Adult Population(2013) - Department of Employment Web viewSource: Department of Employment, Internet...

Warrnambool and South West Region

The Warrnambool and South West SA4 includes the Local Government Areas (LGA) of:

LGAColac-OtwayCorangamiteGlenelgMoyneSouthern GrampiansWarrnambool

300 local businesses participated in our survey which was undertaken between December 2014 and February 2015.

Regional Snapshot

Adult

Population(2013

)

Growth in

Adult

population

2008-2013

15 to

24

year

olds

65 +

years

Median

age(Censu

s 2011)

Colac-Otway 16,900 1% 14% 24% 42

Corangamite 12,900 -1% 14% 26% 43

Glenelg 16,000 0% 13% 23% 43

Moyne 12,800 3% 14% 21% 41

Southern Grampians 13,200 -3% 15% 26% 44

Warrnambool 27,000 7% 18% 21% 38

Warrnambool and South West SA4

98,800 2% 15% 23% 41

Victoria 4,688,100 10% 18% 16% 37

Population profileSource: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2013; ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

LGA 2013 adult pop WAP 15-24 YEARS

Colac-Otway 16,935 12,826 2,365Corangamite 12,908 9,581 1,845Glenelg 16,034 12,359 2,117Moyne 12,841 10,085 1,735Southern Grampians 13,178 9,794 1,981Warrnambool 26,954 21,390 4,918

SA4 98,850 76,034 14,961

Young people leaving the areaSource: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2013

Since 1991, the population in the Warrnambool and South West has been ageing. In addition to this, young people are leaving the area.

Change from 2008 to 2013

LGA

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 and over

total

Colac-Otway (S) -157 -87 88 -22 -177 -27 -183 -42 102 170 315 81 -9 6 109 -88Corangamite (S) -7 -14 -80 -143 -215 -146 -125 132 4 58 99 40 100 5 108 -499Glenelg (S) 20 -169 -66 -102 -103 -175 -180 -6 150 228 182 154 16 8 39 -499Moyne (S) -137 9 23 3 -120 81 -143 44 109 102 238 87 7 17 48 429Southern Grampians (S) -18 -17 -70 -4 -211 -118 -225 -36 -3 40 189 16 -31 -20 55 -724Warrnambool (C) -116 256 231 29 -174 43 -45 162 243 240 346 203 -5 95 166 1,604

SA4 -415 -22 126 -239-1,000 -342 -901 254 605 838 1,369 581 78 111 525 223

One in four young people leave the area - 1 5 to 24 year olds Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

3,900 (25 per cent) 15 to 24 year olds who had resided in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 at the time of the 2006 census had moved out of the area by the 2011 census.

2,800 15 to 24 year olds who had resided elsewhere at the time of the 2006 Census had moved into the area by the 2011 census.

Net migration out was 1,100.

Of the 3,900 who moved out, 53 per cent were females and 47 per cent were males.

Migration out of the individual LGAs (some of this migration is between the LGAs)

Warrnambool was the only LGA to have a net increase in youth. They had 1,100 young people move out and 1,200 move in. The net migration in was 100 young people.

Colac-Otway -380Corangamite -780Glenelg -580Moyne -440Southern Grampians -310Warrnambool +100

Moving to Warrnambool from other LGAs in SA4

Corangamite 140 22% of those moving outGlenelg 70 11% of those moving outMoyne 260 38% of those moving outSouthern Grampians 50 9% of those moving out

--------------------------------------------------------------------Additional information(Age group 50 plus)

In the 50 plus age group 2,400 people moved out of the region while 3,050 moved into the region. This is a net migration in of 650 people.

Losing your best and brightestSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

In the five years to August 2011, one quarter (25 per cent) of people aged 15-24 years, moved away from the Warrnambool and South East region.

Of those 15-24 year olds who had moved away, 21 per cent are currently employed in a higher skilled job and 12 per cent had completed a bachelor degree or higher.

For those aged 15-24 who had stayed behind, 10 per cent were currently employed in a higher skilled job and only 2 per cent had completed a bachelor degree or higher.

