Afghanistan.valetsky.english

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Sir, I am sending in attachment rough( for sorry) translate of my story Strategija andtactics of Army of the USA in war in Afghanistan and its influence on Central Asia.This story has issued on http://www.soldatru.ru/read.php?id=138

I would be glad if this story will be issued by you in co-author with some of you

Regards OlegMy cell in Bosnia is +387 65 413651

Oleg ValetskyStrategija and tactics of Army of the USA in war in Afghanistan and its influence on

Central AsiaModern war in Afghanistan is the important event for all world not only because

Afghanistan became a point of the appendix of efforts of all block of NATO but alsobecause it directly infringes on interests of region closely connected with Russia -Central Asia (and consequently, and interests of Russia). To understand, how this war

can affect position in the world, it is necessary to estimate soberly first of allopportunities which the parties participating in it have. Certainly, main and definingforce in this war is the American army, doctrines and which opportunities are analysed

by me in the book prepared for printing " the New weapon and new strategy ". Duringwars in Yugoslavia and Iraq the American military command has tested the newdoctrine of conducting operations on all territory of the enemy, and first of all on thecenters supervising its manufacture, the population, transport. The given concept has

been developed by John Vordenom (John Warden) and taken on arms by the Supremecommand of the American army. Also by development of the given doctrine JohnBoyd's theories (John Boyd) about actions on an advancing of the opponent in thefield of acceptance and carrying out by it during a life of decisions that issimultaneously interfaced to actions on destruction of a circuit of command of theopponent and on the general scheduled demoralization of the enemy were used.Creation of new systems of the operated weapon has increased opportunities of

NATO. It has allowed groups in some person or even to singles to amaze anypurposes on all rear of the enemy. Not casually in military-political circles of the USAnot time were put forward offers on reduction of a land forces and formation of asmall contingent, sufficient for perebroski by air in any point of the world. As a matterof fact, such contingent would be motorizirovannoj the infantry equippedlegkobronirovannoj by technics. Its main problem would consist in maintenance ofeffective application of systems of the operated weapon in cooperation with local

allies. Development of the borrowed territories there will be messages the aeromobilearmies equipped legkobronirovannoj by technics and leaning fire power of-rocket and aviation systems of the weapon. Naturally, similaroffers caused also negative responses in the environment of the American Supremecommand, however the success of operation in Yugoslavia has served as convincingargument for vysheupomjanutoj to reorganization of armed forces of the USA andtheir allies. Acknowledgement of it became reduction of parts of a land forces of thecountries - members of the NATO, at all not connected with absence of money for themaintenance of army. New samples of the cassette and operated weapon applied asaircraft so artillery and rocket complexes, have absolutely changed a course ofmilitary actions. As to army of the USA, it also undergoes the serious changes caused

by its reduction, and also refusal from heavy bronetehniki (including alreadydeveloped SAU Crusader), perebroska which demands too many forces and means.
http://www.soldatru.ru/read.php?id=138http://www.soldatru.ru/read.php?id=138


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Already during war in Iraq command of the American army has created brigadesunder the name "striker" (shock), equipped wheel bronetehnikoj - armored troop-carrier LAV-25, and the machines of fighting and rear support created on its base.Actually they became a ground equivalent of sea infantry, air-landing and air-assault

parts of the American army.

Alongside with the last shock brigades were ready to fast perebroske in any point ofthe world. Thus it is important, that ognevaja support of "forwarding" forces was

based on application of the operated and cassette weapon. The American militarycommand has been so assured of the superiority that has considered possible to putthis theory into practice. In particular, it concerns the theory " wars in three quarters ",the sea infantry developed by was ordering case general Charles Krulakom.According to it at that time while in one quarter sea infantrymen conduct operations,in the second they can conduct "zachistku" territories, and in the third to distribute thehumanitarian help. Similar strategy has been issued in June, 2001 in strategic doctrineFM1 " The Army ", and also in the charter of operations FM-5 "Operations".

Practically given strategy has been focused on creation of the small armed forcesequipped by modern systems of the operated weapon, and also means of investigationand radio-electronic struggle. These forces could conduct independently without long

preparation operations in any point of a planet by means of local allies. Thus themachinery of state would not spend traditional measures on translation of ability tolive of the countries into the martial law. However already in Iraq it was found out,that at war against "ideological" Islamic the guerrilla-mojaheds installation ondisorganization of an enemy sheaf " Supervision - orientation - the decision - action "John Boyd simply does not work by virtue of absence for the opponent of thecommand centers traditional for the civilized world. It is indicative, that there aremore than problems the American armies had in struggle against the local Islamicguerrillas-mojaheds, managed to choose more rational method of struggle, thanfrontal attacks. Afghanistan long time was a place rather quiet, and fights wereconducted here mainly by the field commanders who have supported new westernizedgovernment Hamida Karzaja.Using so powerful factor as Islamic fundamentalism at growing discontent of the

population with requisitions and robberies of field commanders, talibs have managedin 2005 sharply to make active actions. Americans were not able to supervise the

processes occuring inside of the Afghani society and by that have broken owndoctrine, having broken off a sheaf " supervision - orientation - the decision - action ".It has enabled talibs to finish free with the opponents inside of the Afghani society.

The last was the purpose and mojaheds in Iraq, and struggle against foreignoccupation became only a pretext for simplification "zachistok" opponents of Islamicrevolution who in this case could be killed any more as "devout" and as traitors of anislam and helpers of invaders. It is quite coordinated with the Islamic lawscondemning those who breaks the law in the Islamic state, but those justifying murderwho, breaking laws of an islam service "incorrect", itself it appears the turncoat. As amatter of fact, any revolution is directed not against enemies external, and againstenemies internal. That of mojaheds destruction of the opponents in own environmentmore interested, and to them as well as possible send slogans of struggle withinostranoj okkupatsiii, accessible and clear all. As strano, the American command hasnot considered so important factor. Practically Americans had no thought over

strategy for struggle against guerrillas neither in Iraq, nor in Afghanistan


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At all not having strategy, command ISAF could achieve the best results, usingchecked up tactics of creation of blockhouses and paying attention to preparation ofnew efficient divisions of special troops of the Afghani army and active actions onsearch and destruction of forces of talibs and "al-". However in practicecommanders of various contingents much division preferred to sit out on bases or to

spend operations obviously senseless, to avoid losses in the numbers. Forces of theAmerican special troops, not having support from local and rather raznosherstnojarmies Karzaja, were not able to fix successes of the aircraft, and finally began to getin ambushes. In 2005 the special troops of the American Naval Forces have lost 16fighters was onboard helicopter MH-47, brought down by talibs by means of PZRKon border with Pakistan. PZRK were bought by representatives "al-" - quiteoften free - in the same Yugoslavia (for example, to Sarajevo), or in the next Pakistanat the price of 2-3 thousand dollars for a rocket and 5-10 thousand for a complex. Asthe last are made not only in the USA, the Great Britain, Sweden, France, Russia, butalso in China, Iran, Egypt hardly it is possible to prevent occurrence of this weapon intalibs in the increasing quantity. For such highland as Afghanistan, it means, that

forces ISAF will lose the mobility provided helicopters - that roads of Afghanistanhardly can favour to similar mobility in the foreseeable future. Owing to creation ofnetwork "al-" talibs had an opportunity to receive the new staff of the preparedexperts not only from Islamic, but also the European countries, and also from theformer USSR.

In 2005 the death-roll in attacks of talibs has increased up to 1500 thousand person,and about hundred of them military men ISAF made. Growth of a death-roll in theranks of ISAF is officially recognized on a site http: // www.icasualties.org/oef/,namely: in 2003 - 57 victims, in 2004 - 58 victims, in 2005 - 130 victims, and in 2006already 172 victims. Growth of number of losses in a multinational contingent of

NATO also will lower mobility of armies ISAF as their commanders are more anxiousby reaction to growth of losses in staffs of their own armies, rather than that this orthat operation is finished neuspeshno. That talibs finally will receive long-awaitedfreedom of hands and, having finished with the enemies in pushtunskoj to theenvironment of Afghanistan, will continue the business in the next Pakistan. Pakistan

became the first victim of new talib revolt as a coalition of Islamic parties from thevery beginning of war in Afghanistan, has supported talibs, as well as a part ofofficers of army and special services. At the same time in the real policy the fact of

possible creeping Islamic revolution in the next region of Central Asia isunderestimated. The institute of the analysis of a world policy of the USA has

published analytical research " Strategic paradigms - 2025 " in which, in particular, itis spoken: " By 2025 probability of that Central Asia can turn to similarity of modernAfghanistan, will be rather real. The moderate states can disappear in general from acard of this region ". This region on the potential to the little concedes to Pakistan. Itsterritory makes over 3 million square kilometers, and the population is totaled 59,4million by person (according to " the World directory of CIA " for 2005) . From themin Kazakhstan lives 15,2 million; in Kyrgyzstan - 5,1 million; in Tajikistan - 7,2million; in Turkmenii - 5 million; in Uzbekistan - 26,9 million person. The totalinternal product has made 232,4 billion dollars in 2005; gross national product percapita makes approximately 3 900 dollars. Gross national product is distributed asfollows: Kazakhstan - 132,7 billion dollars; Kyrgyzstan - 9,3 billion dollars; Tajikistan

- 8,8 billion dollars; Turkmenija - 29,4 billion dollars; Uzbekistan - 52,2 billiondollars. The bridge connecting Afghanistan with this region, nationalities of the north


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of Afghanistan - Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Turkmens are. The most important role - by virtueof the large number in Afghanistan - is played by Tadjiks. The last in days of theUSSR in the majority have taken so-called " Islamic opposition ", and Ahmad-checkMasud was just the Tadjik. The next Tajikistan for the Tadjik mojaheds always was aultimate goal, and the country the area 141 thousand square kilometers which half of

territory is borrowed with mountains in height of more 3 thousand meters, critical forflights of helicopters, shows itself convenient enough and habitual theatre ofoperations for groups of mojaheds from the next Afghanistan. Offensive campaign ofIslamic opposition in April, 1995 against the Russian boundary armies was atouchstone, and civil war gone from 1992 in Tajikistan has been stopped only by theconsent Islamic the oppositions (Said Abdulla Nuri), wishing to keep status quo.Certainly, in Tajikistan till now are the Russian armies (more precisely, 201 motor-shooting division), but the majority its soldier just local Tadjiks, and its ability toconducting long operations is rather doubtful. In Tajikistan dictatorship of a clan ofRakhmonov reigns practically. As " the Independent newspaper " in number fromSeptember, 7th 2006 g. writes Moscow: " Rakhmonov is considered in the country the

guarantor of the world and stability as it in 1997 has fastened the signature theInterTadjik agreement on the world, put an end to the five years' civil war which hascarried away lives nearby 150 thousand the person. In other conditions amongRakhmonov's contenders there could be two potentially perspective figures. Howeverleader Dempartii of Tajikistan Mahmadruzi Iskandarov is condemned for 23 years ofimprisonment. And popular in people the ex-agency head under the control over drugsand was ordering presidential guards of Tajikistan Gafor Mirzoev has receivedrecently lifelong term ". Probably, such position suits Moscow, however similardictatorship questions in Tajikistan are not solved, and are only exhausted deep into,that can cause revolt of one of competing clans, for example from Kulyab or fromMountain Badahshana. As is known, in October, 2004, Tajikistan has incured the fullcontrol over protection of border, and Russia has declared in June, 2005, that ittransfers last boundary post on border to Tadjiks, having kept only group of advisers.Since then more and more than drugs it is transported through Tajikistan. Extent of theTadjik border with Afghanistan makes 1,344 km. To speak that it will be any obstaclefor the same talibs, to not have. The only thing for them an obstacle is that authorityabove the Tadjik community for the present in hands of commanders of former

Northern Alliance.Knowing, however, propensity of such commanders to various conflicts, no less thankorystoljubie, it is possible to assume them, that with growth financial opportunities"al-" last them can simply buy up, at the same time having promised it all

