ADEME Energy and Climate Visions

2030-2050

Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department

ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management

• Objective of this morning session : • Focus on methods used to frame scenarios

(less on emphasizing the outcome of a given model or approach)

Example: ADEME Visions 2030 2050

• Context : work launched by the President of ADEME in 2012 (ADEME CEO F.Loos before the DNTE – National debate leaded in 2013)

• A collaborative exercise (a small coordination team and about sixty experts involved)

• Visions…and not scenarios (roadmap with political steps…) built on our core skills : renewable energies and energy efficiency.

• 4 tools/models used for quantification issues : • Technical : MEDPRO• Electrical system: EOD• Agriculture and land use : Mosut• Macroeconomic evaluation : 3ME

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Objective and context

Visions 2030 2050 :A kind of tryptic

• A technical description (2012)

• A macroeconomic evaluation (2013)

• A social translation in the daily life of households (2014)

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Two Visions Same scope…

• Energy consumption: buildings, transportation (but international air and maritime bunkers), agriculture and industry

• Renewable energy production …yet distinct perspectives

• 2030: current trends « + » a significant increase in energy efficiency and renewables : exploratory , « what if », foresight, positive method

• 2050: the 75%-decrease-target is set, then achievement conditions are identified : « how » to reach it, backcasting, normative method

• At last, there is an issue to identifie a possible gap between the two perspectives 4

Methodology Technical scenarios (model : MEDPRO, MOSUT, EOD)

1. Inventory of renewable resources and energy efficiency potential with sectoral experts2. Definition of a set of possibilities, with respect to technical and economic criteria (ROI identified)3. Identification of values and consistency checking4. Energy consumption and renewable energy production projections

Economic conditions and macroeconomic impacts

(model: THREEME)1. Identification of necessary price-signals2. Simulation of the macroeconomic impact

Social translation1. Identification of type of households to describe2. Quantification of all the daily actions in terms of energy

and CO2

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Summary

Distinct perspectives• 2030: an ambitious yet realistic vision• 2050: a 75%-decrease (compared with 1990) in GHG emissions

Focus: energy (consumption and production) and GHG emissions

Key-messages• 2030: energy efficiency and the share of renewables could

increase significantly• 2050: the fourfold decrease in GHG emissions is achievable

with efficiency, renwables and some change in our habits and behaviour

Remarks• Sources of figures

2010: INSEE, CCTN, SOeS, CEREN 2030 - 2050: ADEME estimates (but exogeneous variables)

• Reference years: 2010 for energy; 1990 for GHG emissions

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Main results

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Energy

GHG emissions• -40% by 2030 • -75% by 2050

Exogeneous variables vs ADEME’s assumptions

Exogeneous variables

(*) henceforth « hh »

ADEME’s assumptions• Unit consumption: energy efficiency• Demand: organizational efficiency, non-disturbing

changes in ways of living (ex: miles/year/cap, number of TV sets/hh, etc.) 8

2010 2030 2050 References

Macro

Population (m) 62.9 68.5 74.1 INSEE

Number of person/household (*) 2.3 2.17 2.05 INSEE

Brent (US$2010/bbl) 78 135 230 IEA

GDP (%/year) 1.8% CAS

Sectoral

New homes (m/year) 0.310

0.35 0.3 DGEC

Energy-intensive industrial output (t/year)

depends on the product DGEC

Share of nuclear power 77% 48% 18%-48%

2030 - Residential

Urban planning: share of multi-family new buildings increases (from 42% in 2010 to 50%)

Thermal uses• Energy-efficient retrofitting: 0.5 m homes/year• Comfort: unchanged, if not improved (e.g. air-conditioning)• Equipment

Heat-pumps (20% of space heating useful energy consumption), Thermodynamic water-heaters, solar water heaters (5% of hot

water useful energy consumption)

Electrical appliances: • Stock of conventional appliances (fridge, washing-machine,

TV,etc.) as efficient in average in 2030 as today’s most efficient appliances

• Complementary electricity consumption (cell phone, IT’s, etc.) is constant (1,000kWh/year/household) 9

2030 – Residential - Results

Per-use consumption Type of delivered energy

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2030 – Commercial and public services buildings

Organisation: floor area/employee is constant Thermal uses

• Building stock thermal performance and equipments are significantly improved

• Comfort is increased (50% of employee work in air-conditioned buildings)

Business-related electricity consumption • 10% decrease per employee by 2030 compared with 2010

