Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

9
Daily Commodity Report as on Monday, December 29, 2014 Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Transcript of Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

Page 1: Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

Daily Commodity Report as on Monday, December 29, 2014

Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Page 2: Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

Open High Low Close % Cng OI

Gold 26733 27109 26733 27073 1.84 7273Silver 36655 37644 36655 37315 2.39 8677

Alum. 117.4 117.9 116.85 117 -0.21 2385Copper 404.6 406.35 399.25 400.45 -0.93 12510Lead 118.1 118.8 117.4 117.6 -0.42 2393Nickel 965.9 969.4 960.6 965.4 0.45 5066Zinc 137.35 137.8 136.85 137.15 -0.11 2837

Crude 3590 3624 3537 3547 -0.08 25784Nat. Gas 195.9 199.9 193.2 196 -0.20 12332

Chana 26733 27109 26733 27073 1.84 7273

Cardamom 925 949 923.3 941.7 2.00 1439Turmeric 8660 8932 8580 8932 3.98 26190

Jeera 14535 15115 14535 15080 3.75 6606

Wheat 1700 1724 1695 1715 1.00 2620

Soyabean 3377 3457 3377 3402 1.34 111090Ref. Oil 625.5 635.3 623.55 635.3 3.99 67715CPO 434.7 442.8 434.7 442.8 3.99 2109RMSeed 4283 4335 4276 4327 1.64 20950Menthol 732.4 739 729 733.7 0.58 9302Cotton 15770 15840 15750 15800 0.25 1433

USDINR 63.94 64.10 63.86 64.02 0.07 1038861EURINR 78.01 78.26 77.98 78.05 0.10 31324GBPINR 99.23 99.65 99.23 99.59 0.22 23186JPYINR 53.19 53.68 53.15 53.23 0.13 5080

Market Round upPrecious Metals

Gold gains boosted by short-covering after China's central bank was reported to be considering a loosening of liquidity requirements at the country's banks.

Base MetalSilver prices rose amid speculation that China will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting demand for the precious metal.

Crude oil prices seen pressure as a supply glut in the United States, trumped worries about falling production from Libya.

Natural gas prices dropped on speculation that record production will overwhelm demand for the heating fuel.

Ref soyoil prices gained as support seen after Government has raised the import tax on crude edible oils and refined oils by 5 percentage points each.Cereals

Mentha oil prices gained amid pick-up in domestic demand against tight supplies from producing belts.Oil and Oilseeds & Others

Soyabean prices rose on higher demand for the bean in global market and on supply concern for the bean in domestic market.

Energy Copper prices dropped on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates in the U.S.

Zinc remained in very tight range as the market sought direction amid speculation that China may ease liquidity to juice up the economy.Pulses

Nickel traded in the range as the LME market was remained closed on last FridaySpices

Chana prices rose on improved demand from bulk consumers and lower sowing as well as acreage.

Turmeric prices gained amid rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Currency

Jeera prices gained heavily following upsurge in demand in the spot market against restricted arrivals from producing belts.

Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2

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MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 26733 SUP-2 26596 Gold trading range for the day is 26596-27348.

HIGH 27109 SUP-1 26835 Gold gains boosted by short-covering after China's central bank was reported to be considering a loosening of liquidity requirements at the country's banks.

LOW 26733 P.P. 26972 The possibility of easier lending in China, the top consumer of many raw materials, prompted investors to cover short positions in gold.

Gold settled up 1.84% at 27073 boosted by short-covering after China's central bank was reported to be considering a loosening of liquidity requirements at the country's banks. Gold prices were buoyed throughout the dayby news reports that China, was considering a policy change to reinvigorate the economy by allowing banks to have more money available for lending and investment. The possibility of easier lending in China, the topconsumer of many raw materials, prompted investors to cover short positions in gold. Despite Friday's gains, investor sentiment toward the metal is unlikely to improve in the first few months of 2015, as markets expect theU.S. economy to show continued signs of strength that will lead the Federal Reserve to start increasing interest rates. Data showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped for the fourth straight week. Strongdata decreases gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increases expectations of an interest rate hike in the United States. According to GJEPC, the cumulative gold bar imports by the country during the initial eight monthsof the current fiscal from April ‘14 to November ‘14 jumped higher by 20.54% when compared with the corresponding eight-month period during previous fiscal year. During the similar period last fiscal, the country hadimported gold bars worth Rs 20,479.05 crores (USD 3,460.76 Million). The gold imports by the country have been rising continuously since August this year on account of improved festive season demand. Technically marketis under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 7273 while prices up 489 rupee, now Gold is getting support at 26835 and below same could see a test of 26596 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 27211, a move above could see prices testing 27348.

MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 36655 SUP-2 36216 Silver trading range for the day is 36216-38194.

CLOSE 27073 RES-1 27211 SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 0.60 tonnes i.e. 0.08% to 712.30 tonnes from 712.90 tonnes.

% CNG 1.84 RES-2 27348 BUY GOLD FEB @ 26900 SL 26750 TGT 27050-27200.MCX

HIGH 37644 SUP-1 36766 Silver prices rose amid speculation that China will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting demand for the precious metal.

LOW 36655 P.P. 37205 Prices recovered from lows as China lowered interest rates last month to spur economic growth and Japan expanded its unprecedented stimulus program.

CLOSE 37315 RES-1 37755 Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.13% i.e. 13.41 tonnes to 10268.46 tonnes from 10281.87 tonnes.

% CNG 2.39 RES-2 38194 BUY SILVER MAR @ 37100 SL 36750 TGT 37400-37650.MCX

Silver settled up 2.39% at 37315 amid speculation that China, the world’s biggest consumer, will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting demand for the precious metal as a store of value. The People’s Bank ofChina plans to temporarily waive a requirement for lenders to set aside reserves for some deposits, people with knowledge of the matter said. Prices recovered from lows as China lowered interest rates last month to spureconomic growth and Japan expanded its unprecedented stimulus program. The moves rekindled concern that global inflation could rise even as U.S. consumer costs stay below the Federal Reserve’s goal. Strong datadecreases bullion’s appeal as a safe-haven asset and increases expectations of an interest rate hike in the United States. In some upbeat economic news, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedlydeclined in the week ended December 20, a report from the Labor Department showed. A Commerce Department report showed U.S. gross domestic product to have increased much more than previously estimated in thethird quarter, reflecting notably stronger consumer spending growth. A final reading showed U.S. economy to have grown more than expected in the third quarter, with the dollar also strengthening against a basket of majorcurrencies. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it may downgrade the sovereign rating of Russia due to the rapid deterioration in monetary flexibility and the impact of the weakening economy on the financial system.Currently, Russia has 'BBB-' rating, the lowest investment grade. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.88% to settled at 8677, now Silver is getting support at 36766and below same could see a test of 36216 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37755, a move above could see prices testing 38194.

Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3

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MCX Crudeoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 3590 SUP-2 3482 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3482-3656.

HIGH 3624 SUP-1 3514 Crude oil prices seen pressure as a supply glut in the United States, trumped worries about falling production from Libya.

LOW 3537 P.P. 3569 Fighting in Libya has cut output there to 352,000 barrels a day, a state oil company spokesman said, or about half November's average.

Crude oil prices seen under pressure as a supply glut in top consumer, the United States, trumped worries about falling production from Libya. Fighting in Libya has cut output there to 352,000 barrels a day, a state oilcompany spokesman said, or about half November's average. This countered the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) report showing a big stockbuild. The fighting in Libya is starting to be more and more about a battle forthe oil resources and this will not end well. In Libya, a rocket set a storage tank at the country's biggest export terminal, Es Sider, on fire as armed factions allied to competing governments fought for control, officials fromboth sides said. The market had come under pressure from Wednesday's DOE report, which showed a 7.3 million-barrel rise in crude inventories to their highest December level on record. Crude imports by Japan, the world'sfourth-biggest oil buyer, dropped 17.3 percent in November from a year earlier to 14.68 million kilolitres (3.08 million bpd), government data showed. Also Saudi Arabia's plan to lift state spending next year, suggesting theworld's top oil exporter was confident of its ability to ride out low crude prices and sees no need for major austerity, also dragged on oil prices. Recently, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said OPEC will not reduce productioneven if non-OPEC producers decide to cut output. He even hinted that his country may increase production if any new buyers come into the picture. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain inopen interest by 4.96% to settled at 25784, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3514 and below same could see a test of 3482 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3601, a move above could see prices testing3656.

MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 404.6 SUP-2 394.9 Copper trading range for the day is 394.9-409.1.

CLOSE 3547 RES-1 3601 Crude imports by Japan, dropped 17.3 percent in November from a year earlier to 3.08 million bpd, government data showed.

% CNG -0.08 RES-2 3656 BUY CRUDE OIL JAN @ 3520 SL 3460 TGT 3560-3620.MCX

HIGH 406.4 SUP-1 397.7 Copper prices dropped on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates in the U.S.

LOW 399.3 P.P. 402.0 Prices were supported by reports that Beijing is moving to ease liquidity inside banks to help the economy.

CLOSE 400.5 RES-1 404.8 China Copper Output Climbs to 755,500 Tons in November 2014

% CNG -0.93 RES-2 409.1 SELL COPPER FEB @ 404 SL 408 TGT 400-396.MCX

Copper settled down -0.93% at 400.45 on speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates in the U.S. Prices were supported by reports that Beijing is moving to ease liquidity inside banks to help theeconomy. China Business News reported that the central bank is planning to include interbank lending by non-bank financial institutions as part of the calculated deposit base, which will expand the base for calculating theloan-to-deposit ratios. US initial jobless claims decreased 9,000 to 280,000 the week ending December 19, well below expectations and the lowest in seven weeks, indicating a recovery in the US labor market and echoingencouraging Q3 GDP released earlier. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was reported Wednesday to regulate interbank deposit and lending at non-banking financial institutions with the deposit-to-loan ratio, but set zerodeposit reserve. Industry insiders indicated that the central bank needs to cut reserve requirement ratio by 150 basis points to counter a squeeze in liquidity. In a sign of weak local demand, spot premiums for copper inShanghai bonded warehouses fell to just 80 yuan ($13) a tonne, compared with between $40-$50 in the start of the month. China’s refined copper output climbed to a record 755,500 tonnes in November, up 3.1% MoM and14.1% YoY, the National Bureau of Statistics stated. January-November output amounted to 7.18 million tonnes, rising 11.49% YoY. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by26.07% to settled at 12510 while prices down -3.75 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 397.7 and below same could see a test of 394.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 404.8, a move above could seeprices testing 409.1.

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MCX Zinc Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 137.4 SUP-2 136.3 Zinc trading range for the day is 136.3-138.3.

HIGH 137.8 SUP-1 136.8 Zinc remained in very tight range as the market sought direction amid speculation that China may ease liquidity to juice up the economy.

LOW 136.9 P.P. 137.3 Margins at Chinese industries slid sharply in November, depressing investors.

Zinc settled down -0.11% at 137.15 as prices remained in very tight range as the market sought direction amid speculation that China may ease liquidity to juice up the economy. Margins at Chinese industries slid sharply inNovember, depressing investors. European and US investors returned to the market due to the end of the Christmas holiday. LME zinc prices test support from USD 2,150/mt due to strong short momentum and high USdollar index. China’s industrial profits totaled RMB 676.12 billion in November, down 4.2% YoY, with the fall increasing 2.1 percentage points from October. The sliding profits, insufficient orders, as well as low capacityutilization rates all point to deflationary risks in the world’s second largest economy. Meanwhile, China’s goods imports and exports are expected to rise only about 3.5% in 2014, well below 7.5% targeted. The Japanesegovernment approved USD 29.17 billion of stimulus December 27 in an attempt to kick-start growth in an economy which has contracted for two consecutive quarters. The stimulus is expected to help push Japan’s GDPgrowth up 0.7 percentage point. Greece’s prime minister called for wavering members of Parliament to support candidate for president in his own party in Monday’s final round of voting, warning that the country confront“turbulence for no reason” if a snap general election is held. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.64% to settled at 2837 while prices down -0.15 rupee, now Zinc isgetting support at 136.8 and below same could see a test of 136.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 137.8, a move above could see prices testing 138.3.

MCX Nickel Dec 2014 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 965.9 SUP-2 956.3 Nickel trading range for the day is 956.3-973.9.

