Adapting to Climate Change in Southern CaliforniaAdapting to Climate Change in Southern California...
Transcript of Adapting to Climate Change in Southern CaliforniaAdapting to Climate Change in Southern California...
Adapting to Climate Change inSouthern California
Northrop Grumman Presentation CenterRedondo Beach, California
May 2, 2011
Dan MazmanianDirector, Task Force on California’s
Adaptation to Climate Change
Preparing for the Effectsof Climate Change: A
Strategy for California
A REPORT BY THE CALIFORNIA ADAPTATIONADVISORY PANEL
at: www.pacificcouncil.org/climatechange/report
Co-‐Chairs:William K. Reilly, Mason Willrich, Patrick Lavin
Members:Rafael Jose Aguilera Audrey Chang Cynthia L. CoryBryant Danner Ron Gastelum T.J. GlauthierLee K. Harrington Robert M. Hertzberg Winston H. HickoxLoren F. Kaye Kaylynn L. Kim Jane C.S. LongSunne McPeak Michael J. Rubio Rebecca ShawDan Sperling Jim Wunderman Diane WiMenberg
John E. Bryson, co-‐chair PCIP
Members
•Science-‐based policy (decisions must be grounded in the best availableclimate science)
•Cost-‐effecTve acTons (make Mmely and “no-‐regrets” long-‐terminvestment choices)
•Aligned incenTves (for individuals, businesses, and communiMes withemphasis on resiliency)
•Public engagement (require meaningful public engagement at alllevels)
•CoordinaTon of planning and decision making (lead agents need to beidenMfied at all levels to reconcile compeMng interests)
Guiding Principles
Sea Level Rise/Flood Forest Fires
• 1-‐2+ meter sea riseby 2100
• InundaTon• Coastal erosion
•Loss of communiTes, recreaTon, fresh water sources, wet land habitats
• Forest infestaTon• Extreme fires
• More frequent and intense fires• More exposure at the urban-‐wild land interface
Water Supply
• Reduced snowpack• PrecipitaTon variability• More rapid evaporaTon
• Reduced storage capacity• Increased demand• More frequent flooding
Three Climate change effects facing California
Threat
Impacts
SEA LEVEL RISE:Population at Risk
• 480,000 people
• 300,000 workers
• Large numbers oflow-‐incomepeople andcommuniTes ofcolor
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Source: Scripps 2006
100%Remaining
Historical Average(1961-1990)
40%Remaining
20%Remaining
Lower Emissions Scenario(2070-2099)
Higher Emissions Scenario(2070- 2099)
Sierra Snowpack: Impact of Climate Change
WATER: The Snowpack in the High Sierra’s on which Californiarelies for 40% of its water storage capacity, will be reduced by upto 80%
Source of fire slides: Anthony Westerling, 2009
FOREST AND RANGE LAND FIRE: HoMer, drier summers couldresult in longer more intense wild fire seasons while largerpopulaTons will leave more people potenTally vulnerable.
Resistance
Resilience
Retreat
Sea Level Rise Heat/Fire
• Sea walls
• Risk insurance,floaTngfoundaTon;•land usemanagement
• Move tohigher ground
• Improved firefighTngcapabiliTes
•Fire proof buildingstandards;forestry pracTces,thinning
• Move out ofred zone
Focus/ Content
Structure of Analysis
Sub-‐groups considered a range of acTons that could be takento address the hazard
Water Supply
• New sources;desalinaTon
• New irrigaTonsystems, graywater, demandmanagement,conservaTon
• NA
AnalyTcal framework and case studies
Coastal & BayArea
Sierra foothillscommunity
North, South &Central Valley
•Increase monitoring and data gathering on the uses of and changes to theState’s natural resources and land use paMerns in areas with a high probabilityof being affected by climate change
•Improve mulT level and cross sector communicaTon and coordinaTon foradaptaTon planning
•Align incenTves for proacTve adapTve management and build funds to supportlarge scale community based projects
•Establish a Climate Risk Council (CRC) for California
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Major recommendaTons
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Role of the Climate Risk Council (CRC)
Compile, organize and assess scienTfic informaTon on acceleraTng climatechange effects at the state and regional levels
Develop, periodically review and update risk-‐assessment protocols andguidelines:• F
or conducTng risk assessments at regional and local levels applicable in stateinfrastructure planning, regional and local planning• For risk characterizaTon processes to be used by regional and local planners inadaptaTon planning• For cost-‐effecTveness evaluaTon of adaptaTon opTons on all long term projects
Conduct a public review process under AdministraTve Procedures Act indevelopment of the protocols and guidelines
Advise public enMMes responsible for carrying out long-‐term projects on how toincorporate risk assessment, risk characterizaTon, and opTons assessments withintheir planning procedures and pracTces
Climate Council Responsibili;es
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0
1
Measuresbelow 0 reducecosts
Cost per unit of benefit raTo
AcMons below the raMon line on they axis are defined as cost effecMve
Loss averteddollars
ReducMon of the expected loss byimplemenMng the measure
AdaptaTon cost effecTveness analysis
Benefits include loss averted andaddiMonal revenue (if applicable
The CRC will:• Develop general protocols for comparaTve cost-‐curve analyses for adaptaTonopTons;• Provide guidelines for the planning and decision making bodies assessing thecost of different acTon applicable for their planning scale;• Periodically review the protocols used by planning enTTes throughout thestate and provide technical training for those responsible for long-‐termplanning and infrastructure investments decision making throughout the state.
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AddiTonal specific threat recommendaTons
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Additional specific threat recommendations
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AddiTonal specific threat recommendaTons
Photo by David Revell – January 2010
Photo by David Revell – 2/23/08
Source: California Coastal Records Project
Managed Retreat – Ford Ord
2002
2005
• getting out of the way gracefully• Various mechanisms• Abandonment• Phasing, relocate critical infrastructure,
remove expendable structures asneeded,
• realign transportation corridors,adaptively manage,
• purchase
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Addendum: Topics Covered in the “CA Climate ChangeAdaptaTon Strategy”, Dec. 2009
Topics covered in terms of impacts and risk and recommended stateacTon strategies:
•Public Health•Ocean and costal resources•Water management•Biodiversity•Agriculture•Forestry•TransportaTon and energy infrastructure
Total number of recommendaTons:N = 49
See: hMp://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptaTon/