A Presentation to FROST-14 Forecaster Training Workshopon

11 October 2012

Vancouver 2010 and Sochi 2012 Case Studies

by

George Isaac, Monika Bailey, Anna Glazer, Ivan Heckman, Laura Huang, and Jason Milbrandt

Environment Canada

Aerials’ jump

Spectator grandstand

Preparation of field-of-play 2 hours before training…

Freestyle Skiing Ladies Aerials Final, 25 February 2010

Freestyle Skiing Ladies Aerials Final February 24, 2010

Notes by Mindy Brugman as posted on SNOW-V10 Blog

The event….Last night at the Cypress aerial site it began with drizzle and was quite foggy… We walked to the bright lights of the venue. There was no precipitation at the venue the entire competition. The competition started at 1930 PST. The first pictures (not shown here) are taken at the start of the competition and you can see that the fog was much worse at the start. I stopped taking pictures since I could not see anything. Then it began to clear just near the end of the competiton – and I clicked a few pictures. You can detect a flying bug above the lights. Thats really the gold medal winner, Lydia Lassila, of Australia!Based on the event last night – I suspect ladies aerials may qualify as a new paralympic sport for the visually impaired.

INTW Forecasts of Visibility at VOG

ABOM Visibility LAM 1Kincluding 24 hours before ladies aerials

09:00 15:00 21:00 03:00 09:00 15:00 21:00 03:00 09:00 15:0010

1

102

103

104

105

Time

min

vis_

m

VOG: 2010-02-23 09:00 to 2010-02-25 15:30

3600 sec7200 sec14400 sec21600 secObservationsLAM 1K

ABOM Ceiling LAM 2.5K including 24 hours before ladies aerials

09:00 15:00 21:00 03:00 09:00 15:00 21:00 03:00 09:00 15:0010

1

102

103

104

105

Time

min

ceil_

m

VOG: 2010-02-23 09:00 to 2010-02-25 15:30

3600 sec7200 sec14400 sec21600 secObservationsLAM 2.5K

SOCHI, Russia – Due to heavy overnight snowfall on the women’s World Cup downhill course in Sochi’s Rosa Khutor, the second training run scheduled for Thursday was canceled.The trees were flocked with snow Thursday morning and about 20 centimeters of fresh wet snow covered the course, which had been modified slightly from Wednesday’s training run. A thick layer of fog also covered the slopes of the Rosa Khutor ski area on Thursday.

February 16, 2012; Sochi Case Study

Upper Hill site obs id lat lon height

9 RKHU3 RKHU-3 43.6359 40.3093 2043 ??looks wrong 46 RKHU8 RKHU-8 43.6353 40.3083 1740

model 2.2km SFO_Sochi_SnL_Aibga 43.633 40.289 1868.186 7k SFO_Sochi_SnL_Aibga_N 43.667 40.258 1179.081

Lower Site obs

65 RKHU7 RKHU-7 (Finish) 43.645 40.3314 980

model 2.2k SFO_Sochi_CFM_KorLa 43.692 40.295 787.936 7k SFO_Sochi_SnL_Aibga_N 43.667 40.258 1179.081

Temperature Obs

Relative Humidity Obs

Precipitation Rate ObsSites 46 & 65 no Precip

Precipitation Rate Model and Obs

INTW Example

INTW Example

NWP Models, Obs and INTW

NWP Models, Obs and INTW

NWP Models, Obs and INTW

NWP Models, Obs and INTW

ABOM Temperature: Upper Site 46

16/02 17/02 18/02-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Time

t C

COSMO2.2K - 7K UPPER (46)

OBSCOSMO2.2KCOSMO7K0.5 h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h

ABOM Relative Humidity: Upper Site 46

16/02 17/02 18/0220

40

60

80

100

Time

rhpct

COSMO2.2K - 7K UPPER (46)

OBSCOSMO2.2KCOSMO7K0.5 h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h

ABOM Temperature: Lower Site 65

16/02 17/02 18/02-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Time

t C

COSMO2.2K - 7K LOWER (65)

OBSCOSMO2.2COSMO7K0.5 h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h

ABOM Relative Humidity: Lower Site 65

16/02 17/02 18/0240

50

60

70

80

90

100

Time

rhpct

COSMO7K - 2.2K LOWER (65)

OBSCOSMO2.2KCOSMO7K0.5 h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h

Forecasters’ Whisker Plot - Temperature: Lower Site 65

16/02 17/02 18/02-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Time

t C

Forecasters Whisker Plot: COSMO2.2K - 7K LOWER (65)

OBSCOSMO2.2K

Summary• These were certainly two interesting events. Both

present difficult challenges for the forecaster.• The first shows the value of high resolution data in

time (one minute).• The second shows that you need fine scale models (EC

or CMC at 1km).• The Sochi observations need improvement. Lack of

visibility and precipitation measurements and strange wind measurements.

• The Nowcast products were useful in both cases.• We (EC) learned a great deal by looking at this case.