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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin QG Analysis QG Theory Basic Idea Approximations and Validity QG Equations / Reference QG Analysis Basic Idea Estimating Vertical Motion QG Omega Equation: Basic Form QG Omega Equation: Relation to Jet Streaks QG Omega Equation: Q-vector Form Estimating System Evolution QG Height Tendency Equation Diabatic and Orographic Processes Evolution of Low-level Cyclones Evolution of Upper-level Troughs

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Forecast Needs: The public desires information regarding temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed and direction up to 7 days in advance across the entire country Such information is largely a function of the evolving synoptic weather patterns (i.e., surface pressure systems, fronts, and jet streams) Forecast Method: Kinematic Approach: Analyze current observations of wind, temperature, and moisture fields Assume clouds and precipitation occur when there is upward motion and an adequate supply of moisture QG theory QG Analysis: Vertical Motion: Diagnose synoptic-scale vertical motion from the observed distributions of differential geostrophic vorticity advection and temperature advection System Evolution: Predict changes in the local geopotential height patterns from the observed distributions of geostrophic vorticity advection and differential temperature advection QG Analysis: Basic Idea

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Recall: Two Prognostic Equations Two Unknowns: We defined geopotential height tendency ( X ) and then expressed geostrophic vorticity ( g ) and temperature (T) in terms of the height tendency. QG Analysis: A Closed System of Equations

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The QG Height Tendency Equation: We can also derive a single prognostic equation for X by combining our modified vorticity and thermodynamic equations (the height-tendency versions): To do this, we need to eliminate the vertical motion () from both equations Step 1: Apply the operator to the thermodynamic equation Step 2:Multiply the vorticity equation by Step 3:Add the results of Steps 1 and 2 After a lot of math, we get the resulting prognostic equation QG Analysis: System Evolution Vorticity Equation Adiabatic Thermodynamic Equation

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The QG Height Tendency Equation: This is (2.32) in the Lackmann text This form of the equation is not very intuitive since we transformed geostrophic vorticity and temperature into terms of geopotential height. To make this equation more intuitive, lets transform them back QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C To obtain an actual value for X (the ideal goal), we would need to compute the forcing terms (Terms B and C) from the three-dimensional wind and temperature fields, and then invert the operator in Term A using a numerical procedure, called successive over-relaxation, with appropriate boundary conditions This is NOT a simple task (forecasters never do this).. Rather, we can infer the sign and relative magnitude of X simple inspection of the three-dimensional absolute geostrophic vorticity and temperature fields (forecasters do this all the time) Thus, lets examine the physical interpretation of each term. QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term A:Local Geopotential Height Tendency This term is our goal a qualitative estimate of the synoptic-scale geopotential height change at a particular location For synoptic-scale atmospheric waves, this term is proportional to X Thus, if we incorporate the negative sign into our physical interpretation, we can just think of this term as local geopotential height change QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term B:Geostrophic Advection of Absolute Vorticity (Vorticity Advection) Recall for a Single Pressure Level: Positive vorticity advection (PVA)PVA causes local vorticity increases From our relationship between g and , we know that PVA is equivalent to: therefore: PVA or, since: PVA Thus, we know that PVA at a single level leads to height falls Using similar logic, NVA at a single level leads to height rises QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term B:Geostrophic Advection of Absolute Vorticity (Vorticity Advection) Trough Axis Initial Time NVA Expect Height Rises PVA Expect Height Falls Expect the trough to move east Initial Time QG Analysis: System Evolution Full-Physics Model Analysis

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Trough Axis Initial Time 12 Hours Later The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term B:Geostrophic Advection of Absolute Vorticity (Vorticity Advection) QG Analysis: System Evolution Generally consistent with expectations!

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term B:Geostrophic Advection of Absolute Vorticity (Vorticity Advection) Generally ConsistentBUTRemember! Only evaluated one level (500mb) should evaluate multiple levels Used full wind and vorticity fields should use geostrophic wind and vorticity Mesoscale-convective processes QG focuses on only synoptic-scale (small R o ) Condensation / Evaporation neglected diabatic processes Did not consider differential temperature (thermal) advection (Term C)!!! Application Tips: Often the primary forcing in the upper troposphere (500 mb and above) Term is equal to zero at local vorticity maxima / minima If the vorticity maxima / minima are collocated with trough / ridge axes, (which is often the case) this term cannot change system strength by increasing or decreasing the amplitude of the trough / ridge system Thus, this term is often responsible for system motion [more on this later] QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Consider a three layer atmosphere where the warm air advection (WAA) is strongest in the upper layer The greater temperature increase aloft will produce the greatest thickness increase in the upper layer and lower the pressure surfaces (or heights) in the lower levels Therefore an increase in WAA advection with height leads to height falls QG Analysis: System Evolution WAA Z-top Z-400mb Z-700mb Z-bottom Z increases ZZ Height Falls occur below the level of maximum WAA

