario helps

account for its lack of prominence in

scientific circles. Note that over time we

may be confronted by more than one of

these scenarios.

Distal Proximal

Complex ET Calling Space Visitors

standard SETI artifacts and

scenario encounters

Simple Distant Dust Microbes on Mars

Conditions for fossils, single cell

life, precur- organisms, plants

sors of life, grasses on Mars,

biosignatures

Table 1: Detection Scenarios Based on

Living System Complexity and Proximity

The unfolding of any of these detection

scenarios would represent a great

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scientific discovery and could have

profound effects upon us. Nonetheless, it

should prove more challenging easing

humanity through some of these scenarios

(Space Visitors and ET Calling) than

others (Microbes on Mars and Distant

Dust). Each scenario has different

implications for psychology, society, and

culture. Given our current knowledge not

all of these scenarios are equally probable

and perhaps some are impossible, but

thinking these through could help us

become familiar with uncertainties and

possibilities and reduce the risk of scary

surprises.

Scenario planning requires meetings,

research teams, and other costly activities.

Military planning groups do not have to

worry about financial support for their

efforts and corporate sponsors are happy

to hire consultants that could help them

face competition or annoying legislation.

At present, SETI social science is not

awash in money. Could serious and

sustained scenario planning proceed

nevertheless?

Today, the Internet and its

accompaniments make it possible to

assemble ―virtual‖ teams in cyberspace.

Whereas some of the enthusiasm and give

and take of face-to-face meetings may be

lost, virtual meetings make it possible to

work around busy schedules and

continuously update written records. Here

a wiki - a multi-authored document that

evolves on a Web site – may be of help.

Participants write text, assess and edit

each others contributions, raise questions

and post comments. A successful wiki

would most likely require a small cadre of

dedicated enthusiasts to oversee and flesh

out the scenarios, as well as a larger group

of participants that brings multiple

perspectives to bear, generates ideas, and

evaluates progress. After sufficient

development, the site could be opened to

the public, who might not be able to alter

the wiki but could send comments and

suggestions to the editors.

A wiki is ―living‖ in the sense that it is

continually evolving and updated. Unlike

conferences, which typically involve a

brief period of frenzied activity followed

by a great silence, wikis permit sustained

planning. They can be set aside for

extended periods of time, and then work

can resume. Unlike a single authored

book, they encourage buy-in from many

different participants. In comparison to

both single authored books and conference

proceedings they do not become dated as

soon as they are released, and, once they

are opened to the public, they are

accessible and without cost. Wikis are not

without problems, for example, initial

enthusiasm for participation is not always

matched by long, hard hours at the

computer and not all participants agree

that each contribution is for the better.

Still, strategies are available for working

around these problems, and for cash-

strapped scholars, wikis provide an

opportunity for low cost sustained

collaborative efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

As we contemplate the philosophical,

psychological, societal and cultural

implications of SETI we should try to

maintain an open mind, achieve a balance

between imagination and reality, and

remain aware that detection could occur at

any time. We need to recognize when we

are making assumptions, when we are

dealing with facts, and when we are

confronted by uncertainties. As much as

possible, we should keep our biases under

control. We should avoid denying

possibilities on emotional rather than

rational bases, over-relying on simplifying

assumptions, and seeking confirmation of

our hypothesis while ignoring

inconvenient evidence. Also, as I pointed

out at an earlier Congress, planning is a

group rather than solo activity and we

need to be aware that it will be shaped by

group and organizational dynamics as well

as psychological factors.27

Any agency -

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academic, governmental, or commercial,

or not-for-profit – that is involved in the

planning process will have to contend with

both internal and external politics and

culture.

We have to remember that reactions to

extraterrestrial life will vary depending on

individual psychological, societal, and

cultural variables. Reactions will depend,

also, on the nature of ―the other‖ and the

way that the scenario unfolds – for

example, rapidly or slowly. And, because

the target event could occur at any

moment in history, scenarios will have to

be updated now and then.

Planning should not be the sole province

of academics, no matter how varied and

interdisciplinary the group. It is important

to involve leaders who may have to make

key decisions, and, if that is impossible,

then their close advisors. At least,

influential people should be aware that

possibilities are being explored. That we

may have reduced uncertainty for fellow

academics will be of minor solace if

presidents, generals, governors,

spymasters, bishops, chief executive

officers and other powerful people are

caught by surprise. And, if governmental

or military commissions or agencies are

developing their own scenarios behind

closed doors, ours that are developed in

the open marketplace of ideas could offer

useful counterpoints.

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