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THE ADVISORY BOARD FOR DEFENCE INFORMATION
Bulletins and reports
November, 2017
1/20
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FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
ABDI (MTS)
Ministry of Defence, Helsinki 2017
Finns̀ opinios on foreing and security policy, national defence and securityThe Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI)
ABDI Bulletins and reports November, 2017
Ministry of Defence
ISBN print: 978-951-25-2968-1
ISBN PDF: 978-951-25-2969-8
Layout: Government Administration Unit, Publications
Text in English Katri Suvanto, Government Administration Department
Helsinki 2017
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FOREWORD
A survey commissioned by the Advisory Board for Defence Information (ABDI) ex-plored the opinions of Finnish people on Finnish foreign and security policy and on defence policy. The survey also included questions on factors relating to safety and citizens’ sense of security pertaining to developments concerning the next five years, on factors giving rise to concern as well as on confidence over the future of the European Union and Finland. Altogether 20 questions were asked, two of which for the first time.
Commissioned by the ABDI, the survey was carried out by market research compa-ny Taloustutkimus Oy. The study was done as a part of omnibus research carried out in the form of personal interviews. A total of 1,001 individuals were interviewed. The target group of the study comprised the entire population between the ages of 15 and 79, with the exception of the Åland Islands. The sample was formed by quota sampling in which the target group’s quotas were the distribution of age, gender, province and municipality. The interviews were conducted at 87 localities, 52 of which were cities and the remaining 35 other municipality types. The sample was weighted to match the target group. The weighted N values correspond to the pop-ulation aged 15 to 79 in thousands (SVT 31.12.2016).
The interviews were conducted from 22 September to 10 October, 2017. The error of margin is ± three point two (3.2) percentage points.
When interpreting background variables related to party affiliation, it must be tak-en into account that the margin of error regarding the large parties is smaller, which enables the collection of more reliable information on them compared to smaller parties whose supporters are numerically fewer in the sample.
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The following question was asked: ‘Which party would you vote for, if parliamen-tary elections were held now?’ Of all of the respondents, 67 per cent (673 persons) revealed their party affiliation, while 33 per cent (328) declined to do so. In 2016 the respective numbers were 65 per cent and 35 per cent.
The report comprises a text section with illustrating figures that also present the time sequence of the previously asked questions. These illustrations were prepared by Taloustutkimus Oy. Some of the questions represent a continuous sequence since 1964. The questions were drawn up by the research branch and work branch of the ABDI. The research branch compiled the report for the work branch.
The data from this survey, like the previous surveys, are stored in the Finnish Social Science Data Archive at the University of Tampere (www.fsd.uta.fi).
The ABDI’s survey reports are available in Finnish, Swedish and English on the AB-DI’s home page (www.defmin.fi/mts).
In Sweden, the ‘Myndighet för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap’ (MSB) conducts similar surveys. The most recent report was published in January, 2017. It can be accessed here: https://www.msb.se/Sok/?query=opinionsunders%c3%b6knin-gen+2017
Also in Norway, the ‘Folk og Forsvar’ conducts annual surveys on security and de-fence policy; their most recent report was published in September, 2017. It can be accessed here: http://www.folkogforsvar.no/meningsmalinger/meningsmalin-ger-2017.
The survey reports published by the ABDI are in the public domain. When referring to them, reference must be made stating that the data come from a survey con-ducted by the ABDI.
Contents
Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Confidence in the management of foreign policy has increased ................................................................... 9
Why do respondents think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed? ..................................................... 9
Why do respondents think that Finnish foreign policy is poorly managed? ................................................. 10
Support for military non-alignment has remained unchanged ....................................................................... 10
Support for membership in NATO has slightly fallen ......................................................................................... 11
Confidence in Finland’s future ................................................................................................................................... 12
Over half of the respondents hold that their confidence in the EU is unchanged ....................................... 13
The UN and the EU are believed to contribute positively to Finland’s security ............................................ 14
Finland’s defence policy is widely believed to be well managed..................................................................... 15
General conscription enjoys strong support ........................................................................................................ 15
Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system ....................................................................... 18
Support for increasing defence appropriations and keeping the current level ......................................... 19
The will to defend the nation remains unchanged ............................................................................................ 19
Independence is the most important reason for defending Finland by military means ........................... 22
The will to defend the nation is strong at the personal level ........................................................................... 22
Support for Finland’s military cooperation ............................................................................................................ 23
Compared to men, women envisage the future as more insecure ................................................................... 23
The global refugee situation and international terrorism cause the greatest concern.............................. 24
Preparedness for different threats............................................................................................................................ 25
Preparedness for acts of terrorism against Finland is seen as the key issue ................................................. 26
Figures 1 - 45 .............................................................................................................................. 27
The Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019 .......................................................................................................... 72
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IntroductionCitizens of the 100-year-old Finland have confidence that foreign and defence policy will be well managed, and they want to defend their country, continue to support general conscription, and support defence cooperation and military non-alignment. They are most concerned about the world’s refugee situation, international terror-ism and climate change. Future is perceived as fairly insecure. Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries and the EU and Finland`s membership in the European Union is believed to improve Finland’s security.
Confidence in the management of foreign policy has grown
Three out of four find that Finland’s foreign policy is well managed. When asked why they think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed the most commonly re-ceived answer is that good relations are maintained to all countries, and the neigh-bouring countries and Russia in particular were mentioned. Finland’s calm, dispas-sionate approach towards getting things done and working with others was also appreciated. Respondents commended the activities of the President.
Those who thought that Finland’s foreign policy has been poorly managed most of-ten justified their view with immigration, refugee and asylum issues and the Euro-pean Union’s measures.
The will to defend the country is unchanged - independence is the most important reason for defending Finland by military means
Seven out of ten or 72 per cent think that Finns should defend themselves by mili-tary means in all situations even if the outcome seemed uncertain
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Finland’s independence was given as the most important factor for willingness to defend the country.
General conscription enjoys strong support
Eight out of ten or 81 per cent support the current conscription system in Finland. Nine per cent are in favour of abolishing general conscription and instituting pro-fessional armed forces.
Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system
Two out of three support the current conscription system as Finland’s defence solu-tion. Sixteen per cent of the respondents are in favour of gender-equal conscription for men and women alike.
Support for military non-alignment has remained unchanged
Six out of ten support Finland’s military non-alignment. This question has been asked in the ABDI surveys since 1996 and support for military non-alignment has varied from 79% (in 2001) to 54% (in 2015).
Support for membership in NATO has slightly fallen
Slightly over one in five, 22%, replied in the affirmative to the question, ‘Should Fin-land seek membership in NATO?’ A year ago one in four or 25% supported member-ship in NATO. The support for membership in NATO has varied from 30% (in 2014) to 18% (in 2012) in the ABDI surveys.
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Confidence in the management of foreign policy has increased
Three out of four or 73 per cent of the respondents consider that Finland’s foreign policy is well managed (70% in 2016); 73 percent (72%) of men and 72 per cent (68%) of women. Younger people are more critical than older age groups. Of those younger than 24 years of age, 57 per cent (61%) think that foreign policy is well managed; of the 25 to 34 years of age, 63 per cent (64%); of the 35 to 49 years of age, 78 per cent (63%); and of those older than 50 years of age, 80 per cent (78%) were of this opinion.
Of the supporters of the Centre Party, 91 per cent (85% in 2016) think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed; 87 per cent (83%) of the Coalition Party; 82 per cent (71%) of the Green Party; 75 per cent (75%) of the Social Democratic Party (SDP); 71 per cent (69%) of the Left Alliance; and 50 per cent of the Finns Party supporters (42%) agree.