CLOSE 137.2 RES-1 137.8 Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 7112 tonnes.

% CNG -0.11 RES-2 138.3 SELL ZINC DEC @ 137.70-138 SL ABV 138.80 TGT 136.60-136-135.40. MCX (1-2 DAYS)

HIGH 969.4 SUP-1 960.8 Nickel traded in the range as the LME market was remained closed on last Friday

LOW 960.6 P.P. 965.1 Nickel ore inventories at China’s five major ports were 14.06mts last week, down sharply 661Ktns on a weekly basis.

CLOSE 965.4 RES-1 969.6 China’s goods imports and exports are expected to rise only about 3.5% in 2014, well below 7.5% targeted.

% CNG 0.45 RES-2 973.9 SELL NICKEL DEC @ 975 SL 990 TGT 964-950.MCX

Nickel settled up 0.45% at 965.40 traded in the range as the LME market was remained closed on last Friday. While China’s industrial profits totaled RMB 676.12 billion in November, down 4.2% YoY, with the fall increasing2.1% points from October. The sliding profits, insufficient orders, as well as low capacity utilization rates all point to deflationary risks in the world’s second largest economy. Meanwhile, China’s goods imports and exports areexpected to rise only about 3.5% in 2014, well below 7.5% targeted. Also the Japanese government approved USD 29.17 billion of stimulus December 27 in an attempt to kick-start growth in an economy which hascontracted for two consecutive quarters. The stimulus is expected to help push Japan’s GDP growth up 0.7 percentage point. Greece’s prime minister called for wavering members of Parliament to support candidate forpresident in his own party in Monday’s final round of voting, warning that the country confront “turbulence for no reason” if a snap general election is held. Nickel ore inventories at China’s five major ports were 14.06 milliontonnes last week, down sharply 661,000 tonnes on a weekly basis. The sharp decline at China’s port inventories is due largely to a fall of 550,000 tonnes at the Port of Lianyungang. Technically market is under short coveringas market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.24% to settled at 5066 while prices up 4.3 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 960.8 and below same could see a test of 956.3 level, And resistance is now likely to beseen at 969.6, a move above could see prices testing 973.90.

Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5

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NCDEX Chana Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 3385 SUP-2 3343 Chana trading range for the day is 3343-3563.

HIGH 3495 SUP-1 3411 Chana prices rose on improved demand from bulk consumers and lower sowing as well as acreage.

LOW 3385 P.P. 3453 India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing until now at 7.51 million hectares as compared to 8.94 million hectare previous year.

Chana settled up 3.17% at 3478 on improved demand from bulk consumers and lower sowing as well as acreage. Domestic demand for chickpea is strong in local mandis as quality available in market is of superior variety.Chana prices were also supported on lower sowing as acreage leading to a fall in output next year. India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing until now at 7.51 million hectares as compared to 8.94 million hectare previous year.Acreage of the crop harvested in 2015 is forecasted 12% lower at 8.90 million hectare as compared to 10.19 million hectare in previous season. Pulses sowing fell by 10.9% to 11.9 million hectare as as compared to last yeardue to lower rains and late harvesting to kharif crops in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Lower prices on the back of record output and comfortable supplies may force farmers to switch over to otherremunerative crops such as mustard and coriander which could yield better returns. Due to this, the government has set a target of 9.3 million tons for chana output for 2014-15 rabi season, down 5.87% compared toprevious year. Meanwhile, according to Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) total acreage in Australia was down by 33% to 339,000 hectare as compared to previous year. Technically market isunder short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.98% to settled at 73420 while prices up 107 rupee, now Chana is getting support at 3410 and below same could see a test of 3343 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 3520, a move above could see prices testing 3563.

NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 8660 SUP-2 8462 Turmeric trading range for the day is 8462-9166.

CLOSE 3478 RES-1 3521 Domestic demand for chickpea is strong in local mandis as quality available in market is of superior variety.

% CNG 3.17 RES-2 3563 BUY CHANA JAN @ 3450 SL 3410 TGT 3495-3550.NCDEX

HIGH 8932 SUP-1 8696 Turmeric prices gained amid rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market.

