Affinity Diagram

Decision and Risk Analysis

Affinity Diagram


Decision Analysis ProcessIdentify Problem

Identify Objectives (values)

Identify Alternatives

Decompose and Model Problem – Structure – Uncertainty – Preference

Choose Best Alternative

Sensitivity Analysis

MoreAnalysis Needed

Make Recommendation

Yes

No


Affinity Diagrams• An Affinity Diagram is a tool that gathers large

amounts of language data (ideas, opinions, issues) and organizes them into groupings based on their natural relationships

• Affinity process is often used to group ideas generated by Brainstorming

• Method:1. State the issue to be examined in broad terms, such as an open

ended question or statement.

2. Generate and record ideas using Post-it notes. Begin sticking them on a wall or large sheet of chart paper, in no particular order, and where everyone can see them

3. Arrange the notes in related or similar groupings

4. Choose a word or phrase that captures the intent of each group and place it at the top as a category name or title


Example

Selecting courses for Summer


Brainstorming- Step 1

• Generate Ideas



Display Ideas -Step 2

Time of the dayDay of the week

Cost of books

Cost of credit

Difficulty level

Professor



Sort Ideas into Groups -Step 3

Time of the day

Day of the weekCost of books

Cost of credit

Difficulty level

Professor



Create Headers -Step 4

Time Cost Quality



Draw the final Affinity Diagram – Step 5


Time of the day

Day of the week

Cost of books

Cost of credit Difficulty level

Professor

Time Cost Quality


Decision Analysis ProcessIdentify Problem

Identify Objectives (values)

Identify Alternatives

Decompose and Model Problem – Structure – Uncertainty – Preference

Choose Best Alternative

Sensitivity Analysis

MoreAnalysis Needed

Make Recommendation

Yes

No


Value Focused ThinkingChapter 6

Structuring DecisionsChapter 3Affinity Diagram

Quantitative value hierarchy model


Value Focused Thinking


Where are we going?

• Our goal is to build a “Value Function”– Quantifies the benefit that we get from implementing a decision

alternative

– Type of utility function

– Typically maps anticipated benefit to a dimensionless number (utility)

– Used for comparison purposes (which alternatives do more to give the decision make what he/she wants)

– Can be used as an objective function for optimization

• Helps overcome the things that make a decision hard to make

• First step in building a value function is to identify the DM’s values


Values

• Values – Those things that are important to a decision maker, things that they care about

• Values are fundamental to all we do

• Values should drive decisions


Identifying Values• Interact with decision makers

• Elicit feedback throughout design process or analysis

• Values are stated through objectives

• 3 Features of objectives

(1) Decision Context

(2) Object

(3) Direction of Preference

• ex. Forest products company wants to “minimize environmental impact”

(1) Decision Context - Harvesting Trees

(2) Object - Environmental Impact

(3) Direction of Preference - Minimum is best


Value Focused Thinking

Uncover hidden

objectives Creatingalternatives

Identify Decision

Opportun-ities

GuidingStrategicThinking

Inter-connectingdecisions

GuidingInformationCollection

Evaluatingalternatives

ImprovingCommun-

ication

InvolvingMultiple

DM’s

Where does thinking about values lead?

Keeney, Ralph L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decision making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.


Ways to Identify Values-Professor Gregory Parnell, USMA

• Gold Standard: based on an approved vision, policy, strategy, planning, or doctrine document – Values have been thought about, discussed, and written down

– We use work that has already been done and approved

• Platinum Standard: based on interviews with decision-makers and stakeholders – Often difficult to get enough time with stakeholders and DMs

– Use Affinity Diagram for group settings (will discuss later)

• Silver Standard: uses data provided by stakeholder representatives – When real DMs and stakeholders are not available

– Still use Affinity Diagrams for groups

• Combined Standard: combination of the above


Process of Identifying Values1. Research potential Gold Standard documents

• Recognize that environment might have changed• Results of research must be validated with DMs

2. Interview Stakeholders and/or Decision Makers• Validate Gold Standard work• If none, elicit values directly

3. Interact with lower level representatives as necessary• Fill in the blanks• Make sure you are consistent with thoughts of DMs

4. Combine above as necessary

Note: always check regularly with the decision makers or reps!