Tajikistan, that where it is more attractive than lorries with the humanitarian help ofAmerican agency USAID. During war of 2001 in Afghanistan forces Rabbanigenerated from Tadjiks living in the country, it is equal as the Afghani Uzbeks ofgeneral Dustuma (at support from Uzbekistan) were the main allies of Americans.Among allies of the USA also there were also "flat" Tadjiks of Herat and pushtunskietribes Nangarhara, Lagmana and Kunara, incorporated under command HadzhiKadyra, and as hazarejtsy and nuristantsy. However coming to power pushtunaKarzaja has displeased among Tadjiks about whom the commanders who have grownfrom war against the Soviet armies and then proSoviet authority in Kabul order.Uzbeks in Afghanistan were more loyal to then Kabul, and nowadays general Dustumone of the main support of new authority Karzaja. However just in the next

Uzbekistan there is the strongest and organized Islamic movement which hassupported in 2001 of talibs. Certainly, the president of Uzbekistan Karimov strongly


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enough keeps authority by means of forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs andspecial services. Thus of disappearance of political opponents in Uzbekistan a thinghabitual enough. The oppositional newspaper "Central Asia" wrote, that in the city ofShymkent (Southern Kazakhstan) disappearances of moslems - ethnic Uzbeks beganto occur, and lately is fixed not less than ten cases. That authorities of Kazakhstan

have given out to Uzbekistan group of refugees, also international pravozashchitnajathe organization " Hjuman Rajts Votch " on December, 3rd, 2005 informed. Forces ofsafety Karimova at threat of mass disorders quickly enough use the weapon thatevents in Andizhan when tens civil inhabitants have been killed or wounded on May,13th, 2005 have proved after the Uzbek armies have opened fire on protesters.At the same time according to some sources Karimov for last years though has liftedconsiderably a standard of living of military men, at the same time cannot providearmed forces of the state with new technics and the weapon. For example, same baseHanabad before arrival there Americans represented thrown, zarosshy an ice-holestrategic air station on which parking were plundered within after disintegration of theUSSR, izedennye corrosion planes. More or less the "alive" Soviet technics, got to

Uzbekistan at section of military property of the former great country, is collectedonly in several connections of constant alertness, in particular what were put forwardfrom Fergana and Namangan to Andizhan for suppression of the revolt which hashappened in 2004. Other - " hardly going scrap metal ". Meanwhile in Uzbekistanthere was the strongest and influential Islamic opposition in Central Asia which beforewar in Afghanistan was headed with Islamic movement of Uzbekistan (the leader -Dzhuma Namangani). As in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan there areextensive areas of compact residing of Uzbeks, Islamic opposition of Uzbekistan now

pererosla in regional force. Its force attacks of insurgents of Islamic movement ofUzbekistan on the Surkhan-Darya area in Uzbekistan and have shown the south ofKyrgyzstan in the 1999-2000 which have proved weak capacity of armies " new Asia". Then a little sot insurgents of this movement have intruded in Kyrgyzstan in July,1999 and have grasped some villages. With assistance of the Air Forces of Uzbekistanand Kazakhstan armed forces of Kyrgyzstan have superseded them in October, 1999.

Numerous insurgents of Islamic movement of Uzbekistan have again intruded inKyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in August, 2000. Though Uzbekistan has rendered theKirghiz armies military support, including from air, insurgents have receded only inOctober, 2000.Explosions in Tashkent in February, 1999 were one of early attributes of that thegovernment became vulnerable for terrorism. According to various messagesexplosions have destroyed from 16 up to 28 person and have wounded from 100 up to

351 persons. After explosions large-scale arrests of political dissidents and otherpersons as which observers do not consider as probable conspirators have been lead.According to a sketch "Central Asia" of Andrey Grozina, published in "Newsletter-analytical", " In the end 1999 - the beginning 2000 seemed, that the countries TSARhave taken lessons from the past " batkentskogo crisis ". Nevertheless for theKirghizia which has again taken up the basic weight of impact of terrorists, mountainwar has turned back all over again night, and then and day time fights on pass Turo.Terrorists have destroyed not only the Kirghiz elite -search group(six soldier insurgents killed sleeping, and hour have dumped in a precipice), but alsohave brought down two helicopters. The majority of the Kirghiz military men was lostin the first days of that the army did not have not enough means and opportunities to

borrow dominating heights earlier, than it was made by insurgents. On official data ofBishkek, 33 military men from August, 11th till September, 22nd, 2000 were lost, but


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many independent experts do not exclude, that real figures of losses it is more. And, atlast, to the end of October, 1999 (already after "vahhabity" send away from Zardaly)A.Akaev has cited new data: in area of the Kirghiz gorge Hadzha-Achkan where the

basic groups of the Uzbek opposition are concentrated, about 800 person is collected,and in next to the south of Kirghizia areas of Tajikistan in full alertness has

concentrated nearby 2 thousand insurgents.Same "arithmetics" has repeated and in 2000. Applications that " the situation is underthe full control of the country leaders and our militarians naturally, constantlysounded and the continuous communication with a place of armed conflict " isestablished. " Fights go on destruction, we come " (the application from August, 15th,2000), And the conflict, on official data, has settled itself in the end of September -insurgents without special work send away there, whence send) ". In the beginning ofwar in Afghanistan the president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, acting on local TV,has assured Washington that the country is ready to give the air space for flight of theAmerican Air Forces. In air station under Karshi groups American kommandos

prepared, and planes of military-transport aircraft of the USA therefrom operated. On

