African Development Bank Group - Quaterly statistical review - First quarter 2013

After a weak ending to the year 2012,

the global economy picked up during

the first months of 2013, driven by

resilience in emerging economies. The outlook

for the first half of 2013 is for a return to slow but

steady growth in the United States and Canada,

and an improving outlook in Japan. In Europe a

meaningful recovery is likely to take longer.

Generally, the performance of emerging

economies remains much more robust than that

of advanced countries, although with significant

variations across regions. Business confidence

has generally improved since the start of the

year, supported by improvements in equity

markets in particular. In the eurozone however,

confidence weakened in March and remains well

below 50, which is the borderline between

expansion and contraction.

Continuing shocks emanating from the eurozone,

including the aftermath of Cyprus’s recent sove-

reign debt crisis, have acted as a rein on the glo-

bal recovery. World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012

was down sharply compared to the 5.2% recor-

ded in 2011. Despite this, transmission to African

economies has been tempered by more intensive

financial and trade linkages between the conti-

nent and other economically dynamic regions.

The importance of countries such as China, Bra-

zil, and India as trading partners, export destina-

tions, and sources of investment in Africa is

growing. Africa’s merchandise exports to develo-

ping economies in 2011 accounted for almost

42% of total exports, compared to 28% in 2005.

There has been a marked shift toward Asia as an

export destination, which accounted for 25% of

total export flows in 2011, compared to just 16%

in 2005.

Africa & Global Economic TrendsQuarterly Statistical Review

Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013

Contents

1 | World Economy

1.1. | Economic growth & unemployment

1.2. | Inflation and financial developments

2 | Africa in the World Economy

2.1. | Economic growthFocus: Ghanaian economy

2.2. | Merchandise trade 2.3. | Commodity trends 2.4. | Inflation & money supply 2.5. | Financial indicators

3 | Data sources and descriptions

Mthuli NcubeChief Economist & Vice President (ECON)[email protected]+216 7110 2062

Charles Leyeka LufumpaDirector, Statistics Department (ESTA)[email protected]+216 7110 2175`

Victor MurindeDirector, African Development Institute(EADI)[email protected]+216 7110 2075

Steve Kayizzi-MugerwaDirector, Development Research Department, (EDRE)[email protected]+216 7110 2064

At a glance

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13

Global economy : business confidence (monthly data)

-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

This brief was prepared by Louis Kouakou (Statistician, ESTA1), Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Assistant, ESTA1) underthe supervision of Beejaye Kokil, (Manager, Economic & Social Statistics Division, ESTA.1).For access to development data on African countries, please visit the AfDB Data Portal Web Site at:http://intranet.afdb.org/statistics or the Statistics Least developed economiesDepartment Web Site: www.afdb.org/statistics


Africa : Merchandise exports by destination(shere in %)

2 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013

� World Economy Economic Growth ...

1.1 - World economy : economic growth & unemployment?

Gradual recovery in global economy

Economic developments over the past 12 months have been bumpy, punctuated byslowing real activity in advanced economies, large swings in investor sentiment, amidperiods of relative calm and improving prospects. Output in the second half of 2012was constrained, buffeted by a noticeable slowdown in emerging markets and de-veloping economies. However, the pace of the global economy picked up in the firstquarter of 2013 from the lows posted at year-end 2012. Global activity is evolving ata three-speed pace. Growth is regaining strong momentum in emerging economies;activity picking up substantially in the US, Canada and Japan; but the eurozone isexperiencing stagnation, reflecting a lack of investor confidence and weak consumerdemand triggered by stringent austerity measures undertaken in many countries.Taking these factors into account, global output is forecast to increase by 3.3% in2013, driven mainly by 5.3% GDP growth in emerging and developing economies.

In the US, economic figures for the first quarter of 2013 were stronger than expec-ted. Unemployment is falling gradually, consumer spending is increasing and salesof new and previously owned homes are performing well. Nonetheless, the federalgovernment’s fiscal difficulties could weigh on growth later in the year, as an increasein payroll tax and cuts in federal spending start to take hold. Political gridlock in theUS may be easing, which could open the way for more targeted measures to be in-troduced to support the recovery. The Federal Reserve has signaled that its most re-cent program of quantitative easing will not be withdrawn, but as the economy picksup, transitioning to a less accommodative policy stance could prove challenging.The IMF is forecasting real GDP growth of just below 2% for the US in 2013.

Lagging recovery in the eurozone

In the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP in the eurozone contracted by 0.6% after a de-cline of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The decrease in exports exerted a drag onGDP growth, while domestic demand remained depressed. During the first quarterof 2013, both business and consumer confidence in the eurozone remained sub-dued in the face of disappointing economic figures. Although the German economyshowed positive growth in the first quarter, the downturn in the rest of the eurozoneappears to be intensifying. According to the IMF, only one of the big four economies– Germany – can expect to see positive growth in 2013, at just 0.6%. This is wea-ker even than the forecast for the UK. France is expected to follow last year’s zerogrowth with a contraction of 0.1%, while Italy and Spain will see growth slump byaround 1.5% in 2013. For the advanced countries of Europe as a whole, the WEO’sprojected real GDP growth figure for 2013 has been revised downward to -0.3%.

In addition to declining manufacturing output, average unemployment in the euro-zone has hit 12%. Figures from the Eurostat show that the overall unemployment ratein the 17-member currency union has risen steeply since February 2012, when therate was 10.9%. Across the wider, 27-country EU the total number of jobless is a re-cord 26.3 million. In Greece, the youth unemployment rate is nearing 60% while inSpain it is 56%.

Fiscal stimulus measures in Japan

In Japan, a new government has prioritized a sizable fiscal stimulus package and amore accommodative monetary policy as a way to spur economic growth and trade.Investors have watched the yen weaken by around 20% against the dollar sincemid-2012. This has led to warnings by the US Treasury that Japan should refrainfrom “competitive devaluation” of its currency. Such an approach renders Japanesegoods (e.g. automobiles) more attractive in the global marketplace compared togoods from competitor nations such as South Korea. The WEO (April 2013) projectsgrowth of around 1.5% for Japan in 2013.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

62009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Graph 1. Advanced economies / GDP growth (Quarterlydata, % change on previous quarter)

Graph 2. Emerging economies / GDP growth (Quarterlydata, % change on same quarter of previous year

Graph 3. Harmonized unemployment rate (% of activepopulation)

?

Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 3

� World Economy Inflation and financial developments ...

1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments

The slowdown in emerging economies during 2012 reflected slackening manufac-turing output due to decreasing orders from advanced economies, combined withdomestic monetary policy tightening. The first quarter of 2013 saw a slowing ofChina’s growth to 7.7%, missing forecasts for 8% year-on-year growth, with miningstocks significantly hit. Nonetheless, with consumer demand resilient and exports re-viving, most regions of Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected tomaintain strong growth in 2013.

Inflation generally subdued

In most advanced economies, low underlying inflation rates allow headroom for mo-netary policy action to accelerate recovery. In the US, inflation eased in March to1.5%, down from 2.0% in February; this was largely due to lower gasoline prices.Core inflation also edged down to 1.9% in March, from 2.0% in the previous month.In the eurozone, inflation fell marginally to 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013, compa-red to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.

China posted a 2.1% inflation rate in March, down from a 10-month high 3.2% in Fe-bruary. February’s spike was caused by increased food spending due to the LunarNew Year holiday. China’s leadership has targeted annual economic growth at 7.5%and inflation at 3.5%. The Bank of Japan has adopted an aggressive monetary sti-mulus approach, by committing to inject about US$ 1.4 trillion into the economy inless than two years. By so doing, it aims to end nearly two decades of stagnationand raise inflation to 2%. One measure it has taken is to abandon interest rates asa target and become the only major central bank to focus primarily on the monetarybase – the amount of cash in circulation. To achieve its target, the BoJ will purchasemore government bonds and other types of assets. Moreover, the average maturityon purchased securities will rise to seven years from the previous three years. Theannouncement of this measure led to a 3% depreciation of the yen against the USdollar while yields on the 10-year government bond plummeted to a record low.

The US dollar continued appreciating against major currencies in March 2013, gai-ning 3.0% on the euro and 1.7% against the Japanese yen. The appreciation of theUS dollar against the yen continued after the BoJ’s monetary stimulus announce-ment, which led to a monthly average parity of ¥94.752 per US dollar in March. Whe-ther the dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies will depend on anumber of other indicators, including the jobless numbers, in the months ahead. Re-cession in the eurozone has weakened the single currency, leading in March 2013to an average exchange rate of !1 = US$1.2963. The recession in Europe has les-sened the pressures that drive inflation – such as the demand for energy, while highunemployment has kept a lid on wage rises.

Buoyant financial markets

The first quarter of 2013 saw investors return in large numbers to equity markets, asa reaction to low interest rates and a shift away from bonds. Equity markets conti-nue to hit new highs, but the rally remains narrow and is mostly driven by the US andJapan. The S&P 500 is now just a few points off its all-time high. The remarkable re-silience shown by the US economy to weather the fiscal cliff headwinds is boostinginvestors’ confidence in US equities, which are outperforming their global counter-parts.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Graph 4. Inflation / Consumer prices (monthly data, %change on same month of previous year)

Graph 5. Exchange rates (US$ per national currency)

Graph 6. Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100)

??


�World Economy Financial Indicators ...