One out of five or 20 per cent of the respondents consider that Finland’s foreign policy is poorly managed (24% in 2016); 22 percent (24%) of men and 18 per cent (24%) of women agree. This opinion is shared as follows: of those younger than 25 years of age, 29% (26%); of the 25 to 34 years of age, 25% (29%); of the 35 to 49 years of age, 19% (32%); and of those older than 50 years of age, 16% (18%).
Of the supporters of the Finns Party, 42 percent (52% in 2016) think that Finnish for-eign policy is poorly managed as do 28 percent (27%) of the supporters of the Left Alliance; 23 percent (25%) of the SDP; 11 percent (17%) of the Coalition Party; eight percent (25%) of the Green Party; and 3 percent (10%) of the Centre Party support-ers agree. (Figures 1 and 2)
Why do respondents think that Finnish foreign policy is well managed?
Each respondent argued his or her viewpoint with a maximum of three factors. Of those who regarded foreign policy as well managed, 598 persons gave reasons for their opinions; the total number of reasons was 1080.
There was, on the whole, satisfaction with the way Finland’s foreign policy has been managed. Good relations are maintained to all countries, and the neighbouring countries and Russia in particular were mentioned. Finland’s calm, dispassionate ap-proach towards getting things done and working with others was also appreciated.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Especially the President was praised for the good management of foreign policy; 187 comments. The Minister for Foreign Affairs received 40 favourable comments. Good relations with the neighbouring countries and other countries; 72 comments Good relations with Russia 74 comments. It was also pointed out that Finland is not involved in a war or a conflict and Finland has not been attacked; 68 comments. Fifty-five respondents commented on the following: Finland’s calm and diplomatic way to deal with matters, Finland continues to be aligned with its chosen policy and is cooperative.
Why do respondents think that Finnish foreign policy is poorly managed?
Each respondent argued his or her viewpoint with a maximum of three factors. Of those respondents who regarded foreign policy as poorly managed, 145 persons gave reasons for their opinions; the total number of reasons was 266. Immigration, refugee and asylum issues received 40 comments. There were also views that Fin-land’s immigration policy has been too strict. Finland’s membership in the EU and the EU policies received 25 comments.
There were 17 comments according to which the poorly managed foreign policy is caused by Finland’s lack of clear and active own policy. Nineteen comments were directed at the Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Favouring too much the USA and the West; favouring too much Russia, both views received about 10 comments
General discontent with decision making also explained the view on poorly run for-eign policy. Other reasons included terrorism, economic and trade policies, climate policy, social policy and agricultural policy.
Support for military non-alignment has remained unchanged
Should Finland continue the policy of military non-alignment or seek membership in a military alliance? More than half of the respondents, 58% (578 % in 2016) support Finland’s military non-alignment; 59% (57%) of men and 58% (58%) of women. Those aged under 25 years of age hold more critical views; 49% (50%) support military non-alignment while in other age groups the support is 60% (51%, 63% and 60%).
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Of the Finns Party supporters, 70% (74% in 2016) are in favour of military non-align-ment as are 69% (56% and 67%) of the supporters of the Centre Party and of the SDP; 68% (66%) of the Left Alliance; 52% (60%) of the Green Party; and 37% (35%) of the Coalition Party supporters agree.
This question has been asked in the ABDI surveys since 1996 and support for mili-tary non-alignment has varied from 79% (in 2001) to 54% (in 2015).
Twenty-nine percent (31% in 2016) of the respondents support membership in a military alliance; 32% (36%) of men and 27% (26%) of women. Thirty-five percent (31%) of the under 25 years of age share this view; 29% (29% and 30%) of those over 35 years of age; and 25% (36%) of the 25 to 34 years of age agree. Fifty-two percent (60%) of the Coalition Party supporters; 31% (29%) of the Green Party sup-porters; 29% (32%) of the Left Alliance; 26% (27%) of the SDP; 24% (19%) of the Finns Party; and 19% (30%) of the Centre Party supporters agree.
The support for military alliance has varied from 34% (in 2004 and 2014) to 16% (in 2001) in the ABDI surveys.
Twelve percent (12% in 2016) have no opinion; 16% (16%) of women and 9% (7%) of men. (Figures 3 and 4)
Support for membership in NATO has slightly fallen
Twenty-two per cent (25% in 2016) of the respondents answered in the affirmative to the question ‘Should, in your opinion, Finland seek NATO membership?’; twen-ty-six percent (30%) of men and 18% (20%) of women. The most critical age group is the 25 to 34-year-old; 13% (27%) replied in the affirmative.
Of the Coalition Party supporters, 44% (53% in 2016) support membership in NATO as do 26% (24%) of the Green Party supporters; 20% (29%) of the Centre Party; 16% (23%) of the Left Alliance; 15% (16%) of the SDP; and 10% (25%) of the Finns Party supporters agree.
The support for membership in NATO has varied from 30% (in 2014) to 18% (in 2012) in the ABDI surveys.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Sixty-two percent of the respondents hold a negative view on seeking membership in NATO (61% in 2016); 63% (62%) of men and 61% (60%) of women share this view. Eighty-one percent (75%) of the Left Alliance supporters think this way, as do 73% (77%) of the SDP supporters; 72% (73%) of the Finns Party; 70% (57%) of the Centre Party; 49% (62%) of the Green Party; and 41% (33%) of the Coalition Party support-ers agree.
Seventeen percent (14% in 2016) have no opinion; 22% (20%) of women and 12% (8%) of men. (Figures 5 and 6)
Confidence in Finland’s future
This year the following was asked as a new question: How is your confidence in Finland’s future; has your confidence grown stronger, become weaker or has it re-mained unchanged?
Two out of three or 65 percent says that their confidence in Finland’s future has re-mained unchanged; 67% of men and 64% of women.
Seventy-seven percent of the supporters of the SDP think this way; 71% of those of the Green Party; 68% of the Centre Party; 65% of the Left Alliance; 64% of the Coali-tion Party; and 60% of the Finns Party.
One out of four or 25% have weakened confidence in Finland’s future; 30% of wom-en and 20% of men. Of those younger than 25 years of age, 24% have this opinion; of the 25 to 34 years of age, 36%; of the 35 to 49 years of age, 22%; and of those old-er than 50 years of age, 23%.
Thirty-eight percent of the Finns Party supporters think this, as do 35% of the sup-porters of the Left Alliance; 21% of the Green Party; 17% of the Centre Party; and 15% of the supporters of the Coalition Party and of the SDP.
Nine out of every hundred respondents think that their confidence in Finland’s fu-ture has grown stronger; 12% of men and 5% of women share this view. Nineteen percent of the supporters of the Coalition Party take this view, as do 15% of the Centre Party; 8% of the Green Party and of the SDP; 1% of the Finns Party; and none of the supporters of the Left Alliance. (Figure 7)
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Over half of the respondents hold that their confidence in the EU is unchangedThe question, ‘How is your confidence in the future of the European Union; has your confidence grown stronger, become weaker or has it remained unchanged?’ was asked for the third time. Over one half, 58% (45% in 2016) of the respondents have retained their confidence in the future of the European Union; 39% of men and 51% of women. Of those younger than 25 years of age, 70% (56 %) feel this way; of the 35 to 49 years of age, 59% (46%); of those older than 50 years of age, 55% (40 %); and of the 25 to 34 years of age, 53% (46%) share this view.
Sixty-four per cent (43% in 2016) of the supporters of the SDP think this way; 62% of the Centre Party and of the Left Alliance (48% and 37% respectively); 61% (46%) of the Green Party; 58% (50%) of the Coalition Party; and 45% (29%) of the Finns Party supporters agree.
