ACTIVITY CENTRES PLANNING STRATEGY (DRAFT) · Activity Centres Planning Strategy (Draft) 4 Figure...

ACTIVITY CENTRES PLANNING STRATEGY

(DRAFT)

2012

OCM 24 APRIL 2012 APPENDIX 13.5.4D

City of Gosnells Activity Centres Planning Strategy (Draft)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction .....................................................................................................................1

1.1 What are Activity Centres? 1.2 Why Prepare an Activity Centres Strategy? 1.3 Strategy Objectives 1.4 Terminology

2. Planning Context.............................................................................................................3

2.1 Previous Draft Local Commercial Strategy 2.2 Directions 2031 and Beyond 2.3 Outer Metropolitan Perth and Peel Sub-Regional Strategy 2.4 SPP 4.2 Activity Centres for Perth and Peel 2.5 Liveable Neighbourhoods 2.6 City of Gosnells Local Housing Strategy 2.7 Other Local Planning Initiatives

3. Population and Growth.................................................................................................16

3.1 Population and Dwelling Projections 3.2 Household Income

4. Activity Centres .............................................................................................................24

4.1 Activity Centres Floorspace 4.2 Public Transport and Activity Centres 4.3 An Observation - Two Classes of Activity Centre 4.4 Other Commercial Areas

5. Retail Needs Assessment.............................................................................................32

5.1 Summary of Generic Retail Spend Modelling 5.2 Retail Needs Assessment Overview 5.3 Gravity Model 5.4 Study Area 5.5 Modelling Process 5.6 Summary of Results

6. Strategy Recommendations.........................................................................................40

6.1 The Nature of Strategy 6.2 The Strategy Approach 6.3 Strategy Components 6.4 Strategy Actions

Appendix A: Draft Activity Centres Inventory Appendix B: Gravity Model Explained Appendix C: Gravity Modelling Results


City of Gosnells Activity Centres Planning Strategy (Draft) 1

1. INTRODUCTION This document is known as the City of Gosnells Activity Centres Planning Strategy (ACPS). 1.1. What are Activity Centres? Activity centres are community focal points. They include activities such as commercial, retail, higher-density housing, entertainment, tourism, civic/community, higher education and medical services. Activity centres vary in size and diversity and are intended to be well-serviced by public transport. 1.2. Why prepare an Activity Centres Planning Strategy? The State Government's planning framework for Perth aims to provide an even distribution of jobs, services and amenities throughout the region and sets broad requirements for the development of new activity centres and the redevelopment of existing centres. These requirements are mainly concerned with the distribution, function, broad land use and urban design criteria of activity centres, as well as the integration with public transport and the achievement of infrastructure and economic efficiencies, lower energy use, sense of place and consolidation of mixed land uses to contribute to a balanced network. Local authorities are required to ensure their own planning frameworks properly interpret and reflect State planning guidance and provide a rationale for development control at the local level. The ACPS is intended to form part of the City's Local Planning Strategy and guide decisions to be made in respect to structure plans, the Town Planning Scheme and applications for subdivision and development.

1.3. Strategy Objectives

The objectives of the ACPS are to: • Contribute to the implementation of Directions 2031 and State Planning Policy

(SPP) 4.2 - Activity Centres for Perth and Peel. • Promote and facilitate the provision and responsive evolution of a viable, convenient, and

attractive network of activity centres to serve the retail, other commercial, social and cultural needs of the City.

• Ensure new activity centres are functional and of high quality. • Improve existing activity centres. • Encourage and facilitate the provision of more localised business and employment

opportunities. • Help determine the location and potential extent of the various commercial and mixed-use

development in the City's structure plans and Town Planning Scheme.


City Of Gosnells Activity Centres Planning Strategy (Draft) 2

• Guide the formulation and review of planning policies relating to commercial and mixed-use development.

• Guide the consideration and determination of applications for commercial development.

1.4 Terminology The following terms are used throughout the ACPS: SPP 4.2: means State Planning Policy 4.2 - Activity Centres for Perth and Peel, which is the Western Australian Planning Commission's Policy finalised in August 2010 to guide the development of commercial centres. Retail: in its non-technical, common sense meaning is used frequently in the interests of general readability. Shop/Retail: specifically refers to one of two Retail categories defined by the WAPC (see SPP 4.2 for details) and includes virtually all retail activities normally found within shopping centres. It excludes most of the activities normally referred to as “bulky goods” retail. Other Retail: is the other specific Retail category defined in detail by the WAPC. It mostly includes those retail activities normally referred to as “bulky goods” (e.g. furniture, floor coverings, etc), but also includes hardware. Total Retail: specifically refers to Shop/ Retail plus Other Retail. Net Lettable Area (NLA): in square metres is the unit of measurement for all retail and other commercial floorspace. It includes all internal floorspace except stairs, toilets, lift shafts and motor rooms, escalators, tea rooms and other service areas, lobbies, and areas used for public spaces or thoroughfares. Note that non-public storerooms within large shops (such as supermarkets) are not classified as “Shop/ Retail” NLA, but as “Storage” NLA. Retail Needs Assessment (RNA): The study required under Clause 6.2.2 of SPP 4.2 to estimate the retail needs and indicative distribution of floorspace across the activity centres in a local government area; and to guide the preparation of district and activity centre structure plans. This working paper includes a RNA. Retail Sustainability Assessment (RSA): The study required under Clause 6.5 of SPP 4.2 to assess the potential economic and related effects of a significant retail expansion on the network of activity centres in a locality. RSA's are not required where the proposed development is in accordance with an endorsed planning strategy or structure plan that has been based on a RNA. Town Planning Scheme No.6 (TPS 6): The planning blueprint for land use and development of the City. Detailed Area Plan: A form of structure plan used to guide the fine grain development of activity centres. Centre Plan: Similar to a Detailed Area Plan for the purposes of the ACPS.



2. PLANNING CONTEXT This section provides an overview of current planning strategy and policy documents relevant to activity centres.

2.1 Previous Draft Local Commercial Strategy A draft Local Commercial Strategy was finalised by the City in October 1999, but it was never subsequently endorsed by the WAPC. Its stated objectives were: • To establish an appropriate hierarchy of centres.

• To ensure that centres are viable, attractive, readily accessible by all transport modes, and provide for a wide range of functions, including retail, office development, recreation and other community services.

• To encourage a more even employment distribution and promote increased use of public transport.

• To control the spread of commercial development in the inner suburbs.

• To control and contain commercial ribbon development and the intrusion of inappropriate retail and other non-industrial commercial uses into industrial areas.

• To promote sustainable urban development.

• To facilitate mixed use development where appropriate, including home-based businesses.

• To streamline the planning approval process and bring statutory controls into alignment with the Strategy.

These are familiar objectives. It would appear that, over time, the objectives of good urban planning get stated and re-stated many times yet the outcomes are of variable quality. Notwithstanding that the previous draft Strategy was not finalised, Council has given it regard in amending its Town Planning Scheme, preparing and considering Outline Development Plans and other Structure Plans and in considering applications for subdivision and development. Much has changed in the City of Gosnells since the draft Strategy was prepared. The population has increased from approximately 76,000 people in 1999 to 108,000 in 2011. New areas have opened up for development and established areas have started to experience redevelopment. New commercial centres have been developed and there have been changes in the way retailing industry operates, particularly with trends toward large-format retailing and amendments to trading times. The socio-economic characteristics of the area have changed and there is significant diversity in the community, with evidence emerging of increased spending capacity of households particularly in newer suburbs. The previous draft Strategy identified Canning Vale and Southern River as key growth areas. Southern River was identified as the site for a future district centre, including a district-level mixed-business area. However, it was noted that this centre could be replaced by a network of large and small neighbourhood/ local centres, an option that was subsequently chosen, but in the process insufficient sites for mixed-business uses were identified to serve the Southern River area (Figure 1).



Figure 1: Previous Local Commercial Strategy Map In November 2001 the draft Strategy was updated in relation to the Southern River area, to reflect the Southern River, Forrestdale, Brookdale, Wungong District Structure Plan (SRFBWSP) (Figure 2). Three strategy options were presented in the 2001 Strategy update: • One that emphasised the larger neighbourhood centres • One that emphasised the smaller centres and • A compromise between the two.



