Advantage Answers General Samford 2012

8/22/2019 Advantage Answers General Samford 2012

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SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General1

Advantage Answers - General

Advantage Answers - General.................................................................................................................................. 1*Accidents................................................................................................................................................................ 2*CBWs...................................................................................................................................................................... 5*C!"etitiveness.....................................................................................................................................................#*Cl$d C!"$ting...................................................................................................................................................%*C&'er terrr.......................................................................................................................................................... 1(*De!crac&............................................................................................................................................................ 12*)cn!&............................................................................................................................................................... 1*)+,...................................................................................................................................................................... 1*Disease.................................................................................................................................................................. 1-AIDS..................................................................................................................................................................... 2(-Bird /l$................................................................................................................................................................. 2-)'la..................................................................................................................................................................... 2#-0$'erc$lsis.........................................................................................................................................................2-SAS..................................................................................................................................................................... 2%-ew Asia s$"er'$g...............................................................................................................................................31

-Swine /l$..............................................................................................................................................................32*/d Sec$rit&....................................................................................................................................................... 33*4ege!n&............................................................................................................................................................35 1 6eg 6ig6 - 2nc !$st read..............................................................................................................................3%2 6eg desnt slve war....................................................................................................................................33 n transitin war........................................................................................................................................... 5

5 ,r"6ecies 7 4egare wrng 877e........................................................................................................ 4eg is s$staina'le ........................................................................................................................................# C6ina nt a t6reat..........................................................................................................................................%*4$!an ig6ts Cred.............................................................................................................................................5(*Internet................................................................................................................................................................52*9GS.................................................................................................................................................................... 5

*antec6.............................................................................................................................................................. 5*,rli7 .................................................................................................................................................................... 5* ) +................................................................................................................................................................... (*es$rce Wars.....................................................................................................................................................2*Se!icnd$ctrs................................................................................................................................................... *S7t ,wer /rntline............................................................................................................................................ 5):t 1 - ;a"lan......................................................................................................................................................#():t 2 alt ca$ses git!....................................................................................................................................#1):t 3 4eg $ns$staina'le '$dget c$ts............................................................................................................#2):t 5 s7t "wer 6ig6 nw................................................................................................................................#3):t +ilitar& in7l$ence


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*Accidents

No accidental launchQuinlan 09[Michael, Former Permanent Under-Sec. State UK Ministry of Defense, Thinkin a!o"t #"clear $ea%ons& Princi%les, Pro!lems, Pros%ects', %. ()-(*+

en if initial n"clear "se did not "ickly end the fihtin, the s"%%osition of ine/ora!le moment"m in a deelo%in e/chane, 0ith each

side r"shin to oerreactionamid conf"sion and "ncertainty, is im%la"si!le. 1t fails to consider what the situation of thedecisionmakers would really be. Neither side could want escalation. 2oth 0o"ld !e a%%alled at 0hat 0as oin on. Both would be

desperately looking for signs that the other was ready to call a halt. 2oth , ien the ca%acity for easion or concealment 0hich modemdeliery %latforms and ehicles can %ossess, co"ld hae in resere sinificant forces in"lnera!le eno"h not to entail "se-or-lose%ress"res. 31t may !e more o%en to "estion, as noted earlier, 0hether ne0er n"clear0ea%on %ossessors can !e immediately in that %osition4 !"t it is 0ithin reach ofany s"!stantial state 0ith adanced technoloical ca%a!ilities, and attainin it is certain to !e a hih %riority in the deelo%ment of forces.5 6s a res"lt, neitherside can hae any %redis%osition to s"%%ose, in an am!i"o"s sit"ation of fearf"l risk, that the riht co"rse 0hen in do"!t is to o onco%io"sly la"nchin 0ea%ons. 6nd none of this analysis rests on any presumption of hihly s"!tle orpre-concertedrationality. The rationality re"ired is %lain. The ar"ment is reinforced if 0e consider the %ossi!le reasonin of an aressor at a more dis%assionate leel. 6nys"!stantial n"clear armo"ry can inflict destr"ction o"t0eihin any %ossi!le %ri7e that aression co"ld ho%e to sei7e. 6 state attackin the %ossessor of s"ch anarmo"ry m"st therefore !e doin so 3once ien that it cannot co"nt "%on destroyin the armo"ry %re-em%tiely5 on a 8"dement that the %ossessor 0o"ld !e fo"ndlackin in the 0ill to "se it. 1f the attacked %ossessor "sed n"clear 0ea%ons, 0hether first or in res%onse to the aressor9s o0n first "se, this 8"dement 0o"ld !ein tolook danero"sly %recario"s. There m"st !e at least a s"!stantial %ossi!ility of the aressor leaders9 concl"din that their initial 8"dement had !een mistaken:that therisks 0ere after all reater than 0hateer %ri7e they had !een seekin, and that for their o0n co"ntry9s , s"rial they m"st call off the aression. Deterrence %lannins"ch as that of #6T; 0as directed in the first %lace to %reentin the initial mis8"dement and in the second, if it 0ere neertheless made, to com%ellin s"ch area%%raisal. The former aim had to hae %rimacy, !eca"se it co"ld not !e taken for ranted that the latter 0as certain to 0ork. 2"t there 0as no ro"nd for ass"min inadance, for all %ossi!le scenarios, that the chance of its 0orkin m"st !e nelii!le. 6n aressor state 0o"ld itself !e at h"e risk if n"clear 0ar deelo%ed, as itsleaders 0o"ld kno0. 1t may !e ar"ed that a %olicy 0hich a!andons ho%e of %hysically defeatin the enemy and sim%ly ho%es to et him to desist is %"re am!le, amatter of 0ho !links first4 and that the %olitical and moral nat"re of most likely aressors, almost e/ hy%othesi, makes them the less likely to !link. ;ne res%onse to

this is to ask 0hat is the alternatie:it can only !e s"rrender. 2"t a more %ositie and ho%ef"l ans0er lies in the fact that the criticism is %osed in a%olitical ac""m. )has noted, the key task in deterrence of !"ildin "% in adance a clear and shared ras% of 0here limits lie. That 0as %lainly achieed in cold-0ar "ro%e. 1f italinterests hae !een defined in a 0ay that is dear, and also clearly not oerla%%in or incom%ati!le 0ith those of the adersary, a credi!le !asis has !een laid for thelikelihood of reater resole in resistance. 1t 0as also sometimes s"ested !y critics that 0hateer miht !e indicated !y theoretical disc"ssion of %olitical 0ill andinterests, the military enironment of n"clear 0arfare:%artic"larly diffic"lties of comm"nication and control:0o"ld drie escalation 0ith oer0helmin %ro!a!ilityto the limit. 2"t it is o!sc"re 0hy matters sho"ld !e rearded as ineita!ly .so for eery %ossi!le leel and settin of action. en if the history of 0ar s"ested 3as itscarcely does5 that military decision-makers are mostly a%t to 0ork on the %rinci%le 9$hen in do"!t, lash o"t9, the n"clear reol"tion creates an "tterly ne0 sit"ation.

The %erasie reality, al0ays %lain to !oth sides d"rin the cold 0ar, is ?1f this oes on to the end, 0e are all r"ined9. @ien that ine/ora!le escalation 0o"ld meancatastro%he for !oth, it 0o"ld !e %ererse to s"%%ose them %ermanently inca%a!le of framin arranements 0hich aoid it. 6s %ae A( has noted, #6T; ae itsmilitary commanders no 0ides%read deleated a"thority, in %eace or 0ar, to la"nch n"clear 0ea%ons 0itho"t s%ecific %olitical direction. Many ty%es of 0ea%onmoreoer had %hysical safe"ards s"ch as P6Bs incor%orated to reinforce orani7ational ones. There 0ere m"lti%le comm"nication and control systems for %assininformation, orders, and %rohi!itions. S"ch systems co"ld not !e totally "aranteed aainst disr"%tion if at a fairly intense leel of strateic e/chane:0hich 0as onlyone of many %ossi!le leels of conflict: an adersary 8"ded it to !e in his interest to 0eaken %olitical control. 1t 0as far from clear 0hy he necessarily sho"ld so

8"de. en then, ho0eer, it remained %ossi!le to o%erate on a eneral fail-safe %res"m%tion& no a"thori7ation, no "se. That 0as the !asis on 0hich #6T; o%erated. 1fit is feared that the arranements 0hich A a n"clear-0ea%on %ossessor has in %lace do not meet s"ch standards in some res%ects, the loical co"rse is to contin"e toim%roe them rather than to ass"me escalation to !e certain and "ncontrolla!le, 0ith all the enormo"s inferences that 0o"ld hae to flo0 from s"ch an ass"m%tion. Thelikelihood of escalation can neer !e ACC %er cent, and neer 7ero. $here !et0een those t0o e/tremes it may lie can neer !e %recisely calc"la!le in adance4 and een0ere it so calc"la!le, it 0o"ld not !e "ni"ely fi/ed:it 0o"ld stand to ary h"ely 0ith circ"mstances. That there sho"ld !e any risk at all of escalation to 0ides%readn"clear 0ar m"st !e dee%ly dist"r!in, and decision-makers 0o"ld al0ays hae to 0eih it most an/io"sly. 2"t a %air of key tr"ths a!o"t it need to !e reconi7ed. Thefirst is that the risk of escalation to lare-scale n"clear 0ar is inesca%a!ly %resent in any sinificant armed conflict !et0een n"clear-ca%a!le %o0ers, 0hoeer may haestarted the conflict and 0hoeer may first hae "sed any %artic"lar cateory of 0ea%on. The initiator of the conflict 0ill al0ays hae %hysically aaila!le to him o%tionsfor a%%lyin more force if he meets effectie resistance. 1f the risk of escalation, 0hateer its deree of %ro!a!ility, is to !e rearded as a!sol"tely "nacce%ta!le, thenecessary inference is that a state attacked !y a s"!stantial n"clear %o0er m"st foro military resistance. 1t m"st s"rrender, een if it has a n"clear armo"ry of its o0n.2"t the com%anion tr"th is that, as %ae E has noted, the risk of escalation is an inesca%a!le !"rden also "%on the aressor. The e/%loitation of that !"rden is the

cr"cial ro"te, if conflict does !reak o"t, for manain it, to a tolera!le o"tcome--the only ro"te, indeed, intermediate !et0een s"rrender and holoca"st, and so thenecessary !asis for deterrence !eforehand. The 0orkin o"t of %lans to e/%loit escalation risk most effectiely in deterrin %otential aression entails f"rther andcom%le/ iss"es. 1t is for e/am%le %lainly desira!le, 0hereer eora%hy, %olitics, and aaila!le reso"rces so %ermit 0itho"t trierin arms races, to make %roisionsand dis%ositions that are likely to %lace the on"s of makin the !ier, and more eidently danero"s ste%s in escalation "%on the aressor oli! 0ishes to maintain hisattack, rather than "%on the defender. 3The c"stomary shorthand for this desira!le %ost"re "sed to !e 9escalation dominance9.5 These iss"es are not f"rther disc"ssedhere. 2"t addressin them needs to start from ackno0ledement that there are in any eent no certainties or a!sol"tes aaila!le, no o%tions "aranteed to !e risk-freeand cost-free. Deterrence is not %ossi!le 0itho"t escalation risk4 and its %resence can %oint to no a"tomatic %olicy concl"sion sae for those 0ho es%o"se o"triht