1.3 - WORLD ECONOMY: Summary of world statistics

� World Economy

Table 1 : Real GDP Growth (seasonally adjusted data)

Country 2011 2012 2013 f 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4!! % change on previous year !! % change on previous quarter

United States 1.8 2.2 1.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1

Japan -0.6 2.0 1.6 2.5 0.1 1.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.0

Eurozone 1.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6

France 1.7 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.3

Germany 3.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.6

Italy 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9

!! % change on previous year !! % change on same quarter of previous year

China 9.4 7.8 8.0 9.7 9.1 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9

India 7.7 4.0 5.7 7.2 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.4 3.9

Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.4

4.3 3.4 3.4 4.6 5.2 4.3 4.3 3.3 2.4

Table 2 : In!ation (consumer prices, %)

Country 2011 2012 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1!! % change on previous year !! % change on same quarter of previous year

United States 3.2 2.1 3.8 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7

Japan -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6

China 5.4 2.6 6.3 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4

India 8.9 9.3 9.2 8.4 7.2 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.7

Eurozone (HCP) 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8

France 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.1

Germany 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5

Italy 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 1.9

Table 3 : Financial indicators

Country 2011 2012 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1

Stock markets (end of period quotes)

USA (S&P 500) 1257.6 1426.19 1131.42 1257.6 1408.47 1362.16 1440.67 1426.19 1569.19

Japan (Nikkei 225) 8455.4 10395.18 8700.29 8455.35 10083.56 9006.78 8870.16 10395.18 12397.91

U.K (FTSE 100) 5572.3 5897.8 5128.48 5572.28 5768.45 5571.15 5742.07 5897.81 6411.74

Europe (Eurotop) 2100.86 2324.9 1917.77 2100.86 2209.3 2114.33 2241.99 2324.9 2431.37

Hong Kong (HSI) 18434.4 22656.92 17592.41 18434.39 20555.59 19441.46 20840.38 22656.92 22299.63

Brazil (BVSP) 56754 60952 52324 56754 64511 54355 59176 60952 56352

Exchange rates (national units per US-Dollar, period average)

Euro 0.719 0.778 0.706 0.742 0.763 0.780 0.799 0.771 0.758

Yen 79.8 79.8 78.2 77.3 79.3 80.1 78.6 81.3 92.3

Yuan 6.46 6.31 6.42 6.34 6.31 6.31 6.33 6.30 6.28

Interest rates (% per annum, period average)

United States 2.786 1.803 2.427 2.047 2.037 1.823 1.643 1.707 1.950

Japan 1.102 0.836 1.024 1.024 0.962 0.850 0.779 0.751 0.650

Eurozone 4.312 3.053 4.282 4.200 3.653 3.443 2.897 2.220 2.765

Chief Economist Complex, ECON 4

Russia

??


� Africa in the World Economy Economic Growth ...

2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth

Strong growth overall, despite mixed country performances

Economic growth in Africa remained robust at 4.6% in 2012, despite the slowdownin the global recovery. Africa’s resilience is linked to continued momentum in emer-ging economies, the continent’s attractiveness as an FDI destination, robust do-mestic demand, ongoing investment in infrastructure, and activation of new capacityin the extractive sectors. This overall positive performance is though far from uni-form across the continent, as domestic factors – including monetary policy tighte-ning (Kenya and Uganda), protracted labor disputes (South Africa), and politicalunrest (Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, and Guinea Bissau) – have impeded growth in a num-ber of African countries.

The continent’s strong performance during 2012 was largely due to high commodityprices and an increase in private capital flows, particularly to the natural resourcessector, in the form of FDI. Exports grew strongly in the first half of the year; howevera sharp deceleration of industrial commodities and oil exports occurred in the secondhalf of 2012. Tourism, an important driver of growth for many countries, remained ro-bust with a high level of arrivals in many of the traditional destinations, includingSouth Africa, Kenya, and Madagascar. However, the North African countries of Tu-nisia and Egypt, whose economies also rely heavily on the sector, are struggling towin back holidaymakers – particularly tourists from the austerity-hit eurozone – sometwo years after the sociopolitical unrest of the Arab Spring erupted.

South Africa's GDP growing at a lackluster pace

In South Africa, negative domestic factors reined in economic growth at a lackluster2.5% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011. Despite forecasts of a contraction in thefourth quarter of 2012, real economic growth seasonally adjusted picked up by0.5%, after a revision of the third quarter figures to roughly 0.3%, after industrial ac-tion in the mining sector had taken its toll. Mining sector real value added contrac-ted further in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a number of gold and platinum mineslost output due to strike activity. By contrast, agricultural output rose as livestockproduction held up fairly well over the period.

The manufacturing sector in South Africa saw real output increase in the final quar-ter of 2012, supported by continued demand from emerging economies and im-proved competitiveness due to depreciation of the rand. However, indicators aremore muted for the first quarter of 2013 – with a dip in consumer confidence and ma-nufacturing output slowing. South Africa’s economy is forecast to grow at a muted2.75% in 2013, owing to the slowdown in mining production and the weakness ofdemand in the eurozone, which is its main export market.

Pressures on fiscal and external stability in Tunisia and Egypt

Tunisia shares many of the same problems as Egypt: a high level of unemploymentparticularly among the youth; food and oil subsidies that represent a drain on go-vernment finances; and sociopolitical fragility in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.Major international ratings agencies have downgraded Tunisia and Egypt’s sove-reign credit ratings with a negative outlook, citing acute political, economic, and se-curity strains. Tunisia’s trade is particularly vulnerable to the eurozone crisis, asrecession-hit France and Italy represent its largest export markets. Egypt’s negotia-tions to secure an IMF loan of US$ 4.8 billion have stalled.

However, the IMF has reached a framework agreement with Tunisia on a two-year,US$1.75 billion standby loan deal, which is awaiting final approval from the IMF boardof directors. The aim of the loan is to support the implementation of the govern-ment’s reform program to promote private investment, foster sustainable job-crea-tion, reduce economic and social regional disparities, and strengthen social policiesto protect the most vulnerable.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

??

Graph 7. GDP growth for selected countries (quarterlydata, % annual change )

Graph 8. Manufacturing production (monthly data, % annual change)

Graph 9. North Africa - GDP growth (quarterly data, % annual change )


Severe political and social unrest, such as that experienced by Arab Spring countries,is generally accompanied by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes.The recovery is often sluggish leading to increased unemployment, lower domesticand foreign investment, and fiscal deficits. With declining reserves, high external vul-nerabilities can lead to large currency depreciation, which may give rise to higher in-flation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in Egypt and Tunisia andrequire the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures.

Steady growth in oil exporters countries

In Namibia, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 accelerated by 4.3% compa-red to 0.7% in the previous quarter. This rebound was brought about by Agriculture,Mining and electricity, and water sectors real value added, which increased by21.1%, 47.7%, and 17.2% respectively. Despite moderating industrial output, Se-negal’s GDP growth also showed a bullish trend, reaching 5.2% in the fourth quar-ter, up from 3.7% in the previous quarter.

Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw its GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourthquarter of 2012, up half a percent from 6.5% in the third quarter. Severe floods in thecountry in mid-2012 led to the deaths of 363 people and displaced 2.1 million, withmajor impacts not only to affected populations, but also to infrastructure and theeconomy as a whole. However, the implementation of power sector reform and re-bound after the floods are expected to boost growth in 2013. Ghana is now the se-cond biggest oil-producer in the continent after Nigeria, supplanting Angola in therankings. The dramatic rise of Ghana’s economy during 2011-2012 is discussed inthe Focus section below.

Africa’s oil-exporting countries should continue to perform well, although expecta-tions need to be tempered on account of weakening global economic growth, whichis depressing oil prices. Oil output estimates for the first quarter 2013 indicate thattotal crude oil production in the four OPEC members (Algeria, Angola, Libya, andNigeria) is roughly stabilizing. Recent falls in the price of oil have seen Brent crudedropping below US$ 100 per barrel for the first time since July 2012 and West TexasIntermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. This represents a fall of 9% in the first halfof April 2013 alone. Some forecasters believe that OPEC may cut production toshore up oil prices, although growth in oil demand is likely to continue from China.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

� Africa in the World Economy Economic Growth ...

2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth� Africa in the World Economy

Table 4 : Real GDP growth (%)

2011 2012 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4

6.1 3.7 3.3 7.6 5.4 3.1 3.2 3.2

1.8 4.4 0.3 0.4 5.2 3.3 4.3 4.9

15.0 7.9 14.1 15.9 10.3 9.1 7.0 6.0

4.4 4.7 3.8 4.9 3.2 3.5 4.6 …

3.5 3.3 4.0 2.2 3.0 2.9 3.7 …

4.9 2.4 5.0 4.9 2.8 2.3 2.9 2.0

Namibia 5.3 5.4 5.3 10.4 5.5 11.5 0.7 4.3

7.8 6.5 7.4 7.7 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.0

Rwanda 8.3 8.0 11.9 8.4 7.0 9.4 6.9 8.7

2.1 3.8 6.1 -1.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 5.2

3.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.3

6.4 6.9 5.9 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.5 …

-2.0 3.6 -1.5 -1.4 4.6 2.1 3.5 4.0

4.8 6.6 5.8 -0.1 2.7 5.3 8.2 10.1


Egypt

Country

!! % change on previous year !! % change on same quarter of previous year

Botswana

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda

Ghana

Kenya

Mauritius

Morocco

Nigeria

Senegal

Arab Spring countries, is generally accompanied by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes. The recovery is often sluggish leading to increased unemployment, lower domestic and foreign investment, and fiscal deficits. With declining reserves, high external vulnerabilities can lead to large currency depreciation, which may give rise to higher inflation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in Egypt and Tunisia and require the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures.