Figure 2: Extract from the SRFBWSP

Rapid and extensive growth in Canning Vale and Southern River has since occurred. It emerged over the time since the 2001 Strategy update that the SRFBWSP pattern of centres, which formed the basis of the previous Strategy, was not developing as intended, but more in accordance with the original option 1 of larger neighbourhood centres. The 2001 Strategy update did not in itself define or specify a recommended pattern of centres. The pattern of centres was determined during the SRFBWSP planning process. The approach taken in the 2001 Strategy update was to assume that the proposed pattern of centres was a given and therefore define centre sizes required to give the SRFBWSP effect. Confirming the direction for a network of centres in Southern River, given it will be the primary growth area in the City for the next 10-15 years and beyond, is therefore a priority focus of the ACPS.



The previous Strategy recognised that in addition to catering for new urban growth, there also needed to be a focus on existing centres which were then, and to much the same extent now, are mixed in terms of appearance, function and economic performance. Centre plans were suggested as a tool to set out the desirable size and form of a particular centre, but it was also recognised that it is difficult to actually facilitate improvements to existing centres. The previous Strategy identified that while there will be land owners who will initiate development and perhaps prepare centre plans, there will be other situations where a desirable outcome will not eventuate unless it is initiated and creatively managed by the local authority. The prime example of this was the substantial investment by the City in the revitalisation of the Gosnells Town Centre and visioning exercises undertaken for the regeneration of the Maddington Regional Centre and Kenwick. The Gosnells Town Centre has substantially improved in terms of its physical appearance, amenity and economic performance. Work is continuing on forming a framework to guide the renewal of Maddington and Kenwick, though actual regeneration will take some time to achieve. Improving these areas will be an ongoing objective. A key consideration of the ACPS is whether it should seek to go further than the previous draft strategy to identify and focus on highly practical issues in an attempt to ensure consistent positive action, and not be merely a static town plan with marginal on-going practical relevance. It is clear however that a continued focus on both established and future centres in the City remains as the obvious direction for the ACPS. 2.2 Directions 2031 and Beyond (WAPC August 2010) Directions 2031 is the State Government's planning strategy for the Perth and Peel regions, which aims to realise the benefits of a more consolidated city, including:

• A reduced overall need for travel;

• Support for the use of public transport, cycling and walking for access to services, facilities and employment; and

• A more energy efficient urban form.

It supersedes the draft Network City policy and replaces Metroplan and all other metropolitan strategies as the highest level spatial framework and strategic plan for Perth/Peel. Directions 2031 assumes, based on Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) projections, a regional population increase of about half a million people to a total of 2.2 million by 2031 – generating the need for another 328,000 dwellings and 353,000 jobs - and looks beyond 2031 to a likely regional population of 3.5 million by 2050. It models three possible future growth scenarios involving low, medium and high density rates of infill and greenfield development and advocates the “connected city” model as the preferred medium density growth scenario for the region – this involves a 50% increase in both the level of infill residential development, and in average residential density per gross urban zoned hectare. Directions 2031 defines an Activity Centre hierarchy aimed at providing a more balanced distribution of jobs throughout the metropolitan region, with improved levels of employment self-sufficiency in outer areas.



It emphasises the need for Activity Centres, particularly higher order centres, to contain a more diverse range of services and activities to help facilitate economic development and employment. The Perth/Peel region is divided into one central and five outer sub-regional planning areas – the south-east metropolitan sub-region comprises the local authorities of Gosnells, Armadale and Serpentine-Jarrahdale. The estimated population increase in the south-east sub-region is from a 2008 figure of 170,000 to 228,000 by 2031 (34% growth). An estimated 50% increase in the labour force and a 97% increase in jobs is forecast, thus increasing employment self-sufficiency from 42% in 2008 to 55% in 2031. Selected themes and strategies that are particularly relevant to the ACPS are: A Liveable City • Good urban design – reflecting and supporting the WAPC's Liveable Neighbourhoods

community design policy.

• Community safety – supporting designing out crime guidelines. • Increased housing supply – targeting locations in and around retail and employment

centres. Prosperous City • Hierarchy of locations for economic activity – particularly the planned hierarchical network

of activity centres. • Activity centres to facilitate economic development and employment – economic

diversification, high amenity, and employment growth in mixed-use activity centres. • Increased sub-regional employment self-sufficiency – encourage businesses to

de-centralise. An Accessible City • Connect communities with jobs and services – support activity centres with public transport,

and facilitate transit oriented development. • Plan and develop mixed-use and higher density transit oriented development – achieve

more effective land use/transport integration through WAPC/Local Government partnerships.

A Responsible City • Minimise conflict between land use and key infrastructure assets – with local planning

strategies to play a key economic role. A suite of implementation measures are set out. While some are essential regional planning measures, many simply set the scene for further studies, many of which are already completed or underway in the City, such as the development and implementation of a local housing strategy. These measures highlight the need for high quality development control, without which would otherwise render the Strategy's objectives as aspirational.



2.3 Outer Metropolitan Perth and Peel Sub-Regional Strategy (Draft for Public Comment; WAPC August 2010)

The draft Outer Metropolitan Perth and Perth Sub-Regional Strategy document complements Directions 2031, addressing in more detail strategic planning issues in the five outer sub-regions of the region. In the south-east sub-region, approximately 5,000 hectares of undeveloped urban/urban deferred land is identified, with 800 hectares in the City of Gosnells and three “urban expansion areas” of about 400 hectares in total, with 100 hectares in the City. In terms of demographic characteristics, the south-east sub-region is noted as containing a higher proportion of young families and separate houses than the metropolitan average. It is predicted that household size in the south-east sub-region will drop markedly from 2.75 persons per dwelling to 2.21 persons per dwelling by 2031. (This is at odds with the Forecast id projection, which is discussed later.) Two scenarios to estimate future dwelling unit yields from greenfield and infill development are used – for the City of Gosnells the figures range from 17,200 additional dwellings (about half each greenfield and infill) under the low density “business as usual” scenario to 23,100 additional dwellings (comprising 12,900 greenfield and 10,200 infill) under the preferred medium density “connected city” scenario. The draft Strategy aims to increase employment self-sufficiency in south-east sub-region from the current level of 42% to 55% over the next 25 years, meaning that an estimated 32,000 to 48,000 additional jobs (depending on growth scenario) will need to be provided – this self-sufficiency target should be used to help guide the extent of commercial development in activity centres and industrial areas in the sub-region. Key activity centres in the south-east sub-region are identified as Armadale (classified as a strategic metropolitan centre in the activity centres hierarchy) and Maddington (classified as a secondary centre). The existing Gosnells, Thornlie and Forest Lakes centres are identified as district centres in the City of Gosnells. 2.4 SPP 4.2 Activity Centres for Perth and Peel Gazetted in August 2010, State Planning Policy (SPP) 4.2 specifies broad planning requirements for the planning and development of new activity centres and the redevelopment and renewal of existing centres in Perth and Peel. It is mainly concerned with the distribution, function, broad land use and urban design criteria of activity centres, and with coordinating their land use and infrastructure planning. The policy objective of creating “mixed use” centres, as distinct from “shopping centres” is now somewhat more strongly stated and obvious than it was before. In addition to describing the functional centres hierarchy, Table 3 of the policy now includes “mix of land uses” performance targets for district centres and higher. There are no such targets for neighbourhood/ local centres which, apart from facilitating provision for some local professional offices, can (apparently) remain largely as shopping centres.



