An Introduction from Africa ProgramDirector Howard Wolpe:

The following remarks were delivered by CallistoMadavo, former Vice President for Africa at the WorldBank, at a Congressional Staff Forum on AfricaRetreat, convened by the Woodrow Wilson InternationalCenter March 8-10, 2005. A noted Zimbabweaneconomist, Callisto Madavo served as World Bank VicePresident 1996-2005. Over the course of a distin-guished 36-year career at the Bank, which includedpostings in the Middle East, East Asia and Africa,Madavo witnessed both the successes and failures ofpoverty reduction strategies in multiple settings. Now,with the world’s attention being increasingly drawn tothe challenge of poverty reduction in Africa, Madavooffers an important perspective on the context and histo-ry of the economic challenges facing the continent.

Since the mid-1990s, and particularly in the lastseveral years, there has been important progress in forg-ing a new international consensus on development poli-cy. Structured around the United Nations MillenniumDevelopment Goals, it depends on democratization andeconomic reform within Africa, on increased trade anddevelopment assistance, and on a more constructive part-

nership between Africa and the international communi-ty. Nonetheless, a long and difficult path lies ahead. Inhis remarks, Madavo reviews the scope and backgroundof African poverty and identifies some broad imperativesto guide 21st century development policy.

The Dimensions of UnderdevelopmentDevelopment in Sub-Saharan Africa is laggingbadly behind the other regions of the develop-ing world. In East Asia, per capita GDP hasgrown by nearly 800% since 1960, and in lowincome countries as a whole per capita GDPhas doubled. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, hasseen virtually no per capita GDP growth overthis period.

The result of this stagnation in economicexpansion is increasing poverty on the conti-nent. While Africa is home to only 10% of theworld population, roughly 30% of the world’spoor are Africans. Since the mid-1980s thenumber of poor in Africa has doubled to some300 million and is expected to climb as high as

AFRICAoccasional paper series

Africa: The Development Challenges of the 21st CenturyCallisto MadavoFormer Vice President for Africa,The World Bank

PROGRAM

No. 4September 2005

400 million by 2015. Thus, Africa is the onlyregion of the world where poverty is increas-ing in stark contrast to the dramatic gains in thefight against poverty that are seen elsewhere,most notably in Asia.

There is also increasing evidence not onlythat more Africans are falling into poverty, butthat income inequality has opened a wide gapbetween ordinary Africans and African elites. Inmany countries, elites control both the dwin-dling economic opportunities and the machin-ery of the state, ensuring that their economicand political privileges are protected. In suchenvironments, efforts to open opportunities forthe majority of the population have few power-ful supporters.

Africa is also lagging behind in terms of othernon-income indicators of development. Forexample, at a time when globalization is inte-grating the world economy and contributing togrowth in many least developed countries,Africans are being marginalized.The continent’sshare of world trade has declined from 3.5% inthe 1970’s to 1.5% today.This decline is equiva-lent to an annual loss of approximately $70 bil-

lion. When compared with the $25 billion thatcomes to Africa each year in the form of over-seas development assistance, the significance ofAfrica’s declining participation in internationaltrade becomes clear. In addition, less engage-ment with the global economy means thatAfrica is also missing out on the technical trans-formation critical to laying the investment foun-dations for the future.

Social indicators tell the same story of Africa’sgradual decay from the early 1970s to the begin-ning of the 1990s. Over this period, Africa wasconsistently lagging behind in such areas asaccess to piped water and sanitation, primaryeducation completion rates, and gender equality.This pattern was then compounded by theHIV/AIDS pandemic and by a series of destruc-tive conflicts.Today over 25 million Africans livewith HIV/AIDS and another 12 million chil-dren have been orphaned by the disease.An esti-mated 20 million people have been displaced byconflicts, with large numbers dying in suchplaces as the Great Lakes region, Sierra Leone,Sudan, and Somalia.

We often forget that behind these numbersare real people, facing daily struggles, beginningwith the struggle simply to obtain enough foodto survive. Large numbers of children are under-nourished or stunted, and many children diebefore their 5th birthday. Millions more do notattend schools and many girls face limitedopportunities simply because of their gender. Inmany ways the youth, who are the future ofAfrica, are already being mortgaged.

Currently, the international community’sattention has been seized by the United NationsMillennium Development Goals (MDGs), laidout in 2000 as development targets to be metwithin the first fifteen years of the 21st century.Unfortunately, as the following graph illustrates,many countries in Africa will not come evenclose to meeting most of these goals.

