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The International Conference on Sustainable Community Development27-29 January 2011

An assessment of the vulnerability of food security to climate change in the Hat Yai District of Songkhla Province

Parichart Visuthismajarn1, Nattaya Tannil2 Parichat Singsaktrakul3 Kamornwan Mitmusik4 and Jaruayporn Somsap5

1Research Unit of risk management and eco-tourism, Faculty of Environmental Management, Prince of Songkla University

15 Kanjanavanij Rd., Hat Yai District, Songkhla 90112 Telephone : 081 7385060

E-mail: parichart.v@psu.ac.th2,5Faculty of Environmental Management, Prince of Songkla University

15 Kanjanavanij Rd., Hat Yai District, Songkhla 90112 3Department of Mathematics and Science, Faculty of Science and Technology, Hat Yai University

125/502 Polpichai Rd., Hat Yat District, Songkhla 90112 E-mail: parichatt@hu.ac.th4Department of Geoinformatics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Hat Yai University

125/502 Polpichai Rd., Hat Yat District, Songkhla 90112 E-mail: kamornwan@hu.ac.th

Abstract The objectives of this study were 1) to assess the

vulnerability of food security to climate change in the Hat Yai

District, Songkhla Province, 2) to devise means that might lead

to solving any perceived problems. The parameters of water

way, land use, roads, business zone, wetland, hospital site and

density of population of the selected Tambons as determined from

the Geographic Information System (GIS) by using the overlay

technique were assessed for their relevance to the study. From

this study the 7 areas of high risk included Tumbons: Khlong

U Taphao , Khu Tao, Khlong Hae, Hat Yai, Khuan Lang, Kho

Hong and Phatong. The vulnerability survey was supplemented

by interviewing people in the area using a questionnaire. It was

established that the key factors associated with climate change

that would affect food security were flood, long-term drought,

severe storms and rises in sea level. The highest risk area using

the Weighted Model was Tumbon Khlong Hae. In order to cope

with the climate change it will be necessary to obtain cooperation

from every relevant stakeholders i.e. residents, Governments and

their officers, educational institutions, research workers and food

companies. Budgets supports from National authorities must be

established together with the ability to integrate work practices,

enhance their ability to adapt and cope with the impact of climate

change

Keywords: vulnerability assessment, climate change, food

security outcomes

1. Introduction The global warming, at the present day, and the climate

change are the potential world problem which can have serious

impacts on economic social and environment. However, human

activities have accumulated the heat into Earth’s atmosphere

causing climate change. In general , many systems and groups

may face risk from mentioned factors and fragile to different

grievances depending on the capacity to adapt with the change

in the future which is different from area or society with difference

local physical and economic conditions. Thus, the solution of

climate change has involved in conducting of many stakeholders

[1-2]

The area of Hat Yai District, Songkhla Province,

is approximately 764 square meter or 478,093.92 Rai. From

survey the land use of Hat Yai in 2000 E.C. found that the land

for agriculture use is 61.7 % of all district area, the important

type food crops are rice, fruits and vegetable, just 5.26 % of

harvest gaining from Hat Yai agriculture. It is not sufficient to

meet the need of population in area so it is vital to depend on

the agricultural harvest from nearby provinces [3]

Hat Yai is one of the area have been predicted to

receive the impact from climate change because of Southwest

and Northeast wind especially the heavy rain in the area

causing big flood such as the flood disaster in the year 2000 ,

with estimated cost of damage more than 1,000 million Baht.

Subsequently , the canals were built by the royal project to halt

future flood, but the rainfall has increased in rainy season

causing flood every year. The data and monitoring situation

of the El Niño / La Niña phenomenon by the Meteorological

Department has predicted that during the winter of Thailand in

. 2010-2011 it will be very cold in many areas especially in the

north and northeast and the quantity of rain will also increase

especially in the South. Also in 2100 the averaged temperature

will rise by 1-2 degrees Celsius resulting in a further increase

in the amount of rain [4-5]

Thus, this study aims to make more understanding

of the impact of climate change to the fragile system of food

security and social impacts. It is very important and necessary to

find strategies and finding suitable measure to cope with climate

change.

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The International Conference on Sustainable Community Development27-29 January 2011

2. Objectives 2.1 To study and assess the primary risk by risk

identification and to explain the risk characterization taking place

from climate change to food security in area of Hat Yai district,

Songkhla province.

2.2 To analyze the fragility of risk population in term

of food security which affect by climate change.

3. Methodology 3.1 Area boundary

It covers the area of Hat Yai District divided into 13

sub-districts as follows

1) Hat Yai 8) Tha Kham

2) Khuan Lang 9) Nam Noi

3) Khu Tao 10) Ban Phru

4) Kho Hong 11) Chalung

5) Khlong Hae 12) Phatong

6) Thung Yai 13) Khlong U Taphao

7) Thung Tam Sao

The GIS data such as water way, land use, road,

business zone, wetland, hospital site and density of population

were used as criteria to identify risk area.

