Acacia Communications Telecom Fiber Optics ACIA ...files.meetup.com/18310308/ACIA Presentation 09 14...

ACIA PresentationAcacia Communications

Telecom Fiber Optics

2016

EPS Due 10/28/16 AH

My intention with this presentation… as a student of Lee Tanner… to use DFP Sell Rules...

I bought ACIA at the 2nd attempt to BO at the $43.10 BP and it was a fast mover so I needed to study the sell rules carefully so that I wouldn’t hold on too tightly in an attempt to keep profits. I kept hearing Lee’s voice saying that the point is not to realize your gains but to hold a big winner.

I didn’t buy at the first Breakout so I didn’t experience that pain of an 7 or 8% loss. So these are my model steps to hold onto this Big Stock.

I worked with the Decline From Peak Cushion Tables all the way up and it’s been a learning experience.

This is an exercise in using the Decline From The Peak Rules, however you could use the IPO Sell Rules instead as detailed below.

Happy Trading!

ACIA IBD Stock Checkup

From 14th

IBD Industry Group Rank #1

Its group rank in July was 27

As Lee puts it..“Barn burning Fundamentals”...

From 27

From 79

From 0

Triple Digits

From 816,800

ROE + PTM73.3%In total

ACIA Base Breakout

Base 10 days or 2 weeks long

Run-up 13 days

Prior Uptrend 32%

Base 19% deep

New high RS line before price

Base does not go below first day or first week

Breaks out past prior high up 5.5%

ACIA has all the parameters of an IPO Base:

DFP is an alternative to IPO Sell Rules:

IPO Hold RulesHold until the close of the 8th week

Attempt to hold until its first decisive break below the 10 wk

Without turning it into a loss

6/16/16 Break out and added to Leaderboard

B3 $45.14B2 $44.18B1 $43.20

RS Line at new high

High volume Accumulation

B1 Pivot +.10B2 +2.5%B3 +4.5%

Thursday 6/16/16Daily ChartInitial Breakout Day $43.20 BP

Pulled back but stayed above the pivot

3 Fast days up

Note that the market is declining as it’s breaking out

Huge weekly Volume accumulation

Low volume down weeks

4 weeks up closing at or near top of range

RS Line at new high

Thursday 6/16/16Weekly Chart on day of BO

Market is rolling over

B3 $45.14B2 $44.18B1 $43.20

The day after the BO if you missed all 3 buys you have another opportunity

Friday 6/17/16 Daily ChartHolding above BP of $43.20 on day after BO

Revisited the initial BP and B2 and B3Closed the day down but above the BP

Email from Lee

...forced to sell on 6/20/16 on Failed BOOr 6/21/16 when it closed down more than 7%

Use Sell Rule #1 -8%

Sell B3 $41.53

Closed below Pivot

Monday 6/20/16Daily ChartFailed Break out

Sell B2 $40.65

Sell B1 $39.74

Tuesday 6/21/16

Use Sell Rule #1 -8%

Tuesday 6/21/16Daily ChartFailed Break out

7 down sessions after BO

Closes below low of base

Market declineOn Brexit

Some high volume down days

Monday 6/27/16Daily Chart

Market in decline on Brexit news

Lee suggests “If you were really optimistic you might have bought back this day after the FTD”

Friday 7/1/16Daily Chart

After the FTD - market is recovering and so is ACIA

According to IBD, ACIA has a new IPO base with BP of $45.85

Put it on my WL after seeing it on Michael’s Weekend Review on 7/2Watched it coming back up in the base

Closed above prior resistance of $42.00

7/7/16B2 @ $45.30

7/6/16B1 @ $43.00

Stop Loss if neededB2 $41.67

B1 $39.56

On 7/7/16 it moved too fast to get B2 earlier

Didn’t want to buy B3 as it went down

Average Cost $43.97

Wednesday 7/6/16 Daily Chart

This is where I made my first buyI hadn’t experienced the initial base failure

Since it had already broken out and was powering back up to the initial BP I bought at $43.00 - the day before the 2nd BO attempt

