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Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Elias Papaioannou
European Central Bank
March 2007
Antonio Ciccone
UPF-ICREA
2
Introduction
Large literature finding an empirical link between financial deelopment and (subsequent) growth
Cross-country work linking size of financial markets to (subsequent) growth
(e.g. King and Levine, QJE 1993; Beck et al. JME 2000, JFE 2000)
Cross-country before-after studies linking financial liberalization to growth (e.g.
Henry JFE 2001; Bekaert et al., JFE 2005)
Within country before-after banking deregulation studies, mainly in the US
(review Strahan, 2003), but also France (Bertrand at el., JF 2006) and Italy
(Guiso et al., QJE 2004)
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
3
What are the channels through which finance impacts growth?
— (I) Lowers cost of capital investment (neoclassical view)
— (II) Reallocates capital more quickly to where investment opportunities are (Bagehot, 1873; Schumpeter, 1911)
HOW CAN WE TELL?
Introduction
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
4
-- Financial development lowers cost of capital investment
Rajan and Zingales (1998): If that is the case, financial development should foster growth especially in capital intensive industries (neoclassical international specialization argument)
Channel (I)
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
5
Rajan and Zingales’ (ad-hoc) approach
1. Construct measure of EXTERNAL finance dependence industry i
2. Examine evidence for disproportionate industry growth effect of financial development (FD)
,
( , )
- - i US c
Growth industry country
Industry effects Country effects EXTFIN FD
, ,,
,
i US i USi i US
i US
I CASHFLOWEXTFIN EXTFIN
I
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
6
Channel (II)
-- Financial development faster capital reallocation to industries with good growth opportunities
Wurgler (2001), Fisman and Love (2004, 2007)
1. Construct measure of global growth opportunities of industry i
2. Examine evidence for disproportionate industry growth effect
, , ,i c i US c i US cGrowth CE IE OPPORT FD EXTFIN FD
, ,i i US i USOPPORT OPPORT SALESGR
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
7
Suggestive reduced-form approach to answer important questions.
But ad-hoc, which leads to key questions remaining unanswered. For example,
-- is the non-robustness due to SALESGR being a less-than-perfect measure of investment opportunities?
-- what is the role of measurement error introduced by using US proxies for global shifts?
Channel (II) continued…
Open Questions – Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
8
THIS PAPER
CONCEPTUAL-- Theoretical framework to study link between financial
development, capital reallocation across industries, and growth (tailored to the data we have)
This allows us to:-- Identify the problems of using US proxies for global industry
characteristics-- Propose an approach to resolve these problems
Main ESTIMATION result-- Industries with better (global) investment opportunities grow
faster in countries with greater financial development
Introduction
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
9
Presentation Overview
1. Theoretical framework
2. Model estimation issues
1. Bias when employing US (or any other country) data to construct global industry characteristics
2. Dealing with measurement error (bias)
3. Data
4. Results
1. Using US-based proxy only
2. Accounting for measurement error
5. (IN)Sensitivity of estimation results
6. Summary
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Introduction
10
Theoretical Framework
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
-- many open economies
-- many industries, with country-specific varieties
-- countries may differ in industry productivity (Ricardian element) and may face different demand for their varieties
-- industry productivity and demand may shift globally; these shifts result in changes in the optimal amount of capital across industries
-- countries may also differ in their level of financial development; lower development may slow down adjustment of capital to its target
11
Theoretical Framework: Perfect Financial Markets
Unexpected and anticipated
productivity and demand shifts
at the industry level
Growth in the optimal capital stock (target capital) at the industry-country
level
Industry value added growth
Frictionless Equilibrium (Perfect Capital Markets)
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
12
Theoretical Framework: IMPerfect Financial Markets
Unexpected and anticipated
productivity and demand shifts
at the industry level
Growth of target capital at the industry-country level
Industry value added growthActual capital growth
Financial
UNDERDevelopment
WEDGE
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
13
Model
, ,
, , , ,
1
1, ,
0 0
(1 )11
, , (1 ), , , , , ,
, 0
, , , , , ,
Preferences
ln 0 1
Demand
Supply
i c t
i c t i c t
I C
t i c t
Ci c t
i c t t i c t i c ti t
i c t i c t i c t
U x B dc di
px B M P p B dc
P
Z A K
IndustriesCountries
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
14
Long-Run Equilibrium: Perfect Financial Markets
, , , , , ,
* * *, ,
, ,
*, , , , , , , , , ,
1* 1, , , , , ,
,
or
ln ln ln Country-effect ln
i c t i c t i c t
ti c t t
i c t
i c i c T i c T i c S i c S i c
ti c t t i c t i c t t
i t
rA p r p MC
A
Y p Z p Z K
rK M B A r
P
Increases in target capital reflect anticipated future industry growth opportunities (due to technical change, demand shifts, and changing prices of international competitors)
Target capital (no frictions)
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
15
Financial UNDERDevelopment and Capital Adjustment
c
*,ln i cK
*, ,ln 1 ln 0 1i c c i c cK K
,ln i cK
1
0
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Financial Development
16
Financial Underdevelopment and Value Added Growth
* *, , , ,
*, ,
Price adjustment:
ln (1 ) ln ln ln
Value added and target capital growth:
ln 1 ln
i c i c i c i c
i c c i c
p K K MC
Y K
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
17
Financial UNDERDevelopment and Growth
c
*,ln i cK
,ln i cY
1
0
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Financial Development
18
Anticipated productivity shifts, demand shifts, and target capital growth
, , , ,
* * *, ,
ln ; ln
ln ln ln
i c c i i c i c c i i c
i c c i i c
A a a a B b b b
K K K
Global industry investment
opportunityCountry effect
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
mean zero
mean zero
19
Estimating equations
*, ,
* * *, , ,
(1) ln Country-effects [(1 ) ] ln
(2) ln ln ln ln
i c c i i c
i US i US US i i US
Y K
K K K K
Growth Equation
Industry US-based Proxy of Investment Opportunities
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
20
Measurement error
, ,
, ,
and are independent
and more strongly correlated with each other
when , have similar financial development
i c i US
i c i q
c q
Scenario 2: Non-classical measurement error
Scenario 1: Classical measurement error
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
21
Non-classical measurement error: Extreme Example
-- Countries with high financial development have idiosyncratics
just like the US
-- Countries with low financial development have idiosyncratics
that are independent of the US
22
Non-classical measurement error: True values
[(1 ) ]HIGH
LOW 1HIGH
[(1 ) ]LOW
True values
0
1
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Financial Development
23
[(1 ) ]HIGH
LOW HIGH
[(1 ) ]LOW
True values
0
1
Least squares
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Financial Development
Non-classical measurement error: Estimated values
24
Combining classical and non-classical measurement error
True values
0
1
Least squares
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Financial Development 1
Sign of least-squares bias unclear
25
Data
1. Country-Industry level (from UNIDO)• Value added growth in the 1980s
• 66-67 countries; 27-28 manufacturing industries (3 digit ISIC)
2. Country-level (various sources)• FD: main measure is private credit to GDP
• Other control variables: GDP, institutions, human capital
3. Industry-level (NBER US manufacturing database)• US industry capital growth
• Other proxies of industry growth opportunities used in the literature
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
26
Least squares estimation: Basic
, ,ln Country-effects Industry-effects lni c c i USY FD K
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
27
Least squares estimation: With controls
, , ,ln CE IE lni c c i US c i USY FD K FD EXTFIN
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
28
Least Squares: Opportunities and finance dependence
OLS Robust OLS Robust(1) (2) (3) (4)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.3183 0.2927 0.2905 0.2261[FD X CAPGR ] (3.08) (4.47) (2.34) (3.22)
Finance X External Finance Dependence 0.0109 0.0146[FD X EXTFIN ] (1.28) (3.09)
Industry Share in Total Manufacturing -0.1955 -0.0803[SHARE80i,c ] (3.79) (3.47)
adj. R-squared 0.284 0.299Countries 67 67 66 66Observations 1607 1607 1589 1589Country Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes YesIndustry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
External Finance
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le IIT
able II
Rajan and Z
ingales (1998)
29
IV approach to country-idiosyncratics
, , ,ln Country-effects Industry-effects lni c c i US i cY FD K u
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Why is least squares biased?
-- US capital growth mismeasures global growth opportunities
-- US capital growth idiosyncratics may be correlated with idiosyncratics of financially developed countries (but not financially underdeveloped countries)
Solution:
Instrument US capital growth by a variable that does not reflect US idiosyncratics
30
Instrument: Predicted US industry growth using industry-country growth outside of the US
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
,
,
ln Country-effect
ln
i c i i c
PREDICTED EST ESTi US i i US
Y FD
Y FD
1st step: Run the regression (without US data!)
