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1 World Economy

1.1. Economic growth & unemployment

1.2. Inflation and financial developments

1.3. Summary of world statistics

2 Africa in the World Economy

2.1. Economic growth Focus: Tunisian economy

2.2. Merchandise trade2.3. Commodity trends2.4. Inflation & money supply2.5. Financial indicators

3 Data sources and descriptions

AfDBAfrica & Global Economic Trends

Quarterly Statistical Review

Statistics Department Second Quarter 2013 - Volume 14 - July 26, 2013

Contents

At a glance

This brief was prepared by Louis Kouakou (Statistician, ESTA1) and Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Assistant, ESTA1) under the supervision of

Beejaye Kokil, (Manager, Economic & Social Statistics Division, ESTA.1).

For access to development data on African countries, please visit the AfDB Data Portal Web Site at: http://intranet.afdb.org/statistics or the

Statistics Department Web Site: www.afdb.org/statistics

Mthuli NcubeChief Economist and Vice-President [email protected]

+216 71 10 20 62

Charles Leyeka LufumpaDirector, Statistics Department [email protected]+216 71 10 21 75

Steve Kayizzi-MugerwaDirector, Research Department [email protected]+216 71 10 20 64

Victor MurindeDirector, African Development Institute [email protected]+216 71 10 20 76

The upward growth trajectory of key

emerging economies began to lose

momentum in the second quarter of

2013. This was due to a variety of factors:

infrastructure bottlenecks and other capacity

constraints in some economies, slower

external demand growth, lower commodity

prices, financial stability concerns and, in

some cases, weak policy support. GDP

growth in China slowed to 7.5% in the

second quarter of 2013, from 7.7% in the first

quarter 2013 and 7.9% in the final quarter of

2012. China’s exports dropped by 3.1% in the

second quarter, with a decrease in industrial

production reacting to the central’s bank’s

shift to a tighter monetary policy. The pace of

economic growth also eased in India and in

Latin America, despite a modest

improvement in Brazil. The slowdown in

emerging economies is likely to soften

demand for African commodity exports,

although short-term prospects remain

favorable. The economies of most major

OECD countries have grown at a subdued

rate, although the IMF in June revised

downward its growth forecast for the US for

2013 and 2014. By contrast, growth in Japan

proved stronger than expected in the second

quarter of 2013, boosted by higher

consumption and net exports.

In response to robust domestic demand,

Africa was one of the few regions to record

an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI)

inflows in 2012, up by 5% to $50 billion. This

was partly due to increased investment from

transnational corporations based in emerging

Asia, with Malaysia, China and India the

largest investors. FDI inflows in 2012 were

boosted by investments in the extractive

sector in countries such as the Democratic

Republic of Congo, Mauritania, Mozambique,

and Uganda. At the same time, there has

been an increase in FDI for consumer-

oriented manufacturing and services. FDI

outflows from Africa almost tripled in 2012, to

$14 billion.

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

2 Statistics Department Second Quarter 2013 - Volume 14 - July 26, 2013

World Economy Economic Growth 1.1 - World economy : economic growth & unemployment

Global growth moderating In the July update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised down

its global GDP growth estimate for 2013 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%,

the same level as in 2012. This revision was motivated by appreciably

weaker domestic demand in advanced economies and a slowdown in the

growth of key emerging economies. The more gloomy prediction took

account of a longer and deeper recession in the eurozone than first

foreseen. The global economy continues to show a three-speed mode:

advanced economies including the U.S. and Japan recovering slowly;

slowing momentum in emerging economies’ growth; with the recession in

the eurozone exerting downside risks globally.

For advanced economies, growth is projected to accelerate slowly as acute

risks diminish. The forecast is for GDP to expand by a modest 1.2% this

year, firming to 2.1% in 2014. The OECD Composite Leading Indicators

(CLIs), released in July, confirm the IMF’s findings and indicate a firming

growth in most major OECD economies.

In the U.S., private sector demand is being held back by fiscal tightening.

GDP rose by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2013, up from a very weak 0.1% at

the end of 2012. Favorable figures from the U.S. housing and labor markets

have helped offset the impact of sharp payroll tax increases on consumer

incomes. The IMF has moderated its growth forecast for the US economy

-- down to 1.9% this year and 2.7% in 2013, on the basis that higher tax

rates and spending cuts from the federal budget sequester might prove a

“stronger headwind to consumer demand over the next few quarters.”

By contrast, the IMF has raised its economic growth estimate for Japan to

2.0% this year, largely reflecting the impact of the central bank’s monetary

easing policy. Concerns over the sustainability of the present level of growth

have led to a lowering of the IMF’s growth estimate for Japan in 2014 to

1.2%. In July, promising second quarter 2013 figures were published for

the U.K. economy, showing a growth rate of 0.6%, up from 0.3% in the first

quarter.

Slowing momentum in key emerging economiesThe growth trajectory of key emerging economies is showing signs of mo-

derating, with industrial output easing and deteriorating business sentiment.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in BRICS countries and Turkey has

declined for two or more consecutive months. In particular, the May PMI

was weaker than expected in China, retreating 1.2 points to 49.2, while bu-

siness sentiment in India continued to deteriorate, dropping an additional

0.9 points in May.

There is a wide disparity between the current economic performance

of the U.S. and the eurozone, where weakness has reached the core

economies.

Statistics Department Second Quarter 2013 - Volume 14 - July 26, 2013 3

World Economy Inflation and financial developments

Activity in the eurozone is being curtailed by weak consumer confidence

and continued banking sector and fiscal restructuring. High

unemployment levels and tight credit have slowed the recovery of

peripheral economies. In the first quarter of 2013, the eurozone GDP

growth contracted by 0.3% after a 0.6% fall in the previous quarter. With

regard to PMI diffusion indexes published in May, manufacturing output

in the eurozone improved at a moderate pace for all countries surveyed.

Unemployment remains high, particularly in the eurozone

Several advanced economies continue to face high unemployment and

economic slack. In the U.S. the unemployment rate remained steady at

7.6% in June 2013. The OECD unemployment rate stood at 8.0% in May

2013, unchanged for the third consecutive month.

In eurozone, the unemployment rate hit a record high of 12.2% overall in

May. This aggregate figure though masks some of the worst performers:

The jobless rate in Greece increased to 26.9% in April 2013 from 26.8% in

March of 2013. Marginally better data are coming out of Spain, where the

unemployment level fell in the second quarter of 2013 for the first time in

two years, down to 26.3%. This is still an improvement from the first quarter

of 2013 when the rate stood at 27.2%. Looking ahead, unemployment in

OECD countries is forecast to remain high throughout 2014, with young

people and the low-skilled hit the hardest. The OECD Employment Outlook

2013 indicates that the jobless rate will fall only slightly over the next 18

months, from 8.0% in May 2013 to 7.8% at the end of 2014.

Global inflation continues to ease in both advanced and developing

countries. According to the OECD, wages in developed economies grew at

a slower pace than productivity during the first quarter of 2013, which points

to low inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, consumer prices in developed

countries rose at the slowest pace in three and a half years in April 2013.

The OECD reports that labor costs fell sharply in the U.S. in the first quarter

2013, as they did in Japan. In the U.S. the consumer price index (CPI) was

up by 0.5% in June, after a 0.1% uptick in May and a 0.4% contraction in

April while core inflation moderated, from 1.7% to 1.6%. In the eurozone,

inflation risks are still balanced over the medium term, with increases in key

interest rates potentially on the horizon.

In emerging economies, inflation eased further, in line with declining

commodity prices and moderating economic activity. In China, inflationary

pressures have relaxed notably since 2011, partly as a result of curbs on

spending but also due to the government’s monetary policies introduced to

tackle a combination of excess credit and over-investment that followed the

RMB4tn ($652bn) stimulus package of 2008.

1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments

Exchange rates and stock markets

Divergences in monetary policies introduced by central banks have created

volatilities in money markets since the start of the year and this is set to

continue. A strong surge by the U.S. dollar was observed in May 2013, but

quickly ran out of steam. The greenback’s depreciation against European

currencies and the yen is particularly striking. However, the currencies of

many emerging countries have also sustained losses. These trends reflect

tempered expectations about monetary policies in the developed countries,

as well as concerns over the sustainability of growth in emerging

economies. Japan’s recent monetary policies to counter a long decade of

deflation and to support economic growth have caused the yen to

depreciate by around 23% in nominal terms over the last nine months.

Major stock markets proved relatively resilient in the first five months of

2013. The rise was led by Japanese equities, although these have slumped

since late May. In the U.S., stocks have been robust with the S&P 500 index

marking multiple record highs. On the whole, mature stock markets have

significantly outperformed those of emerging economies, but have declined

since late May amid concerns over the withdrawal of central bank stimulus

measures. Advanced countries’ stocks have been held back recently by

slowing economic growth, weak corporate earnings, and falling commodity

prices. On bond markets, borrowing costs for advanced countries’

sovereign debt have risen since January, with a particularly sharp increase

in June. Borrowing costs for France and Spain rose in July 2013 after the

eruption of political turmoil in neighboring Portugal raised fears that the

eurozone crisis might reignite.