Slightly more than a third, 37% (52% in 2016) of the respondents feel that their con-fidence in the future of the European Union has weakened; 38% (57%) of men and 37% (47%) of women. Forty-three percent (52%) of the 25 to 34 years of age share this view, as do 39% (52%) of those over 35 years of age; and 22% (35%) of those younger than 25 years of age.
Fifty-three per cent (69% in 2016) of the supporters of the Finns Party think this way; 38% (45%) of the Centre Party; 37% (63%) of the Left Alliance; 34% (56%) of the SDP; and 33% (46% and 53% respectively) of the supporters of the Coalition Party and of the Green Party agree.
Three percent (2% in 2016) are of the opinion that confidence in the European Un-ion has grown stronger. (Figure 8)
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
The UN and the EU are believed to contribute positively to Finland’s securityA number of actors are listed and respondents are asked about their impact on Finland’s security. These include: UN, EU, OSCE, NATO, the United States, China and Russia.
Sixty-one percent (61% in 2016) of the respondents regard the UN as having a pos-itive impact on Finland’s security; 60% (58%) think this way regarding the EU; 44% (38%) regarding the OSCE.
Twenty-five percent (25% in 2016) regard NATO as having a negative impact on Fin-land’s security while 24% (26%) regard its impact as positive. Just under a third or 30% (24%) of the respondents see NATO’s impact as both positive and negative.
Thirty-five percent (28% in 2016) of the respondents see the impact of the United States as both positive and negative while 22% (19%) see it as negative and 16% (21%) see it as positive.
As to Russia, 37% (50% in 2016) see its impact as negative; 31% (24%) see its impact as both positive and negative while 14% (6%) see its impact as positive.
Less than one half of the respondents, 44% (55% in 2016) think that China has no impact on Finland’s security. Thirteen percent (8%) see China’s impact as positive. One out of five or 22% (17%) sees its impact as both positive and negative while 11% (10%) sees its impact as negative. (Figures 9 and 10)
Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries and the EU is believed to improve Finland’s security
The question lists eight different factors which the respondents assess, based on whether they believe that they improve or weaken the security of Finland and the Finnish people or have no effect at all. Factors that are believed to improve security:
Finland’s participation in Nordic defence cooperation, 83% (79% in 2016);
Finland’s participation in the EU’s common defence, 70% (62% in 2016);
Finland’s membership in the European Union, 62% (54% in 2016);
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Finland’s increasing international economic interaction, 52% (48% in 2016);
Finland’s participation in international crisis management duties, 51% (46% in 2016);
Finland’s military non-alignment, 46% (45% in 2016);
Finland’s possible NATO membership, 29% (32% in 2016);
The increasing share of foreign ownership in the Finnish economy, 8% (7% in 2016)
(Figures 11, 12, 13 and 14)
Finland’s defence policy is widely believed to be well managed
Four out of five, 79% (79% in 2016), consider that Finland’s defence policy is well managed; 81% (76%) of women and 79% (81%) of men hold this view. Of the sup-porters of the Coalition Party, 90 per cent (82% in 2016) think that Finnish defence policy is well managed; 87 per cent (87%) of the Centre Party; 83 per cent (81%) of the Green Party; 79 per cent (78%) of the SDP; and 76 per cent of the Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (78% and 79% respectively) agree.
Thirteen per cent (16% in 2016) of the respondents consider that Finland’s defence policy is poorly managed; 16% (16%) of men and 10% (15 %) of women. This view is shared by twenty-one per cent of the Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters (23% and 14% respectively); 17% (22%) of the SDP; 9% (17%) of the Coalition Party; eight per cent (14%) of the Green Party; and 6% (5%) of the Centre Party supporters agree. (Figures 15 and 16)
General conscription enjoys strong support
Eight out of ten or 81% (79% in 2016) support the current conscription system in Finland; 81% (80 %) of men and 80% (79 %) of women. The highest support for this comes from those older than 50 years of age, 88% (90%); of those younger than 25 years of age, 77% (76 %) support the current conscription system; 76% (68%) of the 35 to 49 years of age; and of the 25 to 34 years of age 71% (69%) agree.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Ninety-seven per cent (92% in 2016) of the supporters of the Centre Party support the current conscription system; 84% (76% and 74% respectively) of the supporters of the Coalition Party and of the Finns Party; 77% (89%) of the SDP; and 67% (59% and 67% respectively) of the supporters of the Green Party and of the Left Alliance agree.
To reduce selectively the number of those receiving military training is supported by 9% (11% in 2016) of the respondents; 10% of men and 11% of women. Of the SDP supporters 17% (7%) agree, as do 16% (22%) of the supporters of the Left Alli-ance; 13% (19%) of the supporters of the Green Party; 8% (16%) of the Coalition Par-ty; 7% (11%) of the Finns Party; and 2% (2%) of the supporters of the Centre Party share this view.
Nine per cent (9% in 2016) of the respondents would discontinue general conscrip-tion altogether and institute fully professional armed forces; 8% (10%) of men and 9% (8%) of women agree. Four percent (3%) of those over 50 years of age share this view; 12% (13%) of those under 25; and 14% (11% and 16%) of those 25 to 49 years of agree. Eighteen percent (19%) of the Green Party supporters are in favour of this model; 16% (10%) of the Left Alliance; 8% (7% and 15% respectively) of the Coali-tion Party and of the Finns Party; and 6% (4%) of the supporters of the SDP agree while none of the supporters of the Centre Party do (0%). (Figures 17 and 18)
Figure 18A, support for the current system among men and women in 2003-2017.
Figure 18B, support for the current system among young people under the age of 25 and among the 25 to 34 years of age in 2003-2017.
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Figure 18A ja 18B. General conscription
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"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
Figure 18A. Retain the current system
%
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Figure 18B. Retain the current system
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Conscription is seen as the basis for Finland’s defence system
The ABDI asked last year, for the first time, what Finland’s defence system should be based on; the alternatives are as follows: 1) a present-kind of system where men are subject to general conscription and women can serve on a voluntary basis; 2) gen-eral conscription for men and women alike; 3) voluntary military service for men and women, and 4) fully professional armed forces.
Two thirds or 65% (69% in 2016) support the current conscription system in Fin-land; 63% (69%) of men and 66% (68%) of women. Of those over 50 years of age, 70% (75%) think this way; of the 35 to 49 years of age 65% (68%); of those younger than 25 years of age 57% (65%); and of the 25 to 34 years of age 56% (55%) agree. Eighty-seven percent (83%) of the supporters of the Centre Party; 73 % (78%) of the Coalition Party; 68% (65%) of the Finns Party; 61% (79%) of the SDP; 55% (56%) of the Left Alliance; and 41% (47%) of the supporters of the Green Party share this view.
Sixteen percent (11% in 2016) of the respondents support general conscription for men and women alike; 18% (11%) of men and 15% (11%) of women. Twenty-eight percent (14%) of the supporters of the Green Party; 17% (18%) of the Left Alliance; 16% (9%) of the Coalition Party; 15% (12%) of the SDP; 14% (8%) of the Finns Party; and 8% (7%) of the Centre Party supporters agree.
Eleven percent (14% in 2016) of the respondents are in favour of general conscrip-tion for men and women alike; 10% (13%) of men and 11% (15%) of women. Of the Green Party supporters 22% (28%) think this way and 17% (6%) of the SDP support-ers agree; 12% (21%) of the Left Alliance; 6% (8%) of the Coalition Party; 5% (14%) of the Finns Party; and 2% (6%) of the Centre Party supporters agree.
