8/2/2019 After Tunisia Egypt - The Roar of Democracy 01

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European Union Institute for Security Studies1

After tunisiA, egypt:

the roAr of democrAcyHas the popular uprising in Tunisia sparked a waveof democratic revolution that will conquer Egyptand eventually sweep away the undemocratic Arabexception? After southern Europe in the 1970s,Latin America in the late 1980s and central and

eastern Europe in the 1990s, it seems that the turnof the Mediterranean has come. It is in Europesvital interest that democracy should at long last takeroot in the region.

The ousting of Ben Alis autocratic regime signalledthe collapse of a model of stability, based onan undistinguishable blend of authoritarianismand state-sponsored corruption, and whosealleged social achievements were attributed to adubiouseconomic miracle, which was unashamedlypraised by European leaders. The surge of anger

and revolt in Egypt, whatever its nal outcome,has signalled the beginning of the end of the era ofauthoritarian nationalist Arab regimes.

Contrary to Tunisia, the military are a pillar of theregime. It is unlikely however that the huge Egyptianarmy, largely made up of conscripts, can be expectedto engage in a massive wave of violent repression.There is no precedent for this in Egypt.

Even if Hosni Mubarak manages to ride out theunprecedented wave of anger and protest for themeagre remainder of his term in ofce, the ruling

NDP regime will not survive for long. Its legitimacyhas been irreparably shaken. The appointmentof Omar Suleiman as vice-president (and heir-apparent) indicates that the army has accepted thatMubarak must leave sooner or later. One thing isnow certain: Mubarak will not be able to add anotherterm to his 30-year long tenure, nor will he be ableto bequeath the presidency to his son who hadlong been groomed to succeed him. The regimesinternational legitimacy is equally in a shambles.

The United States, Egypts main ally, stopping

short of siding with the rebellious secular street,

is holding Mubarak or whoever takes his place

to the Presidents televised promise of a betterdemocracy and demanding swift action to meet thepeoples legitimate demands. That the post-Mubarakera is already being contemplated is signalled bythe announcement that the $1.5 billion (largelymilitary) US aid to Egypt is under review and willbe withheld in the event of unacceptable levels ofrepression, as well as by the emphasis put on theWhite Houses willingness to work with the Egyptiangovernment and the Egyptian people in addressingtheir grievances.

The US and Europe seem keen on a bottom-down

process rather than upheaval leading to suddencollapse. But a protracted and incremental processof small steps towards economic and then politicalreform in Egypt, in the sequence contemplated by theEuropean Unions neighbourhood policy that waslargely snubbed by the Egyptian government, is nolonger an option. The Egyptian regime is now pastreforming, and must give way to a new democraticrepublic, with a new constitution. Ideally, this shouldcome about in a similar manner to democratictransitions in Latin America at the close of the 1980s,when authoritarian, army-backed rulers yielded to

popular demands for radical, democratic regime

lvaro deVasconcelos*January 2011

A protester waves an Egyptian fag ater he climbed on a lampost during a demonstra-

tion in Tahrir square in downtown Cairo, Egypt, at dusk, Sunday, Jan. 30, 2011

KhalilHamra/AP/SIPA

* lvaro de Vasconcelos is the Director of the EUInstitute for Security Studies.

This article was originally publishedin Project Syndicate

8/2/2019 After Tunisia Egypt - The Roar of Democracy 01

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European Union Institute for Security Studies2

change. Resorting to hiring gangs of thugs to carryout widespread intimidation and eventually blameviolence on a largely peaceful protest that is drawinghundreds of thousands of ordinary Egyptians out onthe streets is not, however, a good omen.

The outcome of political transition is by denition

uncertain. This is no less true for Egypt, wherethe pressure of popular revolt that has swampedthe regular and state police and shows no sign ofabating may yet be momentarily strangled by amilitary clampdown in spite of international calls forrestraint.

Unlike what they did in Tunisia where support to thepeoples demands for dignity and justice were onlypledged after the president had ed, Europeans and

Americans should now seek to step up the pressureon those in charge in Egypt primarily the military

at this stage to start making good on promises ofa better democracy. This will lack credibility underMubarak, whose refusal to stand down is a recipefor chaos. It is necessary that the internationalcommunity:

Clearly state that they want for theMediterranean the same thing it wants for itself: afully-edged democracy.

Appeal to Hosni Mubarak to step down andmake way for a military-backed but not military-led

broad-based transitional government.

Demand an immediate end to the regime-sponsored intimidation, looting and violence that isseriously compromising Egyptians security.

Call for an end to the state of emergency,granting amnesty to political prisoners and theimmediate release of all those held without charge.

Offer emergency assistance should thefood supply or other essential services be severelydisrupted.

There are many conditions in Egypt for democratictransformation to succeed: a vibrant and organisedcivil society, a largely free press, and well-respectedopposition gures as well as a variety of battered butresilient political parties of different persuasions.

Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood, so far only marginallyinvolved in an uprising it has not initiated and has nohope of controlling, cannot serve as an excuse to tryto save a failing regime. The tragic consequences ofeleventh-hour attempts to save the Shah should not

be forgotten. Democratic transition should force theBrotherhood to participate alongside other partiesin a political arena that is kept separate from thereligious sphere. Furthermore there is no reason to

believe (contrary to the regimes insistence) that theywould emerge as the victorious political force, farfrom it. Concerns are also voiced in many quartersas to the future of Egypts foreign policy, especiallywith regard to Israel. But there is no indication thata non-authoritarian regime in Egypt would call thepeace treaty into question. A denite end to the Gazablockade (which the EU has ofcially demanded) anda shift in the attitude towards Hamas in the sense ofa more serious attempt at forging Palestinian unityalong the lines of NATO-member Turkeys positionare more likely to be expected.

For Europe, the best option is to support the presentmass movement that is calling for regime change andwhich is drawing together a wide variety of activistsfrom civil society organisations, largely of secularpersuasion, all kinds of younger professionals,and parliamentary candidates from the opposition

parties who were denied a fair chance of runningfor a seat in parliament, among many, many others.This movements demands are being articulated byMohammed ElBaradei.

The tripartite Merkel-Sarkozy-Cameron declarationcalling for a broad-based government and free andfair elections in Egypt stands out in stark contrastto the embarrassed silence with which they greetedTunisias democratic uprising before belatedlyarticulating support for it. It is still too soon, however,to conclude that Europeans have nally overcome

their fear of democracy in the Arab world and willnot be tempted, should the crisis drag on and/or afull military takeover occur, to accept milder formsof liberal authoritarianism. This would be a gravemistake. If the popular demands for democracyare not met, this will lead to deeper crisis that willonly prolong the peoples suffering and the rulingregimes agony and furthermore pave the way forextreme alternatives to take hold. Europe must beas supportive of democracy in the neighbouringsouth as it is within Europe itself. This means todaysupporting the democratic struggle of the Egyptianpeople, but also actively supporting the transition

in Tunisia, whose courageous people and theirdemands must not be forgotten as all eyes areset on Egypt. When tides are turning, people willremember who stood by them in solidarity and whodid not. Just as it did during the Orange Revolutionin 2004, Europe needs to show that it stands bydemocracy, not merely issue calls for stability.