World Economy Inflation and financial developments

1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments


World Economy Financial Indicators

Table 1: Real GDP Growth (seasonally adjusted data)

1.3 - WORLD ECONOMY: Summary of world statistics

� World Economy

Country 2011 2012 2013 f 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1

ii % change on previous year ii % change on previous quarter

United States 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.4

Japan -0.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.3 1.0

Eurozone 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3

France 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Germany 3.0 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.7 0.1

Italy 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6

ii % change on previous year ii % change on same quarter of previous year

China 9.4 7.8 8.0 9.1 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7

India 7.7 3.8 5.7 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 2.8

Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8

4.3 3.4 3.4 5.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 2.0 1.8

Country

United States 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4

Japan -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5

China 5.4 2.6 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4

India 8.9 9.3 8.4 7.2 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.7 10.5

France 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8

Germany 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5

Italy 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.2

Country

USA (S&P 500) 1257.6 1426.19 1257.6 1408.5 1362.2 1440.7 1426.2 1569.2 1606.3

Japan (Nikkei 225) 8455.4 10395.2 8455.3 10083.6 9006.8 8870.2 10395.2 12397.9 13677.3

U.K (FTSE 100) 5572.3 5897.8 5572.3 5768.4 5571.2 5742.1 5897.8 6411.7 6215.5

Europe (Eurotop) 2100.86 2324.9 2100.9 2209.3 2114.3 2242.0 2324.9 2431.4 2351.6

Hong Kong (HSI) 18434.4 22656.9 18434.4 20555.6 19441.5 20840.4 22656.9 22299.6 20803.3

Brazil (BVSP) 56754 60952 56754 64511 54355 59176 60952 56352 47457

Euro 0.719 0.778 0.742 0.763 0.780 0.799 0.771 0.758 0.766

Yen 79.8 79.8 77.3 79.3 80.1 78.6 81.3 92.3 98.8

Yuan 6.46 6.31 6.34 6.31 6.31 6.33 6.30 6.28 6.27

United States 2.786 1.803 2.050 2.040 1.820 1.640 1.710 1.950 2.000

Japan 1.102 0.836 1.020 0.960 0.850 0.780 0.750 0.650 ..

Eurozone 4.312 3.053 4.200 3.650 3.440 2.900 2.220 2.760 2.870

Chief Economist Complex, ECON 4

Russia

Table 2: Inflation (consumer prices, %)

� World Economy

Country

United States 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.4

Japan -0.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.3 1.0

Eurozone 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3

France 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Italy 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6

China 9.4 7.8 8.0 9.1 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7

India 7.7 3.8 5.7 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 2.8

Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8

4.3 3.4 3.4 5.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 2.0 1.8

Country 2011 2012 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1 2013 Q.2


United States 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4

Japan -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5

China 5.4 2.6 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4

India 8.9 9.3 8.4 7.2 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.7 10.5

Eurozone (HCP) 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.4

France 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8

Germany 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5

Italy 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.2

Country

USA (S&P 500) 1257.6 1426.19 1257.6 1408.5 1362.2 1440.7 1426.2 1569.2 1606.3

Japan (Nikkei 225) 8455.4 10395.2 8455.3 10083.6 9006.8 8870.2 10395.2 12397.9 13677.3

U.K (FTSE 100) 5572.3 5897.8 5572.3 5768.4 5571.2 5742.1 5897.8 6411.7 6215.5

Europe (Eurotop) 2100.86 2324.9 2100.9 2209.3 2114.3 2242.0 2324.9 2431.4 2351.6

Hong Kong (HSI) 18434.4 22656.9 18434.4 20555.6 19441.5 20840.4 22656.9 22299.6 20803.3

Brazil (BVSP) 56754 60952 56754 64511 54355 59176 60952 56352 47457

Euro 0.719 0.778 0.742 0.763 0.780 0.799 0.771 0.758 0.766

Yen 79.8 79.8 77.3 79.3 80.1 78.6 81.3 92.3 98.8

Yuan 6.46 6.31 6.34 6.31 6.31 6.33 6.30 6.28 6.27

United States 2.786 1.803 2.050 2.040 1.820 1.640 1.710 1.950 2.000

Japan 1.102 0.836 1.020 0.960 0.850 0.780 0.750 0.650 ..

Eurozone 4.312 3.053 4.200 3.650 3.440 2.900 2.220 2.760 2.870


� World Economy

Country

United States 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.4

Japan -0.6 2.0 1.6 0.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.3 1.0

Eurozone 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3

France 2.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Italy 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6

China 9.4 7.8 8.0 9.1 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 7.7

India 7.7 3.8 5.7 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.2 3.6 2.8

Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8

4.3 3.4 3.4 5.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 2.0 1.8

Country

United States 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4

Japan -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5

China 5.4 2.6 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4

India 8.9 9.3 8.4 7.2 10.1 9.8 10.1 11.7 10.5

France 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8

Germany 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5

Italy 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 1.2

Table 3 : Financial indicators

Country 2011 2012 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1 2013 Q.2

Stock markets (end of period quotes)

USA (S&P 500) 1257.6 1426.19 1257.6 1408.5 1362.2 1440.7 1426.2 1569.2 1606.3

Japan (Nikkei 225) 8455.4 10395.2 8455.3 10083.6 9006.8 8870.2 10395.2 12397.9 13677.3

U.K (FTSE 100) 5572.3 5897.8 5572.3 5768.4 5571.2 5742.1 5897.8 6411.7 6215.5

Europe (Eurotop) 2100.86 2324.9 2100.9 2209.3 2114.3 2242.0 2324.9 2431.4 2351.6

Hong Kong (HSI) 18434.4 22656.9 18434.4 20555.6 19441.5 20840.4 22656.9 22299.6 20803.3

Brazil (BVSP) 56754 60952 56754 64511 54355 59176 60952 56352 47457

Exchange rates (national units per US$, period average)

Euro 0.719 0.778 0.742 0.763 0.780 0.799 0.771 0.758 0.766

Yen 79.8 79.8 77.3 79.3 80.1 78.6 81.3 92.3 98.8

Yuan 6.46 6.31 6.34 6.31 6.31 6.33 6.30 6.28 6.27

Interest rates (long term rates in % per annum, period average)

United States 2.786 1.803 2.050 2.040 1.820 1.640 1.710 1.950 2.000

Japan 1.102 0.836 1.020 0.960 0.850 0.780 0.750 0.650 ..

Eurozone 4.312 3.053 4.200 3.650 3.440 2.900 2.220 2.760 2.870


Table 3: Financial indicators

Despite a favorable near-term prospect for the continent, subdued global

growth continued to constrain African economies in the first half of 2013.

Appreciably weaker demand from advanced countries, combined with

slower growth in several key emerging economies, have driven down

commodity prices, industrial output, and export performance in many

African countries. Exports from some of the larger African economies, such

as Nigeria and South Africa, have been hit by domestic labor problems and

social unrest.

In North Africa, persistent social and political turmoil in Egypt is affectinggrowth, particularly the tourism industry. Similarly, the difficult politicaltransition and social unrest in Tunisia continue to hamper economic growthand a return to stability (see Focus for more analysis on Tunisia). Bycontrast, Morocco’s GDP growth has seen an upward trend since 2012.

Partly due to the “technical rebound” in Libya, the continent’s average real

GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.6% in 2012, 4.8% in 2013, and 5.3% in

2014 (AfDB, African Economic Outlook 2013). However, this is reliant on the

pace of global economic growth, and in particular on the performance of a

several emerging economies which are major importers of African

commodities and key investors in the region.

Weaker growth in the largest African economiesGrowth momentum in the largest African economies showed signs of easing

in the first half of 2013. South Africa’s economy posted weaker than

expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013, amid unresolved domestic

labor issues. The IMF in its World Economic Outlook (July 2013) has slashed

SA’s economic growth projection to just 2% for 2013, down from its 2.8%

forecast in April, citing domestic problems in the form of labor disputes as

well as weaker external demand and falling commodity prices. The IMF

forecast for SA’s economic growth in 2014 is now 2.9%, down from an

earlier forecast of 3.3%.

During the first quarter of 2013, South Africa’s real GDP increased by only2.0% annualized rate. Economic activity in the mining and quarryingindustry reflected positive growth of 3.5%, due to higher production in themining sector (including gold, platinum and other metal ores), whilemanufacturing output posted a negative growth of 2.0%. The latestbusiness confidence index for South Africa shows a decline of four pointsin the second quarter of 2013, with business confidence declining in fourof the five sectors covered by the survey.

Among oil-exporting countries, Nigeria recorded 6.6% GDP growth in thefirst quarter of 2013, compared with 7.0% in the preceding quarter. Thiswas largely due to a decrease in the contribution of the non-oil sector. Therehas been an easing of global demand for oil in recent months which hasmoderated price levels, although most of Africa’s oil-exporting countriescontinue to enjoy healthy growth rates. However, oil output is on downwardtrend in the four African OPEC member states (Algeria, Angola, Libya, andNigeria). Estimates indicate that total crude oil production in these fourcountries in the second quarter 2013 decreased by 2.4% compared to theprevious month, partly due to a sharp fall in hydrocarbon production inLibya.


Africa in the World Economy Economic Growth

2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth - Recent developments (1/3)

As previously mentioned, some countries in North Africa continue to face

difficult domestic problems and uneven political transitions. In particular,

the Egyptian economy has been hard hit by continuing political tensions

and social unrest, which saw the ousting of President Morsi and the Muslim

Brotherhood in early July 2013. Unemployment is continuing to rise, petrol

and food prices have escalated, new investment has fallen dramatically, the

tourism industry has been badly hit, and the fiscal deficit is expected to

widen significantly. Economic recovery will be slow, depending on the

political outcome, with a precarious balance of payments outlook. For other

economies in North Africa, growth will be weaker in those countries with

close trade links to the recession-hit eurozone.

Sluggish global demand affecting tourism and exports in manyAfrican countriesThe fairly robust growth recorded in many African countries in 2012

moderated in the first half of 2013. Nonetheless, domestic demand in many

African countries remains resilient, with commodity prices holding up well,

despite weaker external demand from both advanced and emerging

economies. Austerity measures and unemployment levels in many eurozone

countries have reduced the flow of visitors to a number of African countries

where tourism represents a major source of foreign exchange earnings.

Indicators point to a decline in both tourist arrivals and tourism receipts in

countries such as Kenya, Mauritius, Madagascar, and in the northern

subregion (Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco). According to the UNWTO World

Tourism Barometer update for June 2013, international tourist arrivals for

the first four months of 2013 grew globally by 4.3%, with the greatest gains

in South and Southeast Asia. By contrast, Africa recorded just 2% growth

in international tourist arrivals between January and April.

In Kenya, GDP growth accelerated to 5.3% in the first quarter 2013, from

4.7% and 5.0% in the third and fourth quarters of 2012 respectively. Growth

was largely driven by the agricultural sector, which expanded by 8.3%

compared to 5.8% and 4.8% in the preceding quarters. The improved

agricultural output (particularly tea and horticulture) accounted for roughly

20% of GDP, partly offsetting weaker figures coming out of the industrial

and services sectors.

