Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012

Transport Sector Model 2

IntroductionWork Commissioned by SANEDI

SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national

liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009) (IEA, 2011).

Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios

Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios.

Resulting demand for energy in scenarios.CO2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios?

Transport Sector Model 3

Systems Dynamics Considerations

VP Model OutputCalibrated to Sales

VP Model Output

Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010

Transport Sector Model 4

Multi-Model Solution

Future Year Time Budget

Model

Projected P-km

Mode-share

WIDER CGE Model

Projected Income of Household Deciles

2005 - 2030

ANSWER TIMES Model

Energy Demand

Baseline P-km, T-km/

Mode-share

Calibrated Vehicle

Parc Model

3 Income Groups:• Average km/h• Public/private split

Base Year Time Budget

Model

Future FE

Assump.

Transport Sector Model 5

Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model

Vehicle ParcModel

Vehicle km

FuelConsumption

P-km, T-km/Mode-share

ScrappingFactor

VehicleMileage/Decay

Fuel Economy/Improvement

Occupancy

NAAMSAVehicle Sales

Enatis Check

SAPIA/EBCheck

Natmap/SOLCheck

Transport Sector Model 6

Mileage Decay Still a Guess

Transport Sector Model 7

TBM – The Gospel According to Victor & Schafer

Transport Sector Model 8

TBM – Simple Principle

PKM = Total Passenger.km per yearFij = Fraction in motion on mode j by income group i. Sj = Average Speed of mode jTi = Travel Time Budget per person per year for income group iNij = Number of people in income group i using mode j

Transport Sector Model 9

TBM – Salient Assumptions

VariableTraveller Group

Low Income

Middle Income

High Income

1. All Modes       

Ti (hours/day/person) 1.1 1.1 1.1

2. Public - No Access to CarFraction of Budget Fij 58% 58% 58%Average Speed Sj (km/h)

20 20 20

3. Public - Access to CarFraction of Budget Fij 44% 28% 6%Average Speed Sj (km/h)

20 20 20

4. PrivateAnnual HH Income Perc. 50% 30% 20%

Car Ownership/Access 7% 23% 78%Fraction of Budget Fij 25% 52% 89%Average Speed Sj (km/h)

34 34 34

Transport Sector Model 10

TBM – Refinements

• TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low

• Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM

• Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study

• Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified

Transport Sector Model 11

Freight Model – Balances Fuel but Poor Agreement with the SOL

ERC (UCT) State of Logistics (CSIR/US)

Vehicle Type

VPM Freight Utilisation

(2006)

SOL Freight Utilisation

(2006)Freight Type

  (billion ton.km) (billion ton.km) 

LCV 14 58 Metropolitan

MCV 9 64 Rural

HCV 120 108 Corridor

TOTAL 144 230 TOTAL

Transport Sector Model 12

Some Results