Adapting to Climate Change inSouthern California

Northrop Grumman Presentation CenterRedondo Beach, California

May 2, 2011

Dan MazmanianDirector, Task Force on California’s

Adaptation to Climate Change

Preparing for the Effectsof Climate Change: A

Strategy for California

A  REPORT  BY  THE  CALIFORNIA  ADAPTATIONADVISORY  PANEL

at:  www.pacificcouncil.org/climatechange/report

Co-­‐Chairs:William  K.  Reilly,    Mason  Willrich,  Patrick  Lavin

Members:Rafael  Jose  Aguilera          Audrey  Chang     Cynthia  L.  CoryBryant  Danner                             Ron  Gastelum     T.J.  GlauthierLee  K.  Harrington                 Robert  M.  Hertzberg    Winston  H.  HickoxLoren  F.  Kaye                             Kaylynn  L.  Kim    Jane  C.S.  LongSunne  McPeak                           Michael  J.  Rubio     Rebecca  ShawDan  Sperling                               Jim  Wunderman     Diane  WiMenberg

John  E.  Bryson,  co-­‐chair  PCIP

Members

•Science-­‐based  policy  (decisions  must  be  grounded  in  the  best  availableclimate  science)

•Cost-­‐effecTve  acTons  (make  Mmely  and  “no-­‐regrets”  long-­‐terminvestment  choices)

•Aligned  incenTves  (for  individuals,  businesses,  and  communiMes  withemphasis  on  resiliency)

•Public  engagement  (require  meaningful  public  engagement  at  alllevels)

•CoordinaTon  of  planning  and  decision  making  (lead  agents  need  to  beidenMfied  at  all  levels  to  reconcile  compeMng  interests)

Guiding  Principles

Sea  Level  Rise/Flood Forest  Fires

• 1-­‐2+  meter  sea  riseby  2100

• InundaTon• Coastal  erosion

•Loss  of  communiTes,              recreaTon,  fresh              water  sources,  wet              land  habitats

•  Forest  infestaTon•  Extreme  fires

•  More  frequent  and        intense  fires•  More  exposure  at  the      urban-­‐wild  land      interface

Water  Supply

• Reduced  snowpack• PrecipitaTon              variability• More  rapid                evaporaTon

•  Reduced  storage        capacity•  Increased  demand•  More  frequent        flooding

Three  Climate  change  effects  facing  California

Threat

Impacts

SEA  LEVEL  RISE:Population  at  Risk

• 480,000  people

• 300,000  workers

• Large  numbers  oflow-­‐incomepeople  andcommuniTes  ofcolor

7

Source: Scripps 2006

100%Remaining

Historical Average(1961-1990)

40%Remaining

20%Remaining

Lower Emissions Scenario(2070-2099)

Higher Emissions Scenario(2070- 2099)

Sierra Snowpack: Impact of Climate Change

WATER:  The  Snowpack  in  the  High  Sierra’s  on  which  Californiarelies  for  40%  of  its  water  storage  capacity,  will  be  reduced  by  upto  80%

Source of fire slides: Anthony Westerling, 2009

FOREST  AND  RANGE  LAND  FIRE:  HoMer,  drier  summers  couldresult  in  longer  more  intense  wild  fire  seasons  while  largerpopulaTons  will  leave  more  people  potenTally  vulnerable.

Resistance

Resilience

Retreat

   Sea  Level  Rise    Heat/Fire

•  Sea  walls

•  Risk  insurance,floaTngfoundaTon;•land  usemanagement

•  Move  tohigher  ground

•  Improved  firefighTngcapabiliTes

•Fire  proof  buildingstandards;forestry  pracTces,thinning

•  Move  out  ofred  zone

Focus/  Content

Structure  of  Analysis

Sub-­‐groups  considered  a  range  of  acTons  that  could  be  takento  address  the  hazard

Water  Supply

•  New  sources;desalinaTon

•  New  irrigaTonsystems,  graywater,  demandmanagement,conservaTon

•  NA

AnalyTcal  framework  and  case  studies

Coastal  &  BayArea

Sierra  foothillscommunity

North,  South  &Central  Valley

•Increase  monitoring  and  data  gathering  on  the  uses  of  and  changes  to  theState’s  natural  resources  and  land  use  paMerns  in  areas  with  a  high  probabilityof  being  affected  by  climate  change

•Improve  mulT  level  and  cross  sector  communicaTon  and  coordinaTon  foradaptaTon  planning

•Align  incenTves  for  proacTve  adapTve  management  and  build  funds  to  supportlarge  scale  community  based  projects

•Establish  a  Climate  Risk  Council  (CRC)  for  California

10

Major  recommendaTons

11

                  Role  of  the  Climate  Risk  Council  (CRC)

Compile,  organize  and  assess  scienTfic  informaTon  on  acceleraTng  climatechange  effects  at  the  state  and  regional  levels

Develop,  periodically  review  and  update  risk-­‐assessment  protocols  andguidelines:• F

or  conducTng  risk  assessments  at  regional  and  local  levels  applicable  in  stateinfrastructure  planning,  regional  and  local  planning• For  risk  characterizaTon  processes  to  be  used  by  regional  and  local    planners  inadaptaTon  planning• For  cost-­‐effecTveness  evaluaTon  of  adaptaTon  opTons  on  all  long  term  projects

Conduct  a  public  review  process  under  AdministraTve  Procedures  Act  indevelopment  of  the  protocols  and  guidelines

Advise  public  enMMes  responsible  for  carrying  out  long-­‐term  projects  on  how  toincorporate  risk  assessment,  risk  characterizaTon,  and  opTons  assessments  withintheir  planning  procedures  and  pracTces

Climate  Council  Responsibili;es

12

0

1

Measuresbelow  0  reducecosts

Cost  per  unit  of  benefit  raTo

AcMons  below  the  raMon  line  on  they  axis  are  defined  as  cost  effecMve

Loss  averteddollars

ReducMon  of  the  expected  loss  byimplemenMng  the  measure

 AdaptaTon  cost  effecTveness  analysis

Benefits  include  loss  averted  andaddiMonal  revenue  (if  applicable

The  CRC  will:•  Develop  general  protocols  for  comparaTve  cost-­‐curve  analyses  for  adaptaTonopTons;•  Provide  guidelines  for  the  planning  and  decision  making  bodies  assessing  thecost  of  different  acTon  applicable  for  their  planning  scale;•  Periodically  review  the  protocols  used  by  planning  enTTes  throughout  thestate  and  provide  technical  training  for  those  responsible  for  long-­‐termplanning  and  infrastructure  investments  decision  making  throughout  the  state.

13

AddiTonal  specific  threat  recommendaTons

14

Additional specific threat recommendations

15

AddiTonal  specific  threat  recommendaTons

Photo by David Revell – January 2010

Photo by David Revell – 2/23/08

Source: California Coastal Records Project

Managed  Retreat  –  Ford  Ord

2002

2005

• getting out of the way gracefully• Various mechanisms• Abandonment• Phasing, relocate critical infrastructure,

remove expendable structures asneeded,

• realign transportation corridors,adaptively manage,

• purchase

19

Addendum:  Topics  Covered  in  the  “CA  Climate  ChangeAdaptaTon  Strategy”,  Dec.  2009

Topics  covered  in  terms  of  impacts  and  risk  and  recommended  stateacTon  strategies:

•Public  Health•Ocean  and  costal  resources•Water  management•Biodiversity•Agriculture•Forestry•TransportaTon  and  energy  infrastructure

Total  number  of  recommendaTons:N  =  49

See:  hMp://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptaTon/