Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

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Daily Commodity Report as on Wednesday, January 14, 2015 Date : Wednesday, January 14, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Transcript of Achiievers Equities Daily Commodity Report

Daily Commodity Report as on Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Date : Wednesday, January 14, 2015 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Open High Low Close % Cng OI

Gold 27145 27262 27005 27055 0.09 7887Silver 37240 38290 37240 38158 3.21 10439

Alum. 111.8 112.2 109.8 110.85 -1.03 2913Copper 375.6 375.6 364.2 364.95 -3.22 16272Lead 115.1 115.25 112.4 112.75 -2.30 2689Nickel 936.3 936.7 903.6 905.1 -3.63 5662Zinc 132.4 132.6 128.8 129 -2.53 3121

Crude 2866 2870 2757 2826 -2.21 28706Nat. Gas 175.3 182.3 175 180.7 3.43 8281

Chana 27145 27262 27005 27055 0.09 7887

Cardamom 1063.5 1088 1058.2 1082.5 2.27 1546Turmeric 9000 9260 8902 9206 2.52 34550

Jeera 15975 16485 15835 16260 4.30 14358Dhaniya 8345 8346 8001 8001 -4.00 9270

Wheat 1707 1707 1681 1686 -1.69 2980

Soyabean 3431 3449 3419 3442 -0.72 92540Ref. Oil 655 656.6 649.2 652.35 -0.46 78555CPO 458.8 462.6 458.8 461.7 0.02 2099RMSeed 3600 3624 3526 3547 -1.91 37730Menthol 747.9 758.5 742.3 744.7 -0.35 9249Cotton 15200 15260 15150 15250 0.46 5487

USDINR 62.31 62.38 62.21 62.31 -0.14 1442978EURINR 73.99 73.99 73.50 73.55 -0.09 49215GBPINR 94.46 94.66 93.96 94.27 -0.14 31249JPYINR 52.74 52.90 52.42 52.62 0.60 12162

Chana prices dropped on lower-than-expected local demand though lower sowing and supply concern limited the downside.

Turmeric prices ended with gains on worries about lower production due to unfavourable weather. Currency

Jeera prices ended with gains as fungal disease affected Jeera standing crop in Gujarat.

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Natural gas prices rebounded as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses.

Ref soyoil ended with losses on subdued demand for Indian soymeal following weak export data.Cereals

Mentha oil pared gains on late profit booking after prices gained on the back of strong demand from consuming industriesOil and Oilseeds & Others

Soyabean prices dropped after USDA raised soybean supply forecast and on weak demand for Indian meal in export market.

Energy Copper drops by over 3%, falling to lowest level since September 2009 as record Chinese imports failed to convince investors that demand is strong enough

Zinc dropped shrugging off benign trade data from top metals user China as further falls in oil markets soured broader appetite for commoditiesPulses

Nickel prices dropped heavily as market sentiment was depressed after crude oil prices slumped to a six-year lowSpices

Market Round upPrecious Metals

Gold settled flat as the dollar returned to near its session-highs and as crude oil prices pared steep losses.

Base MetalSilver gains as investors sought shelter from steep losses in the oil market and amid growing speculation the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for longer.

Crude oil prices continued to tumble to trade near the lowest level in six-years as ongoing concerns over a glut in global supplies drove down prices.

Silver settled up 3.21% at 38158 rallied tracking firmness from Comex Silver which rallied 2.59% to settled at $17.03 a troy ounce, after hitting a daily peak of $17.13, the most since December 15 before trimming some ofthose gains as the U.S. dollar strengthened and stock markets rebounded from the previous day's losses. Also Silver garnering support from potential supply concerns as the price of copper tumbles, Silver is a byproduct ofcopper mining. Weaker oil prices tend to hurt bullion as they reduce the need for the precious metal as a hedge against oil-led inflation. But as equity markets have been hit by the slump in oil prices and concerns have risenover its economic impact, flight-to-safety demand has bolstered the metal. U.S. stocks were broadly higher after the open on Tuesday, following two days of losses on the S&P 500, as upbeat results from Alcoa helped easeconcerns regarding the corporate earnings season. Bullion remained supported after the latest U.S. jobs report last week showed a surprise drop in hourly wages, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could keep rates on holdfor longer. The precious metal lost nearly 2% in 2014 amid indications a strengthening U.S. economic recovery will force the Fed to start raising interest rates sooner and faster than previously thought. A delay in raisinginterest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout. Technically market is under fresh buying as market haswitnessed gain in open interest by 5.42% to settled at 10439, now Silver is getting support at 37502 and below same could see a test of 36846 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38552, a move above could seeprices testing 38946.