%acifism and acce%t its conse"ences. 6ccident and Miscalc"lation ns"rin the safety and sec"rity of n"clear 0ea%ons %lainly needs to !e taken most serio"sly.Detailed information is "nderstanda!ly not %"!lished, !"t s"ch direct eidence as there is s"ests that it al0ays has !een so taken in eery %ossessor state, 0ith the

ineita!le occasional fail"res to follo0 strict %roced"res dealt 0ith rioro"sly. =ritics haeneertheless from time to time ar"ed that the %ossi!ility ofaccidentinolin n"clear 0ea%onsis so s"!stantial that it m"st 0eih heaily in the entire eal"ation of 0hether 0ar-%reention str"ct"resentailin their e/istence sho"ld !e tolerated at all. T0o sorts of scenario are "s"ally in "estion. The first is that of a sinle rae eent inolin an "nintended n"cleare/%losion:a technical disaster at a storae site, for e/am%le, Dr the accidental or "na"thori7ed la"nch of a deliery system 0ith a lie n"clear 0arhead. The second isthat of some eent:%erha%s s"ch an e/%losion or la"nch, or some other misha% s"ch as malf"nction or misinter%retation of radar sinals or com%"ter systems:

initiatin a se"ence of res%onse and co"nter-res%onse that c"lminated in a n"clear e/chane 0hich no one had tr"ly intended.#o eent that is %hysically


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%ossi!le can !e said to !e of a!sol"tely 7ero %ro!a!ility 38"st as at an o%%osite e/treme it is absurd to claim,as has !een heardfrom distin"ished fi"res, that nuclear-weapon use can be guaranteed to happen within some finite future span despite not

having happened for over sity years5. 2"t h"man affairs cannot !e manaed to the standard of either 7ero or total %ro!a!ility. $e hae to assess leels

!et0een those theoretical limits and 0eih their reality and im%lications aainst other factors, in sec"rity %lannin as in eeryday life. There hae certainly!een, across the decades since A*, many kno0n accidents inolin n"clear 0ea%ons, from trans%orters skiddin off roads to !om!er aircraftcrashin 0ith or accidentally dro%%in the 0ea%ons they carried 3in %ast days 0hen s"ch carriae 0as a fre"ent feat"re of readiness arranements----it no loner is5. 6

fe0 of these accidents may hae released into the near!y enironment hihly to/ic material. #one ho0eer has entailed a n"clear detonation . Somecommentators s"est that this reflects !i7arrely ood fort"neamid s"ch massie actiity and de%loyment oer so many years. ! morerational deduction from the facts of this long eperience would however be that the probability of any accident

triggering a nuclear eplosion is etremely low. 1t miht !e f"rther noted that the mechanisms needed to set off s"ch ane/%losion are technically demandin, and that in a lare n"m!er of 0ays the %ast si/ty years hae seen e/tensie im%roements in safety arranements for

!oth the desin and the handlin of 0ea%ons. 1t is "ndo"!tedly %ossi!le to see res%ects in 0hich, after the cold 0ar, some of the factors !earin "%on risk may !e ne0 o

more aderse4 !"t some are no0 %lainly less so. The years 0hich the 0orld has come thro"h entirely 0itho"t accidental or"na"thori7ed detonation hae incl"ded early decades in 0hich kno0lede 0as sketchier, %reca"tions 0ere less deelo%ed,and 0ea%on desins 0ere less "ltra-safe than they later !ecame , as 0ell as s"!stantial %eriods in 0hich 0ea%on n"m!ers 0ere larer,de%loyments more 0ides%read and dierse, moements more fre"ent, and seeral as%ects of doctrine and readiness arranements more tense. Similarconsiderations a%%ly to the hy%othesis of n"clear 0ar !ein mistakenly triered !y false alarm. =ritics aain %oint to the fact,as it is "nderstood, of n"mero"s occasions 0hen initial ste%s in alert se"ences for US n"clear forces 0ere em!arked "%on

or at least called for, !y, indicators mistaken or misconstr"ed. "n none of these instances, it is acce%ted, did matters get at all near tonuclear launch--e/traordinary ood fort"neaain, critics hae s"ested. But the rival and more logical inference fromhundreds of events stretching over sity years of eperience presents itself once more# that the probability of initial

misinterpretation leading far towards mistaken launch is remote. Precisely!eca"se any n"clear-0ea%on %ossessorreconi7es the ast raity of any la"nch, release se"ences hae many ste%s, and h"man decision is re%eatedly inter%osedas 0ell as ca%%in the se"ence s. $o convey that because a first step was prompted the world somehow came close toaccidental nuclear war is wild hyperbole , rather like asserting, when a tennis champion has lost his opening service

game, that he was nearly beaten in straight sets. Gistory any0ay scarcely offers any ready e/am%le of ma8or 0arstarted !y accident een !efore the n"clear reol"tion im%osed an order-of-manit"de increase in ca"tion . 1t 0asoccasionally con8ect"red that n"clear 0ar miht !e triered !y the real !"t accidental or "na"thori7ed la"nchof a strateicn"clear-0ea%on deliery system in the direction of a %otential adersary.#o s"ch la"nch is kno0n to hae occ"rred in oer si/ty years. The%ro!a!ility of it is therefore ery lo0. 2"t een if it did ha%%en, the f"rther hy%othesis of it initiatin a eneral n"clear

e/chane is far-fetched. 1t fails to consider the real sit"ation of decision-makersas %aes ()- hae !ro"ht o"t.

The notion thatcosmic holoca"st miht !e mistakenly %reci%itated in this 0ay belongs to science fiction.

Accidental launch would land in the ocean$alter 2. %locombe, H.D. Garard Ba0, Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and Senior adisor for the =oalition Proisional 6"thority in 2ahdad, >A-

>) H"ne >C09, De-6lertin& Dianoses, Prescri%tions, and Side-ffectsI' Disc"ssion %a%er %resented at the seminar on and Sctt Sagan has recorded any of the nuclear accidents that have > r6ave nearl&> ta!en "lace# $et none of the has caused any%ody to %low any%ody else u" . In a s"eec6 given tA!erican scientists in 1%(> C. ,. Snw said t6is? @We wit6 t6e certaint& 7 statistical tr$t6> t6at i7 en$g6 7 t6ese wea"ns are !ade'& en$g6di77erent statess!e 7 t6e! are ging t 'lw $". 06r$g6 accident> r 7ll&> r !adness'$t t6e !tives dnt !atter. W6at des !atter is t6e

nat$re 7 t6e statistical 7act. In 1%(> statistical 7act tld Snw t6at wit6in @at t6e !st> ten &ears s!e 7 t6ese '!'s are ging 77. Statisticalfactnw tells us that we are twenty-five years overdue # B$t t6e nvelist and scientist verl


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SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General

and t6e cnditins t6at cnd$ce t "essi!is!. I e!"6asi=e t6e li


5/85


*&'Ws

(# )S and glo%al initiatives solve W+ threats nowatisha! 9-9-11 +artin> Gl'al Sec$rit& ewswire> @0errrist W+D Stri ):"erts Sa&>6tt"?FFwww.gl'alsec$rit&newswire.rgFgsnFnw2(11(%(%%3(."6"H

,resident 'a!a identi7ied c$ntering W+D t6reats as a t" natinal sec$rit& gal s6rtl& a7ter ta t6e W6ite 4$se iss$ed aatinal Sec$rit& Strateg& t6at d$''ed n$clear wea"ns and t6er $ncnventinal ar!s t6e Jgravest danger t t6e A!erican "e"le and gl'al sec$rit&J

Ksee GS> +a& 2#> 2(1(L. Since t6e attac Se"t. L.Asignificant unconventional attac! has not occurred in the last decade for a variety of reasons

%esides %eefed u" doestic and international security efforts %y Washington and its "artners3e4"erts argue.

# No ris! of an attac! -)S onitoring solves terrorisatisha! 9-9-11 +artin> Gl'al Sec$rit& ewswire> @0errrist W+D Stri ):"erts Sa&>6tt"?FFwww.gl'alsec$rit&newswire.rgFgsnFnw2(11(%(%%3(."6"H

6 7n a hoeland security sense > vis-a-vis Se"t. 11Hwe8re %etter off than we were in (>J said 7r!er Assistant4!eland Sec$rit& Secretar& and& Beardswrt6. In "artic$lar> the )nited States has i"roved its screeningca"a%ilities at the nation8s air- and sea"orts for individual or aterial threats > 6e said.Washington

has also greatly enhanced its a%ility to trac! terrorists anywhere around the glo%e> a ca"acit&

highlighted through the+a& !illingofterrrist leader sa!a%in ,aden'& U.S. c!!ands> accrding t Beardswrt6.'servers 7$rt6er 'elieve t6at )#S# efforts to dise%er the grou" have greatly diinished its a%ility 3 andthat of other e4treist organizations3 to successfully acco"lish an attac! t6at incr"rates an$ncnventinal s&ste! Ksee related GS str&> tda&L.

0# Any )S retaliation will %e conventionalSANGE: andS.AN;E:

5FF2(6tt"?FFwww.n&ti!es.c!F2((#F(5F(Fwas6ingtnF(n$


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Willia! . Clar t6e c6air e!erit$s 7 i!!$nlg& at t6e Universit& 7 Cali7rnia> desnMt t6in< t6at 'iterrris! is a seri$s t6reat> rig6t nw. 4e $stwrte a '< n t6e "litics 7 'iterrris! called Bracing 7r Ar!egeddnO In an interview wit6+att ,al!R$ist in +a&> ,r7essr Clar< e:"lained 6w6e reall& 7eels a'$t re"rts 7 a 'iterrris! t6reat?

06e !re I l I t6$g6t> J8ee=> w6at are t6ese g$&s tal J06is w6le t6ingMs a crc


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SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General#

*&o"etitiveness

Alt &auses to co"etitiveness loss ?A# doestic education syste suc!s$nningen and Brwer 1(. Kger and ;ate> 'a!a t Sa& 9ag in Cllege Grads I!"erils U.S. )cn!ic C!"etitiveness.

6tt"?FFwww.'l!'erg.c!FnewsF2(1(-(-(%F'a!a-t-sa&-lag-in-cllege-grads-i!"erils-$-s-ecn!ic-c!"etitiveness.6t!lL

,resident Barac< 'a!awill sa& in a s"eec6 tda& t6at a lag in t6e n$!'er 7 cllege grad$ates i!"erils U.S. ecn!icc!"etitiveness and t6at 6is ed$catin "rgra!s will clse t6e ga". In re!ar 'a!awill 6ig6lig6t a re"rt last !nt6 7r! t6e Cllege Bardt6at said t6e U.S.> w6ic6 nce led t6e wrld in cllege degrees 7r "e"leages 25-3> nw ran S incl$ding "re!i$!s and e!"l&ee cntri'$tins> averaged12>( "er 7a!il& in 2((> accrding t t6e 4enr& 8. ;aiser /a!il& /$ndatin> a res"ected 6ealt6-care nn"r7it. verall> t6e U.S. s"ent 1#.T 7 itsgrss d!estic "rd$ct n 6ealt6 care in 2((%> !re t6an d$'let6e "ercentages s"ent '& 8a"an> Britain> S"ain> Ital& r A$stralia. B$t 6ealt6-care cstsare 7ar !re t6an $st a 6ealt6 iss$e t6e&Mre als an ecn!ic "r'le!. 06e s5(( and 2>((( t t6e stic accrding t t6e ;aiser /a!il& /$ndatin. As a s6are 7 t6e GD,> ttal U.S.