Liveable Neighbourhoods does, however, envisage neighbourhood and local centres as mixed use activity centres. The need for an appropriate functional hierarchy of centres throughout Perth and Peel is still the main rationale for SPP 4.2. The former Strategic Regional and Regional centres are now called “Strategic Metropolitan” and “Secondary” centres, and a new category has been added – “Specialised” centres, which includes Perth's two airports, the main university campuses and the QEII Medical Centre. In accordance with the emphasis placed upon it by Directions 2031 and Beyond, SPP 4.2 now also places a higher emphasis on employment and the need to achieve sub-regional employment self-sufficiency targets. Reducing dependency on private cars and increasing public and other non-car transport use are also given greater prominence than was previously the case. The critical mass and associated employment and transport efficiency associated with larger centres is perhaps why these are seen by SPP 4.2 to be the preferred centres for “mixed use”, rather than the neighbourhood/local centres. The significance of better urban design for activity centres is also greatly increased in the SPP 4.2, with inclusion in the policy of a 20 page Model Centre Framework aimed at providing guidance on the preparation of activity centre structure plans. These need to be prepared for activity centres at all levels in the hierarchy except the neighbourhood/ local level. The policy notes, however, that detailed area plans may be needed for neighbourhood centres. The Model Centre Framework overlaps with and reflects much of Element 7 of Liveable Neighbourhoods. Local planning strategies should reflect SPP 4.2, particularly the hierarchy of centres. Local planning strategies will be used as the basis for planning schemes, amendments, activity centre structure plans, district and local structure plans, as well as development applications. SPP 4.2 also requires that a local planning strategy include a Retail Needs Assessment in order to show the estimated retail needs and indicative distribution of floorspace across the activity centres. 2.5 Liveable Neighbourhoods Liveable Neighbourhoods operates as policy or design code to guide the development of sustainable communities. Element 7 of Liveable Neighbourhoods still represents the urban design benchmark for activity centres and states that centres that do not include residential uses do not meet the definition of a mixed-use centre. However, the 400 metre catchment provision for local centres in new urban areas is now highly questionable in terms of economic viability, particularly in an outer suburban context, which presents a key consideration in drafting the recommendations of the ACPS.



2.6 City of Gosnells Local Housing Strategy (2006) The City's Local Housing Strategy was adopted by Council in December 2003 and approved by WAPC in October 2005, with the following aims and recommendations: • To create a more compact and energy efficient form of urban development with emphasis on

efficient use of facilities, services and infrastructure – the need to promote sustainable development is stated as the overarching principle of the Strategy.

• To redress predominance of single residential low density housing (accounting for 93% of

total housing stock in 2001) in the City by facilitating a more diverse range of dwelling types to better cater for the demographic changes occurring in the community.

• To achieve these key objectives by identifying areas in the City best suited to accommodating

increased residential densities, based primarily on proximity to commercial centres, public transport nodes and/ or community facilities – “accessibility indicator” mapping shows highest levels of accessibility generally within a 400 metre pedestrian catchment of train stations and local centres, consistent with Liveable Neighbourhoods principles.

• Divides the City into 16 Housing Precincts and develops an overall Strategy Map, together

with Local Housing Strategy Precinct Plans for the eleven precincts deemed suitable for a density increase – significant portions of two of these precincts (Central Maddington and North Gosnells) are not included in the relevant strategy plans, however, as they are subject to guided development schemes which already make provision for increased densities near Maddington and Gosnells train stations.

• Advocates increasing residential densities generally as follows – R60 areas mainly within 400

metres of Beckenham, Kenwick and Thornlie stations; R40 areas near Seaforth station, Spencer Village neighbourhood centre and Forest Lakes district centre; R30 or R35 areas near other centres including Tooting Street, Highbury Crescent, Brixton Street, Langford Village, Kenwick Village, Westfield Street, Thornlie Square/Spencer Road, George Street, Ashburton Village and Matilda Street.

• Recommends pursuing the density increases through amendments to Town Planning

Scheme No 6, including density bonuses for corner lots. • Proposes changing the base residential density code across residential zoned areas in the

City from 17.5 to R20. The City has made substantial progress in implementing the Local Housing Strategy. Amendment No. 111, which was finalised in October 2010, recoded the approximately 4,000 properties in the eleven identified precincts for higher density. Amendment No. 112, which makes provision for the granting of density bonuses for corner lots, was adopted by Council in June 2011. Council also adopted Amendment No. 119 in June 2011, which recoded an additional 670 properties for higher density in response to consultation feedback on Amendment No.111 that called for expansion of areas proposed for recoding. The proposals pave the way for a significant amount of infill development, which depending on the extent of uptake by land owners, potentially will go a long way to achieving and perhaps even exceeding the dwelling targets set by the State Government for the region.



Figure 3: Housing Access Indicator and Amendment 111 Overlay Areas shaded blue in Figure 3 were rezoned for higher density by Amendment No. 111 to TPS 6.



2.7 Other Local Planning Initiatives

Considerable resources have been invested in establishing planning frameworks in different parts of the City. Growth is anticipated to occur in the next 20 years in new urban areas and established neighbourhoods where there is significant scope for redevelopment. In addition to those areas rezoned as part of the Local Housing Strategy scheme amendment initiatives, most growth is anticipated to occur in the following areas. 2.7.1 Southern River A large proportion of the urban growth expected to occur in the City will be in Southern River. Plans are in place to guide the continued development of land in Southern River Precincts 1 and 2, generally from Warton Road towards Southern River Road, between Holmes Street and Ranford Road. A Local Structure Plan is in place to guide development in the area east of Southern River Road towards Passmore Street, between the Southern River and Ranford Road. Land beyond Passmore Street towards Tonkin Highway and extending across the Southern River towards the Seaforth rail station is in single ownership and expected to be developed over at least 20 years from 2012. 2.7.2 Central Maddington Outline Development Plan A plan to guide redevelopment of an 80ha area comprised of over 550 existing residential properties in Maddington was adopted by Council in 2009. The Outline Development Plan identifies land for increased residential densities around the Maddington rail station and seeks to facilitate new and upgraded infrastructure and open space to cater for more intensive development and the needs of existing and future residents.



2.7.3 Maddington Town Centre An enquiry-by-design workshop was held in 2004 as an initiative of the Maddington-Kenwick Sustainable Communities Partnership, aimed at exploring possibilities for revitalising the Maddington town centre and station precinct. As well as generating development ideas, the workshop considered the implications of two major influences on the centre’s future – its regional role within the (then recently released) Network City Strategy and the opportunity to redevelop the Maddington Station and walkable catchment. A wide range of measures aimed at achieving the vision that Maddington mature and grow into a more sustainable mixed use town were identified including improved public realm, intensification of commercial uses on Albany Highway, better integration of Maddington Centro shopping centre with the surrounding town centre, extension of Blackburn Street from the shopping centre to station, redevelopment of the City Operations Centre as a high quality mixed use precinct close to an improved station and consolidation of residential development.

Figure 4: Central Maddington ODP



A policy has since been adopted and a structure plan is being drafted for the town centre area with the objectives of creating a vibrant and active mixed use town centre, with high quality activated streetscapes and an emphasis on pedestrian access and amenity and transit oriented development.

Figure 5 - Maddington Town Centre Enquiry-by-Design Outcomes Plan There are also other large land holdings in other parts of Maddington, towards Tonkin Highway, that have been identified for future urban development. The various planning initiatives in Maddington have the potential to lead to a substantial increase in the resident population of the area. 2.7.4 Kenwick Vision Plan In 2007 the City undertook the “Kenwick by Design” workshops that brought government and community stakeholders together to explore future development and design possibilities for revitalising the suburb of Kenwick. The adopted vision is to create sustainable, vibrant centres in the locality by consolidating and enhancing the two existing activity nodes of Kenwick Town Centre and Kenwick Village. The Town Centre – generally covering the area within a 400 metre (walkable) radius of Kenwick rail station, which would form an identifiable “activity hub” – is proposed to be developed as a pedestrian friendly close-knit urban core that would include “mainstreet” style (convenience oriented) retail on Albany Highway, medium to high density residential and a mix of other uses.



Proposals for Kenwick Village include consolidating the existing commercial/service core, creating a “village green’ to encourage community gatherings, encouraging mixed use and higher density residential development near the core, and providing strategic new street connections to better integrate facilities around the village. 2.7.5 West Martin Planning Precinct Directions 2031 identifies West Martin as a development investigation area. Development of West Martin is identified as having potential benefit to the Gosnells town centre by increasing the residential population in close proximity to the centre. There are various servicing and environmental constraints to address in the area, including the suitability of development of land potential impacted on by nearby extractive industry operations, but if these issues can be addressed, West Martin has the potential to be a focal point for future urban growth and activity.