LOW 8580 P.P. 8814 Besides, tight supplies in the physical market following restricted arrivals from producing regions supported the upside.

CLOSE 8932 RES-1 9048 At Nizamabad market sources reported arrivals at 1200 quintals, down by 500 quintals from previous trading day.

% CNG 3.98 RES-2 9166 BUY TURMERIC APR @ 8850 SL 8700 TGT 8980-9100-9220.NCDEX

Turmeric settled up 3.98% at 8932 amid rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Besides, tight supplies in the physical market following restricted arrivals from producing regions supported the upside.Demand is expected to pick up further in coming weeks. Falling stocks too are likely to support the prices. At Erode market estimated market supply was at 12000 quintals, up by 2000 quintals from previous trading day. AtNizamabad market sources reported arrivals at 1200 quintals, down by 500 quintals from previous trading day. As per the market sources, the total production of turmeric in the current year is expected to be around 35-37lakh bags against 52 lakh bags of the last year. This is mainly due to weak production forecast in major producing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu. Sources mentioned that weak rainfall so far in the majorgrowing regions of turmeric in the state such as Nizamabad and Warangal will reduce the crop to 17-18 lakh bags from 22 lakh bags projected in the last year. Hybrid turmeric prices in Erode markets touched Rs. 9,600 aquintal for the first time during this year on the back of new orders from upcountry traders. The price of hybrid and local turmeric were up due to speculative buying. Some exporters have received fresh upcountry demandprocured more than 5,000 bags. technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.5% to settled at 26190 while prices up 342 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at 8697 andbelow same could see a test of 8463 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 9049, a move above could see prices testing 9167.

Date : Monday, December 29, 2014 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6

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MCX Menthaoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 732.4 SUP-2 723.9 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 723.9-743.9.

HIGH 739.0 SUP-1 728.8 Menthaoil spot is at 840/-. Spot market is up by Rs.16/-.

LOW 729.0 P.P. 733.9 Mentha oil prices gained amid pick-up in domestic demand against tight supplies from producing belts.

CLOSE 733.7 RES-1 738.8 Besides, restricted arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supported uptrend.

% CNG 0.58 RES-2 743.9 BUY MENTHA OIL JAN ABV 732 SL BELOW 720 TGT 740-748-756. MCX (BTST)

400.45 137.15 965.4 117

Menthaoil settled up 0.58% at 733.7 amid pick-up in domestic demand against tight supplies from producing belts. Besides, restricted arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supported uptrend. Mentha Oil found somesupport at the lower levels as closure of International markets for Christmas and New Year adversely affected the export demand that had picked up recently. However, domestic demand from pharmaceutical Industries inIndian markets may support the falling rates in coming days. Exports expected to pick up in Jan 2nd week as International markets open. At Sambhal market total arrivals are at 60 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 10Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 150 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Bareilly market total arrivals are at 2 Drums(1-drum-180kg), lower by 1 Drums(1-drum-180kg) from previous day’s arrivals. At Rampur market sources reported arrivals at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), down by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. Mentha oilproduction is expected to fall this year by 30 per cent to 40,000 tonnes from 55,000 tonnes a year ago, with acreage under the commodity declining as farmers sentiment were dampened due to lower prices. Mentha oilarrivals to the spot market, especially from the Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, have increased substantially. The resulting fall in prices was capped due to lower production of the commodity this season. Technically market isunder fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.51% to settled at 9302 while prices up 4.2 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 728.8 and below same could see a test of 723.9 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 738.8, a move above could see prices testing 743.9.

DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY

COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD

117.6

27211 37755 3601 199.6

CLOSE 27073 37315 3547 196

404.8 137.8 969.6 117.8137.3 965.1 117.3

RESISTANCE27587 38744 3688 206.3 411.9 138.8 978.4 118.927348 38194 3656 203.1 409.1 138.3 973.9 118.4

P. POINT 26972 37205 3569 196.4 402.0

26459 35777 3427 186.2 390.6SUPPORT 26596 36216 3482 189.7 394.9 956.3 116.2

26835 36766 3514 192.9 397.7

OI 7273 8677 25784 12332 12510 2837 5066 2385135.8 952.0 115.6

136.8 960.8 116.7136.3

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Positive Positive

SPREAD 237 625 54.00 1.90 4.20 0.00 8.60

TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive

0.90

119.8119.3118.4

115.6116.5117.0

2393

117.9

1.15

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PREV

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday reiterated the central bank's commitment toachieve the 2 percent inflation target as early as possible and stated that the additional stimulus wasnot just in response to a slump in crude oil prices. Speaking at a business leaders' conference inTokyo, Kuroda said, "If 2 percent inflation is achieved in Japan as in trading partners going forward,at least a risk of the appreciation of the yen brought about by the differences in inflation ratesbetween Japan and abroad will become smaller." Following a peak in April, Japan's consumer priceinflation eased given the weak demand following the sales tax hike and the decline in global oil prices."To avoid any misunderstanding, let me be clear that the additional easing was not a response to thedecline in crude oil prices itself," the BoJ Chief said. "Japan, a commodity-importing country, gains alarge advantage from the decline in crude oil prices, especially when the decline is caused mainly bysupply-side factors such as developments in oil-producing countries as it is this time."

Mon

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NEWS YOU CAN USE DAY TIME ZONE ECONOMICAL DATA EXP

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased in the week endedDecember 20th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initialjobless claims fell to 280,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of289,000. The modest decrease came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims toinch up to 290,000. With the unexpected drop, jobless claims slid to their lowest level since hitting278,000 in the week ended November 1st. The Labor Department also said the less volatile four-weekmoving average dipped to 290,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised averageof 298,750. On the other hand, the report said continuing claims rose to 2.403 million in the weekended December 13th from the preceding week's revised level of 2.378 million. Continuing claimsrepresent a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also climbed to 2,418,250 from the preceding week'srevised average of 2,398,250.

Retail sales in Japan increased at a slower than expected rate in November, figures from the Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry showed Friday. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent year-on-year inNovember, less than the 1.1 percent growth expected by economists. In October, sales had advanced1.4 percent. On a month-over-month basis, retail sales fell 0.3 percent. This belied expectations for a0.2 percent rebound. Sales from large retailers added 1.2 percent year-on-year in November, morethan the 0.6 percent increase expected by economists. In October, sales had remained flat.

Government has raised the import tax on crude edible oils and refined oils by 5 percentage pointseach to protect local farmers from rising imports from Malaysia and Indonesia. In an order madepublic on Thursday, it said the import tax on the crude variety of vegetable oil would rise to 7.5percent from 2.5 percent, while that on refined oil would rise to 15 from 10 percent with immediateeffect. India is the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. It meets nearly 60 percent of its 18-19million tonnes of annual demand from overseas, mostly in the form of palm oil from top producersIndonesia and Malaysia. The increase in import duties is expected to hit Malaysian palm oil futures,the regional benchmark. Still, the food ministry had sought to double the tax on crude edible oilswhile increasing that on refined oils by 50 percent. Hit by cheaper vegetable oil imports from Malaysiaand Indonesia, industry body the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) had petitioned thegovernment to raise the import duty on crude vegetable oils to 10 percent and 25 percent on refinedproducts.

Russia's grain exports have stopped due to curbs brought in to protect domestic supply, putting bigdeals at risk, an influential farm lobby group said. Russia's main wheat buyers are Turkey, Iran and,very vulnerable to supply disruption, Egypt. Moscow imposed informal grain export controls withtougher quality monitoring and limits on railroad loadings earlier this month, as it tackles a financialcrisis linked to plunging oil and Western sanctions. Officials also plan to impose duty on grain exports.Zlochevsky said its exact level was an unimportant detail, as he was sure it would be prohibitive.Russia imposed a duty on wheat exports in 2008 and an official ban in 2010 when a drought hit itscrop. The 2010 ban was partially responsible for triggering social unrest and a revolution in Egypt, asmore than 500,000 tonnes were not supplied and global prices rose damaging Egypt's state breadsubsidy programme, Zlochevsky said. About 3 million tonnes of grain due for export until the end ofJanuary were now stuck, Zlochevsky said. As a result, Russia may fail to supply wheat to Egypt'sGeneral Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the state buyer of the world's largest wheatimporter, in January, he added.

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