October, 5th, 2001 to Tashkent there has on a visit arrived Minister of Defence of theUSA Donald Ramsfeld. I.Karimova and D.Ramsfeld's negotiations passed behind theclosed doors, but by the present moment Uzbekistan has already provided base foroperations of the USA to Karshi- and base for German parts in Termez (inthe beginning of 2006 German armies as inform, totaled approximately 300 person),and a corridor to Afghanistan through bridge " Friendship " in Termez. On October,7th, 2001 the USA have put the first bombing attacks across Afghanistan (Kabul,Kandahar, Herat, Jelalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, SHindand and air base Bagram). At thistime on the -Uzbek border talibs have concentrated more than 8 thousandfighters, to a left bank of Amu Darya - under command Dzhumy Namangani. Armedforces of Uzbekistan under I.Karimova's order have been resulted in a condition ofalertness number one, and on October, 8th southern group of armies of Kyrgyzstan,deployed on the -Tadjik border, is resulted in a condition of alertness. Even inKazakhstan in the raised degree of battle readiness forces and the means which are

being on fighting watch in system of air defence of the country have been resulted.Occupation of Afghanistan by forces of the USA and NATO has caused time calm,

but already from March, 28th till April, 1st, 2004 in Uzbekistan explosions and armedattacks which as inform, have destroyed 47 person have been lead. The responsibilityfor violence was incured unknown till now by Islamic Group of Jihad of Uzbekistan(Jama'at al-Islami, separate part IMU). Director of CIA Gess has declared Malt liquorin Senatorial Committee on affairs of armed forces on March, 17th, 2005, that group

IJG " has turned to more dangerous threat to interests of the USA and to localauthorities ". On May, 25th, 2005 the State department has defined it as " globalterrorist group ". On June, 1st, 2005 the Secutiry council of the United Nations hasadded this group in the list of terrorist groups. As a matter of fact, business not inactions of one group, and that Uzbekistan with its low standard of life represents itselfeasy enough purpose for talibs and if they nowadays could win support of the most

part of a society in Afghanistan where the material well-being all the same has grownas, however, and efficiency of political management in amazed Uzbekistan it it willmake poverty and corruption even easier. " A book review " in clause " the Tashkentcaptive " in number from September, 4th, 2006 tells on the pages about " histories of

parting with illusions "." Krejg Mjurrej not very much represented, in what gets

involved, when per 2002 sent the ambassador of the United Kingdom to Uzbekistan.Firstly it was derzok. Derzok even in relation to traditions of the fatherland. Was


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indignant with archaic rules according to which the ambassador before sending ondestination should be to the queen, by all means dressed in a dress coat. In fact it wentto the country which as it thought, has renounced the feudal past and buildsdemocracy, storing fidelity to Americans and Englishmen - to allies on an antiterroristcoalition. However illusions have quickly dissipated. Mjurrej has seen a picture,

worthy film-anti-Utopia.

It has got in the classical Asian despotism based on a slave labour and severesuppression of any opposition. Americans winked at all this. The main thing for themwas to finish as soon as possible construction of an air base, therefore they constantlyextolled Karimova. The Uzbek special services widely apply tortures, and CIA thesecases are known. Besides, Americans willingly use the data received by the Uzbekcolleagues ". After events in Andizhan president Karimov has entered the conflict tothe USA, has demanded on July, 29th, 2005 closing of base of Americans in Karshi- and has constrained the word: Americans have left this base on November,21st, 2005 In February, 2006 the government of Uzbekistan threatened to stop

German operations in Termez because armies of the USA were thrown by transitthrough this position. Moscow " the Independent newspaper " on September, 8th,2006 wrote, that in Uzbekistan close the foreign nongovernmental organizations. "Authorities of Uzbekistan rigidly spend a line on replacement from the country of theforeign nongovernmental organizations. At the same time it is erroneous to consider,that Karimov became after that the proRussian politician. Its special services sponsorthe Russian official representatives, not less rigidly, than western. Main ally Karimova- own special services, and just that the USA have demanded investigation of actionsof these special services in Andizhan in 2005, and has caused so sharp reaction.(though then the government has resolved carrying out of the internationalinvestigation). Nevertheless Uzbekistan continues to remain the American ally asCentral Asia approves in work ": regional development and value for interests of theUSA " Jim Nikol from a department of the international attitudes, defenses and tradeof research service of the Congress of the USA: " The strengthened interest of theCongress to Central Asia has been reflected in acceptance of the formulation of thelaw of " the Silk way " to the end of 1999 (P.L. 106-113) supporting the big attentionof policy of the USA to region, and also the help at the resolution of conflicts,humanitarian problems, assistance in economic development, transport (including

pipelines for energy carriers), communications, the help in the boundary control, overdevelopment of democracy and creation of civil societies over the South-Caucasianand central-Asian states. Assignments for foreign operations in 2006 financial to year

have been approved on November, 14th, 2005 (H.R. 3057; P.L. 109-102). Members ofconciliation committee (H.Rept. 109-265), have requested for the help to Kazakhstanaccording to the Law on support of freedom of 25 million dollars for Kyrgyzstan, 24million dollars for Tajikistan, 5 million dollars for Turkmenii, and 20 million dollarsfor Uzbekistan. The law causes volume of the help to the governments of Kazakhstanand Uzbekistan depending on promotion of democracy and respect for human rightsin their countries ". In May, 2005 State secretary Kondoliza Rajs has informed theCongress, that Kazakhstan could not improve considerably a state of affairs in sphereof human rights, but it has removed restrictions to the aid of Kazakhstan from reasonsof national safety. In 2005 financial year the State secretary has not reported on theCongress that Uzbekistan has reached significant progress in respect for human rights.

As a result Section 578 about restrictions of the help has remained for it in force.


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General Myers criticized reduction of programs of the help to Uzbekistan as "short-sighted" and not "constructive", the policy reducing military influence of the USA.