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CLOSE 38158 RES-1 38552 Bullion traders were closely watching moves in currency markets as a stronger dollar would dull the metal's appeal as a hedge.

% CNG 3.21 RES-2 38946 SELL SILVER MAR @ 38300 SL 38600 TGT 37920-37400.MCX

HIGH 38290 SUP-1 37502 Silver gains as investors sought shelter from steep losses in the oil market and amid growing speculation the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for longer.

LOW 37240 P.P. 37896 Silver rose to a one-month high garnering support from potential supply concerns as the price of copper tumbles.

Gold settled up at 27055 with investors seeking the safety of the precious metal as U.S. equity markets continued to fluctuate on plummeting oil prices. Gold prices reached 3-month highs before surrendering most of thegains, after the dollar strengthened against major rivals. Bullion prices have jumped this week amid renewed expectations that stagnant U.S. wages will dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in the first halfof the year. However, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates by the middle of the year. The U.S. economy is now "hitting on all cylinders," Lockhart told the Rotary Clubof Atlanta Monday morning. "The recovery that began in 2009 is well-advanced." Meanwhile, political upheaval in Greece could prove chaotic for the eurozone, boosting the precious metal's safe haven appeal. While Weakeroil prices tend to hurt gold as they reduce the need for the precious metal as a hedge against oil-led inflation. But as equity markets have been hit by the slump in oil prices and concerns have risen over its economic impact,flight-to-safety demand has bolstered the metal. Gold rose as investors channelled money into the asset along with other safe havens such as the yen. Weakness in the dollar and buying in Chinese physical markets were alsosupporting prices. However, not many were convinced gold could hold the gains through the year. Strong U.S. economic data in the last few months have led many in the market to expect the U.S. Federal Reserve toincrease interest rates this year for the first time since 2006. Technically market is getting support at 26952 and below same could see a test of 26850 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 27209, a move abovecould see prices testing 27364.

MCX Silver Mar 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 37240 SUP-2 36846 Silver trading range for the day is 36846-38946.

CLOSE 27055 RES-1 27209 World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2015 and next year due to disappointing economic prospects in the euro zone and Japan

% CNG 0.09 RES-2 27364 SELL GOLD FEB @ 27120 SL 27300 TGT 26920-26780.MCX

HIGH 27262 SUP-1 26952 Gold settled flat as the dollar returned to near its session-highs and as crude oil prices pared steep losses.

LOW 27005 P.P. 27107 Prices remained supported after the latest U.S. jobs report last week showed a surprise drop in hourly wages

MCX Gold Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 27145 SUP-2 26850 Gold trading range for the day is 26850-27364.

Copper settled down -3.22% at 364.95 tumbled in the line of expectation to the lowest level in more than five years on Tuesday, as strong trade data from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, failed to boostsentiment. Pressure seen after China reported a trade surplus of $49.6 billion in December, broadly in line with expectations. Exports jumped 9.7% in December, but imports rose by a smaller-than-forecast 2.4%, pointing toweak domestic demand. According to the data, China imported 420,000 tons of copper in December, unchanged from November. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies,hovered near a 12-year peak, boosted by the diverging policy outlook between the Fed and central banks in Europe and Japan. The euro remained under pressure amid speculation that the European Central Bank will embarkon full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next meeting on January 22. A stronger dollar reduces demand for raw materials as an alternative investment and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holdersof other currencies. Also Bullion remained supported after the latest U.S. jobs report last week showed a surprise drop in hourly wages, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could keep rates on hold for longer. The preciousmetal lost nearly 2% in 2014 amid indications a strengthening U.S. economic recovery will force the Fed to start raising interest rates sooner and faster than previously thought. Technically market is under long liquidation asmarket has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.48% to settled at 16272 while prices down -12.15 rupee, now Copper is getting support at 361 and below same could see a test of 356.9 level, And resistance is now likely tobe seen at 372.4, a move above could see prices testing 379.7.

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CLOSE 365.0 RES-1 372.4 Exports jumped 9.7% in December, but imports rose by a smaller-than-forecast 2.4%, pointing to weak domestic demand.

% CNG -3.22 RES-2 379.7 SELL COPPER FEB BELOW 362 SL 366 TGT 358-353-348.MCX

HIGH 375.6 SUP-1 361.0 Copper drops by over 3%, falling to lowest level since September 2009 as record Chinese imports failed to convince investors that demand is strong enough

LOW 364.2 P.P. 368.3 China reported a trade surplus of $49.6 billion in December, broadly in line with expectations.