Buys at Initial BPA1 $45.85B3 $45.14B2 $44.18B1 $43.20

Fast recovery of BP 5 of 6 daysRS line straight up

Reverses by end of day but closes above the initial BP

Thursday 7/7/16Daily Chart

Recovers Initial BP of $43.20 and BO through the new IPO base BP of $45.85 If needed Sell Rule #1 -8%

Stops for A1 $42.18 Initial Pivot B3 $41.53 Of $43.10 B2 $40.65 B1 $39.74

Buys at new IPO baseB1 $45.85B2 $46.99

Break outOn Huge Volume

If missed B2 and B3 of the initial Pivot could buy today

B3 $45.14B2 $44.18

Could buy new BPB1 $45.85


2nd Day of BO attempt @ $45.85 BPWent through the initial Buy Zone and through the $45.85 BP

Closed at bottom of day’s range but above BP of $43.20

Friday 7/8/16Weekly Chart

Market recovers

3rd weekly attempt at BO of $43.10 IP and 2nd BP $45.85

Huge VolumeBig volume on down week

New High $47.07

Add-Ons

ACIA Add-Ons by Lee

ACIA 1-minute chart AH on Earnings Release

Day of Earnings ReleaseHigh of $73.50Last 67.70

AH for 17 minutesCould add-on at $75 to $78

8/11/16 AH $70.00 - $78.00

8/9/16 $66.43Pullback to Support at 10 dmaBreaks out above resistance

7/11/16 New BP of $45.85

Thurs 8/11/16Daily Chart

Add Ons prior to Earnings Release and After Hours

Intraday Peak$73.50

Thurs 8/11/16Weekly Chart

Day of Earnings Release AMC

Friday 8/12/16 Daily Chart Day after Earnings Release

First several minutesOpportunity to add at $84.00 to $87.00

Add On Earnings Gap Up

Support at the 10 dmaHigher highs Higher lowsOrderly fluctuations for an IPOHigh blue volume barsLow red volume bars However it opened 20%

up alreadySeemed to me too high so I watched it climb another 20%Intraday without adding

Sell Rules for ACIA

Sell Rule #3 DFP

DFP $49.39 -16%

Stop $41.48

8 Weeks Sell 8/30/16

Monday 7/11/16Daily Chart

Day 3 opens above yesterday’s close Peak $49.3913% Advance

Immediately go into DFP table

Tuesday 7/12/16Daily Chart

Peak $51.8719% Advance from Pivot

Sell Rule #3 DFP

Peak $51.87 -16%

Stop $43.57

Very VolatileNeeds room

Down 8.5% intradaySupport Day Bounced off prior resistance of $47.00

DFP $51.87 -16%Stop $43.57

Prior Support

Wednesday 7/13/16Daily Chart

Same Peak Price $51.87Still 19% Advance


New peak price of $52.63 22% AdvanceStill DFP -16% “More Decline From Peak” Details

DFP $52.63 -16%

Stop$44.20

8 weeks 8/30/16

Passed theProfit Goal $53.87$43.10 @ 25%

Hold for 8 weeks

DFP $54.90 -18%Stop 45.02


$54.90 Peak 27% Advance

Increase DFP to -18%

Sell Date 8/30/16

DFP $54.90 -18% Stop $45.02


Peak $54.9027% Advance

DFP $58.40 -19%

Stop $47.30

Monday 7/18/16 Daily Chart

New High $58.4035.5% AdvanceNow DFP of 19%

DFP $58.40 - 19%

Stop $47.30

Monday 7/18/16Weekly Chart

Peak $58.4035.4% Advance Use DFP -19%

DFP $60.90 -19%

Stop $49.32

Tuesday 7/1916Daily Chart

New Peak $60.90Now 41% AdvanceStill DFP -19%

Pullback Closed down 7.29%

Volatile - needs room

DFP $63.88 -19%Stop $51.74


New Peak Price $63.8848% Advance

Still DFP -19%

DFP $63.88 -19%

Stop $51.74


Peak $63.8848% AdvanceDFP -19%

DFP $63.88 -19%

Stop $51.74



DFP $65.50 -20%Stop $52.80

Tuesday 7/26/16Daily Chart

Peak $65.50 53% AdvanceDFP -20%(-25% Intraday)