Seven percent (6% in 2017) support fully professional armed forces; 8% (6%) of men and 7% (6%) of women. (Figure 19)
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Support for increasing defence appropriations and keeping the current level Nearly half, 47%, of the respondents think that defence appropriations should be increased (47% in 2016); 51% (53%) of men and 44% (40%) of women. Older age groups are more favourable towards increasing defence appropriations than younger ones. Of those over 50 years of age, 51% (56%) support an increase as do 48% (43%) of the 35 to 49 years of age; 38% (37%) of the 25 to 34 years of age; and 42% (38%) of those under 25 years of age share this view.
Of the Centre Party and Coalition Party supporters, 60% (47% and 64% in 2016) are in favour of an increase; 55% (59%) of the Finns Party; 41% (53%) of the SDP; 32% (28%) of the Green Party; and 28% (33%) of the Left Alliance supporters agree.
Forty percent (41% in 2016) are in favour of keeping defence appropriations on the current level; 41% (45%) of women and 38% (36%) of men.
Of the Left Alliance supporters, 53% (45%) think they should be kept on the current level, as do 48% (46%) of the Green Party supporters; 42% (43%) of the SDP; 37% (48%) of the Centre Party; 35% (26%) of the Finns Party; and 34% (30%) of the Coali-tion Party supporters agree.
Eight percent (9% in 2016) support cutting defence appropriations; 9% (9%) of men and 7% (8%) of women. Of the Left Alliance supporters 17% (18%) think this way, as do 13% (3% and 22%) of the SDP and Green Party supporters; 6% (15%) of the Finns Party; 5% (5%) of the Coalition Party; and 3% (1%) of the Centre Party supporters agree. (Figures 20 and 21)
The will to defend the nation remains unchanged
Seven out of ten or 72% think that Finns should defend themselves by military means in all situations even if the outcome seemed uncertain (71% in 2016). Seven-ty-nine percent of men (79%) and 66% of women (64%) share this view.
Eighty-two percent (84% in 2016) of the Finns Party supporters answered in the af-firmative as did 80% (81%) of the Coalition Party supporters; 73% (79%) of the Cen-tre Party; 68% (77%) of the SDP; 67% (68%) of the Left Alliance; and 65% (52%) of the Green Party supporters agree.
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ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
One in five, 22% (21% in 2016) think that Finns should not defend themselves with military means in all situations; 25% (25%) of women and 19% (16%) of men. Younger age groups answer in the negative more often than older age groups. Of those younger than 25 years of age, 29% (27%) answered in the negative as did 28% (31%) of the 25 to 34 years of age; 23% (19%) of the 35 to 49 years of age; and 17% (16%) of those older than 50 years of age.
Of the Green Party supporters, 28% (39% in 2016) answer in the negative as do 25% (16%) of the SDP supporters; 24% (15% and 24%) of the Centre Party and Left Alli-ance; 18% (14%) of the Coalition Party; and 15% (9%) of the Finns Party supporters agree. (Figures 22 and 23)
Figure 23A, the will to defend the country among men and women in 2003-2017.
Figure 23B, the will to defend the country for the youngest age group in 2003-2017.
21
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 23A ja 23 B. The will to defend the nation
50
60
70
80
90
100
"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
Figure 23A. Yes -answers%
50
60
70
80
90
100
Figure 23B. Yes -answers%
Autumn 2003
Autumn 2004
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2006
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
Whole population Women Men
Whole population Under 25 years 25-34 years
Autumn 2003
Autumn 2004
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2006
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017
22
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Independence is the most important reason for defending Finland by military meansIn the 2017 survey the ABDI asked half of the respondents to give reasons, in their own words, why Finland should be defended with military means. The other half chose reasons from given alternatives. The list included territorial integrity, Finn-ish democracy, Finnish education and welfare system, Finnishness, Finland’s inde-pendence, equality, freedom of religion, no reason The respondent was allowed to choose no more than three the most important reasons.
Finland’s independence was given as the most important factor for willingness to defend the country (83%); number two was territorial integrity (60%) and number three was Finnish democracy (43%). These were followed by Finnish education and welfare system, and equality (both 25%), Finnishness (22%), freedom of religion (12%), and no reason (1%).
The previous time for polling the question was in 2007. As there were more alterna-tives in 2007 the results are not directly comparable. It can be noted, however, that the reasons given this year and ten years ago are highly similar. (Figure 24)
The most important reasons, given in own words, were Finland’s independence (216), own country, home (127), Finnish democracy, freedom, equality (72).
A total of 417 respondents answered, in their own words, why Finland should be de-fended with military means in all situations even if the outcome looked uncertain.
The will to defend the nation is strong at the personal level
Eighty-seven percent (87% in January 2016) answer in the affirmative to the ques-tion, ‘Would you be ready to take part in national defence duties to the best of your abilities and skills?’ Ninety percent % of men (91%) and 84% of women (83%) agree.
Ninety-four percent (88% in January 2016) of the Green Party supporters answered in the affirmative as did 93% (93%) of the Finns Party supporters; 92% (93%) of the Coalition Party; 88% (84%) of the SDP; 83% (89%) of the Centre Party; and 75% (79%) of the Left Alliance supporters agree.
23
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Ten percent (11% in January 2016) of the respondents answer in the negative to the question; 13% (14%) of women and 8% (8%) of men.
Of the Left Alliance supporters, 23% (19% in January 2016) answer in the negative, as do 15% (8%) of the Centre Party supporters; 10% (15%) of the SDP; 7% (6%) of the Finns Party; 6% (7%) of the Coalition Party; and 4% (11%) of the Green Party supporters agree. (Figures 25 and 26)
Support for Finland’s military cooperation
The question about Finland’s military cooperation with the Nordic countries, the EU and NATO has been asked in the ABDI surveys since 2012 while the question about cooperation with Sweden was included in 2014, and Finland’s military coop-eration with the United States in 2016.
Ninety-four percent (94% in 2016) of the respondents take a positive view both on military cooperation with Sweden and on military cooperation with all the Nordic countries.
Eighty-nine percent take a positive view on military cooperation in the European Union (87% in 2016). Sixty-one percent (60%) of the respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with NATO while 32% (33%) are opposed to it.
Fifty-nine percent (64% in 2016) of the respondents take a positive view on military cooperation with the United States while slightly more than a third, 35% (30%), are opposed to it. (Figures 27-32)
Compared to men, women envisage the future as more insecure
Six out of ten, 60% (59% in 2016) believe that Finland and Finns will live in a more insecure world for the next five years; sixty-eight percent of women (66 %) and 52% of men (53%) feel this way.
One out of four or 25% (27% in 2016) see no difference to the present situation; 29% (29%) of men and 20% (24%) of women think this way.
24
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Fourteen percent (13% in 2016) of the respondents believe in a more secure future; 18% (17%) of men and 10% (10%) of women. (Figures 33 and 34)
The global refugee situation and international terrorism cause the greatest concern
Since 2004 the ABDI has asked whether a number of phenomena and factors pose much, some, little or no concern at all about the future. This year the list includes 19 different factors, two of which are new: development in the European Union and development in the United States.
These factors pose much or some concern:
The world’s refugee situation 83% (85% in 2016);
International terrorism 81% (75% in 2016);
Climate change 75% (71% in 2016);
Politically extremist movements 72% (74% in 2016);
The employment situation in Finland 71% (84% in 2016);
Racism 69% (70% in 2016);
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction 68% (64% in 2016);
Social inequality in Finland 67% (69% in 2016);
Economic outlook in Europe 65% (75% in 2016);
Religious extremist movements 64% (62% in 2016);
The situation in Syria 64% (73% in 2016);
Security situation in the Baltic Sea area 64% (66% in 2016);
Development in the United States 63% (Included for the first time);
Threats, in other words cyber threats against information networks 63% (60%)
Development in Russia 62% (72% in 2016);
The number of asylum seekers in Finland 62% (61% in 2016);
The growing numbers of migrants in Finland 61% (61% in 2016);
Development in the European Union 61% (61% in 2016) (Included for the first time);
The situation in Turkey 49% (57% in 2016);
The situation in Ukraine 43% (59% in 2016);
(Figures 35-39)
25
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Preparedness for different threatsThe ABDI asked ten years ago, for the first time, about preparing for different threats. The current list includes 12 different threats and the respondents assess the level of preparedness; the percentage indicates how well Finland is prepared for a specific threat:
Contagious diseases, epidemics, well prepared for, 84% (84% in 2016).
