Advancing Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction · 12/1/2004 · National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

CUAHSI Fall 2004 Vision Paper Cyberseminar Series www.cuahsi.org

CUAHSI Fall 2004 Vision Paper Cyberseminar Series www.cuahsi.org

Dave Dave GochisGochisComing to you from Coming to you from

Boulder, CO Boulder, CO November 10November 10thth, 2004 , 2004

To begin at 3:05 ETTo begin at 3:05 ET

Advancing Coupled LandAdvancing Coupled Land--Atmosphere Atmosphere PredictionPrediction

Welcome to the 3Welcome to the 3rdrd Semester of Semester of CUAHSI CUAHSI Education and Outreach Education and Outreach Distinguished LecturesDistinguished Lectures

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The Presentation can be downloadedFrom www.cuahsi.org

Fall ScheduleFall Schedule

•• Moving Beyond the Theory Impasse in Moving Beyond the Theory Impasse in CatchmentCatchmentHydrologyHydrology

Jeff McDonnell, Oregon State U. November 16Jeff McDonnell, Oregon State U. November 16thth

•• Mountain Hydrology of SemiMountain Hydrology of Semi--Arid Western USArid Western USRoger Bales, UC Merced November 17Roger Bales, UC Merced November 17thth

•• HydropedologyHydropedology and the Earth’s Critical Zoneand the Earth’s Critical ZoneHenry Lin, Penn State November 18thHenry Lin, Penn State November 18th

Go to CUAHSI website for complete calendar, links to papers, Go to CUAHSI website for complete calendar, links to papers, presentations, and discussion forumspresentations, and discussion forums

A TenA Ten--Year Vision for Year Vision for Advancing Coupled LandAdvancing Coupled Land--

Atmosphere PredictionAtmosphere Prediction

Prepared By:Prepared By:National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research

November 10, 2004November 10, 2004

•• Complexity of real world systems far and away Complexity of real world systems far and away exceeds the capacity of a single discipline…exceeds the capacity of a single discipline…

First Steps…First Steps…

•• Winter of 2003Winter of 2003--04 R. Hooper visited NCAR04 R. Hooper visited NCAR–– How could a collaborative partnership be developed How could a collaborative partnership be developed

between CUAHSI and NCAR?between CUAHSI and NCAR?–– HO’sHO’s, computational resources and scientific , computational resources and scientific

networksnetworks–– Priority: begin a more direct dialogue between the Priority: begin a more direct dialogue between the

atmospheric science and hydrological science atmospheric science and hydrological science communitiescommunities

–– Initiated a voluntary effort by NCAR to scope avenues Initiated a voluntary effort by NCAR to scope avenues for interaction, resulting in this 10for interaction, resulting in this 10--year Vision for year Vision for Advancing Coupled LandAdvancing Coupled Land--Atmosphere InteractionsAtmosphere Interactions

Initial Collaborators…Initial Collaborators…

The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAThe National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USADavid J. Gochis, Research Applications LaboratoryDavid J. Gochis, Research Applications LaboratoryGordon Gordon BonanBonan, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Climate and Global Dynamics DivisionEd Ed BrandesBrandes, Research Applications Laboratory, Research Applications LaboratoryFeiFei Chen, Research Applications LaboratoryChen, Research Applications LaboratoryDon Don LenschowLenschow, , MesoscaleMesoscale and and MicroscaleMicroscale Meteorology DivisionMeteorology DivisionMargaret M. Margaret M. LeMoneLeMone, , MesoscaleMesoscale and and MicroscaleMicroscale Meteorology DivisionMeteorology DivisionRoy Rasmussen, Research Applications LaboratoryRoy Rasmussen, Research Applications LaboratoryTom T. Warner, Research Applications LaboratoryTom T. Warner, Research Applications Laboratory

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National CenterNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Camp Springs, MD, USAEnvironmental Prediction (NCEP), Camp Springs, MD, USA

MichealMicheal EkEk

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

–– BackgroundBackground•• The forecasting paradigmThe forecasting paradigm•• Evolution of Land Surface Parameterizations (Evolution of Land Surface Parameterizations (LSPsLSPs))