F Figure 6: Kenwick Vision Plan



3. POPULATION AND GROWTH The City of Gosnells has experienced a sustained period of population growth, which is anticipated to continue over the next twenty years albeit at slower rates than that experienced in recent times. Urban growth is expected to occur in both greenfield situations and established residential areas, though as detailed in the following section, there are varying projections on the extent of anticipated development. The spending capacity of the City's population has changed in recent years, with residents in the newly developed areas generally being more affluent than the City average. These factors significantly influence the recommendations contained in the ACPS.

3.1 Population and Dwelling Projections There are two current, relevant population projections to consider: • WA Tomorrow (WAPC) • City of Gosnells (Forecast.id) Each of these is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Dwelling Unit and Population Projections 2006-2031 DwWAT = Dwelling projections under WA Tomorrow forecasts. DwID = Dwelling projections under Forecast 10 forecasts. PopWAT = Population projections under WA Tomorrow forecasts. PopID = Population projections under Forecast 10 forecasts.



The key points to note from Figure 7 include: • Steady population and dwelling unit growth under the Forecast id projection. • Somewhat erratic growth projections under the WA Tomorrow projection. • At 2031 the difference between the two is quite large for population (19,721), but relatively

small for dwelling units (753 dwelling units). • This is because the WA Tomorrow projections anticipate a more significant reduction in the

occupancy ratio than Forecast id. • Neither projection reflects the preferred scenario of Directions 2031. • The current population of the City, as at 30 June 2011, is estimated at 108,000, which means

the WA Tomorrow projection for 2026 has already been reached. Figure 8 shows how the WA Tomorrow dwelling unit projections are distributed amongst Main Roads Zones (MRZ).



Figure 8: WA Tomorrow Dwelling Unit Projections by Main Roads Zones



Figure 9 - Dwelling Change by Main Road Zones.

Figure 8 suggests relatively high growth anticipated in the western parts of the City, medium growth along a north-west to south-east axis extending from Beckenham to Gosnells and relatively low growth along a similarly aligned axis extending from Langford, through Thornlie to Huntingdale. This pattern is reflected in Figure 9, which also shows total numbers of dwellings in each MRZ. Preliminary analysis of the Forecast id population projections also serves to reflect this distribution (Figure 10), though with an obviously higher amount of forecast urban growth than in the WA Tomorrow data.



Figure 10 Forecast Id Population Growth Projections and Distribution.

City of Gosnells Areas 2006 2031 Change Dwellings No. % No. % 2006 to 2031 Whole City 36,977 100.0 52,791 100.0 15,914 Beckenham 2,583 7.0 3,558 6.7 975 Canning Vale (north) 2,178 5.9 3,562 6.7 1,384 Canning Vale (south) 2,829 7.7 4,122 7.8 1,293 Gosnells (Balance) 2,521 6.8 3,354 6.4 833 Gosnells (Central) 5,129 13.9 7,101 13.5 1,972 Huntingdale 3,032 8.2 3,912 7.4 880 Kenwick 2,110 5.7 2,394 4.5 284 Langford 2,068 5.6 2,199 4.2 131 Maddington 3,962 10.7 5,422 10.3 1,460 Martin (East) & Orange Grove 547 1.5 652 1.2 105 Martin (West) 188 0.5 1,096 2.1 908 Southern River (East) 219 0.6 2,014 3.8 1,795 Southern River (West) 933 2.5 3,978 7.5 3,045 Thornlie (Central) 4,154 11.3 4,275 8.1 121 Thornlie (East) 2,072 5.6 2,279 4.3 207 Thornlie (West) 2,353 6.4 2,873 5.4 521

Figure 11: Forecast id Dwelling Growth Projection and Distribution



Comparison between Figures 8, 9 and 10 and analysis of the dwelling projections in Figure 11 indicates that a significant amount of proposed growth will occur in well-established areas. Development in these areas particularly that which is facilitated by changes to residential density codes by recent planning scheme amendments is likely to be one of the main means by which the Directions 2031 preferred scenario could potentially be realised. There is also significant new urban growth anticipated in Canning Vale and to a greater extent Southern River and Gosnells. While the ACPS was prepared, representations were made on behalf of the owners of the large tract of land that extends from near the Seaforth rail station, along Tonkin Highway through to Ranford Road in Southern River. This land is effectively in single ownership and the owners have indicated their intent to commence development in the near future. Their projections of development yield are significantly greater than those outlined in the Forecast Id projections. While they could prove to be somewhat optimistic in relation to the amount of dwellings and the timing for their construction, the retail needs assessment has assumed the “ultimate” potential could be achieved. Given the “connected city” objective of Directions 2031, the projection is considered reasonable for strategic planning purposes. As indicated in Figure 12, the ACPS has assumed that by 2031 the population of the City of Gosnells will have increased to about 137,100 persons occupying some 61,400 dwelling units. The anticipated increase between 2006 and 2031 is 25,510 dwelling units. This estimate exceeds the WAPC's preferred “connected city” objective for the City of an additional 23,100 dwelling units.

Figure 12 - Adjusted Population Projections based on Forecast Id, after consideration of new growth data for large future development cell adjacent to Tonkin Highway in South Gosnells/Southern River.



The updated projection on a small area basis is presented diagrammatically in Figure 13. Note the greatly increased projected growth in Southern River.

Figure 13 - Adjusted Dwelling Unit Projections by Main Roads Zones 3.2 Household Income The ABS 2006 household income profile for the City of Gosnells as a whole is presented in Figure 14. Points worthy of note in Figure 14 include: • The proportion of study area households in the lower income groups (less than $800 per

week (33%)) is about the same as for the Perth region as a whole (32.5%). • The proportion of households in the middle range of household incomes ($800-$1,699 per

week (35%) is a little higher than the equivalent for the Perth region as a whole (31%). • The proportion of study area households in the higher income groups ($1,700 per week plus

(20%)) is somewhat lower than the equivalent for WA as a whole (25%). This household income profile indicates that, while all income groups are represented within the City of Gosnells, household incomes are, on average, fairly similar to those for the Perth Metropolitan Region as a whole, except for the two highest income groups.



It is evident, however, that average household incomes vary between different localities, and these variations were taken into account during the detailed centres modelling phase.

City Of Gosnells Weekly household income income groups (households)

2006

Enumerated data number %

Perth Statistical Division %

Negative / Nil income 251 0.8 1.1

$1 to $149 356 1.1 1.2

$150 to $249 1,275 4.0 4.4

$250 to $349 1,846 5.8 6.4

$350 to $499 1,350 4.2 3.9

$500 to $649 3,167 9.9 9.3

$650 to $799 2,300 7.2 6.3

$800 to $999 2,567 8.0 6.9

$1000 to $1199 3,772 11.8 10.5

$1200 to $1399 2,144 6.7 5.3

$1400 to $1699 2,743 8.6 8.0

$1700 to $1999 2,216 6.9 6.6

$2000 to $2499 2,053 6.4 6.6

$2500 to $2999 1,223 3.8 6.3

$3000 or more 852 2.7 5.3

Partial income stated 2,925 9.2 9.3

All incomes not stated 917 2.9 2.8

Total 31,957 100.0 100.0

Figure 14: Household Income - City of Gosnells (2006)



4. ACTIVITY CENTRES

The state and size of the existing activity centres in the City are well documented in Appendix A - Activity Centres Inventory. The Inventory represents a very useful information base and a benchmark for future such inventories. The details will not be elaborated upon in detail in this section of the ACPS. The activity centres summary table is presented in Figure 15.

4.1 Activity Centre Floorspace

Note: the floorspace descriptions used in the shaded blue header row in Figures 15 and 16 are explained in Appendix A.

Figure 15: City of Gosnells: Floorspace (NLA) by Activity Centre and PLUC



How the overall supply of retail floorspace in activity centres has changed since 1997 is illustrated in Figure 16.

