Advanced technologies – new developments and economic ...

Advanced technologies new Advanced technologies – new developments and economic

feasibility for Indiafeasibility for India

Lesley SlossPrincipal Environmental Consultant

IEA Clean Coal CentreIEA Clean Coal CentreInternational Conference on Coal Based Power:

Confronting Environmental ChallengesNew Delhi, 17-19th March 2016New Delhi, 17 19 March 2016

What does the IEA Clean Coal Centre do?

• Our output includes:

• comprehensive assessment reports on all aspects of clean coal technology

W bi• Webinars

• technical workshops on clean coal issues

• Clean Coal Technologies Conference

C it b ildi ti iti d d t ti j t i • Capacity building activities and demonstration projects in developing countries with UNEP and US State Department

www iea coal orgwww.iea-coal.org

Energy demand will rise but policies determine emissions growth

World primary energy demand & CO2 emissions by scenario

15 000

20 000

Mtoe

48 t

Primary energy demand:

New Policies

Current PoliciesScenario

10 000

15 000

32

48 Gt

( h )

New PoliciesScenario450 Scenario

5 000 16

CO2 emissions (right axis):

New Policies

Current PoliciesScenario

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Scenario450 Scenario

While global energy demand increases in all scenarios, government policies playa key role in dictating the degree of growth & decoupling with emissions levels

A 2 °C pathway is still some further efforts away

40Gt

32

36Baseline

Energy efficiency

Fuel & technology

24

28 17.9 Gt

gyswitching in end‐uses

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

20

24

450 ScenarioCCS

Other

162010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies & technologies; technology innovation and RD&D will be key to

achieving the longer-term goal

Asia drives global coal demand higher

Evolution of coal demand in key regions

Rest of Asia

Southeast AsiaIndia

200

300

400

(100

= 2013)

Rest of Asia

100

200

Index (

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

(100

= 2013)

100

150

200

Japan and KoreaChina

Index 50

OECD EuropeUnited StatesJapan and Korea

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Coal use in OECD countries peaked in 2007, so future growth hinges critically on the power sector in emerging economies, especially India, Southeast Asia & China

INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK

© OEC

D/IEA 20

15

India in a fast-moving energy landscape

Energy at the heart of India’s drive for development & gy pmodernisation– 18% of the world’s population in India use only 6% of its

energy; scope for further growth is enormousenergy; scope for further growth is enormous

– Domestic reform efforts gain speed, but one in five remains without electricity

India: expanding energy demand led by coal

Primary energy demand in India by fuel

2%

Coal 24%

2%

33%34%Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

44%

1%

24%

25%5%1%

Biomass

Other renewables

23%

6%

2000441 Mtoe

2013775 Mtoe

Almost three‐quarters of Indian energy demand is met by fossil fuels, a share that has increased since 2000 notably because of a rapid rise in coal consumption

Coal remains the backboneof India’s power sector

Total electricity generation in India by fuel

1 000

1 200

TWh Other

renewablesBioenergyHydro

600

800

HydroNuclearGasOilCoal

200

400

Coal

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Coal makes up by far the largest share of power generation,but renewables are playing an increasingly important role

Efficiency of fossil fuel plants 2009-2011

A worsening air quality in India’s cities

Average annual particulate matter concentration in selected cities in India

140

160

μg/m

3 Delhi

80

100

120

40

60

80

HyderabadMumbai

ChennaiBangalore

National guideline(40 μg/m3 annual mean)

20

(40 μg/m3 annual mean)

WHO guideline(10 μg/m3 annual mean)

Rising fossil fuel combustion for power, industry & transport has led to low air quality in urban centres; use of solid biomass for cooking is also a major health issue

Renewables chart a new path to power in India

Installed power generation capacity in India by source

Change in global solar PV capacity in India by source

1 000

GW

100 200 300 400 500

Renewables

GW

2014

solar PV capacity 2014‐2040

600

800

G

European Union

AfricaMiddle East

Japan

Southeast Asia

Renewables

Coal

Gas

Additionalto 2040

HydroOf which:

200

400

China

India

United States Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Other

Solar PV

China Oilrenewables

Renewables, led by solar and wind power, lead the way in India’s powergeneration capacity additions, increasing the need for a more resilient grid

India: adding renewables for diversification

Renewable sources of power generation capacity in India

400

500

GW

40%

50% BioenergyWindCSP

300 30%

Solar PV

Hydro

Share of renewablein total (right axis)

100

200

10%

20%in total (right axis)

2014 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Renewables account for half of all new power generating capacity,increasing their share from 28% in 2013 to more than 40% by 2040

India: a huge commitment of capital

Cumulative investment in energy supply in India 2015‐2040

Coal7%Gas

$0.7 trillion

8%

Oil10%

$2.1 trillion

Power75%

�Mobilising �7 lakh crore per year in energy supply investment is a constant challenge for Indian policy & regulation, but encouraging early signs are visible

The importance of HELE technologies

High Efficiency, Low Emissions (HELE) technologies:

• Savings of 2.25 Gt carbon dioxide annually if all of the world’s coal-fired power plants (with an average reported operating efficiency of 33%) were upgraded reported operating efficiency of 33%) were upgraded or replaced with state-of-the-art HELE units operating at an efficiency of 45%.