Steady growth in oil exporters countries

In Namibia, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 accelerated by 4.3% compared to 0.7% in the previous quarter. This rebound was brought about by Agriculture, Mining and electricity, and water sectors real value added, which increased by 21.1%, 47.7%, and 17.2% respectively. Despite moderating industrial output, Senegal’s GDP growth also showed a bullish trend, reaching 5.2% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.7% in the previous quarter.

Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw its GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2012, up half a percent from 6.5% in the third quarter. Severe floods in the country in mid-2012 led to the deaths of 363 people and displaced 2.1 million, with major impacts not only to affected populations, but also to infrastructure and the economy as a whole. However, the implementation of power sector reform and rebound after the floods are expected to boost growth in 2013. Ghana is now the second biggest oil-producer in the continent after Nigeria, supplanting Angola in the rankings. The dramatic rise of Ghana’s economy during 2011-2012 is discussed in the Focus section below.

Africa’s oil-exporting countries should continue to perform well, although expectations need to be tempered on account of weakening global economic growth, which is depressing oil prices. Oil output estimates for the first quarter 2013 indicate that total crude oil production in the four OPEC members (Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing. Recent falls in the price of oil have seen Brent crude dropping below US$ 100 per barrel for the first time since July 2012 and West Texas Intermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. This represents a fall of 9% in the first half of April 2013 alone. Some forecasters believe that OPEC may cut production to

??

Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day)

Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterlydata, % annual change )


� Africa in the World Economy Focus (1/3) ...

Ghanaian economy

Economic growth boosted by oil sector

The discovery of oil reserves, which positioned Ghana in second place after Nigeriain terms of oil production in Sub-Saharan Africa, has given a major boost to the na-tion’s growth prospects. The global economic crisis of 2008–2009 saw GDP growthdecelerate from 8.4% in 2008 to 4% in 2009. Indeed, the economy registered anaverage annual growth of 4.5% between 2001 and 2010. However, the country’sGDP growth of 8.0% in 2010 and 15% in 2011 was not solely due to its traditionalmajor exports of gold and cocoa. It was the discovery and the start of oil extractionat the Jubilee field that fueled the strong economic performance of 2011.

In 2012, economic output is estimated to have expanded at a slower but steadyrate of 7.9%. As the contribution of industrial sector faded across 2012, due to thevanishing of base drift effects from the oil sector, growth moderated from 9% in thefirst quarter to just 6% in the last quarter of 2012. The growth pattern is also illus-trated by the composite index of real economic activity, computed by Bank of Ghana.This corroborates the deceleration across 2012, but with a moderate upturn at theend of the year. Both business and consumer confidence indexes in January 2013rebounded strongly, pointing to positive expectations and strengthening activity forthe year ahead.

From the demand side, public and private consumption was stimulated by oil in-comes, the rise of the wages of public sector workers, and subsidies on fuel prices.On the supply side, national income was boosted by high prices of raw materials –especially oil, gold and cocoa, which increased export revenues. With the emer-gence of the oil industry, the value added of the industrial sector accounts for one-fourth of total GDP.

Ghana’s exports of crude oil for the year 2012 surpassed cocoa in terms of value.The percentage share of total exports was: cocoa at 20.7%, oil at 23%; with gold stillin first position at 54.2%. The contribution of the services sector to GDP growth re-mains decisive. According to Ghana Statistical Service, the services sector accoun-ted for about 45.5% of GDP in 2012, thanks to the dynamism of thetelecommunications and trade sectors.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly data, % annual change )

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day)

AlgeriaAngolaLibyaNigeria

-1,6729

65,2726

132,2181

199,1636

266,1090

333,0545

400,0000

08 09 10 11 12

After a temporary slowdown in 2009, Ghana’s economy has witnessed a resurgence since 2010, expanding by 15% in 2011. De-cember 2010 marked the start of its oil production, which has delivered a massive boost to the economy. In recent years, exportshave also been buoyed by high cocoa and gold prices. Construction and service activities, which now account for 50% of GDP, havealso performed well. Supported by fiscal tightening measures and currency adjustments introduced in 2009, the country’s ma-croeconomic fundamentals have further strengthened. In 2012, the economy expanded at a steady rate of 7.9%, amid rising fiscaland external imbalances. Momentum has continued into 2013, despite fading base effects from oil extraction. Fiscal and monetarypolicies have succeeded in reining in inflation to single digits. Meanwhile, much remains to be done to achieve solid macroecono-mic stability and sustainable economic development for the long term. The discovery of oil is at the same time an opportunity andsource of risk for Ghana.

??

Ghana : GDP growth and sectoral contributions (quarterly data, %)

Ghana: Economic activity (monthly composite index)


Current account balance remains healthy

Despite the rise in oil exports, Ghana’s current account continues to post a high de-ficit, mainly due to the deterioration in the trade balance. The current account com-ponent of the balance of payments amounted to -12.64% of GDP in 2012, accordingto the IMF. Total merchandise imports amounted to US$17.7 billion in 2012, an in-crease of 12.1% over 2011. Non-oil imports grew by 13.9% to US$14.4 billion, whileoil imports grew moderately by 5%.

These developments resulted in a trade deficit of US$4.2 billion in 2012, comparedwith US$3.1 billion in 2011. Imports will continue to grow at a rapid pace in line withthe dynamism of domestic demand and the oil sector requirements in capital goods.Servicing the current account deficit will hinge on strong capital inflows, includingforeign direct investments in the oil sector and bond purchases by nonresident in-vestors. The overall balance of payments therefore recorded a deficit of US$1.2 bil-lion in 2012, reversing the surplus of US$546.5 million achieved in 2011.

The balance of services and incomes will also continue to weigh on the current ac-count deficit, mainly through the repatriation of dividends by nonresident investors,in spite of a positive but modest contribution from current transfers.

Raising public deficit

Provisional data on Ghana’s public finances and the execution of the budget during2012 showed that total revenue and grants increased by around 30%, compared tothe previous year, on account of higher revenue from petroleum taxes and an in-crease of 20.6% on a year-on-year basis in value added tax collection. The impro-ved performance of import duty was attributed to a number of factors includingincreased imports, improvements in import valuations, and the cedi depreciation du-ring the year. Government spending in 2012 was equivalent to 35.2% of GDP andrecorded 56% growth. On a year-on-year basis, recurrent expenditure grew by64.6%.

Furthermore, non-interest payments accounted for 76.3% of the recurrent expendi-ture. These high non-interest payments were driven mainly by personnel emolumentsand transfers, which together accounted for 82.3% and 71.9% of non-interest ex-penditure and domestic revenues respectively. These developments resulted in abudget deficit equivalent to 12.0% of GDP against a target of 6.7% of GDP andcompared to a deficit equivalent to 4.0 % of GDP in 2011. The deficit was financedlargely from domestic sources. Ghana’s total public debt rose to 46.0% of GDP inDecember 2012 from 34.4% of GDP in December 2011.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Ghanaian economy (continued)??

Ghana : Main exports (quarterly data, current US$)

Ghana : Public finance (millions of GH çedi)

Ghana : Monetary survey (monthly data, year on yearchange in %)



Ghanaian economy (continued)

Inflationary pressures emerge in the first quarter 2013

In mid-2009, Ghana faced high inflationary pressures and a fall in the value of the cediagainst major currencies. This threatened public and external balances and requiredadjustment policies under the Extended Credit Facility granted by the IMF. Sincethen, the situation has improved. However, after posting single-digit inflation in 2011and 2012, the inflation rate rose to 10.4% in March 2013. Inflationary pressures in-clude the pass-through effect of a previous surge in producer prices, combined withpublic sector wage increases, and a sharp increase in government domestic borro-wing.

At the start of 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana maintai-ned its policy rate at 15%, after successive rises introduced during 2012. The cen-tral bank’s Governor sees a broadly positive growth outlook for 2013, underpinnedby private sector credit expansion, improved business and consumer sentimentsand increased oil production in the last quarter of 2012. The BoG may need to tigh-ten its monetary policy to keep inflation below its target rate of 8.5%.

Pressures on exchange rate easing

In 2012, the cumulative depreciation of the cedi for the year stood at 17.5%, com-pared to 5% depreciation in 2011. The Ghanaian cedi has been put under pressurefrom both domestic and external factors. Domestic factors include the surge in im-ports and loose fiscal and monetary policies, while external factors include globalrisk aversion which favors safe haven currencies like the dollar.

The Bank of Ghana has mounted a defense of the cedi, consisting of aggressive in-terest rate hikes, as well as micro and macro prudential measures. Exchange ratetensions are likely to persist in 2013 due to the balance of payments deficit and un-certainties about the level of capital outflows of equities and debt.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

??

Ghana : Inflation and interest rate (monthly data, %)

Ghana : Exchange rate of GH çedi (local currency per US$, monthly average)


World trade volume forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2013

In 2012, world trade volume growth slumped to 2.0%, from 5.2% in 2011. Accor-ding to the WTO, world merchandise trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2013at around 3.3%, as the economic slowdown in the eurozone and high unemploymentdampen import demand. The abrupt deceleration of trade during 2011 and 2012 isbound up with the uneven global recovery, and the slowdown in advanced econo-mies. In 2012, exports of developing economies grew by 3.3%, while imports ofthese countries grew by 4.6%. This is a much stronger performance than that of theadvanced economies, which saw their imports decline by 0.1%.