Figure 1. GDP per capita: Africa, East Asia, and LICs(index 1960=100)

Source: World Bank Capacity Building Task Force 2005

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AFRICA PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

785

208124

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

GDP

per c

apita

inde

x, 1

960=

100 East Asia & Pacific

Low income countries overallSub-Saharan Africa

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AFRICA: THE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

In many ways, the picture that emerges fromthe information presented above seems to addup to a tragedy writ large and can easily lead toAfro-pessimism. But Africa is a continent, not acountry, and within these often disturbing statis-tics, there are other, more encouraging trends,particularly since the 1990s.There are countriesthat are growing economically, that are well gov-erned, that are fighting corruption, and whoseleadership is serious about development andpoverty reduction. These countries have a goodchance to meet some, if not all, of the keyMDGs. There are islands of real progress inimproved economic policies, export growth, andgovernance and democratization. Africa is adiverse continent whose countries span a widecontinuum — from fragile states such as Somaliaand the Central African Republic, to successfulpost-conflict countries such as Rwanda andMozambique, and stable and growing countriessuch as Botswana and Mauritius.We must avoidpainting the whole continent with a broadbrush; there is a need to promote more differen-tiated assessments and solutions appropriate tospecific country situations. No one size fits all.

Lessons from historyMany of you, I am sure, are wondering:what wentwrong in Africa? What are the lessons that we canderive from its history, and how can those lessonsbe applied to create a more hopeful future?

To begin with the historical perspective, let usgo back to the first decade of independence. Inthe 1960s,African economic growth was robust,and infrastructure, education and health wereimproving across much of the continent.Expectations during these years were high.However, this period of optimism ended when aseries of external shocks hit the continent in the1970s, bringing a calamitous deterioration inthe terms of trade for many commodity-dependent economies. As oil prices shot up,many countries borrowed massively to offset the

Figure 2. The gap between the MDGs and their projected levels in Africa given current trends

Data sources: Global Monitoring Report 2005, The World Bank and The IMF.

% of peoplewithout access

to improvedsanitation

22

0

2633

6

3833 36

61

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Povertyheadcount

% of childrenwithoutprimary

education

% of peoplewithout accessto pipe water

child mortality

MDG

gap

, %

MDG

Projection

At a time when globalization is integrating the worldeconomy and contributing to growth in many leastdeveloped countries, Africans are being marginalized.The continent’s share of world trade has declined from3.5% in the 1970s to 1.5% today.

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AFRICA PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

declining revenues. Africa was clearly livingbeyond its means and sowing the seeds of today’sdebt problem.

At the same time, influenced by the statisteconomic development models that were invogue around the world during that period,African governments pushed through a wave ofnationalizations and other government-cen-tered economic policies. The result was a mar-ginalization of the private sector and a stultifi-cation of market-driven economic activity atmany levels.

In addition, the state was taking on anexpanded role just at the time it was fallingunder considerable pressure. Coups, conflicts,and the estrangement of the nation-state from itscitizenry led to a deterioration in governanceand a rise in official corruption. By the 1980s,most African economies were in “freefall,” suf-fering from stagnation, contraction and decline.Many have characterized the period as the con-tinent’s “lost decade.”

The crises of the 1980s sparked a great debateamong those concerned with Africa:

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), developed over the course of the 1990s were unanimously ratified by all UnitedNations member countries in September, 2000 as part of the Millennium Declaration. They provide a set of internationally acceptedand quantifiable standards to measure progress in world development. By the year 2015, they aim to:

Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger by halving the population living on less than $1 dollar a day and suffering from hunger.

Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education by ensuring a full course of primary schooling to all children

Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women by eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary educationby 2005, and at all levels by 2015

Goal 4 Reduce child mortality by two-thirds for children under five

Goal 5 Improve maternal health by reducing the maternal mortality ratio by 75%

Goal 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases by halting the progression of HIV/AIDS and malaria and beginning toreverse their prevalence

Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability by integrating the principles of sustainable development into country policies,reversing the loss of environmental resources, halving the proportion of people without safe drinking water andbasic sanitation, and achieving a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020

Goal 8 Develop a global partnership for development by developing a more open and just international trade environment,addressing the special needs of the least developed countries, landlocked countries and small island countries;ensuring sustainable debt levels; developing and implementing strategies to increase youth employment; increaseaccess to pharmaceuticals and new technologies.

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AFRICA: THE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

• There were those who felt Africa’s problemswere externally driven, caused by deteriorat-ing terms of trade and a generally hostile envi-ronment in the global economy.The solution,they argued, lay in greater self-reliance. Thistranslated into policies that effectively shutAfrica off from the global economy.

