Advantage Business Group
description
Transcript of Advantage Business Group
Advantage Business Group
‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500
www.Advantage-Business.co.uk
Combining Cognitive Maps with other OR methods to support Decision-Makers
ISMOR 21, September 2004
Colin Drysdale
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 3
Presentation Outline
Introduction
• Home Office – Crime Reduction Model
• MOD, Dstl – C3I system Benefits Model– (Command Control Communications & Intelligence)
Final Discussion
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 4
Introduction
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 5
Decision making – common themes
• Governmental decision makers
• Account rationally for decisions
• Possibility of some form of ‘public’ scrutiny
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 6
Case Study 1
Home Office – Crime Reduction Model
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 7
Home Office – Crime Reduction Model
• Responsibilities include reducing the level of crime in England and Wales
• Culture change
• ‘evidence based policy making’
• Justification
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 8
Spending Review 2004
• Knowledge existed across a number of groups
• Some of this was locked in experts’ minds
• Seemed like a job for SODA cognitive mapping– (Strategic Options Development and Analysis )
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 9
Cognitive Mapping - Justification
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 10
Intermediate step
List
Example
Intervention
Goal
Cognitive Map - Concepts
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 11
Weak Link
Connotative
Possible Link
Causal
-Negative Causal
Logical AND&
&
Cognitive Map - Links
Correlation
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 12
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Cognitive Map - Constructs
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 13
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Argument
Constructs
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 14
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box
Memo
Argument Evidence
Constructs
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 15
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box
Memo
Argument Evidence
Constructs
= Case +
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 16
Approach
• ~30 Interviews– Generated initial maps
• interviewees invited to discuss:– causes of crime– policy goals– interventions– …– evidence sources / quality
• Synthesis– To a single map (~2400 - 1800 concepts)
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 17
Initial benefits
• Knowledge model
• Single resource
• Linked to exiting documents
• Shows where more research & analysis is required
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 18
Next issue
• Interventions that should be funded ?
• Defines the “Problem”
• Time stepped simulation
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 19
Further insights
• Exploit causal pathways• Interventions to goals• ~1800 concepts • MS Excel with VBA tool developed
• Enabled analysis of– Contradicting interventions– Loops in the causal logic – Completely dependent interventions
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 20
Dependent interventions
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 21
Findings
• Many logical anomalies
• different interpretations of “intervention”
• Showed that – more clarity needed– for quantitative modelling
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 22
Case Study 1 – Further benefits
• Cognitive modelling helped define ‘the problem’ and requirements for more quantitative modelling
• In this role SODA cognitive mapping should not be viewed ‘soft’ OR– it enables a ‘soft-to-harder’ transition
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 23
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 24
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 25
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 26
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 27
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
tacit
explicit
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 28
Case Study 2
MOD - C3I system Benefits Modelling
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 29
Benefits Modelling
• Dstl name
• Causal mapping & MCDA
• C3I systems
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 30
The Task
• Aim - Develop a C3I system benefits model
• Purpose – support contractor down-select & OR programme definition
• Implementation – constrained to perform calculations in Excel with VBA for ease of maintenance in-house
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 31
The concept
• SODA COGNITIVE maps contain CAUSAL logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated ….
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 32
MCDA nets for C3I get complicatedInvestments(SRD / ADD
Level)
Investments(URD Level)
SystemAttributes
Organisational Attributes
Militarycapabilities
Value System
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 33
The concept
• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated
• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 34
The concept
• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated
• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool
• Why not use the cognitive map as the front end to an Excel with VBA MCDA model
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 35
What happened
• Workshop - “false start” !
• Unavoidable part of the problem exploration process
• How to recover– Stay calm– Needs skill and experience
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 36
Recovery
• Method was unfamiliar but ….– Resembled familiar information flows
• Solution was to exploit familiar information flows
• Converted these “off-line”
• High level structure
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 37
Benefits Modelling
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
causalmapping
MCDA
MCDA
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 38
Final Discussion
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 39
Final Discussion
• Take-up of Soft OR techniques has not been universal
• Combining cognitive mapping with other techniques– quantified logical case– pass independent scrutiny
• Both studies illustrate that cognitive mapping supports problem formulation
• The second study illustrates that cognitive mapping requires skill & experience
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 40
References / Reading
• Description of the SODA technique see: “Rational Analysis for a Problematic World”, Ed. J Rosenhead, Chapter 2, John Wiley & Sons, 1989.
• “Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis – Practically the only way to choose”, V Belton, OR 32, Sep 1990, Published in “Operational Research Tutorial Papers: 1990”
• “Benefits Analysis – A Robust Assessment Approach”, G Mathieson, Dstl, 2002, Unclassified.