Real GDP in Namibia for the first quarter of 2013 recorded a slow growth of1.2% compared to 5.0% in the same quarter of 2012. The slowdown wasdue to a loss in real value added in the fishing (-19.5%), manufacturing (-10.9%), construction and hotels (-11.7%) and restaurants (-16.7%) sectors.By contrast, the high-performing sectors during the first quarter 2013 wereagriculture (35.0%) and mining (20.2%).

In Rwanda, estimates for the first quarter of 2013 show that GDP grew by

5.9% in real terms, compared to 8.8% in the previous quarter. Value added

in agriculture grew by 5%, contributing1.8 percentage points to overall GDP

growth; the industry sector grew by 14%, adding 2.1% percentage points

to GDP growth; while the services sector increased by 4.0%, contributing

1.9 percentage points to the GDP growth.


Economic Growth


Africa in the World Economy

Botswana’s real GDP growth slowed to 3.2% in the first quarter of 2013,

compared to 4.1% in the previous quarter. The downturn is attributed to

mining, agriculture and industrial activities, which recorded negative growth;

in particular there was a 4.9% decline in diamond production. In parallel,

total final consumption expenditure recorded an increase of 9.6% in the first

quarter of 2013, with household consumption increasing by 10.1%. Fixed

capital formation recorded a decrease of 0.1% due to a 9.1% decrease in

machinery and equipment accumulation. Export volumes of goods and

services rose by a massive 60.8% in the first quarter of 2013, boosted by

the relocation of the world’s largest diamond company from London to

Botswana in mid-2012, along with its full aggregation and supply chain.

Imports to Botswana increased by 16.7% in the first quarter of 2013.

Industrial output deceleratingIn some countries, manufacturing output is slowing. In South Africa,

manufacturing output stood at a weak 2.2% in May 2013, while mining

production decreased by 0.7% on a yearly base. Political stabilization and

economic recovery continue in Côte d’Ivoire, with industrial output showing

15% growth in the first quarter of 2013, compared to 20% growth one year

earlier. By contrast, industrial production in Senegal moved into negative

territory in the same quarter, while GDP growth reduced to 3.2%, down from

5.2% in last quarter of 2012.

In sum, despite strong headwinds from the global economic slowdown and

various country-specific risks, the overall outlook for the continent remains

favorable, though with growth likely to moderate in 2013. The challenging

global environment should be largely compensated by resilient domestic

demand, an accommodative policy stance, rising investment, and

reasonably high commodity prices. The favorable outlook for Africa is

underpinned by expected increases in agricultural output and in export

volumes for countries with natural resource discoveries.

Table 4: Real GDP growth (%)


Africa in the World Economy Economic Growth


� Africa in the World Economy

2011 2012 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1

6.1 4.2 7.6 5.8 3.3 3.5 4.1 3.2

1.8 4.4 0.4 5.2 3.3 4.3 2.2 4.9

15.0 7.9 15.9 10.3 9.1 7.0 6.0 6.7

4.4 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3

3.9 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.4 2.9

4.9 2.4 4.9 2.8 2.3 2.9 2.0 3.8

4.9 5.0 9.6 5.0 11.2 0.5 3.7 1.2

7.8 6.5 7.7 6.3 6.3 6.5 7.0 6.6

8.3 8.0 8.4 7.0 9.4 6.9 8.8 5.9

2.1 3.8 -1.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 5.2 3.2

3.5 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.9

6.4 6.9 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.5 … …

-2.0 3.6 -1.4 4.6 2.1 3.5 4.0 2.7

4.9 6.4 0.0 2.8 4.7 8.1 10.4 7.3


South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda

Ghana

Kenya

Mauritius

Morocco

Nigeria

Senegal

Namibia

Rwanda

Egypt

Country


Botswana

quarter of 2013, compared to 4.1% in the previous quarter. The downturn is attributed to mining, agriculture and industrial activities, which recorded negative growth; in particular there was a 4.9% decline in diamond production. In parallel, total final consumption expenditure recorded an increase of 9.6% in the first quarter of 2013, with household consumption increasing by 10.1%. Fixed capital formation recorded a decrease of 0.1% due to a 9.1% decrease in machinery and equipment accumulation. Export volumes of goods and services rose by a massive 60.8% in the first quarter of 2013, boosted by the relocation of the world’s largest diamond company from London to Botswana in mid-2012, along with its full aggregation and supply chain. Imports to Botswana increased by 16.7% in the first quarter of 2013.

Industrial output decelerating

In some countries, manufacturing output is slowing. In South Africa , manufacturing output stood at a weak 2.2% in May 2013, while mining production decreased by 0.7% on a yearly base. Political stabilization and economic recovery continue in Côte d’Ivoire , with industrial output showing 15% growth in the first quarter of 2013, compared to 20% growth one year earlier. By contrast, industrial production in Senegal moved into negative territory in the same quarter, while GDP growth reduced to 3.2%, down from 5.2% in last quarter of 2012. In sum, despite strong headwinds from the global economic slowdown and various country-specific risks, the overall outlook for the continent remains favorable, though with growth likely to moderate in 2013. The challenging global environment should be largely compensated by resilient domestic demand, an accommodative policy stance, rising investment, and reasonably high commodity prices. The favorable outlook for Africa is underpinned by expected increases in agricultural output and in export volumes for countries


Africa in the World Economy Focus (1/3)

Tunisian economy

More than two years after the Arab Spring which launched Tunisia’s political transition to a multi-party democracy, the country’s

economic performance still lags well below its full potential. After a severe recession in 2011, and despite a challenging

international environment and persistent domestic political and social tensions, since 2012 the Tunisian economy has shown

signs of a hesitant recovery. Efforts to reinvigorate the economy and achieve a return to political stability and social normalization

depend first and foremost on a diminution of social tensions, including reducing the high level of unemployment and ensuring

a smooth political transition. Other key priorities are to address systemic risks in the financial sector, reduce the level of non-

performing loans, and improve access by small and medium-size enterprises to credit and the broader capital market.

Furthermore, attracting private capital to help fund infrastructure and transport is a priority, as part of a wider program of

reforms in the energy and infrastructure sectors.

Economic prospect closely linked to the political transition

Tunisia is not the first country to have experienced an uncertain political

transition with worrisome economic and social outcomes. Many of the

economic trends that have characterized political instability in other

countries have also been evident in Tunisia. Since the Arab Spring uprising

of 2011, manufacturing output has declined and economic activity has

remained at low levels, while unemployment has increased, especially for

the educated young and women. Macroeconomic fundamentals have

come under pressure as fiscal and current account deficits have

deteriorated. Moreover, insufficient economic growth combined with high

inflation imposes a severe burden on Tunisia’s most vulnerable population.

The economic downturn of 2011 resulted in a 2.0% contraction in real GDP,

with mining output (particularly phosphate extraction), investment and

tourism receipts declining sharply. The worsening situation brought

unemployment to record levels. Other external shocks also increased the

fragility of the Tunisian economy. In 2012, there were promising signs of a

moderate recovery, despite a challenging international environment and

persistent domestic security and social tensions. Helped by “base effects”

and a boost from public spending, tourism-related activities such as

transportation, rebounded in 2012 along with FDI inflows, and this pushed

real GDP growth to 3.6%. The overall unemployment rate also improved,

partly through a significant recruitment drive in the public sector, which

reduced the jobless rate from 18.3% at mid-2011 to 16.7% by end-2012.

GDP annual growth rate rose to 3% in the second quarter of 2013,

compared to 2.7% in the previous quarter. This is well below the GDP

growth levels of 3.5% and 4.0% recorded for the third and fourth quarters

of 2012 respectively. Strong headwinds include a downturn in

manufacturing production during the first six months of 2013, an all-time

high for imports in May, and a fall in exports over the period May to June

2013. Although mining output improved moderately in May, phosphate

production is still 50% below normal levels. Growth in the service industries

has slowed this year, following the recuperative path taken in tourism and

transports during 2012.


Tunisia : Macroeconomic indicators(in % or % of GDP) 2005-2010 2011 2012 2013 *

Real Growth 4.4 -2.0 3.6 3.0

GDP per capita (US$) 3855.1 4334.9 4232.1 4533.0

In!ation 3.7 3.5 5.6 6.0

Fiscal de"cit -1.7 -3.4 -4.9 -5.6

Unemployment 13.0 18.3 16.7 16.0

(*) provisional


-2.7 -7.4 -8.0 -7.3Current account

de"cit

Economic prospect closely linked to the political transitio n

Tunisia is not the first country to have experienced an uncertain political transition with worrisome economic and social outcomes. Many of the economic trends that have characterized political instability in other countries have also been evident in Tunisia. Since the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, manufacturing output has declined and economic activity has remained at low levels, while unemployment has increased, especially for the educated young and women. Macroeconomic fundamentals have come under pressure as fiscal and current account deficits have deteriorated. Moreover, insufficient economic growth combined with high inflation imposes a severe burden on Tunisia’s most vulnerable population. The economic downturn of 2011 resulted in a 2.0% contraction in real GDP, with mining output (particularly phosphate extraction), investment and tourism receipts declining sharply. The worsening situation brought unemployment to record levels. Other external shocks also increased the fragility of the Tunisian economy. In 2012, there were promising signs of a moderate recovery, despite a challenging international environment and persistent domestic security and social tensions. Helped by “base effects” and a boost from public spending, tourism-related activities such as transportation, rebounded in 2012 along with FDI inflows, and this pushed real GDP growth to 3.6%. The overall unemployment rate also improved, partly through a significant recruitment drive in the public sector, which reduced the jobless rate from 18.3% at mid-2011 to 16.7% by end-2012. GDP annual growth rate rose to 3% in the second quarter of 2013, compared to 2.7% in the previous quarter. This is well below the GDP growth levels of 3.5% and 4.0% recorded for the third and fourth quarters of 2012 respectively. Strong headwinds include a downturn in manufacturing production during the first six months of 2013, an all-time high for imports in May, and a fall in exports over the period May to June 2013. Although mining output improvedmoderately in May, phosphate production is still 50% below normal levels. Growth in the service industries has slowed this year, following the recuperative path taken in tourism and transports during 2012.

multi -party democracy, the country’s economic performance still lags well below its full potential . After a severe recession in 2011 , and despite a challenging international environment and persistent domestic political and social tensions, since 2012 the Tunisian economy has shown signs of a hesitant recovery . E!orts to reinvigorate the economy and achieve a return to political stability and social normalization depend "rst and foremost on a diminution of social tensions, including reducing the high level of unemployment and ensuring a smooth political transition . Other key priorities are to address systemic risks in the"nancial sector, reduce the level of non -performing loans, and improve access by small and medium -size enterprises to credit and the broader capital market . Furthermore, attracting private capital to help fund infrastructure and transport is a priority, as part of a wider program of reforms in the energy and infrastructure sectors .

