Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013...

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Advanced Info Service Plc. Investor Presentation September 2015

Transcript of Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013...

Page 1: Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013 2014 2Q15 Multi-band antennae small cells Fiber optic backhaul 100% ready 100% ready

Advanced Info Service Plc.

Investor Presentation

September 2015

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Breakdown of customers Breakdown of Service Revenue

Investment highlight

AIS at a glance

Breakdown of Revenue Market Share

pre paid 87%

post paid 13%

Voice 47% Non-

voice 44%

IR 2%

Others 7%

40m users

52%

29%

19%

No.1 mobile operator in Thailand

2G (BTO) 3G (License)

900MHz ended Sept-15

2100 MHz ended Dec-27

1800MHz under

remedy period is

extended until the auction completed.

8.4

3

10

.9

12

.15

12

113% 93% 100% 100%

2011 2012 2013 2014

Dividend payout ratio at 100%

Bt

Strong capital structure

2Q15

Net debt to equity 0.47

Net debt to EBITDA 0.32

ROE 90%

Moving toward licensing scheme

2

Data as of 2Q15

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Largest telecom

infrastructure in Thailand

Core element in digital

era of “IoT”

New business growth

Driven toward convergence

Operating synergy with mobile

business

New source of revenue

Support mobile and fixed

broadband business

Partnership model

From Telecom Service Provider

to Digital Life Service Provider

Mobile Fixed

Broadband Digital

Contents

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Business strategies in 2015

Continue to enhance network quality for better customer experience by

increasing network capacity

More aggressive 3G handset campaigns for achieving 2G subscriber

migration, lowering regulatory fee and defending market share.

Offer more variety of on-top packages to serve needs of different

customer segments, leading the way to data monetization

Acquire more spectrums to develop the technology and increase

capacity

AIS Fibre is in a beginning stage with insignificant contribution expected

in the first year, but rather focusing on service quality and installation

ramp-up.

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Continued enhancing network and investing

for future capacity

Base stations and towers

AIS WiFi Fiber optics

FY14 2Q15

21,300

23,800 (2,500 small cells)

FY14 2Q15

28,000

38,000 (4,000 SuperWiFi)

Completed

123,000 km as of Jun-15

Executing 6-sector

cell splitting to achieve best capacity efficiency • Base station

• Towers (including 13,200 towers under dispute)

19,700

20,500 FY14 2Q15

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• Offer more handset discounts, with free

airtime,

• free data usage

• AIS LAVA + OLA Pop sold in 2Q15

1.1 mn units

• 77% of subscribers who changed to LAVA

were data users, compared to 36% when

before changing.

• New 3G house-branded phone:

AIS LAVA PRO 5.5 and LAVA W1

1H15: 3G device penetration increased led by

AIS Super Combo

46% 49% 54%

58% 62%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

3G Handset penetration on 2.1GHz-License

35% 36% 39% 44%

49%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

Smartphone penetration on 2.1GHz-License

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2H15: To increase 3G device penetration to 70%

AIS

900MHz-BTO 2100MHz-License

2G Device 3G Device

2.7m 37m

14m 23m

62% penetration

40m

Low cost 3G smartphone

Budget 3G feature phone

High-tier

7

AIS handset trade-in campaign

• Target AIS’ existing customers

• Customers can bring their old phone to trade with

AIS OLA POP (feature phone) + Bt200 top-up or

AIS LAVA 3.5” (entry level smart phone) at Bt690

As of 2Q15

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Paving the way for monetization

Expand data users Promote on-top packages

Encourage use of

application & content Supported by 4G

Data usage increased substantially

in the last two years with potential of higher growth from 4G

250 MB

in 1Q13

4G

8

20mn

1H15

17mn

1H14

13mn

1H13

Volume of Usage MB/ data sub/ mth

1,600 MB

in 2Q15

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Expiring concession

9

Options to handle remaining 2G

customers depending on number of

customers on 900MHz

Upon concession expiry, remedy

period for 900MHz is expected

before auction.

Ongoing Tower dispute

Awaiting NBTC’s consideration

NBTC may impose different approach from

1800MHz remedy.

To evaluate for feasible options considering

financial impact

Remaining customers are expected to be 30%

of total subscribers by end of 2015

13,198 towers under dispute

Case under arbitration

Ongoing negotiation with TOT to resolve

dispute and build long-term business model

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Current Bandwidth Status

2.1GHz license 15MHz 3G service

1800MHz concession 12.5MHz expired since Sep 2013

900MHz concession 17.5MHz expiring in Sep 2015 to be returned

New acquisition Bandwidth Plan

900MHz license 10MHz options depending on number of subscribers

1800MHz license 12.5 or 15MHz most common for 4G

Partnership with TOT for 2.1 and 2.3 GHz available Under discussion

Spectrum strategy

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Spectrum auction The IM of 1800MHz auction was announced on the Royal Gazette on 24 August 2015.