–– Themes on the TenThemes on the Ten--Year VisionYear Vision•• Critical gains in understandingCritical gains in understanding•• Emerging observation platformsEmerging observation platforms•• Core Model DevelopmentCore Model Development•• Analysis and Prediction SystemsAnalysis and Prediction Systems

–– The Strategy for Achieving the VisionThe Strategy for Achieving the Vision

–– Community ImpactCommunity Impact

Scope of PresentationScope of Presentation

•• What this presentation is not…What this presentation is not…–– Not an attempt to siphon off resources away from Not an attempt to siphon off resources away from

CUAHSICUAHSI–– Not a holistic science review (See previous “Grand Not a holistic science review (See previous “Grand

Challenge Documents”, limited to water cycle Challenge Documents”, limited to water cycle physics)physics)

–– Not just an “Atmospheric Scientists” Vision, we want Not just an “Atmospheric Scientists” Vision, we want to forward the Earth Systems Modeling concept to forward the Earth Systems Modeling concept brought up by brought up by ThyneThyne et al., Oct. 14et al., Oct. 14

•• Explicit emphasis on issues related to weather Explicit emphasis on issues related to weather and climate forecasting (and to a certain extent and climate forecasting (and to a certain extent research which is directly related to forecasting)research which is directly related to forecasting)

(Many concepts culled from review of Grand Challenge documents)

Desired outcomes…Desired outcomes…

•• Understanding of practical achievements at the interface Understanding of practical achievements at the interface of atmospheric and hydrological sciencesof atmospheric and hydrological sciences

•• Improved partnershipsImproved partnerships–– CUAHSI as a very organic movement to forward hydrological CUAHSI as a very organic movement to forward hydrological

researchresearch

•• Foster Avenues for collaborationFoster Avenues for collaboration–– Participation in visiting scientist programsParticipation in visiting scientist programs–– Leveraging on existing community facilities (e.g. Leveraging on existing community facilities (e.g.

supercomputers, community models, Earth Observing Lab.)supercomputers, community models, Earth Observing Lab.)–– Improved infusion of hydrological science into atmospheric Improved infusion of hydrological science into atmospheric

prediction systems and viceprediction systems and vice--versa (via feedback on 10versa (via feedback on 10--Year Year Vision Statements)Vision Statements)

Background sectionBackground section

•• The current forecasting paradigmThe current forecasting paradigm

DecisionSupport

Systems

Background sectionBackground section

•• Evolution of Land Surface Evolution of Land Surface ParamerizationsParamerizations ((LSPsLSPs) as they have been ) as they have been employed in employed in atmsophericatmsopheric modelsmodels

Vision SectionVision Section

•• Goal: to make measured improvement in Goal: to make measured improvement in weather and climate forecastsweather and climate forecasts

–– Need (but poised) to make critical gains in our Need (but poised) to make critical gains in our understandingunderstanding

–– Obstacles:Obstacles:•• MultiMulti--scale complexity (scale complexity (ThyneThyne et al.)et al.)•• Erosion of many long term observation networksErosion of many long term observation networks•• Global and regional climate change and the potential Global and regional climate change and the potential

acceleration of the water cycleacceleration of the water cycle•• Rapid landRapid land--use change, urbanization and largeuse change, urbanization and large--scale scale

manipulation of the hydrologic system (Johnson et al., Nov. manipulation of the hydrologic system (Johnson et al., Nov. 2)2)


•• The TenThe Ten--Year VisionYear Vision

•• Theme 1: Utilization of emerging observation Theme 1: Utilization of emerging observation platformsplatforms

•• Theme 2: Core model developmentTheme 2: Core model development•• Theme 3: Improving analysis and prediction Theme 3: Improving analysis and prediction

systemssystems


•• Theme 1: Utilization of emerging observation Theme 1: Utilization of emerging observation platformsplatforms

–– Advances in weather radarAdvances in weather radar–– SpaceSpace--borne platformsborne platforms–– Probing the planetary boundary layerProbing the planetary boundary layer