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Possible height fall scenarios:Strong WAA in upper levels Weak WAA in lower levels WAA in upper level CAA in lower levels No temperature advection in upper levels CAA in lower levels Weak CAA in upper levels Strong CAA in lower levels QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Consider a three layer atmosphere where the warm air advection (CAA) is strongest in the upper layer The greater temperature increase aloft will produce the greatest thickness increase in the upper layer and lower the pressure surfaces (or heights) in the lower levels Therefore an increase in CAA advection with height leads to height rises QG Analysis: System Evolution Height rises occur below the level of maximum CAA Z-top Z-400mb Z-700mb Z-bottom Z decreases ZZ

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term A Term B Term C Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Possible height rise scenarios:Strong CAA in upper levels Weak CAA in lower levels CAA in upper level WAA in lower levels No temperature advection in upper levels WAA in lower levels Weak WAA in upper levels Strong WAA in lower levels QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) QG Analysis: System Evolution Initial Trough Axis Strong WWA Weaker WAA aloft (not shown) Expect Height Rises Initial Time 850 mb Strong CAA Weaker CAA aloft (not shown) Expect Height Falls Full-Physics Model Analysis

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin Initial Trough Axis 12 Hours Later 850 mb Trough deepened Ridge rose slightly The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) QG Analysis: System Evolution Generally consistent with expectations!

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Generally ConsistentBUTRemember! Used full wind field should use geostrophic wind Only evaluated one level (850mb) should evaluate multiple levels/layers ** Mesoscale-convective processes QG focuses on only synoptic-scale (small R o ) Condensation / Evaporation neglected diabatic processes Did not consider vorticity advection (Term B)!!! Application Tips: Often the primary forcing in the lower troposphere (below 500 mb) Term is equal to zero at local temperature maxima / minima Since the temperature maxima / minima are often located between the trough / ridge axes, significant temperature advection (or height changes) can occur at the axes and thus amplify the system intensity QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Important: You should evaluate the vertical structure of temperature advection!!! QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Height Tendency Equation: Term C:Vertical Derivative of Geostrophic Temperature Advection (Differential Thermal Advection) Important: You should evaluate the vertical structure of temperature advection!!! QG Analysis: System Evolution N-S Cross-section of Temperature Advection WAA = Warm Colors CAA = Cool Colors

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin The BASIC QG Omega Equation: Application Tips: Remember the underlying assumptions!!! You must consider the effects of both Term B and Term C at multiple levels!!! If the vorticity maxima/minima are not collocated with trough/ridge axes, then Term B will contribute to system intensity change and motion If the vorticity advection patterns change with height, expect the system tilt to change with time (become more tilted or more stacked) If differential temperature advection is large (small), then expect Term C to produce large (small) changes in system intensity Opposing expectations from the two terms at a given location will weaken the total vertical motion (and complicate the interpretation)!!! The QG height-tendency equation is a prognostic equation: Can be used to predict the future pattern of geopotential heights Diagnose the synopticscale contribution to the height field evolution Predict the formation, movement, and evolution of synoptic waves QG Analysis: System Evolution

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Advanced SynopticM. D. Eastin References Bluestein, H. B, 1993: Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Volume I: Principles of Kinematics and Dynamics. Oxford University Press, New York, 431 pp. Bluestein, H. B, 1993: Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Volume II: Observations and Theory of Weather Systems. Oxford University Press, New York, 594 pp. Charney, J. G., B. Gilchrist, and F. G. Shuman, 1956: The prediction of general quasi-geostrophic motions. J. Meteor., 13, 489-499. Durran, D. R., and L. W. Snellman, 1987: The diagnosis of synoptic-scale vertical motionin an operational environment. Weather and Forecasting, 2, 17-31. Hoskins, B. J., I. Draghici, and H. C. Davis, 1978: A new look at the equation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 31-38. Hoskins, B. J., and M. A. Pedder, 1980: The diagnosis of middle latitude synoptic development. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 31-38. Lackmann, G., 2011: Mid-latitude Synoptic Meteorology Dynamics, Analysis and Forecasting, AMS, 343 pp. Trenberth, K. E., 1978: On the interpretation of the diagnostic quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 131-137.