Science in the Metropolitan Community: Looking Back to Go Forward in the Era of Common Core

Standards

Kansas City, MissouriOctober 5, 2011

William F. Tate

Acknowledgements

• Mark Hogrebe• Brian Cohen• Research Support from the National Science

Foundation

Matrix Addition

• If A, B, and C are m x n matrices and α, β are scalars, then we can form various other m x n matrices, such as….

• Provide a couple of examples

Looking Back

Guiding Questions

1. What configurations of political capacity, policies, programs, and professionals result in accelerating educational attainment for traditionally underserved students?

2. How aligned are a region’s stated political and economic goals and the human resource development strategy?

Guiding Questions

• What are the costs and benefits associated with success?

A Production ModelSource: Tate, Forthcoming

Courses Taken

1998Graduates

1994Graduates

1990Graduates

1982Graduates

AlgebraGeometryAlgebra IIAnalysisCalculus

63.5672.4652.36 12.73 5.46

64.9958.13 43.909.723.77

64.5955.7840.61 6.112.73

43.0529.26 24.102.271.34

Percentage of black graduates earning indicated credits in mathematics by selected years

Source: NCES, 2001

Percentage of black graduates earning indicated credits in science by selected years

Source: NCES, 2001

Courses Taken

1998Graduates

1994Graduates

1990Graduates

1982Graduates

BiologyBiology/ChemBiology/Chem/Physics

93.2252.0315.64

91.7842.32 13.34

91.0539.2311.97

72.9320.014.89

Number of earned bachelor’s degrees in science and engineering by Blacks, non-Hispanic: 1991,1995, 2000, 2003, & 2006

Field 91 95 00 03 06

Science 17,778 24,683 30,400 33,637 36,223

Engineering 2,229 2,845 3,062 3,074 3,186

Total 19,987(5.6)

27,528(6.9)

33,462(8.0)

36,711(8.3)

39,409(8.3)

Source: NSF, Science and Engineering Degrees by Race/Ethnicity, 1991-2000 & 1997-2006

Puzzle

• The NAEP Long-Term Trend Assessment’s Average Mathematics Scale Scores for Blacks at Age 17 in the 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2008 test administrations are relatively unchanged.

• What do the transcript analysis, degree attainment, and NAEP Trend studies suggest about system production for African Americans? Other Demographic Groups?

Direct Threat to STEM EducationEmpty-Seat Problem

• According to Arizona Department of

Education, nearly 3,800 black Arizonians were classified as school dropouts in the three academic years beginning in 2005.

Freshman On-Track Rate Over Time for CPS Students

Ninth-Grade Year Number of Students* CPS On-Track

• 2001-02 26,013 15,207 (58%)• 2002-03 25,853 16,041 (62%)• 2003-04 27,975 15,851 (57%)• 2004-05 27,709 16,345 (59%)• 2005-06 28,269 16,385 (58%)• 2006-07 27,550 15,719 (57%)• 2007-08 25,537 15,193 (59%)• 2008-09 26,013 16,636 (64%)* This number excludes those students who left CPS, transferred to a charter school,or started school in the spring.

Drop-out Correlates

• 80 percent or lower attendance in eighth grade (75% chance or better)

• Failing grade in math and/or English (75% chance or better)

• Math performance in sixth grade related to on-time high school graduation

• Adolescent residential and school mobility is linked to increased risk of dropping out.

Higher standards, more dropouts? Evidence within and across time

• This study investigates whether state course graduation requirements (CGRs) affect high school dropout decisions.

• It uses aggregate data on dropout rates, individual data on dropout decisions from two time periods, and aggregate data on high school (attrition) completion rates over fifteen years. The results strongly suggest that state mandated minimum

• course requirements cause students to drop out of high school.

• The estimated effects imply that a standard deviation increase in CGRs would cause between 26,000 and 65,000 more individuals to drop out of school.

• These figures constitute an increase in the population of dropouts in 1990 of 3.0 to 7.4 percent.

Lillard and Decicca, 2001, Economics of Education Review

Drop-out Correlates

• Family structure• Family stress (death, divorce, family mobility)• Family socioeconomic status• Retention at a grade• Perception that adults don’t care• Failure to develop sufficient comfort in school• CUMUMALATIVE EFFECT OF MANY FACTORS

Educational Attainment and Societal Benefit

• High school graduates earn higher incomes, translating into more state, local, and federal tax revenues. This translates into a fiscal gain with each new high graduate—both by the production of greater public revenue and reduction of public costs.