s"ending als 6as!re t6an d$'led ver t6e "ast 3( &ears>t6e Cngressinal B$dget 77ice 6as re"rted. And t6e 77ice e:"ects t6e "ercentage 7 t6eGD, t6at A!erica s"ends n 6ealt6 care will d$'le again 7r! 2((% '& 2(35> reac6ing a w6""ing 31 "ercent. We canMt a77rd 6ealt6 care nw> s 6wwill we 'e a'le t a77rd it w6en it d$'lesO Clearl&> 6ealt6-care csts in t6e U.S. are n a 7iscall& $ns$staina'le c$rse> and $st as clearl&> t6ec!"etitiveness 7 A!ericaMs ecn!& is at sta !an& 7 t6e $nderl&ingstrains n U.S. c!"etitiveness will re!ain $nc6anged. As t6e C/ re"rt 'serves> A!erican '$sinesses la'r $nder a Jtri"le ta:J 7 6ealt6 care csts./irst> t6e& "a& 7r t6eir e!"l&eesM 6ealt6 ins$rance> w6ic6 is s t6e7ederal 6ealt6-ins$rance "rgra!s 7r "r and elderl& A!ericans> via inc!e ta:es. 06ird> '$sinesses als s$'sidi=e t6e cst 7 treating A!ericaMs
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-09/obama-to-say-lag-in-college-grads-imperils-u-s-economic-competitiveness.htmlhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack%20Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://www.collegeboard.com/press/releases/212792.htmlhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Arne%20Duncan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dan%20Pfeiffer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://www.dailyfinance.com/story/skyrocketing-health-care-costs-hamper-u-s-competitiveness/19405879/?icid=sphere_copyrighthttp://www.dailyfinance.com/story/skyrocketing-health-care-costs-hamper-u-s-competitiveness/19405879/?icid=sphere_copyrighthttp://www.kff.org/insurance/upload/7692_02.pdfhttp://www.kff.org/insurance/upload/7692_02.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/2/38980580.pdfhttp://www.cfr.org/publication/13325/http://www.cfr.org/publication/13325/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/29/AR2005042901385.htmlhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/87xx/doc8758/MainText.3.1.shtmlhttp://www.cms.hhs.gov/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704743404575127540906168462.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704743404575127540906168462.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-09/obama-to-say-lag-in-college-grads-imperils-u-s-economic-competitiveness.htmlhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack%20Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://www.collegeboard.com/press/releases/212792.htmlhttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Arne%20Duncan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dan%20Pfeiffer&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_jahttp://www.dailyfinance.com/story/skyrocketing-health-care-costs-hamper-u-s-competitiveness/19405879/?icid=sphere_copyrighthttp://www.dailyfinance.com/story/skyrocketing-health-care-costs-hamper-u-s-competitiveness/19405879/?icid=sphere_copyrighthttp://www.kff.org/insurance/upload/7692_02.pdfhttp://www.kff.org/insurance/upload/7692_02.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/2/38980580.pdfhttp://www.cfr.org/publication/13325/http://www.cfr.org/publication/13325/http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/29/AR2005042901385.htmlhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/87xx/doc8758/MainText.3.1.shtmlhttp://www.cms.hhs.gov/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704743404575127540906168462.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704743404575127540906168462.html


8/85


$nins$red t6r$g6 6ig6er ins$rance "re!i$!s. Gih =osts Slo0 @ro0th. W6ile s!e ecn!ists cited in t6e C/ re"rt see 6ealt6 cstsas nl& !dest drags n internatinal c!"etitiveness> ne 7 t6e 7ew detailed st$dies n t6e t"ic reac6ed a !$c6 !re s'ering cncl$sin. A 8$ne2((% st$d& "$'lis6ed in t6e 4ealt6 Services esearc6 8$rnal 7$nd t6at U.S. ind$stries wit6 t6e 6ig6est levels 7 e!"l&er-"aid 6ealt6care !an$7act$ring> ed$catin and 7inance -- s6wed t6e slwest a!$nts 7 grwt6 'etween 1%# and 2((5 c!"ared t ind$stries wit6 t6e lwest level 7e!"l&er-"aid ins$rance> w6en t6e& were lined $" against t6eir c!"etitrs in Canada. W6atMs !re> t6e e:tra !ne& 'eing lavis6ed n 6ealt6 care isnMteven !a C6ina> and India s"ent $st 15 cents 7r eac6 U.S. dllar s"ent> &et t6e 6ealt6 7 t6e U.S. wr accrding t t6e st$d&. And t6e 6ig6 6ealt6-care csts are indirectl& a77ecting t6e ecn!& as well. A!erican wr


9/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General%

*&loud &o"uting

(# New J"en Networ!ing Koundation solves every internal lin! to cloud co"uting or%andwidththis initiative was announced this wee! after 1 years of research to de"loy itany older evidence should %e disregarded

ar!off> ew Er< 0i!es> 0HF1186n> @"en etwr 6tt"?FFwww.n&ti!es.c!F2(11F(3F22Ftec6nlg&FinternetF22internet.6t!lOsrcP'$sln

Ac li $se s7tware t c!'ine several 7i'er "tic 'ac Ggle> 4ewlett-,ac I.B.+.> 8$ni"er> +arvell> +icrs7t> )C> etgear> 00> iver'ed 0ec6nlg&>Neri=n> N+Ware and Ea6. @06is answers a R$estin t6at t6e entire ind$str& 6as 6ad> and t6at is 6w d &$ "rvide wners and "eratrs 7 largenetwr 3F25F11Dina> @racle ises as /recast> es$lts 0" )sti!ates n Cl$d C!"$ting De!and> 6tt"?FFwww.'l!'erg.c!FnewsF2(11-(3-25Fracle-rises-as-7recast-res$lts-t"-esti!ates-n-cl$d-de!and.6t!l

racle Cr". KC9L rse in asdaR trading a7ter 7recasting 7$rt6-R$arter "r7it t6at t""ed anal&sts"redictins> a sign 7 grwing de!and 7r data'ase s7tware as well as 6ardware added '& t6e S$n +icrs&ste!s Inc. "$rc6ase. ,r7it e:cl$dingacR$isitin csts and s!e t6er e:"enses will 'e % cents t #3 cents t6is R$arter> s$r"assing t6e - cent average esti!ate 7 anal&sts s$rve&ed '&Bl!'erg> racle said n a cn7erence call &esterda&. )arnings n t6at 'asis were 5 cents a s6are in t6e "erid t6at ended /e'. 2> als e:ceedinganal&sts "rectins. C6ie7 ):ec$tive 77icer 9arr& )llisn is "6asing $t lwer- !argin "rd$cts 7r! S$n> acR$ired last &ear> t wring !re "r7it 7r!

6ig6-end 6ardware#A %oo in deand for Jracles data%ases used in cloud co"uting -- the deliveryof software and storage over the 7nternet -- also contri%uted to a 9 "ercent gain in new licensesales3 a "redictor of revenue# L>he future loo!s %right3 M said atric! Walravens3 an analyst atO Securities in San Krancisco > w6 rates racle @!ar


10/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General1(

*&y%er terrorNo ris! of a cy%er attac!- the )S is far ahead of any hac!ersBorchgrave 109[6rna"d de, editor at lare of The $ashinton Times and of United Press 1nternational, Fe!r"ary A*, Silent =y!er0ar' le/is+

$he 2nited %tates is keeping well ahead of potential adversaries in cyberspace& 3ast year, a 2&%& military computer

reached the astronomic processing power of more than ( 4uadrillion calculations per second . That9s A,CCC trillion. To co"nt

to A "adrillion at the rate of OA %er second 0o"ld take )> million years. !nd if 5 billion people used calculators 6 hours a day, seven

days a week, it would take them 5 years to do what 7oadrunner covers in a day. 2"ilt !y 12M for the U.S. nery De%artment9s

Bos 6lamos #ational Ba!oratory, the OA)) million L7oadrunner8 can test the very first fraction of a second in a nuclear eplosion,

as well as etrapolate climate change scores of years ahead &

D-- @ero ris! of cy%er-terroris literally never occurred@arry Boulard, 6003htt%&000.thefreeli!rary.com=y!erterrorism&nolonerfictionQ)2thethreatofcy!erterrorism...-aCACA*(5

#; SU=G TG1#@ Similarly, $ashinton Monthly maa7ine e/%lored the sometimes alarmist talk a!o"t the adent ofcy!er terrorism, and noted, LThere is no s"ch thin as cy!er terrorism--no instance of anyone eer hain !een killed !y aterrorist or anyone else "sin a com%"ter.L

'yber $error is not a ma:or threat, backup1s and security is in place

Bronk, ;edlock, and *allach, 9KC6ris> ;en> and Dan> +a& 3> 06e 4$stn C6rnicle> I/AS0UC0U) Is U.S. v$lnera'le t a c&'er

attaclectronic +earl arbor8 we are informed of a falling sky in cyberspace, which will destroy the financial system,

cripple air traffic control and crash out the energy grid& /isappointingly, this debate is largely informed by rumors,anonymous sources or wild con:ecture without much basis in verifiable fact & So has the %o0er rid !een hacked and can criminal elements,terrorists or aents of the Peo%le9s Bi!eration 6rmy !rin it do0nR Possi!ly. 2"t 0e are a0are of !"t a handf"l of cy!er attacks res%onsi!le for disa!lin a com%"teri7edcritical infrastr"ct"re manaement system. ;n this to%ic 0e are trendin thro"h a %recio"s fe0 data %oints. ;ne %artic"lar case is interestin. 1n 6%ril >CCC, itek2oden, a com%"ter %rorammer, com%romised the com%"ter soft0are manain the 0aste0ater control system in the 6"stralian resort to0n of Maroochy Shire,releasin millions of liters of ra0 se0ae onto %arks, riers and the ro"nds of the Gyatt lectrical power systems )and, for that matter,

oil refineries? are often controlled with %'!/! )%upervisory 'ontrol !nd /ata !c4uisition? gear, and %'!/!

was never designed with security in mind. Des%ite this, some S=6D6 systems are a%%arently reacha!le from the 1nternet. ;thers are sim%lyreacha!le if yo"9re 0ithin radio rane. 6fter *AA, this iss"e !ecame a to%ic of conersation. There are %lenty of %eo%le 0orkin on the %ro!lem. Mean0hile, the

%ro!lem %ersists in fielded e"i%ment.$he reality of our electric power system is that, in point of fact, it is vulnerable to outages in amultitude of ways& %ome of these are not even the result of malevolent acts, such as improperly maintained trees near power

lines& "n fact, some of these vulnerabilities could likely be much more debilitating than the threat presented by cyber terrorism

or cyber espionage. 1n a matter of ho"rs an indiid"al co"ld easily disa!le %o0er flo0s to lare n"m!ers of cons"mers !y ca"sin %hysical damae to italtransmission links, %o0er relay stations or eneration facilities. Moreoer, s"ch damae co"ld take e/tended %eriods to re%air. 6 cy!er attack, on the other hand, 0o"ldlikely !e re%ara!le in a relatiely short %eriod of time, "nless the attack damaed %hysical hard0are. The %oint !ein that there are %ersonnel at %o0er stations thatmonitor critical systems and there are %ersonnel at inde%endent system o%erators that monitor load flo0 %atterns. Th"s, any %ro!lem 0o"ld in %ractice !e identified ery

"ickly and a remedy 0o"ld !e forthcomin. 6s nice as it miht !e to imaine 0e lie in a 0orld 0here ital systems are com%letely a"tomated, they are not. "naddition, most of our nation=s critical services, such as hospitals, are served with their own sources of back-up generation. 6s 0ein Go"ston o!sered in the 0ake of G"rricane 1ke, hos%itals, %olice and een lare data centers remain %o0ered and in o%eration d"rin !lacko"ts or times of larescale %o0er o"taes. Most of "s need not 0orry a!o"t losin hos%ital and emerency serices as lon as those !ack- "% systems remain f"eled and o%era!le. en o"rind"strial facilities 0o"ld !e a!le to contin"e to o%erate in many cases as coeneration ca%a!ilities allo0 them to enerate, and een dis%atch, their o0n %o0er. The key

%oint in this is that o"r %o0er rid is incredi!ly fle/i!le %recisely !eca"se it is desined to oercome many %ro!lems in the interest of relia!ility. 6 more %ressin 0orry