Figure 16: Activity Centres Floorspace Change 1997 - 2010. Source: City of Gosnells

Figure 16 demonstrates the very large increases in floorspace between 1997 and 2010. However, between 1997 and 2010, the City's population increased by about 29%. It would appear clear that much of the retail and other commercial floorspace in the City caters to a catchment extending well beyond the City's boundaries. This would especially be the case for mixed-business (Other Retail) floorspace. However, it could also indicate that in 1997 the internal supply of retail and other commercial floorspace fell somewhat short of the demand. This demonstrates the importance of regional/sub-regional modelling when assessing retail floorspace requirements. 4.2 Public Transport and Activity Centres The close integration of activity centres with public transport is a key aim of Directions 2031 and SPP 4.2. Established parts of the City are reasonably well serviced by rail infrastructure with stations at Beckenham, Kenwick, Thornlie, Maddington, Gosnells and Seaforth. Of these stations, Gosnells represents the best example of good integration with the surrounding activity centre. The station was rebuilt in its current location in 2004 and the potential exists for significant redevelopment in the centre, particularly in the immediately adjacent area.



As set out in section 2.6, the better integration of Maddington and Kenwick stations into the activity centres is central to the planning initiatives to regenerate these areas. This will need to include improvements to the station environment, which is presently poor. Beckenham, Thornlie and Seaforth stations are not well integrated with transit oriented commercial development, though there is some potential for this to occur in future. The City is keen to see improvements to the stations in terms of passenger facilities, safety, parking and integration with bus services and has advocated for extension of the Thornlie spur line towards Canning Vale and beyond to service the substantial urban growth in the area. The State Government's draft Public Transport for Perth in 2031 plan recognises the potential for extension of the rail service to Canning Vale, but indicates that this will not occur within the next 20 years. The City is serviced by a network of bus routes, as shown in Figure 17. The provision of bus routes and their relationship with the activity centres is about as good as one could reasonably expect given the outer suburban location. Frequency times could be improved, however this would only likely occur with substantially increased patronage.



Figure 17: Bus Routes and Activity Centres



4.3 An Observation – Two Classes of Activity Centres There are fundamentally two classes of activity centre in the City of Gosnells: • Older centres in long-established residential areas; • Newer centres in new residential areas (includes planned centres). 4.3.1 Older, Established Centres Some of these activity centres are reasonably attractive and work quite well.

Figure 18: Spencer Village Centre

Figure 19: Gosnells Town Centre



However, many are in a poor state of appearance.

Figure 20: Ashburton Village, Gosnells

Many of the older centres could be improved in terms of their physical appearance and variety of functions and uses.

Figure 21: Langford Centre on a Saturday Morning



4.3.2 Newer, and Planned Centres Some of the newer centres have seemingly attempted to embrace main street urban design principles.

While these examples of newer centres represent a better outcome than centres developed previously, it is questionable whether these improvements are sufficient. No new centres have incorporated residential elements and consequently do not achieve SPP 4.2 objectives for activity centres to cater for mixed-use development.

A key consideration is to what extent a planning strategy should stipulate and development control should be exercised to achieve the objectives of SPP 4.2.

Figure 22: Southern River Centre, Ranford Road

Figure 23: Amherst Centre, Canning Vale/Southern River



4.4 Other Commercial Areas Extensive land has been developed in the City in recent times for mixed business purposes, reflecting a broader trend for an expansion of bulky goods retailing. Much of this growth has been concentrated in and around William Street, Beckenham and Nicholson Road, Canning Vale. There will be future demand for more of this form of development. Vacant and relatively available land for this form of development appears to be in relatively short supply, though provision is being made for mixed business development in the Maddington town centre and along Southern River Road and Ranford Road in Southern River.



5. RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT SPP 4.2 requires that a Retail Needs Assessment (RNA) be completed as part of the preparation of local planning strategies, and be consistent with the activity centre hierarchy. The RNA completed for the ACPS comprised two phases: • An overall calculation of the indicative future retail floorspace demand for the City as a whole

based on household income and income-related retail spending patterns; • A detailed centres model to identify an optimal way of distributing the future retail floorspace

demand across the activity centres. Generic retail spend (GRS) modelling has been completed and has informed the establishment of a floorspace distribution model.

5.1 Summary of Generic Retail Spend Modelling GRS Modelling assesses the overall retail floorspace requirements for the households and population in the City of Gosnells based on household retail expenditure. A description of the GRS Model, and the output sheets detailing the results are presented in Appendix B to this report. The following table summarises these results (Figure 24). Figure 24 presents summaries of results for three development scenarios: 1. 2031 – WAPC projections of households and population. (Note: 2026 estimated population

already achieved) 2. 2031 – Forecast id projections of households and population. 3. 2031 – Directions 2031 preferred outcome (additional 5900 households over Scenario 1. Item 2006 2031-WAPC 2031-ID DIR2031 % Incr (2006)

With DIR 2031 Households Population

35,270 95,680

53,045 116,700

52,292 136,421

58,945 129,680

67% 36%

Shop- Type m2 Showroom- Type m2 Total Retail m2

112,522 93,105 205,627

169,229 140,028 309,257

166,827 138,040 304,867

188,052 155,602 343,654

67% 67% 67%

Shop- Type m2/ Capita 1.18 1.45 1.22 1.45 Showroom- Type m2/ Capita

0.97 1.2 1.01 1.2

Total Retail m2/ Capita 2.15 2.65 2.23 2.65 Shop- Type m2/ Household 3.19 3.19 3.19 3.19 Showroom- Type m2/ Household

2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64

Total Retail m2/ Household 5.83 5.83 5.83 5.83

Existing Situation (estimation) Shop/ Retail 168,879 Other Retail 57,917 Total Retail m2 226,796 Shop Retail m2/capita 1.77 Estimates only - Other Retail m2/capita 0.61 due to categorisation Total Retail m2/capita 2.37 differences and Shop Retail m2/household 4.79 catchment area overlap Other Retail m2/household 1.64 Total Retail m2/ household 6.43

Figure 24: GRS Modelling- Summary of Results



For the purposes of this modelling, “households” and “dwelling units” are considered to be the same. In Figure 24, the 2006 “Households” figure is in fact Total Dwelling Units to enable direct comparisons with the longer term projections. Points to note from Figure 24 include: • Based on the WAPC projections, between 2006 and 2031 demand for an additional

56,700m2 of Shop-type floorspace and 46,900m2 of showroom-type floorspace will be generated by population and household growth in the City of Gosnells.

• Based on the Forecast id projections, the additional future demand is reduced slightly to

54,300m2 of Shop-type floorspace and 44,900m2 of showroom-type floorspace. • If the Directions 2031 connected-city objectives are met within the City, the additional

demand for shop-type floorspace increases to 75,500m2, while additional showroom-type floorspace demand increases to 62,500m2.

• The Directions 2031 demand scenario represents a 67% increase in both types of retail

floorspace, which is in line with the percentage increase in the number of dwellings/ households.

The main purpose of the GRS modelling is to obtain insight into the overall extent of future population/household-driven demand for retail floorspace. It is important to note that this demand does not necessarily represent the amount of floorspace that will need to be developed within the City of Gosnells itself. There is an overlap in catchment area that the detailed modelling will account for; and as indicated in Figure 24, the existing total retail supply exceeds the GRS model's calculated demand for 2006. This would also be partly due to catchment area overlap, but would also be contributed to by below-average performance floorspace by some of the centres. 5.2 Retail Needs Assessment Overview According to SPP 4.2, a Retail Needs Assessment (RNA) is an assessment of projected retail needs of communities in a local government area and its surrounds. They are required in order that local planning strategies can show the estimated retail need and indicative distribution of floorspace across activity centres in the local government area, consistent with the activity centre hierarchy. RNAs are also intended to guide district and activity centre structure plans. In the overall planning of the City of Gosnells, the RNA is intended to assist in the identification of sufficient land for activity centres in appropriate locations throughout the City to ensure that the shopping and other commercial/ community needs of the population can be conveniently satisfied to the maximum practicable extent. It is important to note that the retail needs and floorspace potential estimated through the RNA are not intended to become rigid floorspace “caps” on each centre to be implemented through development control and policy. Development of most urban areas in the City is more or less "complete" and a pattern of activity centres has already been established to serve the resident population. In many well-established older areas, however, new residential and commercial redevelopment opportunities have arisen, and continue to arise, which have the potential to further increase the population of these areas, and thus retail demand, over time. The role of the RNA is also to assess the extent of this future demand and the opportunities it might present.



