Africa’s Contemporary Security Challenges · 2019-08-04 · Africa’s Contemporary Security...
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Impact through Insight Africa’s Contemporary Security Challenges Washington, 12 th Sept 2018 The Case of South Sudan Luka Kuol Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)
Transcript of Africa’s Contemporary Security Challenges · 2019-08-04 · Africa’s Contemporary Security...
Impact through Insight
Africa’s Contemporary Security Challenges
Washington, 12th Sept 2018
The Case of South Sudan
Luka KuolAfrica Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)
Outline
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1. Why Civil War in South Sudan?
2. Navigating the Competing Regional Interests
3. The UN and International Community
4. Trajectories Facing South Sudan
Why Civil War in South Sudan?
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Source: McCandless, E., 2018. “Forging Resilient Social Contracts for Peace”
Mediation and Regional Dynamics
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Mediation and Regional Dynamics
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Crisis of Mediation and Armed Groups
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Source: CEPO
Peter GadatArmed
Youth
Red Devils (NRF/M) Divided
into
(SPLM-IO, NAS & SPLM -IO-
Yei peace accord team)
Maban
armed youth
Shullik armed Group
(Agwlelekforces –party SPLM-IO &
NDM)
Arrow Boys
(Partly SPLM-
IO)
NyraguwahDivided into (SPLM-IO & Independent
Movement, NAS )
Wau BoysDivided partly in SPLM-IO
White Army
Monymigii divided into (
SPLM-IO & NAS)
Toposa
armed
youth
(Party
NAS and NDM)
M undari
Armed
youth
Murle
Armed
youth (
partlyNAS)
Active armed
cattle
raiding
Zone
Borarmed Youth
P opular Front
for
D em ocratic
R eform and
P an-A frican N ational
G uard
A rm ed A nyuak
com m unity of
P ochalla
petitions for
separate state
South Sudan
P atriotic
A rm y (SSPA )
Bandama in Tore
Mathiang Anyoor
Rebel under SPLA division two Chan
Garang Lual(South Sudan
U nited Front )
Pan African group
by late commander, AnyarAnyar
South Sudan United Liberation Movement/Army
Brig. Gen. Zachariah
Monyjiek BaguotKiir
Eastern Front
ArmyBy: Abdallah Albert
Mediation and Proliferation of Armed Groups
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SPLM-IO (RM)
Outbreak of conflict
REMNASA
ARCISS signed
FDP
TFNF
SSNLM
SSPPF
SSAF
Machar returns to Juba
IMLR
Machar flees Juba
SPLM-IO (TDG)
NDM
SSLM
SSNMC
UDRA
NAS
SSPM
HLRF announced
SSUM
SSDF
NPAF
HLRF commences
SSUF
Oct-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Feb-18
Source: Deng, D. 2018 (forthcoming). “Who is Who in South Sudan”
The Efforts of UN Mission and International Actors
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Trajectories for South Sudan?
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• The Status Quo
• The Hobbesian State
• Pathways to Stability
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