Unemployment increasing since September 2010Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages and seasonally adjusted)

The unemployment rate for the Warrnambool and South West SA4 has been steadily increasing from 3.2 per cent in September 2010 to stand at 6.2 per cent in March 2015. The unemployment rate is currently the same as Victoria (6.2 per cent seasonally adjusted).

The participation rate has fallen from 66.3 per cent in September 2010 to currently stand at 63.4 per cent in March 2015.

SALM unemployment rates

URDec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14 Dec

Colac-Otway (S)

4.5% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4%

6.2% 5.9%

5.9% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6%

6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.4% 7.3%

7.8% 7.5%

Corangamite (S)

3.3% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7%

4.5% 4.0%

3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%

3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.7%

5.0% 4.8%

Glenelg (S)5.8% 7.7% 8.0% 7.9%

7.6% 6.8%

6.4% 6.6% 6.4% 6.5%

6.8% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 8.0%

8.5% 8.2%

Moyne (S)2.8% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%

3.9% 3.5%

3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6%

3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1%

4.4% 4.1%

Southern Grampians (S)

3.9% 5.4% 5.6% 5.7%

5.7% 5.3%

5.1% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4%

5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 6.6%

7.2% 7.0%

Warrnambool (C)

4.3% 5.8% 6.1% 6.1%

5.8% 5.3%

5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.3%

5.6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 6.5%

7.0% 6.7%

SA44.2% 5.6% 5.9% 5.9%

5.7% 5.2%

5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.3%

5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 6.3%

6.8% 6.5%

Region

Unemployment rate

December

2013

December

2014Cola-Otway LGA 6.7% 7.8%Corangamite LGA 4.0% 5.0%Glenelg LGA 7.1% 8.5%Moyne LGA 4.0% 4.4%Southern Grampians LGA 5.7% 7.2%Warrnambool LGA 5.9% 7.0%

…Regional disparity and all risingSource: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets, December 2014

In December 2014, the highest unemployment rate in the Warrnambool and South West region was in the Glenelg LGA (8.5 per cent). This was followed by the Colac-Otway LGA (7.8 per cent), Southern Grampians LGA (7.2 per cent) and the Warrnambool LGA (7.0 per cent).

The lowest unemployment rate was in the Moyne LGA (4.0 per cent), this was followed by Corangamite LGA (5.0 per cent).

In the 12 months to December 2014, the Southern Grampians LGA had the largest increase from 5.7 per cent in December 2014 to 7.2 per cent in December 2015 (1.5 percentage points).

Internet vacancies decliningSource: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Report, December 2014 (3 month moving average)

Since May 2010, internet vacancies for Geelong and Surf Coast have fallen by 9 percent.

The Geelong and Surf Coast region includes the LGAs of Geelong, Corangamite, Moyne, Colac-Otway and Warrnambool

_____________________________________The Rest of Victoria had a 19 per cent fall since May 2010.

Almost one in five of all unemployed people are out of work more than one yearSource: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)

In the 12 months to March 2015, the proportion of people unemployed for 52 weeks or more increased from 16 per cent to 19 per cent. In addition, the average number of weeks unemployed rose from 34 weeks in March 2014 to 41 weeks in March 2015.

Region March 2014 March 2015Warrnambool and South West 16% 19%Victoria 18% 20%Australia 20% 23%

Since GFC (Oct 2008)Warrnambool and South WestThe long term unemployed (LTU) to unemployment ratio increased by 8 percentage points and duration of unemployed increased by 3 weeks.VictoriaLTU to unemployment ratio increased by 6 percentage points and duration of unemployed increased by 6 weeks.

March 2015 (12 months av)National by age average week unemployed % unemployed 52 weeks or more15-19 24 14%20-24 37 23%25-34 39 20%34-44 45 24%45-54 56 28%55-59 71 32%60-64 75 37%65+ 67 31%

Agriculture in the main employer in the region…Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)

At February 2015, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was the largest employing industry in the region with 19 per cent of total employed. This was followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Education and Training (9 per cent), Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Services (both 8 per cent), Public Administration and Safety (7 per cent) and Construction (5 per cent).