5.3 Gravity Model The main tool used for the purposes of the RNA is a mathematical retail gravity model. A detailed description of the model in provided in the Appendix C. The main purpose of the modelling is to quantify the extent of existing and future retail needs and investigate ways in which they could potentially be satisfied. The model is a tool to assist in defining and confirming an appropriate activity centres hierarchy and demonstrating that retail needs can potentially be satisfied from within the various levels of the hierarchy that has been defined. The modelling also serves as a guide for the market in relation to the retail floorspace development potential of individual centres. As stated above it is, however, not intended that the detailed results of the modelling (that is, centre by centre floorspace estimates) themselves be implemented as firm policy. There are in fact many different but satisfactory ways that the hierarchy of centres could be developed in a detailed sense. The results of the current modelling presented in this section demonstrate just one of these ways. 5.4 Study Area The study area has two parts: a primary area and a frame area. The primary area is the City of Gosnells. Within this area the results of the modelling are considered to be accurate and reliable enough to form the basis of a RNA. The frame area comprises the local government areas listed below, which include those which surround the City of Gosnells, and therefore have most influence on the trading potential of the City's activity centres. The frame area also contains some LGA's and individual centres that are not directly adjacent to the City of Gosnells, but are nevertheless considered to be of some significance, including the Perth Central Business District. The frame area is included to ensure that the model's results for the primary area are accurate. However, results for centres within the frame area are not themselves considered accurate, particularly near its periphery. The LGA's included within the Frame Area are: • Armadale • Belmont • Canning • Cockburn • East Fremantle • Fremantle • Kalamunda • Melville • South Perth • Victoria Park



The extent of the study area covered by the model is shown in Figure 25.

Figure 25: Activity Centres Model Primary (Gosnells LGA) and Frame Study Areas

5.5 Modelling Process The mathematical activity centres model independently and simultaneously calculates the economic performance of all Shop/Retail floorspace and Other Retail floorspace within all commercial and industrial complexes in the Study Area. In addition to the existing complexes, the model includes the location of known future (planned) activity centres, and their planned status in the centres hierarchy. In the base year (in this case 2011) existing retail floorspace data obtained from the Department of Planning and the City of Gosnells has been used in the model, and the existing performance level for each existing activity centre has been calculated. These performance levels form a general benchmark, or basis for comparison with the equivalent calculations for future years, which are modelled on the five-yearly Census cycle through to 2031. In future years, population growth will obviously require additional retail floorspace to be provided in future planned centres and, in many cases, existing centres. The modelling project involved an iterative process of, for each five-yearly period, calculating the amount of retail floorspace required in each activity centre, then adjusting the various quantities until, for the year being modelled, a



reasonable balance had been found between increasing retail floorspace in the centres that could support it, whilst still ensuring that the performance of competing centres, particularly existing centres with a below-average performance, was not unreasonably impacted upon. While the data in the model is as accurate and up-to-date as possible, and the results of the modelling are considered to represent a reasonable estimate of the potential economic performance of each centre, the results do not purport to represent the actual performance of each centre. This is because other factors outside the model can and do have a very large bearing on the economic performance of an activity centre. A good example of this point is the Langford Village shopping centre. The model results indicate that this centre has a reasonably good trade area potential, yet the centre in fact under-performs significantly. The design of the centre is likely to be a significant reason why this is the case. During the modelling process, consideration was also given to the identification of true activity centres suitable for planning and promotion as such in the future. Not all existing commercial and industrial complexes are suitable for specific planning and promotion as activity centres in the future. For example, several existing commercial complexes are relatively isolated and contain minimal or no Shop/Retail floorspace. For this reason, although all complexes have been included in the main modelling process, and are listed on the detailed model output sheets in Appendix 3, only those considered to have some reasonable prospect of being planned and promoted as activity centres into the future have been illustrated on the Strategy Map and listed in the summary table in Figure 26. 5.6 Summary of Results The full set of output summary sheets is presented in Appendix 3. The results of the modelling in terms of retail floorspace estimated for each activity centre, are summarised in Table 1. It should be noted that, even though the main policy focus of the RNA is on Shop/ Retail floorspace, Other Retail floorspace has also been modelled for general planning purposes and as a guide. The key model results are presented in the following subsections. 5.6.1 Maddington The modelling indicates that Maddington, as the largest and most important centre in the City, has the potential to expand significantly over time to a maximum of 60,000m2 of Shop/Retail floorspace. This potential is very useful as it represents an economic incentive for continued incremental improvement of the centre, without adversely impacting on the continued viability of the Gosnells Town Centre, and warrants the continued action of the City to press on with its urban regeneration initiatives for the area. 5.6.2 Gosnells Town Centre The performance of the Gosnells Town Centre is somewhat below average, though still viable. The performance of Gosnells will improve over time, but it does not reach the point where significant expansion is indicated by the modelling. Whilst there is some scope to expand Gosnells somewhat, by not expanding Maddington quite so much, the scope for this trade-off is limited, with the model clearly indicating that, of the two centres, Maddington should be the main focus of expansion. It should be noted that some further expansion of the Gosnells Town Centre is not precluded by the ACPS should a developer wish to take it on; it is just not strongly indicated by the modelling.



Figure 26: Summary of Model Results – Future Retail Needs

ID CENTRE Shop/ Retail Other Retail 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 1 Maddington 31616 40000 50000 60000 60000 8000 10000 12000 12000 12000 2 Forest Lakes 12000 16000 16000 16000 16000 100 1000 1000 1000 1000 3 Thornlie Square 11360 11360 11360 11360 11360 330 330 330 330 330 4 Gosnells Town 18868 18868 18868 18868 18868 4700 4700 4700 4700 4700 5 Southern River 0 4500 12000 16000 25000 0 200 200 500 800 Total District 42228 50728 58228 62228 71228 5130 6230 6230 6530 6830 6 Corfield SC 1640 1640 1640 1640 1640 0 0 0 0 0 7 Ashburton Village 1810 1810 1810 1810 1810 0 0 0 0 0 8 Langford Village 2052 2052 2052 2052 2052 0 0 0 0 0 9 Westfield Street 4531 4531 4531 4531 4531 0 0 0 0 0 10 Spencer Village 2497 2497 2497 2497 2497 0 0 0 0 0 11 Kenwick Village 1551 1551 1551 1551 1551 0 0 0 0 0 12 Beckenham SC 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 100 100 100 100 100 13 Huntingdale Forum 2320 2320 2320 2320 2320 0 0 0 0 0 14 Ranford SC 3134 4500 4500 4500 4500 0 0 0 0 0 15 Southern River (L) 6200 6200 6200 6200 6200 2540 2540 2540 2540 2540 16 Amherst Village (L) 8435 10500 12500 12500 12500 800 800 800 800 800 17 DV-01 0 0 3500 7000 7000 0 0 500 1000 1000 18 SR-08 (L) 0 4500 7000 7000 7000 0 0 1000 1000 1000 Total Neighbourhood 35670 43601 51601 55101 55101 2640 3440 4940 5440 5440 22 Gosnells Medical 0 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 23 Martindale 300 300 300 300 300 0 0 0 0 0 24 Huntingdale SC 776 780 780 780 780 280 280 280 280 280 25 Royal Street 340 340 340 340 340 1010 1010 1010 1010 1010 26 W Gosnells 373 380 380 380 380 0 0 0 0 0 27 Warton Road 520 520 520 520 520 0 0 0 0 0 29 Furley Road 210 210 210 210 210 80 80 80 80 80 30 Nicholson & Amherst

St 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

31 Fraser/ Comrie 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 32 Fraser/ Amherst 0 500 500 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 33 Fraser/ Gateway 0 500 500 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 34 Campbell/ Birnam 380 380 380 380 380 0 0 0 0 0 35 35 DV-02 0 0 500 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 36 45 Dorothy Street 250 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 0

37 SR-07 Relocated 0 0 1200 1200 1200 0 0 0 0 500 38 SR-10 0 0 0 500 500 0 0 0 0 0

39 SR- 11 0 0 0 500 500 0 0 0 0 0

40 SR-13 0 0 500 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 41 SR-15 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 0 0 0 0 42 223 Yale Road 0 250 250 250 250 200 200 200 200 200 Total Local 3302 5560 7760 9760 10060 1720 1720 1720 1720 2220 47 Albany