• Others took an opposite view, arguing thatwhile external factors contributed to thecontinent’s hardships, basic African problemswere internal. They argued that Africa wasliving beyond its means, and was encumberedchiefly by poor policies, an over-extendedstate, poor internal leadership, and little or noownership of local development programs.

The period that followed saw an exaggeratedrole played by outsiders who pushed controver-sial structural adjustment programs that cutspending to achieve macroeconomic stability,and opened up national economies to marketforces were adopted. In the push to pare backthe reach of the state, we saw government’slegitimate developmental role in promotingeconomic growth reduced as well.

The results from structural adjustment weremixed at best. By the beginning of the 1990s, fewcountries had reversed the downward spiral thathad begun in the 1970s. At the same time, welearned many useful lessons that enabled Africaand its partners to stem the decline and begin theslow process of recovery witnessed in the late1990’s.Among those lessons:

• There is a need to put growth and povertyreduction at the center of African develop-ment efforts. Previously, too much spendinghad been directed at programs and projectsthat accomplished neither.

• African countries had to lead and have own-ership over their development strategies.

These strategies could not be imposed fromthe outside as conditionalities for aid.

• Capable, well-led democratic states, whichencourage engagement by the private sector,civil society and other stakeholders to safe-guard accountability are essential. Equallyimportant is a norm of transparency, particu-larly in the use of public resources, and thefight against corruption.

• The international community should notimpose policies on African countries. It must,however, continue to play an important sup-porting role because Africa’s resources are toolimited for the continent to pull itself up by itsown bootstraps. A real partnership betweenAfrica and the international community isneeded if it is to make progress towards meet-ing the MDGs by the 2015 deadline.

Callisto Modavo speaks to congressional staff aspart of the Congressional Staff Forum on Africa,organized by the Africa Program at the WilsonCenter. With the support of the Ford Foundationand the Carnegie Corporation, the Program aimsto increase the critical knowledge and expertiseon Africa among Congressional staff who areinvolved in foreign policymaking, and to deepenthe international policy dialogue on how to moreeffectively address the myriad of problemsconfronting the African continent.

But Africa is acontinent, not acountry, andwithin theseoften disturbingstatistics, thereare other, moreencouragingtrends, particular-ly since the1990s. There arecountries that aregrowing econom-ically, that arewell-governed,that are fightingcorruption, andwhose leadershipis serious aboutdevelopment andpoverty reduc-tion.

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A New ParadigmLet me now turn to the 1990s, and to the emer-gence of what is really a new paradigm fordevelopment in Africa. Reflecting on these var-ious lessons — some quite painful — the devel-opment community entered the 1990s with anemerging new consensus on African develop-ment among African leaders, African thinkersand the international community.

Within Africa,determined African leaders tookthe lead in charting the continent’s revival. Theyestablished the African Union and elaborated aneconomic vision under the New Partnership forAfrican Development (NEPAD), emphasizingsound economic policies, good governance andaccountability. Here the leadership of PresidentsObasanjo of Nigeria and Thabo Mbeki of SouthAfrica has been indispensable.

Many countries made tangible progresstowards democratization, promoting broad-basedcitizen participation in both the economic andpolitical life of their countries. Over the pastdecade many African countries have held multi-party elections for the first time.While electionshave not always been flawless, the direction isclear: Africa is seeing a real movement towardsbetter governance, which is a prerequisite forprogress. Macroeconomic policies are muchimproved across the continent and efforts areunderway to strengthen governance through theNEPAD’s Peer Review Mechanism that aims topromote growth and governance through thesharing of best practices and experiencesbetween African nations.

Africa, like other developing regions, hasembraced the MDGs as the basis for formulatingits development and poverty reduction strategies.While meeting the MDGs remains a dauntingchallenge for most African counties, it is hopedthat many will make demonstrable progress.

On the side of the international community,there is a gradual but growing acceptance that

development programs must be home-grownand can not be imposed from outside. Moreresources — in the form of increased develop-ment assistance, greater debt relief, and access tomarkets in developed countries — are needed ifAfrica is to have a chance to meet the MDGs.Thisreality was acknowledged at the MonterreySummit in 2002 and is being reinforced this yearthrough the UN Millennium Project report onthe MDGs, the report of the Blair Commissionon Africa and the Africa-focused 2005 G8 meet-ing in Gleneagles, Scotland.