Employment in the Agriculture industry is predominately in two sectors, Sheep, Beef Cattle Grain Farming (48 per cent of all Agriculture employment) and Dairy Cattle Farming (41 per cent of all Agriculture employment).

Industry No. employedAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing 11,100Health Care and Social Assistance 7,700Manufacturing 5,800Education and Training 5,600Retail Trade 4,900Accommodation and Food Service 4,500Public Administration and Safety 4,000Construction 2,700Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2,700

Total employed 59,000

.but falling employmentSource: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)

In the five years to February 2015, employment in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry increased by 3,200. This was followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (1,800), Accommodation and Food Services (1,600) and Public Administration and Safety (1,300).

Over the same period, employment in the Manufacturing industry fell by 3,600. This was followed by Construction (-3,200), Health Care and Social Assistance (-1,800) and Retail Trade (-1,200).

Total employment for the region fell by 3,500 in the 5 years to February 2015.

__________________________________________________________________________Background: 12 months to Feb 2015

Total employment for the region fell by 2,700 (-4 per cent) in the 12 months to February 2015.

Industry SA4 Victoria AustraliaHealth Care and Social Assistance 22% -1% 1%Public Administration and Safety 34% 5% -3%Transport, Postal and Warehousing 30% 4% 2%Education and Training 9% 4% 3%Accommodation and Food Services -6% 7% 5%Retail Trade -24% 8% 2%Construction -43% -3% 2%Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing -17% 4% 7%

Feb 2015_____________________________________Industry No. employedAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing 11,100Health Care and Social Assistance 7,700Manufacturing 5,800Education and Training 5,600

Retail Trade 4,900Accommodation and Food Service 4,500Public Administration and Safety 4,000Construction 2,700Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2,700

And full-time employment also decliningSource: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)

In the 12 months to March 2015, both full-time and part-time employment fell which made for an overall decline in total employment of 3,400. Full-time employment fell by 2,800 which was made up of both males (-1,600) and females (-1,200). Males working part-time fell by 200 and females working part-time fell by 400. Total part-time employment fell by 600 in the 12 months to March 2015.

Fall in full-time and part-time employment by selected industries

Industry Full-time Part-timeAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing -900 -1,500Manufacturing 1,900 -300Construction -1,200 -800Retail Trade -1,000 -500Health Care and Social Assistance -100 1,500

Change in industry over the past decadeSource: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)

There have been some changes to industry over the past decade within the region.

While Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is still the largest employing industry, the proportion of people it employs fell from 22 per cent in February 2005 to 19 per cent in February 2015. Retail Trade has slipped from second largest employing industry in 2005 to fifth in 2015. Education and Training was the seventh largest employing industry in 2005 and is now the fourth in 2015.

Additionally, Health Care and Social Assistance has jumped from third in 2005 to second in 2015

Older workforce in some large employing industriesSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

In August 2011, there were a number of large employing industries in the region whose workforce was predominately aged 45 years and over. Almost three in five (57 per cent) people employed in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry are aged 45 years or more. This was closely followed by Public Administration and Safety (55 per cent), and Education and Training (54 per cent).

Overall, almost half (48 per cent) employees in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 are aged 45 years or more, which is high when compared with Australia (40 per cent).

What’s happening with youth unemployment?Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)

In the five years to March 2015, youth unemployment increased by 12.5 percentage points to 19.4 per cent. The youth unemployment rate for Victoria increased by 3.7 percentage points to 15.1 per cent and for Australia it increased by 1.9 percentage points to 13.5 per cent.

Over the same period, the youth participation rate in Warrnambool and South West fell by 2.0 percentage points to 70.2 per cent. Victoria and Australia also experienced falls in their youth participation rates in the five years to March 2015 (down 1.7 percentage points to 66.0 per cent and down 2.1 percentage point to 66.8 per cent respectively).

