AEC 2007 MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE September 19, 2007 Chicago, IL.

AEC 2007 MANAGEMENT CONFERENCESeptember 19, 2007

Chicago, IL

China’s Aluminum Industry

World’s Largest Producer of Aluminum 2006 output: 9.35 million MT (+17% y-o-y) 2007 H1 output: 5.7 million MT (+35% y-o-

y) 2007 output (estimated): 11.7 million MT

2


World’s Largest Aluminum Smelting Capacity 1997 capacity: 2 million tpy 2003 capacity: 8.3 million tpy 2006 capacity: 11.4 million tpy 2007 capacity (projected): 14.6 tpy

3


World’s Largest Consumer of Aluminum2005 consumption: 7 million MT2006 consumption: 8 million MT2007 (H1): 5.6 million MT (40% increase y-o-y)2007 consumption (projected): 9.6 million MT

July 2007 apparent consumption: 1.0281 MT2010 consumption: 14.39 million MT (est.)

4


World’s Largest In Alumina Refiningin 2007 alumina output likely will reach 17-20

million MT. In the 2008-2010 period China’s alumina

refining capacity will reach 28-30 million tpy.

5

China’s Aluminum IndustryWorld’s Largest In Aluminum Fabrication

Between 1988-2006 China’s aluminum fabrication industries had cumulative growth of ~800%. 1988 output: 416,000 MT 2005 output: 5.837 million MT 2006 output: 8.3369 million MT. 2007 H1 output: 5.023 million MT (+40.9% y-o-y) 2007 output: 10 million MT (estimated).

6

China’s Aluminum IndustryDeclining Exports of Primary Aluminum

November 2006 export tariff on primary aluminum increased to 15%. January-August 2007 primary aluminum exports declined by

56.8%. January-August 2006 exports: 853,756 MT January-August 2007 exports: 368,910 MT

Growing exports of fabricated aluminum products 1-7, 2007: 1.19 million MT exports (+88%) 1-7, 2007: 402,177 MT imports (+4%) 1-7, 2007: net exports: ~800,000 MT

7

China’s Extrusion IndustryChina’s Capacity to Produce Aluminum

Extrusions1997 : 2.35 million tpy.2004: 4.75 million MT.2007: 5.7 million tpy. 2010: 6.89 million MT (est.)

8

China’s Extrusion IndustryChina’s Output of Aluminum Extrusions

2003: ~ 2 million MT.2004: 2.8 million MT.2006: 4 million MT.2010: 5.52 million MT (est.)

9

China’s Extrusion IndustryApparent Consumption of Aluminum

Extrusions1995-2005 average annual growth was 16.4%.

2005: 3.217 million MT (13.2% increase y-o-y). Of that total 65% (2.08 million MT ) were

construction, 12% transportation and 10% machinery manufacturing extrusions.

compare North American construction extrusions @ 44.5%.

2010 (est.) construction extrusions will be 3 million MT (60% of all extrusions).

10

China’s Extrusion IndustryCharacteristics of China’s Aluminum

Extrusion Industry

~670 companies operating in China. down from ~ 1100 companies in 2001. Dali Region: ~ 300 extrusion companies down to

less than 100 as of 2006. 2010: ~300 (nationwide)

average output: 7200 tpy.

11

China’s Extrusion IndustryCharacteristics of China’s Aluminum Extrusion

Industry (cont’d).

as the pressure from Beijing to reduce pollution and increase energy efficiency increases the smaller, less efficient companies will continue to exit the market.

the larger, more technologically advanced enterprises, such as Asia Aluminum, Jianmei and Fenglv Aluminum continue to take market share.

12

China’s Extrusion IndustryCharacteristics of China’s Aluminum

Extrusion Industry (cont’d)

Since 1980 Chinese companies have imported a total of approximately 3800 extrusion presses. these account for almost 70% of all presses in

operation. nearly 50% of the new presses come from Taiwan

and another 18% or so from Japan.

13

China’s Extrusion Industry Characteristics of China’s Aluminum Extrusion Industry (cont’d)

Largest Chinese Aluminum Extrusion Co.’s (2007)

Asia Aluminum (350,000 tpy )* Guangdong Fenglv (260,000 tpy) (including new 160,000 tpy Sanshui

plant)* Guangdong Xingfa (150,000 tpy)*. (7% owned by Alcoa) Taishan Jinqiu (Kam Kiu) ( 150,000 tpy).* Liaoning Zhongwang (103,500 tpy). Shandong Huajian Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. (80,000 tpy to increase

to 120,000 tpy by 2010)* Nanshan Aluminum Industry (70,000 tpy).* Huachang Aluminum Industry Co. (60,000 tpy).* Guangdong Jianmei (50,100 tpy). (Japanese involvement) Shanxi Yangquan Aluminum Industry Joint Stock Co., Ltd. (50,000 tpy)* Guangdong Haomei Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. (36,000 tpy to increase

to 60,000 tpy).*

* updated information as of 2007.