–– However, need a rigorous validation effort as However, need a rigorous validation effort as proposed in the RSO Vision (proposed in the RSO Vision (KrajewskiKrajewski et al., Oct. 26)et al., Oct. 26)

Vision Section: On the horizon…Vision Section: On the horizon…

•• Advances in operational Advances in operational weather radar (NEXRAD)weather radar (NEXRAD)

–– Upgrade of the NEXRAD Upgrade of the NEXRAD system to WSRsystem to WSR--88DP 88DP “Doppler “Doppler PolarimetricPolarimetric” (est. 3” (est. 3--7 7 years)years)

–– Unprecedented multiUnprecedented multi--parameter capabilityparameter capability

•• Cloud/rain drop size Cloud/rain drop size distributiondistribution

•• Microphysical characterizationMicrophysical characterization•• Mixed/ice phase detectionMixed/ice phase detection

Spatial distribution of retrieved rain DSDsConvective case: 19:26:46 UTC (E. Brandes, 2004)


•• Hydrological Benefits:Hydrological Benefits:

–– Improved QPE in complex Improved QPE in complex terrain and mixed phase terrain and mixed phase precipitation (30precipitation (30--40% bias 40% bias reduction)reduction)

–– Higher spatial resolution Higher spatial resolution (250m), faster scans permitting (250m), faster scans permitting better resolution of temporal better resolution of temporal and spatial intensity structures and spatial intensity structures critical for runoff partitioningcritical for runoff partitioning

–– Improved depiction of freezing Improved depiction of freezing level (transient snow zone)level (transient snow zone)

–– Improved estimates of snow Improved estimates of snow crystal density (SWE)crystal density (SWE)

–– DSD allows for improved DSD allows for improved quantification of rain drop quantification of rain drop momentum important for momentum important for erosion studieserosion studies

–– Need a rigorous validation effort Need a rigorous validation effort as proposed in the RSO Vision as proposed in the RSO Vision ((KrajewskiKrajewski et al., Oct. 26)et al., Oct. 26)

(E. Brandes, 2004)


•• Emerging SpaceEmerging Space--borne borne Platforms:Platforms:

–– NASA GPM; dual polarized NASA GPM; dual polarized spacespace--borne borne precipprecip. radar, 3. radar, 3--hrly global precipitation hrly global precipitation estimates (est. 2010)estimates (est. 2010)

–– NASA HYDROS; LNASA HYDROS; L--band radar band radar and radiometer to est. near and radiometer to est. near surface soil moisture and soil surface soil moisture and soil freeze/thaw state in nearfreeze/thaw state in near--realtimerealtime

–– NPOESS; integration of NPOESS; integration of earth/earth/atmosatmos. observing . observing platforms with updated platforms with updated technology and improved technology and improved standardizatonstandardizaton

–– Need a rigorous validation effort Need a rigorous validation effort as proposed in the RSO Vision as proposed in the RSO Vision ((KrajewskiKrajewski et al., Oct. 26)

(GPM Rendering, Courtesy NASA)

et al., Oct. 26)

(NASA-AQUA AMSER Soil Moisture, Courtesy NAME Field Data Catalog, 25 Aug, 2004)


•• Atmospheric Boundary Layer Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations:Observations:

–– Improved distribution of inImproved distribution of in--situ flux situ flux networks via national and international networks via national and international programs (AMERIFLUX, FLUXNET, programs (AMERIFLUX, FLUXNET, etc.), fast response sensors for etc.), fast response sensors for nocturnal PBLnocturnal PBL

–– Techniques to mine additional data from Techniques to mine additional data from weather radar: enhanced weather radar: enhanced dopplerdoppler beam beam refraction methodsrefraction methods

•• PBL structures, convergence and PBL structures, convergence and circulation featurescirculation features

–– Unmanned aerial vehicles (Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVsUAVs) for ) for low level field to low level field to catchmentcatchment scale scale characterizationcharacterization

–– Water Vapor Water Vapor DIfferentialDIfferential Absorption Absorption LIDAR (WVDIAL): Unprecedented LIDAR (WVDIAL): Unprecedented spatial resolution of PBL humidity spatial resolution of PBL humidity structuresstructures