Even with the fall in the youth participation rate for Warrnambool and South West, it still remains higher than the state and national average.

Many young people disengagedSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Youth disengagement is an issue in the Warrnambool and South West region. Almost one in five (18 per cent) females in the region are not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed. This is high when compared to Victoria where one in ten (11 per cent) females is either not in the labour force or unemployed.

The highest level of youth disengagement is in the LGA of Glenelg where 28 per cent of females are not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed and 16 per cent of males are also not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed (10 per cent for Victoria).

Lower levels of Year 12 completionsSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

In August 2011, 61 per cent 25 to 34 year olds in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 attained their Year 12 certificate, considerably lower than Victoria (79 per cent) and Australia (75 per cent).

Further, only one in five (21 per cent) 25 to 34 year olds in Warrnambool and South West have attained a Bachelor degree or higher, much lower compared with Victoria (40 per cent).

Education and labour market outcomesSource: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

There is a strong relationship between educational attainment and labour market outcomes. People with higher levels of education are more likely to participate in the workforce, and less likely to be unemployed.

The unemployment rate was high (10.8 per cent) and the participation rate was low (66.2 per cent) among 25 to 34 year olds who did not attained a Year 12 certificate. However, the unemployment rate was low (1.4 per cent) and participation rate high (89.0 per cent) for those 25 to 34 year olds who had attained a Bachelor degree or higher.

Key Survey resultsSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

The Department conducted a Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in the Warrnambool and South West Statistical Area in January 2015 where 300 employers responded.

From the survey results we know 57 per cent of employers recruited in the 12 months before the survey, 17 per cent increased staff numbers and 17 per cent decreased staff numbers.

What employers told us…Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

…Yet some employers still had difficulty filling vacanciesSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

Over half (52 per cent) of employers in the Accommodation and Food Services industry had difficulty recruiting in their most recent recruitment round, this was followed by employers in the Manufacturing industry (35 per cent). By comparison, most employers in the Retail Trade industry found recruiting relatively easy with only 15 per cent reporting difficulty.

Overall, one third of employers in the Warrnambool and South West region had difficulty recruiting.

The recruitment process Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, February 2015

On average, employers in Warrnambool and South West received 7 applicants per vacancy.

Of these applicants, an average of 3 were interviewed.

Of these interviewed applicants, only 2 were considered suitable for the vacancy.

The reasons applicants did not get an interview were:- Lack of relevant experience- Insufficient qualifications or training- Basic employability skills- Applicant not available for required work hours

Lower competition for some occupationsSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

Clerical and Administrative occupations attracted the most applicants with, on average, 11 applicants per vacancy. This was followed by Managers and Professionals (10.4 applicants per vacancy), Machinery Operators and Drivers (10.2 applicants) and Sales Workers (8.6 applicants). Community and Personal Service Workers attracted the least number of applicants (3.5 applicants).

Overall, there were 7.1 applicants per vacancy in the region, lower than all regions (10.3 applicants per vacancy).

Apprenticeships and traineeships in decline…but increasing in AgricultureSource: NCVER, VOCSTATS, Apprentices and Trainees, September 2014

Apprenticeship and traineeship completion rates in the Warrnambool and South West region fell in September 2014. Manufacturing and Accommodation and Food Services had the biggest fall in completions (both 80). On the other hand, apprenticeship and traineeship completions in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry rose by 140 in September 2014.

Why people didn’t get an interviewSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

More than half (54 per cent) of employers recruiting for medium to higher skilled occupations, reported applicants were unsuitable for the job due to lack of relevant experience. This was followed by insufficient qualifications and training (29 per cent).

By comparison, a considerably smaller proportion (38 per cent) of employers recruiting for lower skilled occupations deemed an applicant unsuitable due to lack of relevant experience, this was followed by lack of soft skills.

Employability skills are essential Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

There were a range of general employability skills and personality traits that employers attempting to fill positions commonly viewed as essential for the position, including interpersonal skills, customer focus, communication, attitude, reliability and work ethic.