14

China’s Extrusion IndustryExports of Aluminum Extrusions

net exports of aluminum extrusions (nationwide ): 1998: ~ 36,000 MT. 2002: ~ 135,000 MT. 2003 : ~ 155,000 MT. 2005 : ~ 200,000 MT. 2006: ~490 ,000 MT (accounts for ~45% of total

world exports) H1 2007: ~381,000 MT.

exports as a “release value”. as Chinese extrusion capacity grew faster than the domestic market

could absorb, exports became a release value, especially since 2004. increase in exports as a business opportunity.

as of early 2005 Chinese extruders’ share of the extrusion market in Australia was 20%.

15

China’s Extrusion IndustryExports of Aluminum Extrusions (cont’d)

VAT rebates and Tariff Changes 9/15/06: reduced VAT rebates on extrusions from

13% to 11%. 7/1/07: eliminated VAT rebates on extrusions.

8/1/07: imposition of temporary 15% export tax on non-alloyed rod and bar (Customs Code #ex76041000).

are extrusions next?

16

China’s Extrusion IndustryAsia Aluminum

new “aluminum city” in Zhaoqing (肇庆 ). 6 billion Yuan (~$790 million U.S.D.) investment. total capacity: 350,000 tpy (extruded products) is 3 times

Asia Aluminum's present capacity and most in Asia.because of automation of the new extrusion lines, each line

will only require 3 workers, as compared to the 10 workers per extrusion press presently required.

new extrusion lines have been imported from Japan, Germany and Italy.

energy efficiency of the new lines will enable the company to reduce energy consumption by 1/3rd.

plans to expand its scale and increasing the number of higher value-added products it produces, including industrial extrusions.

17

China’s Extrusion IndustryAsia Aluminum (continued)

the growing automotive industry in South China provides new opportunities for Asia Aluminum's new facilities which are designed to take advantage of this market opportunity

exports presently account for 20% of total sales the company's exports are growing at the rate of 30%-40% per

year the vast majority of new export orders are coming from Europe

and the Americas. last year Asia Aluminum obtained a European Union place of

origin certification.presently has a 6%-7% market share in China.

has gained market share at expense of smaller competitors.

18


Asia Aluminum went public in Hong Kong in 1998, then went private in May 2006. The company has expressed an interest in going public in the U.S. within three years.

The extrusion part of the new facility includes the following four business units: Zhaoqing Asia Aluminum Aluminum Factory Co., Ltd.; Zhaoqing Asia Aluminum Metals Research & Development Co., Ltd.; Feinisi (Zhaoqing) Moulds Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and Asia Aluminum Testing Center.

Asia Aluminum Testing Center selected by developer of Dubai’s 808 meter high, $1 billion U.S.D. skyscraper project.

19


projected revenue from the Zhaoqing “aluminum city” operations (including both the extrusion and rolling parts of the business) is 20 billion Yuan/annum (~$2.6 billion U.S.D./annum).

20

Opportunities and Challenges

“机会与挑战并存” “There Are Both Opportunities and

Challenges” saying widely used in China today

21

Opportunities and ChallengesIndustry-wide weaknesses

Small Scale Production: the industry is still dominated by small to mid-sized enterprises

Low Average Output: average output is only 7200 tpy.

Simple Products: the products which are produced are predominately simple products.

Fierce Price Competition: with low end products the sole basis for competition is price.

Lack of Intellectual Property: the companies lack their own intellectual property and the technological component of products emanating from Dali is low.

Quality: there still are many quality concerns.

22

Opportunities and ChallengesRegulatory Challenges

Increasing threat of trade sanctions. Because the U.S. may continue to deem China as a

"non-market economy" for another 15 years after WTO accession, the likelihood of anti-dumping actions against domestic industries continues to be high.

Based on the Coated Free Sheet Paper case the anti-subsidies law has become another trade remedy against China by U.S. manufacturers.

as exports increase the demands for trade sanctions increase.

23

Opportunities and ChallengesRegulatory Challenges (cont’d)

elimination of VAT rebates for aluminum extrusions. September 2006 VAT rebates reduced to 11% from

13%. July 2007 eliminated VAT rebates on aluminum

extrusions.

24

Opportunities and ChallengesRegulatory Challenges (cont’d)

reduction of import duties on primary aluminum Primary aluminum imports reduced to 0% tariff.

imposition of export tariffs. November 2006 export duty on primary aluminum raised to 15%.

