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Transcript of Advantage Business Group ‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500 .
Advantage Business Group
‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500
www.Advantage-Business.co.uk
Combining Cognitive Maps with other OR methods to support Decision-Makers
ISMOR 21, September 2004
Colin Drysdale
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 3
Presentation Outline
Introduction
• Home Office – Crime Reduction Model
• MOD, Dstl – C3I system Benefits Model– (Command Control Communications & Intelligence)
Final Discussion
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 5
Decision making – common themes
• Governmental decision makers
• Account rationally for decisions
• Possibility of some form of ‘public’ scrutiny
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 7
Home Office – Crime Reduction Model
• Responsibilities include reducing the level of crime in England and Wales
• Culture change
• ‘evidence based policy making’
• Justification
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 8
Spending Review 2004
• Knowledge existed across a number of groups
• Some of this was locked in experts’ minds
• Seemed like a job for SODA cognitive mapping– (Strategic Options Development and Analysis )
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 10
Intermediate step
List
Example
Intervention
Goal
Cognitive Map - Concepts
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 11
Weak Link
Connotative
Possible Link
Causal
-Negative Causal
Logical AND&
&
Cognitive Map - Links
Correlation
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 12
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Cognitive Map - Constructs
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 14
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box
Memo
Argument Evidence
Constructs
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 15
Intervention
Goal
Intervention
Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box
Memo
Argument Evidence
Constructs
= Case +
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 16
Approach
• ~30 Interviews– Generated initial maps
• interviewees invited to discuss:– causes of crime– policy goals– interventions– …– evidence sources / quality
• Synthesis– To a single map (~2400 - 1800 concepts)
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 17
Initial benefits
• Knowledge model
• Single resource
• Linked to exiting documents
• Shows where more research & analysis is required
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 18
Next issue
• Interventions that should be funded ?
• Defines the “Problem”
• Time stepped simulation
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 19
Further insights
• Exploit causal pathways• Interventions to goals• ~1800 concepts • MS Excel with VBA tool developed
• Enabled analysis of– Contradicting interventions– Loops in the causal logic – Completely dependent interventions
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 21
Findings
• Many logical anomalies
• different interpretations of “intervention”
• Showed that – more clarity needed– for quantitative modelling
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 22
Case Study 1 – Further benefits
• Cognitive modelling helped define ‘the problem’ and requirements for more quantitative modelling
• In this role SODA cognitive mapping should not be viewed ‘soft’ OR– it enables a ‘soft-to-harder’ transition
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 23
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 24
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 25
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 26
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 27
‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
tacit
explicit
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 29
Benefits Modelling
• Dstl name
• Causal mapping & MCDA
• C3I systems
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 30
The Task
• Aim - Develop a C3I system benefits model
• Purpose – support contractor down-select & OR programme definition
• Implementation – constrained to perform calculations in Excel with VBA for ease of maintenance in-house
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 31
The concept
• SODA COGNITIVE maps contain CAUSAL logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated ….
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 32
MCDA nets for C3I get complicatedInvestments(SRD / ADD
Level)
Investments(URD Level)
SystemAttributes
Organisational Attributes
Militarycapabilities
Value System
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 33
The concept
• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated
• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 34
The concept
• SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic– and additional information
• MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated
• Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool
• Why not use the cognitive map as the front end to an Excel with VBA MCDA model
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 35
What happened
• Workshop - “false start” !
• Unavoidable part of the problem exploration process
• How to recover– Stay calm– Needs skill and experience
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 36
Recovery
• Method was unfamiliar but ….– Resembled familiar information flows
• Solution was to exploit familiar information flows
• Converted these “off-line”
• High level structure
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 37
Benefits Modelling
subjective
objective
quantitativequalitative
Soft
Hard
causalmapping
MCDA
MCDA
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 39
Final Discussion
• Take-up of Soft OR techniques has not been universal
• Combining cognitive mapping with other techniques– quantified logical case– pass independent scrutiny
• Both studies illustrate that cognitive mapping supports problem formulation
• The second study illustrates that cognitive mapping requires skill & experience
Advantage Technical Consulting 2004 Slide 40
References / Reading
• Description of the SODA technique see: “Rational Analysis for a Problematic World”, Ed. J Rosenhead, Chapter 2, John Wiley & Sons, 1989.
• “Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis – Practically the only way to choose”, V Belton, OR 32, Sep 1990, Published in “Operational Research Tutorial Papers: 1990”
• “Benefits Analysis – A Robust Assessment Approach”, G Mathieson, Dstl, 2002, Unclassified.