•• ~100m resolution~100m resolution•• Moisture advection characterization w/ Moisture advection characterization w/

dopplerdoppler radarradar (Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) of DLR flownon the DLR Falcon aircraft during IHOP 2002, Courtesy Christoph Kiemle et al. of DLR)

Vision Section: Next Generation…Vision Section: Next Generation…

•• Theme 2: Core Model Development: Evolution Theme 2: Core Model Development: Evolution Towards 5Towards 5thth generation generation LSPsLSPs in Weather and in Weather and Climate Models Climate Models

•• Computational capacity now permitting marked Computational capacity now permitting marked improvements in spatial resolution and complexity of weather improvements in spatial resolution and complexity of weather (O 1(O 1--10 km) and climate (O 5010 km) and climate (O 50--200 km) models200 km) models

•• This means that many of the “crude” formulations (often This means that many of the “crude” formulations (often loathed by hydrologists) are now becoming inadequateloathed by hydrologists) are now becoming inadequate

•• The dynamic earthThe dynamic earth--human system is demanding more human system is demanding more complex, spatially explicit, dynamic formulationscomplex, spatially explicit, dynamic formulations


•• Key areas “ripe” for improvement:Key areas “ripe” for improvement:–– Improvement of soil hydrologyImprovement of soil hydrology

•• Move from 1Move from 1--d vertical formulations to 3d vertical formulations to 3--d spatially interactive d spatially interactive formulationsformulations

•• More sophisticated soil representation (variable depth, More sophisticated soil representation (variable depth, varying texture with depth) varying texture with depth)

•• Improved treatment of plant root function including dynamic Improved treatment of plant root function including dynamic or ‘plantor ‘plant--growth’ formulationsgrowth’ formulations

•• Areas where hydrologists can make significant Areas where hydrologists can make significant contributions (Newman et al., Johnson et al.)contributions (Newman et al., Johnson et al.)

(Gochis and Chen, 2004)


•• Key areas “ripe” for improvement:Key areas “ripe” for improvement:

–– SnowpackSnowpack is a principal landis a principal land--surface forcing surface forcing mechanism on intermechanism on inter--seasonal climate variabilityseasonal climate variability

–– Improvement of snow processesImprovement of snow processes

•• Improvements in Improvements in subgridsubgrid representation of patchy snow representation of patchy snow cover, and snow water equivalent especially in regions of cover, and snow water equivalent especially in regions of complex terraincomplex terrain

•• Better representation of structural features of Better representation of structural features of snowpackssnowpacks to to improve energy budgets and ablationimprove energy budgets and ablation

•• Utilize emerging remote sensing platforms to improve Utilize emerging remote sensing platforms to improve representation of representation of snowpacksnowpack--precipitate interactionsprecipitate interactions

•• Areas where hydrologists can make significant Areas where hydrologists can make significant contributions (see Bales et al., Nov. 17)contributions (see Bales et al., Nov. 17)


•• Key areas “ripe” for improvement:Key areas “ripe” for improvement:–– Improvement of land cover heterogeneity & complexityImprovement of land cover heterogeneity & complexity

•• With regard to With regard to LSPsLSPs, we need to begin to move beyond the , we need to begin to move beyond the statistical representation of land surface heterogeneity and begstatistical representation of land surface heterogeneity and begin to in to incorporate methodologies to deal with complex organizational incorporate methodologies to deal with complex organizational states of land surface conditions (particularly in complex terrastates of land surface conditions (particularly in complex terrain in regions)regions)

•• Relate these states and their respective scales to their influenRelate these states and their respective scales to their influence on ce on atmospheric phenomena, in particular precipitation atmospheric phenomena, in particular precipitation initiation/persistence and droughtinitiation/persistence and drought

•• Improved sophistication in representation of vegetation structurImproved sophistication in representation of vegetation structure e and dynamics as critical linkage to and dynamics as critical linkage to ecohydrologicalecohydrological/Earth system /Earth system functionfunction

•• Areas where hydrologists can make significant contributions Areas where hydrologists can make significant contributions (Newman et al.)(Newman et al.)


