AFRICA’S UNFOLDING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION...7 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM...
Transcript of AFRICA’S UNFOLDING AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION...7 UNMISTAKABLE SIGNS OF AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM...
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T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
WorldBankSeniorLeadershipTechnicalMeeting25January,2018
Paris,France
AFRICA’SUNFOLDINGAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATION
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2
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• 35%growthininflation-adjustedrealp.c.incomesinSSA,2000-2014
– Doubling inmanycountries
• Povertyratesfallingfortheregion
– %ofpeoplelivingonlessthan$1.90adaydeclinedfrom54%in
1990to41%in2013(Barrettetal.,2017)
3
RISINGREALINCOMES
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
4
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Annualinflation-adjustedagriculturalgrowthrates,2000-2016:
• Sub-SaharanAfrica: +4.62%
• LatinAmerica: +2.49%
• EastAsia: +3.07%
• SouthAsia: +2.96%
• World: +2.75%
5
IMPRESSIVEAGRICULTURALGROWTH
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AGRICULTURALVALUEADDEDANNUALGROWTHRATES2000-2016(constantlocalcurrencyunits)
6Source: World Development Indicators, 2017
%growthra
te
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7Source:IFADRuralDevelopmentReport,2016;WorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase,2016.
RELATIONSHIPBETWEENAGRICULTURALGROWTHANDPOVERTYREDUCTION
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
8
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Farmsize Numberoffarms(%oftotal)%growthin
numberoffarmsbetweeninitialand
latestyear
%oftotaloperatedlandonfarmsbetween0-100
ha
2008 2012 2008 2012
0– 5ha 5,454,961(92.8) 6,151,035(91.4) 12.8 62.4 56.3
5– 10ha 300,511(5.1) 406,947(6.0) 35.4 15.9 18.0
10– 20ha 77,668(1.3) 109,960(1.6) 41.6 7.9 9.7
20– 100ha 45,700(0.7) 64,588(0.9) 41.3 13.8 16.0
Total 5,878,840(100%) 6,732,530(100%) 14.5 100.0 100.0
- 6.1%
+6.1%
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINTANZANIA(2008-2012)LSMS/NATIONALPANELSURVEYS
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Source:GhanaGLSSSurveys,1992,2013
GhanaNumberoffarms %growthinnumber
offarms %oftotalcultivatedarea
1992 2013 1992 2013
0-2ha 1,458,540 1,582,034 8.5 25.1 14.2
2-5ha 578,890 998,651 72.5 35.6 31.3
5-10ha 116,800 320,411 174.3 17.2 22.8
10-20ha 38,690 117,722 204.3 11.0 16.1
20-100ha 18,980 37,421 97.2 11.1 12.2
>100ha -- 1,740 - -- 3.5
Total 2,211,900 3,057,978 38.3 100 100
51%oftotalfarm-land
CHANGESINFARMSTRUCTUREINGHANA(1992-2013)
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11Source:NPS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEDIUMSCALEFARMS’SHAREOFTOTALCROPVALUEINTANZANIA–14%TO30%IN6YEARS
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
12
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• 800% increase in the volumes and value of food marketed through
rural-to-urban value chains since 2000 (Tschirley et al, 2017)
• Underlying drivers:
– rapidly rising urban demand
– high global food prices
– agricultural sectoral reforms of 1990s
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RAPIDINVESTMENTINAGRICULTURALVALUECHAINSBYAFRICANENTREPRENEURS
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
14
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RAPIDDECLINEINSHAREOFLABORFORCEINFARMING(INFULL-TIMEEQUVALENTS)
Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
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Source:Yeboah andJayne(2018)
FARMINGISTHESINGLELARGESTEMPLOYERINMOSTCOUNTRIESDESPITEDECLININGJOBSHARE
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Source:YeboahandJayne(2018)
MAJORITYOFOFF-FARMAGRI-FOODSYSTEMJOBSINCOMMERCE,MUCHLESSINAGRO-PROCESSING
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
18
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Inherited 33.17%
Gifted 10.33%
Purchased 29.63%
Borrowed 11.09%
Rented 9.63%
Other(squatting/clearedland/allocated) 6.16%
Observations 4,291
Inherited/gifted38.34%
Purchased36.46%
Borrowed6.90%
Rented7.00%
Othermodeofacquisition11.30%
PERCENTOFTOTALFARMLANDAREA
Source:LSMS/NationalPanelSurvey2014/15
PERCENTOFPLOTS
19
MODEOFACQUISITIONOFALLFARMPLOTSINTANZANIA
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20
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal,2018,basedonTradeMapdatabase
NOMINALVALUEOFTRACTORIMPORTSTOSUB-SAHARANAFRICA(EXCL.SOUTHAFRICA),2001-2015
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21
Source:VanderWesthuisenetal.,2018,basedonNPS/LSMSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
