Ace limited presentation december 2 and 4, 2013
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Transcript of Ace limited presentation december 2 and 4, 2013
ACE LIMITED
DECEMBER 2013
Explanatory Note
Today’s presentation will contain forward-looking statements, both written and spoken, including as described in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.This means statements in prepared remarks as well as during question and answer sessions and general discussion.
Forward-looking statements will include statements relating to our business operations and vision for ACE, the insurance industry, economic and insurance industrydevelopments, our financial outlook, our use of capital, anticipated pricing and financial performance trends, competition, growth prospects, and acquisitions. Thewords “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “should”, “plan”, “expect”, “intend”, “hope”, “feel”, “will likely result”, and “will continue”, and variations thereof and similarexpressions identify forward-looking statements -- but any statement other than statements of historical fact could be forward-looking. Forward-looking statementsmade by us or on our behalf reflect only our current views with respect to future events, circumstances and performance. You are cautioned not to place unduereliance on these forward-looking statements, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of newinformation, future events or otherwise.
Our forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could, should potential events occur, cause actual results to differmaterially from such statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors (some of which will be highlighted today but others of which are described in more detailin our SEC filings) include but are not limited to: developments in global financial markets, including changes in interest rates, currency exchange rates, stock markets,and other financial markets; increased government involvement or intervention in the financial services industry or ACE specifically; the cost and availability offinancing; general economic and business conditions; losses arising out of natural or man-made catastrophes such as hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, floods,climate change or terrorism; actions that rating agencies may take from time to time, such as financial strength or credit ratings downgrades or placing these ratings oncredit watch negative or the equivalent; capital constraints and capital flexibility reduction; the ability to collect reinsurance recoverable, credit developments ofreinsurers, and changes in the cost, quality, or availability of reinsurance; actual loss experience from insured or reinsured events and the timing of claim payments;the uncertainties of the loss-reserving and claims-settlement processes, including the difficulties associated with assessing environmental damage and latent injuries;judicial decisions and rulings, new theories of liability, legal tactics, and settlement terms; corporate governance and corporate law issues including those affecting usas a Swiss company regulated in many jurisdictions; uncertainties relating to governmental, legislative and regulatory policies, developments, actions, investigationsand treaties, including tax-related; the actual amount of new and renewal business, market acceptance of our products, and risks associated with the introduction ofnew products and services and entering new markets, including regulatory constraints; the competitive environment in which we operate, including trends in pricing orin policy terms and conditions; acquisitions made by us performing differently than expected (or failing to close) and the impact of acquisitions on our pre-existingorganization; and management’s response to these factors and actual events.
Moreover, today’s presentations may contain reference to non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of our commonly-used non-GAAP financial measures,we refer you to our most recent earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on the ACE website (www.acegroup.com) under Investor Information.