Russia in this case has closer political communications with the states of Central Asia.In 1996 Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have signed " the Shanghai

agreement " with China which has defined inviolability and essential demilitarizationof mutual borders. In 1997 they have signed the subsequent agreement,demilitarizirujushchee former -Chinese border in the extent of 4 300 miles.China used this agreement to put pressure upon the central-Asian states with the

purpose to keep their ethnic minority - Uigurs - from support of separatism inprovince Hinjang of China, and to force them ekstragirovat Uigurs run of China. TheShanghai organization on cooperation (SHOS) has been created in 2001, whenUzbekistan and the Shanghai five - China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan andTajikistan - have decided to expand the agreement from 1996 to stabilize a situationon the borders and together to struggle with terrorism, extremism, separatism anddrug-dealing. Members of special design bureau have agreed to form in 2001 the

central-Asian forces of fast reaction with headquarters in Kyrgyzstan which most partis formed with armies of Russia in Tajikistan. Members of the Commonwealth ofIndependent States in 2001 have approved also creation of the Antiterrorist Center(ATTS) in Moscow with branch in Kyrgyzstan, allowing Russia to influence gatheringrazveddannyh in region. In 2001 Uzbekistan has joined group SHOS, and in 2003Antiterrorist Center SHOS there has been formed. Nikolay Bordyuzha, becoming in2002 secretary general ODKB, has undertaken greater efforts that 4-th clause has notremained the declaration. Advice of chapters of the states and Ministers of Defence ofthe countries-participants have consistently made corresponding decisions, and it hasfinished them to a practical embodiment.At the Organization of the Contract about collective safety (ODKB) controls have

been created by armed forces of the countries-participants: command, a staff,divisions KSBR, constantly operating working bodies ODKB - the Incorporated staffand Secretary ODKB. In Dushanbe session of Advice of collective safety hasaccepted on April, 28th, 2003 a package of the major documents connected with

becoming ODKB as the international regional organization. Naturally, that actions ofRussia cause counteraction of the USA though it is obvious, that the reasons for it notgeopolitic interests, and more likely economic interests of the American companies inregion, that however, works and for the Russian policy. Moscow " the Military-industrial courier " in number from September, 13th, 2005 opens a problem of adepartment of state of the USA in the Central Asia - to weaken influence SHOS and

ODKB. " Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmeniju the steadfastcontrol "from" looking for region " waits " Mr. Richard Bauchera - the assistant to thestate secretary of the USA on affairs of Southern and Central Asia. To "leisure"reporters some data from lead in the commissions of the senate under the internationalattitudes of hearings with participation of mister R.Bauchera became known. What itfor data? It appears, priorities of the American policy in this region of the world, and,hence, R.Bauchera are creation of steady communications of the states "supervised"

by it with the countries of Southern Asia; otryv them from integration processes withRussia and China; easing of influence of the Shanghai organization on cooperation(SHOS) and the Organizations of the Contract about collective safety (ODKB) ".

At the same time real power levers which could affect a policy in region neither atRussia, nor at the USA are not present. Though the help of the USA in sphere of


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safety has been strengthened after September, 11th, 2001, its share volume has a littledecreased, especially in 2004-2005- fiscal years after the help to Uzbekistan (see

below) has been cut down. For assistance of safety and realization of police functionsit has been allocated 187,55 million dollars in 2002 financial year (31 % of all help ofEurasia), 101,5 million dollars (33 %) in 2003 financial year, 132,5 million dollars

(11,2 %) in 2004 financial year, and 148,5 million dollars in 2005 financial year (11,3%). According to one of reports for 2005, the United States have paid 28 milliondollars in the form of rent payments and payment for landings and rises in Manase:114 million dollars for fuel and 17 million dollars to the Kirghiz contractors. Theresponsibility for military intervention of the USA to Central Asia bears since 1999the Central command of the USA (USCENTCOM). It cooperates with the Europeancommand (USEUCOM) in the program of protection of Caspian sea (Caspian [Sea]Guard program), begun in 2003. This program assumes expansion and coordination ofthe help in sphere of the safety, rendered by agencies of the USA for an establishment" the integrated mode of protection of air and sea space and the boundary control " forAzerbaijan and Kazakhstan. All the central-Asian states, except for Tajikistan, have

joined Partnership for the sake of the world (PFP) NATO to the middle of 1994(Tajikistan has joined in 2002). The central-Asian armies participated in periodicdoctrines of partnership PFP (or type "PFP"), spent in the United States since 1995.Armies of the USA participated in doctrines in Central Asia since 1997 (participationof Uzbekistan in partnership PFP has been temporarily suspended after events inAndizhan). In June, 2004 at the summit of NATO it is let out by the communique inwhich the special attention of the Union to the countries of Southern Caucasus andCentral Asia is noted.

Nevertheless, at present all this only words, and vrjad 15 thousand military men ofNATO in Afghanistan can really affect a possible aggravation of a situation in CentralAsia in case of recurrence of the script of 1999-2000. As to Russia a question, howmany armies Russia can enter into this region, it is combined enough, but, consideringextent of borders of Russia on the given direction, it will demand a significant lot ofarmies, rather than in the Chechen Republic in 1999 As to the last doctrines"Boundary" from Russia in doctrines " the tactical group " of structure KSBR, amouth of 77-th brigade of sea infantry of the Caspian flotilla took part only, a part offighting aircraft, 5 ships of the Caspian flotilla, over 500 military men (mainly urgentservice), and from divisions of the -Ural military district - operativegroup; total nearby 1 thousand soldier, officers and generals. From Kazakhstan the

battalion of sea infantry, a battalion of the diverse ships of a brigade of a coast guard,

division of aeromobile forces, a grouping of front army aircraft, a part of rear andtechnical maintenance, operative group took part; only 1400 military men. FromKyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - on one motor-shooting platoon, operative groups; only100 soldier and officers. From Uzbekistan - military observers. Thus, it is forcesrather modest. The USA at present in a condition to throw in the given region sometens thousand military men, however in case of the beginning of war with IranAmericans are unable carry out military intervention no matter where still. Besidesthe strategy of the USA described above assumes presence allied it of forces on localtheatre of operations.