0e sho"ld hae is the ae of o"r transmission net0ork, and the serio"s inestments that are needed for "%rades. Finally, statements indicating a wave of

cyber attacks on the nation=s power systems would be forthcoming if we were to 8go to war8 are simply fearful

rhetoric
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Cyber+terrorism:+no+longer+fiction%3B+the+threat+of+cyber+terrorism...-a0101449564http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docv%20iew.dohttp://www.thefreelibrary.com/Cyber+terrorism:+no+longer+fiction%3B+the+threat+of+cyber+terrorism...-a0101449564http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docv%20iew.do


11/85


$he "mpacts of 'yber $errorism are >aggerated

;oro@ov 09K)vgen&> 8$l&FA$g$st> @06e e:aggerated 7ears ver digital war7are> 6tt"?FF'stnreview.netFB3.F!r=v.L

$he age of cyber-warfare has arrived& $hat, at any rate, is the message we are now hearing from a broad range of

:ournalists, policy analysts, and government officials. 1ntrod"cin a com%rehensie $hite Go"se re%ort on cy!er-sec"rity released at the end ofMay, President ;!ama called cy!er-sec"rity one of the most serio"s economic and national sec"rity challenes 0e face as a nation.' Gis 0ords echo a fl"rry ofloomy think-tank re%orts. The Defense Science 2oard, a federal adisory ro"%, recently 0arned that cy!er-0arfare is here to stay,' and that it 0ill encom%ass notonly military attacks !"t also ciilian commercial systems.' 6nd Sec"rin =y!ers%ace for the th President,' %re%ared !y the =enter for Strateic and 1nternational

St"dies, s"ests that cy!er-sec"rity is as reat a concern as 0ea%ons of mass destr"ction or lo!al 8ihad.' 2nfortunately, these reports are usually

richer in vivid metaphorAwith fears of digital +earl arborsC and cyber-DatrinasCAthan in factual

foundation& =onsider a fre"ently "oted =16 claim a!o"t "sin the 1nternet to ca"se 0ides%read %o0er o"taes. 1t deries from a %"!lic %resentation !y a senior=16 cy!er-sec"rity analyst in early >CCN. Gere is 0hat he said& $e hae information, from m"lti%le reions o"tside the United States, of cy!er-intr"sions into "tilities,follo0ed !y e/tortion demands. $e s"s%ect, !"t cannot confirm, that some of these attackers had the !enefit of inside kno0lede. $e hae information that cy!er-attacks hae !een "sed to disr"%t %o0er e"i%ment in seeral reions o"tside the United States. 1n at least one case, the disr"%tion ca"sed a %o0er o"tae affectin

m"lti%le cities. $e do not kno0 0ho e/ec"ted these attacks or 0hy, !"t all inoled intr"sions thro"h the 1nternet. %o there is informationC that cyber-attacks have been used&C *henE *hyE By whomE !nd have the attacks caused any power outagesE $he '"! may have some

classified information, but very little that is unclassified suggests that such cyber-intrusions have occurred. ;r consider an 6%ril >CC*$all Street Ho"rnal article entitled lectricity @rid in U.S. Penetrated 2y S%ies.' The article "otes no attri!"ta!le so"rces for its starkest claims a!o"t cy!er-s%yin,names no "tility com%anies as ictims of intr"sions, and mentions 8"st one real cy!er-attack, 0hich occ"rred in 6"stralia in >CCC and 0as cond"cted !y a disr"ntled

em%loyee rather than an e/ternal hacker. "t is alarming that so many people have accepted the *hite ouse1s assertions about

cyber-security as a key national security problem without demanding further evidence& ave we learned nothing

from the *;/ debacleE $he administration1s claims could lead to policies with serious, long-term, troubling conse4uences fo

network openness and personal privacy& =y!er-sec"rity fears hae had, it sho"ld !e said, one "nam!i"o"s effect& they hae f"eled a ro0in cy!er-sec"rity market, 0hich, accordin to some %ro8ections, 0ill ro0 t0ice as fast as the rest of the 1T ind"stry. 2oein, 8$l&FA$g$st> @06e e:aggerated 7ears ver digital war7are>6tt"?FF'stnreview.netFB3.F!r=vL

!lthough there is a continuous spectrum of attacks, running from classified memos to nuclear buttons, we have

seen no evidence that access to the latter is very likely or even possible& Figilance is vital, but eaggeration and blindacceptance of speculative assertions are not& %o why is there so much concern about cyber-terrorismCR 6ns0erin a "estion 0ith a

"estion& 0ho frames the de!ateR ;uch of the data are gathered by ultra-secretive government agenciesAwhich need to

:ustify their own eistenceAand cyber-security companiesAwhich derive commercial benefits from popularaniety. Ho"rnalists do not hel%. Gloomy scenarios and speculations about cyber-!rmaggedon draw attention, even if they

are relatively short on facts&Politicians, too, desere some !lame, as they are "s"ally "ick to dra0 %arallels !et0een cy!er-terrorism and conentionalterrorism:often for eo%olitical conenience:0hile lossin oer the ast differences that make military meta%hors ina%%ro%riate. 1n %artic"lar, cy!er-terrorism isanonymo"s, decentrali7ed, and een more detached than ordinary terrorism from %hysical locations. =y!er-terrorists do not need to hide in caes or failed states4cy!er-s"ads' ty%ically reside in m"lti%le eora%hic locations, 0hich tend to !e "r!an and 0ell-connected to the lo!al comm"nications rid. Some miht still ar"ethat state s%onsorshi% 3or mere toleration5 of cy!er-terrorism co"ld !e treated as cas"s !elli, !"t 0e are yet to see a sinificant instance of cy!er-terrorists coll"din 0ithoernments. 6ll of this makes talk of lare-scale retaliation im%ractical, if not irres%onsi!le, !"t also "nderstanda!le if one is tryin to attract attention. M"ch of thecy!er-sec"rity %ro!lem, then, seems to !e e/aerated& the economy is not a!o"t to !e !ro"ht do0n, data and net0orks can !e sec"red, and terrorists do not hae the"%%er hand. 2"t 0hat a!o"t en"ine cy!er-0arfareR The cy!er-attacks on stonia in 6%ril-May >CCE 3triered !y s"a!!lin !et0een Tallinn and Mosco0 oer therelocation of a Soiet-era mon"ment5 and the cy!er-dimension of the 6""st >CCN 0ar !et0een


12/85


*+eocracy

+eocratic "eace theory is a farce3ayne 10.C6rist"6er> ,r7essr V 0 AQ+> A!erican )!"ire? A De'ate> "g. %H

Wilsonian ideology drives the Aerican E"ire %ecause its "ro"onents "osit that the )nited Statesust use its ilitary "ower to e4tend deocracy a%road# .ere3 the ideology of E"ire rests onassu"tions that are not su""orted %y the facts# Jne reason the architects of E"ire cha"iondeocracy "rootion is %ecause they %elieve in the so-called deocratic "eace theory> w6ic6 6lds t6atde!cratic states d nt 7ig6t t6er de!cracies. r as ,resident Gerge W. B$s6 "$t it wit6 6is c$st!ar& elR$ence> Jde!cracies dnMt war

de!cracies are "eace7$l.J13 06e de!cratic "eace t6er& is t6e "r'a'l& t6e !st ver6&"ed and $nders$""rtedJt6er&J ever t 'e cnccted '& A!erican acade!ics.In 7act> it is not a theory at all# :ather it is atheology that suits the conceits of Wilsonian true %elievers-es"ecially the neoconservatives whohave %een advocating Aerican E"ire since the early (99s# As serious scholars have shown3however3 the historical record does not su""ort the deocratic "eace theory.131 n t6e cntrar&> it s6wst6at deocracies do not act differently toward other deocracies than they do towardnondeocratic states# When i"ortant national interests are at sta!e3 deocracies not onlyhave threatened to use force against other deocracies3 %ut3 in fact3 de!cracies 6ave gne t war wit6

t6er de!cracies#

Glo%al +eocracy 7"ossi%le+i4on (Dr. ,atric< Di:n> ,6D /reign ,lic&> @06e 0r$t6 A'$t t6e War Wit6 IraR> 6tt"?FFwww.gl'alc6ange.c!FiraRwar.6t!H

And s we 7ind an interesting 7act? t6se w6 live in de!cratic natins> w6 $"6ld de!crac& as t6e nl& 6n$ra'le7r! 7gvern!ent> are nt reall& tr$e de!crats a7ter all. 06e& 6ave little r n interest in gl'al de!crac&>in a natin 7 natins> in see !re t6an an& t6er> t6is ineR$alit& 7 wealt6 and "rivilege in $r s6rin assciate"r7essr 7 6istr& and "litical science at Carnegie +elln Universit&L Dece!'er 22> 2((1 @06e +&t6 7 De!cratic ,eace 8AI ,ress BIS

4ere we s6w t6at neit6er t6e 6istrical recrd nr t6e t6eretical arg$!ents advanced 7r t6e "$r"se "rvide an&s$""rt 7r de!cratic "aci7is!. It des nt !atter 6w 6ig6 r lw ne sets t6e 'ar 7 de!crac&. Set it 6ig6en$g6t avid !ar e:ce"tins and&$ 7ind 7ew> i7 an&> de!cracies $ntil t6e Cld Warera. 06en t6ere were n wars

'etween t6e!> 7 c$rse. B$t t6at7act is'etter e:"lained '& A0 and 'i"larit&t6an'& an& s6ared 7r! 7gvern!ent. Wrse> t6e "eacea!ng t6e 6ig6-'ar de!cracies 7 t6at erawas "art 7 a larger"aci7ic "attern? "eace a!ng allnatins 7 t6e /irst and Secnd Wrlds. As 7r t6eretical arg$!ents> t6se we 6ave seen rest n i!"la$si'le "re!ises.W6&> t6en> ist6e 'elie7 t6at de!cracies are !$t$all& "aci7ic s wides"read and 7erventO 06e e:"lanatin rests n an ld A!ericantendenc& t sli" and slide $nawares 'etween tw $ses 7 t6e wrd Jde!crac&J? as an'ective descri"tin 7regi!es> andas a ter! 7 "raise--a la'el t disting$is6 7riend 7r! 7e. Beca$se a de!crac& Kter! 7 "raiseL can d n

wrng--r s t6e t6in t6at !st states d nt 7ig6t !st states!st 7 t6e ti!e. 06e wars 'elw are eit6er c$nter-e:a!"les t de!cratic "aci7is! r 'rderline cases .)ac6 islisted wit6 t6e &ear it started and t6se c!'atants t6at 6ave s!e clai! t t6e de!cratic la'el. A!erican evl$tinar& War> 1##5 KGreat Britain vs.U.S.L Wars 7 /renc6 evl$tin Kde!cratic "eridL> es". 1#%3> 1#%5 K/rance vs. Great BritainL X$asi War> 1#% KU.S. vs. /ranceL War 7 112 KU.S. vs.Great BritainL 0e:as War 7 Inde"endence> 135 K0e:as vs. +e:icL +e:ican War> 1 KU.S. vs. +e:icL !an e"$'lic vs. /rance> 1% A!ericanCivil War> 11 Krt6ern Unin vs. S$t6ern Cn7ederac&L )c$adr-Cl$!'ia War> 13 /ranc-,r$ssian War> 1#( War 7 t6e ,aci7ic> 1#% KC6ilevs. ,er$ and BliviaL Indian Wars> !$c6 7 nineteent6 cent$r& KU.S. vs. vari$s Indian natinsL S"anis6-A!erican War> 1% Ber War> 1%% KGreatBritain vs. 0ransvaal and range /ree StateL Wrld War I> 1%1 KGer!an& vs. Great Britain> /rance> Ital&> Belgi$!> and U.S.L C6ac War> 1%32 KC6ilevs. ArgentinaL )c$adr-,er$> 1%1 ,alestine War> 1% KIsrael vs. 9e'annL D!inican Invasin> 1%# KU.S. vs. D!inican e"$'licL C&"r$s Invasin>1%# K0$r


