Afghanistan:Graveyard of Empires

Cartier Coleman

Research Question

Theoretical Focus

History of Afghanistan

Current Issues

Relevance & Focus

Agenda

Research Question

How does a local Afghan citizen’s viewpoint on security impact coalition efforts to rebuild the nation?

Why the Constructivist lens best fits

What factors contribute to Afghan concerns20th Cent Afghan pre-USSRRussian InvasionTalibanU.S. Invasion

How this lens can impact changeMistakes of the past repeatedKey civilian concerns ignored

Theoretical Focus

1926, Amanullah Khan founded an Afghan Monarchy Progressive and pushed for modernization

1929,Habibullah Khan overthrew Khan & in turn was killed by Prince Nadir Khan (cousin of Emir Khan)Attempted gradual modernization

1933 Nadir Khan killed, son Zahir Shah became king

1964 Zahir began to experiment with democracyBicameral legislature split into thirds

1973 nonviolent coupe led to former PM Daoud Khan

1978 PDPA kills Daoud & family and takes over AfghanContinued warring with multiple factions occur

(Afghan becomes DRA)

20th Cent. History (pre-USSR Invasion)

Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (via PDPA)SocialismLand ReformWomen’s RightsInvitation of USSR to establish infrastructure Killing of historic elites

Populace perceptionIncreasingly less popularToo dependent on USSRToo liberal/modernNo local support, security or services

20th Cent. History (pre-USSR Invasion)

Factors prompting invasionEgypt-Israel peace treatyStrategic placementPerceived natural resourcesSpread/support DRA & communism

U.S. Support to Mujahedeen Chance to impact USSR during Cold WarI.C. assistance to strain USSR economyStrategic advantage

Factors prompting exitGorbachev, costly-long and I.C. view/pressure

Populace perceptionNo local needs addressed, no support of DRA

Russian Invasion

Post USSR - Taliban

Factors causing Taliban ruleContinued warring factionsWarlords/OpiumLawlessness/Corruption

Mullah OmarMotivation to actMeaning of TalibEstablishing Taliban

Populace perceptionInitially very popularAddressed immediate local needsFaith based and then a shift – no local needs

U.S. Invasion – pre-Troop Surge

Factors causing invasionAttacks of 9/11Osama bin LadenRefusal to extradite

Initial mandate & shiftCapture/Kill bin LadenNation building Iraq War impacts

Populace perceptionInitially no concernInitially popularFalse hope Karzai and ANSF (Old

regime/corruption)

Post- U.S. Troop Surge

Factors causing surgeInability to quell opium harvestingTaliban Resurgence

Purpose of SurgeCreate model province (Khandahar)Prevent Taliban ResurgenceEstablish security

Populace perceptionNo trust in Gov’tDependency on U.S.Limited to no local services

Current State of SecurityCurrent methodology (COIN/Kinetic focus)How “we” view security?

Security from an Afghan’s ViewPriorities/ConcernsWhat type of security is important to them?Who has the most influence on the people?

Security

Relevance & FocusConstructivist corrective lens

Gives understanding to populace motivesIdentifies why the Taliban (like groups) thriveHelps identify possible attainable objectives

Relevance Outline/guide to solutionsHelps shape and gives basis for my thesis

FocusAnswers research questionShapes possible recommendations toward

solution

Achievable Goals

Gov’t Corruption (legitimize gov’t in public eyes)

Identify three “model” provinces for EMS/Sec policy change

Quantitative kinetic targeting of Taliban/Ins leaders (deadlines & smaller target list)

Mullah outreach programs

Recommendations via New Lens