• This figure is greater than the current total carbon dioxide emissions of India, and corresponds to approximately 19% of the total annual emissions app o ate y 9% o t e tota a ua e ss o sfrom the power sector globally

Super-critical boiler

SC, USC and AUSC

Potential carbon dioxide savings from HELE technologies

•Efficiency

Subcritical

Efficiency 35%

•5.39 MtCO2=100

Supercritical

•Efficiency 40%

•4.70 MtCO2=87

Ultra Ultra supercritical

(USC)

•Efficiency 43%

•4.35 Mt

CO2=81ExampleAn 800 MWe power station boiler burning hard coal and operating at a

Advanced USC

Advanced USC

•Efficiency 50%

•3.76 Mt

CO2=70

burning hard coal and operating at a capacity factor of 80% will generate 6TWh electricity annually and emit the following quantities of carbon dioxide, depending on its steam cycle

(AUSC) conditions and corresponding efficiency (HHV).

Ultra-supercritical – Shanghai Waigaoqiao

By the end of 2012, the actual operation performances were:(1) Annual average load rate: 81%(2) Annual average net coal consumption (including FGD & SCR)：276 gce/kWh(3) Annual average net efficiency (including FGD & SCR)：44.5%(4) If th t ffi i i t d i t d i diti (f ll l d) th t ffi i (4) If the average net efficiency is converted into design conditions (full load), the net efficiency is : 46.5% (Measured net efficiency in 2013 is 46.7%)(5) Annual average emissions(2013data):

Dust: 11.63mg/m3;SO2: 17.71mg/m3;NOx: 27.25mg/m3

(6) Self power consumption rate (2013data):2.0% (6) Self power consumption rate (2013data):2.0%

What can be achieved by phasing out subcritical What can be achieved by phasing out subcritical coal power in India and moving to SC, USC, and AUSC?

…. And what are the costs?

HELE upgrade path through phased plant retirement

200000

250000

300000

350000

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

acity

MWe

y de

mand (TWh)

AUSC

Ultra supercritical

Base CaseExisting coal fleet with additional USC to meet

0

50000

100000

150000

0

200

400

600

800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Installed capa

CO2 (M

t), Electricity Supercritical

Subcritical

Electricity demand

CO2 emissions

gdemand (if required)

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Installed capacity MWe

(Mt), Electricity

dem

and (TWh)

AUSC

Ultra supercritical

Supercritical

Subcritical

Electricity demand

CO2 emissions

50 year retirement scenarioReview in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Retire capacity over 50 years old and replace with

0

50000

100000

0

200

400

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

CO2 CO2 emissions

3500001,800

capacity over 50 years old and replace with USC

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Installed capacity MWe

CO2 (M

t), Electricity

dem

and (TWh)

AUSC

Ultra supercritical

Supercritical

Subcritical

Electricity demand

CO2 emissions

25 year retirement scenarioReview in 2020, 2030 and 2040. Retire capacity over 25 years old and replace with USC in 2020, AUSC in 2030 and 2040

0

50000

0

200

400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Spreadsheet modelling

India – 25 year retirement scenario, 2015 - 2040

350000

1 600

1,800

250000

300000

1 200

1,400

1,600

2000001,000

1,200

ed ca

pacity MWe

ectricity dem

and (TWh)

AUSC

Ultra supercritical

Supercritical

Subcritical

100000

150000

600

800

Installe

CO2 (M

t), Ele

Electricity demand

CO2 emissions

50000200

400

002015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

India – 25 year retirement scenario, 2015 – 2040CCS emissions trend line (85% capture)

350000

1 600

1,800

250000

300000

1 200

1,400

1,600

2000001,000

1,200

ed ca

pacity MWe

ectricity dem

and (TWh)

AUSC

Ultra supercritical

Supercritical

Subcritical

El t i it d d

100000

150000

600

800

Installe

CO2 (M

t), Ele Electricity demand

CO2 emissions

With CCS

50000200

400

002015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Key message for India

India has the fastest growing coal fleet after China. If HELE technology is implemented, significant savings

b d b t t li i t h l can be made, but current policies on technology may not go far enough

Overnight capex for new USC plants

Updated estimates for coal power plant capital and operating costs

Capital cost breakdown for the construction of a 606 MWe pulverised coal fired plant 2010 data

Estimated costs of HELE capacity upgrades with and without CCS (2040 cumulative)

Pursuing a sustainablemodel for growth in India – IEA WEO commentsmodel for growth in India IEA WEO comments

A continued focus on efficiency, low‐carbon energy & high y, gy gstandards of pollution controls is vital to improve air quality

India is among the most vulnerable countries to the impact of a India is among the most vulnerable countries to the impact of a changing climate, e.g. by exacerbating water stresses

I d h I di CO i i l h h Increased energy use pushes up Indian CO2 emissions, although per capita emissions remain 20% below world average in 2040

Opening up new, long‐term, low‐cost financing options critical to direct investment towards cleaner, more capital‐intensive projects

Comments on India

• Will have to fastest growing coal fleet from 2020 • Will have to fastest growing coal fleet from 2020 onwards, with coal-sources electricity demand more than doubling by 2040

• Current fleet is mostly sub-critical but some SC • Current fleet is mostly sub-critical but some SC plants are being built and this should increase in future – 13th 5-year plan may require all new plants to be at least SCto be at least SC

• USC and AUSC plants could allow CO2 emissions to peak and decline by 2040

• High ash coals pose a challenge and warrant • High ash coals pose a challenge and warrant deeper analysis – water availability is also an issue

Conclusions

• India is growing and cleaning its new power• India is growing and cleaning its new power

• A greater commitment to HELE technologies b d d t hi i ifi t may be needed sooner to achieve significant

results

• This will require significant investment

Advanced technologies – new developments and economic ...

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