Jan-June, 2007 exports of primary aluminum decreased 76%. Response of Chinese was to minimally process primary aluminum

and then export on July 19, 2007 the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement

that a provisional tariff of 15% on non-alloyed aluminum bar and rod exports would be imposed(Customs Tariff # ex76041000). Baotou Aluminum announced that they expect to experience a

decline in profits for all of 2007 due to the elimination of VAT rebates on aluminum alloy billet and round aluminum rods for electrical uses.

25

Opportunities and ChallengesQuality Challenges: despite improvements,

there are still substandard products which make there way into the market because:

chemical composition is substandard (principally where the amount of trace iron materials is too high).

Overuse of substandard scrap materials . an insufficient refining process-- iron wasn’t sufficiently

eliminated. the thickness of the oxidized skin isn’t as required by

industry standards. the color isn’t uniform (because the oxidation period is

too short—creating a “hot pot-like” (shuai yang rou) treatment (only 4µm to 7µm thick).

the walls of the extrusions are too thin (0.8mm).

26

Opportunities and ChallengesQuality Challenges (cont’d):

On September 5, 2007 the Bureau of Industry and Commerce of Guangdong Province issued a product quality report for construction extrusions.

only 57.8% of those construction extrusions surveyed met quality standards.

27

Opportunities and ChallengesOvercoming Technical Trade Barriers

The Case of the “Lead-free 6020 Alloy” Chinese refer to being subjected to “wave upon

wave of technical trade barriers”. in 2003 the European Union promulgated restrictive

environmental standards which, according to the Chinese affected 10’s of billions of dollars worth of exports.

in response Fenglv Aluminum Industry undertook a project to develop the lead-free 6020 alloy, which they were able to do by early 2007.

28

Opportunities and ChallengesMacro-Economic Challenges

cost of capital China’s central bank has raised interest rates four

times in 2007appreciation of the Yuan vs. the $.

The Yuan has appreciated approximately 7% since the summer of 2005 when the Chinese government loosened controls on the fluctuation of the Yuan.

29

Opportunities and ChallengesEfficiency Challenges

need to become more energy efficient. 85% of existing buildings in China are not energy

efficientneed to reduce pollution

30

Opportunities and ChallengesMarket Challenges

rapid increases in primary aluminum prices in 2006 and 2007 have put a squeeze on working capital for many of the smaller aluminum extrusion companies in China.

rapid increases in extrusion capacity in China puts pressure on pricing and increases competition.

31

Opportunities and ChallengesDomestic Market Opportunities Abound

China’s per person consumption of aluminum extrusions as of 2001 was 1.2kg compared to 27.2kg for the U.S. and 19.2kg for Japan.

if China’s consumption per capita were to approximate the U.S., Japan or Switzerland, total output of aluminum products would reach 22 million tpy, including 8.8 million tpy of aluminum extrusions.

32


(cont’d) from the domestic real estate development industry from growth of China’s transportation industry

by 2010 Chinese automotive industry demand for extrusions: 900,000 MT

to help achieve Beijing’s energy conservation goals. 15-20% of total energy consumption is from buildings.

from 2008 Olympics games projects from 3/07 through 8/08 demand for extrusions by Beijing

alone will be equal to twice European demand for extrusions in that period.

33


(cont’d)“Opening Up the West”“Revitalizing the Northeast”further development of citiesfrom 2010 Shanghai World gamesfrom 2010 Guangzhou Asia gamesother markets

Aluminum furniture: 40,000 to 50,000 tpy Bicycles: 60,000 to 65,000 tpy

34

Opportunities and Challenges

export opportunitiesWith China’s accession to the WTO, tariff

barriers have been lowered creating a business opportunity for Chinese extrusion exports.

35

Opportunities and ChallengesQuality Improvement Opportunities

Dali has four enterprises whose products have earned the “China Famous Product” designation.

Dali products have been incorporated in such high profile projects as the Shenzhou #6 spacecraft and the 2008 Beijing Olympics venues.

the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Associations’ Aluminum Construction Profiles Permit Issuance Office has issued 550 permits (since 2004). since the permitting system went into effect, the quality

of construction extrusions has improved greatly and the number of substandard products in the market has greatly diminished.