1
2013 – A Record Year So FarUS$ in millions
* In Constant $** Since 12/31/12
YTD 9/30/12
YTD 9/30/13 % change
Operating income $2,132 $2,393 + 12.2%
Global P&C net premiums $9,085* $9,970 + 9.7%*
Agriculture net premiums $1,775 $1,371 (22.8%)
Total P&C net premiums $10,956 $11,341 + 3.5%
International Life premiums & deposits $941 $1,154 + 22.7%
Combined ratio 90.2% 87.5% (2.7 pts)
Operating return on equity 12.1% 12.3% + 20 bps
Book value per common share $79.36 $82.98 + 2.6%**
Book value per common share, excl. AOCI $71.41 $79.10 +8.1%**
A Truly Global Insurer
2
U.S. & Canada
Latin America
Europe / Middle East / Africa
Asia
BermudaGross Premiums$11.9 billion
Net Premiums$8.1 billion
Employees8,200
Offices160
Gross Premiums$2.0 billion
Net Premiums$1.7 billion
Employees3,000
Countries9
Offices100
Gross Premiums$4.3 billion
Net Premiums$3.1 billion
Employees2,600
Countries28
Offices65
Gross Premiums$2.8 billion
Net Premiums$2.3 billion
Employees4,800
Countries14
Offices130
Gross Premiums$0.5 billion
Net Premiums$0.4 billion
Employees200
2013F
ReinsuranceGross Premiums
$1.3 billionNet Premiums
$1.3 billion
Substantial Scale & Financial Strength
3
Scale 2003 2008 03-13 Factor
Gross Premiums $14.6 $19.2 $22.8 1.6x 1.2x
Net Premiums 10.2 13.1 16.9 1.7x 1.3x
Market Cap 11.6 17.7 35.0* 3.0x 2.0x
Global P&C Multiline Rank 16 10 6* NM
Employees 9,000 15,000 19,000 2.1x
2013F
Total Assets $49.6 $72.1 $94.6 1.9x
Total Investments 23.4 39.7 60.3 2.6x 1.5x
Shareholders’ Equity 8.8 14.4 28.2 3.2x 2.0x
Total Capital 11.2 18.0 34.2 3.1x
Debt to Total Capital 26.1% 19.9% 17.6% NM
S&P Rating (FSR) A+ A+ AA- NM
Financial Strength 9/30/13
US$ in billions
2003 2008 03-13 Factor
* As of 11/29/13
08-13 Factor
08-13 Factor
A&H19%
Life2
3% PL4% Re
5%
Commercial & Specialty P&C
58%
Agri11%
A&H18%
Life2
7% PL8%
Re5%
Commercial & Specialty P&C
50%
Agri12%
A&H9%
Life2
1%PL1%
Re9%
Commercial & Specialty P&C
74%
Agri6%
Product Diversification
4
Commercial & Specialty P&C $10.8 B
Industrial & Commercial 47% / $5.1 BSpecialty 53% / $5.7 B
Agriculture $0.9 BA&H $1.2 BLife 2 $0.2 BPersonal Lines $0.2 BP&C Reinsurance $1.3 BTotal GPW 1 $14.6 B
Commercial & Specialty P&C $11.3 B
Industrial & Commercial 45% / $5.1 BSpecialty 55% / $6.3 B
Agriculture $2.2 B A&H $3.6 BLife 2 $0.6 BPersonal Lines $0.7 BP&C Reinsurance $0.9 BTotal GPW 1 $19.4 B
Commercial & Specialty P&C $11.9 B
Industrial & Commercial 44% / $5.3 BSpecialty 56% / $6.6 B
Agriculture $2.7 BA&H $4.2 BLife 2 $1.7 BPersonal Lines $1.9 BP&C Reinsurance $1.0 BTotal GPW 1 $23.4 B
1. Includes life premiums & deposits. 2. Life includes premiums & deposits.
11% 25% 33%
Note: 2013 figures include contributions from acquisitions closed in 2013; China operations not included (ACE has 20% ownership in Huatai P&C, with expected 2013 GPW of $1.0B; and 36% ownership in Huatai Life, with expected 2013 gross premium of $0.5B)
20082003 2013F
US$ in billionsGPW1
Product Diversification – Commercial & Specialty P&C
5
Commercial & Specialty P&C GPW
Property – $3.5B
General Casualty – $3.1B
Professional Lines – $2.1B
Other Short Tail – $1.7B
Specialty Casualty – $1.5B
Total – $11.9B
29%
26%
18%
15%12%
North America Growth & Diversification
6
USAIndustrial commercial & specialty large account and upper middle market
BermudaLarge corporate
Westchester & Commercial RiskWholesale & retail specialty middle market
Private RiskHNW and miscellaneous personal lines
US$ in billions
2013F Customer Split (Total P&C)Retail & Wholesale Commercial & Personal P&C GPW
12%16%
Agriculture
Middle Market
Large Corporate
SmallCommercial
42%24%
6%
Individual (HNW + misc. personal lines)
2003 2008 2013F
$6.0
$7.8$8.6
73%
2%
16%
74%
67%
23%
8%
6%
4%
6%14%
7%
Agriculture $0.9 $2.2 $2.7
International Growth & Diversification
7
US$ in billions
2013F Customer SplitInternational Retail P&C Insurance GPW
2003 2008 2013F
61%55% 43%
27%
27%31%
12%
18%
26%
$7.0
$5.3
$3.6
CAGR 3.4%
8.0%
15.5%
Europe
Asia
Latin America
51%
19%
30%
Corporate
Personal Lines
A&H / Indiv.
