Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction to a New ...Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction...

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Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction to a New Initiative in British Columbia Stewart J. Cohen Environment Canada and University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia January 27, 2010

Transcript of Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction to a New ...Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction...

Adapting to Climate Change: an Introduction

to a New Initiative in British Columbia

Stewart J. Cohen

Environment Canada and University of British Columbia,

Vancouver, British Columbia

January 27, 2010

Outline

• Why is climate change an urgent challenge for

regional planning?

• Regional Adaptation Collaborative—RAC

Carbon Dioxide Trends

Source: US NOAA, 2008

Source: US NSIDC (2007) and Cohen (1997)

Observed changes in

Arctic sea ice, 1979-

2008 and permafrost

thaw and landslide near

Tuktoyaltuk

September 1979

September 2007

The Mountain Pine Beetle—British Columbia(photo of 2009 Kelly Creek fire (Prince George region) from

http://bcwildfire.ca)

Mountain Pine Beetle (dentroctonus ponderosae Hopkins)

Outbreak (suitability maps from Carroll et al., 2004)

• worst outbreak in history (2008: 13.5 million ha)

– linked to climate change (warming

winters) & management practices (fire

suppression, age )

• current response:

– Rapid harvest long term

maladaptation?

• future projection? Implications for hydrology?

Additional info

from BCMOF,

and Walker &

Sydneysmith,

2007

Carbon Dioxide Trends (left) & Climate Trends (right)

Source: US NOAA, 2008; IPCC, 2007

10

BC Winters became less cold

Winters in the interior warmed by 2.5-3.5C

Winters on the coast warmed by 1.0-2.0C

11

Historic summer temperature trends vary by location in BC.

Summers in southern BC warmed by1.0-2.5oC

Summers on the coast cooled by up to 1.5C

Scenario A1B scenario changes over North America.

Top row: Temperature change (oC) between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, averaged

over 21 models. Bottom row: same for change in precipitation (%) (IPCC 2007, WGII—CH. 15, slide from Linda Mortsch).

Annual Mean Temperature (present

to 2050s)

• Based on a moderate

scenario of future climate

change

produced by PCIC for Walker & Sydneysmith (2007)

Precipitation trends & scenarios in BC

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2A01A - Canoe River - Apr 1st SWE

910 m, 1941-2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1C01 - Brookmere - April 1st Snow Water Equivalent(Elevation = 980 metres)

1945 - 2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Sno

w W

ater

Equ

ival

ent (

mm

)

1D08 - Stave Lake - April 1st Snow Water Equivalent

(Elevation = 1210 metres)

1968 - 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Sno

w W

ater

Equ

ival

ent

(mm

)

1C08 - Nazko - Apr 1st Snow Water Equivalent

1070 m, 1957-2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

-44% since 1945

- 73% since 1957 - 53% since 1951

-19% since 1968

Nazko (Fraser Plateau)

Brookmere (Nicola) Stave Lake (lower Fraser)

Canoe River (Upper Fraser)

Spring Snowpack Declined Across

B.C.,1940s/50s – 2006(slide from Jenny Fraser)

Projected

Spring

Snowpack

Decline

(present to

2050s)

CC Impacts—Changes in Statistics

• Small changes in mean or extremes can yield large changes in risk

• Damages (fire, wind, flood) likely to increase exponentially

• Infrastructure sensitive to

– Rate of climate change

– Changes in mean climate (weathering)

– Changes in extremes (thresholds/failure)

– Adaptive capacity (ability to plan, respond, design, maintain)

• Balance between safety, reliability and cost of design

• Changes in health/disease risk?

– Heat waves

– Flooding/sewer overflow/boil orders

– Vectors/West Nile, etc.(source: Karl et al., 2008)

6 key messages – BC Chapter (Walker &

Sydneysmith) of National Assessment (2007)

1. Costs of CC impacts & extreme events are increasing and will continue

2. Summer water shortages increasingly frequent & severe

3. BC’s critical infrastructure faces immediate threats & long-term costs

4. BC’s natural resource sectors & dependent communities are vulnerable to increasing risks

5. Vulnerabilities & adaptive capacity vary widely across BC’s regions & economic sectors

6. Integrating CC adaptation into decision-making is an opportunity to long-term impacts & costs

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/2007

Outline

• Why is climate change an urgent challenge for

regional planning?

• Regional Adaptation Collaborative—RAC

Building the science-policy bridge…

• Dialogue with researchers

and local

experts/practitioners as

part of climate change

adaptation assessment

• This is 2-way knowledge

exchange, not a 1-way

outreach process

• Experts become

extension agents for local

adaptation (and enable

mitigation…)

Okanagan climate change study team visit

to Penticton Dam, June 2002 (Cohen et

al., 2004; Cohen and Neale, 2006)

Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC)

• Facilitate collaboration to enable planning for adapting

to climate change

– Shared learning: researchers, local practitioners/planners and

decision makers

• Funding from Natural Resources Canada

– RAC programs throughout the country

– Funding for 2-year projects, 2010-2012

• BC program organized by BC MOE; coordinated by

Fraser Basin Council

– Focus on water resources, forestry, community planning

RAC-BC Projects

• Water allocation and use

– Okanagan water supply and demand, Okanagan irrigation,

Vancouver Island water management planning

• Forest and land management

– Protecting fisheries, forest management planning

• Floodplain management

– Floodplain management tools, floodplain planning in Delta

• Community adaptation

– 6 case studies

Conclusion

• Climate change is creating challenges (and maybe

opportunities) for forestry in British Columbia

• The RAC program offers support for shared learning

between researchers and local practitioners and

decision makers

• This is complementary to other British Columbia

initiatives in adaptation

– BCMOF--Future Forest Ecosystem Science Council (FFESC)

projects

– Columbia Basin Trust: Communities Adapting to Climate

Change (www.cbt.org)

for further information…

• Environment Canada climate change website:

http://www.ec.gc.ca/climatechange

• Natural Resources Canada—RAC website:

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/collab/

• BC Future Forest Ecosystem Science Council:

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/future_forests/council

• Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC):

http://www.pacificclimate.org

HARRY NELSONU N I V E R S I T Y O F B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A

W I L L I A M S L A K E , B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A

C I T Y H A L L , C O M M I T T E E R O O M N O . 1

2 7 J A N U A R Y , 2 0 1 0

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Regional Adaptation CollaborativeSan Jose Watershed

Overview

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Introduction-why are we here? Project team Why we’re looking at the San Jose watershed Project details Expected outcomes How can we work

together?

Introduction

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

This process started back in May of 2008

Involved a competitive process with successful ones combined into one proposal

Original emphasis was on water issues-we saw an opportunity to bring forests From the January 25, 2010 press release

The forest and watershed management initiative will develop tools and improve existing regulations to help developers and resource managers maintain aquatic values of fisheries sensitive watersheds and streams in forested and urban watersheds affected by climate change.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/media/newcom/2010/201004a-eng.php

Project team

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson UBC, Forest Resources Management

Ken Day UBC, Alex Fraser Research Forest

Stewart Cohen UBC, Environment Canada

Anne-Hélène Mathey UBC, Forest Resources Management

Craig Nitschke UBC, University of Melbourne

Dan Moore UBC, FRM/Geography

Adam Wei UBC, Okanagan

John Innes UBC, Forest Resources Management

Phil Grace Graduate Student, UBC

The San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

The San Jose Watershed

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Water supply is a key concern

City of Williams Lake aquifer

Challenges identified in previous studies

(Case and Holmes)

Flow levels (low summer, high winter)

Water temperature variations

Fish species concerns

Mountain Pine Beetle impact

Biological interventions

Management interventions

Lack of disturbances

Issues that could aggravate CC impacts (1)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010

Three interacting phenomena are taking place that

may have cumulative impacts on the water supply: First, mountain pine bark beetle has killed a significant component

of the trees over fairly large areas in the upper reaches of the San

Jose Watershed. Reduction in interception and transpiration losses,

coupled with salvage impacts on water retention and run-off, will

have potentially positive impacts on surface run-off and recruitment

to ground water.

Issues that could aggravate CC impacts (2)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010

Second, Dry Douglas-fir forests that cover the lower reaches of the

watershed have had little disturbance over the past 40 years, and the

canopy of those forests is closed, leading to over-dense forests,

increased interception of precipitation, and increasing forest health

problems. These influences may cause negative pressure on surface

run-off and recruitment to ground water.