2nd step: Obtain growth at US level of financial development
31
Instrument Relevance: Predicted and Actual US Industry Growth
slope=0.49
t-stat=3.54
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
382
331
372
314
354
324
351
361
323
341
369
381
313
384
321
371
342
383
311
385
356
353
332
355
352
390322
362
-.02
0.0
2.0
4.0
6C
apit
al G
row
th in
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es (
CA
PG
R)
0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1Industry value added growth at the US level of financial development,
predicted using data on all countries except the US (predictions based on OLS)
32
Predicted and Actual US Industry Growth (Robust Estimation)
slope=0.68
t-stat=4.71
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
382
331
372
314
354
324
351
361
323
341
369
381
313
384
321
371
342
383
311
385
356
353
332
355
352
390322
362
-.04
-.02
0.0
2.0
4.0
6C
apit
al G
row
th in
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es (
CA
PG
R)
0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1Industry value added growth at the US level of financial development,
predicted using data on all countries except the US (predictions based on a robust regression)
33
Financial Development and Growth:Instrumental Variable Estimates
IV IV-R
(1) (2)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 1.1683 0.6872[FD X CAPGR ] (4.01) (3.72)
Countries 67 67Observations 1607 1607Industry Fixed-Effects Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le IIIT
able III
Mirror Table-Sensitivity
LS estimate=0.3
34
Comparisons Other Measures of Growth Opportunities
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le IVT
able IV
Investment Opportunities Proxy:
IV IV
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Finance X Sales Growth -0.1523 0.1779 1.0567[FD X SALESGR ] (0.93) (1.85) (3.76)
Finance X Value Added Growth -0.0579 0.1689 0.9032[FD X VAGR ] (0.46) (1.97) (3.81)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.4540 0.3761[FD X CAPGR ] (2.55) (2.43)
adj. R-squared 0.284 0.281 0.284 0.282Countries 67 67 67 67 67 67Observations 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
OLS
Sales Growth [SALESGR ] Value Added Growth
OLS
35
Why are Results with US Sales Growth Weak?
US industry sales growth=
Capital growth [which depends on anticipated growth opportunities]
+Unexpected shocks to productivity and demand
But, not even the best financial systemn can reallocate capital in response to shocks that could not have been anticpated.
36
Comparisons Other Measures of Growth Opportunities
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le IVT
able IV
Investment Opportunities Proxy:
IV IV
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Finance X Sales Growth -0.1523 0.1779 1.0567[FD X SALESGR ] (0.93) (1.85) (3.76)
Finance X Value Added Growth -0.0579 0.1689 0.9032[FD X VAGR ] (0.46) (1.97) (3.81)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.4540 0.3761[FD X CAPGR ] (2.55) (2.43)
adj. R-squared 0.284 0.281 0.284 0.282Countries 67 67 67 67 67 67Observations 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
OLS
Sales Growth [SALESGR ] Value Added Growth
OLS
37
Comparisons Other Measures of Growth Opportunities
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le IVT
able IV
Investment Opportunities Proxy:
IV IV
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Finance X Sales Growth -0.1523 0.1779 1.0567[FD X SALESGR ] (0.93) (1.85) (3.76)
Finance X Value Added Growth -0.0579 0.1689 0.9032[FD X VAGR ] (0.46) (1.97) (3.81)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.4540 0.3761[FD X CAPGR ] (2.55) (2.43)
adj. R-squared 0.284 0.281 0.284 0.282Countries 67 67 67 67 67 67Observations 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607 1607Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
OLS
Sales Growth [SALESGR ] Value Added Growth
OLS
38
Endogeneity of Financial Development and Measurement Error in US-based proxy of opportunities
Instrumental Variable Technique FULL (Double) IV FULL (Double) IV-R(1) (2)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.7206 0.6429[FD X CAPGR ] (2.53) (2.70)
Countries 67 67Observations 1607 1607Industry Fixed-Effects Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le VII
Tab
le VII
Sensitivity Analysis
39
Sensitivity Analysis
1. Alternative measures of financial development Table
2. Other determinants of industry growth dynamics Table
3. Income differences (excl. low income countries) Table 4. Other measures of institutional quality and investment opportunities
(legal inefficiency; property rights protection) Table 5. Further accounting for correlated industry shocks Table 6. State ownership of banks as a measure of financial underdevelopment