27%
17%27%
29%
Emerging Markets: Rapid Growth Expected; ACE is Well Positioned in Asia & Latin America
8
Asia & Latin America GPW (% of Total)Total Global GPW
Source: Swiss Re Sigma and company disclosure.
‘12 – ’23E CAGR
+11.7%
+4.2%
+4.4%
+4.8%
Emerging Markets
Advanced Asia
Western Europe
North America
15%
21%32%
32%
ACE2003
ACE2013F
2012 – $4.6 trillion
2023E - $8.7 trillion $1.4B
$4.8B
10%
22%
Premium Growth with Underwriting Discipline
9
85%90%95%
100%105%110%115%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 AIG, Chubb, CNA, Hartford, Travelers, XL
2 Allianz, AXA, Munich Re, QBE, RSA, Zurich
ACENorth American Peers1
Global Peers2
2003-12 Average98.9%96.8%92.0%
$14.6 $16.1 $16.8 $17.4 $17.7 $19.2 $19.2 $19.5 $20.8 $21.6 $22.8
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Combined Ratio vs. Peers
Gross Premiums Written
M&A vs. Buybacks & Capital Management
10
2008 – 2013 IRR
13%
18%
Shareholder cash spent on buybacks(illustrative)
Shareholder cash spent on M&A(actual)
9/30/13 BVPS incl. Estimated Future Earnings 1
$85 $83
$5 $12 $90
$95
Shareholder cash spent onbuybacks
(illustrative)
Actual plus estimated futureearnings (illustrative)
ACE is a growth company as defined by growth in book value – our first objective is to create shareholder value by growing the company
Our long-and medium-term record demonstrates we have been good stewards of capital ROE well in excess of cost of capital Steady dividend growth with target payout ratio of 30%
Announced up to $1.5 billion target for share repurchases through 12/31/14, conditions dependent
Company has considerable capital flexibility for risk and growth opportunities going forward
No change in strategy – company will continue to capture organic growth where returns are attractive and pursue M&A opportunistically to enhance strategic position
$1.09 $1.19 $1.30 $1.50
$1.94 $2.14
$2.52
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F
Dividends per Share
24% increase expected
($0.51 to $0.63 per share quarterly)
24% increase expected
($0.51 to $0.63 per share quarterly)
M&A vs. Buybacks ACE Approach to Capital Management
1. Estimated BVPS including present value of estimated future cash flows. For Buybacks: 2014 forecasted incremental earnings from dividends saved capitalized at ACE’s forward P/E multiple, plus present value of future dividend savings assuming dividend discount model. For Actual: 2014E income from deals capitalized at ACE’s forward P/E multiple. Includes transactions from first full year of ownership.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Capital Efficiency
Operating Return on Equity vs. Peers
1 Chubb, CNA, Hartford, Travelers, XL2 Allianz, AXA, Munich Re, QBE, RSA, Zurich3 Debt to total capital as of December 31, 2012
10-Year Average14.2%12.2%9.5%
FinancialLeverage3
15.6%24.7%19.5%
5-Year Average13.3%10.7%7.8%
ACENorth American Peers1
Global Peers2
11
Shareholder Economic Value Creation
12
$19.17 $22.70 $26.02 $33.13
$40.05 $31.79
$46.42 $54.25 $57.97
$66.28
$10.26 $9.80 $8.62
$8.70 $8.61
$11.23
$11.68
$13.92 $14.25
$14.62
$0.74 $1.56 $2.46
$3.44 $4.50 $5.59
$6.78
$8.08 $9.58
$11.52
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
TangibleBVPS
Cumulative Dividends
Book ValuePer
Share
$92.42
$30.17
ACE Strategy – Shareholder Value Creation and Growth
13
Shar
ehol
der V
alue
* Comparisons distorted due to taxpayer capital injection
(1) Latest reported interim financials.
*
*
Peer Avg