ADS 2030 High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Transcript of ADS 2030 High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
PDWG Study
Plan Revisit Resources
Mapping,
Added\Retired,
consistent with L&R
report, submitted to
WECC in March 2020.
Fix ~ 400 over-loaded
transformers!
Build the 2030 ADS PCM dataset,
starting with the 2028 ADS PCM
Phase 2 – V2.0
Transmission Topology –WECC
2030 HS power flow case starting
with an export hour from the 2028
ADS PCM Phase 2 – V2.0
For resource definition, use
resources submitted to WECC
L&R, in March 2020
DS approved Sept 19, 2019
Coincident
Energy Shapes
Year
2009 For a coincident dispatch of the
Western Power System, the Production
Cost model (PCM)-ADS database has
to have hourly energy shapes from a
single year for loads, hydro, wind,
solar, EE, DG, etc.
DS approved using hourly profiles from year 2009.
Sept 19, 2019
Loads Work with Kevin on
implementing the CEC
Hourly Load Shapes in
California.
Develop hourly forecast from
forecasted monthly peak and energy as
follows:
Update using 2020 LAR submittal
to WECC.
DS approved
April 22,
2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Fix WAPA RM Loads,
PAID, IPEF, BCHA,
AESO
Model missing AAEE
Flex Reserves None in the posted case!
Nader to work to complete
by 7/15?
Energy Efficiency Included in loads—no additional
task.
Model missing AAEE for
CA!
Prior surveying of EE programs by
LBNL led to the discovery that all but
one LSE nets EE from their loads; IPC
develops their load forecast through an
econometric regression that implicitly
captures some future energy efficiency
program activity, but not all of it.
DS approved
April 22,
2020
Demand
Resources
No change from 2028 case Modify with values from 2020 L&R
submittal.
To be discussed April 22, 2020
Pending Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Distributed Generation
BTM included from L&R submittals
Issue: accounting for
BTM in the Round-Trip
Export Hour
DG is also referenced as behind the
meter PV (BTM PV) – mostly large-
scale photovoltaic generation that
is connected behind an end-user
load meter. For California, use
behind-the-load meter generation
assumptions developed by the
CEC.
For other states model LAR Tier 1,
2 & 3 resources that reflects
respective legislated programs
(RPS, DG, EE, etc.)
DS approved
April 22,
2020
2030 ADS PCM
Resources Validate RPS shapes Build the 2030 ADS PCM dataset,
starting with the 2028 ADS PCM
Phase 2 – V2.0
Transmission Topology –WECC
2030 HS power flow case starting
with an export hour from the 2028
ADS PCM Phase 2 – V2.0
For resource definition, use
resources submitted to WECC L&R
in March 2020
DS approved Jan 13, 2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Managing Retired
Plant in PCM Based on 2020 L&R
submittal—Validate entries
in 2030 ADS PCM
PDWG continues to maintain Retired
units on parked bus (islanded bus)
No impact on power flow export
hour
No impact on PCM dispatch
DS approved Jan 13, 2020
Managing Unit
Assumptions. Revisit assumptions for:
Battery Storage
Wind/Solar Curtailment
Retirements that maybe
causing “Unserved
Energy”?
Spillage
Generators Distributed to
Load Area
When export to power
flow case, these units’ are
netted from load
There are about 20,422
MW load reduction due
Recommendation: add a new field in
PCM to track and populate “Model
Type”.
Benefit: when managing generic
assumption, generic data can be
looked up in a table (directly or
indirectly).
Example model type: GT F, CC F,
NDS CC
DS approved Jan 13, 2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
to DG-BTM, DR, and
these units on the peak
hour
Station Service Needs testing. Issue with
accounting for non-
conforming loads in the
Export Hour, using the
Round-Trip
Round Trip on Import: PF→PCM
o Park/exclude SS load from
PCM run
o Create SS bus to generators
mapping
Round Trip on Export: PCM→PF’
o PF’ = PF for PCM Export
Hour
o Export SS load and set
status of load based on
work with vender to implement
logic Include logic to manage
many-to-one, one-to-many and or
many-to-many (SS to Gen)
condition
DS approved Jan 13, 2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Plant Maintenance Revisit after fixing
resources mapping.
Problem
GridView currently uses a LOLP to
allocate maintenance
All Hydro and renewable supply is
considered 100% firm. This distorts
the resulting LOLP calc and
scheduled maintenance
o Maintenance scheduled
during the summer
o PNW maintenance in the
fall
Solution
Manually fixed scheduled
maintenance from GridView
CG has developed a tool to review
and adjusted maintenance.
Scheduled maintenance can be
reviewed by are or region
DS approved:
WECC staff to use
tool (workbook by
Kevin) to correct
for unreasonable
maintenance
patterns
April 22,
2020
Up/Down time Implement updated data by Intertek DS approved April 22,
2020
Ramp Rates Continue to use plant ramp rates from
the 2028 ADS PCM dataset with ramp
rates presented by Yi, PDWG Meeting
– Jan 9, 2018
DS approved April 22,
2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Plant Startup Costs Implement updated data by Intertek DS approved April 22,
2020
Pmin\Pmax PCM –Pmin/Pmax should not
exceed values in reference power
flow case”
PCM: SS values = 0
Round-trip: export hour, use SS
values from the reference power
flow case. This will require post
processing, using a spread sheet.”
Pending
Approval
Heat Rate Curves Kevin & Paul are
working on CCCTs.
At the January 13, 2020 meeting,
DS approved PDWG proposal to
partner with the CEC on updating
thermal plant Heat Rate Curves.
