ADN Prerequisite Validation Study

Center for Student Success

February 14th 2002

Sacramento, CaliforniaWilliam Armstrong, Ph.D.

Brad C. Phillips, Ph.D.

Steve Spurling, M.A.

Today’s Activities

Review study purposeReview salient literatureExamine ADN student cohortReview past ADN student successReview proposed modelProvide feedback and directionDetermine next steps

ADN Project Study Purpose

Review prerequisite research, emphasis on Nursing programs

Determine what is meant by ADN program completion

Examine ADN program completion in the last several years

Statistically validate the use of the most powerful prerequisites to predict successful ADN program completion

Make recommendations to the Nursing Directors whose colleges participated in the study

FSS Associate Degree Nursing PrerequisiteValidation Study

Consortium Member Schools

ADNDirector

Cabrillo College Kathie WelchCity College of San Francisco Cecile DawydiakCollege of the Canyons Sue AlbertContra Costa College Lynda SchweidCuesta College Mary ParkerFresno City College Diane MooreGlendale College Sharon HallGrossmont College Elisabeth HamelHartnell College Thomas McKayLong Beach City College Mary CallahanLos Angeles Pierce College Marcia SolomonMonterey Peninsula College Debra SchulteMt. San Antonio College Velora FerrisNapa Valley College Margaret CraigSacramento City College Dianne WelchSan Diego City College Jo-Ann RossittoSierra College Margaret WhiteSolano Community College Faith ZobelSouthwestern College Sandra ComstockVentura College Joan Beem

Review of Prior Research

35 Years of Research LiteratureLiterature Covers Era from 1964 to Present Journal Articles Professional Presentations Technical Reports Foundation Studies (Kellogg, Mellon) Institutional Research Reports

(Community Colleges) Professional Associations

Focus of Prior Research

Improve Program and Student OutcomesReduce Attrition

Improve Access

Under-represented Groups

State Licensing Exams

Accreditation

Relevance of Prior ADN Research:

Past as PrologueSimilar Issues Found Across 35 Years of

Research and Evaluation Studies and Current Project

ADN Research Data

Enhancing Student Outcomes

Patricia Cross (1981)

Taxonomy For Analysis of DataInstitutional Variables

Situational Variables

Dispositional Variables

Institutional Data

Line of Research Focusing on Programmatic Aspects of Programs that Promote or Hinder Student SuccessExample: Method of Selection

Lottery

First-Come, First Served

Full time vs. Part time requirements

Costs

Situational Data

Focus on Particular Situation of Student as Mediator of SuccessExample: Hours Worked /Week

Marital Status

Support Network

Transportation Needs

Child Care

Dispositional Data

Most Predominant Line of Research Found in Literature ReviewFocus on Prior Performance of Student

High School and College GPA

Test Scores

Completion of Prior Coursework

Relevant Work Experience in Health Field

Theoretical Considerations

Point-to-Point TheoryThe greater the correspondence between

elements found in the predictor and in the criterion

Improves the power and reliability of prediction of success in training

Relevance of Literature for this Study

Importance of Dispositional Variables in Predicting Completion

Consistent with Prior Research

However Proposed Model Goes Beyond Prior Research by Estimating Probabilities for Success in ADN programs

Program Completion

Three Possibilities: Program courses completed satisfactory Degree received (this is how we started) License received

Decided on course completion

Examination of ADN Completion

The cohort Demographics Success by year Success by method of selection

Nursing StudentsGender1994 - 1998

16

84

7078

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

In P

erce

nt

Distribution Success

Male Female

Nursing StudentsEthnicity1994 - 1998

6 914

51

20

5764

7584

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

In P

erce

nt

Distribution SuccessAf. Am. Asian Hispanic White Other

Nursing StudentsPrimary Language1994 - 1998

89

11

78

65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

In P

erce

nt

Distribution Success

English Non-English

Nursing StudentsAge1994 - 1998

13

28

19 1712

73 1

76 79 80 7874 71

60

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

In P

erce

nt

Distribution Success

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 >55

Program Completion by Selection Method by Year

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Pro

gram

Su

cces

s R

ate

Fixed Ranked

Student Factors in Selection

Student factors related to program completion – within college Factors

Validity evidence

Selection models compared

Bias evidence

Topics of Discussion

Validity Evidence GPA

CollegeCore Biology (Anatomy, Physiology,

Microbiology)English

RepetitionsCore Biology (Anatomy, Physiology,

Microbiology)Minorities with No Repetitions

The Relationship Between GPA in College Courses Before the ADN Program and ADN Program Completion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2 2.5 3 3.5 4

GPA

Perc

ent o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Com

plet

ing

ADN

Prog

ram

College

College Core Biology

College English

The Relationship Between Repetitions of Courses and ADN Program Completion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Repetitions Divided by Courses

Pe

rce

nt

of

Po

pu

lati

on

C

om

ple

tin

g A

DN

Pro

gra

m

College CoreBiologyMicrobiologyRepetitionsA&P Repetitions

Percent of Each Ethnic Group with No Core Biology Repetitions

61%

72% 72% 71%

85%

78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

AfricanAmerican

Asian Latino/a Other White AllEthnic Group

Pe

rce

nt

wit

h N

o R

ep

eti

tio

ns

No Core Biology Repetitions

Forming a Composite

The Variables

Relationship to Program Completion

Some Examples

Variables in the Composite

GPA Core Biology (Anatomy,

Physiology, Microbiology) College-wide English

Repetitions in Core Biology Number of Repetitions divided by

number of courses

Predicted Versus Actual Percent Completing an ADN Program

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Predicted Percent Completing Program