Trade among developing countries has seen a significant rise over the past decadeand now represents more than 50% of all developing country trade. Even excludingexports to China, trade among developing countries has been very robust. East Asia,South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the regions where this South–South tradegrew fastest, though at a lower rate in countries that have preferential trade agree-ments with high-income economies.

Merchandise imports of African countries decelerated over the course of 2012

After seeing its exports shrink by 8.5% in 2011, Africa rebounded in 2012 to recordthe fastest export growth of any region, at 6.1%. Africa’s imports grew by 11.3%,making it the only region to record double-digit growth.

South Africa’s results for 2012 were less impressive, recording a significant fall of11% in merchandise exports over the year. Notable decreases in inventories were re-gistered in the mining and manufacturing sectors, with production setbacks partlymet by running down stock levels. This contributed to a broadly unchanged volumeof exports in the final quarter of the year, with a recovery in mining exports – espe-cially iron ore and coal – countered by a decline in exports of manufactured goods.The volume of imports receded moderately in the final quarter of 2012, weigheddown largely by lower imports of vehicles and transport equipment.

However, the value of merchandise imports in South Africa increased over the pe-riod, largely due to a significant depreciation of the rand. This also underpinned anincrease in the rand value of exports. Despite a moderate deterioration in the termsof trade, there was a slight narrowing of the trade deficit from the third to the fourthquarter. Simultaneously, the deficit on the services, income and current transfer ac-count contracted marginally, causing the current account deficit to decrease to 6.5%of GDP and this approximate level is expected to be maintained in 2013.

29,632

34,678

39,724

44,770

49,816

54,862

59,908

64,954

70,000

08 09 10 11 12 13


-5,00

-3,75

-2,50

-1,25

0

1,25

2,50

3,75

5,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6

8

10

12

14

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-5,00

-1,25

2,50

6,25

10,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0,7500000000000147

0,8750000000000129

1,0000000000000111

1,1250000000000092

1,2500000000000074

1,3750000000000055

1,5000000000000037

1,6250000000000018

1,7500000000000000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-7,500

-1,875

3,750

9,375

15,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20,00

-11,25

-2,50

6,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6

-2

2

6

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

7,00

630,25

1 253,50

1 876,75

2 500,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-15,00

-3,75

7,50

18,75

30,00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-2250,0

562,5

3375,0

6187,5

9000,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

15

30

45

60

08 09 10 11 12

6

10

14

18

22

08 09 10 11 12 13

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

2,00

08 09 10 11 12 13

-17,374

2,297

21,969

41,641

61,313

80,985

100,656

120,328

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

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60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

-15

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

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50

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150

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

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2 000

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2 500

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4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

�v Africa in the World Economy Foreign Trade ...

2.2 - AFRICA: Merchandise trade??

Graph 12. World merchandise imports (Volume2005Q1=100)

Graph 13. Africa - Merchandise exports (Values in currentUS $, year to year % change)

Graph 14. Africa - Merchandise imports (Values in currentUS $, year to year % change)


� Africa in the World Economy Foreign Trade ...

2.2 - AFRICA: Summary of trade statistics

� Africa in the World Economy

Table 5 : Merchandise trade for selected African countries (%)

Country 2011 Q.1 2011 Q.2 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4

Algeria 11.1 27.0 36.7 29.1 12.5 1.2 -3.9 -7.7

Mauritius 19.9 19.2 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.5

Morocco 30.6 27.0 19.3 11.4 1.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.3

Nigeria 38.3 43.9 35.2 23.6 6.7 0.9 -5.0 -5.8

Tanzania 33.0 24.4 11.8 8.5 13.4 19.1 26.2 21.6

Tunisia 14.4 12.9 9.3 1.9 -4.6 -7.1 -6.9 -3.7

Algeria 19.9 20.0 16.4 4.9 -0.9 -4.9 1.6 6.3

Mauritius 16.3 20.2 15.7 12.7 9.7 5.4 -1.2 -3.8

Morocco 21.2 29.0 25.0 15.6 5.4 -1.6 -2.0 -1.8

Nigeria 34.9 31.9 26.1 -0.1 -4.1 -11.4 -8.8 -2.1

Tanzania 23.3 33.9 45.3 41.6 25.1 9.1 2.4 3.8

Tunisia 4.2 8.5 10.8 10.3 4.5 2.4 -1.3 0.6

Country

Algeria 17183.9 18950.1 18692.9 18669.6 15702.5 13927.6 13456.0 13646.6Angola 14077.2 14301.4 15007.0 16112.2 17686.2 17865.1 15066.1 16041.4Benin 179.1 233.2 215.7 202.8 272.4 221.2 246.2 210.0Burkina Faso 158.3 191.1 214.4 215.6 214.6 244.0 182.1 156.8Cameroon 1220.3 1528.4 1271.3 1240.3 1395.1 1317.9 1333.4 1795.8Congo, Dem. Rep. 1427.0 1393.6 1567.4 1546.9 1440.9 1600.4 1353.2 1231.1Congo, Rep. 2505.3 2741.2 3097.7 2609.4 3182.4 2619.7 2234.6 2782.3Cote d'Ivoire 2154.4 2997.2 3362.6 2359.3 2834.9 2529.5 2522.1 2689.8Djibouti 115.0 124.8 130.7 159.5 137.8 149.6 146.9 142.2Egypt 7157.4 7824.7 7647.2 7841.6 7477.6 6759.1 6535.3 7834.2Equatorial Guinea 2639.1 2762.8 3214.5 3045.0 3418.0 3270.0 3664.3 3784.6Ethiopia 502.8 517.7 528.2 498.9 463.6 512.1 494.7 519.8Gabon 2558.7 2615.0 2376.8 2526.4 2614.9 2607.3 2716.5 2569.7Ghana 1729.2 2194.5 2147.2 2484.1 2170.2 2001.3 1915.4 1847.4Guinea 558.8 664.4 586.5 387.9 605.3 509.0 421.6 467.6Guinea-Bissau 35.0 49.9 82.9 127.2 53.5 50.9 46.0 32.7Libya 10013.4 1866.0 787.3 2980.0 9379.5 14016.1 16233.2 16010.4Madagascar 318.5 359.1 536.6 410.7 486.3 381.2 353.2 499.2Mauritania 809.0 789.5 814.9 633.3 730.9 806.9 662.7 641.7Mauritius 560.2 563.4 552.1 501.8 561.4 576.9 542.4 627.2Morocco 5200.6 5257.2 5484.2 5469.8 5485.4 5098.0 5136.2 5588.4Mozambique 954.5 974.6 771.4 909.9 992.0 1014.2 1021.6 1016.5Niger 114.6 161.1 94.3 161.3 200.5 154.4 84.9 64.0Nigeria 25978.2 28366.3 26964.4 25077.9 27882.1 27828.9 25040.9 26423.3Seychelles 91.5 84.6 85.8 97.7 103.4 104.8 108.7 93.8South Africa 24135.1 24885.6 24507.3 23382.5 23869.1 21844.6 20835.7 21250.8Tunisia 4245.4 4800.2 4526.0 4238.0 4361.2 4218.7 4062.5 4494.6Uganda 601.2 668.1 706.8 607.7 661.4 736.6 778.3 693.1Zambia 2034.8 1631.9 1548.0 1461.3 1337.0 1709.5 1372.4 1496.2Zimbabwe 547.8 728.6 603.0 615.5 675.7 574.0 528.3 595.6


!! % change on same quarter of previous year

Exports

Imports


Country

Algeria 11.1 27.0 36.7 29.1 12.5 1.2 -3.9 -7.7

Mauritius 19.9 19.2 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.5

Morocco 30.6 27.0 19.3 11.4 1.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.3

Nigeria 38.3 43.9 35.2 23.6 6.7 0.9 -5.0 -5.8

Tunisia 14.4 12.9 9.3 1.9 -4.6 -7.1 -6.9 -3.7

Algeria 19.9 20.0 16.4 4.9 -0.9 -4.9 1.6 6.3

Mauritius 16.3 20.2 15.7 12.7 9.7 5.4 -1.2 -3.8

Morocco 21.2 29.0 25.0 15.6 5.4 -1.6 -2.0 -1.8

Nigeria 34.9 31.9 26.1 -0.1 -4.1 -11.4 -8.8 -2.1

Tanzania 23.3 33.9 45.3 41.6 25.1 9.1 2.4 3.8

Tunisia

Table 6 : Exports for selected African countries (current millions of US$, s.a)

