106 SEMA NewsSeptember 2018

BUSINESSSEMA

ADAS SystemsParking-Assistance Technologies and the Aftermarket By Mike Imlay

SEMA research indicates that the U.S. aftermarket for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and connected vehicle tech-nologies (CVT), though still in its infancy, can be expected to grow into a $1.5 billion industry within the next five years. With so much at stake in these rapidly emerging technolo-

gies, SEMA has made identifying ADAS/CVT opportunities for associa-tion members a key priority.

In this sixth installment of an eight-part SEMA News series highlighting key “SEMA Advanced Vehicle Technol-ogy Report” findings, we take a look at parking-assistance technologies and the aftermarket trends surrounding them. An interview with SEMA Vice Presi-dent of Technology John Waraniak fur-ther explaining these technologies and their implications for the aftermarket can be found on p. 100. Readers are also encouraged to download the full report at www.sema.org/avt-opportunities.

Parking-assistance systems (PAS) help drivers to park their vehicles in high traf-

fic, close quarters or otherwise difficult situations. Like other ADAS technologies, these systems range in functionality from providing a better view of parking spots to completely taking control of vehicles and self-piloting them into parking spaces. (See illustration: “Active Parking Assis-tance.”) From lowest to highest complex-ity they include:

• Passive PAS: The simplest systems, these alert a driver to a vehicle’s prox-imity to other objects while park-ing. They may include a rear or 360-degree camera as well as elec-

tromagnetic or ultrasonic sensors. Radar-based systems can also alert the driver to changing distances of objects within their range. Rear cross-traffic alert is sometimes an added feature that also uses radar to alert drivers to unseen vehicles or objects moving into their paths as they back up. (See illustration: “Rear Cross- Traffic Alert.”)

• Automated PAS: These systems engage a vehicle’s steering to help a driver park, but they still require driver monitoring. They integrate camera and radar sensors with the steering controls but, in most cases, require the driver to apply all neces-sary braking and acceleration.

• Autonomous Valet (Self-Parking Vehicle): These systems take com-plete control of a vehicle’s steering, acceleration and braking to move the

n Of all the emerging ADAS technologies, parking-assistance systems are proving the most popular among consumers. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administra-tion estimates that equipping every vehicle with a rear camera alone can cut backup accidents by 46%—and the aftermarket can help make that a reality.

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www.semanews.com 107

n Utilizing radar, rear cross-traffic alert warns a driver if there’s a moving vehicle or object entering the backup zone.

Rear Cross-Traffic Alert

Source: Mazda and Kia vehicle materials.

Aftermarket Product Adoption Likelihood

n Thanks to their simplicity and lower cost, passive PAS products are ideally suited to the aftermarket. There is presently a wide range of suppliers competing in that space.

Current Aftermarket Presence

Syst

em C

ompl

exity

/Pric

e

High

Low

HighLow

Automated Parking Assist

Ducker Research Focus

AutonomousValet

Park Assist

(Passive)

Active Parking Assistance

Automatic

n Automated PAS exhibits a higher degree of vehicle integration than passive systems, helping to steer a car into parking spaces. Autonomous valet takes things even further, essentially autopiloting the vehicle. Expensive and complex, such systems will almost certainly remain in OEM hands for the foreseeable future.

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108 SEMA NewsSeptember 2018

n With each passing year, OEMs have accelerated adoption rates for both passive PAS and rear cross-traffic alert to the point where consumers now virtually expect those technolo-gies on their new-vehicle purchases. By contrast, active PAS still has a slow adoption rate.

n SEMA research suggests that aftermarket passive PAS sales will steadily increase through 2021, possibly reaching 5,797,365 units.

SEMA n BUSINESS

car from a traffic lane into a parking slot. Typically, the driver is prompted to a certain location shown on the car’s navigation screen to properly position the vehicle to begin the park-ing process.

PAS technologies are becoming fairly standard on a wide range of OEM vehicle types and segments, due largely to a continued decrease in camera and radar prices. Rear cross-traffic alerts are show-ing a similar adoption trend, since they

Potential Aftermarket Passive Parking- Assistance Systems Sales

(annual units sold)

Base Case

High Growth

SEMA Advanced Vehicle Technology

Opportunity Report - 2017

© SEMA | Ducker Worldwide | Center for Automotive Research

PARKING-ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS: OEM MARKET ADOPTION

Parking-assistance systems are increasingly common at the OEM level, as end users begin to expect lower trim levels to have these systems.

57

• Parking Assistance (passive) systems are fairly common on a wide range of vehicle types and segments; this is largely due to the

continued decline in the price of camera and radar-based systems.

– Rear cross-traffic alerts have a similar adoption trend as passive parking-assistance systems require similar components with greater

range/functionality.

• NHTSA estimates that 25% of all parking-lot accidents are caused by vehicles backing up into another vehicle, and estimates that

a 46% reduction in accidents while backing up can be expected if all vehicles are equipped with a simple backup camera.

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

System Adoption Rate by Vehicle Year

Park Assist (passive) Park Assist (active) Rear Cross-Traffic Alert

47.3

1.2

18.1

Total Vehicle Parc

Total Systems in Vehicle Population(millions of vehicles)

Park Assist (passive) Park Assist (active)

Rear Cross-Traffic Alert

Source: NHTSA, AAA, Ducker Analysis

System Adoption Rate by Vehicle Year

Source: NHTSA, AAA, Ducker Analysis

Park Assist (passive) Park Assist (active) Rear Cross-Traffic Alert

Confidential © Ducker Worldwide

SEMA Advanced Vehicle Technology Opportunity Study - 2017

SEMA Advanced Vehicle Technology Opportunity Report - 2017

© SEMA | Ducker Worldwide | Center for Automotive Research

PARKING-ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS: AFTERMARKET PENETRATION

Passive parking-assistance systems (cameras and radars) have the highest aftermarket adoption rate of all ADAS systems.