Many jobs are not advertisedSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, February 2015

Some 55 per cent of employers used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. Internet, Newspaper)

This meant more than two in five (45 per cent) recruiting employers used informal methods ONLY to recruit for vacancies (i.e. Word of Mouth, Approached by job seeker)

Future recruitmentSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

More than one third (39 per cent) of employers expect to recruit in the next 12 months. Further, 40 per cent of employers in the Transport, Postal and Warehousing industry expect to increase staff numbers. This is followed by Other Services (31 per cent), Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (27 per cent) and Retail Trade (24 per cent). Overall, 19 per cent of employers in the region expect to increase staff numbers and 7 per cent expect to decrease staff numbers.

These figures are very similar to what we have found in the combined survey regions (12 months to December 2014) where 19 per cent of all employers surveyed also were looking to increase staff in the 12 months following the surveys and 6 per cent were looking to decrease staff.

Future recruitment opportunities Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015

Future recruitment opportunities exist for Higher to medium skilled occupations such as Registered Nurses, Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses and Motor Mechanics

In addition, there are also recruitment opportunities for lower skilled occupations such as Sales Assistants, Waiters, Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers, Bar Attendants and Baristas, Child Carers and Truck Drivers.

Single greatest concern for the futureSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, February 2015

Over one third of employers (37 per cent) in Warrnambool reported the economy as the single greatest concern for the future.

What are employers looking for in a young person?Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, various regions, October 2013 to April 2014

Employers are looking for positive attitude, motivation, willingness to learn, take direction, punctuality and dependability when recruiting young people.

Young people need to make sure their expectations about the job are realistic, understands the demands of the job, be aware of the level of pay they will receive and have a willingness to start from the bottom.

…and employers tell us that work experience is a good way to startSource: Department of Employment, ‘Improving the employment prospects of young Australians’, selected regions surveyed between October 2013 and April 2014

Experience is often suggested by employers as a key to bettering young people’s employment prospects, as it helps build a range of skills, including the employability skills that employers are looking for. However work experience can be difficult for a young person to acquire.

There are steps that a young person can take to acquire experience.

An individual may be exposed to work experience through a school, or work in a family business. They may also participate in volunteer work or apply for or approach an employer directly for a job that is lower skilled. All these events lead to an individual becoming more experienced and developing an understanding the ‘working world’ and employers’ expectations.

Job search plan – Key tips from employers for young people looking for employmentSource: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, various regions, October 2013 to April 2014

Employers have provided some key tips to help young people gain employment.

• Tailor application/resume to the job• Show interested and communicate well• Demonstrate an understanding of the job• Approach employers directly• Follow up with employers• Pay attention to detail (spelling and grammar)• Presentation and interviews and when approaching employers

Conclusion

• Challenges:• High reliance on one industry - Agriculture• Rising unemployment and long duration of unemployment• Youth leaving the area

Youth unemployment increasing and high youth disengagement

• Ageing workforce, low population growth and future labour supply

• Low education levels• Opportunities

• Growth industries (Health Care and Social Assistance)• Job turnover/retirement as workforce is ageing

• Job seekers need to consider….• Many jobs are not advertised• Education and training• Focus on developing the skills employers are looking for

including employability skills

Tools to assist job seekers

The Department of Employment has many tools to assist people with transitioning into the work force or into another job.

LMIPJob OutlookAustralian JobsMyfutureAustralian JobSearchCareer Quiz

Further Information

More information on labour market conditions and other research on small areas can be found on these web sites

• www.employment.gov.au/LMIP• www.employment.gov.au/SkillShortages• www.employment.gov.au/RegionalReports• www.employment.gov.au/australianjobs• www.joboutlook.gov.au• www.mycareer.com.au• www.govolunteer.com.au• iTunes app store Career Quiz

Thank you.

If you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Employer Surveys Section or Recruitment Analysis Section on:

Tel: 1800 059 439 or Email : recruitmentsurveys@employment .gov.au

Adult Population(2013) - Department of Employment Web viewSource: Department of Employment, Internet...

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