At present the potential opponent - talibs - possess modest opportunities concerning

Central Asia. At the same time it is impossible to dismiss opportunities of Islamicrevolution in Pakistan, that to equivalently regional accident. However, not smaller


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accident would be caused with struggle of local clans in Uzbekistan and Tajikistanwhich the Islamic opposition could use. In this case the region of Central Asia willappear defenceless, and not only armies of NATO should recede on base inKyrgyzstan, but already Russia should throw armies to Kazakhstan according tointerstate obligations as defensibility of Kazakhstan with disintegration of the USSR

and outflow of Russian-speaking experts has fallen to the order. At the same time atRussia in this case an output does not remain, as it is more rational to establish linesof defense on borders of Kazakhstan, rather than the Orenburg area. As is known,Kazakhstan possesses the one fourth part of world reserves of uranium. Kazakhstanand Uzbekistan one of the main world manufacturers low obogashchennogo uranium.In territory of Kazakhstan, in Aktau, the fast nuclear reactor which was unique in theworld nuclear water-desalinating installation (the world's only nuclear desalinizationfacility) is located. Closed in 1999, it had almost 300 metric tons of the uranium and

plutonium fulfilled fuel in special stores (from which three tons are suitable formanufacturing the weapon). Besides the nuclear weapon in Kazakhstan, inKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan there are active research reactors,

uranium mines, mills for nuclear materials and dumps of nuclear waste. Many ofthese objects as inform, are badly protected from larceny. Besides during the Soviet

period Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan had in the territory the chemical and biologicalweapon (HBO).

In 1997 and 1999 the American-Kazakhstan agreements on a conclusion fromoperation of reactor Aktau have been signed. The help within the limits of theagreement on reduction of mutual threat (SVU) was used for simplification oftransportation 11 uranium in fuel cores from Uzbekistan to Russia in2004. Hardly someone in senses will agree on an establishment of authority of Islamicfundamentalists in these countries. The question of oil and gas for hardly the sameTurkmenija where mosques of the citation from the Koran are bound with statementsfrom the book "Ruhnama" Turkmenbashi and where imams tell to people about whathappiness to have such head as Niyazov, sent by the Allah as a gift and rescue for theTurkmen, seems to the world oil-and-gas companies the reliable guarantor of safety inregion is not less important. Importance of the same Turkmenistan in the given area isknown. It is how much known, the Russian, British, American companies closelyenough cooperate in the various organizations (for example " Oil club "), and create

joint projects (for example, "Rosneft" and " British Petroleum ", LUKOJL and"Canoco"). Already nowadays position in Central Asia causes at of some their headsalarm.

So, Moscow "Kommersant" on September, 6th, 2006 in clause "Gazprom" hassurrendered Turkmenii " makes comments on the consent of " Gazprom " within threeyears to buy at Turkmenii 162 billion cubic metre of natural gas on 100 US dollars forone thousand cubic metre. " As a result the monopoly will pay for Turkmen gas on $6

billion more, than gathered. However thus "Gazprom" till 2010 will supervise allexport of gas Turkmenii to the Europe. And Ukraine, cost of gas will pay for the pricecompromise for which, by estimations of branch experts, since October will grow upto $140 for one thousand cubic metre. However Turkmenistan can become the maincompetitor of "Gazprom" in the new markets, and first of all on Chinese. As is known,

in March of this year heads of "Gazprom" and the Chinese national oil-and-gascompany (CNPC) have signed the Report on deliveries of natural gas from Russia in


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the Peoples Republic of China. In the document the basic arrangements on terms,volumes, routes of deliveries of gas and principles of definition of the formula of the

price are fixed. Thus there are two routes: the western ("Altai") and east. The first willrealize the western route which means deliveries of gas from deposits of WesternSiberia, and then east - with deliveries from Eastern Siberia. On each of channels it is

supposed to deliver 30-40 billion cubic metre of gas a year. After this in AprilTurkmenbashi has signed with China the agreement on deliveries of gas for the periodof 30 years on 30 billion cubic metre a year ". According to the Ministry of power ofthe USA, the Caspian region develops as an essential source of oil and gas for theworld markets. In the given region such companies, as "Chevron" (USA), "Exxon"(USA), "Pennzoil" (USA), "Amaco" (USA), " British Petroleum " (Great Britain),"Ramco" (Great Britain), TPAO (Turkey) work. Under the statement of the Ministryof power of the USA Kazakhstan possesses the greatest proved oil stocks in theCaspian region in volume of 9-29 billion barrels, and has 65 billion cubic foots ofnatural gas.Oil export of Kazakhstan now makes approximately 1,3 million barrels a day. Some

power companies of the USA and other private foreign investors have beendiscouraged last months in connection with more severe constraints of thegovernment, taxes, and penalties. Turkmenija, according to the Ministry of power,

possesses 101 billion cubic foots of the proved stocks of gas, and is one of its largestowners in the world (report CRS RS21190 " the Caspian oil and gas: manufacture and

prospects ", the author - Bernard A. Gelb). In December, 1997 Turkmenija has openedthe first pipeline from Central Asia in an external world outside of Russia, to Iran thathas enabled as Turkmenii, and to Iran to bypass the western competitors. The projectof creation of one more gas main from Turkmenii to Pakistan also is long enoughdiscussed (over ten years). Niyazov has signed the 25-years agreement with Putin in2003 about delivery of Russia approximately 12 % from extraction of gas. Deliverywill increase in 2009, i.e. will capture the most part of made gas Turkmenii.

Nevertheless Turkmenija has suspended deliveries of gas to Russia in the beginning of2005, trying to receive higher price for gas, but has agreed on full payment by cashinstead of partial barter payments. In the beginning of 2006 Turkmenija has againoffered Russia higher prices for gas. In October, 2005 Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

basically have agreed to transport some part of the Kazakhstan oil through pipelineBTD, having given to Kazakhstan the export route which is not passing on territoryRussia. The first Kazakh exporting oil pipeline which is not crossing Russia, has beenfinished in the end of 2005, and has connected Atyrau at the Caspian coast ofKazakhstan to province Hinjang in China. Its productivity of 200 000 barrels in day.