Structuring Objectives• Initial list has “non-objectives’’

– Alternatives– Constraints– Criteria for evaluation

• Convert “non-objectives” into objectives– Means objectives– Fundamental objectives

• Why is each important?– Means Objective: similar to smaller objectives that lead

to the fundamental objective – Fundamental Objective: Main objective


Values help guide strategic thinking

Means Obj 1 Means Obj 2 Means Obj 3

FundamentalObjective

• Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making• Strategic objectives are stable over time although the means to obtain these objectives vary over time.


My professional values help guide my strategic planning

Be an internationally recognized Military OR Analyst and Professor

Be an excellent teacher& mentor

Publish important research& be in demand as consultant

Perform significantprofessional service

Fundamental Objective

Means Objectives


Affinity Diagrams Example

• Scenario: The Global War on Terrorism has continued. Intelligence sources indicate that a country (Red), that is a known supporter of terrorism, is developing a Weapons capability at a facility in a populated urban area. After diplomatic discussions failed to have an impact on the leadership of Red, Blue (NATO) decides to “send a message” by an attack that will disrupt operations of the weapons facility.

• NATO Commander’s Intent: The combatant commander has decided to attack the electrical power grid to achieve the effect of disrupting the operations of the weapons facility. The commander’s intent is that the attack should be non-attributable to Blue, that the effects of the attack should be for a short duration (to preclude a long term disruption to Red’s economy), and that the attack should not result in Red civilian casualties.

• Analysis Methodology: The leader of the combatant commander’s analysis cell has decided to use Value-Focused Thinking to develop an Effect Based Operations value model for targeting course of action evaluations.


Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)

• Fundamental Objective: The fundamental objective is to “develop the best COA to achieve the commander’s intent.”

• Value Model Standard. Since our research found three Gold Standard documents, we used the Combined Standards approach. The three Gold Standard documents used were:– JP 3-60, Joint Doctrine for Targeting, 7 January 2002

– JP 3-13, Joint Doctrine for Information Operations, 8 October 1998

– JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations Doctrine, 10 September 2001

• Data for Affinity Diagrams. Focus research on verb-object combinations that defined the targeting objectives from the Gold

Standard documents and additional research



Identify Best Target

Conduct Defensive IO

Capture Target

Destroy Target

Disrupt Adversary

Delay Adversary

Neutralize Adversary

Degrade Capability

Deceive Adversary

Exploit Condition

Share Information

Access Information

Collect Information

Manipulate Information

Execute at Right Place

Execute at Right Time

Act Decisively

Prevent Fratricide

Achieve InformationSuperiority

Minimize UnintendedConsequences

Minimize Cost

Minimize Time

Minimize Risk

Maintain InformationSuperiority

Conduct Offensive IOConduct CNA

Expose Adversary DeceptionSupport Peace Operations

Disrupt WMD R&D ProgramsAffect Infrastructures

Deter War

Maximize Accuracyof Information

Maximize Timelinessof Information

Destroy C2Degrade C2

Isolate Enemy C2

Execute with Right Priority

Execute for Right Duration

Execute at Right Intensity

Minimize DuplicativeTargeting

Minimize Risk ofEscalation of Hostilities

Minimize Risk ofAdversary Reprisal

Contribute toEconomy of Force

Contribute to Offense

Execute with Simplicity

Enable Surprise

Contribute to Objective

Minimize Loss of Life

Minimize Loss of Intelligence

Minimize Diplomatic Problems

Minimize EnvironmentalProblems

Select the Right Weapon

Control Attribution

Highest Pk

Minimize Preparation Time

Minimize Execution Time

Achieve Time Certainty

JP 3-60 Additional ResearchJP 3-0 JP 3-13

Select The Right Target

Achieve Secondary Effect

Localize Geographic Extent

Maximize Functional Extent

Minimize Probabilityof Detection

Minimize Collateral Damage

Achieve Desired Duration

Achieve Desired Intensity

Achieve DesiredProportionality

Achieve DesiredReconstitution Time



Identify Best TargetCapture Target

Destroy Target

Disrupt Adversary

Delay Adversary

Neutralize Adversary

Degrade Capability

Deceive Adversary

Exploit Condition

Share Information

Access Information

Collect Information

Manipulate Information

Execute at Right Place

Act Decisively

Minimize Cost

Minimize Risk

Execute with Right Priority

Execute at Right Intensity

Minimize DuplicativeTargeting

Contribute toEconomy of Force

Contribute to Offense

Execute with Simplicity

Contribute to Objective

Select Right WeaponTo Achieve Effect

Select Target(s)To Achieve Effect

Determine EffectTo Achieve Intent

Verify DesiredEffect was Achieved

Select the Right Weapon

Highest Pk

Select The Right Target

Localize Geographic Extent

Achieve Desired Intensity

Disrupt WMD R&D Programs

Affect Infrastructures

Achieve Secondary Effect

Maximize Functional Extent

Expose Adversary Deception

Support Peace Operations

Destroy C2

Degrade C2

Isolate Enemy C2

Conduct Defensive IO

Conduct Offensive IO

Conduct CNA

Achieve InformationSuperiority

Maintain InformationSuperiority

Maximize Accuracyof Information

Maximize Timelinessof Information

Prevent Fratricide

Achieve Desired Effect



Deter War

Minimize Risk ofEscalation of Hostilities

Minimize Risk ofAdversary Reprisal

Minimize Loss of Life

Minimize Loss of Intelligence

Minimize Diplomatic Problems

Minimize EnvironmentalProblems

Minimize Loss of Business

Control Attribution

Minimize Preparation Time

Minimize Execution Time

Achieve Time Certainty

Minimize Probabilityof Detection


Achieve Desired DurationAchieve DesiredProportionality

Achieve DesiredReconstitution Time

Deliver for Right Duration

Deliver at the Right Time

Minimize Chance of Escalation


Control Attribution

Minimize Impact onFuture COAs

Execute at Right Time

Minimize Time

Execute for Right Duration

Enable Surprise

Minimize UnintendedConsequences

Minimize Unwanted

Effects

Achieve Time Effects



Select Right Weapon

To Achieve Effect

Identify best COA to Achieve Commander’s Objectives

Select Target(s)To Achieve Effect

MaximizeDesired Effects

Minimize Unwanted Effects

Determine EffectTo Achieve Intent

Achieve Time Requirements

Minimize Chance Of Escalation


Control Attribution

Deliver For Right Duration

Deliver At The Right Time

Verify DesiredEffect Was Achieved

Minimize Impact On Future COAs

Resulting Qualitative Value Model


In summary


General Qualitative Value Model(Value Hierarchy)

FundamentalObjective

Function 1 Function 2 Function 3

Objective 2.1 Objective 2.2 Objective 2.3

Evaluation Measure 2.2.1

Evaluation Measure 2.2.2

• There can be multiple tiers or levels so that the problem can be subdivided into small enough pieces

• At the bottom tier are the attributes or measures or metrics that are used to quantify achievement in the objectives

• Use terms most appropriate for the domain


Building a Qualitative Value Model

• Step 1: Identify the fundamental objective

• Step 2: Identify functions that provide value

• Step 3: Identify the objectives that define value

• Step 4: Identify the value measures


Overall Method We Will Employ

• Start with values (not alternatives)• Generate better alternatives based on values• Evaluate alternatives using values

This is the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) Philosophy• Multiple Objective Decision Analysis is the mathematical

technique used to implement VFT• Also called:

– Multiple Attribute Utility Theory – Multiple Attribute Value Theory – Multiple Attribute Preference Theory

Affinity Diagram

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