Act

ua

l P

erc

en

t C

om

ple

tin

g P

rog

ram

GPA + Repetitions

GPA Only

Some Examples of the Composite

StudentCollege GPA

Core Biology GPA

English GPA

Core Biology Repetitions

Computed Probability of ADN program Completion

1 2 2 2 0 61%

2 2 2 2 1 36%

3 2.5 3 2 1 47%

4 2.5 2.5 2.5 0 72%

5 2 3 2 0 68%6 2 3 2 0.5 55%7 3 3 3 0.5 71%8 3 3 3 0 80%9 4 4 4 0 91%

Selection Possibilities  

    Program

 

SelectionMethod

  Not Completed

Completed

Selected B A

Unselected C D

 A + B = Selected Students C + D = Unselected Students A / (A + B) = Percent of Selected Students who Complete an ADN Program 

D / (C + D) = Percent of Unselected Students who Complete an ADN Program

(A+D) / (A+B+C+D) = Current Completion Rate

Selection Given the Composite of College, English, and Core Biology GPA, and Core Biology Repetitions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Unselected Percent

Per

cen

t of P

op

ula

tion

Co

mp

letin

g

Pro

gra

m

Current CompletionRate

Selected CompletionRate

Unselected CompletionRate

Unselected Percent, Composite, and Selected Completion Rate

Unselec ted

Percent Composite

Selec ted

Completion

Rate1% 40% 78%5% 56% 79%

10% 64% 80%

15% 68% 81%

20% 71% 82%

25% 74% 83%

31% 76% 84%

41% 79% 85%

52% 82% 86%

62% 84% 88%

75% 87% 91%

85% 89% 91%

90% 90% 93%

Bias Evidence

The Composite prediction of Completion Ethnicity Gender Age Language Background

Effect on Selection

Composite Selection of African American Students

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2% 4% 6% 7% 7% 9% 12%

17%

19%

25%

31%

39%

46%

59%

73%

87%

91%

96%

100%

100%

Unselected Percent

Pe

rce

nt

of

Gro

up

Co

mp

leti

ng

AD

N P

rog

ram Current Completion Rate

Selected Completion Rate

Unselected Completion Rate

Composite Selection of Latino/a Students

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 9% 12%

14%

20%

23%

30%

38%

51%

64%

77%

90%

97%

Unselected Percent

Per

cen

t o

f G

rou

p C

om

ple

ting

AD

N P

rog

ram

Current Completion Rate

Selected Completion Rate

Unselected Completion Rate

Original and New Completion Rates Compared at a Point That Unselects 18% of the Population

Ethnicity Original N New NOriginal Completers

New Completers

Original Completion Percent

New Completion Percent

African American 132 91 78 67 59% 74%Asian 278 219 168 144 60% 66%Latino/a 400 307 307 250 77% 81%Other 525 397 366 293 70% 74%White 1318 1171 1126 1025 85% 88%Total 2653 2185 2045 1779 77% 81%

Programmatic and Student Factors in

Selection

Future Research into Additional Selection Criteria to further improve success rates Interviews Work Experience Recommendations

Setting a Cut Score Your Part

The over-subscription to your programs

Your comfort level with the rejection of potentially successful applicants

Your target program completion rate

Your willingness to change the demographics of your entry population

Next Steps

Where do we go from here?

Additional Slides

The formula

The core biology model compared to the composite model

Program Completion as a Function of GPA and Core Biology Repetitions

The Formula

exp(-1.3907+.3465(College GPA)+.3139(English GPA)+.267(Biology GPA)-1.0279(Biology Reps))__________________________________________________________________________________

(1+exp(-1.3907+.3465(College GPA)+.3139(English GPA)+.267(Biology GPA)-1.0279(Biology Reps)))

Selection Using Core Biology GPA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Unselected Percent

Pe

rce

nt

of

Gro

up

Co

mp

leti

ng

AD

N P

rog

ram

Current Completion Rate

Selected Completion Rate

Unselected Completion Rate

A Comparison of Selection Models - The ADN Program Completion Rate of Selected Students

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10%

15%

17%

21%

24%

31%

38%

41%

52%

63%

66%

75%

93%

100%

Percent of Cohort Unselected

AD

N P

rog

ram

Co

mp

leti

on

Core Biology GPA Composite

A Comparision of Selection Methods The ADN Program Completion Rate

of Unselected Students

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

8%

10

%

14

%

16

%

17

%

21

%

24

%

28

%

33

%

38

%

40

%

44

%

57

%

63

%

64

%

69

%

80

%

93

%

10

0%

Percent of Cohort Unselected

AD

N P

rog

ram

Co

mp

leti

on

Pe

rce

nt

Core Biology GPA Composite

Average GPA needed to Offset Repetitions of Core Biology Courses in order to Achieve a 70% probability of Program

Completion

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75

Repetitions Divided by Courses

Av

era

ge

GP

A

GPA