As for the draft of Information Memorandum of 900 MHz auction, it is under the process of public hearing.

1800 MHz 900 MHz

Spectrum packaging

Two licenses of

Option 1: 2 x 15 MHz or

Option 2: 2 x 12.5 MHz Depending on spectrum return from CAT

Two licenses of 2 x 10 MHz

Starting price

Option 1: Bt15.9bn or Bt19.9bn

Option 2: Bt13.3bn or Bt16.6bn

depending on spectrum return and number of bidders

Bt11.3bn or Bt16.1bn, depending on number of bidders

Auction method Simultaneous Multiple Round Ascending Auction

Validity Until 15 September 2033 (~ 18 years) 15 years

Network requirement • Covering 40% of population within 4 years, and 50%

within 8 years

• Technology neutral

• Covering 40% of population within 4

years

• Technology neutral

Payment 1. 50% within 90 days after winner announcement

2. 25% at end of year 2 3. 25% at end of year 3

Public hearing sessions 27 July and 3 August 11 and 31 August

Auction date 11 November ~ 11 November (TBC)

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4G Readiness: Keep our DNAs work

12

Capital to support auction Get 4G Device ready

Reserve price as per IM

• 1800MHz: 13.3bn / license

(12.5MHz) or 15.9bn /

license (15MHz)

• 900MHz: 11.3bn / license

(10MHz)

Applications work better on 4G

Net debt/EBITDA

1.0

4.7 Asia ex. Japan

Europe

2013 2014 2Q15

Multi-band antennae

small cells

Fiber optic backhaul

100% ready

100% ready

15%

• Live video streaming

• VoLTE, HD voice calls on LTE

AIS

Picture from Qualcom

0.14

0.28 0.32

2015E

2015E from global research

Roll out Network quickly

of 1H15 new handset sales were 4G-enabled

Cheapest 4G handset in 1H15 was approx. Bt5,000

Most of 3G N/W

2.0 US telcos

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AIS officially launched Fixed Broadband

Officially launched on 27th

April: Bangkok, Chiang Mai,

Nakhon Ratchasima, Udon

Thani, Khon Kaen, Phuket,

and Hat Yai

Special package since August

offering three services for AIS

Postpaid customers:

- fixed broadband

- AIS Playbox

- AIS fixed line number

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Fixed Broadband: maintain target with

quality focus

11,900

80,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec

Actual

Target

2H15

What have we faced in 1H15?

• Intended to penetrate with quality

• Required more skillful teams to

respond to huge demand

Plan in 2H15

• Streamline workflow for service and

installation to ensure quality

• Increase installation workforce

• Quick ramp-up to reach target of 80,000

exponential ramp-up

Capacity

250,000 households

Homespass

1mn

Coverage plan in 2015

Year-end target

• Chiangmai

• Bangkok

• Chonburi

• Udonthani

• Kon kaen

• Korat

• Phuket

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28%

37%

32%

3%

Fixed Broadband landscape in Thailand

5mn subscribers

Others

Others

7mn subscribers

in 5 years

Technology DL Mbps

UL Mbps

Price

/month (Bt)

Docsis 15 1.5 599

Docsis 30 3 1,299

Docsis 50 5 2,799

Docsis 100 10 4,999

Docsis 200 15 9,999

Technology DL Mbps

UL Mbps

Price

/month (Bt)

ADSL 10 0.512 590

ADSL 15 1 900

VDSL/FTTx 30 3 1,200

VDSL/FTTx 50 10 2,500

FTTx 100 30 5,900

FTTx 200 50 9,900

Technology DL Mbps

UL Mbps

Price

/month (Bt)

ADSL 10 1 590

ADSL 13 1 690

ADSL 15 1 990

FTTx 30 3 1,290

FTTx 40 5 2,200

FTTx 50 5 3,500

Key player

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Digital content: new s-curve roadmap

video

game

game

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

M2M

mobile banking

mobile banking

Vid

eo

G

am

e

Mo

bile

b

an

kin

g

Clo

ud

M

2M

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29.6 30.3 30.5

58.6 60.8

2Q15 and 1H15 Financial highlights

50.3%

55% 55.4% 51.6%

55.2%

Service revenue (ex IC) EBITDA Handset margin

% Service EBITDA margin % EBITDA margin Net profit

+14% YoY

0% QoQ

15.8 18.1 18.1

32.3 36.1

-0.4%

3.9% 2.0%

1.0%

3.1%

43.3% 44.6%

47.4%

44.2% 45.9%

8.5 9.9 9.8

18 19.7

+2.9% YoY

+0.5% QoQ

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15

• Grew slightly below full year guidance • Strong YoY improvement from better

service revenue, positive handset

margin and lower expenses

• YoY growth driven by continued

promotion of AIS LAVA

• QoQ decreased from less units sold

and lower price

• Driven by higher service revenue

and large regulatory fee saving

offsetting higher network OPEX

• Rose from strong service EBITDA

growth and better handset sales

margin YoY

+260 bps YoY

-190 bps QoQ

+410 bps YoY

+280 bps QoQ +16% YoY

-0.5% QoQ

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15

2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 1H14 1H15

+3.8 YoY (Bt bn)