Country 2011 Q.1 2011 Q.2 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4Algeria 17183.9 18950.1 18692.9 18669.6 15702.5 13927.6 13456.0 13646.6Angola 14077.2 14301.4 15007.0 16112.2 17686.2 17865.1 15066.1 16041.4Benin 179.1 233.2 215.7 202.8 272.4 221.2 246.2 210.0Burkina Faso 158.3 191.1 214.4 215.6 214.6 244.0 182.1 156.8Cameroon 1220.3 1528.4 1271.3 1240.3 1395.1 1317.9 1333.4 1795.8Congo, Dem. Rep. 1427.0 1393.6 1567.4 1546.9 1440.9 1600.4 1353.2 1231.1Congo, Rep. 2505.3 2741.2 3097.7 2609.4 3182.4 2619.7 2234.6 2782.3Cote d'Ivoire 2154.4 2997.2 3362.6 2359.3 2834.9 2529.5 2522.1 2689.8Djibouti 115.0 124.8 130.7 159.5 137.8 149.6 146.9 142.2Egypt 7157.4 7824.7 7647.2 7841.6 7477.6 6759.1 6535.3 7834.2Equatorial Guinea 2639.1 2762.8 3214.5 3045.0 3418.0 3270.0 3664.3 3784.6Ethiopia 502.8 517.7 528.2 498.9 463.6 512.1 494.7 519.8Gabon 2558.7 2615.0 2376.8 2526.4 2614.9 2607.3 2716.5 2569.7Ghana 1729.2 2194.5 2147.2 2484.1 2170.2 2001.3 1915.4 1847.4Guinea 558.8 664.4 586.5 387.9 605.3 509.0 421.6 467.6Guinea-Bissau 35.0 49.9 82.9 127.2 53.5 50.9 46.0 32.7Libya 10013.4 1866.0 787.3 2980.0 9379.5 14016.1 16233.2 16010.4Madagascar 318.5 359.1 536.6 410.7 486.3 381.2 353.2 499.2Mauritania 809.0 789.5 814.9 633.3 730.9 806.9 662.7 641.7Mauritius 560.2 563.4 552.1 501.8 561.4 576.9 542.4 627.2Morocco 5200.6 5257.2 5484.2 5469.8 5485.4 5098.0 5136.2 5588.4Mozambique 954.5 974.6 771.4 909.9 992.0 1014.2 1021.6 1016.5Niger 114.6 161.1 94.3 161.3 200.5 154.4 84.9 64.0Nigeria 25978.2 28366.3 26964.4 25077.9 27882.1 27828.9 25040.9 26423.3Seychelles 91.5 84.6 85.8 97.7 103.4 104.8 108.7 93.8South Africa 24135.1 24885.6 24507.3 23382.5 23869.1 21844.6 20835.7 21250.8Tunisia 4245.4 4800.2 4526.0 4238.0 4361.2 4218.7 4062.5 4494.6Uganda 601.2 668.1 706.8 607.7 661.4 736.6 778.3 693.1Zambia 2034.8 1631.9 1548.0 1461.3 1337.0 1709.5 1372.4 1496.2Zimbabwe 547.8 728.6 603.0 615.5 675.7 574.0 528.3 595.6


??


Commodity prices showing signs of a slowdown

During March 2013, prices for most commodities fell close to their December 2012levels. Concerns over the slowdown in China’s economy, intensified by the an-nouncement of new measures to curb the country’s real estate sector, hit base metalprices particularly hard. Raw material prices have also been hurt by the US dollar’ssurge since the start of 2013. The IMF commodity price index was down in March2013 by 3.7% on a monthly basis, following an increase of 1.6% recorded in Fe-bruary.

Crude oil futures fell on reduced refinery demand

The energy index dropped by 4.1% in March, following an increase of 2.3% in theprevious month. At the time of writing (mid-April 2013), prices have seen a markeddecrease, with Brent crude below US$100 per barrel for the first time since July2012 and West Texas intermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. Both have fallen9% in the first half of April.

Fundamental factors are primarily responsible for the price retreat. Austerity mea-sures in the eurozone have seen consumers cutting back on personal expenditure,including gasoline. Demand remains very low and the International Energy Agencyhas downgraded the global demand forecast for 2013. Also, the surge in U.S. pro-duction is putting the brakes on prices.

Precious and industrial metals prices down in March and April

Downside pressures on industrial metal prices are largely associated with slowerglobal economic growth, rising domestic production, and relatively high inventories.Combined with growing concerns over the Chinese economy, these developmentshad a dampening effect on industrial metal prices Gold prices decreased signifi-cantly during the first quarter of 2013. April 15 saw its biggest tumble in two years(to US$1,321 per ounce), compared to its high of US$ 1,921 in September 2011. Sil-ver has also seen a drop of 11%. Various factors are at play here: the sell-off of goldreserves by Cyprus sending worrying signals, weaker economic data coming out ofChina, plus the US dollar’s surge. The drop in prices, despite the highly accommo-dative policies taken by many central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, raisessome doubt about gold’s potential to maintain its upward trajectory of recent years.

Cereal prices have been moving in the opposite direction since the start of 2013, withwheat retreating more than 10%. Global wheat production is expected to recover in2013 though, after the major drought that hit eastern Europe in 2012. After mode-rating at the end of 2012, corn prices have risen by more than 5% since the start of2013.

Weak economic growth in several major economies is curbing demand for commo-dities. This, together with a supply that exceeds demand, should keep the lid oncommodity prices in the months to come. However, if global growth accelerates asexpected at mid-year, prices could start to trend upward again.

-40

-30

-20

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0

10

20

30

40

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60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

-15

10

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

75

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125

150

175

200

225

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275

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

-15

10

35

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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0

10

20

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

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125

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

� Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices ...

2.3 - AFRICA: Commodity trends??

Graph 15. Commodity prices (indexes, 100=2005)

Graph 16. Crude oil (US$ per barrel)

Graph 17. Cocoa beans (US$ / metric tonne)


� Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices ...

2.3 - AFRICA: Summary of commodity prices


Table 7 : Commodity Prices

Commodity 2011 2012 2012 /2011Mar 2013 /Feb 2013

Q1 2013 / Q4 2012

Q1 2013 / Q1 2012

Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 % % %

EnergyCoal, Australia, $/mt 121.4 96.4 92.8 94.9 92.2 -20.7 ! 7.4 -17.9Crude oil, Brent, $/b 110.9 112.0 113.0 116.5 109.2 0.9 !! 2.2 -4.8Crude oil, WTI, $/b 95.1 94.2 94.7 95.3 92.9 -0.9 ! 7.0 -8.3Natural gas, Europe, $/mmbtu 10.5 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.9 9.1 " 0.9 2.8Agriculture

Beverages & oils

Cocoa, c/kg 298.0 239.2 227.5 219.8 215.3 -19.7 ! -9.9 -5.6Coffee, Arabica, c/kg 597.6 411.1 346.8 329.5 330.2 -31.2 # -6.1 -31.1Coffee, Robusta, c/kg 240.8 226.7 219.8 229.3 234.3 -5.8 " 3.8 2.6Tea, Kokata auctions, c/kg 277.9 275.0 266.0 253.1 255.1 -1.0 " -11.4 25.7Tea, Mombasa auctions, c/kg 271.9 288.1 305.2 291.3 265.5 5.9 !! -4.2 7.7Palm oil ($/mt) 1 125.4 999.3 841.0 863.0 854.0 -11.2 ! 5.4 -23.0Soybean oil ($/mt) 1 299.3 1 226.3 1 190.0 1 175.0 1 116.0 -5.6 !! 0.2 -7.4

Grains

Maize, $/mt 291.7 298.4 303.1 302.7 309.0 2.3 " -3.8 9.8Rice, Thailand, 5%, $/mt 543.0 563.0 564.2 563.0 559.0 3.7 ! 0.7 3.6Sorghum, $/mt 268.7 271.9 291.0 288.1 296.7 1.2 " 2.3 8.3Wheat, US, SRW, $/mt 285.9 295.4 309.0 298.0 285.9 3.3 ! -11.8 14.9

Other Food

Bananas, EU, $/mt 1 124.7 1 099.7 1 095.6 1 112.4 937.0 -2.2 !!! -4.9 -8.2Beef, c/kg 968.0 984.0 928.7 923.2 937.0 1.7 " -1.6 -11.7Oranges, $/mt 404.2 414.2 430.7 428.0 422.7 2.5 ! 1.9 0.6Sugar, EU, c/kg 1 537.4 1 558.3 1 919.0 1 884.0 1 802.0 1.4 ! 5.2 43.8Sugar, world, c/kg 891.1 868.0 739.2 883.6 907.0 -2.6 " -2.2 9.4Raw Materials

TimberLogs, Cameroon, $/cum 484.8 451.4 465.6 466.9 436.2 -6.9 !! 0.7 -1.6Plywood, c/sheets 390.5 360.5 334.1 319.7 313.8 -7.7 ! -8.6 -13.6Sawnwood, Cameroon, $/cum 607.5 610.3 612.9 586.4 575.6 0.5 ! -3.3 -3.5

Other Raw MaterialsCotton, A Index, c/kg 332.9 196.7 188.5 197.8 208.2 -40.9 "" 9.5 -10.5Rubber, Singapore, c/kg 482.3 337.7 330.4 318.6 297.6 -30.0 !! 1.9 -18.1DAP, $/mt 618.9 539.8 485.0 482.3 507.5 -12.8 "" -7.6 -4.8Phosphate rock, $/mt 184.9 185.9 179.0 170.0 170.0 0.5 # -6.5 -11.7Metals and MineralsAluminum, $/ton 2 401.4 2 023.3 2 037.8 2 053.6 1 909.6 -15.7 !! -0.1 -8.2Copper, $/mt 8 828.2 7 962.3 8 047.4 8 060.9 7 645.6 -9.8 !! 0.1 -4.8Gold, $/toz 1 569.2 1 669.5 1 671.8 1 627.6 1 593.1 6.4 ! -5.1 -3.6Iron ore, c/dmtu 167.8 128.5 150.8 154.7 139.9 -23.4 !! 22.8 4.7Lead, c/kg 240.1 206.5 233.4 236.6 216.9 -14.0 !! 4.0 9.5Nickel, $/mt 22 910.4 17 547.5 17 472.5 17 690.1 16 724.9 -23.4 !! 1.8 -11.9Silver, c/toz 3 522.4 3 113.7 3 106.2 3 032.9 2 879.1 -11.6 !! -7.8 -7.7Tin, c/kg 2 605.4 2 112.6 2 454.6 2 421.2 2 329.7 -18.9 ! 11.1 4.9Zinc, c/kg 219.4 195.0 203.2 212.9 192.6 -11.1 !!! 3.9 0.2Platinum ($/troy oz) 1 719.5 1 550.8 1 638.9 1 674.6 1 583.0 -9.8 !! 2.1 1.7

!!/"" slight (-/+) change !!!!/"""" moderate (-/+) change !!!!!!/"""""" large (-/+) change


2013

Source : World Bank

??