Disasters and major accidents, well prepared for, 80% (80% in 2016).
Various environmental threats (floods, oil spills, transport of hazardous sub-stances), well prepared for, 79% (80% in 2016).
Armed attack, well prepared for, 76% (70% in 2016).
The availability of energy, well prepared for, 72% (65% in 2016).
Climate change, well prepared for, 61% (57% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 34% (38%).
Political pressure from abroad, well prepared for, 55% (52% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 33% (39%).
Terrorism, well prepared for, 53% (59% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 45% (37%).
Cyber threats against information networks, well prepared for, 50% (51%) in 2016). Poorly prepared for, 42% (42%).
Economic pressure from abroad, well prepared for, 49% (44% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 38% (46%).
International crime, well prepared for, 49% (51% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 46% (45%).
Economic crises, well prepared for, 42% (34% in 2016); poorly prepared for, 52% (61%).
(Figures 41, 42 and 43)
26
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Preparedness for acts of terrorism against Finland is seen as the key issue
The question lists ten different threat scenarios for which Finland should primari-ly prepare for, according to the respondents, in the next decade. The respondents chose threat scenarios which they regarded as the most important, the second most important and the third most important.
The comments
A terrorist act against Finland (54%)
Growth in international crime (42%)
The deep, global crisis faced by the international economy’s (32%)
Environmental catastrophe caused by global warming (29%)
Causing damage to data transmission system with the aim to paralyse society (29%)
A regional crisis near Finland, caused by social problems or an environmental catastrophe (25%)
An armed conflict in Finland’s neighbourhood (24%)
Nuclear catastrophe in Finland or in its neighbourhood (22%)
An armed attack against Finland (17%)
Russia's military measures against Finland (17%)
(Figures 44 and 45)
27
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
9
413
577
12
88
10
7
8
69
10
79
11
213
16550
19
64
6860
52567168
596869
58
68
636266
646662
70477170777154
7
104
141245
876
10
5
884
768
5822
1012
16
1518
26201612
201512
19
17
171816
181515
2318
197
2420
4
34
3534
523
6
3
633
444
11134145
Figure 1. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years?"
%
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
28
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
7370637073757680817984818284867987898189858877727173877873736279677585909193959493938786848585878696958790
76554555453542463462547686146456977643343368
1067772155
20243225232119151616131413141114107
139
109
1621202213182124331423188554425476698672485
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Figure 2. The conduct of Finnish foreign policy
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finnish foreign policy been conducted in recent years?"
In the year 1964In the year 1969In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1972In the year 1973In the year 1974In the year 1975In the year 1978In the year 1979In the year 1980In the year 1981In the year 1982In the year 1983In the year 1984
January 1986December 1986
In the year 1987In the year 1988In the year 1989
May 1990November 1990In the year 1991In the year 1992In the year 1993In the year 1994
June 1995November 1995In the year 1996In the year 1997
October 1998June 1999
November 1999July 2000
December 2000Spring 2001
Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Well Cannot say Poorly
29
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
58
5859
49606060
615657
57
53665757
556260
69703769526857
12
169
16151111
111513
11
1311128
111215
126
126
172
23
29
2732
35252929
282930
32
34233034
342625
19245226312921
Figure 3. Military alignment or non-alignment
"In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Remainnon-aligned
Cannotsay
Aim toally itself
30
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
5857545867686967615869675861657079686671687460646769
121212887
1068
113795
1185
1098
118
11108
11
2931333425252127313127263234242216212520211829272520
Figure 4. Military alignment or non-alignment
"In your opinion, should Finland remain militarily non-aligned or should Finland aim to ally itself militarily?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
In the year 1996In the year 1997
July 1998October 1998
June 1999November 1999
July 2000December 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Remainnon-aligned
Cannotsay
Aim toally itself
31
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 5. Nato membership
"In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in Nato?"
22
1826
21132324
202025
18
27
131927
261820
20104415261615
17
2212
21181914
162017
24
18
131614
181617
10181612254
22
62
6163
59695862
646059
58
55
746559
566764
70724173498163
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Yes Cannot say No
32
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 6. Nato membership
"In your opinion, should Finland seek membership in Nato?"
22252730211820252828262628
171415101010107
10125
109
62615860707170686260696563
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Yes Cannot say No
33
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 7. Con�dence in Finland's future
"Describe the con�dence you feel about Finland's future. Has it increased, decreased or remained the same?"
9
512
101197
89
10
4
13
64
12
1167
151
198809
65
6467
65526869
646169
64
61
656270
627163
68606477716552
1
11
0111
120
2
1
100
013
0110000
25
3020
24362223
272820
30
24
283318
262327
17381515213539
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
StrengthenedRemainedthe same
Cannotsay
Weakened
34
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 8. Con�dence in the future of the European Union
"What kind of con�dence do you have in the future of the European Union? In the last two years, has your con�dence been strengthened, weakened or has it remained the same?"
32
8
12
1
5845
53
3752
39
3
24
4324
244
1
6
414
422
0192614
58
5858
70535955
565960
56
58
566160
565959
62455864616256
1
21
4002
220
2
1
211
022
0100102
37
3738
22433939
403436
41
35
393735
393736
38533334333738
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2005
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Strengthened Remainedthe same
Cannotsay Weakened
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
35
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 9. The impact of various factors on Finland's security
"How do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finland's security?"
61604424161413
23162613211344
53
18855
10
371
25223711
9131130353122
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
ChinaRussia
USANatoOSCE
The EUThe UN
Positivee�ect
Noe�ect
Cannotsay
Negativee�ect
Both positiveand negativee�ects
36
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 10. The impact of various factors on Finland's security
"How do you assess the impact of the following factors on Finland's security?"
616164777072
605857696059
443846555046
242621282323
162114257
11
1469
164
11
1387
1069
232722151820
162115131315
263325242429
131926211622
212633323533
131520191819
445554545150
542221
332221
181711101010
875663
553433
554532
10106875
311111
757465
122232
252521223228
221917112223
375028274034
111011111414
97
11597
131319122020
111116101314
302428222223
352833283331
312440333534
221722182223
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017ChinaAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017RussiaAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017USAAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017NatoAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017OSCEAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017The EUAutumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2016Autumn 2017The UN
Positivee�ect
Noe�ect
Cannotsay
Negativee�ect
Both positiveand negativee�ects
37
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 11. Factors a�ecting security
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
83
70
62
52
51
46
29
8
13
20
25
37
36
30
17
37
3
5
2
5
3
9
12
6
1
6
11
6
9
16
42
49
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
Increase of foreign ownershipin Finland's economy
Finland’s possible membership in Nato
Finland’s militarynon-alignment
The participationof Finnish troops in
crisis-management tasks
Finland’s economiccooperation increases
internationally
Finland’s membership in the EU
Finland participates in the commondefence of the EU
Finland's participation in Nordicdefence cooperation
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
38
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Figure 12. Factors a�ecting security (I)
837974757466
7062566153495269616469555954
62545054474553715863604956
131619202127
2024262531323122232322282130
2533353742413422342933353336
344333
57645554663443
22322222331221
124224
68
12101114124
1076
131613
11111179
12105566
139
11
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
52Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland’s membership in the EU
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland participates in the commondefence of the EU
Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland's participation in Nordicdefence cooperation
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
39
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Figure 13. Factors a�ecting security (II)
5248454539363952404948433837
5146404135161722212325262420
46453842353841413842454243
3739404046484037453741424447
3640414449534640424645483946
3030343145393433353034383643
55565655674464
34443456574352
97665786674563
6799
101016
6977
111213
910141113273132332426243232
1618232215171720212217151515
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
40Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland’s military non-alignmentAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
The participation of Finnish troops in crisis-management tasks*Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland’s economic cooperation increases internationally
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
*) 2004-2012 The participation of Finnish troops in crisismanagement tasks in war zones
40
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
"How do you assess the following phenomena and factors? How do they a�ect the security of Finland and Finns?"