Crudeoil settled down -2.21% at 2826 trimmed losses in volatile trade on Tuesday, with WTI rising back above the $45, despite ongoing concerns over a glut in global supplies. Crude oil rallied towards the close but stillended lower for a third straight session on Tuesday, ahead of the official weekly oil report from the U.S. EIA and after a top Middle East oil producer said it will not curb production anytime soon. The OPEC will stick to itsdecision to keep oil output unchanged even if prices continue to fall, the UAE's oil minister said Tuesday. UAE oil minister said in Abu Dhabi, "[OPEC] cannot continue protecting a certain price. That is not the only aim ofOPEC." He added, "We are concerned about the balance of the market but we cannot be the only party that is responsible to balance the market." It is thought that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are wielding influence over the oilcartel, pumping oil in hopes of crippling non-OPEC rivals and delaying the adoption of renewable energies. A number of investment banks have slashed their outlook for crude prices this week, including Goldman Sachs andCitigroup. With no bottom in sight, U.S. WTI crude oil is at its lowest in more than five years, with prices having dropped more than 55 percent from last summer's highs above $100. In economic news, China's trade surplusdecreased slightly less than expected in December as exports rose more than forecast while imports continued to fall, although at a slower than expected rate, data from the customs office showed on Tuesday. Technicallymarket is getting support at 2766 and below same could see a test of 2705 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2879, a move above could see prices testing 2931.

MCX Copper Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 375.6 SUP-2 356.9 Copper trading range for the day is 356.9-379.7.

CLOSE 2826 RES-1 2879 Today crude oil inventories: Exp: 1.2M Prev: -3.1M. Actual is at 9.00PM

% CNG -2.21 RES-2 2931 SELL CRUDE OIL JAN @ 2890 SL 2950 TGT 2830-2780-2730.MCX

HIGH 2870 SUP-1 2766 Crude oil prices continued to tumble to trade near the lowest level in six-years as ongoing concerns over a glut in global supplies drove down prices.

LOW 2757 P.P. 2818 The energy minister for the UAE, suggested that the cartel will not lower production to reduce global supplies in an effort to reverse falling prices.

MCX Crudeoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 2866 SUP-2 2705 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 2705-2931.

Nickel settled down -3.63% at 905.10 after China imports and exports in December both topped market expectations, but fell short of annual target. LME nickel prices which opened at USD 15,100/mt overnight, and slippedbelow USD 15,000/mt level, dipping to as low as USD 14,950/mt, but rallying to USD 15,000/mt. LME nickel prices plunged to hit a new low, and closing at USD 14,499/mt, down 4.26%. China Customs reported Tuesdaythat China’s imports and exports grew 2.3% to RMB 26.43 trillion last year, falling much short of a 7.5% increase targeted. Growth in the country’s imports and exports thus has missed annual targets for a third straightyear. Director of the General Administration of Customs indicated that the worse-than-expected trade data underscores pressure from unfavorable domestic and external conditions on the Chinese economy. The PBOC wasrumored to have renewed some RMB 280 billion of expired MLF to ensure stable liquidity. The NFIB reported Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.3 points to 100.4 in December, the highest since October2006 and above 100 for the first time in eight years. US job openings surged in November to the highest in almost 14 years, pointing to a sustained recovery in the US labor market. The inspiring economic indicators helpedpush the US dollar index up 0.29% to 92.27. US stocks, however, closed lower again on Tuesday. However, nickel ore inventories at China’s major ports have been falling since the beginning of monsoon season in thePhilippines, which becomes the largest nickel ore supplier since Indonesia’s export ban on unprocessed ores in earlier 2014. Technically market is getting support at 893.5 and below same could see a test of 882 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 926.6, a move above could see prices testing 948.2.

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CLOSE 905.1 RES-1 926.6 Jinchuan Group reduced nickel ex-works prices to 109,500 yuan per tonne on January 13.

% CNG -3.63 RES-2 948.2 SELL NICKEL JAN @ 915 SL 930 TGT 902-885.MCX

HIGH 936.7 SUP-1 893.5 Nickel prices dropped heavily as market sentiment was depressed after crude oil prices slumped to a six-year low

LOW 903.6 P.P. 915.1 China imports and exports in December both topped market expectations, but fell short of annual target.

Zinc settled down -2.53% at 129 as prices suffered from sell-offs and fell all the way to end at USD 2,074.75/mt, down USD 65.5/mt or 3.06% after the World Bank slashed its 2015 global growth forecast in the latestreport. Crude oil prices fell more slowly but showed no signs of rallying. Risks from the euro zone continued to fuel market concerns. US stocks showed wild swings. The Dow once jumped 280 points helped by short-covering, but then fell back and posted a 100-point drop at one time. China Customs reported Tuesday that China’s imports and exports grew 2.3% to RMB 26.43 trillion last year, falling much short of a 7.5% increasetargeted. Growth in the country’s imports and exports thus has missed annual targets for a third straight year. Director of the General Administration of Customs indicated that the worse-than-expected trade dataunderscores pressure from unfavorable domestic and external conditions on the Chinese economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was rumored to have renewed some RMB 280 billion of expired MLF to ensure stableliquidity. The NFIB reported Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.3 points to 100.4 in December, the highest since October 2006 and above 100 for the first time in eight years. US job openings surged inNovember to the highest in almost 14 years, pointing to a sustained recovery in the US labor market. The inspiring economic indicators helped push the US dollar index up 0.29% to 92.27. Investors rushed to move capital tothe bond and precious metals markets, putting considerable pressure on the commodities market. Technically market is getting support at 127.6 and below same could see a test of 126.3 level, And resistance is now likely tobe seen at 131.4, a move above could see prices testing 133.9.

MCX Nickel Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 936.3 SUP-2 882.0 Nickel trading range for the day is 882-948.2.

CLOSE 129.0 RES-1 131.4 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 100 tonnes.

% CNG -2.53 RES-2 133.9 SELL ZINC JAN BELOW 128.80 SL 130 TGT 127.80-126.50.MCX

HIGH 132.6 SUP-1 127.6 Zinc dropped shrugging off benign trade data from top metals user China as further falls in oil markets soured broader appetite for commodities

LOW 128.8 P.P. 130.1 Worries about lacklustre growth in the global economy and the rout in oil hurt other metals on the London Metal Exchange too

MCX Zinc Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 132.4 SUP-2 126.3 Zinc trading range for the day is 126.3-133.9.

Turmeric settled up by 2.52% at 9206 on worries about lower production due to unfavourable weather. Expectation of improved demand in coming days supported the market sentiments. Falling stocks too are likely tosupport the prices. A fall in sowing area in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka due to the cyclone in October amidst delayed Monsoon could affect the production adversely-as per market sources. Even as area in Andhra Pradesh goesup, overall production is expected to come down-lending medium term support to the prices. Traders, especially exporters, procured good number of turmeric due to arrival of good quality produce. Many buyers were keenon buying quality hybrid turmeric and also local root variety turmeric. Sowing of Turmeric in AP for the 2014-15 season is reported at 0.13 lakh ha, as against 0.1 lakh ha last year. The area in Telanaga stood at 0.446 lakhha against 0.431 lakh ha last year. Exports in turmeric have increased by 10% to 43000 tonnes during Apr-Sep 2014 as compared to last year. The export target for the 2014-15 is 80000 tonnes according to Spice Board. AtNizamabad market total arrivals are at 1500 quintals, steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Erode estimated market supply was at 8000 quintals, lower by 9000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals. In Nizamabad, amajor spot market in AP, the price ended at 8015 rupees gained 101.85 rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.1% to settled at 34550 while prices up 226 rupee,now Turmeric is getting support at 8984 and below same could see a test of 8764 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 9342, a move above could see prices testing 9480.

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CLOSE 9206 RES-1 9342 At Erode estimated market supply was at 8000 quintals, lower by 9000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals.

% CNG 2.52 RES-2 9480 BUY TURMERIC APR ABV 9260 SL 9100 TGT 9380-9460-9600.NCDEX

HIGH 9260 SUP-1 8984 Turmeric prices ended with gains on worries about lower production due to unfavourable weather.

LOW 8902 P.P. 9122 Expectation of improved demand in coming days supported the market sentiments.

