Aerial river passage over a forested Indian reservation in the … · 2018. 9. 20. · Dalton...
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Aerial river passage over a forested Indian reservation in the Amazon explains increased grain harvest
downwind
Antonio Donato Nobre, Luisa Vallejo, Adriana Cuartas, Jeison Santiago, Demerval Moreira
Earth System Science Center (CCST) Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE)
8 th EGU Leonardo Conference: From evaporation to precipitation:
The atmospheric moisture transportOctober 25– 27, 2016, Ourense - Spain
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GeoClimateChannelled Fluxes of Moisture, Climate Change,
Adaptation and Environmental Services
Funding CNPq CT-HIDRO
CNPq - FAPESP Rede Clima
WindRose Project - Fundação BemTeVi
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Longitude: 52° 12′ 48″
Latitude: 12° 34′ 12″
Altitude: 336m
Longitude: 55° 55′ 16″
Latitude: 13° 3′ 48″
Altitude: 399m
411 km
FLORESTA CERRADO
Comparing
two grain producing
localities in Pre-Amazon
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SOY 2011 planted area
ha
production
t
productivity
Kg/ha
LUCAS do Rio Verde 226200 757800 3350
Querência 242626 841427 3468
Corn 2011 planted area
ha
production
t
productivity
Kg/ha
LUCAS do Rio Verde 135330 601839 4447
Querência 29039 121964 4200
source IBGE Sidra base de dados Agropecuários
1ª
har
vest
2ª
har
vest
difference of almost 400 thousand tons
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Water Deficit, Surplus, Withdraws and
Replenishment along the year
beginning of wet season
beginning of dry season
critical differences
between sites
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Setembro
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Média para o mês
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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OutubroMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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Novembro
Média para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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Dezembro
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Média para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Xingu
reservation
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JaneiroMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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FevereiroMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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MarçoMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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AbrilMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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MaioMédia para o mês
Aerial rivers (traj BRAMS) 10 days back trajectories monthly average of daily mean trajectories 2008/2009/2010 ERA Interim reanalysis
Créditos Projeto Rios VoadoresComputação Demerval Soares Moreira
Xingu
reservation
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background:
eddy flux
covariance
high frequency
turbulent
exchange
short-range
wind footprint
vertical resolution
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concept: flying rivers
low frequency
net transport
long range wind footprint
horizontal resolution
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method:
precipitationshed
technique:
Lagrangian flows
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Inverted learning curve
➢FLEXPART Complex: lagrangian particle dispersion (tracers)with stochastic component (Special Thanks to Ephyslab!!)
subgrid
➢TRAJ Simpler: Trajectory model developed by CPTEC INPE,three-dimensional kinematic model coupled to the RAMSadapted to the tropics (BRAMS)
grid - work reported
➢WindTrek Simplest: Trajectory model to read directly fromERA INTERIM
grid - no interest in chemistry, only vapour transport
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• in identical repeated runs it changed particle ID and its attributes (altitude, position, humidity)
• Our main interest is connecting atmospheric-rivers climatological-footprints to land cover. Stochastic component compromised its use for our application
(Stohl and James 2004)
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BRAMS output - Wind
✓ 41 pressure levels✓ Variables: u, v, w (m/s), specific humidity (g/kg)✓ Spatial domain.
Lons: -86.61, -21.738Lats: -49,142, 13,758
✓ Espatial resolution 50km x 50km (0.477⁰ x 0.425 ⁰)✓ Spatial resolution 6 hours
TRAJ (Freitas et al. 1996)
ERA – Interim BRAMS TRAJ
geopotential height geometric height
~ 80 km grid ~ 50 km grid
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Aerial River Climatology
➢ConvexHull:
convex polygon of minimum area that covers all points of the paths chosen
January February March April
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It is calculated on the paths for each time step, showing representative spatial variability on a set of trajectories
January February March
January
January
February
February
March
March
April
April
April
➢Directional distribution: (standard deviation ellipses)
1 SD
2 SD
3 SD
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January mean-daily 10d BackTraj, 2000-2014➢TRAJ
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January mean-monthly 10d BackTraj, 2000-2014
convex hull and standard deviation elipses
➢TRAJ
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January mean 10d BackTraj, 2000-2014
Lucas - blue Querencia - magenta
➢TRAJ
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January February March April
May June July August
September October November December
Monthly mean 10 days BackTraj, 2000-2014➢TRAJ
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➢Annual cycle of precipitation: TRMM – 3b42
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➢AR Climatology: monthly means for each locality
Vertical integración up to 5500 m (95% of humidity)
➢TRAJ
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➢TRAJ
January February March April
May June July August
September October November December
Lucas do Rio Verde
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➢TRAJ Querência
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WindTrek Lagrangian rainfall upwind vapor sourcing
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➢TRAJ
convex hull all 10 days BckTrajectories January 2001
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➢WindTrek
convex hull all 10 days BckTrajectories January 2001
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Thank You!
And do not Miss!
Screen "Where have all the swallows gone?”
Thursday Amazon session 10:30 11:00 h
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fire scars – Xingu indian ReservationFoto Credit Antonio Donato Nobre 11/nov/2012
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High Xingu Indian Land
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Fire Scars 2010-2012: 30% burned
Data DETER
Dalton Valeriano, Luiz E. Maurano OBT/INPE,