Figure 14. Factors a�ecting security (III)
29
32
3537
32
24
2835
34
3437
31
36
37
8
7
77
5
89
5
8
1411
17
21
1820
31
31
2932
27
2323
30
27
24
37
4542
34
38
3637
35
33
3841
12
12
1110
6
8
107
8
105
8
6
4
6
75
5
4
55
5
6
35
42
36
3633
30
37
3327
32
3335
31
31
34
49
41
4654
53
5149
56
53
4543
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Increase of foreign ownership in Finland's economy
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Finland’s possible membership in Nato
Increasessecurity
Has noe�ect
Cannotsay
Lessenssecurity
41
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 15. The conduct of defence policy in Finland
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy been conducted in recent years?"
10
714
5105
15
1299
6
10
121310
128
11
1210171358
14
69
7465
73646971
667472
69
72
627074
677369
75667366786870
7
95
151064
867
10
6
1154
678
6324
1034
12
1014
714199
121013
14
11
131111
141011
5219
178
198
1
02
0112
110
1
1
301
110
1000024
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
42
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 16. The conduct of defence policy in Finland
"In your opinion, how well or how poorly has Finland’s defence policy been conducted in recent years?"
10764457
1010788
14
69726865656874667573757563
7655657545244
12141923221911181013141017
1222230111122
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Extremelywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlypoorly
Extremelypoorly
43
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 17. General conscription
81
8081
77717688
877774
84
74
767981
768188
81
75
97848477676769
9
99
101110
8
41115
5
11
1568
1011
5
10
9
278
17131614
1
21
1411
131
1
3
111
113
1
2
1000215
9
98
121414
4
81010
10
12
81410
1375
8
14
0886
181613
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
Hasn't done the military service
Has done/does the military service
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Retain thecurrent system
Reduce selectivelythe number of thosereceiving military training
Cannotsay
Abolish general conscriptionand change over to aprofessional army
"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age group receives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
44
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 18. General conscription
"Based on a general, compulsory military service for men, Finnish military defence provides military training for as many of the same age group as possible, thus producing a large reserve personnel. Should the current system be retained or should we change over to a selective conscript service where only a part of the same age groupreceives military training? Or should we change over to a professional army?"
817975756872636372747371787779807976
911131120172627161517191315119
1313
112212211111102213
99
101211999
111099878877
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Retain thecurrent system
Reduce selectivelythe number of thosereceiving military training
Cannotsay
Abolish general conscriptionand change over to aprofessional army
45
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 19. Finland's defence system
"In your view, should Finland's defence system be based on... "
6569
1611
1114
76
11
0 20 40 60 80 100
65
6663
57566570
696459
65
58
576863
576675
65
60
87687361415560
16
1518
20181317
161518
16
19
181119
201612
17
15
8141615281716
11
1110
161412
7
71314
9
10
1812
9
1311
7
11
13
256
17221212
7
78
71110
4
768
8
12
678
1064
6
11
112
568
1611
1
11
0111
121
2
0
121
112
1
1
2000101
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
%
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
Hasn't done the military service
Has done/does the military service
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
The current system with general conscription for menand voluntary military service for women
General conscription for both men and women
Voluntary military service for both men and women
A professional army Cannot say
46
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
12
1213
68
1514
141210
14
10
111214
141112
111318129
137
35
3238
36303337
354032
33
34
313136
314134
49424229231532
40
4138
38463540
403741
42
41
394739
403742
37353442485339
5
83
12853
565
6
5
444
376
0324715
6
65
66
103
33
11
3
7
1154
934
251
12111110
2
14
2322
322
2
3
413
322
1141267
Figure 20. Defence appropriations
"What is your opinion on funds allocated to the Defence Forces?"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Raisedsigni�cantly
Raisedsomewhat
Remain atpresent level
Cannotsay
Decreasedsomewhat
Decreasedsigni�cantly
47
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 21. Defence appropriations
"What is your opinion on funds allocated to the Defence Forces?"
474747563233273431273339443138293136444634262635292434313027141517333329263129263236333332324137384142423646564617
404142365152504550594947455953575652444449595250555850524851525843465047505049574948514849484243384141444842333855
54434333324123122232533333225232224456545335575
10127858437
12
8976
1412191817121412887
11101097
111218121415151517193124382012201813161315121214141312101211998889
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
In the year 1964In the year 1969In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1972In the year 1973In the year 1974In the year 1975In the year 1978In the year 1979In the year 1980In the year 1981In the year 1982In the year 1983In the year 1984In the year 1985December 1986
January 1986In the year 1987
April 1988December 1988
In the year 1989In the year 1990
April 1991October 1991
In the year 1992April 1993
October 1993May 1994
October 1994June 1995
November 1995In the year 1996In the year 1997
July 1998October 1998
November 1999December 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010
Spring 2011Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Should be raised Remain at present level Cannot say Should be decreased
48
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 22. The will to defend the nation
"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
72
6679
66667376
746972
74
75
676677
727075
81
66
73828068656763
6
102
5647
764
7
3
873
577
1
8
3317783
22
2519
29282317
192524
18
21
252620
232318
18
26
24151825282434Other parties
Left AllianceGreen League
Social Democratic P.Coalition Party
The FinnsCentre Party
Hasn't done themilitary service
Has done/does themilitary service
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Yes Cannot say No
49
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 23. The will to defend the nation
"If Finland were attacked, should Finns, in your opinion, take up arms to defend themselves in all situations, even if the outcome seemed uncertain?"
7271787671767674747277777780737879817575777676798077757770757467617368674342
6855456646435266547756455767577
1311688
127
2221161925191820222219201718221716141818181820151517191625191920282124254551
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
42In the year 1970In the year 1971In the year 1982In the year 1986In the year 1987In the year 1988In the year 1989In the year 1990
April 1991October 1991
In the year 1992In the year 1993In the year 1994
Autumn 1995Autumn 1996Autumn 1997
July 1998October 1998
June 1999November 1999December 2000
Autumn 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Yes Cannot say No
50
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 24. Why should Finland be defended
"Which of the following reasons are, in your view, so important that they justify armed defence of Finland, if necessary? Please state three the most important reasons"
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
8383
6074
4338
25
2515
2236
123
11
10
Autumn 2017 Autumn 2007
*) 2007 Finnish independence and sovereignty**) 2007 Religion
Some other reason
No reason
Freedom of religion**
Finnishness
Equality
Finnish education systemand welfare system
Finnish democracy
Territorial integrity
Finland's independence*
51
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 25. The will to defend the country (personal level)
"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"
87
8490
87899184
829191
89
91
839089
888587
92
87
839392889475
3
32
5123
332
3
3
242
243
2
3
2022224
10
138
810
713
1566
9
7
1568
101110
6
10
1576
104
2314
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
82Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
Hasn't done themilitary service
Has done/does themilitary service
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Yes Cannot say No
52
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 26. The will to defend the country (personal level)
Yes Cannot say No
"If Finland is attacked, would you personally be ready to take part in national defence tasks according to your competences and skills?"
