Adapting to Climate Change

TACC Training Module 4

Adapting to Climate Change

1

Objectives of the Module

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Raise awareness of the importance of adaptation in preparing for and coping with climate change

Introduce key stages of effective adaptation planning

Highlight the importance of multi-level governance in adaptation actions

Introduce international support programmes and tools to support adaptation planning

Outline

1. Scope: the 3 guiding principles2. Vulnerability assessment3. Impact assessment4. Adaptation options 5. Ecosystem based and community

based adaptation6. Some examples7. Funds, guidance and support


What is Climate Change Adaptation?


“Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or humans systems in

response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects,

which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”

Parry et al ,2007 (IPCC)

First principle Since maintaining healthy and resilient ecosystems, achieving development priorities and improving the quality of life are as important as adaptation to climate change, it is the combination of promoting conservation and restoration of ecosystems, development choices, adaptation actions and capacities that will allow us to effectively address the climate change.


Second principleUnderstanding the linkages between the impacts of a changing climate and their implications at the local level is more complex than is captured in spatial, regional and global climate models. Participation of local partners is necessary to facilitate integration of climate impact information with local development knowledge to create pathways that promote resilience and adaptation to climate change.


Third principle

Understanding adaptation as part of ecosystem management and development requires balancing the focus of the biophysical risks associated with climate change with specific risks and opportunities in order to address issues such as ecosystem and human well-being, capacity and long-term development.


Steps towards adaptation options

Capacity & Institutional assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Impact assessmentprojections and models

Step1

Step 2

Step 3

Developing Adaptation options – investigating

Making the options relevant and useful to the capacity and institutional needs

Step 4

Step 5

Step 1: Stakeholders and needs

The assessment of vulnerability at the local and regional levels is strongly centered on the involvement and knowledge of a diversity of stakeholders

Key stakeholders may include community members, policy-makers, researchers, experts, civil society and non-governmental organizations

Stakeholders’ involvement also helps in empowering local communities and decision-makers as they can see themselves as valuable sources of knowledge for developing responses to climate change


Identify relevant stakeholders They are affected by climate change

and/or are living in areas of high vulnerability that could be exaggerated by progressing climate change.

They have the information, resources or expertise required for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment, policy formulation and strategy implementation.

They have control or an influence on key mechanisms for adaptation and strategy formulation, implementation and communication.


Step 2: Defining vulnerability – the present

People and communities are experiencing a number of threats such as climate change, environmental degradation and social and economic changes

Impacts of these challenges interact and cumulatively increase the vulnerability of local and regional areas and populations


Vulnerability to Climate Change Vulnerability could be described as the

degree to which human - environment systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

It could include for example: low-lying islands or coastal cities; impacts on agricultural lands, forced migration; or the mechanisms causing these impacts, e.g., disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet


Vulnerability assessment

The departure point is the question:“vulnerable to what?”

In the context of climate change, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, people’s sensitivity and their adaptive capacity


Exercise 1: Felakuti caseIn the appropriate boxes, please state:

1.The socio-economic and environmental pressures on the district of Felakuti

2. State the trends due to climate change

3. State the impacts due to climate change and the non climatic impatcs

4. What are the available capacities to cope with threats? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Climatic and non-climatic variables Example: Human health vulnerabilities Outcomes of Concerns: More frequent

geographically widespread epidemics of infectious and waterborne disease

Climatic Drivers: Climatic changes increase the area and number of disease vectors and more frequent heavy rainfall and drought events could disrupt water supply and sanitation

Non-climatic drivers: Severely degraded health care system; declining immunity, nutritional and health status of population; high poverty rates; poor programs for disease surveillance, vector control, and disease prevention

In: Leary and Kulkarni, 2007


Vulnerability in the context of climate change

Source: Allen consulting, 2005 (modified)

Potential impacts Adaptive capacity

VULNERABILITY

Adaptation responses

Exposure Sensitivity

Driver / Pressure State

ImpactResponse

Example

Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is described in terms of not only exposure to elevated temperatures, but also crop yield sensitivity to the elevated temperatures, impacts on crop, and the adaptive capacity of farmers to adapt to the effects of that sensitivity, e.g., by planting more heat-resistant cultivars or by ceasing to plant their current crop altogether.