+12% YoY

(Bt bn)

+210 bps YoY

+170 bps YoY +10% YoY

(Bt mn)

17

+510 bps YoY

+40 bps QoQ +360 bps YoY

• YoY, net profit strongly improved due to

EBITDA growth over compensating rise

in D&A, finance costs, and tax

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Strong free cash flow to support dividend

1H15 Cash flow (Bt mn)

33,253

3,647

16,048

861 243

17,718

5,087

Operating cash flow

Income

tax paid

CAPEX Finance costs

Cash decreased

Operating Investing Financing Net cash

Cash inflow

Cash outflow

2Q15 Interest-bearing debt

Avg interest rate

of 4.5% p.a.

LT borrowings

LT debentures

Foreign

Local

Bt36bn

100%

Bt11.4bn

(32%)

Bt24.6bn

(68%)

• all floated

• fully hedged

all fixed

Swaps & Forwards

LT

borrowing

debenture net swap

and

forward

receivables

20.5bn 16.6bn

-1.1bn

Repayment

of LT borrowings

Dividend paid

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Service revenue ex. IC

• Increase around 3% YoY

(revised, considering weak economic outlook and high competition)

Handset sales

• Maintain growth at 10% but with -5 to -6% margin

(revised because more offers of competitive handset campaigns are

expected)

• 70% 3G device penetration (maintained)

EBITDA margin • Consolidated EBITDA margin remains flat

(revised due to expected negative handset margin)

• Service EBITDA margin increases by 200 bps (new guidance)

CAPEX • Bt36bn

(revised because some project payments are deferred and some

projects are delayed)

Dividend • 100% dividend payout (maintained)

Guidance for 2015

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Page 20: Advanced Info Service Plc. - listed companyadvanc.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/2015/...2013 2014 2Q15 Multi-band antennae small cells Fiber optic backhaul 100% ready 100% ready

APPENDIX

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Depreciation & Amortization

The value of 2G network assets will be depleted in FY15

Asset under BTO (2G assets)

FY14 FY15

Bt0

FY14

2G assets amortization

3G 2.1GHz networks depreciation

3G 2.1GHz license amortization

SG&A depreciation

FY15

Breakdown of D&A Rising 3G investment will result

in higher D&A but partly offset

by lower 2G amortization

Bt18.6n

Bt0.9bn

Bt6bn

Bt0.3bn

Bt12bn

Bt0.9bn

>Bt6bn

Bt8.7bn

>Bt0.3bn

Bt8.7bn

+10%

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Monthly Fee Voice (minutes)

Data Throttling Wifi

Bt 199 80 500 MB 128 Kbps -

Bt 299 100 750 MB 128 Kbps

Bt399 150 750 MB 128 Kbps

Bt599 300 1.5 GB 128 Kbps

Bt799 400 2 GB 128 Kbps

Bt999 500 3 GB 256 Kbps

Bt1,299 850 10 GB 256 Kbps

22

Tier pricing – volume base Fair usage policy: no real unlimited data offers

As of August 2015

Sp

ecia

l sh

ort

-te

rm d

iscou

nt

3X

da

ta u

sa

ge

fo

r firs

t 6

mo

nth

s

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Mao Mao

3G Double Net Internet Throttling Validity

Bt 9 20 MB Limited usage 1 Day

Bt 29 120 MB Limited usage 1 Day

Bt 49 320 MB (non-stop) 64 kbps 1 Day

Bt 59 140 MB Limited usage 7 Days

Bt 79 360 MB Limited usage 7 Days

Bt 99 600 MB Limited usage 7 Days

Bt 249 2 GB (non-stop) 64 kbps 7 Days

Bt 199 300 MB Limited usage 30 Days

Bt 239 600 MB Limited usage 30 Days

Bt 799 8 GB (non-stop) 64 kbps 30 Days

Social Pack Internet Validity

KakaoTalk, Line, Facebook,

BeeTalk, Wechat or WhatsApp

Bt 5 1 Day

Bt 49 7 Days

YouTube Bt 29 1 Day

YouTube Bt 99 7 Days

Prepaid on-top packages for mobile data

23

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Disclaimers

AIS INVESTOR RELATIONS http://investor.ais.co.th

[email protected] TEL. +662 0295117

Some statements made in this material are forward-looking statements with the relevant assumptions, which are subject to

various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and

other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology

such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “continue” “plan” or other similar words.

The statements are based on our management’s assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us.

These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be

materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking

statements. Please note that the company and executives/staff do not control and cannot guarantee the relevance,

timeliness, or accuracy of these statements.