Chana settled down by -2.24% at 3486 on lower-than-expected local demand though lower sowing and supply concern limited the downside. India, the world's biggest producer and importer of pulses, has extended duty-free imports of chickpea, or chana, till March-end, due to lower area under cultivation. Chana arrivals were steady at 30 trucks as compared to previous day. India 2014-15 rabi gram sowing until Jan 9 at 8.1 million hectaresas compared to 9.58 million hectare previous year. Pulses sowing fell by 10% to 13.13 million hectare as compared to last year due to lower rains and late harvesting to kharif crops in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra andAndhra Pradesh. Acreage of the crop harvested in 2015 is forecasted 12% lower at 8.90 million hectare as compared to 10.19 million hectare in previous season. Lower prices on the back of record output and comfortablesupplies may force farmers to switch over to other remunerative crops such as mustard and coriander which could yield better returns. Due to this, the government has set a target of 9.3 million tons for chana output for2014-15 rabi season, down 5.87% compared to previous year. Meanwhile, according to Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) total acreage in Australia was down by 33% to 339,000 hectare ascompared to previous year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -26.3 rupee to end at 3500 rupee per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.84% to settledat 106940 while prices down -80 rupee, now Chana is getting support at 3435 and below same could see a test of 3383 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3557, a move above could see prices testing 3627.

NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 9000 SUP-2 8764 Turmeric trading range for the day is 8764-9480.

CLOSE 3486 RES-1 3557 Chana arrivals were steady at 30 trucks as compared to previous day.

% CNG -2.24 RES-2 3627 BUY CHANA FEB @ 3460 SL 3440 TGT 3500-3540.NCDEX

HIGH 3575 SUP-1 3435 Chana prices dropped on lower-than-expected local demand though lower sowing and supply concern limited the downside.

LOW 3453 P.P. 3505 India has extended duty-free imports of chickpea, or chana, till March-end, due to lower area under cultivation.

NCDEX Chana Feb 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 3557 SUP-2 3383 Chana trading range for the day is 3383-3627.

117.4116.3114.6

109.0110.7111.8

2689

113.5

1.15

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Positive Positive

SPREAD 190 633 67.00 0.70 3.60 0.80 7.50

TREND Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive

0.95

882.0 108.626952 37502 2766 176.3 361.0

OI 7887 10439 28706 8281 16272 3121 5662 2913123.8 860.4 107.4

127.6 893.5 109.8126.3

P. POINT 27107 37896 2818 179.3 368.3

26695 36452 2653 169.0 349.6SUPPORT 26850 36846 2705 172.0 356.9

372.4 131.4 926.6 112.2130.1 915.1 111.0

RESISTANCE27466 39602 2992 190.9 383.8 135.2 959.7 114.627364 38946 2931 186.6 379.7 133.9 948.2 113.427209 38552 2879 183.6

CLOSE 27055 38158 2826 180.7 364.95 129 905.1 110.85

Mentha oil settled down by -0.35% at 744.7 on late profit booking after prices gained on the back of strong demand from consuming industries in spot markets against lower arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. Menthaoil production in India is likely to decline by 20% due to lower plantings of the aromatic herb on falling prices in the last two years. In fact, huge carryover stocks from the previous year coupled with huge capacity built up ofsynthetic mint, a substitute of mentha oil, also discouraged farmers to bring less area under mentha plant this year. Sources estimate total area under mentha planting reported a decline of 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this seasonresulting into a proportionate fall in mentha oil production this year. Sources estimate India's mentha oil production at 55,000 tonnes in 2013-14 of which around 40% quantity remained unsold and therefore, carried over forthe year 2014-15. At Bareilly market sources reported arrivals at 2 Drums(1-drum-180kg), unchanged as compared to previous day’s arrival. At Sambhal market sources reported arrivals at 50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), lowerby 10 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. At Rampur market source reported arrivals at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. Technically market is under longliquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.93% to settled at 9249 while prices down -2.6 rupee, now Menthaoil is getting support at 738.5 and below same could see a test of 732.3 level, And resistanceis now likely to be seen at 754.7, a move above could see prices testing 764.7.

DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY

COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM LEAD

112.8

CLOSE 744.7 RES-1 754.7 Mentha oil production in India is likely to decline by 20% due to lower plantings of the aromatic herb.

% CNG -0.35 RES-2 764.7 BUY MENTHA OIL ABV 748 SL 736 TGT 756-765-774.MCX

HIGH 758.5 SUP-1 738.5 Menthaoil spot is at 878/-. Spot market is up by Rs.2/-.

LOW 742.3 P.P. 748.5 Mentha oil pared gains on late profit booking after prices gained on the back of strong demand from consuming industries

MCX Menthaoil Jan 2015 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 747.9 SUP-2 732.3 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 732.3-764.7.