Reasons:
o Unit-specific heat rate curve
Data quality issues
may yield only a full
load HR
o Develop generic curve by
type: ST-Coal, ST-NG,
LMS100, etc.
Develop generic full
load heat rate by
generic type
Implement the
CEC update of
Heat Rate Curves
in the 2030 ADS
PCM dataset.
April 22,
2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Fuel Prices Update
1. Natural
Gas Prices
2. Coal Prices
3. Uranium
and other
fuel prices
Natural Gas Prices – implement
using the CEC annual burner tip
prices and the Northwest Power
Conservation Council’s (NPC)
monthly shapes.
Coal prices – developed by
Kevin Harris, ColumbiaGrid,
reviewed and discussed by
PDWG March 31, 2020
Other fuel Prices – Annual Energy
Outlook 2020 forecast, reviewed
and discussed by PDWG on March
31, 2020”
DS approved fuel
prices for the
2030 ADS PCM
dataset
April 22,
2020
Deflator \ Inflator
Rates Complete DS approves the use of CEC 2019
IEPR Implicit GDP Deflator by
Moody Analytics for data
development in the 2030 ADS PCM
database.
Qualification: CEC has a consent form
Moody Analytics for the use of its
deflator for ADS.
DS approved April 22,
2020
Wheeling Rates No change “Wheeling Rates” cover utility tariffs, the
cost of transporting power over
transmission lines.
Pending
Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Power Flow
Updates Should set to zero for negative
loads (DC ties, DG, EE, etc.) Negative Loads
Negative loads are treated as constant
injections in GridView
Phase Shifter
Settings
Suggest to set MW Limits as +/- Rate A MW Limits are updated by power flow
case, which cause significant congestions
Paths Ratings
Revisit non “PXX” interface
Dentitions
Incorrect modeling
imposes restriction on
flows
HVDC line modeling
WATL and EATL both have
1000 MW limits? (1000 MW,
140 MW)
Losses are set 3% at full capacity
with 100 piecewise linear
representation
Interface - update consistent with Path
Rating Catalog
Some interface not defined in Catalog has
some changes from 2028 ADS
Pending
Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
TBC has 2% losses at full
capacity with 5 piecewise linear
representation
Nomogram
Definition Fix:
New Mexico
Intermountain
Add:
COI restrictions in
CA
Working with StS (Peter Makin) on
collecting updated Nomogram Definitions
Pending
Approval
Review Wind and
Solar Shapes Revisit after fixing
resources mapping
Updates were applied mid-year, 2017,
using the latest NREL shapes from year
2009. several edits are required:
1. Wind – fix plants with >50%
capacity factors
2. Confirm starting hour is consistent
for all hourly shapes
Pending
Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Hydro Data Revisit Hydro modeling;
most hydro do not allow
curtailment nor banking!
BC Hydro caused
overloaded interfaces
PLF following Load –
Wind – Solar
HTC adjustment is
based on first cycle LMP
ranking
Suggest to use MIO
under Look Ahead
Logic
Use shapes from year 2009 for all
hydro in the Western Interconnect
with some exceptions; substitute
shapes from year 2008 (Jun-Aug)
for Core Columbia River 11
projects (Coulee to Bonneville).
This shifts net NW Hydro run-off
from Apr-May to May-Jun.
Fully implement GridView
capability to calculate hydro
modeling coefficients with
available data.
DS approved April 22,
2020
ADS Ancillary
Services Updates
Operating Reserves
Only spinning is modeled!
No flex reserves in the case…
Short term – Use Flex Reserves
determined exogenously by PNNL
using MATLAB and 2020 L&R
data covering year 2030 resources.
Long term: use the GridView
algorithm, currently under
development by PNNL\ABB,
supported by DOE funding and
DS approved April 22,
2020
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
scheduled for implementation in the
fall of 2020
Update Emission
Prices
1. CO2
Use current data
escalated to $2020.
Change year 2028 to
year 2030.
Use $44.30/metric ton CO2 (2018 dollars)
for California supply, in the 2028 ADS PCM
dataset. This is the mid-range price for
CO2, developed by the California Energy
Commission for IEPR 2017, for year 2028.
This results in unspecified import CO2 fee
to California of $18.96/MWh, as specified
in arb
Pending
Approval
Other Prices
1. RPS Dispatch
Costs:
Transmission &
Distribution
Connected
Solar, Wind
Resources, Bio
and Geo-
thermal
Resources
Revisit the impacts on
the dispatch due to
negative pricing in CA
Tier 1) -$25/MWh curtailment (GV uses
dispatch cost for curtailment cost) price
for grid connected renewable variable
resources wind and solar.
Tier 2) -$45/MWh curtailment\dispatch
cost for Federal Hydro Projects in the
Northwest
Bio and geothermal should be modeled as
dispatchable generators.
Pending
Approval
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Behind the Meter PV is not curtailable.
VOM costs for wind and solar is zero.”
BTM PV - - uncheck the spillage box in GV.
Data Development
and Validation
Manual (DDVM)
Use OneNote to document data and how
data is developed for the PCM that allows
for repeating the process into the future.
• OneNote has a robust search
engine that allows for isolating
topics within the references listed
above
• Stakeholders can use OneNote
information as a reference to
document the process in the
DDVM manual
DS Approved Sept 19, 2019
ADS 2030
PCM
Building
Blocks
Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval
Date
Validation of the
ADS 2028 PCM
Case Data and
Parameters.
Partner with the
Regions to review:
1. L&R
2. RPS
3. Generation
Dispatch
4. Path Flows
Initiate the Validation
Process
Pending
Approval
Potential additional resources
ABB: help with implementing thermal data (efficient, fast)
CES: Steven Wallace to help with mapping solar and wind resources?