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Africa in the World Economy Inflation / Money Supply ...

2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply

Inflation easing, with notable exceptions

After a continuous upward trend from the end of 2010 to mid-2012, inflation in Africaedged down in the latter part of 2012 and this has continued into 2013. Although in-flation seems to have largely been contained in most African countries, there are afew notable exceptions such as Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia, as detailed below.

Many central banks in the continent reacted to weakening inflation pressures andmoderate growth by easing monetary policy. In addition, the weak global environ-ment encouraged many central banks to cut their policy rates, in an effort to injectliquidity into real economy. Kenya and Uganda were among the most aggressive incutting policy rates in 2012. High inflation rates experienced during 2011 in thesecountries, and also in Tanzania, have eased since the end of 2011, partly as a resultof favorable rains and as a result of more stringent monetary policies. In Kenya, wheremonetary tightening had been deployed to rein in inflation, the headline inflation rateincreased slightly in February (4.5%) and March (4.1%), from a low of 3.3% in No-vember 2012. In Tanzania, the annual inflation rate for March 2013 declined to 9.8%from 10.4% the previous month, with food inflation rate decreasing by one percen-tage point to 10.7% in March from 11.7% in February. In Uganda, the annual head-line Inflation rate for March 2013 rose to 4.0% from 3.5% recorded in the previousmonth.

In Namibia, inflation edged down to 6.2% in February and March, from 6.6% recor-ded in January, as a result of slight drops in the price of food and non-alcoholic be-verages.

Rising inflationary pressures in some countries

Although a disinflationary trend generally prevailed across the continent, domesticfactors are fueling inflation in some countries (Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia). Po-litical unrest is causing supply shortages in some North African countries (Tunisia,Egypt), and this is driving up domestic food prices and inching up inflation rates. InEgypt, the urban inflation rate has accelerated steeply over the past 4 months, from4.7% in December 2012 to 7.6% in March 2013.

In Tunisia, in response to political turmoil and social protest, as well as decliningworld commodity prices in general, transition governments during 2011 and 2012 in-creased food and fuel subsidies. They also increased public sector wages in res-ponse to rising unemployment (officially at 17%) and poverty. However, maintainingthe subsidies has proved challenging for the government, which fears a budget de-ficit of around 6% in 2013. In response, the authorities raised the price of state-controlled milk in early 2012 and then the price of gasoline at the pumps by around6.8%. In March 2013 the government imposed a levy of 1% on salaries above 1,700dinars ($1,075) per month to help fund remaining subsidies on fuel and food. Thewithdrawal of some subsidies has driven up inflation to 6.5% in March 2013, withfood inflation hitting two digits and fuel prices rising by nearly 7%.

-40

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

75

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125

150

175

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225

250

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5,000

18,750

32,499

46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40

-15

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

75

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

15,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

6

9

12

15

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

??

Graph 18. Africa - Inflation (monthly data, median values)

Graph 19. Inflation in the Horn of Africa (monthly data, %change m/m-12)

Graph 20. Inflation : consumer prices (monthly data, %change m/m-12)


� Africa in the World Economy Inflation / Money Supply ...

2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply

Similarly, core inflation measured by the CPI (excluding food and energy), exhibiteda steady upward trend during 2012 and persisted into 2013, triggered mainly by thesurge in commodity prices. This suggests that the pass-through effects of the pu-blic sector wages increase and rise in imported prices have yet to surface. Howe-ver, Tunisian producer prices remained stable during the year. This reflects profitmargin cutting by domestic producers to preserve their competitiveness. In order toaddress the country's fiscal and balance of payments deficits and create conditionsfor a sustained recovery of the economy, the central bank of Tunisia is maintaining atight monetary policy stance.

After registering single-digit inflation rates for both 2011 and 2012, Ghana is seeinga recent rise caused by a delayed pass-through of increased producer prices com-bined with public sector wage increases granted and a sharp increase in governmentdomestic borrowing (see Focus).

Stagflation risk in South Africa !

The SARB (South Africa Reserve Bank) has warned of the risk of stagflation, cha-racterized by low growth and rising inflation. Inflation in March 2013 rose to 6% – thetop end of the Reserve Bank’s target – after increasing by 5.9% in February. Slug-gish global demand combined with domestic structural constraints to growth, a de-preciating rand, and above-inflation wage hikes have been contributory factors. Inregard to the monetary sector, credit growth trends have reflected monetary policyand rising inflation. Private sector credit growth slowed to 7.9% in February 2012from almost 10% in late 2012, while aggregate money supply accelerated to 7.7%in February from 5.2% growth in December 2012 and 6.7% in January 2013.

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2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

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??

Graph 21. Inflation : producer prices (manufacturing,monthly data, % change m/m-12)

Graph 22. South Africa : money and credits (monthly data,% change on previous year)


� Africa in the World Economy Inflation ...

2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation summary


Table 9 : In!ation on consumer prices (in %) % change on same quarter of previous year

2013Country Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1Algeria 4.0 5.3 5.3 9.0 9.5 8.0 9.1 6.6Angola 14.6 13.2 11.3 11.3 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.0Benin 2.1 3.5 1.9 6.5 6.7 6.5 7.4 2.5Botswana 8.0 8.4 9.1 8.3 7.5 7.1 7.3 7.5Burkina Faso 2.0 3.2 4.9 3.3 3.8 4.7 3.4 2.5Burundi 8.0 10.6 15.0 22.7 20.9 15.9 13.2 7.6Cameroon 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.9Cape Verde 5.2 4.7 4.1 2.5 1.5 2.3 3.9 3.4Central African Republic 2.4 -0.1 0.3 5.8 4.7 4.6 ... ...Chad -3.2 -8.1 -6.0 -3.7 6.6 20.9 17.6 ...Comoros 1.5 -0.2 0.6 3.2 4.0 19.1 23.5 19.4Congo, Rep. 1.9 0.2 1.7 -1.2 0.2 8.0 8.7 7.1Côte d'Ivoire 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.6 -1.4 2.0 3.1 3.4Djibouti 4.7 4.0 5.2 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.9 ...Egypt 12.0 9.1 8.5 8.9 8.1 6.4 5.2 7.4Equatorial Guinea 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.0 ... ... ...Ethiopia 33.9 40.3 38.3 33.4 25.4 20.3 ... ...Gabon 1.5 2.7 1.3 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.4Gambia, The 5.5 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 ... ...Ghana 8.8 8.4 8.6 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.7Guinea 22.6 21.7 20.2 17.8 15.5 14.7 13.1 ...Guinea-Bissau 6.6 5.4 3.5 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 ...Kenya 13.2 16.4 19.1 17.1 11.8 6.3 3.5 4.1Lesotho 4.4 5.4 6.9 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.9Liberia 8.0 9.1 10.7 9.2 7.2 4.5 6.6 ...Libya 12.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Madagascar 10.0 8.8 7.5 5.3 6.9 6.7 6.6 5.6Malawi 7.0 7.6 9.0 10.8 16.6 25.2 32.8 ...Mali 2.8 2.1 4.2 5.4 7.3 5.6 3.5 -0.2Mauritania 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 4.9 ... ...Mauritius 6.9 6.6 6.0 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.3Morocco 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3Mozambique 11.2 7.7 7.2 3.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 ...Namibia 5.1 5.2 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.2 7.0 6.4Niger 2.5 2.9 2.8 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.5Nigeria 11.3 10.0 10.4 12.0 12.8 12.0 12.0 9.2Rwanda 5.1 7.1 7.9 8.0 7.0 5.7 4.6 5.3Sao Tome and Principe 16.9 14.5 12.5 11.0 9.2 11.4 11.0 10.4Senegal 4.5 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.2Seychelles 2.0 2.8 4.8 6.1 8.0 7.8 6.5 6.4Sierra Leone 17.0 16.4 17.1 15.6 12.9 11.8 11.4 11.7South Africa 4.6 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.1 5.6 5.7Sudan 16.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Swaziland 6.7 6.1 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.1 ...Tanzania, United Rep. 9.7 14.5 18.9 19.5 18.1 14.6 12.3 10.4Togo 4.8 3.3 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 3.2Tunisia 3.1 3.7 4.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.1Uganda 15.3 22.8 28.8 24.2 18.9 10.6 4.9 4.2Zambia 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.4 ... ...


2011 2012

??


Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues ...

