1www.slac.stanford.edu/grp/scs/net/talk09/i2oct09.ppt

African Internet Performance, Fibres & the Soccer World Cup

Prepared by: Les CottrellSLAC,Umar KalimSEECS,NUST/SLAC

Presented at the Africa Regional Interest Group meeting Monday 5th October 2009

Summary• Methodology• Current State• What is happening?• Impact• Next Steps

33

PingER Methodology extremely Simple

Internet

10 ping request packets each 30 mins

RemoteHost(typicallya server)

Monitoring host

>ping remhost

Ping response packets

Measure Round Trip Time & Loss

Data Repository @ SLAC

Once a D

ay

Uses ubiquitous ping

Coverage

4

4

– Monitors >40 in 23 countries – 4 in Africa – Algeria, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Zambia,

– Beacons ~ 90– Remote sites (~740) – 50 African Countries

– ~ 99% of world’s population

5

World Throughput Trends Behind Europe5 Yrs: Russia, Latin America, Mid East 6 Yrs: SE Asia9 Yrs: South Asia12 Yrs: Cent. Asia16 Yrs: Africa

Central Asia, and Africa are in

Danger of Falling Even Farther

behindIn 10 years at the

current rate Africa will be 150 times

worse than Europe

Derived throughput ~ 8 * 1460 /(RTT * sqrt(loss))Mathis et. al

1993

Africa is huge, diverse & dreadful access• Hard to get fibre everywhere• ~ 1B people, over 1000

languages,multi climates

6

Fibres

CapacityFrom Telegeography

Why does Fibre matter: Satellite & Min-RTT

• GEOS (Geostationary Earth Orbit Satellite)– good coverage, but expensive in $/Mbps

• broadband costs 50 times that in US, >800% of monthly salary c.f. 20% in US– AND long delays min RTT > 450ms– Easy to spot

Min

imum

RTT

(ms)

Min- RTT from SLAC to African Countries

Terrestrial

GEOS

What is happening• Up until July 2009 only one

submarine fibre optic cable to sub-Saharan Africa (SAT3) costly (no competition) & only W. Coast

• 2010 Football World Cup => scramble to provide fibre optic connections to S. Africa, both E & W Coast

• Multiple providers = competition• E. Coast: Seacom & TEAMs

landed Jul 2009, Seacom working

Plans for New Sub-SaharanUndersea Cables to Europe and India by 2011

Seacom (7/09)

EASSy(6/10)

TEAMs(9/09)

WACS(Q2/11)

MaIN One(Q4/10)

GLO1(11/09)

ACE(2011?)

$ 650M $ 265M $ 82M $ 2B ? $ 865 M $ 150 M ???13.7 kkm 10 kkm 4.5 kkm 13 kkm 14 kkm 9.5 kkm 12 kkm

1.28 Tbps 1.4 Tbps 0.12 – 1.2 Tbps 3.84 Tbps 2.5 Tbps? 0.64 Tbps ???

June 2009 Q1/Q2 2010 Sept. 2009 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2009 2011

Ambitious plans are once again underway to better-connect the African continent

The potential increase in capacity compared to now is 1000X

The issue is whether there is a sustainable market

Before the recession hit, outlook was at least one of these new cable projects would succeed this time

http://manypossibilities.net/african-underseacables

Impact: RTT etc.• As sites move their routing from GEOS to terrestrial

connections, we can expect:– Dramatically reduced Round Trip Time (RTT), e.g. from 700ms to

350ms – seen immediately– Reduced losses and jitter due to higher bandwidth capacity and

reduced contention – when routes etc. stabilized• Dramatic effects seen in leading Kenyan & Ugandan hosts

325ms

Big jump Aug 1 ’09 23:00hrMedian RTT SLAC to Kenya

• Bkg color=loss Smoke=jitter

• RTT improves by factor 2.2

• Losses reduced• Thruput

~1/(RTT*sqrt(loss)) up factor 3

720ms

From ICTP, Trieste, Italy• Even Bigger effect since closer than SLAC

– Median RTT drops 780ms to 225ms, i.e. cut by 2/3rds (3.5 times improvement)

Aug 2nd

Seems to be stabilizing

Still big diurnal changes

Other countries• Angola step mid-May, more stable

• Zambia one direction reduce 720>550ms– Unstable, still

trying?• Tanzania, also

dramatic reduction in losses

• Uganda inland via Kenya, 2 step process

• Many sites still to connect

750ms 450ms

Aug 20

SLAC to Angola

SLAC to Zambia

SLAC to Tanzania

SLAC to Uganda

1 direction

Both directions

Sep 27

1 direction Both directions?

Next Steps: Going inland

• Extend coverage from landing points to capitals and major cites

• Need fibre connections inland

Central

Northern

Southern

• Connect up the rest of the sites & countries

Next Steps: Beyond Fibre’s reach• In areas where fibre connections are not available (e.g.

rural areas), the main contenders appear to be:– wireless, e.g. microwave, cellphone towers, WiMax etc., – Low Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEOS) for example

Google signed up with Liberty Global and HSBC in a bid to launch 16 LEOS satellites, to bring high-speed internet access to Africa by end 2010,

• gigaom.com/2008/09/09/google-invests-in-satellite-based-internet-startup/

– and weather balloons• www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?section_id=694&doc_id=178131&• http://crossedcrocodiles.wordpress.com/2009/06/26/undersea-broadband-

fiber-optic-cables-to-africa/

Next Steps: Let’s get together• Get leaders such as universities, academic

establishments (teach the teachers) to get togeher to form NRENs for country

• Bargain for cheaper rates• BW most expensive

worldwide ($4K/Mbps)• Then NRENS get together to

create International eXchange Points (IXPs)– Avoid intercountry links

using expensive intercontinental links via Europe and the US.

From Broubecker Barry 2008

Routing• Used to typically go through a satellite provider such

as Newskies• Now TZ, UG & KE go via London

and Teleglobe & terrestrial fibre• IXPs starting up, e.g.

• S. Africa direct to Namibia, Botswana, Mozambique

• Burkina Faso direct to Mali, Senegal, Benin

• Ubuntunet Alliance > GEANT• Founders: Kenya, Malawi,

Mozambique, Rwanda South Africa• Joined by DRC, SD, TZ, UG

S. Africa

Burkina Faso

Impact for Science• African scientists isolated• Lack critical mass• Need network to collaborate

but it is terrible• Brain drain• Brain gain, tap diaspora• Blend in distance learning• Provide leadership, train

trainers

17

Internet Users 2002

Cartograms from:www.geog.qmw.ac.uk/gbhgis/conference/cartogram.html

Tertiary Education fromhttp://www.worldmapper.org/

Conclusions• Many problems: electricity, skills, disease, wars,

poverty, conflict,protectionist policies, corruption – Current providers (cable and satellite) have a lot to loose

• Many of these have close links to regulators and governments (e.g. over 50% of ISPs in Africa are government controlled)

• Attractions: enormous untapped market, youthful population

• Internet great enabler in information age• The fibre coming to Sub-Saharan Africa has

great potential help catchup & leap forward– Still last mile problems, and network fragility– Leap frog: OLPC, net computer, smart phones 18

More Information• Case Study:

– confluence.slac.stanford.edu/display/IEPM/New+E.+Coast+of+Africa+Fibre

• Ubuntunet Alliance– www.ubuntunet.net/

• Internet prices fall– www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/business/

Internet_prices_to_fall_with_surge_in_clients_-_UTL_92117.shtml • MANGO-NET (Made in Africa NGO NETwork)

– www.isgtw.org/?pid=1001999