Adaptation and forest management in Great Lakes...
Transcript of Adaptation and forest management in Great Lakes...
Stephen Handler USDA Forest Service and NIACS OSU Climate Change Webinar March 25, 2014
Adaptation and forest management
in Great Lakes forests:
custom-made, real-world examples
Acknowledgments
www.forestadaptation.org
Chris Swanston, Director [email protected]
Leslie Brandt, Central Hardwoods and Urban Forests [email protected]
Patricia Butler, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic [email protected]
Maria Janowiak, New England [email protected]
Danielle Shannon Data Analysis and Design [email protected]
Northern Institute of Applied
Climate Science
www.forestadaptation.org
Climate Change Response Framework
Website: www.forestadaptation.org
Central Hardwoods
Urban Forests
Northwoods
Central Appalachians
Mid-Atlantic
New England
Great Lakes Forests
Photos: Heather Keough, Hiawatha NF, Bradford Slaughter
Great Lakes Forests
Figure: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/current_conditions/biodiversity/
Climate and Great Lakes Forests
Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE
Forest Ownership
Figure: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/current_conditions/biodiversity/
Forest Values
Management Complexity
Added Complexity
Climate Change Response Framework
Website: www.forestadaptation.org
Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability
Assessments
Drafts Available: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/climate/draft_docs/
Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessments
Consider a range of future climates
Not considering changes in management, land use, or policy
Do not make recommendations
Central Hardwoods Assessment: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45430
Observed Temperature Change
Sources: www.climatewizard.org
Winter (Dec-Feb)
Summer (Jun-Aug)
Spring (Mar-May)
Fall (Sep-Nov)
Observed Precipitation Change
Sources: Saunders et al. 2012
Frequency of 3”+ rainstorms
Wisconsin Michigan
Projected Climate Change
Least Projected Change
Most Projected Change
PCM
Low emissions (B1) GFDL
High emissions (A1FI)
Projected Precipitation Change (in)
Sources: Stoner et al. 2012, Hayhoe et al. 2011.
Low High
Model Results – Tree Atlas 2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Importance Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Quaking Aspen
Source: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/, Iverson et al.
Model Results – LANDIS
Sources: Duveneck et al. 2014, Handler et al. 2014
White Pine
Impacts on Forests
• CO2 fertilization
• Altered soil moisture
• Extreme weather events
• Less frozen ground
• Increased risk of fire
• Species range shifts
• Expanded pest and disease ranges
Interactions are likely, but hard to predict.
Sources: Handler et al. 2012, Handler et al. 2014
Putting it all Together
Forest Community Vulnerability
Source: Butler et al. In Prep
So how are we supposed to
deal with all this?
Adapt.
Adaptation = taking action to prepare for climate change.
Adaptation activities can build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests
Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010
Climate Change Response Framework
Website: www.forestadaptation.org
Forest Adaptation Resources (FAR):
Designed for a variety of land managers with various goals and objectives
Does not make recommendations
Menu of adaptation strategies & approaches for forest ecosystems
Source: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
1. DEFINE area of interest,
management objectives, etc.
2. ASSESS climate change
impacts and vulnerabilities.
3. EVALUATE management
objectives given climate impacts.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches.
5. MONITOR and evaluate
effectiveness.
Adaptation Workbook
Putting Adaptation Into Practice
1) There is not a single “answer”
2) Critical to start with:
3) Flexibility is key
Manager’s Guide
Decision Tree E-Z Whiz-bang
Tool
a. The place b. Management goals/objectives
A Customized Approach
Encourage Change
Resist Change
Tolerate Change
Adaptation Strategies
Resist Change
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Existing biological stressors.
3: Protect from severe fire and wind.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Species and structural diversity.
6: Ecosystem redundancy.
7: Landscape connectivity.
8: Genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.
Adaptation Strategies
Resist Change
Tolerate Change
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Existing biological stressors.
3: Protect from severe fire and wind.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Species and structural diversity.
6: Ecosystem redundancy.
7: Landscape connectivity.
8: Genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.
Adaptation Strategies
Resist Change
Encourage Change
Tolerate Change
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Existing biological stressors.
3: Protect from severe fire and wind.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Species and structural diversity.
6: Ecosystem redundancy.
7: Landscape connectivity.
8: Genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.
Climate Change Response Framework
Website: www.forestadaptation.org
Real-world Examples
www.forestadaptation.org
Flexibility!
Real-world Examples
www.forestadaptation.org
North Shore Forest Restoration Project
FOREST
TYPE PROPOSED MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS
Paper
Birch
Regenerate paper birch Choose wetter, north-facing sites
Prioritize healthier, younger sites
Underplant to increase
diversity (white pine,
white spruce, yellow
birch, cedar)
Increase % of white pine, decrease
% of white spruce
Plant additional spp (bur oak, red
oak, jack pine, red maple)
Real-world Examples
www.forestadaptation.org
Menominee Oak Wilt Restoration
FOREST TYPE
PROPOSED
MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS
Northern
Hardwoods
Treat oak wilt pockets
(remove infected
trees & stumps, sever
roots)
Plant small % of southern species
(white, bur, chinkapin oak; shagbark
hickory)
Allow natural regeneration of red
oak, white pine
Real-world Examples
www.forestadaptation.org
Ottawa NF Aspen Management
FOREST TYPE
PROPOSED
MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS
Aspen (40+
years)
Regenerate older
aspen stands
Many standard actions are “win-win”
opportunities
Retain red oak, white pine, elm, red
maple, cedar, hemlock
Maintain a diverse range of age
classes across the landscape
Real-world Examples
www.forestadaptation.org
Atlas Timberlands
FOREST TYPE
PROPOSED
MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS
Northern
Hardwoods
Sustainable timber
harvest – frozen
ground conditions
in winter
Test new summer harvest practices
Planning and investment in summer
harvest infrastructure
Source: http://www.vlt.org/atlas-timberlands
Climate Change Response Framework
Website: www.forestadaptation.org
Final Thoughts
1. Learn more: www.forestadaptation.org
2. Get in touch with questions: [email protected], (906) 483-6303
3. NIACS is here to help!
Contacts
www.forestadaptation.org
Chris Swanston, Director [email protected]
Leslie Brandt, Central Hardwoods and Urban Forests [email protected]
Patricia Butler, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic [email protected]
Maria Janowiak, New England [email protected]
Danielle Shannon Data Analysis and Design [email protected]
Stephen Handler, Northwoods [email protected]
Generally expected to decrease Little Change
Generally expected to increase
New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas)
Not sure (Disagreement among models)
Substantial Declines: Black spruce
Eastern redbud* Mountain maple*
Smaller declines:
Balsam fir Paper birch
Quaking aspen Rock elm*
White spruce Wild plum*
*Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only
Bigtooth aspen Chokecherry*
Eastern hophornbeam* Eastern white pine
Jack pine Northern red oak
Northern white-cedar Pin cherry* Red maple Red pine
Striped maple* Sugar maple
Swamp white oak* Tamarack*
Yellow birch
Substantial Increases: American beech Bitternut hickory
Black ash Black locust*
Black oak Black walnut* Black willow*
Eastern cottonwood* Hackberry*
Red mulberry* River birch+
Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm*
Smaller Increases: American elm*
American hornbeam* Boxelder*
Bur oak Butternut*
Eastern hemlock White ash White oak
Chinkapin oak* Eastern redcedar*
Flowering dogwood* Gray birch*
Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory*
Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory*
Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras*
Scarlet oak* Shingle oak* Sweet birch* Sycamore*
Yellow-poplar*
(Atlas/LANDIS): American basswood (0/++)
Balsam poplar (--/0) Black cherry (++/0)
Green ash (-/+) Northern pin oak (0/++)
Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species
PCM B1 Scenario (Less Change)
Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan
Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.
Generally expected to decrease Little Change
Generally expected to increase
New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas)
Not sure (Disagreement among models)
Substantial Declines: Balsam fir
Black spruce Butternut*
Chokecherry* Mountain maple*
Paper birch Pin cherry*
Quaking aspen White spruce Yellow birch
Smaller declines: Black ash
Eastern white pine Jack pine
Northern white-cedar Striped maple*
Sugar maple Tamarack*
*Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only
Green ash Northern red oak
Red pine
Substantial Increases: American elm*
American hornbeam* Bitternut hickory
Black locust* Black oak
Black walnut* Black willow*
Boxelder* Eastern cottonwood*
Eastern redbud* Hackberry*
Red mulberry* River birch*
Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm*
White oak Wild plum*
Smaller Increases:
American basswood American beech
Black cherry Bur oak
Eastern hophornbeam* Peachleaf willow* Swamp white oak*
White ash
Black hickory* Blackgum*
Blackjack oak* Chestnut oak* Chinkapin oak*
Common persimmon* Eastern redcedar*
Flowering dogwood* Gray birch*
Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Northern catalpa*
Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory*
Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras*
Scarlet oak* Shellbark hickory*
Shingle oak* Sugarberry* Sweet birch* Sweeygum* Sycamore*
Yellow-poplar*
(Atlas/LANDIS): Balsam poplar (0/--) Bigtooth aspen (0/--)
Eastern hemlock (0/--) Northern pin oak (0/++)
Red maple (-/+)
Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species
GFDL A1FI Scenario (Greater Change)
Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan
Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.
Global Surface Temp
Sources: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013
Global Surface Temp
Sources: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013
Global Surface Temp
Sources: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
Global Surface Temp
Sources: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yrfig.htm; see also: Hansen et al. 1990, Petit et al. 1999, Shackleton 2000, Ruddiman 2006, Shakun et al. 2012
Change happens.
IPCC 2007
The average global surface temperature has risen 1.4 ºF over the past 100 years
Change happens.
www.heavy.com
How it usually works
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/national/polar-vortex/
Weak and wobbly jetstream
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Michigan: 6.2 degrees
below avg. for February
Alaska: 14.8 degrees
above avg. for January
The big picture
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/2
Last Spring Frost
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
Low High
Nights below 0 ºF
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
Low High
Snowpack more than 10in.
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
Low High
CO2 Fertilization
Sources: Ainsworth and Long 2005, 2007; Jones et al. 2005; Norby et al. 2005
Increased photosynthesis
Increase in water use efficiency
Greater biomass (trees: 28%)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Jones et al. 2005, Norby et al. 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007
Altered Soil Moisture
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Changes in Species Distributions
Sugar Maple
Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)
2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Current Distribution Importance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000