>50% qualifies for BC rulesUnless too far above 10 week (42%)

Use DFP Cushion -20%$52.80

DFP $66.00 -20%$52.80


New Peak $66.0053% AdvanceDFP -20%

DFP $66.00 -20%$52.80


53% AdvanceDFP -20%


Day of Earnings Peak $73.5070% Advance

>60% above Initial Pivot Use Certain-Teed Cushion Guide DFP -35%

If 10 week is too low

DFP $73.50 -35%

Stop $47.77


Day after Earnings Release Up 41.31% on 446% Volume

Peak $98.75 129% AdvanceDFP -35%

Or BC Sell Ruleclose below 10 week on High volume on Friday

Earnings Gap UpAdd on $84.00 to $87.00

DFP $98.75 -35%

Stop $64.18

8/12/16 After EarningsUp 49.48% for the week 40% for the day

ACIA Weekly Chart Friday 8/12/16


Day after Earnings Release

129% Advance from Pivot

Hold under Big Cushion RulesDFP $98.75 - 35%

Too far from 10 week (88.7%)

DFP $98.75 - 35%

Stop $64.18


190% AdvanceDFP $124.90 -35%

Or BC Sell RuleDecisive Close below 10 wk on Friday

DFP $124.90 -35%

Stop $81.18

Peak $124.90

8 week sell date8/30/16


190% AdvanceDFP $124.90 -35%

Or BC Sell RuleDecisive close below 10 week on High volume on Friday

DFP $124.90 -35%

Stop $81.18

Friday 8/26/16Weekly Chart190% AdvanceDFP $124.90 -35%

Or BC Sell RuleDecisive close below 10 week on high volume on Friday close

DFP $124.90 -35%

Stop $81.18


190% AdvanceDFP $124.90 -35%

Or BC Sell Ruleclose below 10 week on High volume at Friday close

DFP $124.90 -35%

Stop $81.18


$128.73 Peak199% AdvanceDFP -35%

Or BC Sell Ruleclose below 10 week on High volume at end of week

DFP $128.73 -35%

Stop $83.67

DFP $128.73 -35%

Stop $83.67


Or BC Sell Ruleclose below 10 week on High volume at end of week

Wednesday 9/14/16Weekly Chart

199% AdvanceDFP $128.73 -35%

Or BC Sell RuleDecisive close below 10 week on High volume at Friday close

DFP $128.73 -35%

Stop $83.67

Friday, 9/2/16 Indications of a HTF formationNeeds another week or two

Possible HTF breakout?High volume break above trend line at $114.00And break to new high above Flag pole at $125.

HTF BO at $124.90 fails

IBD Big Picture 7/7/16

Buy Stops Triggered

As ACIA breaks above $25.00The possible HTF BP

HTF formation up 100% - 120%In 4 to 8 weeks and corrects up to 20 - 25%

I’ve noted that many HTF move sideways closer to the 10 week before breaking out

ACIA 2016 HTF or Sq BoxGOOGL 2004 20% CUPBethlehem Steel 1915

3rd week is higher intraday but closes lower

$128.73- $100.2822% Decline

128.73 - $103.0120% Decline

QCOM 1999 HTF

Moves over to the 10 week in 4 weeks with 3 WT

Tuesday 9/20/165th Week of possible HTF Peak $124.90

3rd Week of possible HTFPeak $128.73

StopDecisive break below 10 weekOn Friday

ACIA IBD Articles6/16/16 Industry Themes

7/7/16 Stock Analysis

7/11/16 New America

7/13/16 Technology

7/25/16 Technology

8/8/16 Technology

8/12/16 Tech Leaders

8/15/16 Technology

8/18/16 Technology

9/9/16 IPO Analysis

9/12/16 Industry Themes

IPO Stock Leaders List

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