•• Key areas “ripe” for improvement:Key areas “ripe” for improvement:–– Improvement of interaction between the land surface Improvement of interaction between the land surface

and the Planetary Boundary Layerand the Planetary Boundary Layer

•• Continue defining the role of land surface states and fluxes Continue defining the role of land surface states and fluxes on PBL evolution and the initiation of warm season on PBL evolution and the initiation of warm season convection (still a vexing forecast problem at many scales)convection (still a vexing forecast problem at many scales)

•• Better assimilate emerging PBL data sources (e.g. WVDIAL, Better assimilate emerging PBL data sources (e.g. WVDIAL, Doppler refractivity) into operational analysesDoppler refractivity) into operational analyses

•• Must improve understanding and representation of nocturnal, Must improve understanding and representation of nocturnal, stably stratified near surface regimesstably stratified near surface regimes

•• Admittedly, somewhat less obvious areas where Admittedly, somewhat less obvious areas where hydrologists can make significant contributions but need hydrologists can make significant contributions but need to tap hydrologists perspective on surface processesto tap hydrologists perspective on surface processes

Vision Section: Better ForecastsVision Section: Better Forecasts

•• Theme 3: Improvement of Operational Analysis Theme 3: Improvement of Operational Analysis and Prediction Systemsand Prediction Systems–– Transferring increased observational capacity into an Transferring increased observational capacity into an

improved predictive capacity is not trivialimproved predictive capacity is not trivial–– Land Data Assimilation Systems Land Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS; mentioned briefly by (LDAS; mentioned briefly by

KrajewskiKrajewski et al., Oct. 28)et al., Oct. 28)

Initial conditions forforecast runObserved

Met. Forcing

Precip.Temp.HumidityRadiationWindPressure

‘Offline’ Land Surface

Parameterization

(w/, w/out cost functions)

(Images Courtesy: http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/)


•• NASA/NCEP NLDASNASA/NCEP NLDAS--EE

•• NASA LIS now run at 1km spatial resolution…(Image Courtesy: http://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/)

NASA LIS now run at 1km spatial resolution…


•• NASA LIS now run at 1km spatial resolution…NASA LIS now run at 1km spatial resolution…

–– Need to advance scaleNeed to advance scale--appropriate appropriate LSPsLSPs to serve in this new to serve in this new capacitycapacity

–– Need to find methods to assimilate additional hydrologic Need to find methods to assimilate additional hydrologic information:information:

•• Soil moisture/brightness temperature, vegetation water contentSoil moisture/brightness temperature, vegetation water content•• Near surface humidity structuresNear surface humidity structures•• Ground water/aquifer conditionsGround water/aquifer conditions•• StreamflowStreamflow (or stage)(or stage)

–– Effective assimilation of these data will offer additional Effective assimilation of these data will offer additional constraints on modeled water and energy budgetsconstraints on modeled water and energy budgets

–– Emergence of 5Emergence of 5thth generation generation LSPsLSPs is necessary is necessary


•• Theme 3: Improvement of Operational Analysis Theme 3: Improvement of Operational Analysis and Prediction Systemsand Prediction Systems

–– Likely continued application of Likely continued application of ShuklaShukla staircasestaircase–– Coupled Weather and Climate PredictionCoupled Weather and Climate Prediction

•• ‘‘CommunitizationCommunitization’ of numerical models’ of numerical models–– Handful of leading weather and climate modelsHandful of leading weather and climate models–– Open, reasonably wellOpen, reasonably well--documented software architecturesdocumented software architectures–– Often have community working groups and user supportOften have community working groups and user support–– Framework fosters widespread evaluation and developmentFramework fosters widespread evaluation and development

•• Similar consolidation in the LSP community (??? in Similar consolidation in the LSP community (??? in watershed models)watershed models)


–– Similar consolidation in the LSP communitySimilar consolidation in the LSP community

•• Opportunity for hydrologists to take advantage of LSP Opportunity for hydrologists to take advantage of LSP ‘‘communitizationcommunitization’’ and contribute to operational forecasting and contribute to operational forecasting systems:systems:

–– Testing, verifying and improving complex terrain processes Testing, verifying and improving complex terrain processes (snow processes, vegetation, soil hydrology, groundwater, etc.) (snow processes, vegetation, soil hydrology, groundwater, etc.)