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22Source:VanderWesthuisen,2018,basedonLSMS/NPSsurveys
%OFFARMHOUSEHOLDSRENTINGTRACTORSERVICESINTANZANIA,2009VS2015
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23Source:LSMS2009,2011,2013,2015
MEANLANDPRICESINTANZANIA:+53.9%INREALTERMSIN6YEARS
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Sources:LSMS-ISAandIHSforlandandwages;FEWSNETforureaandmaize
OUTPUTANDFACTORPRICEINDICES,RURALMALAWI,2004-2013
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7UNMISTAKABLESIGNSOFAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATIONINSSA
1. Majorgrowthinpercapitaincomes
2. Impressiveagriculturalgrowthrates
3. RiseofcommercializedAfricaninvestorfarmers
4. RapidinvestmentinagriculturalvaluechainsbyAfricanentrepreneurs
5. Diversificationofthelaborforceintooff-farmactivities
6. Greatervibrancyofagriculturalfactorsmarkets
7. ImprovedmarketaccessconditionsforAfricanfarmers
25
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Source:SitkoandJayne,2014
FARMERREPORTEDNUMBERSOFTRADERSBUYINGMAIZEINTHEIRVILLAGE,2014
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27
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
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28
Distancefromfarmto:
Percentileoffarmhouseholddistribution
Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 95th
-------------- kmdistance--------------
Nearestdistricttown(km)
37.1 6.0 13.0 30.0 58.0 94.0
Pointofmaizesaletotrader(km)
6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 58.0
Source:ChapotoandJayne,2014,basedon2014CropForecastSurvey,n=13,859farmhouseholds
MARKETACCESSCONDITIONS,ZAMBIA,2014
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29Source:ChamberlinandJayne,2012
CHANGEINFARMHOUSEHOLDS’DISTANCETOSERVICESINRURALKENYA,1997-2010
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1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
30
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
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31
AFRICA’SAGRICULTURALGROWTHSTILLRELIESMAINLYONCROPLANDEXPANSION,NOTENOUGHONPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH
Source:EconomicResearchService,https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/
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1. Futureaggrowthneededfromhighervalueperhectareandperlaborer,notjustareaexpansion
2. Land/soildegradation– willmakecontinuedagriculturaltransformationmoredifficultunless
addressed
• Proximatecauses:lowadoptionof“climatesmart”and“sustainable”landmanagement
practices
• Underlyingculprits– ineffectivenationalagR&Dandextensionsystems
3. The“employmentchallenge”:eachyear,roughly17millionyoungAfricansenterworkingage
32
MAJORCHALLENGESTOBETACKLED
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62%<25yearsold
LOOMINGEMPLOYMENTCHALLENGEINSSA
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YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
Pulledoutofagriculture• Injobswithhighbarrierstoentry• Post-secondaryeducation• Investedinskills
80%
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YOUTHLIVELIHOODSOPTIONS
62%<25years
40%Non-farm
60%Farming
10%Successfulnon-farm
30%Strugglingnon-farm
10%Successfulfarming
50%Strugglingfarm
70%Successfulnon-farm
30%Successfulfarming
Policies• Inclusiveeconomic
growth• Infrastructure• R&D• Education
– Post-secondary
Policies• R&D/ext.• Landaccess• Finance• Infrastructureand
investmentsalongvaluechain– Irrigation– Roads– Electricity
STRUCTURALTRANSFORMATIONPATHWAY
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1. Africa’slaborforcediversifyingawayfromsubsistencefarming
2. Shareoflaborforceinnon-farmemploymentupsharplysince2000
3. Governancehasimproved,albeitunevenly.Daysofhyperinflation,blackmarketexchangerates
andmacroturmoillargelyover.
4. GreaterproportionofyoungAfricansacquiringsecondaryanduniversityeducations
5. PercapitaGDPincreasedbetween2000and2014by35%inrealterms.SSAhasbeenworld’s
second-fastestgrowingeconomy,exceededonlybyAsia
6. +4.6%inflation-adjustedp.a.aggrowthbetween2000-2016(WB,2017)vs.worldavg.of2.75%
7. Womenhavebecomeconsiderablymoreactiveinlabormarketsandbetterabletoholdstocksof
wealthontheirown
8. Povertyratesdeclinedsignificantlysince2000
9. Nutritionalindicatorsalsoshowgradualbutclearimprovement
36
SUMMARY:UNMISTAKABLEPROGRESSINSSA
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T.S.JayneandHolgerKray
WorldBankSeniorLeadershipTechnicalMeeting25January,2018
Paris,France
AFRICA’SUNFOLDINGAGRI-FOODSYSTEMTRANSFORMATION
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38
Source:UN2013
SUBSAHARANAFRICA:ONLYREGIONOFTHEWORLDWHERERURALPOPULATIONCONTINUESTORISEPAST2050
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Source:YeboahandJayne(2018)
AGRICULTURALEMPLOYMENTSHAREINTOTALNUMBEROFJOBSANDINFULL-TIMEEQUIVALENTS(FTE)