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Aerospace 2050 AEROSPACE 2050 The Future of Aviation & Space 18th April 2013 Hamburg April 2013 Prof Graham Roe Fellow of the RAeS
Transcript of Aerospace 2050 - The Future of Aviation & · PDF fileAerospace 2050 AEROSPACE 2050 The Future...
Aerospace 2050
AEROSPACE 2050The Future of Aviation & Space
18th April 2013
Hamburg
April 2013
Prof Graham RoeFellow of the RAeS
Scholz
Textfeld
Download this file from: http://hamburg.dglr.de
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050
CONTENTS
Introduction
Military
April 2013
Commercial
Space
Questions
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace Industry
CONTENTS
Introduction Military
Aerospace 2050 - Introduction
April 2013
Military
Commercial
Space
Questions
Aerospace 2050
Aerospace 2050 – My Background
March 2013
Aerospace 2050
45 years =
17 aircraft types
9 Prime contractors in 6 countries
Aerospace 2050 – The Sum of my Career!
9 Prime contractors in 6 countries
1 000 000+ air miles
500 000+ hotel points
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 - Military
CONTENTS Introduction
Military
April 2013
Military Commercial
Space
Questions
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 1970
April 2013
VietnamCold War
1970
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 1970 Aircraft
In Service
April 2013
Just Launched
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 1970 to 2010
1000
1200
Major Platforms
200000
250000
Personnel
The Royal Air force 1970 to 2010
April 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1950
1970
1990
Pre
sent
0
50000
100000
150000
1950
1970
1990
Pre
sent
Aerospace 2050
Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real £2008)
900
1050
1200
1350
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 1970 to 2010
Combat Aircraft
April 2013
2.19.0
32.6
100.8
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Spitfire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018)
Years/Aircraft
£M
illi
on
s
Aerospace 2050
300
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 1970 to 2010
Precision Attack
400
April 2013
100
200
300
Cir
cu
lar
Err
or
Feet
1970’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s1980’s
Aerospace 2050
Annual Sales of Aircraft $15bn
GDP of CYPRUS $15.4bn
Annual Sales of Weapons $7bn
GDP of GABON $7.2bn
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2010
April 2013
GDP of GABON $7.2bn
1995-2010 - 3750+ Fighter Aircraft built worth £170bn
173 countries have Air Forces
There is a current active inventory of 27000+ Military
Aircraft in the World
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – UK Military Air Operations 2010
Expeditionary
Maritime
April 2013
Protection ofUK Airspace
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – UK Military Post SDSR 2010
Expeditionary
Maritime
April 2013
Protection ofUK Airspace
Aerospace 2050
Service ProvisionMulti Activity Contracts
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2010 Business Trends
April 2013
OffsetTLCM
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Military 2010 -2050
Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real £2008)
1156.3
900
1050
1200
1350
Advanced Trainer 4%Bomber Aircraft 10%Electronic Platform Aircraft 2%Fighter / Strike Aircraft 4%
The Price of Combat Aircraft
April 2013
341.5
2.19.0
32.6
100.8
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Spitf ire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018) Future+1 (2043) Future+2 (2068)
Years/Aircraft
£M
illio
ns
Fighter / Strike Aircraft 4%Primary Trainer Aircraft 7%Transport/Tanker Aircraft 4%
B2 $2.2Bn
Aerospace 2050
NEW APPROACHS
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2010 -2050 ThreatsTECHNOLOGY
April 2013
FAILED STATESGLOBAL WAR ONTERRORISM (GWOT)
Aerospace 2050
Smaller
Global reach
AutonomySignaturecontrol
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2010 -2050 Technology
April 2013
control
Better Management
Remote Power
Simulation
Less
Network
Instant effect
Upper Atmosphere
Aerospace 2050
Global Accessible Combat aircraft market (new builds & upgrades)
25000
30000
35000
40000
US
$m
illio
ns
(2008
pri
ces)
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2010 - 2050 Market Trends
April 2013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US
$m
illio
ns
(2008
pri
ces)
Total
Committed
Aerospace 2050
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2050 - UK
Tanker
Transport
April 2013
Strike
ISTAR
Aerospace 2050
LONG ENDURANCE
SPACE MANNED STRIKE
Aerospace 2050 – Military 2050
New Weapon
UCAV
April 2013
GLOBAL REACH
PERSISTENTSTRIKE
TIME SENSITIVESTRIKE
BULK DELIVERY
Hyper Sonics
MorphingUAV
Micro Air Vehicles
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 - Commercial
CONTENTS Introduction
Military
Commercial
April 2013
Commercial Space
Questions
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Commercial 1970 - In-service
B727
DC 8
BAC 1-11
Caravelle
April 2013
USA
B707
EUROPE
Caravelle
ElectraComet
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Commercial 1970 – First’s
DC 10
L10-11
April 2013
B747 1st Commercial Flightacross Atlantic
Concorde goesSupersonic
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Commercial 1970 to 2010
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Annual Airframe Sales $40bn
GDP of United Arab Emirates $41bn
16000 Commercial Aircraft in World-wide use
Approx 3000 Commercial Aircraft parked!
Aerospace 2050 – Commercial 2010
April 2013
New Aircraft delivered in 2010 - >1000
160+ Airlines World-wide
72 Civil Airports in the UK and over 8000 Globally
4.9 trillion RPK flown in 2010 or approx 3.5k return trips to the Sun
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010
9000+ Aircraft
3000+ Aircraft
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010
3600 Aircraft
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Single Type FleetsLow Cost Operators
Commercial Aerospace Sector – 2010 to 2050 In Transition?
April 2013
Fleet Restructuring Point to PointRoutes
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aerospace Sector – 2010 to 2050
vs
The market Drivers
Speed
Efficiency
April 2013
Passenger Growth
Route Structures
Value of time
Economics
Issues
Efficiency
vs
Size
Aerospace 2050
Congestion
Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010 to 2050
OperationalImpacts
Tilt Rotors
Ultra Large Aircraft
High Speed Trains
Land Side Growth
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2010 to 2050
Noise
Emissions
Environmental Considerations
Noise
Sonic Boom
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aerospace Sector – 2010 to 2030
Aircraft in Service
Size 2010 2030Large 491 1800+
Twin Aisle 2400 7000+
Single Aisle 9000+ 19000+
Regional 3600+ 5600+Regional 3600+ 5600+
Total 16000+ 33400+
20 Year Aircraft Demand by Size
Size New Value ($bn)Large 1800 530+
Twin Aisle 7000+ 1600+
Single Aisle 19000+ 1300+
Regional 2100+ 70+
Total 29900+ 3500+
Source Airbus / Boeing
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aerospace Sector – 2010 to 2030
1500
2000
2500
An
nu
alD
eliv
eri
es
Total AirTransport Aircraft
Demand for
2009 - 2028
Increased: 30,299Baseline: 24,787Decreased: 18,600
Forecast Deliveries
Source BAE Systems PS
0
500
1000
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
An
nu
alD
eliv
eri
es
"Increased" 2009 Baseline Forecast "Decreased"
Decreased: 18,600
Marco Economic
“Increased”: Low OilWorld GDP Growth
Baseline: Oil $50
“Decreased”: High OilDepressed GDP
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 New Configurations
Blended wing
Novel Configurations
April 2013
Blended wing
Solar PoweredLow Slow Flight
Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 New Operations
Modular Aircraft
April 2013
Park and Ride
Pre Boarding
Modular Aircraft
No Runway MAGLEV Launch
Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008
Aerospace 2050
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 Extended Ranges
Flight Refuelling Air Carrier
April 2013
Flight Refuelling
Formation Flight Nuclear
Air Carrier
Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 - Space
CONTENTS Introduction
Military
Commercial
April 2013
Space
Questions
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 1970
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 1970 to 2010
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
Near-Term
Manifest
Aerospace 2050 – Space 1970 to 2010
Launches 1957 to 2008
Long-Term Demand Forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Nu
mb
er
of
Sate
llit
es
4,200 to 5,400kg
Over 5,400kg
2,200 to 4,200kg
Below 2,200kg
April 2013
Launches 1957 to 200819
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
12
Trends in GSO Satellite Mass Distribution
Aerospace 2050
Annual Global Space dependent business $55bn
GDP of Belrus $55bn
Annual Satellite Sales $9bn
Jamaican GDP $8.9bn
- INTRODUCTION
Aerospace 2050 – Space 2010
April 2013
Jamaican GDP $8.9bn
Annual Launch Services $12bn
42 commercial Companies operate 210+ Satellite
Systems
Over 4000 launches since 1950
60+ means of getting into space
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 2010 Back to the Future
April 2013
Space Shuttle OUT
SpacexFalcon / Dragon
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 2010 – Parking is Difficult!
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 2010 – But there is a Plan!
DARPA - PHOENIX
April 2013
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand
Two Way
Broadcast
April 2013
Typically 32 Transponders / Satellite
Aerospace 2050 - CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS - SPACE
Aerospace 2050 – Space 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand
Tele MedicineLogistics Tracking
April 2013
MultiMedia
FinancialTransactions
Aerospace 2050
Leverage Commercial Assets
Aerospace 2050 – Space 2010 to 2050 Military demand
Rapid Access
April 2013
ContractorProvidedServices
Global Strike
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace IndustryAerospace 2050 – Space 2050
Mission to MarsCommercial access
April 2013
Space Liner
Aerospace 2050
The Global Aerospace Sector has a future.
The Military Aerospace is Global
The Military Aerospace going Autonomous
Aerospace 2050 – Concluding Remarks
April 2013
The Military Aerospace going Autonomous
The Commercial Aerospace Customer are changing their Demands
The Commercial Aerospace Sector is going Greener
The Space Sector searching for cheaper ways to “BOLDLY GO”
The Space Sector is focused on commercial ways to access space