November 1995In the year 1996In the year 1997
October 1998Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2017
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
878784858785848286
333335435
10111212101012149
53
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Can notsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
Figure 27. Military cooperation
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden, other Nordic countries, Nato and the European Union. What is your view on cooperation?"
Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
With the United States
Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
With Nato
Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
In the European Union
Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
With all Nordic countries
Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
With Sweden60525552
555050484740
352923242116
16171717109
1415
34423942
394444464651
545861626363
454341393936
4549
2322
232222
443324
766567
76
3244
324435
68
11101216
222727303336
2524
0110
000011
111111
106
109
1211
106
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
54
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 28. Military cooperation with Sweden
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Sweden. What is your view on cooperation?"
60
6060
48536166
546367
53
70
526067
685554
56517858717072
34
3632
44423428
383528
40
24
433628
283839
40392141282325
2
22
2222
212
2
2
121
124
4000101
3
15
5324
513
5
3
324
343
0922173
0
01
0000
100
0
0
000
010
0200000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
55
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 29. Military cooperation with all Nordic countries
"Finland conducts military cooperation with all Nordic countries. What is your view on cooperation?"
55
5457
42475861
475866
41
69
504861
615054
54377449674671
39
4137
54453933
454129
54
26
454535
364340
41542548314525
2
22
2422
312
2
2
321
124
4120101
3
24
1314
403
3
2
253
243
1802292
0
00
0000
000
0
0
000
000
0000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
56
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 30. Military cooperation in the European Union
"Finland conducts military cooperation with the European union. What is your view on cooperation?"
35
3238
33223440
273844
20
45
292940
442532
32145528451948
54
5950
61675945
575749
68
47
576451
476256
57644264516334
4
43
2533
522
5
3
432
146
6221132
6
58
363
10
1034
7
4
946
775
514083
1316
1
02
1101
111
0
1
111
121
1600020
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
57
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 31. Military cooperation with Nato
"Finland conducts military cooperation with Nato. What is your view on cooperation?"
16
1220
128
2019
141421
11
23
121121
201413
114
368
178
15
45
4247
49445239
375153
41
48
433650
415143
48455150543742
7
105
11866
965
10
6
793
58
10
9436534
22
2617
23311522
262414
26
18
283717
221826
24249
24183223
10
911
496
14
1467
12
6
1188
12108
8220
116
2017
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
58
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 32. Military cooperation with the United States
"Finland conducts military cooperation with the United States. What is your view on cooperation?"
14
1017
135
1516
131117
9
17
131017
151313
118
2913136
12
45
4347
43425442
384953
42
48
424049
444644
55484745513645
7
95
11647
795
9
5
743
678
7105614
25
2920
26332223
282520
26
24
253923
252424
21262324273622
10
911
8135
12
1466
14
6
1478
101011
6160
134
2216
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
Verypositive
Ratherpositive
Cannotsay
Rathernegative
Verynegative
59
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 33. A more secure or more insecure future
14
1018
16221610
151016
9
16
211513
198
13
15101617191212
25
2029
26162428
232627
21
24
232525
213023
28152223261732
1
11
2012
201
1
0
111
121
0002020
60
6852
56635861
606457
68
59
555960
585963
57756258556856
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Other partiesLeft Alliance
Green LeagueSocial Democratic P.
Coalition PartyThe Finns
Centre Party
East Finland/Oulu/LaplandWest Finland
South Finland
Over 35 000 €25 000-35 000 €
Under 25 000 €
Salaried emp./Self-emp./Management
Working class
UniversityPost-secondary
Lower education
50-79 years35-49 years25-34 years
Under 25 years
MenWomen
Whole population
SaferNo di�erenceto the present
Cannotsay
Lesssafe
"Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next �ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?"
60
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 34. A more secure or more insecure future
14131014202017272818242029173022263719262822221523181618151828291825
25272328363340303031293123402625242736473031264327213122282216222530
1111111112122123322224425577565457
60596556434642414049464746424251463342253943483944574653525451455238
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
May 1990October 1990
May 1991October 1991
April 1992November 1992
April 1993November 1993
May 1994October 1994
June 1995November 1995
Autumn 1996Autumn 1997
In the year 1998In the year 1999In the year 2000
Spring 2001Autumn 2002Autumn 2003Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
SaferNo di�erenceto the present
Cannotsay
Lesssafe
"Considering the present world situation as a whole, do you believe that during the next �ve years Finland and Finns will live in a safer or in a less safe world compared to the present?"
61
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 35. Factors causing concern among the citizens
46
43
31
37
28
31
32
26
9
29
22
18
27
21
27
25
31
11
13
8
37
38
44
35
43
38
36
41
56
35
42
46
36
42
35
37
30
41
36
35
0
0
0
2
0
1
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
2
0
3
4
4
14
16
18
20
25
22
25
24
26
27
26
26
26
29
26
29
27
35
36
40
2
2
7
5
4
7
6
8
7
7
7
8
8
6
11
8
11
10
11
13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Situation in Ukraine
Situation in Turkey
Development of theEuropean Union
Growth in the number ofimmigrants in Finland
Development in Russia
Number of asylumseekers in Finland
Threats, in other words cyberthreats against information
networks
Development in the United States
Security situation in theBaltic Sea area
Situation in Syria
Religious extremist movements
Economic outlook in Europe
Social inequality in Finland
Proliferation of weaponsof mass destruction
Racism
The employment situation in Finland
Politically extremist movements
Climate change (global warming)
International terrorism
The refugee situation in the world
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
62
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 36. Factors causing concern among the citizens (I)
4640
4335463224273237343951475050
3126302521211824373351323722
3735
3745
3840374238393533424138363536
4445423836383639394236414145
3539
01
01010001110010
01011000100000
22
1411
162014203024252317169
141111
1821202628273025151811221925
2019
23
24358976642242
778
1014141612772537
55
***) 2004-2015 Global warming
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Politically extremist movements
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Climate change (global warming)***
Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
International terrorismAutumn 2016Autumn 2017
The refugee situation in the world
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
63
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 37. Factors causing concern among the citizens (II)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
28434949423731303820
3131
3227343326293539252742353436
2627
9142624283538
43413837414344414345
3839
3637373535333432424037383842
4142
56615354535046
0100000110
11
22111101210110
13
2210010
25131011151521231527
2222
2527212329292422252618232321
2423
26181617161213
4332254548
78
67689885662343
86
7534334
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Economic outlook in EuropeAutumn 2016Autumn 2017
Social inequality in FinlandAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Proliferation of weapons of mass destructionAutumn 2016Autumn 2017
RacismAutumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
The employment situation in Finland
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
64
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 38. Factors causing concern among the citizens (III)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
29
25
37
26
22
35
33
18
17
18
19
27
21
18
19
21
13
18
20
22
23
24
27
20
37
35
37
33
36
42
38
39
33
28
46
47
36
42
42
43
42
37
36
39
38
42
45
35
41
34
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
4
1
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
27
26
22
24
26
19
21
32
36
26
24
26
29
28
26
26
35
30
31
29
25
24
26
29
20
7
10
8
11
7
6
5
14
14
8
8
8
6
9
9
9
12
13
9
9
9
5
11
10
8
**) 2008-2012 Cyber threats against information networks
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Number of asylum seekers in Finland
Autumn 2008
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2011
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2013
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Threats, in other words cyber threats against information networks**
Autumn 2017Development in the United States
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Security situation in the Baltic Sea area
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Situation in Syria
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Religious extremist movements
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
65
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 39. Factors causing concern among the citizens (IV)
"How would you assess the following phenomena and actors? To what extent do they make you worry about the future?"