Table
Theoretical Framework – Estimation – Data – Results
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Sensitivity Analysis
40
Summary
1. Theoretical framework linking global industry productivity and demand shifts, financial development and growth.
2. When using only US data to proxy global industry investment opportunities. two countervailing measurement error biases
3. IV approach to account for country idiosyncratics
Combine two noisy measures of global investment opportunities:
– Actual capital growth in the US
– Average non-US value added growth in a hypothetical country with well-developed capital markets
4. Main empirical finding: In countries with well-developed financial markets, industries with good investment opportunities grow faster
Conclusion
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
41
Presentation Appendix Tables
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Appendix Tables
42
Other Determinants of Industry Growth Dynamics
OLS Robust OLS Robust OLS Robust
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Finance X Invest. Opport. 0.3877 0.3471 0.3828 0.3666 0.3529 0.3223[FD X CAPGR ] (3.72) (5.26) (3.51) (5.41) (3.39) (4.79)
Property Rights X Intangibility -0.0007 0.0001[PROP X INTANG ] (0.41) (0.94)
Finance X Intangibility -0.0036 -0.0018[FD X INTANG ] (1.65) (1.04)
Schooling Interaction 0.0020 0.0009[SCH X HCINT ] (2.06) (1.90)
adj. R-squared 0.343 0.461 0.299 0.450 0.312 0.459Countries 64 64 66 66 62 62Observations 1589 1589 1589 1589 1534 1534Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Claessens-Laeven (2003) Braun (2003) Ciccone-Papaioannou
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
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IS
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Appendix TablesSensitivity Analysis
43
Other Measures of Financial Development
Financial Development MeasureOLS Robust OLS Robust OLS Robust(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.2798 0.2731 0.2402 0.1474 0.4294 0.2566[FD X CAPGR ] (2.63) (3.64) (3.95) (3.82) (3.80) (3.90)
adj. R-squared 0.282 0.441 0.303 0.478 0.304 0.477Countries 67 67 44 44 44 44Observations 1607 1607 1119 1119 1119 1119Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
BANKCR MCAP TF
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
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Appendix TablesSensitivity Analysis
44
Accounting for Economic Development
OLS IV OLS IV(1) (2) (3) (4)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 0.2662 0.7840 0.3063 0.8990[FD X CAPGR ] (2.49) (3.21) (3.10) (4.38)
Income X Investment Opportunities 0.0680 0.3612[Y X CAPGR ] (0.89) (2.02)
adj. R-squared 0.284 0.321Countries 67 67 54 54Observations 1607 1607 1335 1335Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
All countries No Low Income
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le VT
able V
Appendix TablesSensitivity Analysis
45
Accounting for the Interaction between other Institutional Factors and Investment Opportunities
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Finance X Invest. Opport. 0.3193 1.0782 0.2906 0.9893[FD X CAPGR ] (2.66) (3.47) (2.72) (3.96)
Law X Invest. Opport. -0.1891 -0.0472 -0.4760 0.0040[LAWINEF X CAPGR ] (2.40) (0.52) (3.06) (0.02)
Property X Invest. Opport. 0.1805 0.0925 0.4020 0.0985[PROP X CAPGR ] (2.63) (1.31) (1.96) (0.51)
adj. R-squared 0.307 0.311 0.283 0.286Countries 58 58 58 58 65 65 65 65Observations 1481 1453 1481 1453 1572 1572 1572 1572Industry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesCountry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
OLS IV OLS IV
Legal System Inefficiency (LAWINEFF ) Property Rights (PROP )
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Tab
le VI
Tab
le VI
Appendix TablesSensitivity Analysis
46
Further Accounting for Correlated Industry Shocks Across Financially Developed Countries
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
An
alogous to T
able III
An
alogous to T
able III
Appendix TablesSensitivity Analysis
IV IV-R
(1) (2)
Finance X Investment Opportunities 1.3434 0.7857[FD X CAPGR ] (3.63) (3.64)
Countries 67 67Observations 1607 1607Industry and Country Fixed-Effects Yes Yes
First Stage
Predicted Investment Opportunities 0.3088 0.5392(2.99) (5.15)
R-squared 0.24 0.449F-score 8.95 26.54Observations (Industries) 28 28
Mirror Table
47
(1) (2) (1) (2)
-0.6506 -0.4781 -0.5675 -0.2261(3.76) (2.79) (3.14) (3.22)
0.1782 0.1166(2.46) (1.03)
adj. R-squared 0.3586 0.3536 0.383 0.384Countries 55 55 47 47Observations 1434 1434 1243 1243Country Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes YesIndustry Fixed-Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes
All Countries
Country State Ownership of Banks X Investment Opportunities
Excl. Low Income
Country Income X Investment Opportunities
Financial Development - State Ownership of Banks
Sensitivity Analysis
Ciccone and Papaioannou: Adjustment to Target Capital, Finance, and Growth
Appendix Tables