The additional resources that have been prom-ised must be directed towards reducing povertyand achieving the MDGs. These resources mustbe managed transparently.The allocation of aidwill be guided by measures of performance,effectiveness, and results, the approach embod-ied in the Millennium Challenge Account(MCA) set up in the United States. Meanwhile,international donors will need to do a betterjob of providing technical and financial supportin a coordinated and predictable manner. It iscritical to focus not only on the quantity butalso on the quality of aid and on the results andeffectiveness of assistance programs.

Within the international community, theUnited States has a special leadership role to playin raising aid levels, supporting countries in theirfight against HIV/AIDS and in making sure thatprograms such as the MCA are implementedquickly with attention to results.

Translating Africa’s renewed efforts and inter-national support for more development aid, debtrelief, and improved trade access into tangibleand visible results for the average African is thekey challenge. Here, capacity in African coun-tries is emerging as a major constraint — thecapacity of individuals, organizations and institu-tions to set development goals and achieve them.Africa and its international partners will need tojoin hands in a “big push” to build and utilize

While electionshave not always

been flawless, thedirection is clear:Africa is seeing a

real movementtowards better

governance,which is a pre-

requisite forprogress.

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AFRICA: THE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

untapped capacity so that this opportunity is notlost.Were things to fall apart for lack of deliveryon the ground, it would be difficult to pick upthe pieces and start again.

Hope and RealismLooking ahead, let me offer a few concludingthoughts.

If Africa is to make progress it will require astrong, consistent leadership and effective insti-tutions and programs. It will need to broadenand deepen the development platform estab-lished in the late 1990s, paying special attentionto these factors:

• Peace and stability

• Good governance, democratization, civic par-ticipation, empowerment, transparency — allof which are crucial to fighting corruption

• Growth, growth and growth! Growth andjobs are essential for poverty reduction. Onlya vibrant private sector, including farmers,informal sector entrepreneurs, medium-scale

enterprises and larger domestic and foreignfirms can make this possible.

• Strengthening service delivery, particularlywith regard to clean water and high-qualityhealthcare and education. A special effort tostem the HIV/AIDS pandemic is critical.

• Special attention to gender and youth.Women are one of Africa’s strongest assetsand have thus far gone unrecognized andunderutilized, while Africa’s youth representthe continent’s much-neglected future.

The international community will need toaccompany Africa on what will be a long anddifficult journey. The alternative is a marginal-ized Africa and a potential source of instability,disease and general decline in an otherwiseprosperous world. Would that be in anybody’sself-interest? I think not.

Africa’s development is one of key challengesof this century. It will not be easy or quick, but itcan be done. I remain hopeful but realistic aboutthe continent’s future.

Figure 3.

Data sources: Africa Region Country Poverty Studies.

Senegal

Mozambique

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Uganda

Ghana

Cape Verde

Malawi

Kenya

Zimbabwe

6667

54

65

555354

4848

3740

57

52

4640

38

30354045505560657075

1989

1991

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Pove

rty h

ead

coun

t %

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Pove

rty h

ead

coun

t, %

40

2635

52

Moreresources—in the form ofincreased devel-opment assis-tance, greaterdebt relief, andaccess to marketsin developedcountries — areneeded if Africais to have achance to meetthe MillenniumDevelopmentGoals.

The Africa ProgramThe Africa Program was established at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in1999 with the generous support of the Ford Foundation. Under the leadership of formerCongressman and Presidential Special Envoy Howard Wolpe, the Africa Program serves as oneof Washington, D.C.’s leading forums for informed debate about the multiple challenges andopportunities that face Africa, and about American interests in—and policy toward — the conti-nent. The program serves as a bridge for academics, diplomatic practitioners, policymakers, andmembers of the private sector, from Africa and the United States, who share a common interestin developing informed and effective policy decisions on Africa.

With the support of the World Bank’s Post-Conflict Fund, the Center’s Africa Program haslaunched a major capacity-building initiative in Burundi, designed to increase the ability of thecountry’s ethnically polarized leadership to work together in consolidating its post-war transitionand advancing Burundi’s post-war economic reconstruction. The "Congressional Staff Forum onAfrica" series, launched with the financial backing of the Ford Foundation, seeks to respond toincreased policymaker interest in the African continent. The Africa Program also oversees theAfricanist Doctoral Candidate Summer Fellowship Program, which brings advanced doctoral stu-dents who have not yet completed their dissertations to the Center for a three-month residency.Finally, within the Center, the Africa Program supports residential fellows whose researchfocuses on this important region and works closely with the Center's other projects and pro-grams on cross-regional issues, such as governance, the development of state capacity, crimeand corruption, and pressing health and social problems such as the AIDS pandemic.

For more information contact Africa Program associate, Michael Jobbins at (202) 691-4158,africa@wilsoncenter.org.

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