3.2 Population boundary

Population means the whole household living in the

risk area in Hat Yai, Songkhla

3.2.1 The sample population

For random sampling, the quota sampling was

used.

3.3 The study tools

This research is participatory action one emphasizing

on community participation so it has to use various tools e.g. :

1) The secondary data were collected from reports

and documents from participating organizations.

2) The primary data which is the important data

for participatory action research , the data were collected

in community and community organization. The method to

obtain primary data has to use many processes such as survey,

interview, group discussion, focus group, participatory

observation and community stage etc.

3.4 Data analysis

The data of food security of the area was analyzed

by use 4 important components[6] i.e. availability, stability,

accessibility and utilization of food by communicating the risk

side to conduce policy determination easily to that people in the

community be able to understand and also adapted by involving

organizations.

4. Results 4.1 The overlay technique identified that the primary

risk areas are in 7 sub-districts i.e. Khlong U Taphao, Kho Hong,

Khlong Hae, Hat Yai, Khuan Lang, Kho Hong and Phatong shown

in figure 1

Figure 1 The area predicted risk to impact in climate change,

Hat Yai, Songkhla, using overlay technique

finding suitable measure to cope with climate change. 2. Objectives 2.1 To study and assess the primary risk by risk identification and to explain the risk characterization taking place from climate change to food security in area of Hat Yai district, Songkhla province. 2.2 To analyze the fragility of risk population in term of food security which affect by climate change. 3. Methodology

3.1 Area boundary It covers the area of Hat Yai District divided

into 13 sub-districts as follows 1) Hat Yai 8) Tha Kham 2) Khuan Lang 9) Nam Noi

3) Khu Tao 10) Ban Phru 4) Kho Hong 11) Chalung 5) Khlong Hae 12) Phatong 6) Thung Yai 13) Khlong U Taphao 7) Thung Tam Sao

The GIS data such as water way, land use, road, business zone, wetland, hospital site and density of population were used as criteria to identify risk area.

3.2 Population boundary Population means the whole household

living in the risk area in Hat Yai, Songkhla 3.2.1 The sample population For random sampling, the quota

sampling was used.

3.3 The study tools This research is participatory action one

emphasizing on community participation so it has to use various tools e.g. :

1) The secondary data were collected from reports and documents from participating organizations. 2) The primary data which is the important data for participatory action research , the data were collected in community and community organization. The method to obtain primary data has to use many processes such as survey, interview, group discussion, focus group, participatory observation and community stage etc.

3.4 Data analysis

The data of food security of the area was analyzed by use 4 important components[6] i.e. availability, stability, accessibility and utilization of food by communicating the risk side to conduce policy determination easily to that people in the community be able to understand and also adapted by involving organizations. 4. Results 4.1 The overlay technique identified that the primary risk areas are in 7 sub-districts i.e. Khlong U Taphao, Kho Hong, Khlong Hae, Hat Yai, Khuan Lang, Kho Hong and Phatong shown in figure 1

Figure 1 The area predicted risk to impact in climate change, Hat Yai, Songkhla, using overlay technique

4.2 The vulnerable area predicted to take place in risk area of Hat Yai, Songkhla

The factors causing the vulnerability were flood, long time drought, severe storm and the higher sea water level which impact food security as follows,

4.2.1 Flood The impact to food security: The insufficiency of food: the impact level

may be high because Hat Yai has less cultivated

4.2 The vulnerable area predicted to take place in

risk area of Hat Yai, Songkhla

The factors causing the vulnerability were flood, long

time drought, severe storm and the higher sea water level which

impact food security as follows,

4.2.1 Flood

The impact to food security:

The insufficiency of food: the impact level may

be high because Hat Yai has less cultivated areas which may

result in shortage of food in flood time.

The accessibility of food: food price likely to be

increased , the income from agricultural sector will be decreased.

The accessibility to food is difficult for rural and poor people.

The food distribution will not be convenient because of flood and

the damaged roads.

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The International Conference on Sustainable Community Development27-29 January 2011

The utilization of food: there is a risk from unsafe

food because of water pollution and disease. The Stability of

food: when food supply is not stable and fluctuating price, the

income of agricultural sector will fluctuate as well.

4.2.2 Long-term drought

The impact of food security:

There will be insufficient food: the cultivating food

crop and animal raising will be decreased because farmers will

unable to cultivate.

The accessibility of food: food price will likely be

increased , the income from agricultural sector will be decreased,

the shortage of popular food and high price.

The utilization of food: There are diseases

happening causing the body getting the less profit of food and

also there is changing nutrition because of the value of nutrition

change, the variety of food decreased and/or the nutritive value

decreased as well.

4.2.3 The severe storm

The impact of food security: the small scale

fishermen cannot earn a lot from fish resulting in insufficient food,

the income from selling aquatic animals decreasing and the

aquatic animals products are likely to be increased.