1:15pm EUR 0 -0.002Tentative EUR 0 03:30pm EUR 0 0.001Tentative EUR 0 0.74|1.17:00pm USD 0.001 0.0057:00pm USD 0.002 0.0077:00pm USD -0.027 -0.0158:30pm USD 0.002 0.0029:00pm USD 1.2M -3.1M11:31pm USD 0 2.85|2.8

0 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0

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A measure of people's assessment of the Japanese economy improved in December after worseningin the previous two months, survey figures from the Cabinet Office showed. The current index of theeconomy watchers survey rose by 3.7 points to 45.2 in December from 41.5 in November.Economists had forecast the index to rise to 44.0. A reading above 50 suggests optimism and a scorebelow 50 indicates pessimism. The latest increase was the first in three months. Meanwhile, theoutlook index climbed to 46.7 in December from 44.0 in the prior month. It was the highest scoresince September, when it was at 48.7. Marcel Thieliant, a Japan economist at Capital Economics notedthat the strong rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey in December stands in stark contrast withother business surveys which mostly weakened last month. The economist said he would place moreweight on small business confidence and the PMIs, which on balance worsened at the end of last yearand remain consistent with falling industrial output.

The Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates by the middle of the year, according to AtlantaFed President Dennis Lockhart. The U.S. economy is now "hitting on all cylinders," Lockhart told theRotary Club of Atlanta Monday morning. "The recovery that began in 2009 is well-advanced." Daysafter the Labor Department said U.S. unemployment dropped to 5.6 percent in December, Lockhartacknowledged "more improvement in labor markets in 2014 than in any other year of the recovery."Perhaps as important, Lockhart said he expects wages to rise. Stagnant wages were a dark lining onDecember's otherwise strong jobs report, prompting some Fed officials to urge patience before hikingrates. Lockhart also said that consumers "seem to be more prepared to open their pocketbooks."Even so, the Fed will be watching closely at incoming economic data for any signs that the recoveryhas stalled.

India had 25.1 million tonnes of wheat in government warehouses as of January 1, sources said, morethan three times the target, potentially making it easier for the Government to allow exports to cashin on attractive global prices. Bumper harvests since 2007 have led to huge stockpiles of rice andwheat with the government, which buys from farmers to meet emergencies and run welfareprogrammes. India's milled rice inventory at the beginning of January was 11.7 million tonnes againsta target of 11.8 million tonnes. Government's rice inventory target is for paddy or unmilled rice. Indiain 2011 lifted a four-year-old ban on wheat and non-basmati rice exports to offload grains from itsbulging bins. The country has shipped out nearly 7 million tonnes of wheat from its warehouses in thepast few years. Since 2009, the government has kept an additional 3 million tonnes of wheat and 2million tonnes of rice as strategic reserves in addition to the monthly stocks.

Palm oil output in Malaysia fell by the most in eight years after floods inundated plantations in thesecond-largest producer, according to official data that showed a bigger decline than expected.Output tumbled 22 percent to 1.36 million metric tons last month from a month earlier, the biggestdrop since December 2006, the Palm Oil Board said. That compares with a 1.46 million-ton estimatein a survey published last week. Reserves fell 12 percent to 2.01 million tons, lower than the 2.05million ton median estimate. Exports rose 0.4 percent to 1.52 million tons, while the survey showed a2 percent drop. Futures surged to a six-month high last week on concerns that the worst floods indecades in Peninsular Malaysia hurt harvesting, exacerbating the impact of a seasonal decline inoutput in the world’s most-used edible oil. The heavier-than-usual monsoon rains displaced hundredsof thousands, while damaging roads and bridges. Exports dropped 13 percent to 355,846 tons in thefirst 10 days of January from the same period a month earlier, surveyor Intertek said. Malaysia’s palmimports fell 8.7 percent to 90,353 tons last month, board data showed.

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China's exports and imports exceeded market expectations in December, a welcome sign that Beijinghas found support for its cooling manufacturing sector as a stronger U.S. economy offsets weaknessin Europe and Japan. Policymakers are trying to steer the world's second-largest economy through asoft patch as it also confronts weak consumption and a slowdown in the property market. Exportsrose 9.7 percent from a year earlier in dollar-denominated terms, official data showed, while importsdropped for a second month in a row by 2.4 percent. That left the country with a trade surplus of$49.6 billion for the month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.The country's combined imports and exports last year grew 3.4 percent, missing the government'sannual target of 7.5 percent growth for net trade. The Ministry of Commerce had earlier predictedexports would fall short, due to negative surprises in the second half.

Wed

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