Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa by: Jenny Cooper CSIR, National...
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Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa by : Jenny Cooper CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.
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Transcript of Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern Africa by: Jenny Cooper CSIR, National...
Adaptation of Biodiversity to Climate Change in southern
Africa
by: Jenny Cooper
CSIR, National Botanical Institute, University of Pretoria & Kruger National Park.
3 Case studies2. North Eastern Lowveld
1. Succulent Karoo
3. Cape Floral Kingdom
Study area
Three case studies– Cape: data rich, diverse, mountains, patchy– Karoo: data poor, geology– ‘Kruger’: large mammals and birds
Adaptation Options
Five options:– No action– Re-configure parks– Consider alternatives to parks (migration
friendly land-uses)– Facilitated migration and dispersal– Ex-situ conservation (e.g. botanical gardens,
gene banks and/or zoos)
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Current knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)
Step 4Identify and analyse adaptation options to
achieve conservation objectives (economic tools)
Key Analyses:Step 1
Work with stakeholders to identify project plan
Step 2Determine:
Curent knowledge (literature search)Past/present biodiversity management
Species distributions
Step 3Introduce climate change and land cover scenarios
Determine species environmental envelopesModel species responses (dynamic models)Step 4
Identify and analyse adaptation options (economic tools)Step 5
Synthesis, recommendations and training
Research questions to be investigated
What are the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits associated with a range of adaptation options? (MCA)
What are the cost implications if species richness increases/decreases)?
What are the benefits (potential economic returns) of eco-tourism activities? (NE Lowveld)
Research questions to be investigated (cont)
What is the most desirable adaptation option/s in each of the study areas? (Investigate the cost-effectiveness of each option)
What is the sensitivity of costs & benefits to changes in species richness?
Approach adopted:Primary objective is to examine ways of
reducing vulnerability of biodiversity to CC in the most cost-effective and sustainable means.
From previous phases will have identified vulnerability that is likely and adaptation options which can reduce this vulnerability.
Thus will have a short list of ‘viable’ alternatives, which will then be assessed using MCA to identify most preferable option.
Derivation of marginal cost curves for each adaptation option in the study areas (includes examination of land use efficiency, species representation and irreversibility of species loss).
Collection of eco-tourism stats for the Lowveld area (e.g. tourist numbers visiting the KNP, average tourist expenditure, etc).
Approach adopted (cont):
Approach adopted (cont):
Derivation of marginal benefit curves for eco-tourism in the NE Lowveld area only.
Test the sensitivity of costs and benefits to different levels of species richness (ie: determine the elasticity's associated with different costs and benefits).
Select and justify adaptation options in each of the 3 areas in a manner which is understandable to all stakeholder groups.
(No results as yet)Anticipated Problems:
Data availability Determination of TEV (use and non-use
values)Methodological problems (e.g. defining
appropriate discount rate)Lack of existing economic models
unique to each area.
Solutions to overcome problems:
Where no data on the extent of land required to achieve the required level of biodiversity conservation is available than the IUCN figure of 10% of total land area will be used.
Use best available data to determine appropriate discount rate.
Undertake sensitivity analysis to establish the impacts of data assumptions.
Generic economic model will be developed and applied to each area.
Questions and comments?
