Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin
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Transcript of Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basin
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Against the flow: Against the flow: new power dynamics in the Nile Basinnew power dynamics in the Nile Basin
EPD SeminarsKing’s College London1st November 2011
Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoStockholm International Water InstituteStockholm International Water Institute
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The Nile River BasinThe Nile River Basin
THE REGIONTHE REGION
10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics
THE REGIONTHE REGION
10+1 riparian states160 million inhabitantsUnderdeveloped (but growing) economiesConflict-stricken regionLow levels of regional integrationComplex hydropolitics
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abc of Nile Basin Hydropolitics
• Uneven distribution
• Inequitable utilisation
• Water = Politics• Water = National Security• Water = Sovereignty
• Power asymmetries• Hydro-Hegemony
• Problematic water agreements
• Past: conflicts• Water-Sharing:
political priority
SECURITISATION
HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION
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Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Egypt:‘Hydraulic state’ still expandingMonopoly of the Nile watersStronger and more diversified economyMonolithic and stable political systemSupport of international community
Upstream:Agriculture-based economies (rainfed)Weaker but growing economiesShadow of conflicts still presentChanging geopolitics
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Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
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The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011The Hydropolitical chessboard pre-2011
Official ‘dyad’
UpstreamBloc
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2011: Tipping point(s) in the 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basinhydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin
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Implications of the several ‘events’?Implications of the several ‘events’?
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Republic South Sudan:Republic South Sudan:Referendum and independenceReferendum and independence
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Egypt: Revolution and Fall of MubarakEgypt: Revolution and Fall of Mubarak
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Burundi signs the Cooperative Burundi signs the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA)Framework Agreement (CFA)
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Ethiopia: Grand Renaissance DamEthiopia: Grand Renaissance Dam and Tripartite Committee and Tripartite Committee
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Nile Basin:Nile Basin:The future is not what it used to be!The future is not what it used to be!
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