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential impacts Adaptive capacity

Vulnerability

Allen consulting and Schroter et al., 2005,

Monitoring vulnerabilityVulnerability can be monitored by identifying indicators and indices, a few examples:State and trendsfrequency of natural events (eg. floods)Impacts and sensitivityPopulation affected by natural disastersInfrastructure, AssetsDiseases and health care deliveryIndicesHuman development index, environmental vulnerability index, coastal risk index, social vulnerability index


Step 3: Impact assessment – the futureThe guiding questions to investigate Impacts of

future climate change can be: What are the changes in climate variables

estimated by different climate model simulations?

What are the estimated impacts on the resources?

What are the potential consequences of estimated impacts relevant to designing future development activities, capacities and adaptation strategies?


Impacts of climate change and their assessment The climate change impact

assessments are based on scenarios of projections of future climate change and are presented as changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise etc.

Using available information and data, it is possible to analyze the recent changes and trends in climate parameters. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Impact assessment – what is used?

Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Circulation Models (RCM) are used with currently 50km resolution

The projections are uncertain as it is a highly complex, inter-dependent web, with possible tipping points that we are not understanding yet.

Scenarios – official IPCC are the SRES emissions scenarios used for projections

KEY question: what are the human and environmental consequences?


Step 4: Developing adaptation optionsObjective: mainstreaming adaptation options into urban planning

Key characteristics of Adaptation:

“an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007; Adger et al)

Type Example Involvement

Anticipatory Diversifying rainfall removal by promoting rainwater storing, permeable surfaces and

drainage pipelines

Community and personal

Reactive Expanding drainage infrastructure to accommodate heavy precipitation events

Community

Top-down Changing national standards, such as building codes, to address changes in

climate

National

Bottom-up Developing community regulation for building construction - increased habitable spaces, increased permeable surfaces to minimize pressure on sewage system and

flooding

Community and productions

systems

Autonomous

Farmers’ decisions to change timing and planted species based on weather changes

Individual and community

Planned Changes in water resources allocation to ensure biodiversity protection, agriculture

and drinking waters supply

Community, production

systems and individual

Types and examples of adaptations

Key characteristics of adaptation

It involves a range of measures directed at reducing vulnerability to a range of climatic stimuli (changes in means, variability, and extremes), but also taking into account other non-climatic vulnerabilities so actions on climate change won’t create or exaggerate these other vulnerabilities;

It shares common features with risk management; It is a collaborative process; Adaptation cannot avoid all impacts of climate change;

therefore, is no substitute for mitigation of climate change;

Adaptation options should be designed as proactive measures and in this way help communities to create responses that prepare them for future climatic, policy and development challenges.


Developing adaptation optionsWe must aim for actions that will get us onto resilient, low emission development pathway, which operates at two levels:1)The large collective decisions about structural issues which will determine the framework within which we adapt and mitigate

2) The cultural, social and psychological dimensions of values, lifestyle and consumption behaviour

Robinson, et al. 2009Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Developing adaptation options

Going back to the exercise on “future” State – develop responses to the future state.

Eg of future State could be :Increase in minimal temperaturesIncreased rainfall in spring and autumnIncreased droughts and floodsIncrease epidemics of malaria, dengue and encephalitis

What could be potential responses?

How would you prioritise these responses?

Adaptation Prioritization There are a number of options available for

adapting to expected climate impacts. Depending on, for example, available capacities, cultural, social and economic preferences, and urgency for actions adaptation options need to be evaluated and prioritized.

Prioritizing between adaptation options based on criteria that recognize the importance of sustainable development also helps to realize synergies and create long-term adaptation options.


Prioritising adaptation options

Category Criteria

Sustainability

Mitigation co-benefitsEnvironmental impacts

EquityImplementation Cost

Operating and Maintenance Cost

EffectivenessRobustnessReliability

Risk and UncertaintyUrgency

Degree of risk or impactPrecautionary

OpportunityAncillary benefitsNo-regret option

Window of Opportunity

Implementation

Public acceptabilityFunding sources

Capacity (information, technical, staff, resources)Institutional

Scoring the criteriaTechnology required Is the technology for the intervention readily available?

1 = Not available, 2 = Must be imported, 3 = Available in the country, 4 = Locally available, 5 = Already installed

Additional running costs

Will the intervention incur additional running costs? 1 = High costs, 2 = Medium, 3 = Low, 4 = No O&M costs

Local employment To what extent will the intervention impact job creation? 1 = Loss of jobs , 2 = Neutral, 3 = Few jobs (<10), 4 = Many jobs (10-30)

Local capacity to implement

What level is the institutional capacity currently at with respect to the intervention? 1 = Very low, 2 = Low, 3 = Adequate, 4 = High

Acceptability to local community

What is the consumer acceptability of this intervention in terms of additional cost to them and convenience? 1 = None (high additional costs) , 2 = Low (some additional costs or inconvenient), 3 = Neutral, 4 = High (no additional costs)

Long term applicability

What is the period of impact of the intervention? (short - long term) 1 = <2 years, 2 = 2-5 years, 3 = 5-15 years, 4 = 15-25 years, 5 = >25 years

Example of criteria for prioritisationUsing multi-criteria assessment or simpler options

can be classified in categories such as :

A = Urgent adaptation options which can be done by municipalities themselves

B = Urgent adaptation options for which municipalities needed assistance from the Government; options will be then allocated to the responsible ministries

C = Options that provide a non-regret options that help to address problems that they need to be dealt anyway

D = Adaptation options that were less important/urgent

E = Adaptation options for which there was no need or willingness to implementTerritorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Avoiding Mal-adaptation


Mal-adaptation is…. Business as usual

development that inadvertently increases vulnerability to climate risk

Adaptation action that does not succeed in reducing but increases vulnerability

Both aspects of mal-adaptation may have significant costs

Source: Wordpress

Step 5: Costing the adaptation option

There are two main categories of costs:1) The cost & benefit of :

a. the adaptation optionb. non- action or delayed actionc. Maladaptationd. Mitigation benefits

2) The cost & benefit that the ecosystem services provide:

Responding to policy needs:Economic valuation of adaptation and ecosystem

services is often greatly needed by decision makers. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Mainstreaming adaptation Climate change is not just an environmental

issue – it is a development issue. Mainstreaming includes compromises and

tradeoffs among competing local, national and/or regional interests and priorities.

Finally, climate change adaptation mainstreaming processes should account for sustainable development goals of the country at hand as well as all elements, including local/indigenous coping strategies.

closing the cycle – some considerations The importance of developing adaptation

options that can be translated into a concrete management plan and preferably costed

The importance of aligning the adaptation plan to the National Communications, National Adaptation Plans of Action, and the municipal development strategies

The importance of presenting the information in a way that is useful to the policy makers: communication!

Importance of Multi-Level Adaptation Planning (Vertical Integration)


Involvement of multiple levels of governance in development planning requires co-ordination

Division of competence between national and sub-national level varies among countries

National, sub-national and local adaptation action needs to be mutually supportive

Action should be taken at the most appropriate level

Subsidiary principle encourages action at the lowest level of governance

whenever possible recognizes the importance for some action at higher level

Evaluating the Success of Adaptation


Evaluating success of adaptation creates challenges Long time horizon of measures Climate scenarios may be different than

expected Need to wait for ex post evaluation (e.g.

measure to adapt to infrequent event can only be evaluated if event occurred)

Possible to evaluate extent a policy objective was achieved (e.g.

reduction of vulnerability) if anticipated co-benefits were achieved

Monitoring and evaluation may help in spotting mal-adaptation

Some more examples…

Considering Ecosystems and Ecosystem-based Adaptation


Use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to support an overall adaptation strategy

Aims to maintain and increase the resilience and services of ecosystems

Generates social, economic and cultural co-benefits (e.g. conservation of biodiversity, preservation of traditional knowledge systems)

Has climate change mitigation potential (e.g. sequestration of carbon through healthy forests, wetlands, and coastal ecosystems)

EBA is cross-cutting and likely to involve different levels of governance

Examples of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

Maintaining or restoring mangroves, coral reefs and watershed vegetation reduces vulnerability to storm surge, rising sea levels and changing precipitation patterns

Enhancing availability of natural resources as a source of food important to livelihoods

Supporting indigenous peoples to enhance traditional knowledge and management practices in light of a changing climate condition

Maintaining connectivity of ecosystems, e.g. through corridors allowing migration of animals in response to a climate change stressTerritorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Community-based Adaptation (CBA)


CBA involves community-driven processes to consider and cope with climate change

Balances climate considerations with other factors (e.g. unemployment, conflict)

Draws upon community knowledge (e.g. past strategies to cope with shocks)

Takes into account local priorities, needs, knowledge, and capacities

The Case of Rainfall in Kitui, Kenya

Exposure The already arid area of Kitui, likely to receive less water

in the future Rains are no longer reliable and droughts may last longer

Sensitivity Less drinking water available Reduced crops due to lack of irrigation Loss of income and increased poverty

Adaptive Capacity Travelling large distances to collect fresh water not viable Moving of population to other areas not possible Technology not available for digging a deep well


Source: Travel Pod

The Case of Coastal Zone Management in the Netherlands


Exposure The Netherlands are already below sea level with dykes holding

back the North Sea Increased sea level increase risks of coastal inundation and erosion Existing dykes may no longer be effective against higher sea levels

Sensitivity A breach of Dykes would result in

Loss of land Damage to crops Damage to habitats and communities

Adaptive Capacity Funds available to implement adaption measures (e.g. increase

height of dams) Skills and equipment available

Source: Free Photo.com

The Case of Tropical Storms in Jamaica


Exposure The Caribbean already exposed to tropical storms Storms projected to increase in intensity and frequency

Sensitivity Increase of intensive storms may result in additional damage

to crops Soil erosion can follow damage to farm land Loss of income and food security

Adaptive Capacity Local community have some resources to deal with impacts Limited technology and physical resources to prevent future

damage Availability of labour and some financial resources

Source: USA Today

The Case of Mainstreaming Adaptation in China’s Agricultural Sector


Climate change traditionally not included in China’s agricultural planning processes

Project initiated in 2004 to integrate climate change adaptation into China’s Agricultural Development Programme

Supporting measures include Capacity development Monitoring and evaluation

Partners involved Government of China

State Office for Comprehensive Agricultural Development National Development and Reform Commission Ministry of Finance

World Bank/Global Environment Facility (GEF)

UNFCCC-GEF Funding to Support Adaptation: A Snapshot


Least Development Countries Fund (LDCF) Address the vulnerability and low adaptive capacity of of Least

Developed Countries Supported by National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA)

Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) Supports adaptation, technology transfer, and sectoral strategies Addresses special needs of developing countries for long-term

adaptation with priorities given to health, agriculture, water and vulnerable ecosystems

The Adaptation Fund Funded through voluntary contributions and proceedings generated

through the Clean Development Mechanisms Open to Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

Guidance on Adaptation


UNDP Screening Tools and Guidelines to Support the Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Development Assistance – A Stock-taking Report (2010)

UNFCCC Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)

OECD Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation (2009)

USAID Climate Change Adaptation Manual UNEP VIA methodology (presented in this

presentation)

Support Services and Platforms


GEF-UNDP Adaptation Learning Mechanism (http://www.adaptationlearning.net)

WeAdapt (http://wikiadapt.org)

UN CC:Learn (uncclearn.org)

www.uneporg/ieacp/climate

[email protected]

Source: Sussex communigate

http://wikiadapt.org/

http://www.uneporg/ieacp/climate

http://www.uneporg/ieacp/climate

Adapting to Climate Change

Documents

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