Widening twin deficits Soon after the revolution of 2011, the authorities implemented an expansio-nary fiscal and monetary policy mix to try to boost the economy andaddress the high levels of unemployment and poverty in the country. Mea-sures included higher public sector wages, subsidies for food and fuel,lower banking reserve requirements, and relaxed regulatory measures. Theaim was to mitigate the effects of the economic slump on householdincomes and to quell social unrest. As a result, the overall fiscal deficitincreased to 4.9% of GDP in 2012, although this was lower than first pre-dicted, mostly due to more efficient tax collection and cut-backs on capitalspending.

So far, the government has been able to tap into both domestic and foreignsources to fund the fiscal deficit. In 2011, the country received US$ 1.3 bil-lion (including two US$ 500 million budget support loans from AfDB andWorld Bank), in addition to a US$ 500 million loan from Qatar in April 2012.In July 2012, Tunisia issued a seven-year, US$ 485 millionUS government‑guaranteed bond at 1.69%, marking the country’s entryback into capital markets for the first time since 2007.

In March 2013, amid much public criticism, the government pressed aheadwith tax rises and cuts to expensive government subsidies that are strainingthe state budget. Authorities raised most fuel prices for the second time insix months, lifting petrol prices at the pump by 6.8%. Taxes on alcohol alsoincreased and the state-controlled milk price rose. Also in March 2013, thegovernment imposed a levy of 1% on monthly salaries above 1,700 dinars($1,075) to help fund remaining subsidies on fuel and food.

Given the budget deficit, which is running at around 6%, it was welcomenews for the government when in early June 2013, the IMF approved a$1.74 billion loan for Tunisia. As part of the IMF loan, the government is obli-ged to enact a number of financial and government reforms, including somerestructuring of the banking sector and to reduce the high number of non-performing loans in state banks. The forecast for 2013 is for the overall fiscaldeficit to widen to allow for state bank recapitalization, much-needed publicinvestments in the marginalized regions of the interior regions of the country,and increased social expenditures.

Tunisia has also seen a severe worsening of its current account deficit overthe past two years. Since the end of 2010, Tunisia’s foreign trade has beenmarked by weakening exports, both in current values and in volume terms.The country has high exposure to the slowdown in the eurozone, whichrepresents by far its largest trading partner. Despite a depreciation of theDinar during the first half of 2013, exports fell from April to May 2013, afterreaching an all-time high in March 2013. During the first six months of 2013,merchandise exports rose by 6.1%, supported temporarily by the surge inthe price of virgin olive oil, which contributed 2 percentage points to totalexports revenue. Meanwhile, imports rose to an all-time high in May 2013.Although there has been some improvement in tourism receipts since thestart of 2013, these have yet to return to the pre-revolution levels. Meanw-hile FDI inflows remain low by historical standards. All this raises questionsover debt sustainability. Exports of goods and services account forapproximately 90% of the total balance of payments resources, two-thirdsof which is represented by merchandise flows.

Thus, trade balance is particularly determinant in shaping the evolution ofthe external current account balance. The deficit continued to widen in 2012,reaching 8.1% of GDP, driven by falling demand from the eurozone and anincrease in imports. The steep increases in remittances from Tunisiansworking abroad which were recorded in late 2012 have since fallen back.Tourism receipts remain flat, well below their 2009 and 2010 levels.


Africa in the World EconomyTunisian economy (continued)

Focus (2/3)


Africa in the World Economy Focus (3/3)

Tunisian economy (continued)

Weaknesses in the pattern of trade and the subdued tourist prospects willcontinue to exert substantial pressures on the current account balance.

During the last quarter of 2012, gross central bank reserves reached about$8.4 billion, equivalent to 3.8 months of imports but still 20% below 2010levels. During the first half of 2013, the widening current account deficit,coupled with a defense of the exchange rate, saw international reservesdecline further, despite important bilateral and multilateral budget support.In sum, the sharp depreciation of the Tunisian Dinar (which dropped by3.7% in nominal exchange rate terms during the first half of 2013) isindicative of the uncertain economic and political situation, which causedmajor rating agencies to downgrade Tunisia’s debt rating below investmentgrade in May 2013 and then again in July 2013.

Rising inflationAfter reaching 5.4% in the final quarter of 2012, headline inflation rose to

6.4% in April 2013, stabilizing at the same level in May and June. The rise

reflects increased food prices, constraints in the distribution system, and

additional demands originating from neighboring countries. Domestic

supply disruptions are now fueling inflation and compounding the problems

of a subsidy-laden national budget. Three factors have likely contributed to

these developments: (i) the return of a large number of refugees and migrant

workers who fled the civil war in Libya, so boosting domestic demand for

food products; (ii) intensified informal trade with neighboring countries that

have higher food prices and which reduced the supply in Tunisia; and (iii)

the control mechanism over the distribution system of food products broke

down.

The consumer price index registered steep increases since the start of 2011,

with food inflation hitting two digits and fuel prices increasing by nearly 7%,

the second hikes in the past nine months. In the context of political turmoil,

social protest and declining world commodity prices in general, transition

governments during 2011 and 2012 were prone to reduce food and fuel

subsidies, civil services wage increases and other public spending

increases. However, core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained

below 5% since September 2012, reflecting decelerating credit growth and

the central bank’s move towards a tighter monetary stance (see below). The

increase in headline inflation from 5.1% in January 2012 to 6.4% in the

second quarter 2013 is mainly explained by recent rises in administered

prices of petroleum products and energy tariffs, while food price rises reflect

increases in non-administered prices. Overall, administered prices remained

more subdued over the period (4.3%) than non-administered prices (7.3%).

Having stepped up its refinancing of banks for most of 2012, the Central

Bank of Tunisia (CBT) has tightened monetary policy recently. As a result,

the CBT responded to rising inflation by: increasing its benchmark policy

rate by 50 bps since August 2012 to 4%, by modifying the interest corridor

for the 24-hour standing facilities, letting the interbank rate increase to 70

bps above the policy rate; and by implementing tighter reserve requirements

for consumer credit.

Data sources : National Statistics Institute / Central Bank of Tunisia

Import growth in emerging economies deceleratingGlobal trade volume tended to stabilize through the first quarter 2013 and

posted a more weaker pace. Import demand emanating from developing

countries is decelerating, while among advanced countries it is contracting.

Going forward, with business sentiment indicators suggesting a softer patch

in second quarter 2013, it is likely that import demand in both developing

and advanced countries will continue to weaken.

Consistent with the weakening of import demand, export growth has also

slowed down in recent months. As with imports, advanced countries export

growth is contracting, whereas for developing countries the pace of

expansion has decelerated. However, the picture is mixed across

developing regions. The deceleration is strongest in the East Asia and to a

lesser extent in South Asia and in Latin America export growth is actually

accelerating.

African trade flows continue at a moderate paceIn a context of weakening global economic conditions, exports flows for

most African economies moderated during 2012 and in the first quarter of

2013, reflecting a slowing momentum in world trade. By contrast, the

deceleration in imports has been less acute, highlighting the resilience of

domestic demand.

Exports from major African economies of the continent recovered in the first

quarter of 2013. Figures for South Africa show the current account deficit

narrowing to 5.8% of GDP in the first three months of the year. This resulted

from: an increase in external demand, especially from emerging economies;

firm international prices for South African export commodities; an

improvement in the terms of trade; and a more competitive exchange value

of the rand. Although imports also rose significantly as domestic expenditure

expanded, the cost of imports was still at a lower level than exports

proceeds. Simultaneously, the deficit on the services and current transfer

account narrowed, reflecting improved travel and dividend receipts from the

rest of the world.

However, available data for May 2013 show a relative deceleration in trade

flows across several African countries. Performance has been hit by the

overall decrease in global import demand and the easing of commodity

prices in the second quarter of 2013. The contraction in import demand

from some North Africa countries persisted through the second quarter,

against a backdrop of continuing political and social challenges in the

subregion.

Going forward, with business sentiment indicators suggesting a softer patch

in the second quarter of 2013, it is likely that import demand from both

emerging and advanced countries will remain subdued.


Africa in the World Economy

2.2 - AFRICA: Merchandise trade

Foreign Trade


Africa in the World Economy Foreign Trade

Table 5: Merchandise trade for selected African countries (%)


Country 2011 Q.2 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1

Algeria 27.0 36.7 25.7 9.3 -3.8 -5.1 -3.4 2.5

Mauritius 19.2 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.7 3.5

Morocco 29.2 19.6 10.5 -0.1 -2.8 -2.7 -1.9 -0.5

Nigeria 43.8 35.0 23.8 6.9 1.2 -2.9 -5.2 -4.7

Tanzania 24.4 11.8 15.0 20.9 25.7 21.2 7.4 3.7

Tunisia 12.9 9.3 1.9 -4.6 -7.1 -6.9 -1.1 2.2

Algeria 20.0 16.4 5.6 -2.2 -3.7 2.9 12.4 14.8

Mauritius 20.2 15.7 12.7 9.7 5.4 2.6 -4.6 -6.1

Morocco 28.9 25.2 16.0 6.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.8 -1.7

Nigeria 32.2 26.1 -0.3 -4.1 -11.4 -8.8 -2.6 -1.3

Tanzania 33.9 44.1 42.0 27.3 11.4 -0.6 -2.9 -2.4

Tunisia 8.5 10.8 10.3 4.5 2.4 -1.3 0.2 -0.6

Country

Algeria 18950.1 18692.9 18669.6 15702.5 13927.6 13432.3 14358.7 14966.8Angola 14301.4 15007.0 16112.2 17686.2 17865.1 15157.5 16244.9 18776.1Benin 233.2 215.7 202.8 272.4 221.2 244.9 213.5 319.3Burkina Faso 191.1 214.4 215.6 214.6 244.0 177.3 166.4 147.0Cameroon 1528.4 1271.3 1240.3 1395.1 1317.9 1284.3 1452.8 1438.6Congo, Dem. Rep. 1393.6 1567.4 1546.9 1440.9 1600.4 1314.1 1541.1 1646.2Congo, Rep. 2741.2 3097.7 2609.4 3182.4 2619.7 2236.5 2625.1 2564.5Cote d'Ivoire 2997.2 3362.6 2359.3 2834.9 2529.5 2451.9 2382.1 2713.8Djibouti 124.8 130.7 159.5 137.8 149.6 134.5 133.9 138.3Egypt 7824.7 7647.2 7841.6 7477.6 6759.1 7523.3 7708.4 7756.1Equatorial Guinea 2762.8 3214.5 3045.0 3418.0 3270.0 3624.1 3691.2 2775.3Ethiopia 517.7 528.2 498.9 463.6 512.1 488.5 599.6 558.7Gabon 2615.0 2376.8 2526.4 2614.9 2607.3 2673.4 2460.5 2465.0Ghana 2194.5 2147.2 2484.1 2170.2 2001.3 1863.4 2142.5 2751.5Guinea 664.4 586.5 387.9 605.3 509.0 373.5 405.1 1002.8Guinea-Bissau 49.9 82.9 127.2 53.5 50.9 45.6 60.1 85.4Libya 1866.0 787.3 2980.0 9379.5 14016.1 17118.6 13657.0 10057.8Madagascar 359.1 536.6 410.7 486.3 381.2 350.2 393.8 566.5Mauritania 789.5 814.9 633.3 730.9 806.9 636.3 599.3 859.7Mauritius 563.4 552.1 501.8 561.4 576.9 536.8 562.6 619.1Morocco 5257.2 5484.2 5469.8 5485.4 5098.0 5166.7 5564.4 5106.9Mozambique 974.6 771.4 909.9 992.0 1014.2 1020.7 1125.7 1158.8Niger 161.1 94.3 161.3 200.5 154.4 55.9 73.9 105.0Nigeria 28366.3 26964.4 25077.9 27882.1 27828.9 25054.5 25843.7 28413.6Seychelles 84.6 85.8 97.7 103.4 104.8 106.3 106.2 121.2South Africa 24885.6 24507.3 23382.5 23869.1 21844.6 20867.0 21277.7 21505.0Tunisia 4800.2 4526.0 4238.0 4361.2 4218.7 4072.8 4381.8 4513.7Uganda 668.1 706.8 607.7 661.4 736.6 738.5 703.3 744.8Zambia 1631.9 1548.0 1461.3 1337.0 1709.5 1354.9 1387.8 1317.0Zimbabwe 728.6 603.0 615.5 675.7 574.0 532.2 804.7 844.5


ii % change on same quarter of previous year

Exports

Imports

2.2 - AFRICA: Summary of trade statistics

Table 6: Exports for selected African countries (current millions of US$, s.a)


Country

Algeria 27.0 36.7 25.7 9.3 -3.8 -5.1 -3.4 2.5

Mauritius 19.2 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.7 3.5

Morocco 29.2 19.6 10.5 -0.1 -2.8 -2.7 -1.9 -0.5

Nigeria 43.8 35.0 23.8 6.9 1.2 -2.9 -5.2 -4.7

Tunisia 12.9 9.3 1.9 -4.6 -7.1 -6.9 -1.1 2.2

Algeria 20.0 16.4 5.6 -2.2 -3.7 2.9 12.4 14.8

Mauritius 20.2 15.7 12.7 9.7 5.4 2.6 -4.6 -6.1

Morocco 28.9 25.2 16.0 6.3 -0.5 -0.6 -1.8 -1.7

Nigeria 32.2 26.1 -0.3 -4.1 -11.4 -8.8 -2.6 -1.3

Tanzania 33.9 44.1 42.0 27.3 11.4 -0.6 -2.9 -2.4

Tunisia 8.5 10.8 10.3 4.5 2.4 -1.3 0.2 -0.6

Table 6 : Exports for selected African countries (current millions of US$, s.a)

Country 2011 Q.2 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1

Algeria 18950.1 18692.9 18669.6 15702.5 13927.6 13432.3 14358.7 14966.8Angola 14301.4 15007.0 16112.2 17686.2 17865.1 15157.5 16244.9 18776.1Benin 233.2 215.7 202.8 272.4 221.2 244.9 213.5 319.3Burkina Faso 191.1 214.4 215.6 214.6 244.0 177.3 166.4 147.0Cameroon 1528.4 1271.3 1240.3 1395.1 1317.9 1284.3 1452.8 1438.6Congo, Dem. Rep. 1393.6 1567.4 1546.9 1440.9 1600.4 1314.1 1541.1 1646.2Congo, Rep. 2741.2 3097.7 2609.4 3182.4 2619.7 2236.5 2625.1 2564.5Cote d'Ivoire 2997.2 3362.6 2359.3 2834.9 2529.5 2451.9 2382.1 2713.8Djibouti 124.8 130.7 159.5 137.8 149.6 134.5 133.9 138.3Egypt 7824.7 7647.2 7841.6 7477.6 6759.1 7523.3 7708.4 7756.1Equatorial Guinea 2762.8 3214.5 3045.0 3418.0 3270.0 3624.1 3691.2 2775.3Ethiopia 517.7 528.2 498.9 463.6 512.1 488.5 599.6 558.7Gabon 2615.0 2376.8 2526.4 2614.9 2607.3 2673.4 2460.5 2465.0Ghana 2194.5 2147.2 2484.1 2170.2 2001.3 1863.4 2142.5 2751.5Guinea 664.4 586.5 387.9 605.3 509.0 373.5 405.1 1002.8Guinea-Bissau 49.9 82.9 127.2 53.5 50.9 45.6 60.1 85.4Libya 1866.0 787.3 2980.0 9379.5 14016.1 17118.6 13657.0 10057.8Madagascar 359.1 536.6 410.7 486.3 381.2 350.2 393.8 566.5Mauritania 789.5 814.9 633.3 730.9 806.9 636.3 599.3 859.7Mauritius 563.4 552.1 501.8 561.4 576.9 536.8 562.6 619.1Morocco 5257.2 5484.2 5469.8 5485.4 5098.0 5166.7 5564.4 5106.9Mozambique 974.6 771.4 909.9 992.0 1014.2 1020.7 1125.7 1158.8Niger 161.1 94.3 161.3 200.5 154.4 55.9 73.9 105.0Nigeria 28366.3 26964.4 25077.9 27882.1 27828.9 25054.5 25843.7 28413.6Seychelles 84.6 85.8 97.7 103.4 104.8 106.3 106.2 121.2South Africa 24885.6 24507.3 23382.5 23869.1 21844.6 20867.0 21277.7 21505.0Tunisia 4800.2 4526.0 4238.0 4361.2 4218.7 4072.8 4381.8 4513.7Uganda 668.1 706.8 607.7 661.4 736.6 738.5 703.3 744.8Zambia 1631.9 1548.0 1461.3 1337.0 1709.5 1354.9 1387.8 1317.0Zimbabwe 728.6 603.0 615.5 675.7 574.0 532.2 804.7 844.5


Most commodity prices falling since the start of the yearMost commodity prices fell during the first half of 2013, due to the uncertain

global economic outlook. Food prices have been on a stabilizing trend,

which is mainly a reflection of improved supply conditions. The price of

crude oil dropped to nearly $103/bbl for Brent during the second quarter of

2013, down from $113/bbl in the previous quarter. The IMF metal price index

for June was down 17% since its February 2013 peak. Precious metals are

down as well, for example, the price of gold is 20% lower than in December

2012 and around 24% below its all-time high of August 2011.

Oil prices have fluctuated over the past two years. This trend has been

driven mainly by the geopolitical concerns in the Middle East on the supply

side and by eurozone sovereign debt issues and a slowdown in emerging

economies’ growth prospects, on the demand side. Price increases in early

2013 were reversed therefore, as supply conditions improved and concerns

about market conditions in the eurozone eased. Energy index prices in June

2013 were 7% lower than at the beginning of the year.

Price risks for raw materials, especially metals hinge on two main factors:

(i) the speed at which new supply comes on stream and (ii) the pace of

China’s economic growth. Metal prices have declined 34% since their early

2011 highs. The price weakness reflects both a slowdown in demand growth

and strong supply response. The higher level of supply has resulted from

increased investments over the past few years, induced by high prices. For

some metals, stocks have increased considerably as well.

For agricultural commodity markets, weather remains a key risk. According

to the Global Crop Outlook assessment released in July 2013, the global

maize market will be better supplied in the upcoming 2013/14 season. The

wheat market, which is currently better supplied than maize, could also

come under pressure, either from poor crop yields or in conjunction with

higher maize prices. In contrast, price risks for rice are on the downside,

especially in view of the large public stocks held by Thailand.

Beverage prices subduedThe IMF index for this category is down by 36.4% since its February 2011

record high. Coffee prices have witnessed significant volatility over the past

two years – especially Arabica, which reached an all-time high in 2011 due

to a production shortfall in Colombia, the world’s second-largest Arabica

supplier after Brazil. However, as coffee companies began using more

Robusta in their blends, Arabica prices declined and are now hovering at

half their 2011 highs. Furthermore, Brazil – the world’s top coffee supplier–

is expecting a bumper crop in 2013/14 (April-March), while coffee supplies

from Vietnam (the world’s largest Robusta supplier), Colombia, and

Indonesia are also expected to be large.


Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices2.3 - AFRICA: Commodity trends


Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices 2.3 - AFRICA: Summary of commodity prices

Table 7: Commodity Prices


Table 7 : Commodity Prices

Commodity 2011 2012 2012 /2011June 2013 / May 2013

Q2 2013 / Q1 2013

Q2 2013 / Q2 2012

Apr. 2013 May 2013 June 2013 % % %

EnergyCoal, Australia, $/mt 121.4 96.4 87.8 87.7 82.8 -20.7 îîîî -7.3 -18.3

Crude oil, Brent, $/b 110.9 112.0 102.9 103.0 103.1 0.9 è -8.8 -4.8

Crude oil, WTI, $/b 95.1 94.2 92.0 94.8 95.8 -0.9 ìì -0.1 -8.3

Natural gas, Europe, $/mmbtu 10.5 11.5 12.9 12.3 11.9 9.1 îî 4.4 2.8

AgricultureBeverages & oils

Cocoa, c/kg 298.0 239.2 229.4 234.3 228.4 -19.7 îî 4.4 -5.6

Coffee, Arabica, c/kg 597.6 411.1 330.3 324.5 304.8 -31.2 îîîî -4.7 -31.1

Coffee, Robusta, c/kg 240.8 226.7 224.2 218.6 200.1 -5.8 îîîî -5.9 2.6

Tea, Kokata auctions, c/kg 277.9 275.0 290.9 318.4 284.4 -1.0 îîîî 15.4 25.7

Tea, Mombasa auctions, c/kg 271.9 288.1 236.8 238.8 230.8 5.9 îî -18.1 7.7

Palm oil ($/mt) 1 125.4 999.3 842.0 849.0 861.0 -11.2 ìì -0.2 -23.0

Soybean oil ($/mt) 1 299.3 1 226.3 1 095.0 1 073.0 1 043.0 -5.6 îî -7.8 -7.4

Grains

Maize, $/mt 291.7 298.4 303.1 302.7 309.0 2.3 ìì -4.5 9.8

Rice, Thailand, 5%, $/mt 543.0 563.0 564.2 563.0 559.0 3.7 îî -2.8 3.6

Sorghum, $/mt 268.7 271.9 291.0 288.1 296.7 1.2 ìì -11.0 8.3

Wheat, US, SRW, $/mt 285.9 295.4 309.0 298.0 285.9 3.3 îî -7.5 14.9

Other Food

Bananas, EU, $/mt 1 124.7 1 099.7 1 095.6 1 112.4 1 079.2 -2.2 îî -2.1 -4.1

Beef, c/kg 968.0 984.0 928.7 923.2 937.0 1.7 ìì -2.4 -11.7

Oranges, $/mt 404.2 414.2 430.7 428.0 422.7 2.5 îî -3.8 0.6

Sugar, EU, c/kg 1 537.4 1 558.3 1 919.0 1 884.0 1 803.0 1.4 îî -2.5 43.8

Sugar, world, c/kg 891.1 868.0 750.0 819.6 908.1 -2.6 ìììììì 28.6 7.2

Raw MaterialsTimber

Logs, Cameroon, $/cum 484.8 451.4 465.6 466.9 436.2 -6.9 îîîî 0.3 -1.6Plywood, c/sheets 390.5 360.5 334.1 319.7 313.8 -7.7 îî -6.4 -13.6Sawnwood, Cameroon, $/cum 607.5 610.3 612.9 586.4 575.6 0.5 îî -6.4 -3.5

Other Raw Materials

Cotton, A Index, c/kg 332.9 196.7 188.5 197.8 208.2 -40.9 ìììì 3.1 -10.5Rubber, Singapore, c/kg 482.3 337.7 330.4 318.6 297.7 -30.0 îîîî -7.9 -18.1DAP, $/mt 618.9 539.8 485.0 482.3 507.5 -12.8 ìììì -0.2 -4.8Phosphate rock, $/mt 184.9 185.9 179.0 170.0 170.0 0.5 è -3.9 -11.7Metals and MineralsAluminum, $/ton 2 401.4 2 023.3 2 037.8 2 053.6 1 909.6 -15.7 îîîî -8.2 -8.2Copper, $/mt 8 828.2 7 962.3 8 047.4 8 060.9 7 645.6 -9.8 îîîî -9.6 -4.8Gold, $/toz 1 569.2 1 669.5 1 671.8 1 627.6 1 593.1 6.4 îî -13.2 -3.6Iron ore, c/dmtu 167.8 128.5 150.8 154.7 139.9 -23.4 îîîî -15.4 4.7Lead, c/kg 240.1 206.5 233.4 236.6 216.9 -14.0 îîîî -10.3 9.5Nickel, $/mt 22 910.4 17 547.5 17 472.5 17 690.1 16 724.9 -23.4 îîîî -13.5 -11.9Silver, c/toz 3 522.4 3 113.7 3 106.2 3 032.9 2 879.1 -11.6 îîîî -22.9 -7.7Tin, c/kg 2 605.4 2 112.6 2 454.6 2 421.2 2 329.7 -18.9 îî -13.0 4.9Zinc, c/kg 219.4 195.0 203.2 212.9 192.6 -11.1 îîîî -9.2 0.2Platinum ($/troy oz) 1 719.5 1 550.8 1 638.9 1 674.6 1 583.0 -9.8 îîîî -10.2 1.7

îî/ìì slight (-/+) change îîîî/ìììì moderate (-/+) change îîîîîî/ìììììì large (-/+) change


2013

Source : World Bank

Inflation generally easing......

In the first half of 2013, headline inflation rates in the continent receded

significantly, maintaining the downward trend that began in mid-2012. There

were, however, some notable exceptions, particularly in North Africa. On

aggregate, inflation in Africa is anticipated to fall from more than 9% in 2012

to 7.4% in 2013 and 7.2% in 2014. The factors driving this decline include

some moderation in food and fuel prices, tightening of monetary policies in

high-inflation countries, and improved weather conditions in both East Africa

and the Sahel.

Disinflation was particularly marked in East Africa over the period January

2012 to June 2013, with inflation dropping from 32% to 6% in Ethiopia; from

25.7% to 3.4% in Uganda; and from 19% to 4.9% in Kenya. The steep

decrease is mainly explained by good harvests, tight monetary policies and,

in some cases, the appreciation of local currencies, reversing the

movements observed back in 2011. Facing rising inflation and depreciating

currencies, the central banks of Uganda and Kenya adopted an aggressive

monetary tightening strategy in late 2011, in coordination with their partners

in the East African Community. In Tanzania, where the monetary authorities

followed a similar but less aggressive approach, inflation has come down

more slowly and rates remain at peak levels.

...... with notable exceptionsIn South Africa, headline consumer price inflation continued to accelerate

from a low of 4.9% in July 2012 to 5.9% in February 2013. The headline

consumer price inflation then leveled off at 5.5% in June 2013, remaining

within the inflation target range of 3 to 6%. The acceleration in consumer

price inflation could initially be attributed largely to a price inflation of

consumer goods; notably energy and food. However, consumer services

price inflation has also accelerated in recent months. Renewed wage cost

pressure amid an unsettled labor market environment, as well as the

possible lagged pass-through effect of the depreciation of the rand,

continue to pose an upside risk to the domestic inflation outlook.

By contrast, Ghana’s inflation rate continued to rise to 11.2% in June 2013

from 10.6% in April 2013 and 8.8% in March, reflecting the depreciation of

the Cedi, minimum wage hikes, and fiscal pressures. This was despite the

central bank increasing its key interest rate by 100 b.p. to 14.5% in April

2013. In North Africa, Egypt’s inflation accelerated to 9.8% in June, up from

8.2% in May, which was the fastest rate of inflation since mid-2011. Food

prices spiked at 12.6% in June 2013 (the sharpest rise since December

2011) while core inflation rose by 8.5% in June, the fastest rate seen since

March 2012.


Africa in the World Economy Inflation / Money Supply

2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation


Africa in the World Economy Inflation

2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation summary

Table 8: Consumer Price Inflation (in %) % change on same quarter of previous year


Country 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1 Apr. 2013 May 2013 June 2013

Algeria 9.0 9.5 8.0 9.1 6.6 3.1 3.5 ...Angola 11.3 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.2 ...Benin 6.5 6.7 6.5 7.4 2.5 3.1 ... ...Botswana 8.3 7.5 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.2 6.1 5.8Burkina Faso 3.3 3.8 4.7 3.4 2.5 2.3 1.1 ...Burundi 22.7 20.9 15.9 13.2 7.6 ... ... ...Cameroon 2.5 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.9 ... ... ...Cape Verde 2.5 1.5 2.3 3.9 3.4 2.3 1.4 ...Central African Republic 5.7 4.7 5.7 4.2 -0.9 0.2 ... ...Chad -3.7 6.6 20.9 17.6 ... ... ... ...Comoros -0.2 0.6 3.2 4.0 19.1 23.5 19.4 ...Congo, Rep. -1.1 0.2 8.0 8.7 8.5 ... ... ...Côte d'Ivoire 1.6 -1.4 2.0 3.1 3.5 4.0 ... ...Djibouti 4.0 5.2 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.9 ...Egypt 8.9 8.1 6.4 5.2 7.4 8.0 8.2 9.8Equatorial Guinea 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.0 ... ... ... ...Ethiopia 33.4 25.4 19.8 16.6 10.3 5.9 ... ...Gabon 2.7 1.3 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.4 ...Ghana 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.2 9.7 10.6 10.9 11.2Guinea 21.7 20.2 17.8 15.5 14.7 13.1 ... ...Guinea-Bissau 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.7 ... ... ...Kenya 17.1 11.8 6.3 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.9Lesotho 5.4 6.9 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.2 4.9 ...Liberia 9.1 10.7 9.2 7.2 4.5 6.6 ... ...Libya ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Madagascar 5.3 6.8 6.7 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.8 ...Malawi 10.8 16.6 25.2 32.8 36.5 35.8 31.0 ...Mali 5.4 7.3 5.6 3.5 -0.3 -1.1 -1.7 ...Mauritania 5.7 5.7 4.6 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 ...Mauritius 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.6Morocco 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.3Mozambique 2.0 0.8 0.3 1.5 4.1 4.8 4.9 4.9Namibia 7.0 6.0 6.2 7.0 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.2Niger -0.4 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 ...Nigeria 12.0 12.8 12.1 12.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.4Rwanda 8.0 7.0 5.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 2.9 ...Sao Tome and Principe 14.5 12.5 11.0 9.2 11.4 11.0 10.4 ...Senegal 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.2 0.3 1.2 0.7Seychelles 6.1 8.0 7.8 6.5 6.4 5.3 3.5 ...Sierra Leone 15.6 12.8 11.9 11.4 11.7 11.4 ... ...South Africa 6.1 5.8 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.6 ...Sudan 23.4 34.0 42.4 47.8 ... ... ... ...Swaziland 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.1 ... ... ... ...Tanzania, United Rep. 14.5 18.9 19.5 18.1 14.6 12.3 10.4 7.6Togo 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 3.3 2.4 1.8 2.1Tunisia 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4Uganda 24.2 18.8 10.6 4.9 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.4Zambia 6.3 6.6 6.4 7.0 6.8 6.5 7.0 7.3


Further depreciation against the dollar

International reserve levels in the continent increased during 2012 and also

during January 2013, although at a weaker pace in recent months. This

aggregate trend though masks sharp divergences in reserve coverage levels

among African economies. In February, Egypt's foreign reserves dropped

to $13.5bn dollars, but thanks to loans from Qatar, Turkey and Libya, the

reserves recovered. Egypt's foreign reserves stood at about $36bn dollars

in January 2011 and have been on a continuous decline since then.

Recently, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pledged a total

of $8bn to Egypt to help support its ailing economy, in a mix of cash, central

bank deposits and oil products, as the new Egyptian administration grapples

to halt the slide in the local currency and stave off a foreign exchange

reserves crisis. With foreign reserves standing at $14.9bn at the end of June

and with $1bn worth of commitments to Paris Club debtors in July, Egypt

was dangerously close to dropping below three months of import cover.

During the first half of 2013, almost all major currencies maintained their

depreciation trend against the dollar. This was the case with the rand, which

also saw its value depreciate due to a number of factors: South Africa’s

comparatively large current-account deficit, loss of international

competitiveness, constraints on electricity supply, labor unrest, the

possibility of weaker global demand for commodities, and concerns about

further sovereign debt downgrades. During May, severe industrial action

and violent unrest highlighted the risk of further mining-supply disruptions,

exacerbating the Rand's depreciation.

Sub-Saharan equity markets booming

Many Sub-Saharan equity markets continued to attract international

investors looking for higher returns in emerging markets. Parallel with the

uptrend in mature global stock markets since mid-2012, African equity

indexes overall have registered robust performances, despite some

divergence among subregions. Except in some North African countries,

where the political uncertainties continue to exert a negative impact on

investors’ confidence, all major equity markets in the continent recorded

steady performance during the first half of 2013.

In particular, stock markets in West Africa posted good performances, with

the BRVM index climbing by 27.3% between December 2012 and June

2013, as the outlook for the subregion strengthened. Over the same period,

Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria all recorded a two-digit uptick in their stock

markets. Share prices on the South Africa's stock market reached record

highs in the first part of 2013, while bond yields reached 40-year lows.

However, in May and June the depreciation of the rand and associated

expectations of higher inflation led to a significant firming of bond yields,

while rates on forward rate agreements also rose notably.


Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues

2.5 - AFRICA: Financial indicators


Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators

Table 9: Exchange rates for selected countries (national currency per U.S$, period average)


Table 9 : Exchange rates for selected countries (national currency per U.S$, period average)

Country 2011 2012 Q.2 2013 / Q1 2013

Q.2 2013 / Q2 2012

June 2013/ June 2012

April May June

Algeria 72.94 77.61 78.92 79.23 79.09 0.7 4.6 1.6

Botswana 6.838 7.620 8.164 8.307 8.580 3.7 10.1 10.4

Ethiopia 16.90 17.79 18.55 18.62 18.70 1.3 5.6 5.3

Ghana 1.504 1.852 1.953 1.988 2.011 3.7 6.0 4.6

Mauritius 28.71 30.12 31.09 31.11 30.96 0.9 4.6 1.7

Morocco 8.090 8.631 8.539 8.562 8.456 0.9 -1.5 -4.0

Nigeria 153.90 158.80 158.18 158.00 160.26 0.8 -0.4 -1.3

Sierra Leone 4 348.6 4 344.7 4 320.7 4 322.9 4 330.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.2

Uganda 2 522.7 2 504.5 2 578.1 2 585.0 2 591.6 -2.7 3.8 4.3

WAEMU 471.9 510.4 503.6 505.4 497.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.9

Country

April May June

Botswana 6 970.9 7 510.2 8 735.4 8 669.4 8 688.5 15.7 0.2 23.5

Egypt 3 622.4 5 462.4 5 198.9 5 438.8 4 752.2 -13.0 -12.6 0.9

Kenya 3 205.0 4 133.0 4 763.1 4 996.1 4 598.2 11.3 -8.0 24.1

Mauritius 1 888.4 1 732.1 1 900.2 1 949.4 1 907.4 10.1 -2.2 -6.4

Morocco 9 011.6 7 614.0 7 450.2 7 236.6 7 139.9 -6.2 -1.3 -13.4

Namibia 838.2 983.8 915.9 950.8 893.4 -9.2 -6.0 -0.7

South Africa 31 985.7 39 250.2 39 128.9 41 432.5 39 621.0 0.9 -4.4 17.5

Tanzania 1 303.2 1 485.6 1 536.0 1 548.4 1 582.5 6.5 2.2 10.1

Tunisia 4 722.3 4 579.9 4 622.3 4 569.8 4 608.4 0.6 0.8 -7.5


CFA Franc

2013

% change

Algerian Dinar

Naira-Nigeria

Leone

Ugandan shilling

Currency

Pula-Botswana

Ethiopian Birr

Cedi-Ghana

Mauritius Rupee

Dirham-Morocco

Table 10: Stock market indexes for selected countries (end of period quotes, %)


Country

April May June

Algeria 72.94 77.61 78.92 79.23 79.09 0.7 4.6 1.6

Botswana 6.838 7.620 8.164 8.307 8.580 3.7 10.1 10.4

Ghana 1.504 1.852 1.953 1.988 2.011 3.7 6.0 4.6

Mauritius 28.71 30.12 31.09 31.11 30.96 0.9 4.6 1.7

Morocco 8.090 8.631 8.539 8.562 8.456 0.9 -1.5 -4.0

Nigeria 153.90 158.80 158.18 158.00 160.26 0.8 -0.4 -1.3

Sierra Leone 4 348.6 4 344.7 4 320.7 4 322.9 4 330.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.2

Uganda 2 522.7 2 504.5 2 578.1 2 585.0 2 591.6 -2.7 3.8 4.3

WAEMU 471.9 510.4 503.6 505.4 497.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.9