Hardly someone in Moscow, London and Washington will agree to lose this market,and if necessary not only will independently organize protection nefte-and gas mainsforces of the private security companies, but also will demand from own governmentsof military contingents. But so important region draws attention and "al-"which not without justification sees in it an opportunity of reception of jumping-off

place for the future world revolution. To leaders "al-" in sequence and patienceto refuse it is impossible, and they are not deprived by foresight, if so much yearsresist as the USA, and to their allies (and the same Russia, de facto to the ally, but de

jure the opponent of the USA). " The independent newspaper " in number from

September, 5th, 2006 ascertains, that predictions of the prime minister of KyrgyzstanFelix Kulova come true: in the south of republic Islamic extremists become more


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active. " In the south of Kirghizia are taken measures of the raised safety inconnection with the acted information on possible attempts of breaks of the armedgroups of insurgents which go from Afghanistan through Tajikistan, Batkenskuju areaof Kirghizia in the Uzbek part of Fergana valley. According to Service of nationalsafety of Kirghizia, insurgents are citizens of Tajikistan, Kirghizia and Uzbekistan... "

Position in the south of Kirghizia is aggravated with strain of relations betweenaboriginals and Uzbeks who make in the Kirghiz part of Fergana valley about 40percent of the population. " Bloody collisions between Uzbeks and Kirghiz can repeat,- chairman of a community of Uzbeks dzhalal- of area of Kirghizia, thedeputy of parliament of republic Kadyrdzhan Batyrov approves. - After last year'srevolution in the country the vacuum of authority was formed. In conditions legal

bespredela the Kirghiz Uzbeks feel defenceless before "revolutionaries-" who have felt the impunity.

On September, 14th, 2006 izvestia"News" in clause under heading " Three presidentshave sentenced to death " approve: " Presidents of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and

Kirghizia threaten to destroy. The leader of Islamic movement of Uzbekistan I (GO)Tahir JUldashev has demanded from them to stop " prosecutions, terror and reprisalsagainst moslems ". Otherwise presidents are waited " with a penalty for crimes whichthey make ", is spoken in circulation JUldasheva, acted in mass-media of threerepublics by e-mail ". In the beginning of July the chief of service of national safety ofKyrgyzstan has declared, that at the Kirghiz authorities is that proof, that Uigurs haveestablished communications with Muslim radicals with the purpose of creation of anew terrorist grouping - " Islamic movement of Turkestan ". In this grouping, it hastold, people from Islamic movement of Uzbekistan have entered also (GO), whichmembers battled on the party of talibs and "al-" in Afghanistan, and from aradical grouping " Hizb ut- " which as was considered, usually does notsuppose violence. Time so dear organization as the Institute of the analysis of a world

policy of the USA, considers practically obvious has begun new wars in the givenregion till 2025, there are no reasons with this position to disagree.

It is necessary to consider and that the clan system of attitudes in Central Asiapromotes decomposition of machinery of state (what, it appears, to prove are notpresent necessities), and that and to decomposition of armed forces which become, onthe one hand, disabled, and with another (on behalf of first of all so-called "specialdivisions") dangerous to own state. The main cementing force of machinery of state inCentral Asia as in days of the USSR, and Russian empire was Russian population.

Having appeared without protection of Moscow, Russian began to lose positions in astate machinery, including in armed forces of the new states. Business was aggravatedwith outflow of the Russian-speaking population though the Moscow newspaper"Kommersant" in number from September, 11th, 2005 has published as a whole

pessimistic clause under the name " Great nepereselenie ". Regions are not ready toreception of compatriots, and compatriots to crossing, considers the edition. Thatability of the new Central Asian states to resistance constantly decreases, and it is

possible to take for granted, that without the foreign military help it will not bepossible to them protivopostojat aggression of forces "al-", capable to carry outas certificates of external aggression, and to arrange revolts and military coup d'etatsinside of these states.


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As to the USA even if the last will not get into adventure of war with Iran, hardly theywill send more than several "easy" brigades and one-two "heavy" divisions. Besideseven such contingent will require the big number of rear parts and divisions whichsupply will carry out or through territory of Transcaucasia, or, that while it isimprobable (but is possible), Russia. By virtue of significant territory of Central Asia

war will demand a plenty of armies which messages not only maneuverable will, butalso item actions. Hardly the American government will want, that the Americanarmies have received new front of operations besides Iraq. The USA will requireavailable allied forces which can be used at support of the American "mobile" partsand divisions for strengthening efficiency of actions of the Air Forces of the USA.The unique possible ally of the USA here is Russia, and without dependence from

political contradictions interests of the Russian business, will lead to the similarunion. Russia in case of the beginning of the "big" war in Central Asia withoutdeclaration of general mobilization hardly is able to collect the necessary quantity ofarmies, and it should resort to the practice of creation of forces of special purposechecked up in the was Yugoslavia, "irreguljarnyh" parts and divisions from the most

"reliable" part of local population (first of all, naturally, Russian). However even inthis case armies will not suffice, for so far as they did not suffice in 1999 for theChechen Republic it is not clear, whence they can be taken after numerous reductionsof armed forces. Certainly, there is a way of general mobilization and expansion of the

patriotic propaganda company to the country, however considering modern politicaltrends in Moscow there are doubts that in the Kremlin will agree to translate anational economy on military rails.

However here there is one more factor till now poorly considered, namely NATO. TheEuropean allies of the USA centuries conducted wars on the most various theatres ofoperations. It is not necessary to exaggerate value of that circumstance, that nowadaysthe European society is captured by ideology of pacifism. In a society of the USA wasnot less similar trends, but it has not prevented to appear to the American armies in2001 in Afghanistan, and in 2003 in Iraq, and to president Bush to win in 2004 thenext presidential elections. Besides the western inhabitant though does not love war,

but even less it wishes to remain without fuel on refuellings and without gas duringthe winter period, and last condition can appear under threat of with the beginning ofwar in Central Asia. First, deliveries of Turkmen gas and the Kazakhstan oil will bestopped; secondly, the Arabian countries will try to strike on economy of the West atnew war of the same Americans " against moslems "; And thirdly, approach of war

borders of Russia will threaten safety gazo-and oil pipelines of Russia from

diversions. As only Tadjiks in Russia lives nearby 3 and a half of millions, and thuscases of travel to Russia under documents of Tajikistan of citizens of Afghanistan(including members of the extremist organizations) it is impossible to guarantee to theEuropean Community reliability of deliveries of energy carriers have already beenfixed. The organization of protection of objects of an oil-and-gas complex in processof transition of capitals from one company and bank in others already now passes to

joint Russian-British structures of safety (an example - the project "Sakhalin-2"). Asthe same penetration became characteristic and for the companies from othercountries it is obvious, as they will wish to create similar structures for protection ofthe interests.

