Accounting for Carbon in Copenhagen | Morten Hojer
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Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
Accounting for Carbon in Copenhagen
ICARB Conference, EdinburghSeptember 5 2014
Morten HojerClimate Unit, City of Copenhagen
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London School of Economics launched report on Copenhagen as a ”green economy leader” in June 2014
2Source: LSE, Economics of Green Cities Programme (2011-2015).
Is there is an economic rationale for early action on ”green” growth in cities?
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The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (1/3)
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1990
1995
2001
2007
2013
The Stern Review (2006) argued that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs:
Without action, overall costs of climate change are equvalent to 5%-20% of world GDP each year
The impacts are irreversible and unevenly distributed; poor people in less developed countries are likely to suffer most
To avoid the worst effects of climate change about 2% of world GDP needs to be invested
From science… … to economics
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The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (2/3)
42011
“Cities are actually the healthiest, greenest, and richest places to live. New Yorkers, for instance, live longer than other Americans; heart disease and cancer rates are lower in Gotham than in the nation as a whole. More than half of America’s income is earned in twenty-two metropolitan areas. And city dwellers use, on average, 40 percent less energy than suburbanites.”
New York Times Review of Books
…to economics of urban agglomeration
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The intellectual foundation of the LSE report spans across a diversity of fields (3/3)
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… to a new ”industrial” revolution
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The state of the debate
6Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, New Climate Economy project.
NeutralGrowth and climate have
tradeoffs
Growth and climate have co-benefits
▪ Growth model too fragile to take on climate action now
▪ High energy costs will kill growth and create competitive asymmetries
▪ Climate action puts an unfair burden on the developing world
▪ There are multiple factors which affect growth in the next 3-5-10 years which are more important than climate action (which is frankly second-order)
▪ Higher resource efficiency can lead to better short-term growth/less volatility
▪ There are major co-benefits (air quality)
▪ Cleantech is an enormous innovation driver that will spillover positively to the whole economy
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Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
What is Copenhagen doing about it?
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Over the past 20 years, Copenhagen’s economy grew by 25% while simultaneously reducing GHG emissions by 40%
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Urban crisis and de-population followed by inner-city densification
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Despite a low average population density, housing and employment areas have been planned with good accessibility
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Low levels of vehicle ownership per capita
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Low time costs of journey-to-work indicate a very effective urban transport network
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Energieffektivitet i byggeriet:xxx
Copenhagen carbon neutral by 2025
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There are big challenges…
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• Carbon: From 20 pct to 100 pct reduction in 10 years • Population: +20 pct increase in 2025 • Housing: +25.000 new units• Office spaces: +2,8 mio. m2
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… and opportunities
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Potential emissions reductions of 1,2 mio. tons of CO2e have been identified…
Green mobility
Total
City administration
Energyconsumption
Energy production
▪ Biomass-based combined heat and power▪ Land and offshore wind turbines▪ Separation of plastics from waste
▪ Energy retrofitting of existing buildings▪ Low-energy new build▪ Solar PV
▪ City of Cyclists▪ Alternative fuel vehicles (electric, hydrogen)▪ Biogas and hybrid busses▪ Intelligent traffic systems (ITS)
▪ Energy efficiency in own buildings▪ New fuels in municipal vehicle fleet▪ LED street lights
Selected initiatives
New initiatives▪ New initiatives at EU-level (energy, renewables, transport)▪ New initiatives at national level (energy, transport)▪ New initiatives at city-level (construction, transport)
0,9
Million tCO2e per year
0,1
0,1
0,1
1,2
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… that require massive investments in Copenhagen 2013-2025
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Public InvestmentsCity of Copenhagen0,4 bn€
Private InvestmentsDirect Investments3,25 bn€
Private InvestmentsEnergy and Climate Investments32,8 bn€
985
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On the day the ”green economy” finally arrives
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Thank you for your attention
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MORTEN HOJERSpecial Advisor onClimate and Green Growth(+45) 23 39 34 [email protected]
www.kk.dk/climate and www.kk.dk/english