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![Page 1: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change
EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar
Brussels – 7 July 2010
Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy
KfW Development Bank
![Page 2: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
![Page 3: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
![Page 4: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Model Results Seasonal Changes of River Run-off in Europe(2071-2100/1961-90; SRES A2)
Source: EEA, 2008
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Change of Water Runoff for 2090 relative to 1990 (IPCC SRES A1B)
Source: IPCC AR4 WG I, 2007
Dotted areas: good model agreement
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Uncertainties of Climate Change Projections
● Different model families involved in model inter/comparisons for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and similar fora
● Uncertainties of model projections vary regionally
● Certainty of model projections:
temperature > precipitation > run-off > climate variability > frequency and severity of
extreme events
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Main Effects of Climate Change on Water
● Rainfall, runoff, stream flow, groundwater recharge, water availability from changes in annual averages;
● Variability and extremes, floods and droughts, more intense and more frequent storms;
● Temperature – resulting in aridity, increasing evaporation and irrigation water demand, glacier and snow melt, loss of storage, change in water quality;
● Sea level changes – resulting in impacts on estuaries, deltas, and seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers; and
● Plant water use efficiency from changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration.
Source: CCCD, 2009
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Evolution of Number of Great Natural Catastrophes
Source: MunichRe, 2010
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Evolution of Global Losses From Natural Catastrophes (USD bln p.yr)
Source: MunichRe, 2010
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Equador: Increase of Flooding Desasters (<50 casualties / <500 houses)
Source: UNISDR,
2009
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Section Summary
● Damages due to climate change are already taking place, costs are largely incurred by households, private and public sector in developing countries
● Impact signal from climate change as recorded by insurance signals is robust but influenced by economic growth, growing population and improved communications
● The poorest are most vulnerable (poor houses, dependence on agriculture, no financial resources for response measures) but their losses bear little significance to insurance and economic statistics
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Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
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Adaptation Focus: Vulnerability vs. Impacts
Source: Klein & Persson, 2008
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Local Options in Water Resources Management
● Development of rainfed agricultural systems that are easy to operate and maintain locally;
● Improved management of soil moisture in rainfed areas;● Increased investment in water harvesting, small storage,and supplementary
irrigation schemes;● Small community-based irrigation schemes;● Development of water supply to meet the needs of multiple and diverse water
users;● Improved water access for livestock in arid and semiarid areas; and● Other actions such as demand management, conjunctive surface and
groundwater management, payments for environmental services, and so on.
Source: Hedger and Cacouris, 2008
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National Options in Water Resources Management
● Integrate climate variability and climate change in water policy frameworks;● Encourage an integrated approach in water management planning that cuts
across land, agriculture, and mining sectors, taking into account water productivities as a basis for reallocations;
● Diversify economies and incomes;● Support the decentralization of water resources management (or focus on
catchments and river basins);● Ensure that climate risk information is available and used to inform water
planning strategies; and● Empower communities to engage with local and national governments to help
meet their water needs.
Source: Hedger and Cacouris, 2008
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McKinsey on Adaptation to Climate Change (August 2009) – Case Study Maharastra (India)
http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Images/Page_Images/Offices/SocialSector/PDF/ECA_Shaping_Climate%20Resilent_Development.pdf
Source: ECA/ McKinsey, 2009
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Estimated Annual Adaptation Needs – Public Sector (USD bln p.yr)
17
Sector UNFCCC, 2007 for 2030
World Bank, 2009 2010-50
Infrastructure 2-41 14-30
Coastal zones 4 30
Fresh water provision and flood protection
9 14-19
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
7 7-8
Health 5 2
Extreme events n.a. 7
Total 27-66 78-90
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Annual DC Adaptation Needs (USD bln 2010-50): All Infrastructure Except Coastal Protection
18Source: World Bank – 2009
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Developing Country Adaptation Needs (2010-50):Costal Protection (USD bln p.yr)
19Source: World Bank – 2009
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2020
Annual Financing Needs of Developing Countries
Adaptation [billion EUR
p.a.]
Mitigation[billion EUR
p.a.]
Thereof Forests [billion EUR p.a.]
Annual global R & D [billion EUR
p.a.]
