Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability Nigel Arnell and Matt Charlton...
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Transcript of Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability Nigel Arnell and Matt Charlton...
Adapting to the effects of climate change
on water supply reliabilityNigel Arnell and Matt CharltonWalker Institute for Climate System Research,
University of Reading
School of Geography, University of Southampton
Living with climate change: Are there limits to adaptation? London, February 7-8 2008
Research questions
Are there limits to our ability to adapt to climate change in a particular place?
…and what controls those limits and barriers?
Water supply reliability in southern England
Outline
• Water resources in southern England
• A conceptual framework
• The case study
• Potential adaptation options
• Barriers to implementation
Water resources in southern England
Surplus or deficit in 2009-10?
Environment Agency (2001)
Increasing demands
…and add climate change
Change in summer runoff, UKCIP02 medium-high scenario, 2020s
No newresources
Somecompany-proposedschemes
some demand management
much demand management-30-20-10
0102030405060S
uppl
y -
dem
and
(Ml/d
)
Medium population growth
Adaptation options
Eastern South East England
Supply-side options
Demand-side options
A conceptual framework
Generic barriers apply to the adaptation challenge
- is the need for adaptation recognised?
- can the need for adaptation be defined?
- can potential adaptation options be identified?
- can adaptation options be evaluated?
- can an option be selected?
Specific barriers apply to individual options
- are there physical limitations on the performance of the option?
- are there financial constraints on the adoption of the option?
- are there socio-political constraints on its adoption?
- are there institutional factors within the organisation or its regulatory / market context that constrain the adoption of the option?
The case study catchment
River Medway catchment, Kent
Multiple “ownership”
Complicated resource management
Multiple stakeholders
Water supply companiesEnvironment AgencyLocal councilsSEERACPREWildlife TrustAgricultureWater consumers
Change in the catchment
Medway at Teston: change by 2020s
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
J F M A M J J A S O N D
% c
han
ge
fro
m 1
961-
1990
Change by the 2020s
Potential adaptation options
Supply side Demand side
Bulk transfers Reduce leakage
Effluent re-use Metering and tariffs
Aquifer storage and recovery Water efficiency
Desalination Licence trading
Local resources - enlarge Bewl Bridge - new Broad Oak / Clay Hill - winter flood storages - new sources
Public education
Reduce rate of growth
Increased connectivity
No one option is likely to meet targets
Barriers to implementation
Generic barriersIs the need recognised? Yes…
Can the need be specified? Strategically - yes…
Can potential options be identified? Yes…
Can options be evaluated? Not sure yet…
Can an option be selected? Not sure yet…
Specific barriers to individual options
Supply side Physical Financial Socio-political
Institutional
Bulk transfers
Effluent re-use
Aquifer storage and recovery
Desalination
Local resources - enlarge Bewl Bridge - new Broad Oak / Clay Hill - winter flood storages - new sources
Increased connectivity
Preliminary assessment
Strong Medium Weak ?
Specific barriers to individual options
Demand side Physical Financial Socio-political
Institutional
Reduce leakage
Metering and tariffs
Water efficiency
Licence trading
Public education
Reduce rate of growth
Preliminary assessment
Strong Medium Weak ?
Specific barriers
• Major physical barriers for most supply-side options (environmental constraints, reliable yield etc)
• Physical barriers for demand-side options relate to uncertainty over effectiveness
• Significant pressure-group objections to many supply-side options
• Significant customer barriers to many demand-side options
What next?
• Explore characteristics of different adaptation options with stakeholders
• How can portfolios of adaptation options be implemented?– Multiple ownership of the challenge of coping
with water resources deficits
Thank you
www.walker-institute.ac.uk