Highway/William 40476 40480 40480 40480 40480 16305 16310 16310 16310 16310

48 Nicholson/ Spencer 0 0 0 0 0 710 710 710 710 710 49 Nicholson/ Ranford 4006 4010 4010 4010 4010 611 700 700 700 700

50 Nicholson/ Garden 0 500 500 500 500 0 2500 5000 5000 5000 51 Nicholson Road 0 0 0 0 0 415 420 420 420 420

52 Canine Assoc. Site 0 0 0 0 0 0 5000 10000 15000 15000 54 Beckenham SC 9230 9230 9230 9230 9230 14355 14355 14355 14355 14355 55 Maddington 5670 5670 5670 5670 5670 40658 40658 40658 40658 40658 56 Willow Pond 5466 5470 5470 5470 5470 2611 2620 2620 2620 2620 58 Furley Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2500 5000 10000

59 Passmore Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5000 7500 10000 Total MixedBusiness/

Industrial 64848 65360 65360 65360 65360 75665 83273 98273 108273 115773

Grand Total 177664 205249 232949 252449 261749 93155 104663 123163 133963 142263



5.6.3 Forest Lakes Forest Lakes is modelled to perform very well. Modelling indicates that its Shop/Retail floorspace could increase to 16,000m2 any time from 2011. Forest Lakes has the potential to expand even further in terms of its own economic performance, but such further expansion of this centre beyond 16,000m2 would have an adverse impact on other competing centres, particularly Thornlie Square, so expansion of Forest Lakes beyond 16,000m2 should not occur in the absence of a Retail Sustainability Assessment (RSA). 5.6.4 Thornlie Square The modelling estimates that Thornlie Square is and will remain an average performer, with no future significant expansion being indicated. 5.6.5 The Neighbourhood Centres The various old and new neighbourhood centres are a mixed bag in terms of potential performance, but most seem to have the trade area potential to perform at viable levels. There are a considerable number of activity centres that have been classified as "neighbourhood" centres in the ACPS, which have to date been regarded only as "local" centres by the City. This change has been driven by two main considerations: • SPP 4.2 now states that a local centre is "any centre with a Shop/ Retail floorspace under

1,500m2". This is quite clear and it is therefore reasonable to assume that any activity centre with Shop/ Retail floorspace in excess of 1,500m2 is something other than a local centre, that is, a neighbourhood centre or above.

• There are many centres within the City, with floorspace less than 1,500m2, that can still serve

the role of local centre. Until now, however, there have been considerably fewer centres able to be considered and planned as neighbourhood centres. It would, however, be advantageous to have more neighbourhood centres in the City of Gosnells in the future.

By classifying the centres above 1,500 m2 as neighbourhood centres, the number of such centres gets closer to what the Gosnells population could reasonably support in the longer term. Furthermore, the expansion potential of activity centres designated as neighbourhood centres increases in terms of market-based opportunity. Even though there is insufficient trade area potential for the expansion of all such centres, by providing "supply" led opportunities for the expansion of a significant number of centres, there is a greater likelihood that developers will identify genuine opportunities for such expansion. 5.6.6 The Local Centres In the City, this same situation applies to local centres, as there is a considerable number of them with Shop/Retail floorspace well below the local centre upper threshold of 1,500m2. While some existing local centres perform reasonably well, there is very little expansion potential for existing local centres indicated by the modelling. However, this is not the case for some of the future local centres.



5.6.7 Mixed Business/Light Industrial Areas In the modelling, Shop/Retail floorspace has not been expanded in the existing areas because the main intention should be to make the commercial activity centres, rather than mixed business/ industrial areas, the main focus for Shop/Retail floorspace. Nor has Shop/Retail floorspace been assumed in the proposed new mixed business areas of the Canine Association Site (52), or the future business park/light industrial areas (58 and 59) in Southern River. There is clearly good additional potential for mixed business development (for the establishment of Other Retail floorspace) in the Southern River area, and this has been accounted for in the planning and the modelling. However, the extent of this potential will to some extent be kept in check by the very large mixed business area planned for the nearby Forrestdale Business Park in the City of Armadale.



6. STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS Specific recommendations to achieve the objectives set out in the ACPS are set out below. 6.1 The Nature of Strategy Strategies are variously defined. Dictionary definitions include:

'Skilful management in getting the better of an adversary or attaining an end'

'A plan, method, or series of manoeuvres or stratagems for obtaining a specific goal or result: a strategy for getting ahead in the world.'

6.2 The Strategy Approach The following quote has been relevant in drafting strategy recommendations:

“However high the level of ambition entertained it is wise to remember that the sheer complexity of a town, in terms not only of its physical structure but also of its social groupings and activities, commercial, industrial and administrative complexes, is so great that accurate detailed prediction of its needs is hardly possible. The Planner must be prepared either to leave many things open and undecided or else frequently to change his plan.” (Professor Lewis Keeble)

Previous commercial strategies developed in Western Australia have tended to be the opposite of the above quote in that they have not left things open and undecided and been accompanied by a general reluctance to change the plan. This approach has not proved satisfactory and has often resulted in worthwhile development proposals being refused or the strategy being undermined and rendered obsolescent too early, as unforeseen development proposals are in fact approved, albeit inconsistently. There are numerous potentially satisfactory future outcomes for development of activity centres in the City of Gosnells (and virtually everywhere else). Rather than preparing and seeking to implement a rigid plan, this strategy is more about creating a clear but flexible planning framework based on the activity centres hierarchy, which remains the centrepiece of SPP 4.2. The framework has within it a lot of room to move, so in order to ensure satisfactory outcomes, ongoing management must embrace a principles-based readiness to respond positively to unexpected opportunities and unforeseen situations. The adoption of a principles-based approach within a more flexible planning framework is necessary to ensure that the results on the ground are satisfactory. Principles relating to land use relationships and compatibility, good urban design, and what contributes most to urban accessibility and convenience, efficiency and sustainability are generally well-accepted. Accordingly, there is no reason why, within a generalised framework, hitherto unplanned development proposals cannot simply be evaluated on their merits applying these basic principles.



This does not mean that the strategy should be ill-defined or weak. On the contrary, it is intended to provide clear intent and guidance to all stakeholders. It can be anticipated that in many cases, actual development will be straightforward in accordance with the concepts expressed in the strategy. However, the difference to normal practice will be that, within the framework, considering alternative proposals to those expressed in the strategy will be regarded as a valid part of on-going strategy implementation, rather than something at odds with the strategy, and thus needing to be resisted. As stated above, there is a lot of room to move within the proposed framework, but this justifies the framework having fairly strong boundaries. Maintenance of a hierarchy of centres does certainly require some careful monitoring and control. For this reason, where development proposals do seek to go beyond the generous boundaries established by the framework, there will then be a need for proposals to be fully justified, in most cases by a Retail Sustainability Assessment (RSA). The recommended key approach in the ACPS is to adopt a planning principles-based but otherwise open-minded attitude towards managing growth and change in activity centres by acknowledging inevitable uncertainty, while positively seeking to create activity centre development opportunities and satisfactory outcomes.

6.3 Strategy Components The ACPS comprises the following components: • Background (Objectives, Planning Context, Population - current and future, Centres network -

current and future) - Sections 1.0 to 4.0 • Retail Needs Assessment (Modelling) - Section 5.0 • Strategy Map and Actions - Section 6.0 6.4 Strategy Actions In light of the background to the Strategy and the completed Retail Needs Assessment, the following set of actions is recommended. 6.4.1. Two Classes of Centre As previously indicated, in the City there is a reasonably clear distinction that can be drawn between older, well-established centres in older suburbs; and newer, or planned but not yet developed centres in newer and still developing suburbs. This strategy seeks to adopt a different approach to the planning and development of each of these main categories of centre. Older Centres With a few exceptions, these centres appear to under-perform to varying degrees and look shabby and in need of redevelopment or refurbishment. The centres modelling indicates, however, that most of the older/ well-established centres do have reasonable trade area potential and therefore could perform much better than they currently appear to do if they were modernised and made more attractive.