Country 2011 2012 June 2013/ Dec.2012

June 2013/ May 2013

June 2013/ June 2012

April May June

Botswana 6 970.9 7 510.2 8 735.4 8 669.4 8 688.5 15.7 0.2 23.5

Egypt 3 622.4 5 462.4 5 198.9 5 438.8 4 752.2 -13.0 -12.6 0.9

Kenya 3 205.0 4 133.0 4 763.1 4 996.1 4 598.2 11.3 -8.0 24.1

Mauritius 1 888.4 1 732.1 1 900.2 1 949.4 1 907.4 10.1 -2.2 -6.4

Morocco 9 011.6 7 614.0 7 450.2 7 236.6 7 139.9 -6.2 -1.3 -13.4

Namibia 838.2 983.8 915.9 950.8 893.4 -9.2 -6.0 -0.7

South Africa 31 985.7 39 250.2 39 128.9 41 432.5 39 621.0 0.9 -4.4 17.5

Tanzania 1 303.2 1 485.6 1 536.0 1 548.4 1 582.5 6.5 2.2 10.1

Tunisia 4 722.3 4 579.9 4 622.3 4 569.8 4 608.4 0.6 0.8 -7.5


Tunindex

All Share Index

2013

% change

Gaborone Index

EGX 30 Index

Nairobi All Share

Semdex

Madex Free Float Index

Overall Index

FTSE/JSE All Share

Index

Table 11: Exchange rates (national currency per US$) Period average


Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues

2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators


Table 11 : Exchange rates (national currency per US$) Period average

Country Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2Algeria 73.09 74.37 74.95 75.59 80.71 79.19 78.52 79.08Angola 93.61 94.90 95.05 95.29 95.42 95.63 96.02 96.12Benin 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Botswana 6.770 7.413 7.307 7.586 7.702 7.884 8.052 8.350Burkina Faso 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Burundi 1254.7 1313.3 1392.5 1404.9 1464.1 1505.3 1592.6 1567.8Cameroon 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Cape Verde 78.15 81.82 84.12 86.01 88.15 85.00 83.53 84.40Central African Rep. 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Chad 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Comoros 348.7 365.1 375.3 383.7 393.3 379.2 372.7 376.6Congo, Dem. Rep. of 921.8 910.3 919.7 922.3 919.1 915.9 917.1 918.3Congo, Republic of 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Côte d'Ivoire 464.8 487.0 500.4 511.5 524.2 505.6 497.1 502.2Djibouti 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7 177.7Egypt 5.961 5.991 6.035 6.043 6.080 6.124 6.688 6.948Equatorial Guinea 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Eritrea 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38 15.38Ethiopia 17.083 17.235 17.399 17.633 17.957 18.165 18.387 18.624Gabon 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Gambia, The 28.43 28.93 30.32 30.26 32.15 32.04 33.70 34.46Ghana 1.532 1.625 1.711 1.871 1.936 1.890 1.913 1.984Guinea 6841.0 6997.2 7162.8 7096.6 7175.9 7002.4 7008.8 7056.2Guinea-Bissau 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Kenya 93.2 93.7 84.1 84.1 84.3 85.6 86.7 84.6Lesotho 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954 9.491Liberia 72.48 71.94 73.34 74.81 73.64 72.27 ... ...Libya 1.214 1.237 1.253 1.263 1.272 1.259 1.270 1.287Madagascar 1983.4 2123.7 2185.8 2123.6 2248.7 2238.3 2223.2 2194.5Malawi 159.3 165.3 165.9 225.3 283.0 322.9 366.7 363.2Mali 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Mauritania 280.0 288.2 292.2 293.3 300.5 299.2 296.6 290.4Mauritius 28.29 29.14 29.19 29.67 30.70 30.90 30.76 31.05Morocco 8.001 8.310 8.493 8.645 8.819 8.566 8.447 8.519Mozambique 27.32 26.81 27.29 27.80 28.42 29.58 30.23 30.13Namibia 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954 9.491Niger 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Nigeria 154.3 160.3 159.2 159.4 159.3 157.3 157.6 158.8Rwanda 600.1 602.1 605.4 608.5 614.8 628.3 633.2 641.2São Tomé & Príncipe 17364.6 18174.5 18702.6 19094.9 19583.2 18893.0 18548.8 18752.4Senegal 464.92 486.74 500.41 511.65 524.40 505.65 496.88 502.07Seychelles 12.26 12.91 13.95 14.23 13.57 13.10 12.51 11.80Sierra Leone 4385.5 4404.0 4362.7 4344.6 4337.1 4334.5 4324.2 4324.7South Africa 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954 9.491Sudan 2.361 2.361 2.361 2.462 3.887 3.895 3.908 ...Swaziland 7.145 8.099 7.757 8.126 8.260 8.690 8.954 9.491Tanzania 1609.3 1649.0 1589.1 1584.7 1579.4 1578.8 1591.3 1571.2Togo 464.9 486.7 500.4 511.7 524.4 505.6 496.9 502.1Tunisia 1.390 1.451 1.508 1.568 1.602 1.571 1.566 1.626Uganda 2719.1 2609.1 2406.9 2489.9 2495.1 2626.3 2657.6 2584.9Zambia 4.890 5.032 5.209 5.234 4.947 5.200 5.339 5.341Zimbabwe 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4 322.4

Chief Economist Complex, ECON

20122011 2013


Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators

Table 12: International reserves (Billions of US$) as at end of period


Table 12 : International reserves (Billions of US$) as at end of period

2013

Country Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 *

Algeria 176.2 176.6 182.8 187.1 187.0 188.9 191.3 190.4Angola 24.06 25.57 26.48 27.39 30.73 30.43 33.41 34.99Benin 1.187 1.077 0.887 1.026 0.912 0.800 0.713 0.677Botswana 8.578 8.301 8.082 8.066 7.831 7.794 7.628 7.531Burkina Faso 1.026 0.923 0.957 0.726 0.815 0.908 1.025 0.685Burundi 0.342 0.303 0.294 0.289 0.273 0.283 0.307 0.293Cameroon 3.488 3.239 3.199 3.095 3.059 3.033 3.381 ...Cape Verde 0.317 0.309 0.339 0.344 0.358 0.377 0.376 0.400Central African Republic 0.199 0.165 0.155 0.169 0.146 0.166 0.158 ...Chad 0.882 0.900 0.951 0.866 0.872 0.952 1.156 ...Comoros 0.151 0.146 0.155 0.150 0.157 0.172 0.194 0.164Congo, Dem. Rep. 1.402 1.260 1.268 1.351 1.406 1.508 1.633 1.708Congo, Rep. 5.716 5.859 5.641 5.565 5.657 5.848 5.550 ...Côte d'Ivoire 4.049 4.204 4.316 4.270 3.890 3.695 3.928 4.147Djibouti 0.249 0.224 0.244 0.253 0.258 0.253 0.249 0.446Egypt 23.51 20.96 14.92 11.82 12.15 11.66 11.63 10.04Equatorial Guinea 3.630 2.557 3.054 4.079 3.066 4.287 4.397 ...Eritrea 0.117 0.116 0.115 ... ... ... ... ...Gabon 2.503 2.282 2.157 2.058 2.198 2.295 2.352 ...Gambia, The 0.221 0.195 0.223 0.217 0.233 0.223 0.236 0.225Ghana 4.928 4.757 5.483 4.741 4.175 4.193 5.368 5.119Guinea 0.117 0.112 0.103 0.104 ... ... ... ...Guinea-Bissau 0.250 0.220 0.220 0.182 0.211 0.183 0.165 0.164Kenya 4.173 4.007 4.264 4.697 5.309 5.495 5.711 5.538Liberia 0.499 0.493 0.513 0.520 0.495 0.481 0.500 ...Libya 107.2 104.1 104.8 110.0 110.5 115.4 118.4 120.4Madagascar 1.254 1.236 1.279 1.295 1.176 1.150 1.191 1.117Malawi 0.227 0.270 0.197 0.148 0.093 0.186 0.223 0.194Mali 1.454 1.367 1.379 1.289 1.113 1.181 1.341 1.266Mauritania 0.411 0.420 0.485 0.509 0.569 0.821 0.949 ...Mauritius 2.698 2.559 2.583 2.590 2.601 2.712 2.837 2.949Morocco 22.13 20.57 19.53 18.42 15.98 15.63 16.36 15.85Mozambique 2.352 2.371 2.469 2.315 2.473 2.867 2.770 2.429Namibia 1.821 1.432 1.787 1.604 1.734 1.675 1.746 1.897Niger 0.722 0.618 0.673 0.712 0.796 0.897 1.015 0.911Nigeria 34.57 34.36 35.21 37.79 37.95 43.22 46.41 ...Rwanda 0.748 0.825 1.050 0.900 0.860 ... 0.848 0.698Sao Tome and Principe 0.048 0.055 0.051 0.053 0.036 0.041 0.052 0.050Senegal 2.552 2.454 1.946 2.090 1.856 1.994 2.082 1.866Seychelles 0.296 0.279 0.290 0.304 0.305 0.311 0.319 ...Sierra Leone 0.416 0.420 0.439 0.453 0.442 0.445 0.478 0.469South Africa 43.98 43.21 42.60 43.98 42.92 43.85 44.00 43.57Sudan 2.415 0.667 0.193 0.194 0.190 0.193 0.193 ...Swaziland 0.639 0.573 0.601 0.580 0.614 0.670 0.741 0.753Tanzania 3.498 3.471 3.726 3.534 3.788 4.045 4.053 4.393Togo 0.865 0.759 0.774 0.658 0.548 0.534 0.442 0.461Tunisia 7.712 7.998 7.454 7.084 6.359 6.494 8.357 7.279Uganda 2.273 2.479 2.617 2.741 2.859 3.098 3.167 3.209Zambia 2.588 2.556 2.324 2.319 2.440 3.319 3.042 2.608

Zimbabwe 0.791 0.686 0.659 0.624 0.573 0.567 0.574 0.499* provisional

Chief Economist Complex, ECON

2011 2012


Data sources and descriptions

� Data sources and descriptions


Data Sources

Composite leading Indicators (CLI) for advanced and emerging economies OECD

OECD

Industrial output in emerging economies / FDI inflows toward Africa

OECD

Description and technical observations

Harmonized Unemployment Rate in United States and eurozone(monthly data, % of active population)

Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Advanced Economies (Quarterly data seasonally adjusted (sa), growth rate compared to the previous quarter)

OECDConsumer Prices all Items for Advanced Economies (monthly data, percentage change on the same period of the previous year)

World Bank / UNCTAD

OECD

AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and

IMF

Bloomberg

Africa: GDP growth for selected countries (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

Exchange rates in US$ for the Euro, the Yen and the YuanMonthly average

Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100) for US, Japan, Europe and Shangai

Business Confidence Index for South Africa

National Stock Exchanges


IMF

IMF, IFS Database

AfDB Statistics Department, Central Banks and IMF

World Bank and national sources

IMF, IFS Database


IMF

AfDB Statistics Department and OPEC

OPEC

OECD / WTO

BER South Africa / SARB

National Statistics Institute / Central Bank of Tunisia / IMF

National sources

Manufacturing Industrial Production for selected countries (monthly or quarterly data sa, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

National Statistics Institues

Graph

2

11

5

4

6

3

7

8

10

9

Cover page

1

21 - 22 - 23 Inflation on consumer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

World volume imports of goods / Exports and imports values in current US dollar for selected African countries (quarterly data, current values, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

15 - 16 - 17

Crude Oil Production for African member countries of OPEC (monthly data; 1 000 barrel / day)

North Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

Africa: GDP growth for selected countries (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year)

12

Focus Major economic statistics of Tunisia (GDP growth / Manufacturing & mining output /Trade flows / Balance of payments Statistics / Inflation / Nominal exchange rate)

Oil prices (WTI and Brent, US$ per barrel) / Coffee prices (US$ per mt)

18

19 - 20

Commodity prices(monthly indexes, 100=2005)

Tourism statistics : tourist arrivals

13 -14

26 & 28

25 & 27 Exchange rates for Kenya and South Africa (national currency per US$, monthly average rates)

Total reserves: Egypt, South Africa and Algeria (billions of US$)

Stock market indexes for for Nigeria, WAEMU and South Africa (end of period quotes, 100=2005)

24


Data sources and descriptions � Data sources and descriptions


Table PageData Sources

7

4

4

12

2

4 7

1

AfDB Statistics Department and national statistical agencies

World Bank

OECD, EUROSTAT

WTO

OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China and Federal State Statistics Service of Russia

3 Bloomberg, OECD 4

World Bank and National sources

National Statistics sources and international databases

10

1911

12 World Bank 20

18

5

14

6 World Bank and national sources 12

8 National sources, World Bank and IMF 16

9 National Statistics sources and IMF 18

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