13/85


A' neal and $ssett> 1%%# neal and a&> 1%%#L. 06e res$lts i!"l& t6at deocratic enlargeent is oreli!ely to increase the "ro%a%ility of war for states sincede!cracies are !re li we ai! 6ere t identi7& !re "recisel& t6e cnditins $nder w6ic6 de!crati=atin sti!$lates6stilities.We find thatt6e heightened danger of war grows "riarily out of the transition fro anautocratic regie to one that is "artly deocratic . 06e s"ecter 7 war d$ring t6is "6ase 7 de!crati=atin l!s es"eciall&

large w6en gvern!ental instit$tins> incl$ding t6se reg$lating "litical "artici"atin> are es"eciall& wea elites c!!nl&e"loy nationalist rhetoric to o%ilize ass su""ort %ut then %ecoe drawn into t6e%elligerentforeign "olicies unleashed %y this "rcess. We 7ind> in cntrast> t6at transitins t6at R$ic


14/85


*Econoy>he econoy is resilient ? G+3 e"loyent3 "ersonal incoe3 and inflation "rove# refer ourevidence3 it assues s!e"tics that dont "ut the econoy into "ers"ective#

.ailton3 '>H, %ageworks "nc&, 93Brian> 8an$ar&> 0e:as Sciet& 7 Certi7ied ,$'lic Acc$ntants> @06e United States Will 'e 8$st/ine> 6tt"?FFwww.tsc"a.rgFC$rrentsF)cn!&C!!entar&.as"L

06ere is "r'a'l& s!et6ing in 6$!ans and in ever& generatin t6at !a &$ can 'rrw !ne& ine:"ensivel& as a '$s iness r as a "ersn. 9an vl$!ein t6e c$ntr&> accrding t t6e /DIC and cntrar& t w6at &$ read a'$t t6e credit crisis> act$all& increased last R$arter c!"ared t t6e sa!e R$arterlast &ear. K3L S!ene is getting lans and t6e& are nt "a&ing e:cessive interest rates 7r t6e!. 4w a'$t e!"l&!entO Accrding t t6e B$rea$ 7

9a'r Statistics> une"loyent sits at 1# during the height of the+e"ression3 the une"loyent rate was =#9P# +uring that sae tie "eriod3 G+ was fallingdraatically3 which created a devastating i"act on the country# A!ericans 6ave gd 6earts and e!"at6i=e Kast6e& s6$ldL wit6 t6se w6 are $ne!"l&ed> &et it w$ld 'e eas& t g t 7ar in $r ass$!"tins n 6w t6e wr '$t w6&w$ld we view $r e77rts as "r w6en we dnt R$ite !a incl$ding e!"l&ers and t6e

gvern!ent. ersonal incoe rose last 2uarter c!"ared t a &ear ag accrding t t6e B$rea$ 7 )cn!ic Anal&sis. C!"ared t7ive &ears ag> "ersnal inc!e 6as risen '& 32.1T . )ven cnsidering t6at in7latin was 1.13T ver t6is "erid> "e"le are generall& !ahis is another one of those statistics that can easily get %ent to fit a story# $ouoften hear things li!e L"ersonal incoe fell last onth %y 0PM3 %ut writers tend to leave largerand ore i"ortant statistics out# 7n this case3 wouldnt you %e ore interested in trends overa 2uarter or a yearB using isolated statistics to fit your view is soething that has %ecoeacce"ted and rarely challenged# e:t> t6ere is in7latin 06e in7latin rate !eas$res t6e strengt6 7 t6e dllar &$ 6ld tda& asc!"ared t a &ear ag. >he inflation rate is currently 0#11P# Jver the "ast 5 years3 the inflation rate hasaveraged a%out =#P # 7nflation reains well within control # $et3 would you %e sur"rised to read a storyne4t onth citing an QP Cu" in inflation over the last day3 onthB 7 wouldnt %e . KIrnicall&> t6e ne t6ing a'$tt6e ecn!& t6at is alar!ing 7r! a 6istrical stand"int is $r natinal de't> w6ic6 gets s!e '$t nt en$g6 !edia cverage. We nw we 1(.trillin and 6ave 'ec!e a de'tr natin ver t6e "ast several decades. We nw de"end n t6e gdwill and invest!ents 7 $tside c$ntries> w6ile we

cntin$e t s"end !re t6an we !a%ut analysts ty"ically go too far inascri%ing the fall of the financial ar!ets with the fall of a whole econoy# >he ar!ets are ani"ortant co"onent of the econoy3 %ut the ar!ets are not the totality of the econoy. ne can sa&w6et6er cnditins will wrsen in t6e 7$t$re. 4wever> we 6ave learned t6at the )nited States econoy has %eentreendously resilient over the "ast years and will "ro%a%ly reain so3as lng as t6e str$ct$ral"6ils"6ies t6at it 6as 'een '$ilt $"n are le7t intact. A!ericans are 6ard-wr


15/85


'arnett 9senior anaging director of Enterra Solutions ,,&K06!as> 06e ew $les? Sec$rit&e!ains Sta'le A!id /inancial Crisis> 25 A$g$st 2((%> 6tt"?FFwww.a"rde:.c!Ft6e-new-r$les--sec$rit&-re!ains-sta'le-a!id-7inancial-crisis-3%-'l.as":L

W6en t6e gl'al 7inancial crisis str$c< r$g6l& a &ear ag> t6e 'lgs"6ere was a'la=e wit6 all srts 7 scar&"redictins 7> and c!!entar& regarding> ens$ing cn7lict and wars -- a rer$n 7 t6e Great De"ressin leading t wrld war>as it were. w> as gl'al ecn!ic news 'rig6tens and recver& -- s$r"risingl& led '& C6ina and e!erging !ar itMsinteresting t l< 'ac< ver t6e "ast &ear and reali=e 6w gl'ali=atinMs 7irst tr$l& wrldwide recessin 6as 6ad virt$all& ni!"act w6atsever n t6e internatinal sec$rit& landsca"e. ne 7 t6e !re t6an t6ree-d=en ngingcn7lictslisted '& Gl'alSec$rit&.rg can 'e clearl& attri'$ted t t6e gl'al recessin. Indeed> t6e last new entr& Kcivil cn7lict'etween 4a!as and /ata6 in t6e ,alestineL "redates t6e ecn!ic crisis '& a &ear> and t6ree R$arters 7 t6e c6rnic str$ggles 'egan in t6e last cent$r&.Ditt 7r t6e 15 lw-intensit& cn7licts listed '& Wi '$t '& !st acc$nts t6e "ening cere!n& 7 t6e Beiing l&!"ics was t6e !st i!"rtant e:ternaltrigger K7llwed '& t6e U.S. "residential ca!"aignL 7r t6at s$dden s"i Israel v. IranL are 't6 tied t ne side acR$iring a n$clear wea"n ca"acit& -- a "rcess w6ll& $nrelated t gl'al ecn!ic trends. Andwit6 t6e United States e77ectivel& tied dwn '& its tw nging !ar interventins KIraR and A7g6anistan-'leeding-int-,a $r invlve!entelsew6ere ar$nd t6e "lanet 6as 'een R$ite !dest> 't6 leading $" t and 7llwing t6e nset 7 t6e ecn!ic crisis? e.g.> t6e $s$al c$nter-dr$g e77rtsin 9atin A!erica> t6e $s$al !ilitar& e:ercises wit6 allies acrss Asia> !i:ing it $" wit6 "irates 77 S!aliaMs castL. )ver&w6ere else we 7ind seri$sinsta'ilit& we "rett& !$c6 let it '$rn> ccasinall& "ressing t6e C6inese -- $ns$ccess7$ll& -- t d s!et6ing. $r new A7rica C!!and> 7r e:a!"le>

6asnMt led $s t an&t6ing 'e&nd advising and training lcal 7rces. S> t s$! $"? * signi7icant $"tic< in !ass vilence r $nrest Kre!e!'er t6es!attering 7 $r'an rits last &ear in "laces li +ldva and 9atviaOL *06e $s$al 7reR$enc& !aintained in civil cn7licts Kin all t6e $s$al "lacesL*t a single state-n-state war directl& ca$sed Kand n great-"wer-n-great-"wer crises even triggeredL * great i!"rve!ent r disr$"tin ingreat-"wer c"eratin regarding t6e e!ergence 7 new n$clear "wers Kdes"ite all t6at di"l!ac&L *A !dest scaling 'ac< 7 internatinal "licinge77rts '& t6e s&ste!Ms ac '$t even t6atMs li t6e Wrld 0rade rgani=atin is 7$nctining as it was designed t 7$nctin> and reginal e77rts tward7ree-trade agree!ents 6ave nt slwed. Can we sa& Isla!ic radicalis! was in7la!ed '& t6e ecn!ic crisisO I7 it was> t6at

s6i7t was clearl& verw6el!ed '& t6e Isla!ic wrldMs grwing disenc6ant!ent wit6 t6e 'r$talit& dis"la&ed '&vilent e:tre!ist gr$"s s$c6 as al-Xaida. And l a$stere ecn!ic ti!es are $st as li "lent& 7 e:"erts and"$ndits 6ave attac6ed great signi7icance t t6is de'ate> seeing in it t6e 'eginning 7 Jecn!ic war7areJ and t6e li


16/85


*E

>heir i"act is science fiction- no real threat of Es3 and the i"act would %e containa%leWein%erger -( /reign ,lic& writer> @06e Bge&!an B!'6tt"?FFwww.7reign"lic&.c!FarticlesF2(1(F(2F1#Ft6e'ge&!an'!'O"ageP(>(H

7f the "riary threat is fro a crudely constructed E wea"on launched fro a Scud-ty"eissile3 that sort of wea"on wouldn8t have nearly the ca"a%ilities needed to ta!e out )#S#infrastructure> 6e arg$es. B$tt esti!ates t6at s$c6 a device> wit6 a ne- w$ld 6ave t 'e la$nc6ed !$c6 lwer in t6e at!s"6ere>and t6$s w$ld 6ave !re lcali=ed e77ects. 6 Serious long-lasting conse2uences of a one-!iloton E stri!e

would li!ely %e liited to a state-sized region of the country>J 6e writes. 0r$e> an )+, t6at a77ected even a singlestate w$ld 'e> n d$'t> tra$!atic and disr$"tive> '$t it wouldals%e recovera%le 3 and ore i"ortantly3 fall farshort of a 6continental-scale tie achine#6 7n the end3 advocates for E "re"aration couldend u" %eing their own worst eney# >he unli!ely scenarios they "eddle lend theselves tocaricature. And t6$g6 t6ere are certainl& s!e intellect$al 6eav&weig6ts a!ng t6se w6 6ave warned a'$t t6e e77ects 7 )+, -- li t6e 7r!er 6ead 7 9awrence 9iver!re atinal 9a'ratr& -- critics have derided E defense su""orters forrelying on the li!es of science fiction writer Willia :# Korstchen to hel" %olster their case# 'ytal!ing a%out 6tie achines6 and turning the E %o% into soething that goes %u" inthe night3 those advocating for %etter defenses ris! "ushing the issue further into the arginsof science fiction.

