Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013...
Transcript of Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013...
Advanced Info Service Plc.
Investor Presentation
September 2015
Breakdown of customers Breakdown of Service Revenue
Investment highlight
AIS at a glance
Breakdown of Revenue Market Share
pre paid 87%
post paid 13%
Voice 47% Non-
voice 44%
IR 2%
Others 7%
40m users
52%
29%
19%
No.1 mobile operator in Thailand
2G (BTO) 3G (License)
900MHz ended Sept-15
2100 MHz ended Dec-27
1800MHz under
remedy period is
extended until the auction completed.
8.4
3
10
.9
12
.15
12
113% 93% 100% 100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Dividend payout ratio at 100%
Bt
Strong capital structure
2Q15
Net debt to equity 0.47
Net debt to EBITDA 0.32
ROE 90%
Moving toward licensing scheme
2
Data as of 2Q15
Largest telecom
infrastructure in Thailand
Core element in digital
era of “IoT”
New business growth
Driven toward convergence
Operating synergy with mobile
business
New source of revenue
Support mobile and fixed
broadband business
Partnership model
From Telecom Service Provider
to Digital Life Service Provider
Mobile Fixed
Broadband Digital
Contents
3
Business strategies in 2015
Continue to enhance network quality for better customer experience by
increasing network capacity
More aggressive 3G handset campaigns for achieving 2G subscriber
migration, lowering regulatory fee and defending market share.
Offer more variety of on-top packages to serve needs of different
customer segments, leading the way to data monetization
Acquire more spectrums to develop the technology and increase
capacity
AIS Fibre is in a beginning stage with insignificant contribution expected
in the first year, but rather focusing on service quality and installation
ramp-up.
4
Continued enhancing network and investing
for future capacity
Base stations and towers
AIS WiFi Fiber optics
FY14 2Q15
21,300
23,800 (2,500 small cells)
FY14 2Q15
28,000
38,000 (4,000 SuperWiFi)
Completed
123,000 km as of Jun-15
Executing 6-sector
cell splitting to achieve best capacity efficiency • Base station
• Towers (including 13,200 towers under dispute)
19,700
20,500 FY14 2Q15
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• Offer more handset discounts, with free
airtime,
• free data usage
• AIS LAVA + OLA Pop sold in 2Q15
1.1 mn units
• 77% of subscribers who changed to LAVA
were data users, compared to 36% when
before changing.
• New 3G house-branded phone:
AIS LAVA PRO 5.5 and LAVA W1
1H15: 3G device penetration increased led by
AIS Super Combo
46% 49% 54%
58% 62%
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
3G Handset penetration on 2.1GHz-License
35% 36% 39% 44%
49%
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Smartphone penetration on 2.1GHz-License
6
2H15: To increase 3G device penetration to 70%
AIS
900MHz-BTO 2100MHz-License
2G Device 3G Device
2.7m 37m
14m 23m
62% penetration
40m
Low cost 3G smartphone
Budget 3G feature phone
High-tier
7
AIS handset trade-in campaign
• Target AIS’ existing customers
• Customers can bring their old phone to trade with
AIS OLA POP (feature phone) + Bt200 top-up or
AIS LAVA 3.5” (entry level smart phone) at Bt690
As of 2Q15
Paving the way for monetization
Expand data users Promote on-top packages
Encourage use of
application & content Supported by 4G
Data usage increased substantially
in the last two years with potential of higher growth from 4G
250 MB
in 1Q13
4G
8
20mn
1H15
17mn
1H14
13mn
1H13
Volume of Usage MB/ data sub/ mth
1,600 MB
in 2Q15
Expiring concession
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Options to handle remaining 2G
customers depending on number of
customers on 900MHz
Upon concession expiry, remedy
period for 900MHz is expected
before auction.
Ongoing Tower dispute
Awaiting NBTC’s consideration
NBTC may impose different approach from
1800MHz remedy.
To evaluate for feasible options considering
financial impact
Remaining customers are expected to be 30%
of total subscribers by end of 2015
13,198 towers under dispute
Case under arbitration
Ongoing negotiation with TOT to resolve
dispute and build long-term business model
Current Bandwidth Status
2.1GHz license 15MHz 3G service
1800MHz concession 12.5MHz expired since Sep 2013
900MHz concession 17.5MHz expiring in Sep 2015 to be returned
New acquisition Bandwidth Plan
900MHz license 10MHz options depending on number of subscribers
1800MHz license 12.5 or 15MHz most common for 4G
Partnership with TOT for 2.1 and 2.3 GHz available Under discussion
Spectrum strategy
10
Spectrum auction The IM of 1800MHz auction was announced on the Royal Gazette on 24 August 2015.
As for the draft of Information Memorandum of 900 MHz auction, it is under the process of public hearing.
1800 MHz 900 MHz
Spectrum packaging
Two licenses of
Option 1: 2 x 15 MHz or
Option 2: 2 x 12.5 MHz Depending on spectrum return from CAT
Two licenses of 2 x 10 MHz
Starting price
Option 1: Bt15.9bn or Bt19.9bn
Option 2: Bt13.3bn or Bt16.6bn
depending on spectrum return and number of bidders
Bt11.3bn or Bt16.1bn, depending on number of bidders
Auction method Simultaneous Multiple Round Ascending Auction
Validity Until 15 September 2033 (~ 18 years) 15 years
Network requirement • Covering 40% of population within 4 years, and 50%
within 8 years
• Technology neutral
• Covering 40% of population within 4
years
• Technology neutral
Payment 1. 50% within 90 days after winner announcement
2. 25% at end of year 2 3. 25% at end of year 3
Public hearing sessions 27 July and 3 August 11 and 31 August
Auction date 11 November ~ 11 November (TBC)
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4G Readiness: Keep our DNAs work
12
Capital to support auction Get 4G Device ready
Reserve price as per IM
• 1800MHz: 13.3bn / license
(12.5MHz) or 15.9bn /
license (15MHz)
• 900MHz: 11.3bn / license
(10MHz)
Applications work better on 4G
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0
4.7 Asia ex. Japan
Europe
2013 2014 2Q15
Multi-band antennae
small cells
Fiber optic backhaul
100% ready
100% ready
15%
• Live video streaming
• VoLTE, HD voice calls on LTE
AIS
Picture from Qualcom
0.14
0.28 0.32
2015E
2015E from global research
Roll out Network quickly
of 1H15 new handset sales were 4G-enabled
Cheapest 4G handset in 1H15 was approx. Bt5,000
Most of 3G N/W
2.0 US telcos
AIS officially launched Fixed Broadband
Officially launched on 27th
April: Bangkok, Chiang Mai,
Nakhon Ratchasima, Udon
Thani, Khon Kaen, Phuket,
and Hat Yai
Special package since August
offering three services for AIS
Postpaid customers:
- fixed broadband
- AIS Playbox
- AIS fixed line number
13
14
Fixed Broadband: maintain target with
quality focus
11,900
80,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
Actual
Target
2H15
What have we faced in 1H15?
• Intended to penetrate with quality
• Required more skillful teams to
respond to huge demand
Plan in 2H15
• Streamline workflow for service and
installation to ensure quality
• Increase installation workforce
• Quick ramp-up to reach target of 80,000
exponential ramp-up
Capacity
250,000 households
Homespass
1mn
Coverage plan in 2015
Year-end target
• Chiangmai
• Bangkok
• Chonburi
• Udonthani
• Kon kaen
• Korat
• Phuket
28%
37%
32%
3%
Fixed Broadband landscape in Thailand
5mn subscribers
Others
Others
7mn subscribers
in 5 years
Technology DL Mbps
UL Mbps
Price
/month (Bt)
Docsis 15 1.5 599
Docsis 30 3 1,299
Docsis 50 5 2,799
Docsis 100 10 4,999
Docsis 200 15 9,999
Technology DL Mbps
UL Mbps
Price
/month (Bt)
ADSL 10 0.512 590
ADSL 15 1 900
VDSL/FTTx 30 3 1,200
VDSL/FTTx 50 10 2,500
FTTx 100 30 5,900
FTTx 200 50 9,900
Technology DL Mbps
UL Mbps
Price
/month (Bt)
ADSL 10 1 590
ADSL 13 1 690
ADSL 15 1 990
FTTx 30 3 1,290
FTTx 40 5 2,200
FTTx 50 5 3,500
Key player
15
16
Digital content: new s-curve roadmap
video
game
game
Short-term Medium-term Long-term
M2M
mobile banking
mobile banking
Vid
eo
G
am
e
Mo
bile
b
an
kin
g
Clo
ud
M
2M
29.6 30.3 30.5
58.6 60.8
2Q15 and 1H15 Financial highlights
50.3%
55% 55.4% 51.6%
55.2%
Service revenue (ex IC) EBITDA Handset margin
% Service EBITDA margin % EBITDA margin Net profit
+14% YoY
0% QoQ
15.8 18.1 18.1
32.3 36.1
-0.4%
3.9% 2.0%
1.0%
3.1%
43.3% 44.6%
47.4%
44.2% 45.9%
8.5 9.9 9.8
18 19.7
+2.9% YoY
+0.5% QoQ
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15
• Grew slightly below full year guidance • Strong YoY improvement from better
service revenue, positive handset
margin and lower expenses
• YoY growth driven by continued
promotion of AIS LAVA
• QoQ decreased from less units sold
and lower price
• Driven by higher service revenue
and large regulatory fee saving
offsetting higher network OPEX
• Rose from strong service EBITDA
growth and better handset sales
margin YoY
+260 bps YoY
-190 bps QoQ
+410 bps YoY
+280 bps QoQ +16% YoY
-0.5% QoQ
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15
2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15
+3.8 YoY (Bt bn)
+12% YoY
(Bt bn)
+210 bps YoY
+170 bps YoY +10% YoY
(Bt mn)
17
+510 bps YoY
+40 bps QoQ +360 bps YoY
• YoY, net profit strongly improved due to
EBITDA growth over compensating rise
in D&A, finance costs, and tax
Strong free cash flow to support dividend
1H15 Cash flow (Bt mn)
33,253
3,647
16,048
861 243
17,718
5,087
Operating cash flow
Income
tax paid
CAPEX Finance costs
Cash decreased
Operating Investing Financing Net cash
Cash inflow
Cash outflow
2Q15 Interest-bearing debt
Avg interest rate
of 4.5% p.a.
LT borrowings
LT debentures
Foreign
Local
Bt36bn
100%
Bt11.4bn
(32%)
Bt24.6bn
(68%)
• all floated
• fully hedged
all fixed
Swaps & Forwards
LT
borrowing
debenture net swap
and
forward
receivables
20.5bn 16.6bn
-1.1bn
Repayment
of LT borrowings
Dividend paid
18
Service revenue ex. IC
• Increase around 3% YoY
(revised, considering weak economic outlook and high competition)
Handset sales
• Maintain growth at 10% but with -5 to -6% margin
(revised because more offers of competitive handset campaigns are
expected)
• 70% 3G device penetration (maintained)
EBITDA margin • Consolidated EBITDA margin remains flat
(revised due to expected negative handset margin)
• Service EBITDA margin increases by 200 bps (new guidance)
CAPEX • Bt36bn
(revised because some project payments are deferred and some
projects are delayed)
Dividend • 100% dividend payout (maintained)
Guidance for 2015
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APPENDIX
Depreciation & Amortization
The value of 2G network assets will be depleted in FY15
Asset under BTO (2G assets)
FY14 FY15
Bt0
FY14
2G assets amortization
3G 2.1GHz networks depreciation
3G 2.1GHz license amortization
SG&A depreciation
FY15
Breakdown of D&A Rising 3G investment will result
in higher D&A but partly offset
by lower 2G amortization
Bt18.6n
Bt0.9bn
Bt6bn
Bt0.3bn
Bt12bn
Bt0.9bn
>Bt6bn
Bt8.7bn
>Bt0.3bn
Bt8.7bn
+10%
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Monthly Fee Voice (minutes)
Data Throttling Wifi
Bt 199 80 500 MB 128 Kbps -
Bt 299 100 750 MB 128 Kbps
Bt399 150 750 MB 128 Kbps
Bt599 300 1.5 GB 128 Kbps
Bt799 400 2 GB 128 Kbps
Bt999 500 3 GB 256 Kbps
Bt1,299 850 10 GB 256 Kbps
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Tier pricing – volume base Fair usage policy: no real unlimited data offers
As of August 2015
Sp
ecia
l sh
ort
-te
rm d
iscou
nt
3X
da
ta u
sa
ge
fo
r firs
t 6
mo
nth
s
Mao Mao
3G Double Net Internet Throttling Validity
Bt 9 20 MB Limited usage 1 Day
Bt 29 120 MB Limited usage 1 Day
Bt 49 320 MB (non-stop) 64 kbps 1 Day
Bt 59 140 MB Limited usage 7 Days
Bt 79 360 MB Limited usage 7 Days
Bt 99 600 MB Limited usage 7 Days
Bt 249 2 GB (non-stop) 64 kbps 7 Days
Bt 199 300 MB Limited usage 30 Days
Bt 239 600 MB Limited usage 30 Days
Bt 799 8 GB (non-stop) 64 kbps 30 Days
Social Pack Internet Validity
KakaoTalk, Line, Facebook,
BeeTalk, Wechat or WhatsApp
Bt 5 1 Day
Bt 49 7 Days
YouTube Bt 29 1 Day
YouTube Bt 99 7 Days
Prepaid on-top packages for mobile data
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Disclaimers
AIS INVESTOR RELATIONS http://investor.ais.co.th
[email protected] TEL. +662 0295117
Some statements made in this material are forward-looking statements with the relevant assumptions, which are subject to
various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and
other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology
such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “continue” “plan” or other similar words.
The statements are based on our management’s assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us.
These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be
materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking
statements. Please note that the company and executives/staff do not control and cannot guarantee the relevance,
timeliness, or accuracy of these statements.