5 – 87 55 – 80 15 – 25 5 – 30
low share of private sector
high private sector: 38 (EU)
low share of private sector
medium to high share of private
sector
2005 constant Euros, average for 2013-2020, expressed as grant equivalents
Source: EU COM, McKinsey, World Bank, UNFCCC
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Section Summary
● UNFCCC (2007), World Bank (2009), Parry et al. (2009), ECA (2009) and other studies are milestones to understand adaptation needs
● Key uncertainties: development deficit, definition of long-term baseline, scope, climate impacts, adaptation definition & implementation
● UNFCCC(2007) and World Bank (2009) suggest that adaptation is mainly a public sector task – which is linked to their perspective
● Not all sub-sectors quantified in detail: e.g. ecosystem-stabilisation, private households, commercial buildings & industrial infrastructure
● While overall numbers are high they are probably underestimates: based on schematic approaches and incomplete coverage
● Beyond immeadiate capacity building, adaptation and development agendas cannot be disaggregated
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Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
![Page 23: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Visual Impressions From Copenhagen
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Key Elements: The Copenhagen Accord
● Agreed informally between 25 governments on the last day of Copenhagen● Final plenary only „takes note“ of Copenhagen Accord
● 2°C target agreed for 21st century● Submission of supported and unsupported NAMAs until 31 January 2010● Support of adaptation activities by means of predictable and sustainable
funding, technology and capacity development● New and additional financing of 30 billion USD over period 2010 to 2012 (“Fast-
Start Funding“)● Annually 100 billion USD of climate financing from public and private sources
via bilateral and multilateral channels● Creation of “High-Level Advisory Group“ on climate financing ● Framework for a “Copenhagen Green Climate Fund“ ● Review of the Accord by 2015 (after publication of IPCC AR5)
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25
Public Climate Financing to Developing Countries: New Commitments of Grants and Loans in 2008
Globally >18 billion USD of new commitments: grants and loans
KFW with 2.4 $ billion of climate financing, thereof 600 million adaptation
Source: SEI, GEF & German Parliament
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Today: Parallel Implementing Channels
Industrialised Country Budgets & International Sources of Finance
Developing Countries: Budgets, Programmes, Projects, Companies, Civil Society
Bilateral Financing Institutions
Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3
World Bank CIFs
CTF SCF
Multilateral Deve-lopment Banks
UNFCCC Climate Funds
Multilateral Deve-lopment Banks & UN Agencies
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Good Reasons for the Multi-Channel System
Good Reasons:● Full use of existing implementation capacity for +25% p.yr. growth ● Competition and choice innovation and efficiency● Various interfaces for involvement of different private sector actors● Attracts money from different types of sources● Robustness – cannot be blocked by a single country or country group● In line with Article 11 of the UNFCCC
Challenges: ● Transparency and coordination:
High level forum, UN registry or OECD-DAC
27
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Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
![Page 29: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
EU Financing Institutions WG on Adpatation to Climate Change: History and Objectives
EU Financing Institutions Working Group on Adpatation to Climate Change● Incepted in February 2010 in Luxembourg● Current members: AFD, CEB, EBRD, EIB, KFW● Adaptation related new commitments in 2008: >700 million Euros
Priority actions● Develop a common set of definitions on adaptation;● Agree a concept note on the technical and financial principles for adaptation financing;● Compile a resource base of tools and other initiatives (complete or under preparation)
for mainstreaming climate risk management;● Develop a joint toolkit for climate change risk management to be used by partners ● Select best-practice projects for testing the above principles and practices
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30
KFW Water Management in JordanP
rob
lem
Ap
pro
ach
Eff
ects
• Severely limited water resources• Population growth and climate change
increase water stress• Water loss of 30% due to pipe leaks
• Investments in rehabilitation measures in the water supply network
• Repairing and replacement of old house connections
• KfW provides financing & technical advice
• Reduction of water losses• Improvement of water security• Increase of supply of drinking water• Adaptation to climate related water stress
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31
KFW Cyclone Protection in IndiaP
rob
lem
Ap
pro
ach
Eff
ects
• Flood waves and heavy rainfalls are often companions of cyclones that frequently occur in the state of Orissa
• Cooperation with the German Red Cross• Construction of protective buildings that can
also be used for communal meetings• Preventive actions: establishment of a local
emergency management, emergency training and an early warning system
• Creation of fund to cover maintenance costs
• Improved protection against cyclones• Support of communal institutions • Adaptation to climate related extreme events
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32
KFW Adaptation Program in North-East IndiaP
rob
lem
Ap
pro
ach
Eff
ects
• Significant climate changes already notable: less rain, higher temperature, more floods
• High vulnerability and low adaptive capacity
• Program-based approach, selection of sub-projects according to pre-identified criteria (e.g. expected benefits, feasibility, no-regret)
• Funding adaptation measures across different sectors: protection of housing areas against floods, up-dating irrigation systems, adjustment of forest/agricultural/fisheries management etc.
• Convergence with national schemes
• Inter-linkage of adaptation and development planning – increased awareness
• Full-scale analysis of vulnerability and adaptive capacity by national researchers
• Funding of pilot adaptation measures
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Adaptation Portfolio of KFW in 2008
Adaptation Portfolio KfW Development Bank 2008
Sub-Sahara Africa
Asia
Europe, Caucasus
Latin America
Mena
0 50 100 150 200 250
mil
lio
n E
UR
Total 0.4 billion EUR
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Presentation Outline
1. Water mediated impacts of climate change
2. Adaptation response options
3. International climate policy and adaptation
4. Selected activities by EU development institutions and KFW
5. Outlook
![Page 35: Addressing Water Impacts of Climate Change EC-EIB Water and Sanitation Seminar Brussels – 7 July 2010 Jochen Harnisch, Coordinator Climate Change Policy.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062318/55153526550346a87d8b5a74/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Outlook
● Climate change and adaptation are taking place already – majority of costs incurred by private sector
● Substantial new and additional funding for adaptation needed to avoid risks to growth and ODA diversion in developing countries
● European development institutions are global players in adaptation financing and cooperate closely to implement adaptation in partner countries
● Adaptation and development are integrated challenges
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Further Information
Dr. Jochen Harnisch Coordinator Climate Change Policy Vice President Environment & Climate
KfW Development BankPalmengartenstr. 5-9 D-60325 Frankfurt
phone: +49 69 7431-9695e-Mail: [email protected]