As similar structures are created at support of power structures of this or that state atincrease of threat for objects, which similar structures will protect, sending of military


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contingents is quite natural. From the European countries in the field of the Russianpower a leaging role the Great Britain and Germany and consequently it is necessaryto assume play what exactly they will show the greatest interest in protection of theinterests in territory of the former USSR. However, being based on experiences of warin Iraq it is possible to assume, that hardly the Great Britain will send a significant

contingent on territory of Russia; however Germany having at present the strongestEuropean overland forces, hardly remains in the party, and its contingent becomes abasis for new European "peacemakers". The countries of the European Communityhave numerous enough overland forces which partly have kept "classical" characterset still within "cold" war, and they can carry out a problem set them

Sources: 1. Chester U.Richards. Mobile impregnable armed forces. - "Gendalf",Moscow 2002.2. Deniel Smith, Markus Korbin, Christopher Hellman. New armedforces - "Gendalf", Moscow, 2002.3. Mirkovich Todor. Snage the GARDEN forregionalno angazhovane // Magazine (a military review) Joint Staff of theyoung/YUGOSLAVIAN army " Vojni Glasnik " (up to 1993.), with 1993 " Novi

glasnik " (Belgrad-n) - 2, 2001.4. Sivachek Jozhe, the colonel, potkonjak- Brankitsa. nelinearna bitka - operation of XXI century // Magazine (a militaryreview) Joint Staff of the young/YUGOSLAVIAN army " Vojni Glasnik " (up to1993.), with 1993 " Novi glasnik " (Belgrad-n) - 4, 2003.5. http: //www.rojname.com 6. http: // www.islamonline.net 7. http: // leav-www.army.mil 8.Vladimir Yevseyev. Problems of safety of Russia on its southern boundaries // theSeminar " Military safety of Russia: traditions and realities ". Carnegie's MoscowCenter 9. Andrey Grozin. Central Asia and Kazakhstan // the Newsletter-analytical ofInstitute of the CIS countries and Institute of diaspora and integration. - 38.10. Jim

Nikol. Central Asia: regional development and value for interests of the USA // theDepartment of the international attitudes, defenses and trade, Research service of theCongress of the USA on March, 10th, 2006 11. http: // www.tol.cz 12. Central Asia -2025. It is a lot of oil and many conflicts. Institute of the Analysis of the World policy13. The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. " Strategic Paradigms 2025: Planning ofsafety of the USA for the New Era " \Strategic Paradigms 2025:US Security Planningfor a New Era. 14. Interview of the Plenipotentiary Ambassador of RepublicTajikistan in Russian Federation Safara Safarova // the Red star. - on September, 9th,2006

Biography of Oleg Valecky.

Work in former Yugoslavia(from 1996 untill 2007)in demining and EOD companiesRONCO(USA),Minetech(UK),HELP UDT(Germany),Dok-Ing(Croatia),PMCInzenering(Serbia),in Iraq in 2004 in PSD company Erinys(UK)Military service in Soviet Army (10/10/1986-10/10/1988) in East Germany.,inRussian police (10/01/1992-08/15/1992) in Southern Osetia /Georgia,in Army ofSerbian Republic in Bosnia (03/15/1993-01/19/1995) ,in Yugoslavian Army(04/01/1999-06/17/1999) ,in Police of Macedonia (07/15/2001-08/20/2001)

I am author of book Yugoslavian war (author Oleg Valecky).The book describemilitary history of war in former Yugoslavia from 1991 until 1995 year. There are

manyExample of combat tactic of infantry, armor troops, combat engeaneers, aviation,


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paratroopers, SF units of Army and Police of both sides. Both sides is mean as JNAand armies of Republic of Srpska and Serbian Kraina,as well Croatia Army,Army ofBosnia(inclaude units of modzaheds).This is military analis of this war.The book"Yugoslavian war" can find in book shopFalanster, Moscow, Malij Gnezdikovskiy 12-27(metro

Pushkinskaya) telephone +7 495 5044795 and +7 4956928821,email [email protected] can find this book on http://militera.lib.ru/research/valetsky/index.html

Stories about humanitarian and comabat demining and EOD operationshttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ov.shtml http://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ova-2.shtmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ovb.shtml

http://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-iliev.html

http :// tewton .narod .ru /boy /val - miny .html

http :// www .vrazvedka .ru /wv 2/ content /view /59/88888902/

http :// almanach .gspo .ru /index .html

Story Private Military Companies in Iraq(on Russian)http :// artofwar .ru /w /waleckij _ o _ w /chvk .shtmlhttp :// www .hronos .km .ru /statii /2006/ valecki _ chastn .htmlhttp://www.soldat.ru/doc/valetskii.html
mailto:[email protected]://militera.lib.ru/research/valetsky/index.htmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ov.shtmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ova-2.shtmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ovb.shtmlhttp://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-iliev.htmlhttp://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-miny.htmlhttp://www.vrazvedka.ru/wv2/content/view/59/88888902/http://almanach.gspo.ru/index.htmlhttp://artofwar.ru/w/waleckij_o_w/chvk.shtmlhttp://www.hronos.km.ru/statii/2006/valecki_chastn.htmlhttp://www.soldat.ru/doc/valetskii.htmlmailto:[email protected]://militera.lib.ru/research/valetsky/index.htmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ov.shtmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ova-2.shtmlhttp://armor.kiev.ua/army/engenear/razminir-ovb.shtmlhttp://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-iliev.htmlhttp://tewton.narod.ru/boy/val-miny.htmlhttp://www.vrazvedka.ru/wv2/content/view/59/88888902/http://almanach.gspo.ru/index.htmlhttp://artofwar.ru/w/waleckij_o_w/chvk.shtmlhttp://www.hronos.km.ru/statii/2006/valecki_chastn.htmlhttp://www.soldat.ru/doc/valetskii.html

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