2.5 - AFRICA: Financial indicators

Currency depreciation against the US dollar

Consistent with slowing global activity and decelerating world trade, gross foreign re-serves moderated in general across the continent during 2012. By contrast, in theaftermath of Arab Spring and with continuing political uncertainties, international re-serves held in US dollars declined sharply in Tunisia and Egypt, leading to more in-tense pressures on external stability. At the end of March 2013, Egypt’s foreignreserves reached new critical levels of US$ 13.4 billion, as net international reservesofficially tallied, posting a 11.2% drop compared to the same period of previous year.The nation's reserves have fallen sharply from US$36 billion since the popular upri-sing in 2011.

As prospects for global growth remained modest and weighed by uncertainties at theturn of 2012–2013, almost major African currencies depreciated against the US dol-lar. In Egypt, the recent move to a more flexible exchange rate aimed to reduce themisalignment in the exchange rate. This led to a sharp devaluation of the Egyptianpound against the US dollar in March 2013, with a 9.8% loss compared to Decem-ber 2012.

The weakening of the South African rand also continued in line with the downgradingof South Africa’s sovereign credit rating and the widening of the current account de-ficit. In Kenya, between February and March, the Kenyan shilling registered a 1.9%gain against the US dollar.

Sub-Saharan stock markets are booming

In recent years, developments in many Sub-Saharan Africa economies have caughtthe attention of international investors looking for higher returns in emerging mar-kets. Parallel with the uptrend in global stock markets since mid-2012, African equityindexes overall have registered robust performances, despite some divergencesamong subregions. North Africa is one exception, where the current environment isweighing heavily on equity markets and dampening investor confidence.

Stock markets in West Africa posted good performances in the first quarter of 2013.The BRVM index climbed by 18.2% between December 2012 and March 2013, asthe outlook for the subregion strengthened. At the same time, Botswana, Kenya,Mauritius and Nigeria, all recorded a double-digit uptick in stock markets.

The rally in South Africa's equity market during the second half of 2012 has tempe-red somewhat since the start of 2013. The strong performance displayed by the do-mestic share market in 2012 continued, helped by higher international equity prices,improving business sentiment, and the depreciation in the exchange value of therand. The FTSE/JSE All-Share Price Index increased by around 2.0% in March 2013from December 2012 and by 18.8% compared to 12 months previously.

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Graph 23. Total reserves (billions of current US$)

Graph 24. Exchange rates : Kenya & South Africa (nationalcurrency per US $)

Graph 25. Stock market indexes (100=2005)


� Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues ...

2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators


Table 10 : Exchange rates for selected countries (national currency per U.S$, period average)

Country 2011 2012 Q.1 2013 / Q4 2012

Q.1 2013 / Q1 2012

Mar.2013/ Mar.2012

January February March

Algeria 72.94 77.61 78.26 78.14 79.16 -0.8 4.8 6.6

Botswana 6.838 7.620 7.938 8.004 8.215 2.1 10.2 13.4

Ethiopia 16.90 17.79 18.31 18.39 18.46 1.2 5.7 5.6

Ghana 1.504 1.852 1.903 1.907 1.928 1.2 11.8 10.7

Mauritius 28.71 30.12 30.60 30.62 31.06 -0.4 5.4 6.9

Morocco 8.090 8.631 8.397 8.366 8.576 -1.4 -0.6 1.6

Nigeria 153.90 158.80 156.86 157.48 158.39 0.2 -1.0 0.5

Sierra Leone 4,348.6 4,344.7 4,329.9 4,323.7 4,319.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.8

Uganda 2,522.7 2,504.5 2,683.5 2,655.4 2,634.0 1.2 10.4 6.1

WAEMU 471.9 510.4 493.4 491.4 506.4 -1.7 -0.7 2.0

Country


Botswana 6,970.9 7,510.2 7,799.1 7,946.0 8,400.0 11.8 5.7 19.0

Egypt 3,622.4 5,462.4 5,576.0 5,546.4 5,098.8 -6.7 -8.1 1.6

Kenya 3,205.0 4,133.0 4,416.6 4,513.6 4,830.4 16.9 7.0 43.5

Mauritius 1,888.4 1,732.1 1,800.7 1,866.3 1,925.5 11.2 3.2 -4.8

Morocco 9,011.6 7,614.0 7,329.3 7,273.5 7,364.1 -3.3 1.2 -17.8

Namibia 838.2 983.8 991.2 974.2 966.2 -1.8 -0.8 9.0

South Africa 31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6 39,860.8 1.6 0.4 18.8

Tanzania 1,303.2 1,485.6 1,488.1 1,505.8 1,521.5 2.4 1.0 14.0

Tunisia 4,722.3 4,579.9 4,746.5 4,638.8 4,725.7 3.2 1.9 -2.0


Naira-Nigeria

Leone

Ugandan shilling

Currency

Pula-Botswana

Ethiopian Birr

Cedi-Ghana

Mauritius Rupee

Dirham-Morocco

CFA Franc

2013

% change

Algerian Dinar


Country


Algeria 72.94 77.61 78.26 78.14 79.16 -0.8 4.8 6.6

Botswana 6.838 7.620 7.938 8.004 8.215 2.1 10.2 13.4

Ghana 1.504 1.852 1.903 1.907 1.928 1.2 11.8 10.7

Mauritius 28.71 30.12 30.60 30.62 31.06 -0.4 5.4 6.9

Morocco 8.090 8.631 8.397 8.366 8.576 -1.4 -0.6 1.6

Nigeria 153.90 158.80 156.86 157.48 158.39 0.2 -1.0 0.5

Sierra Leone 4,348.6 4,344.7 4,329.9 4,323.7 4,319.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.8

Uganda 2,522.7 2,504.5 2,683.5 2,655.4 2,634.0 1.2 10.4 6.1

WAEMU 471.9 510.4 493.4 491.4 506.4 -1.7 -0.7 2.0

Table 11 : Stock market indexes for selected countries (end of period quotes, %)

Country 2011 2012 Mar.2013/ Dec.2012

Mar.2013/ Feb.2013

Mar.2013/ Mar.2012


Botswana 6,970.9 7,510.2 7,799.1 7,946.0 8,400.0 11.8 5.7 19.0

Egypt 3,622.4 5,462.4 5,576.0 5,546.4 5,098.8 -6.7 -8.1 1.6

Kenya 3,205.0 4,133.0 4,416.6 4,513.6 4,830.4 16.9 7.0 43.5

Mauritius 1,888.4 1,732.1 1,800.7 1,866.3 1,925.5 11.2 3.2 -4.8

Morocco 9,011.6 7,614.0 7,329.3 7,273.5 7,364.1 -3.3 1.2 -17.8

Namibia 838.2 983.8 991.2 974.2 966.2 -1.8 -0.8 9.0

South Africa 31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6 39,860.8 1.6 0.4 18.8

Tanzania 1,303.2 1,485.6 1,488.1 1,505.8 1,521.5 2.4 1.0 14.0

Tunisia 4,722.3 4,579.9 4,746.5 4,638.8 4,725.7 3.2 1.9 -2.0


Index

Tunindex

All Share Index

2013

% change

Gaborone Index

EGX 30 Index

Nairobi All Share

Semdex

Madex Free Float Index

Overall Index

FTSE/JSE All Share

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1,000

1,963

2,926

3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

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50

60

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-40

-15

10

35

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2030405060708090

100110120130140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

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3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

3,75

7,50

11,25

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-6,000

-1,110

3,779

8,669

13,558

18,448

23,338

28,227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-3

0

3

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9

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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18,750

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46,249

59,999

73,748

87,498

101,248

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1,963

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3,889

4,851

5,814

6,777

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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100

150

200

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300

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

??

Graph 26. Exchange rates : Tunisia & Egypt (national cur-rency per US $)

Graph 26. Graph 27. Stock market indexes (100=2005)