Third, climate change is expected to impact forest dynamics and

water flow.

Project Goals

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Concern as to how climate change might impact flow of

services and values we expect from local forest resources

Through a collaborative process quantitatively assess these

impacts and the effect of different forest management

activities on the watershed

Use this to enable planning within a long-term sustainability

strategy

End up with an idea of how future forest management

strategies could address water concerns

Project Approach

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

We want to emphasize that this is a shared learning process

We can bring tools and scientific expertise

However, to be effective this has to be combined with local knowledge, experience, and expertise

The goal is to develop new inputs that assist local planners and other resource managers and decision-makers

Project Details

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Over the course of two years, we plan to come up with a model of the San Jose watershed and key relationships

We will need to identify key objectives, to make assumptions, understand what impacts have been observed, recognize operational issues all with the help of local actors

Several models will be used TACA Stand-level forest modelling MIKE SHE Groundwater hydrological modelling YAM Surface water hydrological modelling DYNA-PLAN Landscape-level forest modelling

Modelling Framework

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Landscape dynamics

Stand dynamics

Satisfying outcomes?

Ending Landscape (Forest Inventory)

Growth and Yield

Regeneration

Climate Scenarios

1. Disturbances

Policy Scenarios

•Water Management

•Adaptation

•Sustainability

START: Initial Landscape (Forest Inventory)

2. Forest Growth

Human processesNatural Processes

Management & Harvesting

MPB

END

Hydrology models1. Surface water model2. Groundwater model

Mortality

TACA- (Nitschke)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Identify tree species sensitivity and vulnerability to changes in climate

Determines probability of tree species establishment in :

• Past climate scenarios

• Present climate scenarios

• Future climate scenarios

Model is currently being used in the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II (K2)

MIKE SHE – (Wei)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Integrated water model

Forecasts future groundwater availability under different management and climate scenarios

Model currently being used to assess water

availability in the Okanagan basin (Okanagan Basin

Water Board and Ministry of Environment)

YAM – (Moore)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Surface hydrology model

Landscape-level model that predicts water levels and water flow

Based on land cover type (including forest age and species) and climactic variables along with stream flow data

Initial model testing using field work in Cotton Creek, Cranbrook, with additional testing to take place in Fish Trap Creek

DYNA-PLAN – (Mathey)

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Scenario-based landscape level modelling

Generate spatially explicit future forest conditionso Outputs include timber supply and economic variables

Used in Ontario to examine economic cost of maintaining even flow arrangements

Used to identify suitable strategies to cope with mountain pine beetle attacks in Alberta

Being used in the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II (K2)

Modelling Framework

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Landscape dynamics

Satisfying outcomes?

Ending Landscape (Forest Inventory)

Growth and Yield

Regeneration

Climate Scenarios

1. Disturbances

Policy Scenarios

•Water Management

•Adaptation

•Sustainability

START: Initial Landscape (Forest Inventory)

2. Forest Growth

Human processesNatural Processes

Management & Harvesting

MPB

END

Hydrology models1. Surface water model

2. Groundwater model

TACA

DYNA-PLAN

YAM

MIKE SHE

Stand dynamics

Mortality

Expected Outcomes

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Not come up with a plan, but an outline of a plan

Hand off to those with the responsibility to implement

Not a prescriptive output, but one that is relevant to decision making

Consistent with overall RACobjectives

Communication

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

This is a key challenge within the project

For it to be effective we need to ensure that we can communicate among ourselves

Researchers/theoretical models versus having to make decisions in the real world

Bringing together different groups that have typically not worked together (administrative boundaries, jurisdictional responsibilities)

Outreach

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Want to make sure results are applicable and useful

Want to look for ways in which the research can add

to local planning capacity:

o Inputs from research

o Factor into other

planning processes

o Other ways it might be useful

Moving Forward

Harry Nelson 27 January, 2010RAC San Jose Watershed

Forming an Advisory group

Influential local stakeholders &decision makers

Identifying key issues

Effectively engage

Helping formulate policy responses

Think about how knowledge generated can be used (existing processes and long-term)

Workshop in March 2010