No E threat- not even the ost well-e2ui""ed rogues can a!e the'utt -(E$se7> writer 7r 06e S"ace eview> @06e )+, t6reat? 7act> 7ictin> and res"nse K"art 2L6tt"?FFwww.t6es"acereview.c!FarticleF1553F1H

What a""ears to %e of "articular concern to the E coission is the sce"ter of terroristgrou"s or so-called LrogueM nations carrying out such an attac!. As $tlined '& Dr. ,r&> ne 7 t6e c!!issiners>'e7re a 2((5 Senate S$'c!!ittee n 0errris!> 0ec6nlg& and 4!eland Sec$rit&> @aH n$clear !issile cncealed in t6e 6ld 7 a 7reig6ter w$ldgive Iran> r terrrists> t6e ca"a'ilit& t "er7r! an )+, attac< against t6e United States 6!eland> wit6$t devel"ing an ICB+> and wit6 s!e"rs"ect 7 re!aining ann&!$s. Irans S6a6a'-3 !edi$!-range !issileZ is a !'ile !issile> and s!all en$g6 t 'e trans"rted in t6e 6ld 7 a

7reig6ter. .owever3 as entioned a%ove3 such issiles have a "ayload ca"acity of a""ro4iately(3 !ilograscrres"nding t a cr$de U-'ased war6ead 7 [1 and w6en> t6e Iranians event$all& devel" n$clearwea"ns.

Even the North ;oreans3 who are uch further along in their wea"ons "rogra3 havehad great difficulty reaching even a R5 !iloton yield7r! t6eir ,$-'ased devices in care7$ll& rc6estrated gr$nd-tests>and t6eir 2((% test was liit is not at all a si"le atter3 even for countries with considera%leresources and focused decades-long effort3 to %uild such wea"ons 3 let alone "air the torelia%le delivery systes. As care7$ll& arg$ed '& 86n +$eller in 6is new ' At!ic 'sessin> it is virt$all& i!"ssi'le 7r a terrristcell t 'tain t6e raw !aterials needed 7r a n$clear device and asse!'le it crrectl& t6e!selves e7 22> ". 1#21%H. Even a LcrudeM )-ty"edevice is not all that LcrudeM and re2uires the concerted effort of s!illed scientists andengineers# Any wea"on "roduced %y a terrorist cell would li!ely %e a one of a !ind and wouldhave to reain untested # Kor a terrorist grou" to then ate this wea"on to a %allistic issileand successfully carry out an E stri!e %eggars %elief. As 86n ,i directr 7 Gl'alSec$rit&.rg 6as said> L7t is

Cust very difficult to iagine how terrorists are going to %e a%le to lay hands on a nuclear-ti""edissile3 and launch it and re"rogra it in such a way that it would %e a high-altitude %urst li!ethat #M

And3 any E attac! wont %e %ig enough to atter'utt -(E$se7> writer 7r 06e S"ace eview> @06e )+, t6reat? 7act> 7ictin> and res"nse K"art 2L6tt"?FFwww.t6es"acereview.c!FarticleF1553F1H

7f a terrorist cell iraculously %uilt such a wea"on3 they are li!ely to e4"lode their LcrownCewelM in a si"le s"ectacular ground-%urst that will destroy a large "art of a city3 and not ris!the co"licationsand li i7 all ges accrding t t6eir "lan> causecasualtiesvia $n"redicta'le secndar& e77ects $"n a li!ited "art 7 s!e 7 t6e natins in7rastr$ct$re. >he ris! versus rewardcalculation for %oth terrorists cells and so-called LrogueM states would alost certainly forcetheir hand to a s"ectacular and direct ground %urst in "reference to a unrelia%le and uncertainE stri!e# A wea"on of ass destruction is "refera%le to a wea"on of ass disru"tion#
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/17/the_boogeyman_bomb?page=0,0http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/17/the_boogeyman_bomb?page=0,0http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1


17/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General1#

No one will launch an E- its too ris!y'utt -(E$se7> writer 7r 06e S"ace eview> @06e )+, t6reat? 7act> 7ictin> and res"nse K"art 2L6tt"?FFwww.t6es"acereview.c!FarticleF1553F1H

A state would %e highly unli!ely to launch an E stri!e fro their own territory %ecause theroc!et could %e tracedt t6e c$ntr& 7 rigin and w$ld "r'a'l& res$lt in n$clear r !assive cnventinal retaliatin '& t6e US. 06e )+,

c!!issin als cnsiders adversarial natins carr&ing $t a s6i"'rne )+, attac< t6at w$ld 'e less tracea'le. 4wever> even s> there wouldsoe sall ris! of trace-%ac! that would give the leadershi" in such nations "ause .Whilenuclear forensics are not well enough develo"ed to assuredly ascri%e the origin7 a n$clear e:"lsin>even their current state of develo"ent would3 in soe easure3 dissuade the leaders of anation fro seriously conte"lating such an attac!. /$rt6er!re> the )S certainly has data3 via its+S satellites> n t6e in7rared KIL signat$res 7 t6e rc it ay still %e "ossi%le to identify the country of origin3 which wouldinvite assive )S retri%ution#
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1553/1


18/85


*+iseaseNo chance viruses will !ill us all ? too any die out AN+ edical tech solves

Posner in 5 Judge 7th Circuit Court of Appeals (Richard, , Skeptic,Catastrophe, !", Pro#uest$

Ant6er great twentiet6-cent$r& "ande!ic> AIDS> w6ic6 6as alread& ill$strates t6e i!"rtance t t6e s"read 7 adisease 7 t6e lengt6 7 t6e in7ecti$s inc$'atin "erid. 06e lnger a "ersn is in7ected and in7ecti$s-&et eit6er as&!"t!atic r ins$77icientl& ill t 'eislated 7r! t6e 6ealt6& ""$latin-t6e 7art6er t6e disease will s"read 'e7re e77ective !eas$res> s$c6 as R$arantining> are ta t6e lengt6 7 4INs in7ecti$s inc$'atin "erid andt6e di77ic$lt& 7 trans!issin !a& 'e related 7r> given t6at di77ic$lt&> were t6e vir$s $na'le t J6ideJ 7r! its 6stMs i!!$ne s&ste! 7r a cnsidera'le

ti!e> it w$ld 'e detected and destr&ed 'e7re it 6ad a c6ance t re"licate itsel7 in ant6er 6st. AIDS ill$strates t6e 7$rt6er "int t6atdes"ite t6e "rgress !ade '& !dern !edicine in t6e diagnsis and treat!ent 7 diseases> devel"ing a

vaccine r c$re 7r a newKr newl& recgni=ed r newl& vir$lentL disease !a& 'e di77ic$lt> "rtracted> even i!"ssi'le. ,rgress 6as'een !ade in treating A0DS> '$t neit6er a c$re nr a vaccine 6as &et 'een devel"ed. And 'eca$se t6e vir$sMs !$tatin rate is 6ig6> t6e treat!ents !a&

nt wr< in t6e lng r$n.# a"idl& !$tating vir$ses are di77ic$lt t vaccinate against> w6ic6 is w6& t6ere is n vaccine7r t6e c!!n cld and w6& 7l$ vaccines "rvide nl& li!ited "rtectin. ,arad:icall&> a treat!ent t6at is

neit6er c$re nr vaccine> '$t !erel& red$ces t6e severit& 7 a disease> !a& accelerate its s"read '& red$cing t6e'ene7it 7r! aviding 'ec!ing in7ected. 06is is an i!"rtant cnsideratin wit6 res"ect t AIDS> w6ic6 is s"read !ainl& '& vl$ntar&inti!ate cntact wit6 in7ected "e"le. Eet t6e 7act t6at 4! sa"iens 6as !anaged t s$rvive ever& disease t assail it int6e 2((>((( &ears r s 7 its e:istence is a s$rce 7 gen$ine c!7rt> at least i7 t6e 7c$s is n e:tinctinevents. 06ere 6ave 'een enr!$sl& destaictive "lag$es > s$c6 as t6e Blac< Deat6> s!all":> and nw AIDS>'$t nne 6asc!e clse t destr&ing t6e entire 6$!an race . 06ere is a 'ilgical reasn. at$ral selectin 7avrs ger!s 7li!ited let6alit& t6e& are 7itter in an evl$tinar& sense 'eca$se t6eir genes are !re li w6en "e"le lived in s!all> scattered 'ands> w6ic6 w$ld 6aveli!ited t6e s"read 7 diseaseL> des"ite wider 6$!an cntacts t6at !a ,r7. Genetics V Stan7rd> D)"ide!ic? 06e Wrld 7 In7ecti$s Disease> ". 13L06e tll 7 t6e 7$rteent6-cent$r& "lag$e> t6e JBlac< Deat6>J was clser t ne t6ird. I7 t6e '$gsM "tential t devel" ada"tatins t6at c$ld we w$ld nt 'e 6ere. 4wever> wit6 ver& rare e:ce"tins> our icro%ial adversaries have a sharedinterest in our survival# Alost any "athogen coes to a dead end when we dieF it first has tocounicate itself to another host in order to survive# So historically3 the really severe host- "athogeninteractions have resulted in a wi"eout of %oth host and "athogen# We 6$!ans are still 6ere 'eca$se> s 7ar> t6e

"athogenst6at 6ave attac 7ten in t6e wa


19/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General1%

Dr. Martin =etron, 0ho directs the aency9s diision of lo!al miration and "arantine. $he outbreak ofseere ac"te res%iratory syndrome 3%!7%5 in >CC)

underscored how fast a disease could spread through the world and the need to moderni@e and strengthen

4uarantine measures by pointing out gaps in health workers= ability to respond 4uickly and effectively, Dr. =etron said.


20/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General2(

-A7+SNo Scenario for .7 causing e4tinction ? %urnout3 antiretroviral treatent3 and international

efforts "revent escalation

Kerris (# Deg Gwynne3 h+3 .# E"ideology of .7# htt"HH:EA>EN>AN+ 7>s 7NK,)ENcE JN >.E E"7+E7c# Kortunately3 antiretroviral thera"y is %ecoingincreasingly availa%le to "eo"le in develo"ing countries#Soe health"rofessionals %elieve that treatent itself can hel" eliinate stiga# When treatent isavaila%le andA7+S is no longer considered a death sentence3 ore "eo"le ay %eotivated to see! counseling and testing# ;nowing ones status is ore acce"ta%le when treatent can i"rove and"rolong life# We have seen evidence of this across the 'aylor 7nternational ediatric A7+S 7nitiatives &hildrens &linical&enters of E4cellence Networ!# rior to the esta%lishent of this networ!3 soe e%ers of the counity wereconcerned that the &enters of E4cellence would %e la%eled as LA7+S clinicsM and that failies would %e reluctant to %ringtheir children for treatent for fear of %eing recognized and stigatized# After several years of o"eration in countries

across Africa3 the networ! is "roviding co"rehensive health services to

ore than urope don=t have ''7I receptors& 996nd that9s 0here the story ets interestin,L said Dr.=alin =ohen, research director for =omm"nity


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%mith 6k5KSte"6en> e"rter at 4ealt6 and Science Des< 7r Bstn Gl'e> @A Darwinian view 7 AIDS> +arc6>6tt"?FFwww.'stn.c!FnewsFscienceFarticlesF2((F(3F13Fadarwinianview7aidsFO"ageP7$ll>AD? F3(F(%L

And t6e t6ing is> "eo"le who lac! &&:5 rece"tors a""ear not to suffer any conse2uences # MMSwe have an idealco%ination>J Calvin C6en said. 88.7 needs it3 %ut we don8t# What an ideal target for drug develo"ent# 6 06atMsw6& drug co"anies have develo"ed e4"eriental edications designed to %loc! &&:5 so that .7 cannot

enter cells # C6enMs C!!$nit& esearc6 Initiative is c$rrentl& invlved in a st$d& 7 a ,7i=er Inc. !edicatin> wit6 several "atients enrlled inBstn. 06is and t6er e77rts t $se evl$tin as a wea"n against 4IN are an ac t6e vir$s ceased t 6ar! !n in "art t allw its

wn s$rvival. KS did t6e vir$s t6at attac '& t6e wa&> evlving t 'e less 6ar!7$l s !re 7 its 6sts c$ld s$rvive.L 88.7coing fairly recently into the huan "o"ulation has not had a chance to evolve that way 36 said 86n +. C77in>a leading AIDS researc6er at 0$7ts Universit&.

A7+S cant cause e4tinctionSullivan3 Editor New :e"u%lic3 9Andrew S$llivan> editr 7 06e ew e"$'lic> 9ve Undetecta'le> 1%%> ".

E$ c$ld see it in t6e "a"ers.Alost overnight3 toward the end of1%91> t6e o%ituary "ages in the gay "ress%egan to dwindle. Sn a7ter> t6e official statistics followed.Within a year3A7+S deaths had"lueted( "ercent in Cali7rnia> == "ercent across the countryas a w6le. In ti!e> it was s6wn t6at tri"leco%ination thera"y in "atients who had never ta!en drugs %efore !e"t close to 9 "ercent ofthe at undetecta%le levels of virus for two full years # "ti!is! a'$t act$all& ridding t6e 'd& c!"letel& 7 vir$sdissi"ated w6at 6ad at ne "int 'een cnceiva'le a7ter tw &ears stretc6ed t t6ree and t6en lnger. B$t even for those who haddevelo"ed resistance to one or ore drugs3 the future seeed tangi%ly %righter . ew> !re "wer7$ltreat!ents were 7ast c!ing n- strea!> !nt6 a7ter !nt6. W6at 6ad nce 'een a 6and7$l 7 treat!ent "tins grew t ver twent&. In trials> thene4t generation of A@> "ac!ed a "unch ten ties as "owerful as its original and new3 orefocused fors of "rotease inhi%itor carried with the even greater "roise . It was still ta'> 7 c$rse> t!entin t6is 6"e7r 7ear it !ig6t enc$rage a ret$rn t $nsa7e se: and a new $t'$rst 7 "r!isc$it&. B$t> a7ter a w6ile> t6e n$!'ers 'egan t s"ea A!ericanB$siness 9aw 8$rnal WinterFS"ring> 2(( Social and traditional "ractices create great hurdles to a!ingedicines accessi%let all. 06e availa'ilit& 7 lw-cst antiretrvirals will nt i!"act scial c$st!s. In !an& devel"ing natins3 thereis an incredi%le social stiga attached tot6eA7+Sdisease>which causes those infected to !ee" ithiddenand nt see< testing r treat!ent> 7r 7ear 7 lsing 's> 7a!ilies> and 7riends. 22 )ven "revention "rogras suffer'eca$se7 t6e stig!a assciated wit6 t6e disease. 22# +an& religious grou"s o""oset6e $se 7 condosand 'elieve in a'stinence as t6e nl&acce"ta'le 7r! 7 "reventin. /r t6is reasn and iss$es related t cst> cnd! $sage in !an& A7rican natins is e:tre!el& lw. Alt6$g6 t6e averageS$t6 A7rican 6as t6eir initial se:$al enc$nter at a""r:i!atel& 7$rteen r 7i7teen &ears ld> i7 s$c6 a teenager were t as< 7r cnd!s in an average

clinic> let alne anti-AIDS dr$gs> 6e r s6e w$ld 'e c6astised and tld t "ractice a'stentin. 22 ,ac! of education a%out thedisease is also a contri%uting factor t "e"le nt see Sta77 Writer> 06e atin Kair'iL> > A7ricaews> ve!'er 1> 2(((> ". n". Statistics 2uoted %y ost develo"ent agencies suggest illions of;enyans are sic! and dying# E4"ert o"inion is 2uestioning the authenticity of these figures . A'$tt6irt& "er cent 7 all ;en&ans K. !illinL are in7ected wit6 t$'erc$lsis> wit6 a'$t 1>#(( d&ing ever& &ear. Sevent& "er cent r 2( !illin are

e:"sed t !alaria ever& &ear wit6 2>((( c6ildren 'elw 7ive &ears d&ing ever& &ear Kr #2 c6ildren a da&L. ore than # illion;enyans are infected with .7>with =3 dying every year fro Aids Between 2( and 3( "er cent 7;en&ans are eit6er s$77ering 7r! t&"6id r are carriers 7 t6e disease> 7 w6ic6 a t6ird Kver 1.%!illinL event$all& die even a7ter seehe figures are far uch a%ove the official figures given %y the &entral 'ureau ofStatisticsKCBSL. 0a it is said to %e !illing (35 "eo"le annually>he total re"orted deaths3 fro all causes> '& CBSwere15>5# in 1%%# and (35=0in 1%%. CnseR$entl& this

would ean only a%out 0 "eo"le died fro other causes than Aids in (99he head of
http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/03/13/a_darwinian_view_of_aids/?page=fullhttp://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/03/13/a_darwinian_view_of_aids/?page=full


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.ealth 7nforation Systes at the inistry of .ealth +r. Gd7re& + Balta=ar says of the 2uoted .7FAidscases? J>hese estiates are su%Cect to wide argins of error# >hey are %ased on %lood sa"lesta!en fro "regnant woenattending antenatal clinics in a fewsentinel sites3 all of which are in ur%an areasand assued to %e re"resentative of the entire ;enyan "o"ulation3 which they are not# >heire4tra"olation to non-"regnant woen3 ales and the rural "o"ulation are %ased onassu"tions which have little e"irical foundation.J Until !id t6is &ear> +r. Balta=ar was an e"ide!ilgical 77icer atatinal Aids and S0I Cntrl C$ncil K ASC,L . 4e arg$ed t6at in the a%sence of a "o"ulation or counitysurvey3 these figures cannot %e acce"ted as credi%le# ;enya has not done any# 6S$c6 s$rve&s are ver&critical as t6is is t6e nl& wa& t validate t6e data.J .ealth statistics estiated are ainly done %y the W.J . It is saidt6at a7ter t6e !inistr& 7rwards t6e 7ig$res t W4. 06e latter will t6en s$'ect t6e data t 7art6er !at6e!atical "rcesses> a""arentl& t ta


23/85


Science is a!ing several advances and have even found a way to reverse the deadly i"acts ofA7+S

Gulf +aily News Ke%ruary (13 9K@Gene 06era"& \can c$re AIDS> 6tt"?FFwww.g$l7-dail&-news.c!FStr&.as"OArticleP23212QSnPW9QIss$eIDP31333L

>he world8s largest e4"erient using gene thera"y to co%at the Aids virus has yielded 6aaCor advance36 deonstrating that the techni2ue is %oth %eneficial and safe > scientists said &esterda&.+ata fro an advanced "hase of the test "rocess confirs that the 2uest to use trans"lantedgenes to roll %ac!t6e 6$!an i!!$nde7icienc& vir$s K.7L is valid> t6e& said. +octors recruited he gene encodes an :NA enzye - a s!all !lec$le t6at> lihe goal was to see whether these novel ste cells3 %y

%eing shielded fro .7 than!s to the ri%ozye3 would survive the %odys iune defensesand whether .73 denied a haven for re"roduction3 would retreat. /rt&-eig6t wee


24/85


-'ird Klu>hreat of %ird flu low - )SA7+ "revention and surveillance "rogra has %een a huge success

glo%ally

Krontline9XLAvian Klu >hreat Was :educed %y /9=9 in AidM

htt"HHwww#usaid#govH"ressHfrontlinesHflTCun9H"(T%irdflu19#htlY8$st t6ree &ears a7ter t6e 451 avian in7l$en=a vir$s s"read ra"idl& acrss Asia> A7rica> )$r"e> and t6e +iddle)ast> a vigr$s gl'al e77rt led '& USAID 6asa""arentl& 6el"ed reverse t6e gegra"6ic s"read 7 t6e disease . 06e vir$s nw 6as an ende!ic "resence in nl&7ive c$ntries? Banglades6> C6ina> )g&"t> Indnesia> and Nietna!. 9eading all t6er internatinal e77rts> t6e U.S. gvern!entc!!itted %% !illin t c!'at avian 7l$ gl'all&> incl$ding 53 !illin 7r! USAID. @USAIDs s&ste! 6as "rvede:trardinaril& e77icient weve 6ad s$'stantial "rgress in 53 c$ntries> said Dennis Carrll> s"ecial advisr t t6eActing Ad!inistratr n "ande!ic in7l$en=a. C!"ared t 55c$ntries a77ected '& 451 $t'rea raising t6e "ssi'ilit& t6at it c$ld s!eda& trigger an in7l$en=a "ande!ic in 6$!ans. Since 2((5> USAID 6as wr s$rveillance> res"nse> cntain!ent> ris< awareness> and "ande!ic"re"aredness. 06ese e77rts 6ave increased c$ntr&-level ca"acities t res"nd t and li!it disease s"read . 06ree&ears ag> USAID 'egan wr

detectin ti!es 7ell7r! 12 da&s in 2(( t 7ive da&s in 2((%. S6rter detectin ti!es !eans t6at $t'rea USAID 6as als 'een

wr Cngress a""r"riated new 7$nding 7r USAID t '$ild a gl'al earl& warning s$rveillance and res"nsenetwr< 7r t6e ne:t generatin 7 e!erging "ande!ic t6reats.

>he ris! of utation is e4treely lowEaster%roo! 1. Gregg> visiting 7ellw at t6e Br +a& > 2(( Slate 6tt"?FFwww.slate.c!FidF2112##FH

At t6e sa!e ti!e> a 'ird 7l$ "ande!ic a""ears e:trardinaril& $nli a "ande!ic w$ld reR$iret6ewrris!e451 strain t !$tate signi7icantl&. C$rrentl&451 is nt trans!issi'le 7r! "ersn t "ersn . A 'ird can trans!it t6edisease t ant6er 'ird> and a "ersn w6 is in clse cntact wit6 an in7ected 'ird can catc6 it 7r! t6e 'ird> '$t an in7ected "ersn cannt trans!it t6e

disease t ant6er "ersn. Since t6e verw6el!ing !arit& 7 t6e gl'al ""$latin never c!es int clse "6&sicalcntact wit6 'irds> t6e e:isting451 strain "ses al!st n t6reatas evidenced '& t6e lw 7atalit& n$!'ers t6$s7ar. I7 'ird 7l$ !$tated in a wa& t6at allwed "ersn-t-"ersn trans!issin> t6is w$ld 'e ver& danger$s. B$t t6e dds 7s$c6 a !$tatina""ear lw> as e:"lained in de"t6 6ere. Ani!al in7l$en=as 6ave 'ec!e "ersn-t-"ersn trans!issi'le in t6e "ast. +an& c!!entatrs w6 6avel t6$g6 t6e gl'al ""$latin was signi7icantl&6ig6er in 1%5# t6an in 1%1-1%. 06e 1% 4ng ;ng 7l$> ca$sed '& t6e 432 strain> als '$t again t6e gl'al ""$latin 6ad

increased. KG 6ere and clic< Jin7l$en=a "ande!ics 7 t6e last cent$r&.JL In t6er wrds> t6e deat6 rati 7 7l$ "ande!ic declinedt6r$g6$t t6e cent$r&7ewer a "ersn-t-"ersn