Table 12 : Exchange rates (national currency per US$) Period average

2013

Country Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1Algeria 71.87 73.09 74.37 74.95 75.59 80.71 79.19 78.52Angola 93.28 93.61 94.90 95.05 95.29 95.42 95.63 96.02Benin 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Botswana 6.524 6.770 7.413 7.307 7.586 7.702 7.884 8.052Burkina Faso 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Burundi 1239.3 1254.7 1313.3 1392.5 1404.9 1464.1 1505.3 1592.6Cameroon 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Cape Verde 76.62 78.15 81.82 84.12 86.01 88.15 85.00 83.53Central African Rep. 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Chad 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Comoros 341.8 348.7 365.1 375.3 383.7 393.3 379.2 372.7Congo, Dem. Rep. of 923.2 921.8 910.3 919.7 922.3 919.1 915.9 917.1Congo, Republic of 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Côte d'Ivoire 455.7 464.8 487.0 500.4 511.5 524.2 505.6 497.1Djibouti 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7Egypt 5.951 5.961 5.991 6.035 6.043 6.080 6.124 6.688Equatorial Guinea 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Eritrea 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38Ethiopia 16.887 17.083 17.235 17.399 17.633 17.957 18.165 18.387Gabon 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Gambia, The 28.00 28.43 28.93 30.32 30.26 32.15 32.04 33.70Ghana 1.510 1.532 1.625 1.711 1.871 1.936 1.890 1.913Guinea 6718.8 6841.0 6997.2 7162.8 7096.6 7175.9 7002.4 7008.8Guinea-Bissau 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Kenya 86.1 93.2 93.7 84.1 84.1 84.3 85.6 86.7Lesotho 6.793 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954Liberia 72.32 72.48 71.94 73.34 74.81 73.64 72.27 ...Libya 1.209 1.214 1.237 1.253 1.263 1.272 1.259 ...Madagascar 1961.4 1983.4 2123.7 2185.8 2123.6 2248.7 2238.3 2223.2Malawi 150.8 159.3 165.3 165.9 225.3 283.0 322.9 366.7Mali 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Mauritania 274.4 280.0 288.2 292.2 293.3 300.5 299.2 296.6Mauritius 27.95 28.29 29.14 29.19 29.67 30.70 30.90 30.76Morocco 7.870 8.001 8.310 8.493 8.645 8.819 8.566 8.447Mozambique 30.13 27.32 26.81 27.29 27.80 28.42 29.58 30.23Namibia 6.793 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954Niger 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Nigeria 155.4 154.3 160.3 159.2 159.4 159.3 157.3 157.6Rwanda 600.2 600.1 602.1 605.4 608.5 614.8 628.3 633.2São Tomé & Príncipe 17022.8 17364.6 18174.5 18702.6 19094.9 19583.2 18893.0 18548.8Senegal 455.76 464.92 486.74 500.41 511.65 524.40 505.65 496.88Seychelles 12.24 12.26 12.91 13.95 14.23 13.57 13.10 12.51Sierra Leone 4344.5 4385.5 4404.0 4362.7 4344.6 4337.1 4334.5 4324.2South Africa 6.793 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954Sudan 2.361 2.361 2.361 2.361 2.462 3.887 3.895 3.908Swaziland 6.793 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954Tanzania 1530.1 1609.3 1649.0 1589.1 1584.7 1579.4 1578.8 1589.8Togo 455.8 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9Tunisia 1.373 1.390 1.451 1.508 1.568 1.602 1.571 1.566Uganda 2405.2 2719.1 2609.1 2406.9 2489.9 2495.1 2626.3 2657.6Zambia 4.756 4.890 5.032 5.209 5.234 4.947 5.200 5.339Zimbabwe 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4

Chief Economist Complex, ECON

2011 2012

??





Table 13 : International reserves (Billions of US$) as at end of period

Country Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4Algeria 169.9 176.2 176.6 182.8 187.1 187.0 188.9 191.3Angola 20.48 24.06 25.57 26.48 27.39 30.73 30.43 30.98Benin 1.278 1.187 1.077 0.887 1.026 0.912 0.800 0.713Botswana 8.374 8.578 8.301 8.082 8.066 7.831 7.794 7.628Burkina Faso 1.077 1.026 0.923 0.957 0.726 0.815 0.908 1.025Burundi 0.345 0.342 0.303 0.294 0.289 0.273 0.283 0.307Cameroon 3.748 3.488 3.239 3.199 3.095 3.059 3.033 3.381Cape Verde 0.374 0.317 0.309 0.339 0.344 0.358 0.377 0.376Central African Republic 0.189 0.199 0.165 0.155 0.169 0.146 0.166 0.158Chad 0.825 0.882 0.900 0.951 0.866 0.872 0.952 1.156Comoros 0.166 0.151 0.146 0.155 0.150 0.157 0.172 ...Congo, Dem. Rep. 1.397 1.402 1.260 1.268 1.351 1.406 1.508 1.633Congo, Rep. 5.190 5.716 5.859 5.641 5.565 5.657 5.848 5.550Côte d'Ivoire 3.538 4.049 4.204 4.316 4.270 3.890 3.695 3.928Djibouti 0.257 0.249 0.224 0.244 0.253 0.258 0.253 0.249Egypt 27.68 23.51 20.96 14.92 11.82 12.15 11.66 11.63Equatorial Guinea 2.234 3.630 2.557 3.054 4.079 3.066 4.287 4.397Eritrea 0.116 0.117 0.116 0.115 ... ... ... ...Gabon 1.925 2.503 2.282 2.157 2.058 2.198 2.295 2.352Gambia, The 0.203 0.221 0.195 0.223 0.217 0.233 0.223 0.236Ghana 4.672 4.928 4.757 5.483 4.741 4.175 4.193 5.368Guinea 0.118 0.117 0.112 0.103 0.104 ... ... ...Guinea-Bissau 0.159 0.250 0.220 0.220 0.182 0.211 0.183 0.165Kenya 4.172 4.173 4.007 4.264 4.697 5.309 5.495 5.711Liberia 0.476 0.499 0.493 0.513 0.520 0.495 0.481 0.500Libya 107.4 107.2 104.1 104.8 110.0 110.5 115.438 ...Madagascar 1.209 1.254 1.236 1.279 1.295 1.176 1.150 1.191Malawi 0.199 0.227 0.270 0.197 0.148 0.093 0.186 0.223Mali 1.373 1.454 1.367 1.379 1.289 1.113 1.181 1.341Mauritania 0.311 0.411 0.420 0.485 0.509 0.569 0.821 0.949Mauritius 2.575 2.698 2.559 2.583 2.590 2.601 2.712 2.837Morocco 22.84 22.13 20.57 19.53 18.42 15.98 15.63 16.36Mozambique 2.126 2.352 2.371 2.469 2.315 2.473 2.867 2.770Namibia 1.536 1.821 1.432 1.787 1.604 1.734 1.675 1.746Niger 0.723 0.722 0.618 0.673 0.712 0.796 0.897 1.015Nigeria 35.88 34.57 34.36 35.21 37.79 37.95 43.224 46.405Rwanda 0.707 0.748 0.825 1.050 0.900 0.860 ... ...Sao Tome and Principe 0.045 0.048 0.055 0.051 0.053 0.036 0.041 0.052Senegal 2.206 2.552 2.454 1.946 2.090 1.856 1.994 2.082Seychelles 0.275 0.296 0.279 0.290 0.304 0.305 0.311 0.319Sierra Leone 0.425 0.416 0.420 0.439 0.453 0.442 0.445 0.478South Africa 43.51 43.98 43.21 42.60 43.98 42.92 43.85 44.00Sudan 2.929 2.415 0.667 0.193 0.194 0.190 0.193 0.193Swaziland 0.677 0.639 0.573 0.601 0.580 0.614 0.670 0.741Tanzania 3.643 3.498 3.471 3.726 3.534 3.788 4.045 4.053Togo 0.894 0.865 0.759 0.774 0.658 0.548 0.534 0.442Tunisia 9.199 7.712 7.998 7.454 7.084 6.359 6.494 8.357Uganda 2.434 2.273 2.479 2.617 2.741 2.859 3.098 3.169Zambia 2.106 2.588 2.556 2.324 2.319 2.440 3.319 3.042Zimbabwe 0.699 0.791 0.686 0.659 0.624 0.573 0.567 0.574

* provisional

Chief Economist Complex, ECON

2011 2012

??


Data sources and descriptions

Graph Description and technical observations Data Sources

Cover page Business confidence in USA, Eurozone and Japan / Africa's exports by destination (in %) International databases / WTO

1 Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Advanced Economies (Quarterly data seasonally adjusted (sa), growth rate compared to the previous quarter) OECD

2 Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Emerging Economies (Quarterly data, growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year) OECD

3 Harmonized Unemployment Rate in United States and Euro zone(monthly data, % of active population) OECD

4 Consumer Prices all Items for Advanced Economies (monthly data, percentage change on the same period of the previous year) OECD

5 Exchange rates in US$ for the Euro, the Yen and the YuanMonthly average OECD

6 Share price for US, Japan, Europe and Shangai Bloomberg

7 Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and

IMF

8 Manufacturing Production for selected African countries (monthly data sa, % change compared to the same month of the previous year) Regional Member Countries

9 North Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)


IMF

10 Crude Oil Production for African member countries of OPEC (monthly data; 1 000 barrel / day) AfDB Statistics Department and OPEC

11 Manufacturing Production for Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire (quarterly data sa, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) Regional Member Countries

12 - 13 -14 World volume imports of goods / Exports and imports values in current US dollar for selected African countries (quarterly data, current values, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) OECD / WTO

Focus Major economic statistics Bank of Ghana / Ghana Statistical Services

15 Commodity prices(monthly indexes, 100=2005) IMF, IFS Database

16 Oil prices (WTI and Brent)(US$ per barrel) IMF, IFS Database

17 Cocoa beans monthly prices(US$ per metric tonne) IMF, IFS Database

18 -20 Inflation on consumer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)


IMF

21 Inflation on manufacturing producer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)


IMF

22 South Africa : Money aggregate M3 and claims on private sector (monthly sa data, annual growth in %) SARB

23 Gross foreign reserves South Africa and Egypt (billions of US$) World Bank and national sources

24 & 26 Exchange rates (national currency per US$, monthly average rates) AfDB Statistics Department, Central Banks and IMF

25 & 27 Stock market indexes for selected African countries (end of period quotes, 100=2005) National Stock Exchanges

?


Table Data Sources Page

1 OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China and Federal State Statistics Service of Russia 4

2 OECD, EUROSTAT 4

3 Bloomberg OECD 4

4 AfDB Statistics Department and national statistical agencies 6

5 WTO 11

6 World Bank and ational sources 11

7 World Bank 13

8 National sources, World Bank and IMF 15

9 National Statistics sources and IMF 16

10 World Bank and National sources 18

11 National Statistics sources and international databases 18

12 World Bank 19

13 World Bank 20

Data sources and descriptions ?

African Development Bank Group - Quaterly statistical review - First quarter 2013

Business

Transcript of African Development Bank Group - Quaterly statistical review - First quarter 2013