–– Implementing new and accepted methods from watershedImplementing new and accepted methods from watershed--catchmentcatchment scale modelsscale models

–– Improve physical representation of key Improve physical representation of key ecohydrologicalecohydrologicalprocessesprocesses

–– Improve methods in dealing with prediction uncertainty (e.g. Improve methods in dealing with prediction uncertainty (e.g. ensemble predictions)ensemble predictions)

Strategy for Achieving the VisionStrategy for Achieving the Vision

•• Statement: Statement: Recognizing the importance of improving the Recognizing the importance of improving the representation of landrepresentation of land--surface physics in coupled landsurface physics in coupled land--atmosphere atmosphere modeling systems, we propose a large, multimodeling systems, we propose a large, multi--institutional institutional collaborative effort aimed at facilitating; collaborative effort aimed at facilitating;

1) the development, evaluation and implementation of land1) the development, evaluation and implementation of land--surface surface parameterizations in weather and climate forecast systems,parameterizations in weather and climate forecast systems,

2) the evaluation of emerging data streams, 2) the evaluation of emerging data streams, 3) the design and construction of efficient land data assimilati3) the design and construction of efficient land data assimilation on

systems and systems and 4) an education and outreach component to the community for 4) an education and outreach component to the community for

improving the timely adoption of communityimproving the timely adoption of community--based modeling systems.based modeling systems.


•• Element 1: Via community workshops, conference Element 1: Via community workshops, conference symposia, vision papers, etc. develop a prioritized list of symposia, vision papers, etc. develop a prioritized list of common modeling frameworks and data standards for common modeling frameworks and data standards for supporting crosssupporting cross--discipline, landdiscipline, land--atmosphere interaction atmosphere interaction researchresearch

•• Explicit purpose of developing common methodologies and tools Explicit purpose of developing common methodologies and tools (e.g. language) between different communities(e.g. language) between different communities

•• Provide technologically advantageous pathways to increase Provide technologically advantageous pathways to increase participation by other earth/hydrological scientists in LSP participation by other earth/hydrological scientists in LSP developmentdevelopment

•• Leverage off existing CUAHSI HIS, HSC efforts and numerous Leverage off existing CUAHSI HIS, HSC efforts and numerous agency programs, NSF Science and Tech. Centersagency programs, NSF Science and Tech. Centers


•• Element 2: Develop a community LSP Element 2: Develop a community LSP testbedtestbedfacility to provide computational, scientific and facility to provide computational, scientific and logistical support for landlogistical support for land--atmosphere interaction atmosphere interaction researchresearch

•• Broadly the facility should:Broadly the facility should:•• Leverage on community architectures defined Leverage on community architectures defined

under Element 1under Element 1•• Foster community guidelines for code Foster community guidelines for code

enhancements, testing and diagnostic metricsenhancements, testing and diagnostic metrics


•• Element 2: Development of Element 2: Development of a community LSP testa community LSP test--bed bed facilityfacility

–– RapidlyRapidly entrain promising entrain promising research findings into research findings into LSPsLSPsused in operational used in operational prediction toolsprediction tools

–– Support development and Support development and testing of the next testing of the next generation of landgeneration of land--data data assimilation systemsassimilation systems

–– Assess the impact of Assess the impact of emerging data streams on emerging data streams on diagnostic analyses and diagnostic analyses and prediction systems prediction systems (compliment RSO, (compliment RSO, KrajewskiKrajewski et al.)

Hydrological, human and earth

systems research

Weather and climateforecasting operations,impacts assessments

and global changemitigation

DecisionSupport

Systems

Community LSP Test-bedFacility

et al.)