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451 strain w$ld 'e lsed n a gl'e w6ere "$'lic 6ealt6 6as !ade 7$rt6er gains and w6ic6 is !stl& at"eace. 06e "int isnMt t6at anti'itics c$ld 'e $sed against t6e 7l$> w6ic6 is $na77ected '& t6e c6e!ical descendants 7 "enicillin. ItMs t6atanti'itics> vaccines> and !an& t6er "$'lic 6ealt6 i!"rve!ents !a stre"> and sta"6 w6ile dctrs and n$rses d nt cntractt6ese diseases. 0da& t6e !arit& 7 t6e citi=ens 7 t6e wrld are in gd 'asic 6ealt6. I7 a trans!issi'le 451!$tatin 6a""ens> it liJ t6e latest re"rt 7r! t6e United atinsM /d and Agric$lt$re rgani=atin states. KG 6ere andclic< JUnited atins 2((5 6$nger re"rt.JL 0da& an esti!ated 1# "ercent 7 citi=ens 7 devel"ing natins are !aln$ris6ed. 06at 7ig$re is an $trage.B$t it is als 'elieved t 'e t6e lwest s$c6 7ig$re in 6$!an 6istr&. A'$t a t6ird 7 t6e devel"ing wrld was !aln$ris6ed w6en t6e 1% "ande!iccc$rred. And "er6a"s as !$c6 as 6al7 t6e devel"ing wrld was !aln$ris6ed in 1%1-1%. 06e lac< 7 !entin 7 i!"rved gl'al "$'lic 6ealt6 in

disc$ssin 7 'ird 7l$ 6a=ards is telling. ne reasn 7r it is t6at t6e !edia and "liticians 7ten see! $nin7r!ed a'$t "$'lic6ealt6 trends. KX$ic are cancer rates rising r decliningO ;> I gave it awa&.L Ant6er reasn is a lac< 7 'asic $nderstanding 7evl$tinar& 'ilg& r$nawa& genetic e77ects are nt 'served in nat$re 'eca$se nat$ral selectin 6as s"ent ens cnditiningliving t6ings t resist r$nawa& genetic e77ects .06en t6ere is science 7ictin> 7r! ;$rt Nnneg$tMs Jice nineJ t +ic6ael Cric6tnMsAndr!eda Strain> w6ic6 6as created t6e ill$sin t6at ver& tin& a!$nts 7 s!et6ing can instantl& ca$se gl'al catastr"6e. KIn /atal Cntact> nesingle e:"sed "ersn ra"idl& in7ects !$c6 7 t6e ""$latin 7 United States.L /inall&> "re"ster$s !vies s$c6 as $t'rea< and 'est sellers s$c6 as06e C'ra )vent> w6ic6 de"icted an $nst""a'le s$"er-$ltra-"lag$e and w6ic6 Bill Clintn read w6ile at t6e W6ite 4$se> 6ave le7t $r cllective 6eads

s"inning. ig6t nw t6e $lti!ate '< "r"sal !ig6t 'e 7r a "lagiari=ed J!e!irJ 7$ll 7 invented scenes a'$t s!ene w6 cntracts 'ird 7l$ w6ile7inding s$""ressed dc$!ents a'$t 8es$s. 4!!e:c$se !e> I gtta call !& agentY

'ird flu cant utate to huan-to-huan transission'artlett and Kredric! 586n G 'artlett>and Krederic!G 4a&den are !edical dctrsSe" 2(> 5Annals 7 Internal +edice In7l$en=a A K451L? WillIt Be t6e e:t ,ande!ic In7l$en=aO Are We ead&O .Annals 7 Internal +edicine. ,6iladel"6ia?.Nl.13> Iss. "g. (> 3 "gs

4w cncerned s6$ld we 'eO As nted> a flu "andeic re2uires huan-to-huan transission# >hiscurrently sees to %e the Achilles8 heel 7 451. 06ere is ne a""arentl& cn7ir!ed case K1%L> '$t t date> no huangenes indicating reassortent have %een detected in the analyses 7 451 strains and sustainedhuan-to-huan transission has not occurred. Indeed> s!e w$ld s"ec$late t6at>with this uch diseasein "oultry over 9 years3 if a "andeic were to ha""en it would have ha""ened alreadyKL. Als> s!e6ave re"orted serologic evidence of avian influenza anti%odiesK45> 4#> 41(> and 411 strainsL in P to 0Pof huans> s$ggesting t6at 'ird 7l$ in7ectins invlving !$lti"le strains 6ave gne n 7r &ears '$t 6ave nl& recentl& 'een re"rted K3> 2(> 21L.

7f they win it can utate3 then its totally inevita%le'oston .erald 5Bstn 4erald S$nda&> 25 Se"te!'er 2((5 Attac< 7 t6e Bird /l$? ):"erts Sa& ,ande!ic Inevita'le6tt"?FFwww.rednva.c!FnewsF6ealt6F25(22Fattac 6ead 7 c!!$nica'le disease cntrl 7r t6e stateDe"art!ent 7 ,$'lic 4ealt6. 0w !illin "e"le in +assac6$setts alne c$ld 'ec!e ill in si: t eig6t wee(( c$ld 'e 6s"itali=ed and nearl& 5>((( c$ld die. 9ast cent$r& saw t6ree 7l$

"ande!ics - in 1%1> 1%5# and 1%. 06e 7l$


26/85


4ng ;ng Universit& 2uoted as warning of an eerging resistant strain of the virus says he was citingold data3 not new evidence> w6en 6e gave an interview last wee


27/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General2#

-E%ola

:ecent out%rea! a!es cure inevita%leainichi +aily News Ke%ruary (03 9K@esearc6 0ea! devel"s !et6d 7r disar!ing )'la Nir$s> 6tt"?FF!dn.!ainic6i."F!dnnewsFnewsF2((%(213"2a((!(na((#(((c.6t!lL

An international research tea has learned how to deactivate the deadly E%ola virus> allwingresearc6 t6at c$ld ne da& lead t a c$re 7r t6e let6al tr"ical disease. >he tea> led '& Es6i6ir ;awa a "r7essr at t6e Instit$te 7 +edicalScience at t6e Universit& 7 0 has learned how to e4cise one of the virus8 eight genes3 res"onsi%le forre"lication# Without the gene3 the virus can only %e cultured inside s"ecially-engineered cells3a!ing it uch safer to handle and o"ening avenues towards future research# 06e tec6niR$e wasde!nstrated n la'ratr& !ice. 0en in7ected wit6 an $n!di7ied strain 7 )'la died wit6in si: da&s> '$t 15 inected wit6 t6e disar!ed strain s$rvivedlnger t6an tw wee


28/85


->u%erculosisNo ris! of >' s"read ? new vaccine solves ost virulent strands

Science+aily (# Darch (93 (# New >' 'ooster Shows roise#htt"HHwww#sciencedaily#coHreleasesH(H0H(0(1(=5(5#htl #

A 'ster s6t a""ears t i!"rvet$'erc$lsis K0BL resistancein "revi$sl& vaccinated ad$lts> accrding t new researc6 inS$t6 A7rica. 06e st$d& 6as 'een "$'lis6ed nline a6ead 7 "rint "$'licatin in t6e A!erican 06racic Sciet&Ms A!erican 8$rnal 7 es"iratr&

and Critical Care +edicine.J06e wrld $rgentl& needs new> 'etter vaccines against 0B>J said Wille! 4aneassciate "r7essr and c-directr> S$t6 A7rican 0$'erc$lsis Naccine Initiative KSA0NIL. JIt is i!"rtant t test t6e sa7et& 7 t6ese vaccines insettings w6ere 0B is ver& c!!n> s$c6 as S$t6 A7rica.J )ver& &ear 1.# !illin "e"le die 7r! 0B> accrding t t6e Wrld 4ealt6 rgani=atin.

06is st$d& is t6e 7irst t re"rt res$lts 7r! testing an adenvir$s-35-'ased vaccine in 6$!ans.Adenvir$s-35 is attractive t vaccinedevel"ers 'eca$se 7ewer 6$!ans 6ave 'een e:"sed t t6is strain 7 t6e vir$s> c!"ared wit6 !an& t6eradenvir$ses> and t6e i!!$nit& 7r! e:"s$re is t6ere7re less li devel"ed '& Aeras Gl'al 0$'erc$lsis /$ndatin and Cr$cell> was !ade '&wea


29/85

SUDI 12 Advantage Answers General2%

-SA:SNJ ris! of SA:S s"read ? international ra"id res"onse and wireless counication solve

containent

Goddard et al 5# D.9. Gddard> N.C. Del"c6> 8.+. Watsn> a4ealt6 ,rtectin Agenc& Centre 7r In7ectins. +. egan> A.icll> ,rtectin Agenc& rt6 West. 9essns learned 7r! SAS? 06e e:"erience 7 t6e 4ealt6 ,rtectin Agenc&> )ngland.6tt"?FFwww.sciencedirect.c!FscienceO'PArticleU9Q$diPB#34-4;5SN-2Q$serP((5QcverDateP(1T2/31T2/2((QrdcP1Q7!tP6ig6QrigPsearc6QsrtPdQdcanc6rPQviewPcQacctPC((((3(QversinP1Q$rlNersinP(Q$seridP((5Q!d5P7c(c1'('dcc%2#1a3%%cc#cc'71(L

&olla%oration at an international level was fundaental to the "ro"t recognition of SA:S casesthroughout the glo%al out%rea!# 7n res"onse to re2uests for assistance fro W.J and its "artner3 the Glo%alJut%rea! Alert and :es"onse Networ! DGJA:N3 field teas were sent to locations in &hina3 .ong ;ong SA:3 >aiwan3

Singa"ore and ietna to assist with the investigation and anageent of out%rea!s# Given the un"recedenteds"eed of electronic counication3 continuous international liaison through secured we%-sites3eail and teleconferencing was essential to ensure that international and national "u%lic healthagencies disseinated accurate and consistent inforation throughout the out%rea!s# >heglo%al res"onse to SA:S "rovided new o""ortunities for the ); to colla%orate with W.J DGenevaand Western acific :egion3 a nu%er of "u%lic health organisations in south east Asia3 as well asnational "u%lic health centres such as the &enters for +isease &ontrol and revention in the )SA

and .ealth &anada#>he .A has su%se2uently wor!ed with colleagues in .ong ;ong to esta%lish a &entre for.ealth rotection D&. in light of recoendations of the .ong ;ong SA:S E4"ert &oittee :e"ort#0>here was alsocolla%oration with the Euro"ean &oission DE&3 however3 this was constrained %y the lac! of central ca"acity ande4"erience in the &oission# 7t is intended that the new Euro"ean &entre for &ounica%le +iseases will addressthis#=+es"ite good levels of international colla%oration3 soe as"ects3 such as glo%al case re"orting to W.J were"ro%leatic# Soe countries did not contri%ute to the glo%al dataset that was esta%lished to infor and refine evidence-%ased control easures3 and there has %een no systeatic review of su"er-s"reading events that occurred during theout%rea!# >he revision of the 7nternational .ealth :egulations D7.: "ro"osed %y W.J in Oanuary = "rovides aechanis for strengthening early and coordinated res"onses to out%rea!s of international "u%lic health concern#5Staff throughout the .A and the ); +evolved Adinistrations undertoo! secondents a%road with W.J Geneva andW.J Western acific :egion3 which "rovided useful contact "oints for inforation and discussion# >he .A Enteric3:es"iratory and Neurological irus ,a%oratory DE:N,3 contri%uted staff to the ulti-national tea that identified thecausative agent of SA:S as a coronavirus3 SA:S-&o3 within ( onth of the W.J Glo%al Alert %eing issued# >he E:N,

has had su%se2uent involveent in the develo"ent of diagnostic tests for SA:S-&o# >he .A also contri%uted totheinternational surveillance res"onse through the develo"ent of guidelines3 research "rioritiesand odelling activities# artici"ation in teleconferences with W.J Geneva and the E& "rovided "ro"t

access to inforation as it %ecae availa%le3 and was %eneficial to the .A in inforing anddevelo"ing its res"onse# ore detailed e"ideiology3 la%oratory and other wor!ing grou"s were also convened %yW.J focusing on !nowledge and less

Advantage Answers General Samford 2012

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