36

Opportunities and ChallengesProduct Mix Opportunities

energy efficient windows, doors and curtain wall products. both renovations and new construction

50% of energy inefficiencies are from windows and doorshigh end products are in short supply in China.

there is an insufficient scale of production for high end products.market opportunities are substantial in high end products.

in China today construction extrusions now account for 70% of total output and industrial extrusions account for 30% of total extrusion output up from an 80:20 ratio as of 2005, though still less 55:25 ratio common in industrialized countries.

foreign industrial extrusions account for 70% of the industrial extrusion market in China

37

Opportunities and ChallengesInternationalizing Operations

Strengthening financial accounting standards. by steadily bringing their financial accounting in line with

international accounting standards.

Developing relationships with foreign entities. examples:

Kamkiu becoming member of AEC and AAA. Kamkiu’s relationship with Thermal Processing

Technology Center of the Illinois Institute of Technology.

Hiring locals (ex. Kam Kiu’s business development persons in North America) and expats to work in China.

38

Opportunities and ChallengesProfessionalizing the Industry

in 2002 the Guangdong Non-Ferrous Metal Technology Innovation Center was established.

in 2004 the the Nanhai Aluminum Products Industry Association was established and the Development Strategy for the Nanhai Aluminum Products Industry was launched.

mutual recognition of quality standards between Nanhai and the European Union.

39

Opportunities and ChallengesFinancing Growth

from being part of Chalco ex: Southwest Aluminum

from internal growth ex: Jinqiao Aluminum (Kamkiu).

from foreign investment ex: Alcoa’s purchase of a 7% interest in Xingfa

Aluminum ex: Indalex once owned 26.6% of Asia Aluminum ex: Japanese interests are running Jianmei Aluminum.

from stock markets ex: Asia Aluminum

40

Role of the Chinese GovernmentThe Central Government is not a Monolith.

It provides “guidance”. In late April 2007 Foshan Customs issued a

“reminder” to extrusion exporters that they should follow policy “directions” to slow exports in order to reduce the “trade frictions” that have risen along with increases in exports of aluminum extrusions.

It sets macroeconomic policy Example: has the ability to change tax policy.

In September 2006 China’s central government reduced VAT rebates on aluminum extrusions from 13% to 11%.

In July 2007 VAT rebates on aluminum extrusions were eliminated.

41

Role of the Chinese Government The central government is not a

Monolith (cont’d):It advises the industry on international trade

issues.The Chinese Central Government encourages

restraint it admonishes companies to exercise self-restraint it uses macro-economic levers to make exporting

more expensive. example: eliminating VAT rebates on extruded

products.

42

Role of the Chinese Government The central government is not a

Monolith (cont’d):the importance of local governments.

their goals are economic development and employment.

they provide the bulk of the incentives for further development of the extrusions industry

43

Role of the Chinese Government

44

Role of the Chinese Government Incentives given by local governments

(cont’d)The Zhaoqing Example

tax relief: foreign investors who establish a productive enterprise

in the Zhaoqing New Technology Development District with a term of 10 years or more do not pay enterprise income tax for the first two profit-making years and pay ½ of enterprise income taxes due for the next 3 years.

40% of enterprise income taxes already paid by enterprise s on amounts reinvested for at least five years in the Zhaoqing New Technology Development District are rebated.

45

Role of the Chinese Government Incentives given by local governments

(cont’d)The Zhaoqing Example

loans: six of the largest banks in China have extended credit to Asia Aluminum in the approximate amount of 3.8 billion Yuan (about 50% of the 8 billion Yuan cost of the project).\

municipal fees: all administrative fees “within the authority of the government "payable by enterprises in the Zhaoqing New Technology Development District will be waived; all service fees will be ½ of the minimum fee normally paid; costs only will be collected for various licensing matters.

46

China’s Response to Foreign Trade ChallengesChinese View: companies lose anti-dumping

actions because :1) they do not vigorously defend against the

actions (in part because of the high legal fees involved); and

2) they do not have a good financial accounting system in place and therefore are not in a good position to give a detailed and complete accounting of production costs.

47

China’s Response to Foreign Trade ChallengesChina Non-Ferrous Metals Processing Industry Association:

Chinese companies must rely on their association (who under WTO rules may answer a trade suit on behalf of the industry) and band together to respond to anti-dumping actions. Example of Chinese extrusion industry response to South

Africa’s Anti-Dumping Case. Response organized by Foshan city Foreign Economics

and Trade Bureau. Presentation by Beijing’s Gaopeng Law Firm whose

assessment was that the Chinese extruders had a “high degree of success”.

Determination not to “lightly” concede the South African market and to respond to the case (though only Guandong Jianmei signed on while the others are still evaluating)

48

Lou SchwartzChina Strategies, LLC

www.chinastrategiesllc.com412-521-1846

[email protected]

AEC 2007 MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE September 19, 2007 Chicago, IL.

Documents

Transcript of AEC 2007 MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE September 19, 2007 Chicago, IL.