In some of the larger centres (particularly, Maddington and Gosnells town centres) incremental improvements are already occurring based on earlier planning, design studies and initiatives. The general strategic approach in relation to older, well-established centres should be to encourage and facilitate any development at all which would result in some improvement to a centre, even though it may not represent an "ideal" outcome. Whilst high standards of urban design and development should always be encouraged and preferred over more "ordinary" development, this strategy envisages specifically foregoing higher standards, if necessary, in order to facilitate some physical and/ or social improvement over an existing situation. Maddington, Thornlie and Gosnells Town Centre While these substantial large older centres should still be subject to this more flexible approach, they nevertheless do fall within a slightly different sub-category of older, well-established centre due to their size, relative importance and SPP 4.2 requirements. Furthermore, Maddington has a significant amount of future growth potential and, whilst needing to maintain a positive and flexible attitude to facilitating this expansion, there is also a need to ensure that any future significant development/ redevelopment of Maddington, or part thereof, does not repeat the planning mistakes of the past. Development/redevelopment of all district level and above centres (old or not) will need to accord with the requirements of SPP 4.2, particularly in relation to the preparation of activity centre structure plans prior to any major development (Clause 6.4) and the "mix of land uses" requirement (Table 3). Maddington, Thornlie and Gosnells centres will require more planning activity and interaction with development proponents prior to development/redevelopment than would be the case with most of the neighbourhood/ local centres falling within this category. Newer and Planned Centres Centres modelling indicates that the future trade area potential for all relatively new and currently planned future Centres (district, neighbourhood and local) is very good. As noted earlier, however, the population projections for the Southern River area are fairly optimistic in terms of timing. Whilst the "ultimate" centre potential in this area is not in doubt, and is assumed for the purposes of the modelling to be 2031, the appropriate timing of centre development will depend on the rate of population growth actually experienced. Ultimate full development of Southern River may well occur beyond 2031. The general strategy for implementing development of these centres is to liaise as closely as possible with developers and other key stakeholders during the centre planning and design process, and exercise development control powers to whatever extent may be necessary to ensure that new centre development, and incremental future growth of the centres in subsequent stages, is of the highest possible standard in terms of triple-bottom-line sustainability and state-of-the-art urban design principles. This could well require activity centre plans, even for neighbourhood centres. While SPP 4.2 does not require such plans, Table 6 recognises that “Local Government may require a detailed area plan” for neighbourhood centres.



It is actually the need and opportunity to achieve significantly improved outcomes in new centres that is the primary reason for identifying the two different strategic approaches to centre development. While a flexible, pragmatic, responsive approach can reasonably be adopted to development proposals in the older centres to help get much needed improvements done; a far more principled, outcomes-focussed approach is recommended for the new centres. This approach will have long term benefits to the City as the serious mistakes of the past (which are clearly reflected in the appearance and performance of many of the older centres) are avoided, thus minimising the likelihood of future problems of a similar nature. 6.4.2 Retail Hierarchy The retail hierarchy and centres within each level of the hierarchy are illustrated on the Strategy Map (Figure 27). Centres are numbered and listed on the Strategy Map using the reference numbers in the first column of the model output and summary sheets. Whilst in theory there are no retail floorspace caps applicable to any centre in the City, the maintenance of a retail hierarchy, which is still the centrepiece of SPP 4.2, does in fact require some effective mechanism to control centre size. Maintenance of a retail hierarchy is important to ensure that appropriate levels of retail and other community services are conveniently provided, and in order to optimise the return on public investment in infrastructure, particularly transport infrastructure. The retail hierarchy is as follows: • Secondary Regional Centre (Maddington) • District Centres (Thornlie, Forest Lakes, Gosnells) • Large Neighbourhood Centres (Amherst, Southern River) • Neighbourhood Centres • Local Centres • Other Centres/ Mixed Business/ Industrial Areas This strategy requires that the following criteria for controlling the size of centres at the various levels within the defined retail hierarchy should apply. The criteria are, for the most part, very generous and provide a lot of room within which the market can manoeuvre to deliver floorspace in response to commercial market demand, while still ensuring the hierarchy of centres is maintained. Indeed, it is fully anticipated that most centres will not be developed to the extent potentially permitted by this strategy. Should a developer wish to develop a centre larger than specified by the criteria, then a persuasive RSA will be required prior to any such consideration by the Council. The RNA modelling carried out for this strategy, together with the hierarchy criteria, are therefore intended to serve as a RSA for all retail floorspace increases that either accord with the modelling, or the following controlling criteria. Thus, if a developer wishes to increase a centre to a size identified in the modelling, or within the thresholds specified by the criteria, then a RSA will not be required. The criteria for centres at each level in the hierarchy is as follows in sections 6.4.2.1 to 6.4.2.6. All floorspace figures are for Shop/Retail NLA unless otherwise specified. Where relevant, bracketed numbers are the centre reference numbers on the model output sheets and Strategy Map.



Figure 27 - The Strategy Map



6.4.2.1 Regional Centre Maddington Secondary Centre (1) No upper retail floorspace limit, but a RSA required for major development/s that would result in Shop/ Retail floorspace exceeding 60,000m2. SPP 4.2 centre plan and mix of land use requirements apply. 6.4.2.2 District Centres Gosnells Town Centre (4) No upper retail floorspace limit, but SPP 4.2 centre plan/ major development and mix of land use requirements apply to all significant increases in Shop/ Retail floorspace. Thornlie Square (3) Maximum 16,000m2 without a RSA. SPP 4.2 centre plan and mix of land use requirements apply. Forest Lakes (2) Maximum 16,000m2 without a RSA. SPP 4.2 centre plan and mix of land use requirements apply. Southern River (5) Maximum 25,000 m2 without a RSA. SPP 4.2 centre plan and mix of land use requirements apply. Any proposal to significantly change the geographic location of this centre from that indicated on the strategy map must be the subject of a RSA, regardless of the floorspace proposed. 6.4.3 Large Neighbourhood Centres Amherst Village (16) Absolute maximum 12,500m2. No further expansion permitted, with a RSA or not. This is because a RSA has already been prepared to support an increase of the centre to this extent. Detailed Area Plan or Centre Plan required prior to any further expansion of centre beyond current actual size. Southern River (15) Maximum 7,000m2 without a RSA. SR-08 (18) Maximum 7,000m2 without a RSA. Detailed Area Plan or Centre Plan required prior to any centre development. DV-01 (17) Maximum 7,000m2 without a RSA. Detailed Area Plan or Centre Plan required prior to any centre development.



Mix of land use requirements do not apply to neighbourhood centres, but local offices, community services, and adjacent or integrated higher density residential development should be encouraged wherever practicable. Subject to detailed structure planning, the location of centre DV-01 (17) is flexible. Furthermore, it could be split into two smaller neighbourhood centres if desired. 6.4.4 Neighbourhood Centres All to be a maximum of 4,500m2 without a RSA. Mix of land use requirements do not apply to neighbourhood centres, but local offices, community services, and adjacent or integrated higher density residential development should be encouraged wherever practicable. 6.4.5 Local centres All to be a maximum 1,500m2. Mix of land use requirements do not apply to local centres. Subject to detailed structure planning, the exact location of as yet undeveloped local centres is flexible. 6.4.6 Other Centres/Mixed Business/Industrial Areas No or very limited additional Shop/Retail floorspace should be allowed. No limit to other Retail and general service commercial floorspace. It should be noted that, in the City of Gosnells, the mixed business/ industrial areas play a major role, not only in providing a large variety of Shop/Retail and Other Retail activities within some significantly large precincts, but in providing a considerable amount of employment. These areas help to boost the level of employment self-sufficiency and self-containment. Together with the future planned areas (largely in Southern River), plus the presence of some additional very large areas just outside the City's boundaries (existing Canning Vale to the west and the future Forrestdale Business Park to the south), further commercial/non-retail development will improve employment self-sufficiency.


ACTIVITY CENTRES PLANNING STRATEGY (DRAFT) · Activity Centres Planning Strategy (Draft) 4 Figure...

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