2527263210131110121620191320
3124351313171419171214171816
11
1317
8161528
3745434332363639364048383842
3037323029252432292729312828
41
3640
35434146
22122222321112
01011111210110
3
42
4331
2919231838313432352924313529
2728233232313028303236323236
35
3633
40293319
8766
1818171714137
11126
1110102526273020222821192120
10
118
13985
*) 2013 The number of immigrants in Finland
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Situation in UkraineAutumn 2016Autumn 2017
Situation in TurkeyAutumn 2017
Development of the European UnionAutumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Growth in the number of immigrants in Finland*Autumn 2004Autumn 2005Autumn 2006Autumn 2007Autumn 2008Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2011Autumn 2012Autumn 2013Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Development in Russia
A lot To someextent
Cannotsay A little Not
at all
66
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 40. Preparedness for various threats
"How well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats?"
26
12
18
8
8
7
4
5
6
2
5
1
58
68
61
68
64
54
51
48
44
47
44
41
3
4
4
5
5
5
12
3
7
12
5
6
11
14
16
17
21
30
29
33
33
35
37
45
2
2
1
2
1
4
4
12
9
3
9
7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Financial crisis
International crime
Foreign economic pressure
Cyber attacks oninformation networks
Terrorism
Foreign political pressure
Global warming
Availability of energy
Armed attack
Various environmental threats(�oods, oil spills, transport of
hazardous substances)
Major accidents
Various infectious diseases, epidemics
Verywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlybadly
Verybadly
67
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 41. Preparedness for various threats (I)
"How well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats?"
2628252318172422
121311108
111313
1815151266
1012
865559
1012
5856596060626564
6867696566606966
6165626462546555
6864585754616362
34232111
44342321
44322222
55564462
119
101418178
12
1413141823241518
1615172127342028
1724283035232021
22312311
23321212
11313424
22323313
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Armed attack
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Various environmental threats (�oods, oil spills, transport of hazardous substances)
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Major accidents
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Various infectious diseases, epidemics
Verywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlybadly
Verybadly
68
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 42. Preparedness for various threats (II)
"How well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats?"
85548
121413
76444547
44435558
5654456
10
6460615264686465
5451495141444542
5148444947484251
4853485344505146
55542322
55655433
129987
11139
35556684
2127263624161818
3034363445414042
2934373637323528
3329333342343236
13442122
44665676
45644443
128
1065544
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Terrorism
Autumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Foreign political pressureAutumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Global warmingAutumn 2007Autumn 2009Autumn 2010Autumn 2012Autumn 2014Autumn 2015Autumn 2016Autumn 2017
Availability of energy
Verywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlybadly
Verybadly
69
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 43. Preparedness for various threats (III)
"How well do you think Finland has prepared for the following security threats?"
6
6
5
5
4
5
7
9
5
3
4
5
3
3
6
7
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
3
44
45
50
47
46
53
51
47
44
48
49
51
47
49
52
55
47
42
41
41
41
33
26
32
43
7
8
8
7
9
8
9
6
5
5
4
3
3
4
4
1
12
9
10
8
6
5
3
4
3
33
32
29
35
35
29
29
32
37
36
34
35
41
39
33
33
35
39
40
42
45
52
58
51
46
9
10
8
7
6
5
3
6
9
9
8
6
6
5
5
4
3
7
7
7
7
9
12
12
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Financial crisis
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Foreign economic pressure
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017International crime
Autumn 2007
Autumn 2009
Autumn 2010
Autumn 2012
Autumn 2014
Autumn 2015
Autumn 2016
Autumn 2017Cyber attacks on information networks
Verywell
Fairlywell
Cannotsay
Fairlybadly
Verybadly
70
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017 FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 44. Threat scenarios
"In your view, what kind of threats should Finland in the �rst place prepare for in the next decade?"
27
11
11
12
6
5
7
5
8
6
1
2
16
17
12
7
12
8
9
7
4
6
0
11
13
9
10
11
13
9
9
5
6
0
54
42
32
29
29
25
24
22
17
17
1
2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Cannot say
Something else
Russia's military measuresagainst Finland
Armed attack against Finland
Nuclear disaster in Finland or in itsneighbouring area
Armed con�ict in Finland'sneighbouring areas
Territorial crisis near Finland caused bysocial problems or a nuclear disaster
Damaging data transmission systemto paralyse society
Environmental catastrophe causedby global warming
Deep global crisis in the world economy
Increased organized crime
Terrorist act against Finland
The most signi�cant The second most signi�cant The third most signi�cant
71
FINNS`OPINIOS ON FOREING AND SECURITY POLICY, NATIONAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY
Figure 45. Threat scenarios
"In your view, what kind of threats should Finland in the �rst place prepare for in the next decade?"
2724
111219
111716
122618
656
589
744
577
822
633
111
211
1635
171919
121914
71110
1277
89
13
945
71010
422
633
000
1167
131514
91310
101010
111112
131414
945
91010
534
633
010
541115
424752
324841
294637
292225
253136
241214
222727
1768
1789
111
211
2005 and 2009 response options were: The most probable, The second most probable, The third most probable
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Cannot say
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Something else
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Russia's military
measures against Finland
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Armed attack against
Finland
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Nuclear disaster in Finland
or in its neighbouring area
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Armed con�ict in
Finland's neighbouring areas
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Territorial crisis near
Finland caused by social problems or a nuclear disaster
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Damaging data
transmission system to paralyse society
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Environmental
catastrophe caused by global warming
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Deep global crisis in the
world economy
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Increased organized crime
Autumn 2005Autumn 2009Autumn 2017Terrorist act
against Finland
The most signi�cant The second most signi�cant The third most signi�cant
72
ABDI BULLETINS AND REPORTS NOVEMBER, 2017
The Research Branch of ABDI in 2015–2019Chair Harriet Lonka, PhD
Deputy Chair Jan Koskimies, Parliamentary Secretary, until 29.9.2017
Unto Vesa, Researcher Emeritus, as of 23.10.2017
Members Soili Haverinen, Doctoral Student of Theology
Anna Jungner - Nordgren, Public Relations Secretary
Johanna Kelhu, Parliamentary Secretary, MSocSc
Mikko Kinnunen, Director of Unit
Marko Kivelä, Director, Public Relations and International Af-fairs Unit
Antti Koskela, Expert in Economic Affairs
Esko Kurvinen, CEO
Anni Lahtinen, Secretary General
Juha Mäenpää, Vocational Special Needs Teacher
Timo Perälä, Senior Inspector
Jussi Salonranta, Analyst
Jenna Simula, Parliamentary Assistant, BBA
Heli Viiri, Doctor of Agriculture and Forestry, Special Researcher
Branch-specific Teija Mankkinen, DSocSc, Head of Research and Development
Experts Teemu Tallberg, PhD, Professor of Military Sociology
Chairs of the ABDI Chair Sofia Vikman, MP
Deputy Chair Petteri Leino, Special Adviser to the Minister of Defence
Deputy Chair Markku Pakkanen, MP
Secretariat of the ABDI Heli Santala, Secretary General
Markus Kinkku, Assistant Secretary General
Advisory Board for Defence Information, ABDI (MTS in Finnish), is a permanent par-liamentary committee set up by the Government. Administratively it is in the Ministry of Defence.
ABDI conduct surveys on the opinions and attitudes of Finns regarding security policy and factors affecting them.
MTS
Ministry of DefenceBP 3100131 HELSINKI
www.defmin.fi/abdi