Source: Levin, 2009

Educational Attainment and Societal Benefit

• For example, if the California high school dropout rate for one year was reduced by 30%, the total benefit to state and local governments is an estimated $1.9 billion, and social gains would be roughly $13.9 billion, which is 0.9% of the Gross State Product in California.

Source: California Dropout Research Project

Educational Attainment and Societal Benefit

• Benefits per high school graduate range from $53,000 (fiscal benefits to state and localgovernment) to $392,000 (total economic benefits to California).

Source: California Dropout Research Project

Engineering Forward

Achievement Gains from Pre-K

CPC Tulsa OK NJ Head StartLanguage na na .28 .32 .09 (.13)

Math .33 .36 .34 .30 .12 (.18)

Literacy na .99 .42 .44 .25 (.34)

Effects in standard deviations. Figures in parentheses are adjusted for noncompliance.Sources: CPC (27), Tulsa (22), OK (21), NJ (average of two estimates 21, 23), HS (14) CPC: Child Parent Centers, Chicago

Reference: Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Early Education Interventions on Cognitive and Social Development, Teachers College Record Volume 112 Number 3, 2010, p. 579-620

Acknowledgement to Professor W. Steven Barnett, Rutgers University and the National Research Council

AN OPPORTUNITY-PROPENSITY MODEL

A SCHOOL COMPOSITION-OPPORTUNITY MODEL

A SCHOOL COMPOSITION-OPPORTUNITY MODEL

Economic Reasons for Common Core

• “Large differences in student proficiency status between states can have a substantial impact on the perceived educational quality in a region divided by state lines. These reported differences have significant influence on decision-makers, educational policies, and business investment and development.”

Economic Reasons for Common Core

• “Or, a region that appears divided in its educational systems and student proficiency, may be less attractive to those looking to make investments in the community. Families with school age children may choose not to locate in an area where schools are reported as producing low percentages of proficient students in core subject areas.”

•

Political Fragmentation in 25 Largest Metropolitan Areas: The Top Four

Metro Area Counties Municipalities Total Local Governments

Local Governments per 100,000 Residents

Pittsburgh 6 412 418 17.7

Minneapolis-St. Paul

13 331 344 12.3

St. Louis 12 300 312 12.2

Cincinnati 13 222 235 12.2

Amendment 2: STEM Cell InitiativeOne new section is adopted by adding one new section to be known as section 38(d)

of Article III to read as follows:Section 38(d). 1. This section shall be known as the “ Missouri Stem Cell Research and

Cures Initiative.” 2. To ensure that Missouri patients have access to stem cell therapies and cures, that

Missouri researchers can conduct stem cell research in the state, and that all such research is conducted safely and ethically, any stem cell research permitted under federal law may be conducted in Missouri, and any stem cell therapies and cures permitted under federal law may be provided to patients in Missouri, subject to the requirements of federal law and only the following additional limitations and requirements:

(1) No person may clone or attempt to clone a human being. (2) No human blastocyst may be produced by fertilization solely for the purpose of

stem cell research. (3) No stem cells may be taken from a human blastocyst more than fourteen days

after cell division begins; provided, however, that time during which a blastocyst is frozen does not count against the fourteen-day limit.

Amendment 2: STEM Cell Initiative (continued)

(4) No person may, for valuable consideration, purchase or sell human blastocysts or eggs for stem cell research or stem cell therapies and cures.

(5) Human blastocysts and eggs obtained for stem cell research or stem cell therapies and cures must have been donated with voluntary and informed consent, documented in writing.

(6) Human embryonic stem cell research may be conducted only by persons that, within 180 days of the effective date of this section or otherwise prior to commencement of such research, whichever is later, have

(a) provided oversight responsibility and approval authority for such research to an embryonic stem cell research oversight committee whose membership includes representatives of the public and medical and scientific experts;

(b) adopted ethical standards for such research that comply with the requirements of this section; and

(c) obtained a determination from an Institutional Review Board that the research complies with all applicable federal statutes and regulations that the Institutional Review Board is responsible for administering.

A Production ModelSource: Tate, Forthcoming