4.2.4 The increasing of sea level 0.5 meters

(Songkhla Lake)

The impact of food security: The area has been

lose because of the increasing of sea level and the lake water

will be more salinity. The water quality problem and less fresh

water resource will contribute to small scale fishermen, because

they will have less opportunities to fish especially in the Khu Tao

and Khlong Hae Sub-district.

4.3 The vulnerable of current agricultural security

in area of Hat Yai District, Songkhla Province

The vulnerable groups are farmers because they

have less production base and limited cultivating area, lacking

of motivation to remain be farmers and fishermen .

The vulnerable to food security happens because

of the limitation of production base resulting in food shortage,

since, the energy crop getting high price, some farmers switch

from cultivating food crops to cultivate energy crops. This will

result in less food reservation for emergency time. Capac i t y ,

farmers have limitation in cultivation because of high costs and

lack of area for cultivation.

4.4 The risk area and vulnerable group

From cluster analysis by group of Sub-district

according to the impact from climate change, it can be divided

into 3 groups from high to low impact respectively:

Group1 Khong Hae, Khu Tao, Khuan Lang and

Phatong

Group 2 Khong U taphao

Group 3 Hat Yai, Khor Hong

When analyzing to find the area by weighted Model

by using Multi-Criteria Evaluation: MCE, it found that the most

risk area is Khong Hae area.

Despite good water management such as The Royal

Project (Gamling Project) , the quantity of rain has exceeded

the capacity of all the drainage systems and caused severe

flooding in Hat Yai district in 2010 more than in any other past

year.

The Meteorological Department has predicted that the

phenomenon of La Niña in 2010 will have a big impact in the

southern region of Thailand and the quantity of rain will also

increase.

Normally, after the La Niña phenomenon during the

last part of the year it will be difficult for an immediate return

to El Niño because the high humidity it created will stay for at

least 1-2 years before El Niño will return . Thus, the preliminary

forecast for the first 5 years from now, is that Thailand will

gradually return to the El Niño condition. The drought in many

areas and severe storms than occur during the La Niña period

will have some impact on Thailand and then after 5 years from

the year 2016 – 2020 there will be a return to severe La Niña

and will be even more severe flooding than 2010. One should

remember that severe flooding occurred regularly in Hat Yai

about every 10 years.

Therefore, governments must as a priority integrate

the work of all agencies involved in water management such as

construction areas e.g. rivers , canals, irrigation systems, forest

preservation etc in preparation for The Royal Project (Gamling

Project), Buying back land from the public and leasing agricultural

land from agriculturists to cope with the impact from flooding.

5. Conclusion and recommendation 5.1 Conclusion

The factors effecting the vulnerable to climate change

that have impact to food security are flood, long time severe

drought, strong storm and the higher sea water level.

The vulnerable groups/ stakeholders are farmers, low

income people, patients, elders and children.

5.2 Recommendation

5.2.1 The governments must as a priority integrate

the work of all agencies involved in water management such as

construction areas e.g. rivers , canals, irrigation systems, forest

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The International Conference on Sustainable Community Development27-29 January 2011

preservation etc in preparation for The Royal Project (Gamling

Project), Buying back land from the public and leasing agricultural

land from agriculturists to cope with the impact from flooding.

5.2.2 Supporting the natural and environmental

awareness in the aspect of ecosystem by participating of people,

local governments and private sector from the level of national

policy, organization and local government including integration

of budget, operation and knowledge.

5.2.3 Determine impact of climate change by

promoting the research and human resource development, with

clear goals, and able to bring to negotiation and prepare to cope

with climate change.

5.2.4 Emphasis on more research study

concerning to natural and environmental management in all level

and widely passing on the knowledge to action and continuously

implementing plan

5.2.5 Supporting sustainable production and

consumption by efficiently using natural resources. Pay more

attention to environmental impact, e.g. using the measures

for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to show the efficiency of

worthwhile resources use and taking the resource to process

for sale promotion, creating value for products by dividing the

resource of each Sub-district in value addition to product brand

of each Sub-district

6. Acknowledgement This research was funded by Thailand Environmental

Institute (TEI) in 2010

7. References [1] Witoon Panyakul, Climate change: Fragile assessment and

the way to adaptation. Bangkok. April. p. 4-57. 2553.

[2] Witoon Panyakul, The cause of climate change: The truth.

Sai Yai Pheandin Foundation, Bangkok. September. p.

3-37. 2552.

[3] Hat Yai District Office. (online). Available http://www.

hatyai-sk.go.th/index.php?cmd=home (20 June 2010)

[4] Weather Center, department of meteorological

development. The La Niña surveillance 2010. [online].

Available: www.tmd.go.th/programs%5Cuploads%

5Cphenomena%5C La Niña (November)-2010.pdf (12

December 2010)

[5] Weather Center, department of meteorological development.

The prediction of climate change in the future. Thai

meteorological Department. Bangkok. September 1-129,

2552.

[6] FAO, “ Climate change and food security : A framework

document.” (online). Available www.greennet.or.th/climate/

download/FAO_CCA_ FS.pdf (20 June 2010)