•• Element 3: In conjunction with the LSP testElement 3: In conjunction with the LSP test--bed facility bed facility create a community education and outreach support create a community education and outreach support program for operational and research personnel to foster program for operational and research personnel to foster promulgation of models and research to operational promulgation of models and research to operational hydrological and meteorological communitieshydrological and meteorological communities

–– To ensure success, need to establish mechanisms for user To ensure success, need to establish mechanisms for user support and transferability of data and models to the support and transferability of data and models to the research communityresearch community

•• Periodic data and model tutorialsPeriodic data and model tutorials•• Visiting scientists Visiting scientists •• Graduate student internshipsGraduate student internships

Linkages to Proposed CUAHSI Program ElementsLinkages to Proposed CUAHSI Program Elements

•• Hydrologic Observatories (Hydrologic Observatories (HOsHOs))

•• Being realistic, the scale or extent of most of the proposed Being realistic, the scale or extent of most of the proposed HOsHOs is small compared to those in typical forecasting is small compared to those in typical forecasting operationsoperations

•• Data from the Data from the HOsHOs will be invaluable in many offline studies will be invaluable in many offline studies to improve LSP physics as well as limited very hito improve LSP physics as well as limited very hi--res res forecasting experiments (e.g. studying the physics of forecasting experiments (e.g. studying the physics of orographicorographic precipitation events)precipitation events)

•• HOsHOs also provide a critical opportunity to study the human also provide a critical opportunity to study the human impact on localimpact on local--regional hydrometeorological processes (e.g. regional hydrometeorological processes (e.g. precipprecip. initiation, micro. initiation, micro--climates, rainfallclimates, rainfall--runoff, etc.)runoff, etc.)


•• Hydrologic Information SystemsHydrologic Information Systems•• Additional conduit for merging atmospheric and hydrologic Additional conduit for merging atmospheric and hydrologic

data streamsdata streams•• Community LSP testCommunity LSP test--bed facility provides an operations bed facility provides an operations

oriented venue for evaluating new data sets as well as oriented venue for evaluating new data sets as well as diagnostic tools used in forecastingdiagnostic tools used in forecasting

•• Hydrologic Measurement Technologies FacilityHydrologic Measurement Technologies Facility•• LSP testLSP test--bed provides a conduit for integrating novel bed provides a conduit for integrating novel

observations into operation data assimilation algorithmsobservations into operation data assimilation algorithms•• Feedback between the testFeedback between the test--bed and the HMTF should also bed and the HMTF should also

be beneficial to instrumentation development effortsbe beneficial to instrumentation development efforts


•• Hydrologic Synthesis CenterHydrologic Synthesis Center

•• Most comprehensive of all linkagesMost comprehensive of all linkages•• LSP testLSP test--bed serves a principal role of the HSC by rapidly bed serves a principal role of the HSC by rapidly

transferring hydrological research findings into operationstransferring hydrological research findings into operations•• Strong links to weather and climate communities will ensure Strong links to weather and climate communities will ensure

that promising research is infused into data assimilation and that promising research is infused into data assimilation and prediction systemsprediction systems

•• Facility will also foster increased collaboration between Facility will also foster increased collaboration between atmoatmo. . and hydro. research communitiesand hydro. research communities

•• Provides a framework for testing more complex, integrated Provides a framework for testing more complex, integrated earthearth--systems components on forecast problemssystems components on forecast problems

Community ImpactCommunity Impact•• Foster better integration of emerging elements Foster better integration of emerging elements

of hydrological research for the benefit of of hydrological research for the benefit of improved weather and climate forecastsimproved weather and climate forecasts

•• Enable an improved elucidation of terrestrial Enable an improved elucidation of terrestrial atmospheric linkages which serve as critical atmospheric linkages which serve as critical biological and chemical pathwaysbiological and chemical pathways

•• Community LSP testCommunity LSP test--bed facility seeks to bed facility seeks to streamline integration of new science and streamline integration of new science and emerging observations into operational data emerging observations into operational data assimilation and prediction systemsassimilation and prediction systems

•• Merged or common data structures between Merged or common data structures between atmospheric and hydrological science atmospheric and hydrological science promises to revolutionize accessibility among promises to revolutionize accessibility among subsub--disciplinesdisciplines

Hydrological, human and earth

systems research

Weather and climateforecasting operations,impacts assessments

and global changemitigation

Community LSP test-bedfacility

The EndThe End

Advancing Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction · 12/1/2004 · National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

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