• Passive parking-assistance systems in the aftermarket will be capped in the next two to three years as high OEM adoption in 2017(approximately 75%) will continue to increase, therefore limiting the potential car population for retrofit applications.

– Other ADAS systems have had more sudden adoption at the OEM level, whereas passive parking-assistance systems’ gradual growth inthe past 10 years limits the amount of applicable vehicles in the VIO for potential upfit.

• Despite OEM adoption limiting growth, the market demand will likely remain over four million units for the next 10 years.

60

5,119,667 4,501,688

5,797,365

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Potential Aftermarket Passive Parking-Assistance Systems Sales

(annual units sold)

$980

$675

$1,110

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Potential Aftermarket Passive Parking-Assistance Systems Sales

(millions of USD)

Source: Market Feedback, Ducker Analysis

Base Case

High Growth

Source: Market Feedback, Ducker Analysis

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www.semanews.com 109

share many of same components. Safety data also reveals another major reason OEMs are rapidly deploying PAS on new vehicles: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that driv-ers backing into other vehicles cause 25% of all parking-lot accidents. The agency further estimates that equipping every vehicle with a simple rear camera could reduce backup accidents by 46%. Conse-quently, there’s little wonder that we’ve seen a dramatic increase in OEM roll-outs of passive PAS and rear cross-traffic alert systems since the ’10 model year. By comparison, the adoption rates for more complicated and expensive active PAS technologies have barely climbed. (See chart: “System Adoption Rates by Vehicle Year.”)

Aftermarket Drivers and Barriers

All in all, consumers readily see the

advantages of PAS to help avoid accidents while backing out of parking spaces or attempting parallel and angled parking maneuvers. It seems that drivers distrust their rearview mirrors, especially when parking in adverse conditions or exit-ing spaces blinded by flanking vehicles. On the other hand, hesitancy to hand over vehicle control to sensors and com-puterized gizmos remains a barrier to greater adoption of the more advanced systems.

For the aftermarket, several factors can fuel growth in the PAS marketplace. First, backup cameras are already an established aftermarket product widely available for both professional and DIY installation. Second, with consumers now used to these conveniences on their newer cars, they will likely upgrade older vehicles as well. Consumers in large cities, where parking is especially tight, have even more incentive to seek PAS solutions.

There are, of course, some barriers to

adoption that both OEMs and the after-market must overcome. While finding these systems desirable, many consumers still do not consider them a necessity, and some lack confidence in their safety and convenience altogether. Moreover, the process of correctly positioning a vehicle in order for the autopilot to take over with the most advanced systems can prove frustrating for some consumers.

Aftermarket Presence

With their higher price points and installation issues, active PAS products enjoy no aftermarket presence at the moment. By contrast, passive aftermar-ket PAS products are fairly common and comprise a segment boasting many market participants. (See chart: “After-market Product Adoption Likelihood.”) If anything, current price levels perceived as slightly too high have discouraged

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110 SEMA NewsSeptember 2018

SEMA n BUSINESSeven more rapid penetration. That said, the emergence of 360-degree vision sys-tems and other passive products tailored to niche markets (such as tow vehicles) could drive higher-margin opportunities. For example, off-road enthusiasts will especially appreciate the ability to switch between multiple camera views of vehicle clearance and the planting of each indi-vidual tire. Considering all these trends, SEMA research forecasts growth of pas-sive PAS to possibly reach 5,797,365 units

annually by 2021. (See chart: “Potential Aftermarket Passive Parking-Assistance Systems Sales.”)

Supplier Landscape

The supplier landscape for passive PAS is highly fragmented. In fact, passive PAS products currently form the most preva-lent ADAS aftermarket niche due to their widely accessible technology and ease of opportunity. Backup camera systems in

particular have been available in the after-market for more than five years. Their list of suppliers includes a multitude of players of varying backgrounds, including manufacturers of other ADAS equipment, GPS and navigational products as well as other vehicle electronics, camera and infotainment systems.

These suppliers are vying for market share at varying price points and find-ing new and innovative ways to install and utilize rearview cameras. Examples include displays on mobile phones and devices, auxiliary view screens and dash-board integration. Market leaders in this niche are primarily early-entrant spe-cialty-product manufacturers and info-tainment suppliers. The secondary level is composed mainly of various other info-tainment, navigation and vehicle electron-ics manufacturers. Right now the market leaders account for just under 20% of the supplier landscape and take about 30% of the niche’s revenue share. In other words, companies identified as second-ary participants have found ample space to compete.

With passive PAS systems so prevalent in the aftermarket and demand only growing, there is little to deter new mar-ket participants, especially on the retail and installer end. The systems make an ideal entry point to ADAS technologies—an emerging market that is now beginning to explode. These technologies will affect every level of the aftermarket in very short order, so now is the time to embrace the ADAS evolution.

The tremendous potential ahead for the specialty-equipment industry is detailed in the “SEMA Advanced Vehicle Technology Opportunities Report.” To download your copy, go to www.sema.org/avt-opportunities.

For additional information about ADAS technologies and how they may impact your business, visit the SEMA Garage Vehicle Technology webpage at www.semagarage.com/services/vehicletechnology.

Stay Informed!

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