Result: a 16% decrease in final energy consumption

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Paradigm: constant individual mobility and modal split

Freight: a 20% increase in transported mass (tkm)

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2030 – Transportation

2030 – Transportation

Passenger transportation: emergence of mobility services (account for 10% of intra-city passenger flows )

Results in terms of sales and stock :

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2030 – Transportation - Results

Final energy consumption Type of energy

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2030 – Industry Assumption: industrial recovery

• Energy-intensive products: pre-crisis (physical) output quantity is recovered, if not slighlty increased

• Other industries: grow roughly according to GDP growth Energy-efficiency: 20% in average (less than 1%/year)

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Recycling (materials as well as heat losses) taken into account

Result: a 10% decrease in final energy consomption

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2030 – Industry - Results

2030 – Food, forest and agriculture No-regret changes of habits

• A 2/3 decrease in food wastages• Current trends are protracted (e.g. decrease in meat

consumption) Energy efficiency: a 25% decrease in energy

consumption of agriculture buildings, 20% decrease use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers

Land management : land sealing pace is two-fold decreased, + 0,2 Mha of forest in 2030

Results : - 11% in livestock related impacts (CH4, N2O), and an low decrease in energy consumption

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2030 – Energy production (1) Resources:

• Solid biomass and methanization are both significantly increased

• Land use competition is not exacerbated (3Mtoe of biofuels, compare to 2,4)

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Renewable power• Wind: On-shore (34 GW) and off-shore (12 GW) • PV: 33 GW (very close to RTE New mix in terms of installed capacity but with 20% less on demand)

Remark: the load curve hourly matches power generation

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2030 – Energy production (2)Focus on electrical system

2030 – Energy production - Results (3)

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Result• Share of renewables: 35%• Share of renewable power:

46%

Evaluation of 2030 Vision

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2050 – An overview Differences with the 2030 scenario

• The 75% decrease in GHG emissions is set as a target• Changes in ways of living allowed when convergence of

interests Buildings: energy efficient stock + reinforced

densification (stop of urban sprawling after 2030, and 50/50 between house

Transportation: mobility services develop (30% of urban flows) + GasVeh (of which 55% of biomethane) and electricity, 15% less of mobility/pers/year

Food and agriculture: French diet heads towards FAO’s recommendations

Tertiary : 20% decrease in surface area per employee Industry: 2010-2030 trends are protracted Results:

• Final energy consumption is two-fold decreased• 70% of renewables (final energy)

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2050 – Food

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2050 – Transportation

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2050 – Transportation

2050 – Energy consumption

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2050 – Renewables

N.B. concerning power generation, the share of renewable power ranges from 47% to 77%, according to the assumed share of nuclear power

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Tools : 3ME, a multisectoral macroeconomic model (new Keynesian)

Method : Define a baseline - reference scenario, consider the technical assumptions

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Macro Economic evaluationADEME – OFCE - TNO

• Energy balance• Signal-price /

Carbon tax• 325€/tCO2 in 2050• Total : 750€/tep in 2050(must be compared to the current implicit tax level : 243€t/CO2 on gasoline)

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Investments

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• GDP • Jobs

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Concluding remarks

Beyond energy and GHG• NOx, SO2,PM2.5 and COVNM three-fold decreased by 2030

• Likely (yet not quantified) reduction in other externatities : • Transportation: noise, road casualties, congestion, health (cycling)• Buildings: thermal comfort• Food: meat-overconsumption-related deseases

Economics• An additional 300€/tCO2 price-signal is required by 2050 (in

ADEME scenario, not in absolute terms)• Macroeconomic impacts:

• Recessionary: increase in energy prices (loss of competitiveness) and decrease in conventional energy production

• Expansionary: decrease in fossil energy imports, increase in new business activities (renewables, high-quality building retrofitting)

• THREEME-based macroeconomic simulations show that the global impact on both GDP and employment is positive by 2050

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• A description of the daily life and behaviour of 8 families in different context (age, children or not, localization, income…)

• 4 pages of narrative description and an energy balance (kWh and CO2) for each household compatible with the global ADEME vision 33

Social translation Just released

Attempt to conclude : Science for energy scenarios ?

• Scenario is a way (with differents tools) to look forward

• And if science is : • Rigorous and checkable method investigation• Open to criticism and discussions

• Probably Yes

• But if science is : • Reproductible …

• Maybe not• Because between two periods : we can see huge changes in

knowledge, technologies (V2G, PtG…), values, belief, learning cost curve…

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